Paying down the debt irks me. Like write-downs. It's paying off, and write-offs.
I believe the Lib Dems have consistently been against an English Parliament. If they propose devolution I would guess city-region bullshit and a Cornish Assembly likelier.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
I most certainly was among the 45% of voters who voted YES for Scotland to be an independent country.
[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending so I think your quasi formula is a little simplistic. I admit that I'm very poor at third sector analysis.
Mr J , it is borrowing that pays for public services, hence we are £1.5 trillion at minimum up sh*t creek
I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.
"The Who Cares? question was about the LibDems and their relevance! It was not a dig at TSE and the interest of the thread. It is a key question - are the LibDems still relevant in British politics or are they on the way out?"
If I had taken the trouble to get up at 6 o' clock on a rain sodden Yorkshire morning to pose a question for the delectation of PB readers I'd be slightly disappointed not to arouse a more interested response than "Who Cares?"
Patrick/Roger - Don't worry about it.
FYI - Mike takes over early hours of Friday.
I do worry a bit though. I was having a go at the LibDems not you and Roger is shit-stirring deliberately. Anyway - let us leave it there. You are the somewhat unsung hero of PB!
You've both expressed today, your appreciation of my stint as Guest Editor.
[There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]
Private spending pays for the public spending so I think your quasi formula is a little simplistic. I admit that I'm very poor at third sector analysis.
Mr J , it is borrowing that pays for public services, hence we are £1.5 trillion at minimum up sh*t creek
Not all of it - I'm sure the tax money isn't just getting spent on interest payments.
My first thought is that it looks horrendous. Recent racing has been great pretty much everywhere, but when the tyres aren't crumbly cheese and we don't have such wide engine differences a circuit of crappy fiddly bits and right angles galore *cough*Russia*cough* won't be good.
I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.
So the LDs have concluded that people should pay 40% tax on unearned income?
How outrageous!
On CGT, there was previous a distinction between 'business assets' and 'non-business assets', but Brown (wrongly in my opinion), removed all of that in favour of a lower level of CGT for all, along with 'Entrepreneurs relief' for business owners.
I personally would re-introduce the different classes of assets for CGT.
"That may be because its leader has finally cast aside obeisance to the Tories, returning instead to the values of Mill and Locke. Though careful not to rule out being a Conservative adjunct once again, Mr Clegg this week set himself up as the friend of the poor, a doughty pro-European and champion of human rights."
The big sore thumb sticking out there is the "pro-European" bit. There's nothing about the values of Mill and Locke in the European Union. 19th Century liberals fought hard for every nation having their own state, as they knew well that multinational states like the Habsburg Empire inevitably oppressed the constituent peoples. The EU spends half its cash on agricultural subsidies, puts up trade barriers around the outside, has rampant unchecked corruption and Byzantine undemocratic power structure. If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
FPT in relation to Damian McBride's comment about every leader needing fat men about him at some point:
I was nearly right:
"Let me have men about me that are fat; Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o' nights: Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous."
Ed does indeed have a problem with his lack of natural supporters in the party and his failure to build a team. One or two dodgy opinion polls and half the shadow cabinet seem to be on manoeuvres.
Nick, on the other hand, seems to have done well in keeping a team together under the most incredible pressure. The sangfroid of the Lib Dems under fire in this government has been remarkable. Every now and then Vince has to let out his inner socialist but other than that they have been incredibly disciplined. Not sure if it has done them any good but it is still impressive.
Vince Cable never had an inner socialist. Back in the 1970s, not only were we in the same Party: I was his Branch Secretary. Trust me. I know whereof I speak.
So what does account for his envy, spite and malice?
Bullied at school, was always Tom Wolfe's theory as to why journalists are such spiteful lefties.
I don’t think there’s ever been any secret that Vince was in the Labour Party at one time, and IIRC was a Labour councillor for a while.
Hey, that’s what liberals are! Ideology? Economics? Social justice? Those are nothing but their prom outfits. Their politics were set for life in the schoolyard at age six. They were the weak, and forever after they resented the strong. That’s why so many journalists are liberals! The very same schoolyard events that pushed them toward the written word … pushed them toward “liberalism.”
Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)
This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.
The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.
I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.
Local paper in Exeter reported recently - around the time of Rupert Everett's documentary she was in - that she had moved to London because her profession was not respected in Exeter, so I don't think she's a former sex worker
Scot Rail will soon be state run! Unfortunately it will be the Dutch state. (I wonder if they will paint the trains orange?)
Most franchises are state run by German Dutch and French governments, thus proving correct the Tory adage that governments can't run anything competitively.
