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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg’s big day

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Paying down the debt irks me. Like write-downs. It's paying off, and write-offs.

    I believe the Lib Dems have consistently been against an English Parliament. If they propose devolution I would guess city-region bullshit and a Cornish Assembly likelier.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    I most certainly was among the 45% of voters who voted YES for Scotland to be an independent country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending so I think your quasi formula is a little simplistic. I admit that I'm very poor at third sector analysis.

    Mr J , it is borrowing that pays for public services, hence we are £1.5 trillion at minimum up sh*t creek
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    Betting post. Because sex sells. So had a nibble

    I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Clacton-By-election/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z13ybcZ1z141ng/

    I thought she was still “practicing” but taking time out for the campaign.
    Quite a long piece about her here http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co.uk/Exeter-sex-worker-Charlotte-Rose-stand-parliament/story-22937831-detail/story.html

    Apparently she used to be a “conventional” teacher!
    I was erring on the side of caution, 'cause I didn't want to google "escort called Charlotte Rose" on a work laptop.
    Charlotte Rose, Clacton candidate?
  • Patrick said:

    Roger said:

    Patrick

    "The Who Cares? question was about the LibDems and their relevance! It was not a dig at TSE and the interest of the thread. It is a key question - are the LibDems still relevant in British politics or are they on the way out?"

    If I had taken the trouble to get up at 6 o' clock on a rain sodden Yorkshire morning to pose a question for the delectation of PB readers I'd be slightly disappointed not to arouse a more interested response than "Who Cares?"

    Patrick/Roger - Don't worry about it.

    FYI - Mike takes over early hours of Friday.
    I do worry a bit though. I was having a go at the LibDems not you and Roger is shit-stirring deliberately. Anyway - let us leave it there. You are the somewhat unsung hero of PB!
    You've both expressed today, your appreciation of my stint as Guest Editor.

    I'll take that. So don't worry.
  • Fenman said:

    Clegg's big surprise?

    'Well, I'm still here...'

    ”I will lead this party through the general election and beyond. Go back to your constituencies and prepare to lose your deposits".

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    malcolmg said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending so I think your quasi formula is a little simplistic. I admit that I'm very poor at third sector analysis.

    Mr J , it is borrowing that pays for public services, hence we are £1.5 trillion at minimum up sh*t creek
    Not all of it - I'm sure the tax money isn't just getting spent on interest payments.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: the Baku street circuit layout for Azerbaijan (2016) has been revealed:
    http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2014/10/16459.html

    The picture's top right.

    My first thought is that it looks horrendous. Recent racing has been great pretty much everywhere, but when the tyres aren't crumbly cheese and we don't have such wide engine differences a circuit of crappy fiddly bits and right angles galore *cough*Russia*cough* won't be good.
  • Betting post. Because sex sells. So had a nibble

    I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Clacton-By-election/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z13ybcZ1z141ng/

    I thought she was still “practicing” but taking time out for the campaign.
    Quite a long piece about her here http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co.uk/Exeter-sex-worker-Charlotte-Rose-stand-parliament/story-22937831-detail/story.html

    Apparently she used to be a “conventional” teacher!
    I was erring on the side of caution, 'cause I didn't want to google "escort called Charlotte Rose" on a work laptop.
    Charlotte Rose, Clacton candidate?
    Yeah, that would have been the obvious thing to do.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending .

    Not in a mixed economy like ours.
    I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.

    Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.

    I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, without you the site would lose its foremost punmeister.

    Admittedly, the level of debate about classical history would markedly improve, but nobody's perfect.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending .

    Not in a mixed economy like ours.
    I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.

    Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.

    I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
    I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Scot Rail will soon be state run!
    Unfortunately it will be the Dutch state.
    (I wonder if they will paint the trains orange?)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Fenman said:

    So the LDs have concluded that people should pay 40% tax on unearned income?

    How outrageous!

