Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......
Also found some 4/1 on Ed Miliband from even further back. So if one or the other could oblige (bets are losers if they get to the election), I'd be grateful.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
Maybe mindless people are just assuming that Mr Hodges knows something.
I dunno. From over 6/1 to 2/1 seems like quite a big drop to me.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closer
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
Does Labour have an 'Ed Miliband problem'? Speak to Labour activists in private, and it is rarely long before some will refer in one way or another to what one described to me as "the Ed Miliband problem".
His critics within the party articulate the concerns expressed by some voters in opinion polls and focus groups: that he doesn't appear sufficiently 'prime ministerial', and he hasn't set out a clear enough vision.
Mr. Eagles, well, still plenty of time. Unless I get evicted from my semi-detached cardboard box and, like so many fantastic fellows, end up unappreciated and impoverished in my own lifetime.
*plays small violin*
Incidentally, I calculated the other day (when I should've been working, much as I should now) that next year I could have [theoretically] 20 different stories published (17 short, 2 mid-sized and 1 novel).
This Clegg situation could be very peculiar. Maybe he'll announce he'll resign after the election?
Well, if Nick Clegg does announce he's standing down today, I'm taking a bath.
What would be most annoying is that I have a bet with a Scots Nat that he'd outlast Alex Salmond. If that doesn't happen, I'll feel seriously pissed off.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closer
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.
It's the wording I'm worried about. What if he announces today he will stand down shortly *after* the election, and then they'll be a leadership election in the new parliament.
Unlikely, I know, but I want to know exactly what I'm betting on. Announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader and/or Deputy PM and actually doing it before the election are two different things.
Well, if Nick Clegg does announce he's standing down today, I'm taking a bath.
What would be most annoying is that I have a bet with a Scots Nat that he'd outlast Alex Salmond. If that doesn't happen, I'll feel seriously pissed off.
If he stands down today, he'd still be leader until they elected a new one. And the last Lib Dem leadership contest lasted two months from start to finish. So Salmond will be gone by then.
Incidentally, do we have a date for the Rochester by-election?
Not yet. I believe that the Tories were planning on waiting until Parliament was sitting again until they moved the writ. Obviously once Carswell is in then he could theoretically move the writ before they do.
Didn't Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth endorse nuclear?
---------------------------
From November 2013:
"...The polling and the speeches mean that it is already almost possible to sketch a picture of Mr Clegg’s dream voter. They are middle class (and able to afford green taxes), and rather metropolitan in their outlook. All Lib Dem MPs and strategists agree that these voters are the sort who fret about whether they are doing the recycling properly."
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.
Plus depends who replaces him.
He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
There are myths and there is data. I think you'll find it was the 'No' posters who got closest - by a country mile - while the 'Yes' posters significantly over stated Yes support. But its easy to check......
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closer
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.
Stop trolling I never said it was close
Why be so partisan and smug, especially when you are wrong?
Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
The market states "a public announcement of his intention to step down as Liberal Democrat leader". This is very vague. Would saying e.g. "I won't be your leader in 2020" count? Given the rumours swirling, and the electoral logic of Clegg's going before the election, I'm not sure that 5/6 isn't about right all in.
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.
Plus depends who replaces him.
He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.
Simply put forward.
As at previous conferences there's a resilient conference mood. And many older members reminding younger ones that they've been through worse.
FPT in relation to Damian McBride's comment about every leader needing fat men about him at some point:
I was nearly right:
"Let me have men about me that are fat; Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o' nights: Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous."
Ed does indeed have a problem with his lack of natural supporters in the party and his failure to build a team. One or two dodgy opinion polls and half the shadow cabinet seem to be on manoeuvres.
Nick, on the other hand, seems to have done well in keeping a team together under the most incredible pressure. The sangfroid of the Lib Dems under fire in this government has been remarkable. Every now and then Vince has to let out his inner socialist but other than that they have been incredibly disciplined. Not sure if it has done them any good but it is still impressive.
Vince Cable never had an inner socialist. Back in the 1970s, not only were we in the same Party: I was his Branch Secretary. Trust me. I know whereof I speak.
I think it is not helpful to "value public spending" as an entity when we see so much waste and inefficiency every day from the public sector. For example it has been acknowledged on PB that the NHS is overmanaged but may be short of finance for operations, special drugs and care. So if a case is made for specific public sector spending then it can be supported, but there is often too much of let's cut the services whilst protecting our salaries, benefits and pensions.
