politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg’s big day
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Just found this...
23 May 2012
Single
Nick Clegg @ 8/1 (Next Party Leader To Leave Their Post)
Event: UK Politics0 -
At the risk of offering a hostage to fortune.
I don't think Clegg announces his resignation today.0 -
If someone does know, no one has told shadsy:
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Nick-Clegg-Leadership-Specials/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z141jtZ1z141ng/0 -
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......isam said:
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30sCarlottaVance said:
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........Alistair said:
Yes massively out performed most people's predictionsCarlottaVance said:
63% didn't vote for change.Alistair said:
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.CarlottaVance said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?malcolmg said:
You still making things upCarlottaVance said:
So says a 45er......malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.MonikerDiCanio said:
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.DavidL said:
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)MonikerDiCanio said:
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.DavidL said:
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
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If Clegg goes then will the Lib Dems lurch left?0
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Two 5-6 odds on a coin toss where the coin is already flipped but only a few can see the toss.0
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Literae Humaniores is the Classics degree at Oxford. You'd have loved it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, never even heard of that.
Clegg resigning would be weird. Might work.
Is the degree Boris.0 -
Also found some 4/1 on Ed Miliband from even further back. So if one or the other could oblige (bets are losers if they get to the election), I'd be grateful.0
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Mike on holiday. Check.
Mike betting on Clegg quitting. Check.
Feck. It is happening.0 -
I dunno. From over 6/1 to 2/1 seems like quite a big drop to me.anotherDave said:
Maybe mindless people are just assuming that Mr Hodges knows something.Casino_Royale said:
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.antifrank said:
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry.antifrank said:Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
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Cheers. Still not sure whether to take that or not.antifrank said:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1928676Casino_Royale said:
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.antifrank said:
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry.antifrank said:Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.0 -
I would just say that Lib Dems do have form on strange betting practices. Remember the odds on Chris Huhne winning the party leadership?0
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Hasn't Salmond already made that bet a loser?Tissue_Price said:Just found this...
23 May 2012
Single
Nick Clegg @ 8/1 (Next Party Leader To Leave Their Post)
Event: UK Politics0 -
Got £30 on at 5-1 before the market was suspended...antifrank said:If someone does know, no one has told shadsy:
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Nick-Clegg-Leadership-Specials/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z141jtZ1z141ng/
Pondering whether to take 1-3 at Paddy for him to stay as leader into next GE.0 -
CarlottaVance said:
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closerisam said:
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30sAlistair said:
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........CarlottaVance said:
Yes massively out performed most people's predictionsAlistair said:
63% didn't vote for change.CarlottaVance said:
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.malcolmg said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?CarlottaVance said:
You still making things upmalcolmg said:
So says a 45er......MonikerDiCanio said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.DavidL said:
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.MonikerDiCanio said:
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)DavidL said:MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be0 -
Even the BBC are at it:
Does Labour have an 'Ed Miliband problem'?
Speak to Labour activists in private, and it is rarely long before some will refer in one way or another to what one described to me as "the Ed Miliband problem".
His critics within the party articulate the concerns expressed by some voters in opinion polls and focus groups: that he doesn't appear sufficiently 'prime ministerial', and he hasn't set out a clear enough vision.
In short, they wonder if he's up to it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-295330790 -
Mr. Eagles, well, still plenty of time. Unless I get evicted from my semi-detached cardboard box and, like so many fantastic fellows, end up unappreciated and impoverished in my own lifetime.
*plays small violin*
Incidentally, I calculated the other day (when I should've been working, much as I should now) that next year I could have [theoretically] 20 different stories published (17 short, 2 mid-sized and 1 novel).
This Clegg situation could be very peculiar. Maybe he'll announce he'll resign after the election?0 -
I'm on Danny Alexander and Tim Farron to be the Lib Dem leader at the GE0
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Ho hum !0
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Well, if Nick Clegg does announce he's standing down today, I'm taking a bath.
What would be most annoying is that I have a bet with a Scots Nat that he'd outlast Alex Salmond. If that doesn't happen, I'll feel seriously pissed off.0 -
Edited for the greater good of Pulpstar's betting0
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Incidentally, do we have a date for the Rochester by-election?0
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Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.Morris_Dancer said:If Clegg goes then will the Lib Dems lurch left?
Plus depends who replaces him.0 -
isam said:
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.CarlottaVance said:
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closerisam said:
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30sAlistair said:
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........CarlottaVance said:
Yes massively out performed most people's predictionsAlistair said:
63% didn't vote for change.CarlottaVance said:
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.malcolmg said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?CarlottaVance said:
You still making things upmalcolmg said:
So says a 45er......MonikerDiCanio said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.DavidL said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:DavidL said:MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be0 -
It's the wording I'm worried about. What if he announces today he will stand down shortly *after* the election, and then they'll be a leadership election in the new parliament.