    On CGT, there was previous a distinction between 'business assets' and 'non-business assets', but Brown (wrongly in my opinion), removed all of that in favour of a lower level of CGT for all, along with 'Entrepreneurs relief' for business owners.

    I personally would re-introduce the different classes of assets for CGT.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    From that Telegraph piece:

    "That may be because its leader has finally cast aside obeisance to the Tories, returning instead to the values of Mill and Locke. Though careful not to rule out being a Conservative adjunct once again, Mr Clegg this week set himself up as the friend of the poor, a doughty pro-European and champion of human rights."

    The big sore thumb sticking out there is the "pro-European" bit. There's nothing about the values of Mill and Locke in the European Union. 19th Century liberals fought hard for every nation having their own state, as they knew well that multinational states like the Habsburg Empire inevitably oppressed the constituent peoples. The EU spends half its cash on agricultural subsidies, puts up trade barriers around the outside, has rampant unchecked corruption and Byzantine undemocratic power structure. If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Financier said:

    OT

    Brent Crude dips below $91.

    Squeezing Putin.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Poll over @GeneralElection.Will the next government last 5 years?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    FalseFlag said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT in relation to Damian McBride's comment about every leader needing fat men about him at some point:

    I was nearly right:

    "Let me have men about me that are fat;
    Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o' nights:
    Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look;
    He thinks too much: such men are dangerous."

    Ed does indeed have a problem with his lack of natural supporters in the party and his failure to build a team. One or two dodgy opinion polls and half the shadow cabinet seem to be on manoeuvres.

    Nick, on the other hand, seems to have done well in keeping a team together under the most incredible pressure. The sangfroid of the Lib Dems under fire in this government has been remarkable. Every now and then Vince has to let out his inner socialist but other than that they have been incredibly disciplined. Not sure if it has done them any good but it is still impressive.

    Vince Cable never had an inner socialist. Back in the 1970s, not only were we in the same Party: I was his Branch Secretary. Trust me. I know whereof I speak.
    So what does account for his envy, spite and malice?
    Bullied at school, was always Tom Wolfe's theory as to why journalists are such spiteful lefties.
    I don’t think there’s ever been any secret that Vince was in the Labour Party at one time, and IIRC was a Labour councillor for a while.
    Hey, that’s what liberals are! Ideology? Economics? Social justice? Those are nothing but their prom outfits. Their politics were set for life in the schoolyard at age six. They were the weak, and forever after they resented the strong. That’s why so many journalists are liberals! The very same schoolyard events that pushed them toward the written word … pushed them toward “liberalism.”
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Fenman said:

    Clegg's big surprise?

    'Well, I'm still here...'

    ”I will lead this party through the general election and beyond. Go back to your constituencies and prepare to lose your deposits".

    David Steel's much quoted speech '... prepare for Government.' did come to pass eventually.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)
    This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.

    The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.

    Yet also, ridiculous.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4229927.ece

    And for confirmation

    Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era

    http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Betting post. Because sex sells. So had a nibble

    I've just found out that the former sex worker Charlotte Rose is standing as a candidate in the Clacton by-election, and Shadsy is offering 25/1 on her beating the Lib Dems.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Clacton-By-election/Politics-N-1z141maZ1z13ybcZ1z141ng/

    Local paper in Exeter reported recently - around the time of Rupert Everett's documentary she was in - that she had moved to London because her profession was not respected in Exeter, so I don't think she's a former sex worker

    .
    If Bus Pass Elvis can do it,25-1 is a fair price.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It is very similar to the graph on wikipedia, except that the University folk have Labour and Conservative a couple of percentage points lower each.

    This probably reflects the dominance of the five-per-week YouGov and twice-per-week Populus polls in the wikipedia graph.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014

    Financier said:

    OT

    Brent Crude dips below $91.

    Squeezing Putin.
    I lose a bet if it's below £50 at year end here. I make it £57 a barrel right now. WTI - Brent gap at $4 is very low right now.