Anyway, the trains are already in Scotrail livery (or being repainted into it) and that won't change, just removing the small "operated by First" stickers and replacing them with different ones. The Scotrail franchise isn't a franchise, just a concession, where the operator runs services to a strict criteria on behalf of the government.
Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)
This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.
The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.
I don't think anything Daniel Finkelstein wrote could be ever be classified as excellent. Done untold damage to the Conservatives party and now trying to do the same for UKIP. Perhaps he can return home to the SDP.
If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.
That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband
"If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?
Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.
.. multinational states like the Habsburg Empire inevitably oppressed the constituent peoples. The EU spends half its cash on agricultural subsidies, puts up trade barriers around the outside, has rampant unchecked corruption and Byzantine undemocratic power structure.
We are not too far away in agreement, but around here there has been very few/no cuts in the public sector staffing, but there has been a rush to close schools, libraries, leisure centres, country buses, reduce road repairs, recycling centres etc.
In general, the UK has avoided the complete root and branch cuts that Ireland did (probably the Coalition would not wear it), but at the same time have avoided looking at ways that things could be done differently, better and at a lower cost.
For example is parts of Europe, parents have to buy their child's text books each year, there are no bin collections but waste/recycling silos every 100 metres street-side that are changed daily and children start school at 8.30 and finish at 4.30.
In other European countries there is no working tax credit and no child benefit after the first year - how much money would that save? Unemployment benefits end after 18months. Also OAP benefits are taxable if your income is too high.
Our problem is that GB etc have given away too many sweeties and there will be shrieks if they are taken away
Or cut International Development Aid. To zero if necessary.
If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.
That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
Yet they're happy to continue handing over powers to what the EU currently is, rather than what they wish it would be. And they never speak out about corruption, or lack of democracy, or the agricultural subsidies being half its budget, and all the other illiberal parts of it. That's not intellectually consistent at all.
Not really, it's the Ruble price that matters. The European people certainly seem to be paying the price for their politicians prioritizing US interests over their own people's, if the current slowdown continues then the Eurozone crisis will flare up again.
Good to see LibDems big announcement will be on NHS and mental health services. This is Norman Lamb at work behind the scenes I suspect. As someone who undertakes voluntary work with the "Time to Change" campaign this is brilliant news, especially if it becomes a red line in any coalition agreement.
He'll have to say where the money is coming from though.
I have to say that this work by the Lib Dems is really excellent. There are a number of changes on the mental health front which the Lib Dems have pushed through which are an improvement and I give them a lot of credit for it.
If - as R4 were reporting this morning - Clegg highlights it in his speech, good for him!
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
Moniker £100 at even money says Labour will get more than 25%.
Put up or shut up.
You're sounding like Tim, actually worse, and it's not very pleasant.
Moniker is entitled to suggest something about Labour's vote share without that sort of boorish behaviour.
It's a political betting site. If people aren't willing to back up their predictions with money then their predictions are a load of cock and they are wasting electricity.
Had he been an Olympic sprinter, Tim Farron would have been called back to the blocks for an outrageous false start. But he is a politician – el presidente of the Lib Dems, no less – so he made a blatant bid for the party leadership, even though Nick Clegg is still in situ for at least the next seven months.
‘There is nobody but you and me to provide a genuine alternative,’ he told the conference.
Nobody but him to provide an alternative to Labour and the Tories? What about Cleggy? What about Danny Alexander and Vince Cable and that Ed Davey fellow who did an animatedly windy turn yesterday?
The sheer rudeness – self-absorption – of Mr Farron’s claim was magnificent. His speech might as well have been dubbed ‘pre-leadership election broadcast’.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
@LadPolitics: Odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader before the general election cut from 6/1 to 5/1
He is going nowhere.
Anyway the best way to bet on this is (If you think he might) is not this bet I reckon, but sell Labour/back UKIP at Heywood and Middleton.
My Dad also reckons Rochster and Strood may well be a proxy for Lab/Con most seats at the GE (UKIP win = Labour, Con win = Con most seats) - I think that could well be correct.
@LadPolitics: Odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader before the general election cut from 6/1 to 5/1
He is going nowhere.
Anyway the best way to bet on this is (If you think he might) is not this bet I reckon, but sell Labour/back UKIP at Heywood and Middleton.
My Dad also reckons Rochster and Strood may well be a proxy for Lab/Con most seats at the GE (UKIP win = Labour, Con win = Con most seats) - I think that could well be correct.
The upcoming by elections are interesting.
James Kirkup says Labour are making zero effort in Rochester. (I've no idea if that's true)
If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.