Unlikely, I know, but I want to know exactly what I'm betting on. Announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader and/or Deputy PM and actually doing it before the election are two different things.0 -
If he stands down today, he'd still be leader until they elected a new one. And the last Lib Dem leadership contest lasted two months from start to finish. So Salmond will be gone by then.antifrank said:Well, if Nick Clegg does announce he's standing down today, I'm taking a bath.
What would be most annoying is that I have a bet with a Scots Nat that he'd outlast Alex Salmond. If that doesn't happen, I'll feel seriously pissed off.0 -
*Cough*Tissue_Price said:
Stuff0 -
No, was only the big 3 parties quotedLennon said:
Hasn't Salmond already made that bet a loser?Tissue_Price said:Just found this...
23 May 2012
Single
Nick Clegg @ 8/1 (Next Party Leader To Leave Their Post)
Event: UK Politics0 -
Edited post !Tissue_Price said:
No, was only the big 3 parties quotedLennon said:
Hasn't Salmond already made that bet a loser?Tissue_Price said:Just found this...
23 May 2012
Single
Nick Clegg @ 8/1 (Next Party Leader To Leave Their Post)
Event: UK Politics
Any chance you could edit yours - you're right :O)0 -
Mr. Corporeal, if it is seen as a leftward shift, it might significantly help the Lib Dems, and harm Labour.
And if he does resign, I wonder if Cameron knows, and whether he (Cameron) might want an early election instead of a DPM who isn't Lib Dem leader.0 -
Not yet. I believe that the Tories were planning on waiting until Parliament was sitting again until they moved the writ. Obviously once Carswell is in then he could theoretically move the writ before they do.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, do we have a date for the Rochester by-election?
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Friends of The Earth may still be anti.anotherDave said:
Didn't Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth endorse nuclear?dr_spyn said:I wonder what this will do to The Green and LD votes?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29536793
---------------------------
From November 2013:
"...The polling and the speeches mean that it is already almost possible to sketch a picture of Mr Clegg’s dream voter. They are middle class (and able to afford green taxes), and rather metropolitan in their outlook. All Lib Dem MPs and strategists agree that these voters are the sort who fret about whether they are doing the recycling properly."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10433018/Nick-Clegg-is-playing-to-hismost-loyal-voters-the-green-middle-class.html
You can see why the LDs get so antsy about the Green Party.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/10/friends-of-the-earth-nuclear-power-bbc-report
Yet they still look both ways two days later.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/sep/12/friends-of-the-earths-shift-on-nuclear-should-be-celebrated-not-denied
Bunch of Janus faced...
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Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.0 -
Damn. Shadsy suspended the market seconds before I tried to place £20 on it!
Hesitation is fatal.0 -
I think a Tim Farron led LD party regains votes from LAB.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm on Danny Alexander and Tim Farron to be the Lib Dem leader at the GE
A Danny Alexander one does not
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^_~Tissue_Price said:Edited for the greater good of Pulpstar's betting
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He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.corporeal said:
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.Morris_Dancer said:If Clegg goes then will the Lib Dems lurch left?
Plus depends who replaces him.
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Cheers, Mr. Lennon.
Will the Pirate Party be contesting any seats in the General Election?0 -
JohnO said:
Stop trolling I never said it was closeisam said:
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.CarlottaVance said:
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closerisam said:
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30sAlistair said:
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........CarlottaVance said:
Yes massively out performed most people's predictionsAlistair said:
63% didn't vote for change.CarlottaVance said:
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.malcolmg said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?CarlottaVance said:
You still making things upmalcolmg said:
So says a 45er......MonikerDiCanio said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.DavidL said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:DavidL said:MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
Why be so partisan and smug, especially when you are wrong?0 -
The market states "a public announcement of his intention to step down as Liberal Democrat leader". This is very vague. Would saying e.g. "I won't be your leader in 2020" count? Given the rumours swirling, and the electoral logic of Clegg's going before the election, I'm not sure that 5/6 isn't about right all in.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.0 -
Perhaps several lib demmers on the inside have asked for a market? That's a pretty big clue.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.0 -
Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.0 -
Simply put forward.FrankBooth said:
He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.corporeal said:
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.Morris_Dancer said:If Clegg goes then will the Lib Dems lurch left?
Plus depends who replaces him.