    Pump prices being lower is good news for the Gov't anyway.
  • Mr. Eagles, without you the site would lose its foremost punmeister.

    Admittedly, the level of debate about classical history would markedly improve, but nobody's perfect.

    Don't make me go all battle of Ipsus on you.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Can only repeat what I said yesterday. Dan Hodges has read the signs and Clegg is going. It's not likely but don't rule it out.
  • Smarmeron said:

    Scot Rail will soon be state run!
    Unfortunately it will be the Dutch state.
    (I wonder if they will paint the trains orange?)

    Most franchises are state run by German Dutch and French governments, thus proving correct the Tory adage that governments can't run anything competitively.

    Anyway, the trains are already in Scotrail livery (or being repainted into it) and that won't change, just removing the small "operated by First" stickers and replacing them with different ones. The Scotrail franchise isn't a franchise, just a concession, where the operator runs services to a strict criteria on behalf of the government.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Smarmeron said:

    Scot Rail will soon be state run!
    Unfortunately it will be the Dutch state.
    (I wonder if they will paint the trains orange?)

    That might work if it's part of an advertising tie-in with Irn-Bru.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, you do have something of Demetrius Poliorcetes about you...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending .

    Not in a mixed economy like ours.
    I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.

    Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.

    I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
    I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...

    Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending .

    Not in a mixed economy like ours.
    I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.

    Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.

    I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
    I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...

    Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.
    You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Scott_P said:

    Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)

    This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.

    The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.

    Yet also, ridiculous.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4229927.ece

    And for confirmation

    Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era

    http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era

    I don't think anything Daniel Finkelstein wrote could be ever be classified as excellent. Done untold damage to the Conservatives party and now trying to do the same for UKIP. Perhaps he can return home to the SDP.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.

    I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.

    That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband

    "If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?

    Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.

    http://ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/tag/BUNDGpB81Nm6B883fyAABW3lnB/doc.html?t_params=REMOVE=rm-0b9gsk37bfeu7z5auzduaubysb634z7%40email.conservatives.com"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Socrates said:

    .. multinational states like the Habsburg Empire inevitably oppressed the constituent peoples. The EU spends half its cash on agricultural subsidies, puts up trade barriers around the outside, has rampant unchecked corruption and Byzantine undemocratic power structure.

    sounds quite similar to the USA
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader before the general election cut from 6/1 to 5/1
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Financier said:


    @DavidL

    We are not too far away in agreement, but around here there has been very few/no cuts in the public sector staffing, but there has been a rush to close schools, libraries, leisure centres, country buses, reduce road repairs, recycling centres etc.

    In general, the UK has avoided the complete root and branch cuts that Ireland did (probably the Coalition would not wear it), but at the same time have avoided looking at ways that things could be done differently, better and at a lower cost.

    For example is parts of Europe, parents have to buy their child's text books each year, there are no bin collections but waste/recycling silos every 100 metres street-side that are changed daily and children start school at 8.30 and finish at 4.30.

    In other European countries there is no working tax credit and no child benefit after the first year - how much money would that save? Unemployment benefits end after 18months. Also OAP benefits are taxable if your income is too high.

    Our problem is that GB etc have given away too many sweeties and there will be shrieks if they are taken away


    Or cut International Development Aid. To zero if necessary.

    Except the elite won´t wear it.
  • Mr. Eagles, you do have something of Demetrius Poliorcetes about you...

    When it comes to comparing me to people from Macedon, it is clear I'm more like Alexander the Third.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.

    I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.

    That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
    Yet they're happy to continue handing over powers to what the EU currently is, rather than what they wish it would be. And they never speak out about corruption, or lack of democracy, or the agricultural subsidies being half its budget, and all the other illiberal parts of it. That's not intellectually consistent at all.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Financier said:

    OT

    Brent Crude dips below $91.

