Could Sunak face a challenge before the election? – politicalbetting.com

FeersumEnjineeya said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the vaccine left-right split: is this down to the fact that vaccines are often about group immunity, rather than personal immunity? As an individual, I may not stand much chance of getting seriously ill from Disease A. But the vaccine gives me a tiny, tiny chance of being ill. But the vaccine stops people who are much more vulnerable from Disease A becoming ill, and from the disease spreading.

So it becomes a case of the good of all, versus individual good. And it doesn't matter if Disease A is actually more likely to make me ill than the vaccine, as the vaccine's risk is avoidable, and I might get lucky with the disease.

Hence people more to the left, who tend to like public good, like vaccines. And individualists tend to be more on the right and dislike them?

I think you have a point, and we all need to be aware of our biases, but scientific training helps us to be more objective. Those with scientific training are more to be able to mitigate their underlying tendencies towards individualism or collectivism and make more rational judgements.

Those lacking in such training are more likely to form their opinion on the basis of their left/right tendency or culture group and then seek out evidence to support that opinion while ignoring evidence that contradicts their opinion.

Edit: I see that my response is somewhat orthogonal to your post. But yes, I also largely agree with what you wrote.

Afaics from a distance and occasionally close up, the binary left-right split is much more confused in Germany on Covid and vaccines? Ie many lefty progressives are at least vaccine sceptics and publically so.

Of course contra the UK chauvins on here, I guess countries having quite different responses to big issues is the natural order rather than the exception.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

I guess I should have learnt that arguing with someone with multiple personalities is obviously not a good idea.

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

kyf_100 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kyf_100 said:

The British public don't like losers. That's why "one more push" didn't work with Kinnock or Corbyn. Johnson is yesterday's man.

I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.

Why do we keep electing losers as party leaders then....

Name a winner. Hint: Johnson ain't it.

"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623

Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.

The Red Wall has expanded beyond all useful definition if it includes a crowd at Alexandra Palace.
WWC in the SE, yes.

I'm suggesting that there's probably a decent crossover between WWC voters in general and what we call the "red wall".

Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.

Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.

Is Sunak socially awkward? He seems moderately personable to me. He makes gaffes because of his wealth and he’s not a funny guy, but I don’t see awkwardness. He’s too smooth if anything, in a Davosian way

He will lose badly in 2024

Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness

From a social awkwardness perspective, I see Sunak as a lot like me. He seems utterly confident, probably quite dominant, albeit it an quiet way, in a social setting he's comfortable with. Put him in the boardroom and you know he's the boss.

But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.

That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.

Fair

Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal

A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)

Tempting.

Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.

What is here, other than rain and taxes?

I’m afraid I agree with your last sentence. And Thailand (as an example) has zero income taxes, in effect (as long as you can prove you have private health insurance etc)

This is why I am medium term deeply pessimistic for the UK. The weather is shit half the year, and a lot of people have discovered that they can work from ANYWHERE

Why work from home when you can work from paradise, as the Spectator rightly asked? So prescient

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/

The UK, given its shit climate, Stygian winter darkness, pig ugly towns, hideous obese people, farcical Woke culture, collapsing health care, idiot lefties, horrible transport issues, insane immigration nightmare, and the perennial problem of Newent, needs to be heading to zero taxes to attract people or simply retain the rich

instead, we march in the opposite direction. This will not end well

Most people though are on contracts based in one city or town and country, even if they only attend team meetings a few times a month in person and otherwise wfh.

Only the rich and self employed rich like you or retired rich are really able to move to sunnier climes every winter

The productivity issue is interesting. And why outsourcing IT has repeatedly failed to deliver.

As I have previously mentioned, in one company we had (due to mergers and acquisitions) teams around the world working on the same code base. The perfect test. London was actually the most productive per dollar.

The reason is a matrix of culture, legal and physical infrastructure.

In one interesting instance an Indian chap moved back to India, for personal reasons. Highly productive in the U.K., he was at the Indian average within a few months.

This stuff has been seen repeatedly, over many years.

That’s interesting

Has anyone worked out why? The adventitious collision of minds in London, or the fact it is shit and rainy half the time in London, so you might as well work?

These things are quirky. I am 98% certain I am more productive out here in Bangkok (esp in the UK winter), There are many reasons, but one is the time difference. When I wake up at 10am, it is 3am in London, so the internet is dead, and there is no one to argue with on PB, no Twitter storms to distract me, so I might as well go straight to work. And I do. By the time I am finished it is time for lunch then after that the UK wakes up and I can waste time on Ye Twitter….when the work is already done

Rinse and repeat, day by day, for me

It’s a combination of things.

Remember, as a writer, you are working solo. And you are living alone.

So journalists are surprised when WFH causes systemic collapse in some organisations.

WFB - Working From Beach - has been tried in IT repeatedly since before 2000

I continue to be surprised how my work fail to see how structurally corrosive having >90% people WFH >90% of the time is. It's not hybrid in any meaningful sense of the word.

It works ok in productivity terms if you know exactly what you are doing, but it instantly falls apart in any sort of complex, multi-person, technically difficult project. Edit - particularly when you have a high turnover of people and/or lots of junior colleagues joining the team.

It works great in a team of high end developers, doing Agile, who all know each other and banter on the chat and are working in a stable environment.

The problem is that everyone thinks that everything must be like that.

Especially the idea of static 4 days WFH or whatever. It needs to be flexible. For example, when someone joins the team, you probably need to all go the office together for the first few weeks.

Malmesbury said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

kyf_100 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kyf_100 said:

The British public don't like losers. That's why "one more push" didn't work with Kinnock or Corbyn. Johnson is yesterday's man.

I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.

Why do we keep electing losers as party leaders then....

Name a winner. Hint: Johnson ain't it.

"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623

Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.

The Red Wall has expanded beyond all useful definition if it includes a crowd at Alexandra Palace.
WWC in the SE, yes.

I'm suggesting that there's probably a decent crossover between WWC voters in general and what we call the "red wall".

Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.

Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.

Is Sunak socially awkward? He seems moderately personable to me. He makes gaffes because of his wealth and he’s not a funny guy, but I don’t see awkwardness. He’s too smooth if anything, in a Davosian way

He will lose badly in 2024

Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness

From a social awkwardness perspective, I see Sunak as a lot like me. He seems utterly confident, probably quite dominant, albeit it an quiet way, in a social setting he's comfortable with. Put him in the boardroom and you know he's the boss.

But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.

That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.

Fair

Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal

A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)

Tempting.

Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.

What is here, other than rain and taxes?