If the lower paid front line workers in the public sector had any brains then they wouldn't have been out protesting at the cuts, but rather at the greedy middle management hoovering up all the money and cutting the useful jobs and services rather than their own when the money runs out.
But of course the admission that not all public sector spending is 100% worthy is never aired in public for some unfathomable reason.
[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending .
Not in a mixed economy like ours.
I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.
Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.
I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...
Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.
You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??
Deficits can be run by governments in perpetuity. Look at post war history this is basically the case anyway.
You can run a small deficit in perpetuity, provided that the economy continues to grow. You can't run a perpetual deficit that leads to debt levels increasing as a share of GDP. There's a big difference between a deficit of 2% of GDP and one of 6% of GDP.
This is UK government debt as a percentage of GDP. The three big peaks are the Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We're now seeing the largest increase in our national debt outside of a world war. It is simply impossible for us to continue in this way indefinitely.
Not really, remember how much power conference delegates have in voting on party policy. Very much limits any lurch.
Plus depends who replaces him.
He's also lost a lot of the left-leaning members anyway. Cable and Farron might be a bit more palatable to the electorate but I can't really see where they go from here. They've boxed themselves into a corner.
Simply put forward.
As at previous conferences there's a resilient conference mood. And many older members reminding younger ones that they've been through worse.
It strikes me as rather sad that a party that was only 20% behind Labour's vote and had 2 voters for every 3 the Tories got would be so happy to be a minor party, but it's up to them I guess.
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
What an incredibly one-sided piece. I guess they're not saying how the nuclear ban means they're increasing coal-fired plants, causing far worse carbon emissions.
What they (and other people who have looked at this) say is happening is that there was an uptick in coal production from plants opening that had been under construction before Fukushima, and an increase in energy exports.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
Mr. Booth, because we'd have a coalition government where the deputy PM wasn't even leader of a minor party. It'd be very odd (if that happens, it's possible the new leader would either just become DPM or a formal separation would occur).
Mr. Financier, consider also that some think the eurozone crisis will rear its ugly head again.
Mr. Booth, because we'd have a coalition government where the deputy PM wasn't even leader of a minor party. It'd be very odd (if that happens, it's possible the new leader would either just become DPM or a formal separation would occur).
Mr. Financier, consider also that some think the eurozone crisis will rear its ugly head again.
He wouldn't need to resign immediately. I guess they'd have a new leader ready for the GE campaign. The leadership election might take a few months.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
Yes. We won't join the Euro. They're probably worried about a hung parliament with no clear workable majority affecting the stability of the government and the value of the pound.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
I'm going to be a twat and try and answer this. I'd just convert your quote at todays exchange rate.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
There's no such thing as a reliable crystal ball for exchange rates, but here goes:
1) The political risk of 2015 in the UK is substantial. An Ed M win would obviously be bad for sterling. A weak government in a hung-parliament would be bad for sterling. A Tory win might also not be great temporarily because of uncertainty over the referendum outcome (although this probably won't be a big effect in 2015, so for your purposes this may not matter).
2) In theory this is already factored in to forward rates, but my assessment is that the markets haven't woken up to the political risk yet.
3) However - this is a zero-sum game, and your alternative currency is Euros. Big uncertainty there too.
4) On balance, I think I'd prefer Euros for 2015, but:
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
There's no such thing as a reliable crystall ball for exchange rates, but here goes:
1) The political risk of 2015 in the UK is substantial. An Ed M win would obviously be bad for sterling. A weak hung-parliament would be bad for sterling. A Tory win might also not be great temporarily because of uncertainty over the referendum outcome (although this probably won't be a big effect in 2015, so for your purposes this may not matter).
2) In theory this is already factored in to forward rates, but my assessment is that the markets haven't woken up to the political risk yet.
3) However - this is a zero-sum game, and your alternative currency is Euros. Big uncertainty there too.
4) On balance, I think I'd prefer Euros for 2015, but:
5) I am probably wrong!
A better answer. If you were really worried about currency stability, why wouldn't you pick dollars rather than euros?
The UK leaving the EU (or uncertainty thereof) could lead to questions around the future stability of the EU as well, and by extension the euro.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
I most certainly was among the 45% of voters who voted YES for Scotland to be an independent country.
Was that fairly typical or are you sometimes right about the odd thing?