As at previous conferences there's a resilient conference mood. And many older members reminding younger ones that they've been through worse.0 -
Fixed term parliaments will make an early election impossible. Can't see why Clegg would agree to it. In fact Labour might need to agree as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Corporeal, if it is seen as a leftward shift, it might significantly help the Lib Dems, and harm Labour.
And if he does resign, I wonder if Cameron knows, and whether he (Cameron) might want an early election instead of a DPM who isn't Lib Dem leader.0 -
Mr. Booth, no. More difficult, but not impossible.
And yes, both Lib Dems and Labour could stop it. And look frit in doing so.0 -
If the lower paid front line workers in the public sector had any brains then they wouldn't have been out protesting at the cuts, but rather at the greedy middle management hoovering up all the money and cutting the useful jobs and services rather than their own when the money runs out.Financier said:
I think it is not helpful to "value public spending" as an entity when we see so much waste and inefficiency every day from the public sector. For example it has been acknowledged on PB that the NHS is overmanaged but may be short of finance for operations, special drugs and care. So if a case is made for specific public sector spending then it can be supported, but there is often too much of let's cut the services whilst protecting our salaries, benefits and pensions.DavidL said:
I was referring to comments like this: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/07/vince-cable-slams-clegg-and-tory-leadership-says-bigger-tax-increases-needed-to-pay-down-deficit_n_5948626.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&ir=UKInnocent_Abroad said:
Vince Cable never had an inner socialist. Back in the 1970s, not only were we in the same Party: I was his Branch Secretary. Trust me. I know whereof I speak.DavidL said:FPT in relation to Damian McBride's comment about every leader needing fat men about him at some point:
I was nearly right:
"Let me have men about me that are fat;
Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o' nights:
Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look;
He thinks too much: such men are dangerous."
Ed does indeed have a problem with his lack of natural supporters in the party and his failure to build a team. One or two dodgy opinion polls and half the shadow cabinet seem to be on manoeuvres.
Nick, on the other hand, seems to have done well in keeping a team together under the most incredible pressure. The sangfroid of the Lib Dems under fire in this government has been remarkable. Every now and then Vince has to let out his inner socialist but other than that they have been incredibly disciplined. Not sure if it has done them any good but it is still impressive.
But of course the admission that not all public sector spending is 100% worthy is never aired in public for some unfathomable reason.0 -
At least Bercow will still be in post :-)antifrank said:
Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.0 -
Ah how nice it is to have a thread with prices, opinions and a genuine will he, won't he market.
What this site does best.0 -
You can run a small deficit in perpetuity, provided that the economy continues to grow. You can't run a perpetual deficit that leads to debt levels increasing as a share of GDP. There's a big difference between a deficit of 2% of GDP and one of 6% of GDP.BenM said:
Deficits can be run by governments in perpetuity. Look at post war history this is basically the case anyway.JBriskin said:
You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??BenM said:
Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.JBriskin said:
I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...BenM said:
Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.JBriskin said:
I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.BenM said:
Not in a mixed economy like ours.JBriskin said:[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending .
I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
This is UK government debt as a percentage of GDP. The three big peaks are the Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We're now seeing the largest increase in our national debt outside of a world war. It is simply impossible for us to continue in this way indefinitely.0 -
What time does Clegg give his resignation speech?
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It strikes me as rather sad that a party that was only 20% behind Labour's vote and had 2 voters for every 3 the Tories got would be so happy to be a minor party, but it's up to them I guess.corporeal said:
Simply put forward.FrankBooth said:
He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.corporeal said:
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.Morris_Dancer said:If Clegg goes then will the Lib Dems lurch left?
Plus depends who replaces him.
As at previous conferences there's a resilient conference mood. And many older members reminding younger ones that they've been through worse.0 -
If Clegg does resign, that might lead to a new leader getting a boost in the polls and performing slightly better in GE2015.
So, I might look at some of the secondary markets at Ladbrokes. The UKIP/Lib Dem vote match share looks interesting.
E.g. UKIP at 11% and Lib Dem at 12.5% would suddenly look do'able.0 -
How much did Paddy let you have on both ?antifrank said:
Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.0 -
I'm not defending the nuclear ban, but not sure this is true - see:Socrates said:
What an incredibly one-sided piece. I guess they're not saying how the nuclear ban means they're increasing coal-fired plants, causing far worse carbon emissions.Financier said:OT
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Well worth a read.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all
http://us.boell.org/sites/default/files/german-coal-conundrum.pdf
What they (and other people who have looked at this) say is happening is that there was an uptick in coal production from plants opening that had been under construction before Fukushima, and an increase in energy exports.0 -
Anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?0 -
Why would there be public clamour for an election? Blair continued for nearly a year after pre-announcing his resignation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, no. More difficult, but not impossible.