I’m afraid I agree with your last sentence. And Thailand (as an example) has zero income taxes, in effect (as long as you can prove you have private health insurance etc)

This is why I am medium term deeply pessimistic for the UK. The weather is shit half the year, and a lot of people have discovered that they can work from ANYWHERE

Why work from home when you can work from paradise, as the Spectator rightly asked? So prescient

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/

The UK, given its shit climate, Stygian winter darkness, pig ugly towns, hideous obese people, farcical Woke culture, collapsing health care, idiot lefties, horrible transport issues, insane immigration nightmare, and the perennial problem of Newent, needs to be heading to zero taxes to attract people or simply retain the rich

instead, we march in the opposite direction. This will not end well

Most people though are on contracts based in one city or town and country, even if they only attend team meetings a few times a month in person and otherwise wfh.

Only the rich and self employed rich like you or retired rich are really able to move to sunnier climes every winter

The productivity issue is interesting. And why outsourcing IT has repeatedly failed to deliver.

As I have previously mentioned, in one company we had (due to mergers and acquisitions) teams around the world working on the same code base. The perfect test. London was actually the most productive per dollar.

The reason is a matrix of culture, legal and physical infrastructure.

In one interesting instance an Indian chap moved back to India, for personal reasons. Highly productive in the U.K., he was at the Indian average within a few months.

This stuff has been seen repeatedly, over many years.

That’s interesting

Has anyone worked out why? The adventitious collision of minds in London, or the fact it is shit and rainy half the time in London, so you might as well work?

These things are quirky. I am 98% certain I am more productive out here in Bangkok (esp in the UK winter), There are many reasons, but one is the time difference. When I wake up at 10am, it is 3am in London, so the internet is dead, and there is no one to argue with on PB, no Twitter storms to distract me, so I might as well go straight to work. And I do. By the time I am finished it is time for lunch then after that the UK wakes up and I can waste time on Ye Twitter….when the work is already done

Rinse and repeat, day by day, for me

It’s a combination of things.

Remember, as a writer, you are working solo. And you are living alone.

So journalists are surprised when WFH causes systemic collapse in some organisations.

WFB - Working From Beach - has been tried in IT repeatedly since before 2000

I continue to be surprised how my work fail to see how structurally corrosive having >90% people WFH >90% of the time is. It's not hybrid in any meaningful sense of the word.

It works ok in productivity terms if you know exactly what you are doing, but it instantly falls apart in any sort of complex, multi-person, technically difficult project. Edit - particularly when you have a high turnover of people and/or lots of junior colleagues joining the team.

It works great in a team of high end developers, doing Agile, who all know each other and banter on the chat and are working in a stable environment.

The problem is that everyone thinks that everything must be like that.

Especially the idea of static 4 days WFH or whatever. It needs to be flexible. For example, when someone joins the team, you probably need to all go the office together for the first few weeks.

Yes. Don't get me started on senior management misunderstanding Agile.

The problem with the going to the office together thing is that when you take the view of anyone can work anywhere pretty much any time, then no-one any longer lives within remotely any useful distance of the same office locations - so you pretty much can't all go to the office together even if you want to.

And even if you all wanted to, the office no longer want to pay for travel costs or accommodation costs...because everyone can WFH.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Battle of the Manchester training kits.

In the red corner, Tezos, a crypto token which has completely tanked in value since United started promoting it.

In the blue corner OKX, a shady crypto exchange under investigation in Canada for violating securities law. #MUNMCI

In both cases, crypto isn't using football just for the traditional purpose of advertising - promoting the product to customers - but also to reputation-wash the product.

The glamour of the Manchester derby puts a respectable sheen on an increasingly discredited industry.

https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1614235682456715265

The gambling companies run by a guy who the FBI says is head of a prominant Triad, that facilitate illegal betting in places like China, use slave labour, and whose backend software has been shown to be controlled by Eastern European mafia are still well represented......

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the vaccine left-right split: is this down to the fact that vaccines are often about group immunity, rather than personal immunity? As an individual, I may not stand much chance of getting seriously ill from Disease A. But the vaccine gives me a tiny, tiny chance of being ill. But the vaccine stops people who are much more vulnerable from Disease A becoming ill, and from the disease spreading.

So it becomes a case of the good of all, versus individual good. And it doesn't matter if Disease A is actually more likely to make me ill than the vaccine, as the vaccine's risk is avoidable, and I might get lucky with the disease.

Hence people more to the left, who tend to like public good, like vaccines. And individualists tend to be more on the right and dislike them?

I wonder if there was a bit of that with attitudes to cloth masks. My understanding is that they weren't much good for protecting the wearer, but did quite a lot of good for others if worn by carriers.

The weird thing to me was the strange attitude that a paper mask is just fine, when an N95 is available.

Sure, better than nothing. But there’s a reason that Health & Safety would drop a bridge on you for issuing paper masks in some workplaces.

N95 are designed, made and tested to stop virus sized particles. Paper masks ain’t.

N95s are horrible to wear for prolonged periods. Paper masks aren’t great, but they are considerably less distressing

Basically, all masks are shit, and it’s time to dump them

This is especially good advice for somewhere like Thailand, where 95% of people are still wearing masks (beyond tourist areas) even outdoors. Nuts. Depressing. Stop!

I find N95 easier to wear. Pulling the straps mega tight is the usual mistake.

Same here. Well, FFP3 masks, anyway.
I only got a batch of FFP3 masks in January last year, prior to a flight to Switzerland.
When I got them, I wished I'd bought FFP3 masks from early on.
Cloth masks cause my glasses to steam up, they're uncomfortable on the face, and give a feeling of being unable to breathe.

These FFP3 masks, because they didn't allow air to leak around the edges, meant that my glasses never steamed up. And somehow it felt as if I could breathe easier, and even run in them (when I had to jog back to pick up my fleece, which I'd taken off).

Re productivity, WFH, etc.

Having conversations past week with acamedics at some leading unis, they saying its totally screwing with informal chats about ideas, collaboration and having issues with PhD students who rarely attend in person, thus little in the way of mentoring, learning from post-doc and early years researchers in the labs / offices.

Given we are a knowledge baed economy, not great.

Andy_Cooke said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the vaccine left-right split: is this down to the fact that vaccines are often about group immunity, rather than personal immunity? As an individual, I may not stand much chance of getting seriously ill from Disease A. But the vaccine gives me a tiny, tiny chance of being ill. But the vaccine stops people who are much more vulnerable from Disease A becoming ill, and from the disease spreading.

So it becomes a case of the good of all, versus individual good. And it doesn't matter if Disease A is actually more likely to make me ill than the vaccine, as the vaccine's risk is avoidable, and I might get lucky with the disease.

Hence people more to the left, who tend to like public good, like vaccines. And individualists tend to be more on the right and dislike them?