    Squeezing Putin.
    Not really, it's the Ruble price that matters. The European people certainly seem to be paying the price for their politicians prioritizing US interests over their own people's, if the current slowdown continues then the Eurozone crisis will flare up again.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Good to see LibDems big announcement will be on NHS and mental health services. This is Norman Lamb at work behind the scenes I suspect. As someone who undertakes voluntary work with the "Time to Change" campaign this is brilliant news, especially if it becomes a red line in any coalition agreement.

    He'll have to say where the money is coming from though.

    I have to say that this work by the Lib Dems is really excellent. There are a number of changes on the mental health front which the Lib Dems have pushed through which are an improvement and I give them a lot of credit for it.

    If - as R4 were reporting this morning - Clegg highlights it in his speech, good for him!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Moniker

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    Moniker £100 at even money says Labour will get more than 25%.

    Put up or shut up.
    You're sounding like Tim, actually worse, and it's not very pleasant.

    Moniker is entitled to suggest something about Labour's vote share without that sort of boorish behaviour.
    It's a political betting site. If people aren't willing to back up their predictions with money then their predictions are a load of cock and they are wasting electricity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, have you been drinking?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Quentin Letts in typical cutting style
    Had he been an Olympic sprinter, Tim Farron would have been called back to the blocks for an outrageous false start. But he is a politician – el presidente of the Lib Dems, no less – so he made a blatant bid for the party leadership, even though Nick Clegg is still in situ for at least the next seven months.

    ‘There is nobody but you and me to provide a genuine alternative,’ he told the conference.

    Nobody but him to provide an alternative to Labour and the Tories? What about Cleggy? What about Danny Alexander and Vince Cable and that Ed Davey fellow who did an animatedly windy turn yesterday?

    The sheer rudeness – self-absorption – of Mr Farron’s claim was magnificent. His speech might as well have been dubbed ‘pre-leadership election broadcast’.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2784305/Farron-mouth-And-s-unusually-big-QUENTIN-LETTS-blatant-bid-leadership.html#ixzz3FXlagROA
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader before the general election cut from 6/1 to 5/1

    He is going nowhere.

    Anyway the best way to bet on this is (If you think he might) is not this bet I reckon, but sell Labour/back UKIP at Heywood and Middleton.

    My Dad also reckons Rochster and Strood may well be a proxy for Lab/Con most seats at the GE (UKIP win = Labour, Con win = Con most seats) - I think that could well be correct.

    The upcoming by elections are interesting.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader before the general election cut from 6/1 to 5/1

    He is going nowhere.

    Anyway the best way to bet on this is (If you think he might) is not this bet I reckon, but sell Labour/back UKIP at Heywood and Middleton.

    My Dad also reckons Rochster and Strood may well be a proxy for Lab/Con most seats at the GE (UKIP win = Labour, Con win = Con most seats) - I think that could well be correct.

    The upcoming by elections are interesting.
    James Kirkup says Labour are making zero effort in Rochester. (I've no idea if that's true)

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/telegraphwire/2014/10/08/rochester-by-election-labour-is-throwing-the-fight-deliberately-and-sensibly/
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    If the Liberal Democrats want to be an intellectually consistent party of democracy, individual liberty, free markets and localism, then they have to stop looking at the EU through rose-tinted glasses.

    I think the Lib Dems would generally like to see the EU become a properly constituted federal state, with democratic elections for the executive, rather than the indirect system used now where it is haggled out by the heads of government of member states.

    That seems reasonably intellectually consistent to me.
    Yet they're happy to continue handing over powers to what the EU currently is, rather than what they wish it would be. And they never speak out about corruption, or lack of democracy, or the agricultural subsidies being half its budget, and all the other illiberal parts of it. That's not intellectually consistent at all.
    Yes, that's a fair criticism.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited October 2014
    Isam.