And yes, both Lib Dems and Labour could stop it. And look frit in doing so.
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@anotherDave
Greenpeace seem to be keen to block nuclear power if this is anything to go by.
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-10-08/greenpeace-claim-hinkley-power-station-will-go-ahead/0 -
Sorry, I seem to have walked in on something? Is Clegg resigning?0
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Mr. Booth, because we'd have a coalition government where the deputy PM wasn't even leader of a minor party. It'd be very odd (if that happens, it's possible the new leader would either just become DPM or a formal separation would occur).
Mr. Financier, consider also that some think the eurozone crisis will rear its ugly head again.0 -
Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.0
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His speech today is at 1pm.TheWatcher said:What time does Clegg give his resignation speech?
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He wouldn't need to resign immediately. I guess they'd have a new leader ready for the GE campaign. The leadership election might take a few months.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, because we'd have a coalition government where the deputy PM wasn't even leader of a minor party. It'd be very odd (if that happens, it's possible the new leader would either just become DPM or a formal separation would occur).
Mr. Financier, consider also that some think the eurozone crisis will rear its ugly head again.0 -
About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.Pulpstar said:
How much did Paddy let you have on both ?antifrank said:
Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.0 -
Breitbart say 6th November.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, do we have a date for the Rochester by-election?
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/05/Reckless-Ahead-In-Polls0 -
Yes. We won't join the Euro. They're probably worried about a hung parliament with no clear workable majority affecting the stability of the government and the value of the pound.Financier said:Anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
Or maybe not, and we're overthinking it.
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So if Clegg goes within a few months, who do we fancy then? Farron?*
*i've done no research on this0 -
Mr. Dave, cheers.
Mr. Booth, that's a fair point. I suppose by then it'd be almost academic as to whether the two parties had formally split or not.0 -
I'm going to be a twat and try and answer this. I'd just convert your quote at todays exchange rate.Financier said:Anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
Glad to be of service.
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If Clegg does resign, then what happens to the coalition? It has to separate surely.0
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Nick Clegg now at 1/5 to lead the party into the next election and 1/2 not to resign today with Paddy Power.0
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Mr. Slackbladder, that was my initial thought. Mr. Booth did point out that the leadership election could take a few months, though.0
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If he did resign, would that relieve or intensify the pressure on Miliband?0
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There's no such thing as a reliable crystal ball for exchange rates, but here goes:Financier said:Anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
1) The political risk of 2015 in the UK is substantial. An Ed M win would obviously be bad for sterling. A weak government in a hung-parliament would be bad for sterling. A Tory win might also not be great temporarily because of uncertainty over the referendum outcome (although this probably won't be a big effect in 2015, so for your purposes this may not matter).
2) In theory this is already factored in to forward rates, but my assessment is that the markets haven't woken up to the political risk yet.
3) However - this is a zero-sum game, and your alternative currency is Euros. Big uncertainty there too.
4) On balance, I think I'd prefer Euros for 2015, but:
5) I am probably wrong!
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Bookies market looking better for Clegg last few minutes with Paddy:antifrank said:
About the same on No and about £70 on the 1/3.Pulpstar said:
How much did Paddy let you have on both ?antifrank said:
Having reflected, I've doubled down, both by betting No on this bet and on betting at 1/3 that Nick Clegg will remain to the next election.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.
WILL NICK CLEGG ANNOUNCE HIS RESIGNATION TODAY?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Slackbladder, possibly as Lib Dem leader, perhaps not as deputy PM. The odds have tumbled to below evens.
No @ 1-2
Yes @ 6-4
WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?
Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
Yes 1/5
No 3/1
@Antifrank out the woods ?0 -
A better answer. If you were really worried about currency stability, why wouldn't you pick dollars rather than euros?Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no such thing as a reliable crystall ball for exchange rates, but here goes:Financier said:Anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
1) The political risk of 2015 in the UK is substantial. An Ed M win would obviously be bad for sterling. A weak hung-parliament would be bad for sterling. A Tory win might also not be great temporarily because of uncertainty over the referendum outcome (although this probably won't be a big effect in 2015, so for your purposes this may not matter).
2) In theory this is already factored in to forward rates, but my assessment is that the markets haven't woken up to the political risk yet.
3) However - this is a zero-sum game, and your alternative currency is Euros. Big uncertainty there too.
4) On balance, I think I'd prefer Euros for 2015, but:
5) I am probably wrong!