I wonder if there was a bit of that with attitudes to cloth masks. My understanding is that they weren't much good for protecting the wearer, but did quite a lot of good for others if worn by carriers.

The weird thing to me was the strange attitude that a paper mask is just fine, when an N95 is available.

Sure, better than nothing. But there’s a reason that Health & Safety would drop a bridge on you for issuing paper masks in some workplaces.

N95 are designed, made and tested to stop virus sized particles. Paper masks ain’t.

N95s are horrible to wear for prolonged periods. Paper masks aren’t great, but they are considerably less distressing

Basically, all masks are shit, and it’s time to dump them

This is especially good advice for somewhere like Thailand, where 95% of people are still wearing masks (beyond tourist areas) even outdoors. Nuts. Depressing. Stop!

I find N95 easier to wear. Pulling the straps mega tight is the usual mistake.

Same here. Well, FFP3 masks, anyway.
I only got a batch of FFP3 masks in January last year, prior to a flight to Switzerland.
When I got them, I wished I'd bought FFP3 masks from early on.
Cloth masks cause my glasses to steam up, they're uncomfortable on the face, and give a feeling of being unable to breathe.

These FFP3 masks, because they didn't allow air to leak around the edges, meant that my glasses never steamed up. And somehow it felt as if I could breathe easier, and even run in them (when I had to jog back to pick up my fleece, which I'd taken off).

Valved or unvalved FFP3 makes a big difference. Valved ones allow good breathing but do not protect others very well.

I see Lord Frost now blames Brexit on Keir Starmer.

Gardenwalker said:

I see Lord Frost now blames Brexit on Keir Starmer.

Surely he means takes credit for all the Brexit benefits?

ohnotnow said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

kyf_100 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kyf_100 said:

The British public don't like losers. That's why "one more push" didn't work with Kinnock or Corbyn. Johnson is yesterday's man.

I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.

Why do we keep electing losers as party leaders then....

Name a winner. Hint: Johnson ain't it.

"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623

Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.

The Red Wall has expanded beyond all useful definition if it includes a crowd at Alexandra Palace.
WWC in the SE, yes.

I'm suggesting that there's probably a decent crossover between WWC voters in general and what we call the "red wall".

Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.

Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.

Is Sunak socially awkward? He seems moderately personable to me. He makes gaffes because of his wealth and he’s not a funny guy, but I don’t see awkwardness. He’s too smooth if anything, in a Davosian way

He will lose badly in 2024

Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness

From a social awkwardness perspective, I see Sunak as a lot like me. He seems utterly confident, probably quite dominant, albeit it an quiet way, in a social setting he's comfortable with. Put him in the boardroom and you know he's the boss.

But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.

That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.

Fair

Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal

A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)

Tempting.

Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.

What is here, other than rain and taxes?

I’m afraid I agree with your last sentence. And Thailand (as an example) has zero income taxes, in effect (as long as you can prove you have private health insurance etc)

This is why I am medium term deeply pessimistic for the UK. The weather is shit half the year, and a lot of people have discovered that they can work from ANYWHERE

Why work from home when you can work from paradise, as the Spectator rightly asked? So prescient

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/

The UK, given its shit climate, Stygian winter darkness, pig ugly towns, hideous obese people, farcical Woke culture, collapsing health care, idiot lefties, horrible transport issues, insane immigration nightmare, and the perennial problem of Newent, needs to be heading to zero taxes to attract people or simply retain the rich

instead, we march in the opposite direction. This will not end well

Most people though are on contracts based in one city or town and country, even if they only attend team meetings a few times a month in person and otherwise wfh.

Only the rich and self employed rich like you or retired rich are really able to move to sunnier climes every winter

The productivity issue is interesting. And why outsourcing IT has repeatedly failed to deliver.

As I have previously mentioned, in one company we had (due to mergers and acquisitions) teams around the world working on the same code base. The perfect test. London was actually the most productive per dollar.

The reason is a matrix of culture, legal and physical infrastructure.

In one interesting instance an Indian chap moved back to India, for personal reasons. Highly productive in the U.K., he was at the Indian average within a few months.

This stuff has been seen repeatedly, over many years.

That’s interesting

Has anyone worked out why? The adventitious collision of minds in London, or the fact it is shit and rainy half the time in London, so you might as well work?

These things are quirky. I am 98% certain I am more productive out here in Bangkok (esp in the UK winter), There are many reasons, but one is the time difference. When I wake up at 10am, it is 3am in London, so the internet is dead, and there is no one to argue with on PB, no Twitter storms to distract me, so I might as well go straight to work. And I do. By the time I am finished it is time for lunch then after that the UK wakes up and I can waste time on Ye Twitter….when the work is already done

Rinse and repeat, day by day, for me

It’s a combination of things.

Remember, as a writer, you are working solo. And you are living alone.

So journalists are surprised when WFH causes systemic collapse in some organisations.

WFB - Working From Beach - has been tried in IT repeatedly since before 2000

I continue to be surprised how my work fail to see how structurally corrosive having >90% people WFH >90% of the time is. It's not hybrid in any meaningful sense of the word.

It works ok in productivity terms if you know exactly what you are doing, but it instantly falls apart in any sort of complex, multi-person, technically difficult project. Edit - particularly when you have a high turnover of people and/or lots of junior colleagues joining the team.

It works great in a team of high end developers, doing Agile, who all know each other and banter on the chat and are working in a stable environment.

The problem is that everyone thinks that everything must be like that.

Especially the idea of static 4 days WFH or whatever. It needs to be flexible. For example, when someone joins the team, you probably need to all go the office together for the first few weeks.

Yes. Don't get me started on senior management misunderstanding Agile.

The problem with the going to the office together thing is that when you take the view of anyone can work anywhere pretty much any time, then no-one any longer lives within remotely any useful distance of the same office locations - so you pretty much can't all go to the office together even if you want to.

And even if you all wanted to, the office no longer want to pay for travel costs or accommodation costs...because everyone can WFH.

My 'junior' (and indeed me) were told during the lockdown that we'd both be WFH full time now. 100% no doubt about it. Our desks were taken away and the office turned into an 'agile working space'. Only for a new manager 'up the chain' who is very much an extrovert (loves the chat, wandering around the offices seeing 'his people') saying the we really, really should be in the office.

Came just as my colleague had saved up enough money to buy a little place way out in the countryside - his dream come true. So had the decision to either give up on it so he could still get into the office, or find a new dev job that was remote. He's now interviewing and I'll be left trying to hire a new dev at a not competitive salary and told they need to sit in an office every day because it keeps a manager in bants.

Sorry - somewhat tangential, but it's really making me quite annoyed.