A better answer. If you were really worried about currency stability, why wouldn't you pick dollars rather than euros?
The UK leaving the EU (or uncertainty thereof) could lead to questions around the future stability of the EU as well, and by extension the euro.
I would choose dollars, given the choice. In fact I've tilted my pension portfolio towards dollar-denominated investments.
However, for a commercial transaction between a UK supplier and Eurozone customer, the customer is not likely to want the exchange-rate risk and you'd also pay two sets of currency conversion costs, so it's not a realistic option.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
N
I am not talking about the PB tipping contest a week before the event, but the year leading up to it where most well thought of Nay sayers were predicting a score in the mid 30s, and mocking those who suggested it might be a lot closer
I was neither a YESSER or a NOER but an impartial observer, so don't be thinking I am trying to make a partisan point. I also didn't make a prediction, so am not trying to back that up
But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be
I don't think many people would regard a margin of 10.6% as close.
Stop trolling I never said it was close
Why be so partisan and smug, especially when you are wrong?
You are such a poor sensitive soul. Your post made a reference to made reference "But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be". I responded by saying it wasn't close at all. So why do you take it personally?
Oh, and as it happens, I have been consistent in predicting a comfortable no vote (winning two modest bets here as a result), so I readily confess to a degree of smugness.
You are such a poor sensitive soul. Your post made a reference to made reference "But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be". I simply responded by saying it wasn't close at all. So why do you take it so personally?
Oh, and as it happens, I have been consistent in predicting a comfortable no vote (winning two modest bets here as a result), so I readily confess to a degree of smugness.
”I will lead this party through the general election and beyond. Go back to your constituencies and prepare to lose your deposits".
David Steel's much quoted speech '... prepare for Government.' did come to pass eventually.
Only in the sense that a stopped clock is occasionally right surely. Or one of those internet house price crash trolls who've been predicting a house price crash since 1996.
I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.
It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
If you are interested at all in what makes people fight, not fight, faff about, find ways to overcome humans' natural aversion to killing, i.e. switch from barbarity to civility and back, you would find Leo Murray's 'Bullets and Brains' a very good read. It is an analysis of the psychology of soldiering by someone who has done a lot of both. The combat anecdotes are so un-gung-ho they have had me sniggering on the Tube. The German MG42 crew who gave their gun a name - "Shouty" - treated it as a person and addressed each other in cod French accents was priceless.
Paddy Power is being silly. They don't know anything that we don't know.
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
Perhaps several lib demmers on the inside have asked for a market? That's a pretty big clue.
You have to love the way people who would presumably rail against insider dealing in financial markets are quite happy to steal money themselves from a bookie on the basis of MNPI.
I'd say add to it. If the media thought they'd forced or pushed one scalp, they'd press for another. And there are plenty of willing vox pops in the wings dying to kill off EdM on the Labour side alone.
Not behaviour I'd approve of, but it does tend go that way.
Comments
23 May 2012
Single
Nick Clegg @ 8/1 (Next Party Leader To Leave Their Post)
Event: UK Politics
I don't think Clegg announces his resignation today.
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Nick-Clegg-Leadership-Specials/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z141jtZ1z141ng/
Is the degree Boris.
Mike betting on Clegg quitting. Check.
Feck. It is happening.
Pondering whether to take 1-3 at Paddy for him to stay as leader into next GE.
Does Labour have an 'Ed Miliband problem'?
Speak to Labour activists in private, and it is rarely long before some will refer in one way or another to what one described to me as "the Ed Miliband problem".
His critics within the party articulate the concerns expressed by some voters in opinion polls and focus groups: that he doesn't appear sufficiently 'prime ministerial', and he hasn't set out a clear enough vision.
In short, they wonder if he's up to it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29533079
*plays small violin*
Incidentally, I calculated the other day (when I should've been working, much as I should now) that next year I could have [theoretically] 20 different stories published (17 short, 2 mid-sized and 1 novel).
This Clegg situation could be very peculiar. Maybe he'll announce he'll resign after the election?
What would be most annoying is that I have a bet with a Scots Nat that he'd outlast Alex Salmond. If that doesn't happen, I'll feel seriously pissed off.
Plus depends who replaces him.
Unlikely, I know, but I want to know exactly what I'm betting on. Announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader and/or Deputy PM and actually doing it before the election are two different things.