    Not often I would quote anything from Peter Hitchens. From his article in the Mail;

    "Some will say that Mr Miliband is not especially impressive . I tend to agree. But if we are going to make this a personal matter, in terms of being ‘not up to it’ is he any worse than the man who:

    Helped to create a failed state in Libya?

    Reshuffled his cabinet on the instructions of an image-maker?

    Has managed to menace press freedom by setting up the Leveson inquiry?
    Hired Andy Coulson for a key Downing Street job, against the advance of many?

    Broke royal confidentiality so that he could show off to the mayor of New York?

    Was one of the greediest claimers of (lawful) expenses in the entire House of Commons despite being extremely well-off?"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Some very heavy rain for Clacton this morning, but tomorrow looks like being largely dry and sunny, for what that is worth.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband

    "If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?

    Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.

    http://ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/tag/BUNDGpB81Nm6B883fyAABW3lnB/doc.html?t_params=REMOVE=rm-0b9gsk37bfeu7z5auzduaubysb634z7%40email.conservatives.com"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    Trying to discredit Ed Miliband is rather like kicking at an open door!

    Does anyone expect anything different from Crosby?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    Roger said:

    Isam.

    Not often I agree with Peter Hitchens. From his article in the Mail;

    "Some will say that Mr Miliband is not especially impressive . I tend to agree. But if we are going to make this a personal matter, in terms of being ‘not up to it’ is he any worse than the man who:

    Made Tory MPs applaud Anthony Blair on the day he left politics?

    Helped to create a failed state in Libya?

    Reshuffled his cabinet on the instructions of an image-maker?

    Hasn’t managed to publish the Chilcot report on Iraq?
    Has managed to menace press freedom by setting up the Leveson inquiry?
    Hired Andy Coulson for a key Downing Street job, against the advance of many?

    Broke royal confidentiality so that he could show off to the mayor of New York?

    Dismissed UKIP?

    Refuses to reveal the truth about his past drug use?

    Never had any ministerial experience before he became Prime Minister
    Was one of the greediest claimers of (lawful) expenses in the entire House of Commons despite being extremely well-off?"

    Miliband's anti-Murdoch/pro Leveson stance has made sure that he has a great deal of enemies in the press

    Also alot of the Westminster village commentators are Blairites and they, seem to simply not like Ed Miliband.

    It may not be fair but it is the reality.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Financier said:

    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all

    Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ed certainly gave them all a tonne of ammunition with his conference speech however...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014

    Financier said:

    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all

    Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
    A number of nuclear power plants are offline, hence the numbers. Boiler problems with 2 (Heysham and Hartlepool) take out 25% of all nuclear, and cracks in the graphite core of another
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Financier said:

    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all

    What an incredibly one-sided piece. I guess they're not saying how the nuclear ban means they're increasing coal-fired plants, causing far worse carbon emissions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014

    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens on the Tories trying to discredit Ed Miliband

    "If you see articles in the newspapers, or hear items on other media, saying that Ed Miliband is ‘not up to it’, do you ever wonder who so many people use the same phrase, or where it comes from?

    Here’s a hint. This e-mail was sent to me, and presumably to scores of other political journalists, by the Tory Party.

    http://ebm.cheetahmail.com/c/tag/BUNDGpB81Nm6B883fyAABW3lnB/doc.html?t_params=REMOVE=rm-0b9gsk37bfeu7z5auzduaubysb634z7%40email.conservatives.com"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    Trying to discredit Ed Miliband is rather like kicking at an open door!

    Does anyone expect anything different from Crosby?
    2005 is the only ever GE I haven't voted Conservative, there was something about the campaigning when he was in charge that really rubbed me up the wrong way that time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    There was a great bet a bout a year ago "Nick Clegg to leave as Lib Dem leader before 1st Jan 2016" 8/11 I think with Hills

    I mentioned it, didnt back it though

    Anyone on?
  • George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 10 mins10 minutes ago
    Interesting footnote from Lib Dem conference: I'm told they tried to persuade Rory Stewart to defect.