A lot of companies are losing staff because they are too strict on people being in the office. It is a bad time to be annoying your staff when the jobs market is do bouyant.

ohnotnow said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

kyf_100 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kyf_100 said:

The British public don't like losers. That's why "one more push" didn't work with Kinnock or Corbyn. Johnson is yesterday's man.

I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.

Why do we keep electing losers as party leaders then....

Name a winner. Hint: Johnson ain't it.

"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623

Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.

The Red Wall has expanded beyond all useful definition if it includes a crowd at Alexandra Palace.
WWC in the SE, yes.

I'm suggesting that there's probably a decent crossover between WWC voters in general and what we call the "red wall".

Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.

Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.

Is Sunak socially awkward? He seems moderately personable to me. He makes gaffes because of his wealth and he’s not a funny guy, but I don’t see awkwardness. He’s too smooth if anything, in a Davosian way

He will lose badly in 2024

Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness

From a social awkwardness perspective, I see Sunak as a lot like me. He seems utterly confident, probably quite dominant, albeit it an quiet way, in a social setting he's comfortable with. Put him in the boardroom and you know he's the boss.

But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.

That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.

Fair

Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal

A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)

Tempting.

Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.

What is here, other than rain and taxes?

I’m afraid I agree with your last sentence. And Thailand (as an example) has zero income taxes, in effect (as long as you can prove you have private health insurance etc)

This is why I am medium term deeply pessimistic for the UK. The weather is shit half the year, and a lot of people have discovered that they can work from ANYWHERE

Why work from home when you can work from paradise, as the Spectator rightly asked? So prescient

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/

The UK, given its shit climate, Stygian winter darkness, pig ugly towns, hideous obese people, farcical Woke culture, collapsing health care, idiot lefties, horrible transport issues, insane immigration nightmare, and the perennial problem of Newent, needs to be heading to zero taxes to attract people or simply retain the rich

instead, we march in the opposite direction. This will not end well

Most people though are on contracts based in one city or town and country, even if they only attend team meetings a few times a month in person and otherwise wfh.

Only the rich and self employed rich like you or retired rich are really able to move to sunnier climes every winter

The productivity issue is interesting. And why outsourcing IT has repeatedly failed to deliver.

As I have previously mentioned, in one company we had (due to mergers and acquisitions) teams around the world working on the same code base. The perfect test. London was actually the most productive per dollar.

The reason is a matrix of culture, legal and physical infrastructure.

In one interesting instance an Indian chap moved back to India, for personal reasons. Highly productive in the U.K., he was at the Indian average within a few months.

This stuff has been seen repeatedly, over many years.

That’s interesting

Has anyone worked out why? The adventitious collision of minds in London, or the fact it is shit and rainy half the time in London, so you might as well work?

These things are quirky. I am 98% certain I am more productive out here in Bangkok (esp in the UK winter), There are many reasons, but one is the time difference. When I wake up at 10am, it is 3am in London, so the internet is dead, and there is no one to argue with on PB, no Twitter storms to distract me, so I might as well go straight to work. And I do. By the time I am finished it is time for lunch then after that the UK wakes up and I can waste time on Ye Twitter….when the work is already done

Rinse and repeat, day by day, for me

It’s a combination of things.

Remember, as a writer, you are working solo. And you are living alone.

So journalists are surprised when WFH causes systemic collapse in some organisations.

WFB - Working From Beach - has been tried in IT repeatedly since before 2000

I continue to be surprised how my work fail to see how structurally corrosive having >90% people WFH >90% of the time is. It's not hybrid in any meaningful sense of the word.

It works ok in productivity terms if you know exactly what you are doing, but it instantly falls apart in any sort of complex, multi-person, technically difficult project. Edit - particularly when you have a high turnover of people and/or lots of junior colleagues joining the team.

It works great in a team of high end developers, doing Agile, who all know each other and banter on the chat and are working in a stable environment.

The problem is that everyone thinks that everything must be like that.

Especially the idea of static 4 days WFH or whatever. It needs to be flexible. For example, when someone joins the team, you probably need to all go the office together for the first few weeks.

Yes. Don't get me started on senior management misunderstanding Agile.

The problem with the going to the office together thing is that when you take the view of anyone can work anywhere pretty much any time, then no-one any longer lives within remotely any useful distance of the same office locations - so you pretty much can't all go to the office together even if you want to.

And even if you all wanted to, the office no longer want to pay for travel costs or accommodation costs...because everyone can WFH.

My 'junior' (and indeed me) were told during the lockdown that we'd both be WFH full time now. 100% no doubt about it. Our desks were taken away and the office turned into an 'agile working space'. Only for a new manager 'up the chain' who is very much an extrovert (loves the chat, wandering around the offices seeing 'his people') saying the we really, really should be in the office.

Came just as my colleague had saved up enough money to buy a little place way out in the countryside - his dream come true. So had the decision to either give up on it so he could still get into the office, or find a new dev job that was remote. He's now interviewing and I'll be left trying to hire a new dev at a not competitive salary and told they need to sit in an office every day because it keeps a manager in bants.

Sorry - somewhat tangential, but it's really making me quite annoyed.

The inflexibility, either way, is ridiculous.

We just lost one guy from the team because he doesn’t want to WFH 4/5

Chris said:

ohnotnow said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

"The UK is to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine to bolster the country's war effort, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said.

He spoke to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in a call on Saturday, during which he confirmed he would send the equipment and additional artillery systems, No 10 said.

Downing Street said the move shows "the UK's ambition to intensify support."

The BBC understands the initial commitment is for about a dozen tanks."

Plus a photo opportunity.

What was comic was to hear various people trying to defend the German government on the basis that “no formal application to send Leopards to Ukraine has been made”

Surprising numbers of people seem unaware that you only formally ask a question, in diplomacy, when you know the answer already.

You don’t chuck the formal letter in the post. Junior diplomats ask hypotheticals and it gets gently escalated until everyone knows the score. And then you ask formally.

Otherwise you put the other guy in a spot - the German government can say “we haven’t been formally asked. Discussion etc”, rather than “Formally asked. Answer is no at the moment”.

Since politicians hate to do u turns in public and a no would have political consequences, actually asking can be a bit rude.

Andy_Cooke said:

Foxy said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the vaccine left-right split: is this down to the fact that vaccines are often about group immunity, rather than personal immunity? As an individual, I may not stand much chance of getting seriously ill from Disease A. But the vaccine gives me a tiny, tiny chance of being ill. But the vaccine stops people who are much more vulnerable from Disease A becoming ill, and from the disease spreading.

So it becomes a case of the good of all, versus individual good. And it doesn't matter if Disease A is actually more likely to make me ill than the vaccine, as the vaccine's risk is avoidable, and I might get lucky with the disease.