That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
Yet they're happy to continue handing over powers to what the EU currently is, rather than what they wish it would be. And they never speak out about corruption, or lack of democracy, or the agricultural subsidies being half its budget, and all the other illiberal parts of it. That's not intellectually consistent at all.
Not often I would quote anything from Peter Hitchens. From his article in the Mail;
"Some will say that Mr Miliband is not especially impressive . I tend to agree. But if we are going to make this a personal matter, in terms of being ‘not up to it’ is he any worse than the man who:
Helped to create a failed state in Libya?
Reshuffled his cabinet on the instructions of an image-maker?
Has managed to menace press freedom by setting up the Leveson inquiry? Hired Andy Coulson for a key Downing Street job, against the advance of many?
Broke royal confidentiality so that he could show off to the mayor of New York?
Was one of the greediest claimers of (lawful) expenses in the entire House of Commons despite being extremely well-off?"
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband
"If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?
Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.
Not often I agree with Peter Hitchens. From his article in the Mail;
"Some will say that Mr Miliband is not especially impressive . I tend to agree. But if we are going to make this a personal matter, in terms of being ‘not up to it’ is he any worse than the man who:
Made Tory MPs applaud Anthony Blair on the day he left politics?
Helped to create a failed state in Libya?
Reshuffled his cabinet on the instructions of an image-maker?
Hasn’t managed to publish the Chilcot report on Iraq? Has managed to menace press freedom by setting up the Leveson inquiry? Hired Andy Coulson for a key Downing Street job, against the advance of many?
Broke royal confidentiality so that he could show off to the mayor of New York?
Dismissed UKIP?
Refuses to reveal the truth about his past drug use?
Never had any ministerial experience before he became Prime Minister Was one of the greediest claimers of (lawful) expenses in the entire House of Commons despite being extremely well-off?"
Miliband's anti-Murdoch/pro Leveson stance has made sure that he has a great deal of enemies in the press
Also alot of the Westminster village commentators are Blairites and they, seem to simply not like Ed Miliband.
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
A number of nuclear power plants are offline, hence the numbers. Boiler problems with 2 (Heysham and Hartlepool) take out 25% of all nuclear, and cracks in the graphite core of another
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
What an incredibly one-sided piece. I guess they're not saying how the nuclear ban means they're increasing coal-fired plants, causing far worse carbon emissions.
Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband
"If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?
Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.
Trying to discredit Ed Miliband is rather like kicking at an open door!
Does anyone expect anything different from Crosby?
2005 is the only ever GE I haven't voted Conservative, there was something about the campaigning when he was in charge that really rubbed me up the wrong way that time.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
There was a great bet a bout a year ago "Nick Clegg to leave as Lib Dem leader before 1st Jan 2016" 8/11 I think with Hills
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
53% didn't vote for the Union.
We can play the language games all day.
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions (with 2 months to go I was predicting Yes 35 No 65 so it shows what I know). The attempts to play semantic games to try and make it look like No did better than it did on what should have been a slam dunk of a campaign is getting old fast.
Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)
This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.
The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions.
Can only repeat what I said yesterday. Dan Hodges has read the signs and Clegg is going. It's not likely but don't rule it out.
What if Clegg announced he was going after the GE? Would that underming his party as "leaderless" or lance the boil?
I guess he would continue as Deputy PM until the election whilst they elect another leader. I've nothing to go on other that Hodges' argument, but it does make some sense. Why has there been no attempt at an anti-Clegg putsch? Why is he so relaxed again? He may want his party to recover at the election and feel only a new leader can do that. 5 years of abuse may be quit enough. The post-2015 environment doesn't look very appealing. There are plenty of reasons he might call it quits. Does he even want to stand in Hallam?
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
The problem with Wind (and I say this as a big supporter to Wind power who'd like to see a lot more turbines go up) is not how much power they can generate but the reliability of output (of course a lot more turbines spread over the country helps with reliability but you can still get days where the whole country is becalmed). Wind is tricky to use for baseload due to this unreliability and it doesn't have the responsiveness of hydro. Hydro is fantastic for both base load and peaking demand but we are reaching our limit of viable hydro locations.
There needs to be a solution to storing Wind power, there's no wher near enough pumped storage and there isn't really the scope to build much more. Once their is a viable option for storage then Wind becomes much more tasty.
I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.
It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.
In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:
I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.
It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
The problem with Wind (and I say this as a big supporter to Wind power who'd like to see a lot more turbines go up) is not how much power they can generate but the reliability of output (of course a lot more turbines spread over the country helps with reliability but you can still get days where the whole country is becalmed). Wind is tricky to use for baseload due to this unreliability and it doesn't have the responsiveness of hydro. Hydro is fantastic for both base load and peaking demand but we are reaching our limit of viable hydro locations.