The UK leaving the EU (or uncertainty thereof) could lead to questions around the future stability of the EU as well, and by extension the euro.0 -
Was that fairly typical or are you sometimes right about the odd thing?malcolmg said:
I most certainly was among the 45% of voters who voted YES for Scotland to be an independent country.CarlottaVance said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?malcolmg said:
You still making things upCarlottaVance said:
So says a 45er......malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.MonikerDiCanio said:
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.DavidL said:
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)MonikerDiCanio said:
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.DavidL said:
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.0 -
I would choose dollars, given the choice. In fact I've tilted my pension portfolio towards dollar-denominated investments.Casino_Royale said:A better answer. If you were really worried about currency stability, why wouldn't you pick dollars rather than euros?
The UK leaving the EU (or uncertainty thereof) could lead to questions around the future stability of the EU as well, and by extension the euro.
However, for a commercial transaction between a UK supplier and Eurozone customer, the customer is not likely to want the exchange-rate risk and you'd also pay two sets of currency conversion costs, so it's not a realistic option.0 -
isam said:JohnO said:
You are such a poor sensitive soul. Your post made a reference to made reference "But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be". I responded by saying it wasn't close at all. So why do you take it personally?isam said:
Stop trolling I never said it was closeCarlottaVance said:
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.isam said:
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closerCarlottaVance said:Alistair said:
NCarlottaVance said:
Yes massively out performed most people's predictionsAlistair said:
63% didn't vote for change.CarlottaVance said:
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.malcolmg said:
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?CarlottaVance said:
You still making things upmalcolmg said:
So says a 45er......MonikerDiCanio said:
Ha Ha Ha , loser.DavidL said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:DavidL said:MonikerDiCanio said:Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
Why be so partisan and smug, especially when you are wrong?
Oh, and as it happens, I have been consistent in predicting a comfortable no vote (winning two modest bets here as a result), so I readily confess to a degree of smugness.0 -
@isam
You are such a poor sensitive soul. Your post made a reference to made reference "But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be". I simply responded by saying it wasn't close at all. So why do you take it so personally?
Oh, and as it happens, I have been consistent in predicting a comfortable no vote (winning two modest bets here as a result), so I readily confess to a degree of smugness.0 -
They can keep running deficits until they can no longer afford the interest payments followed by complete collapse.BenM said:
Deficits can be run by governments in perpetuity. Look at post war history this is basically the case anyway.JBriskin said:
You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??BenM said:
Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.JBriskin said:
I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...BenM said:
Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.JBriskin said:
I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.BenM said:
Not in a mixed economy like ours.JBriskin said:[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending .
I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
See Greece.0 -
Only in the sense that a stopped clock is occasionally right surely. Or one of those internet house price crash trolls who've been predicting a house price crash since 1996.logical_song said:
David Steel's much quoted speech '... prepare for Government.' did come to pass eventually.RochdalePioneers said:
”I will lead this party through the general election and beyond. Go back to your constituencies and prepare to lose your deposits".Fenman said:Clegg's big surprise?
'Well, I'm still here...'
If you are interested at all in what makes people fight, not fight, faff about, find ways to overcome humans' natural aversion to killing, i.e. switch from barbarity to civility and back, you would find Leo Murray's 'Bullets and Brains' a very good read. It is an analysis of the psychology of soldiering by someone who has done a lot of both. The combat anecdotes are so un-gung-ho they have had me sniggering on the Tube. The German MG42 crew who gave their gun a name - "Shouty" - treated it as a person and addressed each other in cod French accents was priceless.Morris_Dancer said:MIss Plato, ha, I wouldn't go that far.
I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.
It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
You have to love the way people who would presumably rail against insider dealing in financial markets are quite happy to steal money themselves from a bookie on the basis of MNPI.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps several lib demmers on the inside have asked for a market? That's a pretty big clue.Pong said:Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
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***NEW THREAD***0
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I'd say add to it. If the media thought they'd forced or pushed one scalp, they'd press for another. And there are plenty of willing vox pops in the wings dying to kill off EdM on the Labour side alone.
Not behaviour I'd approve of, but it does tend go that way.Morris_Dancer said:If he did resign, would that relieve or intensify the pressure on Miliband?
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LOL - Labour spending policy in a nutshellBenM said:
Deficits can be run by governments in perpetuity. Look at post war history this is basically the case anyway.JBriskin said:
You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??BenM said:
Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.JBriskin said:
I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...BenM said:
Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.JBriskin said:
I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.BenM said:
Not in a mixed economy like ours.JBriskin said:[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending .
I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?0 -
Another great forecast by Dan "The Anti Tipster" Hodges0