Hence people more to the left, who tend to like public good, like vaccines. And individualists tend to be more on the right and dislike them?

I wonder if there was a bit of that with attitudes to cloth masks. My understanding is that they weren't much good for protecting the wearer, but did quite a lot of good for others if worn by carriers.

The weird thing to me was the strange attitude that a paper mask is just fine, when an N95 is available.

Sure, better than nothing. But there’s a reason that Health & Safety would drop a bridge on you for issuing paper masks in some workplaces.

N95 are designed, made and tested to stop virus sized particles. Paper masks ain’t.

N95s are horrible to wear for prolonged periods. Paper masks aren’t great, but they are considerably less distressing

Basically, all masks are shit, and it’s time to dump them

This is especially good advice for somewhere like Thailand, where 95% of people are still wearing masks (beyond tourist areas) even outdoors. Nuts. Depressing. Stop!

I find N95 easier to wear. Pulling the straps mega tight is the usual mistake.

Same here. Well, FFP3 masks, anyway.
I only got a batch of FFP3 masks in January last year, prior to a flight to Switzerland.
When I got them, I wished I'd bought FFP3 masks from early on.
Cloth masks cause my glasses to steam up, they're uncomfortable on the face, and give a feeling of being unable to breathe.

These FFP3 masks, because they didn't allow air to leak around the edges, meant that my glasses never steamed up. And somehow it felt as if I could breathe easier, and even run in them (when I had to jog back to pick up my fleece, which I'd taken off).

Valved or unvalved FFP3 makes a big difference. Valved ones allow good breathing but do not protect others very well.

These were unvalved.
If I'd tried the valved version, I'd probably (from all accounts) see the unvalved ones as being hugely worse, but because I've only used the unvalved ones, they come across as fine to me.

I think it's possibly because, unlike the cloth masks, there's no pressure on your nose itself. Probably completely psychosomatic, but it felt so much easier to me.

As an experiment, I went jogging using an unvented mask. No problem for me….

A Russian missile destroyed a multi-story residential building in Dnipro, says Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of Zelensky’s office. Dnipro Mayor Boris Filatov is with rescue workers at the scene. Could be many casualties. Photos via Tymoshenko and Dnipro Telegram channels
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1614269481957707777

By chance, I’m sitting next to a woman whose grandma lives in this building. The grandma is ok. “There’s nothing there, just people,” the woman said. “I took walks there with my kid.”
https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1614270157815271425

Malmesbury said:

ohnotnow said:

Malmesbury said:

ohnotnow said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

kyf_100 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kyf_100 said:

The British public don't like losers. That's why "one more push" didn't work with Kinnock or Corbyn. Johnson is yesterday's man.

I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.

Why do we keep electing losers as party leaders then....

Name a winner. Hint: Johnson ain't it.

"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623

Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.

The Red Wall has expanded beyond all useful definition if it includes a crowd at Alexandra Palace.
WWC in the SE, yes.

I'm suggesting that there's probably a decent crossover between WWC voters in general and what we call the "red wall".

Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.

Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.

Is Sunak socially awkward? He seems moderately personable to me. He makes gaffes because of his wealth and he’s not a funny guy, but I don’t see awkwardness. He’s too smooth if anything, in a Davosian way

He will lose badly in 2024

Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness

From a social awkwardness perspective, I see Sunak as a lot like me. He seems utterly confident, probably quite dominant, albeit it an quiet way, in a social setting he's comfortable with. Put him in the boardroom and you know he's the boss.

But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.

That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.

Fair

Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal

A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)

Tempting.

Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.

What is here, other than rain and taxes?

I’m afraid I agree with your last sentence. And Thailand (as an example) has zero income taxes, in effect (as long as you can prove you have private health insurance etc)

This is why I am medium term deeply pessimistic for the UK. The weather is shit half the year, and a lot of people have discovered that they can work from ANYWHERE

Why work from home when you can work from paradise, as the Spectator rightly asked? So prescient

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/

The UK, given its shit climate, Stygian winter darkness, pig ugly towns, hideous obese people, farcical Woke culture, collapsing health care, idiot lefties, horrible transport issues, insane immigration nightmare, and the perennial problem of Newent, needs to be heading to zero taxes to attract people or simply retain the rich

instead, we march in the opposite direction. This will not end well

Most people though are on contracts based in one city or town and country, even if they only attend team meetings a few times a month in person and otherwise wfh.

Only the rich and self employed rich like you or retired rich are really able to move to sunnier climes every winter

The productivity issue is interesting. And why outsourcing IT has repeatedly failed to deliver.

As I have previously mentioned, in one company we had (due to mergers and acquisitions) teams around the world working on the same code base. The perfect test. London was actually the most productive per dollar.

The reason is a matrix of culture, legal and physical infrastructure.

In one interesting instance an Indian chap moved back to India, for personal reasons. Highly productive in the U.K., he was at the Indian average within a few months.

This stuff has been seen repeatedly, over many years.

That’s interesting

Has anyone worked out why? The adventitious collision of minds in London, or the fact it is shit and rainy half the time in London, so you might as well work?

These things are quirky. I am 98% certain I am more productive out here in Bangkok (esp in the UK winter), There are many reasons, but one is the time difference. When I wake up at 10am, it is 3am in London, so the internet is dead, and there is no one to argue with on PB, no Twitter storms to distract me, so I might as well go straight to work. And I do. By the time I am finished it is time for lunch then after that the UK wakes up and I can waste time on Ye Twitter….when the work is already done

Rinse and repeat, day by day, for me

It’s a combination of things.

Remember, as a writer, you are working solo. And you are living alone.

So journalists are surprised when WFH causes systemic collapse in some organisations.

WFB - Working From Beach - has been tried in IT repeatedly since before 2000

I continue to be surprised how my work fail to see how structurally corrosive having >90% people WFH >90% of the time is. It's not hybrid in any meaningful sense of the word.

It works ok in productivity terms if you know exactly what you are doing, but it instantly falls apart in any sort of complex, multi-person, technically difficult project. Edit - particularly when you have a high turnover of people and/or lots of junior colleagues joining the team.

It works great in a team of high end developers, doing Agile, who all know each other and banter on the chat and are working in a stable environment.

The problem is that everyone thinks that everything must be like that.

Especially the idea of static 4 days WFH or whatever. It needs to be flexible. For example, when someone joins the team, you probably need to all go the office together for the first few weeks.

Yes. Don't get me started on senior management misunderstanding Agile.

The problem with the going to the office together thing is that when you take the view of anyone can work anywhere pretty much any time, then no-one any longer lives within remotely any useful distance of the same office locations - so you pretty much can't all go to the office together even if you want to.