Any chance you could edit yours - you're right :O)
And if he does resign, I wonder if Cameron knows, and whether he (Cameron) might want an early election instead of a DPM who isn't Lib Dem leader.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/10/friends-of-the-earth-nuclear-power-bbc-report
Yet they still look both ways two days later.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/sep/12/friends-of-the-earths-shift-on-nuclear-should-be-celebrated-not-denied
Bunch of Janus faced...
5/6 on Clegg not announcing his resignation today is great value.
Hesitation is fatal.
A Danny Alexander one does not
Will the Pirate Party be contesting any seats in the General Election?
I have a nasty feeling I'm going to look very silly very shortly.
As at previous conferences there's a resilient conference mood. And many older members reminding younger ones that they've been through worse.
And yes, both Lib Dems and Labour could stop it. And look frit in doing so.
But of course the admission that not all public sector spending is 100% worthy is never aired in public for some unfathomable reason.
What this site does best.
This is UK government debt as a percentage of GDP. The three big peaks are the Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We're now seeing the largest increase in our national debt outside of a world war. It is simply impossible for us to continue in this way indefinitely.
So, I might look at some of the secondary markets at Ladbrokes. The UKIP/Lib Dem vote match share looks interesting.
E.g. UKIP at 11% and Lib Dem at 12.5% would suddenly look do'able.
£11.72 for me on the "No", and I could have had £141 on the 1-3.
http://us.boell.org/sites/default/files/german-coal-conundrum.pdf
What they (and other people who have looked at this) say is happening is that there was an uptick in coal production from plants opening that had been under construction before Fukushima, and an increase in energy exports.
Just been promised a major contract for 2015, but client wants our GB£ quote in Euros. Invoicing will be spread over the whole year. Any view on what will happen if EdM or DC wins in May?
Greenpeace seem to be keen to block nuclear power if this is anything to go by.
http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2014-10-08/greenpeace-claim-hinkley-power-station-will-go-ahead/
9th May 2015 ; )
Mr. Financier, consider also that some think the eurozone crisis will rear its ugly head again.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/05/Reckless-Ahead-In-Polls
Or maybe not, and we're overthinking it.
*i've done no research on this
Mr. Booth, that's a fair point. I suppose by then it'd be almost academic as to whether the two parties had formally split or not.
Glad to be of service.
1) The political risk of 2015 in the UK is substantial. An Ed M win would obviously be bad for sterling. A weak government in a hung-parliament would be bad for sterling. A Tory win might also not be great temporarily because of uncertainty over the referendum outcome (although this probably won't be a big effect in 2015, so for your purposes this may not matter).
2) In theory this is already factored in to forward rates, but my assessment is that the markets haven't woken up to the political risk yet.
3) However - this is a zero-sum game, and your alternative currency is Euros. Big uncertainty there too.
4) On balance, I think I'd prefer Euros for 2015, but:
5) I am probably wrong!
No @ 1-2
Yes @ 6-4
WILL NICK CLEGG LEAD LIB DEMS INTO NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?
Singles Only. Applies to the party's leader on the date of the next general election.
Yes 1/5
No 3/1
@Antifrank out the woods ?
The UK leaving the EU (or uncertainty thereof) could lead to questions around the future stability of the EU as well, and by extension the euro.
However, for a commercial transaction between a UK supplier and Eurozone customer, the customer is not likely to want the exchange-rate risk and you'd also pay two sets of currency conversion costs, so it's not a realistic option.
You are such a poor sensitive soul. Your post made a reference to made reference "But the YES posters were more accurate in their assessment of how close it would be". I simply responded by saying it wasn't close at all. So why do you take it so personally?
Oh, and as it happens, I have been consistent in predicting a comfortable no vote (winning two modest bets here as a result), so I readily confess to a degree of smugness.
See Greece.
If you are interested at all in what makes people fight, not fight, faff about, find ways to overcome humans' natural aversion to killing, i.e. switch from barbarity to civility and back, you would find Leo Murray's 'Bullets and Brains' a very good read. It is an analysis of the psychology of soldiering by someone who has done a lot of both. The combat anecdotes are so un-gung-ho they have had me sniggering on the Tube. The German MG42 crew who gave their gun a name - "Shouty" - treated it as a person and addressed each other in cod French accents was priceless. You have to love the way people who would presumably rail against insider dealing in financial markets are quite happy to steal money themselves from a bookie on the basis of MNPI.
Not behaviour I'd approve of, but it does tend go that way.