There needs to be a solution to storing Wind power, there's no wher near enough pumped storage and there isn't really the scope to build much more. Once their is a viable option for storage then Wind becomes much more tasty.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.
In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Didn't Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth endorse nuclear?
---------------------------
From November 2013:
"...The polling and the speeches mean that it is already almost possible to sketch a picture of Mr Clegg’s dream voter. They are middle class (and able to afford green taxes), and rather metropolitan in their outlook. All Lib Dem MPs and strategists agree that these voters are the sort who fret about whether they are doing the recycling properly."
HaveIGotNewsForYou @haveigotnews · 9m9 minutes ago By-election latest. Gordon Brown offers Clacton full devolution and tax-raising powers if they say no to UKIP.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
£20 at 1-2 on all 3 leaders to stay is my only bet involving Clegg (In this capacity) I think...
Have a fair bit more on Dave and Ed to remain in post.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Dan Hodges says so. Was I the only one on pb who suggested it (not boasting or anything).
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
I have to say that I dream about more interesting things.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
The fact that Nick Clegg is 1/16 to be remain the Lib Dem leader at the next general election given i) his personal ratings ii) the party’s ratings, tells you that the Lib Dems are backing their man, the question is will the country?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
I have to say that I dream about more interesting things.
When you edit PB, trust me, you end up dreaming about politics more than you'd like to.
The parallels drawn with the Independence Referendum suggest that turnout in 2015 could be a fair bit higher than in recent general elections. In 2010 turnout was 65.1%, the highest since 71.3% in 1997 and 77.7% in 1992 (which was the highest turnout since February 1974).
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
5-6 ?!
That sounds extraordinarily short. Unless it's going to happen... ?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Buffoon Carmichael was on Scottish tv the other night saying no Libdem leader has gone into a GE in a more secure position than Clegg: also ominous.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
Maybe mindless people are just assuming that Mr Hodges knows something.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
No Clegg liabilities it seems in the Paddy account
Do have this bet however
15/07/2014 Single To Win No @ 1/4 UKIP Special Will UKIP win a by-election before the next general election? Pending £64.12
Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.
I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)
It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.
Ha Ha Ha , loser.
So says a 45er......
You still making things up
If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
63% didn't vote for change.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.
In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:
David Cameron is Stanley Baldwin and I claim my five pounds.
Interesting. My feeling is that young people are as disillusioned, or more so, than/as ever and to an extent it's the older groups who will decide the election if they split as decisively as this. The other thing to watch for are any big gender differences. My sense is that UKIP have a problem with women ...
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
Don't worry.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
5-6 ?!
That sounds extraordinarily short. Unless it's going to happen... ?
Are they offering 5/6 he doesn't?
EDIT: I see that they are... That seems extraordinary doesn't it?
Comments
I believe the Lib Dems have consistently been against an English Parliament. If they propose devolution I would guess city-region bullshit and a Cornish Assembly likelier.
I'll take that. So don't worry.
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2014/10/16459.html
The picture's top right.
My first thought is that it looks horrendous. Recent racing has been great pretty much everywhere, but when the tyres aren't crumbly cheese and we don't have such wide engine differences a circuit of crappy fiddly bits and right angles galore *cough*Russia*cough* won't be good.
I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
Admittedly, the level of debate about classical history would markedly improve, but nobody's perfect.
Unfortunately it will be the Dutch state.
(I wonder if they will paint the trains orange?)
I personally would re-introduce the different classes of assets for CGT.
"That may be because its leader has finally cast aside obeisance to the Tories, returning instead to the values of Mill and Locke. Though careful not to rule out being a Conservative adjunct once again, Mr Clegg this week set himself up as the friend of the poor, a doughty pro-European and champion of human rights."
The big sore thumb sticking out there is the "pro-European" bit. There's nothing about the values of Mill and Locke in the European Union. 19th Century liberals fought hard for every nation having their own state, as they knew well that multinational states like the Habsburg Empire inevitably oppressed the constituent peoples. The EU spends half its cash on agricultural subsidies, puts up trade barriers around the outside, has rampant unchecked corruption and Byzantine undemocratic power structure. If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
And for confirmation
Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era
This probably reflects the dominance of the five-per-week YouGov and twice-per-week Populus polls in the wikipedia graph.
Pump prices being lower is good news for the Gov't anyway.
Anyway, the trains are already in Scotrail livery (or being repainted into it) and that won't change, just removing the small "operated by First" stickers and replacing them with different ones. The Scotrail franchise isn't a franchise, just a concession, where the operator runs services to a strict criteria on behalf of the government.