And even if you all wanted to, the office no longer want to pay for travel costs or accommodation costs...because everyone can WFH.

My 'junior' (and indeed me) were told during the lockdown that we'd both be WFH full time now. 100% no doubt about it. Our desks were taken away and the office turned into an 'agile working space'. Only for a new manager 'up the chain' who is very much an extrovert (loves the chat, wandering around the offices seeing 'his people') saying the we really, really should be in the office.

Came just as my colleague had saved up enough money to buy a little place way out in the countryside - his dream come true. So had the decision to either give up on it so he could still get into the office, or find a new dev job that was remote. He's now interviewing and I'll be left trying to hire a new dev at a not competitive salary and told they need to sit in an office every day because it keeps a manager in bants.

Sorry - somewhat tangential, but it's really making me quite annoyed.

The inflexibility, either way, is ridiculous.

We just lost one guy from the team because he doesn’t want to WFH 4/5

We had the same with another guy in the wider team. He had a really tough lockdown (split with his partner, consequent bad emergency housing situation, etc etc) and wanted nothing more than to be around people again. But his role was judged to be remote - his desk taken away etc. And it's taken us almost a year to find a replacement.

And of course now he'd be told to come into the office anyway due to the bants quota so it's all been a total waste.

FFS.

My theory is that it should be

1) anyone can work in the office as much as they want. Younger people in particular like this.
2) each team needs to mandate some days in the office. The number many vary, but at least once a week, on the same day across the team.
3) number of days in office /WFH will vary over the project/product/team cycle.

Yeah - a bit of flexibility along with a bit of predictability seems to be the balance to aim for.

I'm really not sure if we're going to get there. Whether gravity will pull everyone back into the office 'by default', or ... if we'll just keep making a pigs ear of things until a new generation comes through the ranks who started their careers around lockdown times and might have a better handle on how to make it work.

660K reported new SARSCoV2 cases in Japan in the past four days.

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

Every great thinker needs an Alanbrooke.

Perhaps the forgotten aspect of Churchill was that you could say no to his ideas. And he would actually drop them, if given good reasons. And then oppose others coming up with same idea.

For example, the 9.2” “Ultra” Heavy cruisers proposed in 1940.

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

Gove's op-eds were genuinely brilliantly written, but always a tad eccentric.

It is a terrible shame that he went into politics thinking all he had to do was implement them. The loss all around was incalculable.

As you know we differ on this. Whilst I can fully accept your criticisms of him as far as education went, I am glad he went into politics for the work he did in other departments. His time at both Justice and DEFRA were marked by genuine thought and understanding. His attitude to criminal sanction - viewing prisons as places for reform as much, if not more, than for punishment was a refreshing change from decades of pandering to the tabloids. And at DEFRA he understood the need for bringing environmental issues to the front - soil degradation and biodiversity particularly - whilst still keeping the food producers on board and improving food security.

Even though many of his improvements have now been reversed by more traditional Tory knobheads he still showed it was possible to listen to both sides and make real improvements. Something that is shockingly rare in modern politics.

Chris said:

ohnotnow said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

"The UK is to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine to bolster the country's war effort, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said.

He spoke to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in a call on Saturday, during which he confirmed he would send the equipment and additional artillery systems, No 10 said.

Downing Street said the move shows "the UK's ambition to intensify support."

The BBC understands the initial commitment is for about a dozen tanks."

Plus a photo opportunity.

"In return for" surely. The photo op is the other side of the deal.

Maybe the Ukrainians will uphold tradition and send their tallest Tankie to meet Sunak? (Not in the Stalinist sense.)

Stark_Dawning said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

I think that's why there's such of a lot of Boris-will-return stuff in the right-wing media. Boris is the very embodiment of the journocracy. If he fails they all fail.

Yep.
As does the idea that a simplistic slogan is a realistic solution to a problem.
You can see why they so want it to be.

dixiedean said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

I think that's why there's such of a lot of Boris-will-return stuff in the right-wing media. Boris is the very embodiment of the journocracy. If he fails they all fail.

Yep.
As does the idea that a simplistic slogan is a realistic solution to a problem.
You can see why they so want it to be.

Or even a 900 word opinion piece being able to solve any real-world intractable problem.

In the same way that the ability of AI to instantly produce a page of plausible wibble horribly undermines the core skill of a certain kind of journalist.

DJ41 said:

kamski said:

DJ41 said:

DJ41 said:

Japan: the surge in reported deaths with SARSCoV2 is continuing. More deaths and fewer cases compared with the previous wave (August 2022). Currently not blamed on XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant AFAICT. Higher vaccination rates than Britain, both for ≥1 dose and "full": Japan 83%, 82%; Britain 81%, 76%.

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/coronavirus/20230112-83423/

"The fatality rate for coronavirus patients greatly decreased after the omicron variant became the dominant strain of COVID-19. When the delta variant was dominant from July to October 2021, the mortality rate for infected people aged 80 and older was 7.92%, but this figure fell to 1.69% from July to August last year, the ministry said.

Other variants — including the omicron BA.5 subvariant, which is thought to be less virulent than other forms of the coronavirus — remain prevalent during the current eighth wave, meaning there should be no major changes in their virulence. Nevertheless, the death toll continues to increase rapidly.

To explain this seeming anomaly, Atsuo Hamada, a specially appointed professor of travel medicine at Tokyo Medical University, pointed to the large number of infected people and the growing number of elderly people who die from chronic illnesses that worsen after becoming infected with the coronavirus."

More cases than reported, he reckons. Must be like dark matter. I wonder at what point if there is an actual increase in virulence it would be recognised, with this kind of logic.

We should be very sceptical of this learned professor's line of thought, because every serious country will have early warning systems all over the place by now.

In the article you link to Hamada offers "Each and every infection case no longer needs to be identified by the government" as a reason for the number of unreported cases being higher this time. But you already knew that, right?

Yes, Mr Sarkypants. Did my point about early warning systems escape you? Think samples and extrapolation.

It's just that if there is a reasonable explanation for the higher numbers of unreported infections in one of the few bits of a short article that you didn't quote, it seems to me a bit disingenuous to say that it is like "dark matter".

What early warning systems does Japan have in place? No idea, and for all I know they have a more deadly variant circulating (if that is what you are suggesting, as usual you don't say), but I'd like to see some actual evidence of that.

Maybe you just want to say Japan isn't doing enough sequencing of samples, or something, in which case I'd be interested in seeing the actual information you are basing that on.

Foxy said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 26% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
REF: 7% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @techneUK, 11 - 12 Jan

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1614257777270034434?t=rXrjZrHCzKMUnf5D-ga6TA&s=19

Broken, sleazy LibDems and Reform on the slide!