    Herbivores in pursuit of unconvincing carnivore.
  • Can only repeat what I said yesterday. Dan Hodges has read the signs and Clegg is going. It's not likely but don't rule it out.

    What if Clegg announced he was going after the GE? Would that underming his party as "leaderless" or lance the boil?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    53% didn't vote for the Union.

    We can play the language games all day.

    Yes massively out performed most people's predictions (with 2 months to go I was predicting Yes 35 No 65 so it shows what I know). The attempts to play semantic games to try and make it look like No did better than it did on what should have been a slam dunk of a campaign is getting old fast.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    it is an epically good piece, isn't it?

    I expect to see much spluttering from Boudicca in the comments - as ever.
    Scott_P said:

    Danny the Fink has written an excellent article in the the Times on the absurdity of the Lib Dem offer (elect us and we will change Westminster) and how UKIP are trying to seize the mantle (elect us and we will change Westminster)

    This is basically the same theory as the one with which the Liberal Democrats fought the last election, just with different enemies and different pixie dust. Nigel Farage is Nick Clegg after a few pints. It is almost painful to watch.

    The Liberal Democrats once argued for ending the Westminster conspiracy by integrating into the EU; now Ukip argues for ending the Westminster conspiracy by leaving the EU. Delicious.

    Yet also, ridiculous.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4229927.ece

    And for confirmation

    Ukip by-election win in Clacton would herald a new political era

    http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/519826/Ukip-by-election-win-Clacton-herald-new-political-era

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr Dancer, I've always meant to ask - but what attracted you to Classical history?

    Your knowledge is encyclopaedic.

    Mr. Eagles, you do have something of Demetrius Poliorcetes about you...

  • Mr. Eagles, have you been drinking?

    Only pineapple juice this morning.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    Yes massively out performed most people's predictions.
    You lost, get over it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Can only repeat what I said yesterday. Dan Hodges has read the signs and Clegg is going. It's not likely but don't rule it out.

    What if Clegg announced he was going after the GE? Would that underming his party as "leaderless" or lance the boil?
    I guess he would continue as Deputy PM until the election whilst they elect another leader. I've nothing to go on other that Hodges' argument, but it does make some sense. Why has there been no attempt at an anti-Clegg putsch? Why is he so relaxed again? He may want his party to recover at the election and feel only a new leader can do that. 5 years of abuse may be quit enough. The post-2015 environment doesn't look very appealing. There are plenty of reasons he might call it quits. Does he even want to stand in Hallam?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Financier said:

    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all

    Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
    The problem with Wind (and I say this as a big supporter to Wind power who'd like to see a lot more turbines go up) is not how much power they can generate but the reliability of output (of course a lot more turbines spread over the country helps with reliability but you can still get days where the whole country is becalmed). Wind is tricky to use for baseload due to this unreliability and it doesn't have the responsiveness of hydro. Hydro is fantastic for both base load and peaking demand but we are reaching our limit of viable hydro locations.

    There needs to be a solution to storing Wind power, there's no wher near enough pumped storage and there isn't really the scope to build much more. Once their is a viable option for storage then Wind becomes much more tasty.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    MIss Plato, ha, I wouldn't go that far.

    I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.

    It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.

    In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:

    Con 47%, Lab 25%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 5%, Greens 3%.

    David Cameron is Stanley Baldwin and I claim my five pounds.
  • MIss Plato, ha, I wouldn't go that far.

    I only did a year of it at school (sadly I had to choose between only one of German, Latin and Classical Civilisation). Someone online a few years ago mentioned Theodore Ayrault Dodge's Hannibal bio/history. I bought that, and just branched out from there.

    It's fascinating stuff and helps to show the real differences between barbarity and civility, how human society can and should develop. And massive battles involving elephants are cool.