And for confirmation
Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era
I don't think anything Daniel Finkelstein wrote could be ever be classified as excellent. Done untold damage to the Conservatives party and now trying to do the same for UKIP. Perhaps he can return home to the SDP.
That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
"If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?
Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.
http://ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/tag/BUNDGpB81Nm6B883fyAABW3lnB/doc.html?t_params=REMOVE=rm-0b9gsk37bfeu7z5auzduaubysb634z7%40email.conservatives.com"
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Or cut International Development Aid. To zero if necessary.
Except the elite won´t wear it.
If - as R4 were reporting this morning - Clegg highlights it in his speech, good for him!
Anyway the best way to bet on this is (If you think he might) is not this bet I reckon, but sell Labour/back UKIP at Heywood and Middleton.
My Dad also reckons Rochster and Strood may well be a proxy for Lab/Con most seats at the GE (UKIP win = Labour, Con win = Con most seats) - I think that could well be correct.
The upcoming by elections are interesting.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/telegraphwire/2014/10/08/rochester-by-election-labour-is-throwing-the-fight-deliberately-and-sensibly/
Not often I would quote anything from Peter Hitchens. From his article in the Mail;
"Some will say that Mr Miliband is not especially impressive . I tend to agree. But if we are going to make this a personal matter, in terms of being ‘not up to it’ is he any worse than the man who:
Helped to create a failed state in Libya?
Reshuffled his cabinet on the instructions of an image-maker?
Has managed to menace press freedom by setting up the Leveson inquiry?
Hired Andy Coulson for a key Downing Street job, against the advance of many?
Broke royal confidentiality so that he could show off to the mayor of New York?
Was one of the greediest claimers of (lawful) expenses in the entire House of Commons despite being extremely well-off?"
"It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."
Well worth a read.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all
Does anyone expect anything different from Crosby?
Also alot of the Westminster village commentators are Blairites and they, seem to simply not like Ed Miliband.
It may not be fair but it is the reality.
When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
I mentioned it, didnt back it though
Anyone on?
Interesting footnote from Lib Dem conference: I'm told they tried to persuade Rory Stewart to defect.
Herbivores in pursuit of unconvincing carnivore.
We can play the language games all day.
Yes massively out performed most people's predictions (with 2 months to go I was predicting Yes 35 No 65 so it shows what I know). The attempts to play semantic games to try and make it look like No did better than it did on what should have been a slam dunk of a campaign is getting old fast.
I expect to see much spluttering from Boudicca in the comments - as ever. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4229927.ece
And for confirmation
Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era
Your knowledge is encyclopaedic.
There needs to be a solution to storing Wind power, there's no wher near enough pumped storage and there isn't really the scope to build much more. Once their is a viable option for storage then Wind becomes much more tasty.
I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.
It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:
Con 47%, Lab 25%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 5%, Greens 3%.
David Cameron is Stanley Baldwin and I claim my five pounds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29536793
Thanks to Blair, most of the UK's nuclear engineers had no work for many years.
http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/breakthrough-grid-scale-renewable-energy-storage-battery-made-gravel.html
Probably one of the best possibilities is a Liqid Metal Battery (See this lecture from 2012) for more info http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway_the_missing_link_to_renewable_energy?language=en
Lab/Green is 28%
Has the generational divide ever been this big?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1
---------------------------
From November 2013:
"...The polling and the speeches mean that it is already almost possible to sketch a picture of Mr Clegg’s dream voter. They are middle class (and able to afford green taxes), and rather metropolitan in their outlook. All Lib Dem MPs and strategists agree that these voters are the sort who fret about whether they are doing the recycling properly."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10433018/Nick-Clegg-is-playing-to-hismost-loyal-voters-the-green-middle-class.html
You can see why the LDs get so antsy about the Green Party.
By-election latest. Gordon Brown offers Clacton full devolution and tax-raising powers if they say no to UKIP.
Have a fair bit more on Dave and Ed to remain in post.
He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
The parallels drawn with the Independence Referendum suggest that turnout in 2015 could be a fair bit higher than in recent general elections. In 2010 turnout was 65.1%, the highest since 71.3% in 1997 and 77.7% in 1992 (which was the highest turnout since February 1974).
And the next election being like the Hunger Games although that was more a dream about Jennifer Lawrence
That sounds extraordinarily short. Unless it's going to happen... ?
Clegg resigning would be weird. Might work.
Do have this bet however
15/07/2014 Single To Win No @ 1/4
UKIP Special
Will UKIP win a by-election before the next general election? Pending £64.12
Oops !
EDIT: I see that they are... That seems extraordinary doesn't it?