Foxy said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)
REF: 7% (-1)

via @PeoplePolling, 11 - 12 Jan

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1614273883619659776?t=jIc8CgY1tawbukrGinX1JQ&s=19

Sleazy, broken Tories and Reform on the slide!

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)
REF: 7% (-1)

via @PeoplePolling, 11 - 12 Jan

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1614273883619659776?t=jIc8CgY1tawbukrGinX1JQ&s=19

10 polls this year.
9 with a 20% lead or more.
That's a lot of DK's needing to decide to vote Tory after all.

If we could be sure it was about the events of here and now, rather than early 1940's Nazi occupied Europe, it would be interesting to hear the Sultan of Swingback give his views.

The best lead EdM built up was in the low teens, with Conservatives in the low 30's and Labour in the low 40's. That turned out to be Not Enough.

Right now the scores are Conservatives in the low-to-mid 20's and Labour in the mid-to-high 40's, with a lead of twenty percent or more. And "two years to go" is becoming "a bit less than two years to go".

Checking closer. The biggest single poll lead EdM had was 16%.
Sunak hasn't had a closer one than 11%.

That's crossover that is.

Afternoon all

To this observer, the expectations management around the May local elections will be the key. We are already seeing the Conservatives spin is going to be on vote shares rather than seats won or lost.

The 2019 round was horrible for the Conservatives who won a national equivalent 28% of the vote and lost 1,330 Councillors. Labour also polled 28% and lost 84 seats while the LDs won 19% and gained 700 seats. It should also be noted Independents and Residents' groups did very well especially but not exclusively in the Home Counties.

The Conservatives might not lose many seats even if they poll 25% which is what they polled in 1995. In that round, Labour won 47% and gained 1800 seats (LDs gained 23).

One Council as an example: in 1987, the Conservatives won all 40 seats on Bracknell Forest Council - in 1991 they lost 8, seven to Labour and one to the LDs and in 1995 Labour gained a further 15 to take control of the Council with 22 seats, with the Conservatives reduced to 12 and the LDs gaining five to six.

Now, the 42 seat Council has 38 Conservatives, 3 Labour and 1 LD. The vote shares in 2019 were Conservative 57%, Labour 29% and LD 12%. This is the sort of area where I would expect Labour to make strong progress - enough to take control of the Council? Perhaps not, but if Labour can't make a dozen or so gains, it may be the poll number if more illusory than we imagine. If they were to get close to taking control of the Council, then we'd evidence a 1997-style rout for the Conservatives was a real possibility.

Losing Councils like Bracknell Forest would send real alarm through backbench Conservative MPs. The Bracknell seat of James Sunderland is vulnerable on a 20% swing - local results suggesting such a swing as a real possibility could be the signal for a leadership challenge.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

To this observer, the expectations management around the May local elections will be the key. We are already seeing the Conservatives spin is going to be on vote shares rather than seats won or lost.

The 2019 round was horrible for the Conservatives who won a national equivalent 28% of the vote and lost 1,330 Councillors. Labour also polled 28% and lost 84 seats while the LDs won 19% and gained 700 seats. It should also be noted Independents and Residents' groups did very well especially but not exclusively in the Home Counties.

The Conservatives might not lose many seats even if they poll 25% which is what they polled in 1995. In that round, Labour won 47% and gained 1800 seats (LDs gained 23).

One Council as an example: in 1987, the Conservatives won all 40 seats on Bracknell Forest Council - in 1991 they lost 8, seven to Labour and one to the LDs and in 1995 Labour gained a further 15 to take control of the Council with 22 seats, with the Conservatives reduced to 12 and the LDs gaining five to six.

Now, the 42 seat Council has 38 Conservatives, 3 Labour and 1 LD. The vote shares in 2019 were Conservative 57%, Labour 29% and LD 12%. This is the sort of area where I would expect Labour to make strong progress - enough to take control of the Council? Perhaps not, but if Labour can't make a dozen or so gains, it may be the poll number if more illusory than we imagine. If they were to get close to taking control of the Council, then we'd evidence a 1997-style rout for the Conservatives was a real possibility.

Losing Councils like Bracknell Forest would send real alarm through backbench Conservative MPs. The Bracknell seat of James Sunderland is vulnerable on a 20% swing - local results suggesting such a swing as a real possibility could be the signal for a leadership challenge.

They'll also be anxious to compare that raw number of seats lost.
Ignoring that there are so many fewer councillors these days.

In the first round of the Czech Presidential election, Petr Pavel, one of the candidates endorsed by the centre-right SPOLU, has edged into a narrow lead over Andrej Babis of the ANO centre party. Pavel leads 35.2 to 35.1

Danuse Nerudova, who had polled a strong third, has seen her support collapse and she trails well back in third with just 13.9%.

The second round is on 27-28 January and polls suggest Pavel wins a hypothetical run off against Babis 58-42.

Excess deaths would be higher without vaccines.

https://fullfact.org/health/bbc-malhotra-vaccines-excess-deaths/

Speaking of Twitter I found a load of dross in my feed today. It's quickly going the way of Facebook

MoonRabbit said:

Man Utd’s win just confirms they will finish runners up to Man City in my view in the title race this season. It’s not just the run of wins they are on, it’s the fantastic record against top sides. Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal all beaten by them now, that’s a great indicator of a top 2 finish come the end. Who comes 3rd 4th is a toss up between Tottenham, Newcastle and Arsenal - of those 3 sides Tottenham have by far the stronger bench and quality in the squad and better manager, should be one of the two for the CL spot.

Big day tomorrow in the battle for the top four then

Sure, Man Utd have beaten both Arsenal and Man City (they also got thumped at City), but those two wins were with a huge helping hand from the officials.

It's interesting to note that Man Utd have scored 29 goals this season. Eight of those have been against Arsenal and Man City.

Go Southampton! Relegation is looking tasty this season.

Tres said:

Speaking of Twitter I found a load of dross in my feed today. It's quickly going the way of Facebook

I’d avoided a fair amount of the Twitter bullshit changes by using a decent 3rd party app. Yesterday it suddenly got blocked, forcing me to download the official app.

Musk seems determined to monetise the userbase. It does look like Facebook is the model.

We are the product. Our eyeballs are for sale to the highest bidder.

Urgh.

If only WhatsApp hadn’t sold out to Zuck, all those years ago. It could have taken on Facebook and Twitter and ruled the world.

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)
REF: 7% (-1)

via @PeoplePolling, 11 - 12 Jan

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1614273883619659776?t=jIc8CgY1tawbukrGinX1JQ&s=19

10 polls this year.
9 with a 20% lead or more.
That's a lot of DK's needing to decide to vote Tory after all.