    Is a pity you didn't read Literae Humaniores.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    I wonder what this will do to The Green and LD votes?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29536793

    Thanks to Blair, most of the UK's nuclear engineers had no work for many years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
    Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Alistair said:

    Financier said:

    OT

    "It would be hard to argue that Germany is NOT the renewable energy capital of the world in terms of developing a thriving industry that contributed more than 27 percent of renewable energy generation to the grid in the first nine months of 2014."

    Well worth a read.

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2014/10/7-renewable-energy-lessons-from-germany?page=all

    Interestingly, wind turbines provided more electricity to the national grid than nuclear power for the first time on Monday morning.
    The problem with Wind (and I say this as a big supporter to Wind power who'd like to see a lot more turbines go up) is not how much power they can generate but the reliability of output (of course a lot more turbines spread over the country helps with reliability but you can still get days where the whole country is becalmed). Wind is tricky to use for baseload due to this unreliability and it doesn't have the responsiveness of hydro. Hydro is fantastic for both base load and peaking demand but we are reaching our limit of viable hydro locations.

    There needs to be a solution to storing Wind power, there's no wher near enough pumped storage and there isn't really the scope to build much more. Once their is a viable option for storage then Wind becomes much more tasty.
    Yes, storage is the key. There are many possible options that are being investigated including
    http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/breakthrough-grid-scale-renewable-energy-storage-battery-made-gravel.html
    Probably one of the best possibilities is a Liqid Metal Battery (See this lecture from 2012) for more info http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway_the_missing_link_to_renewable_energy?language=en
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.

    In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:

    Con 47%, Lab 25%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 5%, Greens 3%.

    David Cameron is Stanley Baldwin and I claim my five pounds.
    So Tory/Ukip is 65%
    Lab/Green is 28%

    Has the generational divide ever been this big?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    dr_spyn said:

    I wonder what this will do to The Green and LD votes?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29536793

    Didn't Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth endorse nuclear?

    ---------------------------

    From November 2013:

    "...The polling and the speeches mean that it is already almost possible to sketch a picture of Mr Clegg’s dream voter. They are middle class (and able to afford green taxes), and rather metropolitan in their outlook. All Lib Dem MPs and strategists agree that these voters are the sort who fret about whether they are doing the recycling properly."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10433018/Nick-Clegg-is-playing-to-hismost-loyal-voters-the-green-middle-class.html

    You can see why the LDs get so antsy about the Green Party.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HaveIGotNewsForYou ‏@haveigotnews · 9m9 minutes ago
    By-election latest. Gordon Brown offers Clacton full devolution and tax-raising powers if they say no to UKIP.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    £20 at 1-2 on all 3 leaders to stay is my only bet involving Clegg (In this capacity) I think...

    Have a fair bit more on Dave and Ed to remain in post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Dan Hodges says so. Was I the only one on pb who suggested it (not boasting or anything).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    I have to say that I dream about more interesting things.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    TSE said:


    The fact that Nick Clegg is 1/16 to be remain the Lib Dem leader at the next general election given i) his personal ratings ii) the party’s ratings, tells you that the Lib Dems are backing their man, the question is will the country?

    A couple of hours is a very long time ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Actually I don't think Clegg would resign at Deputy PM before the election. As party leader maybe. The wording on the bet needs to be clear!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    I have to say that I dream about more interesting things.
    When you edit PB, trust me, you end up dreaming about politics more than you'd like to.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    This Guardian article on Clacton is interesting.

    The parallels drawn with the Independence Referendum suggest that turnout in 2015 could be a fair bit higher than in recent general elections. In 2010 turnout was 65.1%, the highest since 71.3% in 1997 and 77.7% in 1992 (which was the highest turnout since February 1974).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited October 2014
    Yes. I've dreamt about Alex Salmond recently.

    And the next election being like the Hunger Games although that was more a dream about Jennifer Lawrence
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    5-6 ?!

    That sounds extraordinarily short. Unless it's going to happen... ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    Yes massively out performed most people's predictions
    Not Salmond's private pollsters - or most of the Nat posters on here - I'm sure TSE can remind us of the link to the results of the PB competition........
    I wouldn't get too cocky, most of the Nats wre a lot more on the insrtuctibe on the way the wind was blowing on here than the Nay sayers who were predicting a YES score in the 30s
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, never even heard of that.

    Clegg resigning would be weird. Might work.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1928676
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TSE - Perhaps OGH read Dan's column just before bed? Actually the lack of Lib Dem agitation makes me suspicious that they already know.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Buffoon Carmichael was on Scottish tv the other night saying no Libdem leader has gone into a GE in a more secure position than Clegg: also ominous.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
    Maybe mindless people are just assuming that Mr Hodges knows something.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    That's very interesting. Someone obviously knows something.
    No Clegg liabilities it seems in the Paddy account

    Do have this bet however

    15/07/2014 Single To Win No @ 1/4
    UKIP Special
    Will UKIP win a by-election before the next general election? Pending £64.12

    Oops !
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited October 2014

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Clegg is excellent and I'm sure he will perform well today. I predict that in the GE the LibDem's will do far better than currently forecast and Labour will experience a catastrophe with around 25 % of the vote.

    I agree that the Lib Dems have important and useful things to say. I don't agree that anyone is listening. They are going to lose a lot of seats. My guess at the moment would be close to half, more in Scotland.
    You underestimate the tenacity of the LibDems, they'll lose very few if any seats.
    You fancy a bet on that? I think they will lose 20+ seats. Are you willing to bet £50 that it is less? (I am happy to accept the net position so they get the credit of any gains.)

    It is a bit of an odd one because it is a bet I would quite like to lose!
    You're far more astute and much better informed than I am, so I decline your challenge.

    Ha Ha Ha , loser.
    So says a 45er......
    You still making things up

    If you had posted that to Financier he would be litigating by now.
    So you're not one of the 37% who voted "Yes" (I was being charitable using the term they have given themselves...)?
    37% voted Yes 47% voted No. No matter how you slice it no side got a majority.
    63% didn't vote for change.

    When will Yes learn to take No for an answer?
    The oldies outvoted the young in the Independence referendum.

    In Ashcroft's latest national poll the 65+ age group shares are:

    Con 47%, Lab 25%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 5%, Greens 3%.

    David Cameron is Stanley Baldwin and I claim my five pounds.
    Interesting. My feeling is that young people are as disillusioned, or more so, than/as ever and to an extent it's the older groups who will decide the election if they split as decisively as this. The other thing to watch for are any big gender differences. My sense is that UKIP have a problem with women ...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    BenM said:

    JBriskin said:

    [There is no intrinstic value in public spending vs private spending vs third sector.]

    Private spending pays for the public spending .

    Not in a mixed economy like ours.
    I don't think that's right - the economy has to be somewhat mixed for my formula to work. Third sector screws up all my intensive graph work though.

    Your formula doesn't work if it assumes the government can only spend what it taxes.

    I'd have thought the experience of the last 8 years disproved that vast over simplification in droves?
    I think government debt and deficits pre-date the last 8 years...

    Even more evidence your formula doesn't work.
    You're not advocating perpetual deficits are you? Has Keynes really fallen that much out of favour??

    Deficits can be run by governments in perpetuity. Look at post war history this is basically the case anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Oh dear, this looks ominous for my bet:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 2 mins2 minutes ago
    Suddenly the money is going on an early departure for Clegg. PaddyPower cut price on him going before GE from 13/2 to 2/1

    Don't worry.

    He told me this morning that last night he dreamt about Clegg announcing his resignation as Lib Dem leader during his speech.
    You can get 5/6 on that with Paddy Power too.
    5-6 ?!

    That sounds extraordinarily short. Unless it's going to happen... ?
    Are they offering 5/6 he doesn't?


    EDIT: I see that they are... That seems extraordinary doesn't it?
This discussion has been closed.