Yes the feed algorithm doesn't seem to show me the people that I follow anymore, just random stuff and click bait. As a source of news on subjects that I am interested it is far less useful than previously. It's not just political leaning it is just irrelevant stuff.

One the BBC coverage:

How many Premier League managers could we lose tonight?!

My thoughts precisely.

ping said:

Tres said:

Speaking of Twitter I found a load of dross in my feed today. It's quickly going the way of Facebook

I’d avoided a fair amount of the Twitter bullshit changes by using a decent 3rd party app. Yesterday it suddenly got blocked, forcing me to download the official app.

Musk seems determined to monetise the userbase. It does look like Facebook is the model.

We are the product. Our eyeballs are for sale to the highest bidder.

Urgh.

If only WhatsApp hadn’t sold out to Zuck, all those years ago. It could have taken on Facebook and Twitter and ruled the world.

Re WhatsApp - install Signal. WhatsApp without Suckerberg….

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

Every great thinker needs an Alanbrooke.

Perhaps the forgotten aspect of Churchill was that you could say no to his ideas. And he would actually drop them, if given good reasons. And then oppose others coming up with same idea.

For example, the 9.2” “Ultra” Heavy cruisers proposed in 1940.

Which 9.2" cruisers? News to me!

tlg86 said:

One the BBC coverage:

How many Premier League managers could we lose tonight?!

My thoughts precisely.

Bloody hope that Rogers is one of them!

Leon said:

It is actually a clever innovation. You can toggle twixt the two with a single click

You have to make an extra click to get to the content you actually want to see.

It's shit

538 finally put Liverpool's chances of the title at less than 1%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Everton now favourites to go down (I think Bournemouth ought to be favourites).

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)
REF: 7% (-1)

via @PeoplePolling, 11 - 12 Jan

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1614273883619659776?t=jIc8CgY1tawbukrGinX1JQ&s=19

10 polls this year.
9 with a 20% lead or more.
That's a lot of DK's needing to decide to vote Tory after all.

Yes the feed algorithm doesn't seem to show me the people that I follow anymore, just random stuff and click bait. As a source of news on subjects that I am interested it is far less useful than previously. It's not just political leaning it is just irrelevant stuff.

Yes I found you need to actively click the 'following' tab or you get a load of 'what's popular' garbage.

tlg86 said:

538 finally put Liverpool's chances of the title at less than 1%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Everton now favourites to go down (I think Bournemouth ought to be favourites).

I think the odds on Leicester going down are good value at 4.3 on Bfx. We look hopeless, and have a horrible run of games next.

Theuniondivvie said:

Fackin hell, Twitter is still an education. An account I follow which I thought was a pretty nerdy and respectable one on WWI battlefield topography and archaeology has liked the Andrew Bridgen tweet threatening to sue Hancock for calling him an antisemite.

Bridgen v Hancock would of course be the shittest Alien v Predator ever, and therefore hugely entertaining.

Is he an anti-semite? His comments can perhaps be deemed inappropriate and insensitive, but they aren't anti-semitic in content. If he was trying to belittle the holocaust it's an extremely oblique way to do it. I thought Sunak's response in parliament majoring on this angle of criticism was wrong. I think Sunak should have said that his comments had no scientific basis and that vaccines had been tested (which they have) and had enabled the UK to look beyond covid.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ohnotnow said:

I hadn't come across this before - but have enjoyed a lot of motorway/road chat on here so thought it was worth a link (with apols if it's eye-rollingly familiar)

https://www.roads.org.uk/motorway

https://www.roads.org.uk/Ringways

Yeah - it's quite an impressive body of information. I was surprised I hadn't come across it before.

Cookie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ohnotnow said:

I hadn't come across this before - but have enjoyed a lot of motorway/road chat on here so thought it was worth a link (with apols if it's eye-rollingly familiar)

https://www.roads.org.uk/motorway

https://www.roads.org.uk/Ringways

This is also fun:
https://www.pathetic.org.uk/

Delightful! Feels like I've gone back in time to a happier internet c2002.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Malmesbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I really have got stuff to do, but a battle between @Richard_Tyndall and @Leon is far more tempting than my low calorie lunch. Maybe I should stay awhile. It'll be close, but I think I might bet on @Richard_Tyndall getting the upper. Sorry @Leon old buddy

Beating on Leon is fun but in the end a pointless exercise. No one is convinced by his protestations - even those who agree with him on stuff have to give a wry smile everytime he digs himself into a hole. And like the argument he had with kjh on the last thread, it will just get tedious for everyone else.

Time to let him drown his sorrows once again. After all the sun is well over the yard arm in Bangkok.

His problem is one of self-awareness; he is aware that (in Belbin terms) he is the group ‘Plant’, but unaware that his role is to throw in a few ideas and then stand back while the adults in the room exercise some judgement.

That's one of the reasons Britain in general, and the centre-right in particular, is in the pickle it's in.

Gove and Johnson are both capable op-ed writers. It's a good thing that the Spectator exists to publish an unfiltered stream-of-conciousness from a right wing viewpoint. But their stuff needs filtering before it becomes a programme for government. For every good idea, there are multiple ideas that won't work and ideas that, even if they are workable, aren't good in the cold light of day.

For various reasons, the government is now run by Belbin plants, and the necessary filters between them and the levers of power have been removed.

Every great thinker needs an Alanbrooke.

Perhaps the forgotten aspect of Churchill was that you could say no to his ideas. And he would actually drop them, if given good reasons. And then oppose others coming up with same idea.

For example, the 9.2” “Ultra” Heavy cruisers proposed in 1940.

Which 9.2" cruisers? News to me!

Read “Nelson To Vanguard” by DK Brown

Just after Churchill became First Lord, he asked for a cruiser design carrying 12 x 9.2”

The idea was, with all the treaties out the window, why not go heavier?

It worked out that 3 of them would cost more than 2 battleships. And due to having to design new turrets from scratch, would take 4 years to arrive, versus 3 years for battleships.

Churchill got the point. When the idea resurfaced later in the war, he simply wrote “no” in the margin and killed it immediately.

Edit: for killing enemy cruisers, that was what they were going to keep Hood, Repulse and Renown for. Retire the battle cruisers to their original function - killing cruisers.

Looks like this thread has more info:
https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/warships1discussionboards/rn-1939-9-2in-armoured-cruisers-t40751.html

Yup - note that the DNC was still calling fast battleships “battlecruisers” - he was talking about building more Vanguards. There was a suggestion that as the R class hit their retirement dates that their turrets should get recycled. As it turned out the turrets from Valiant would have been available as well.