Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
Ukraine is however getting new Challenger tanks from the UK
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
The Swiss will not be doing their arms industry much good with this stance.
At least in the west. I wonder if that's part of it? Are they hoping to have new markets when Russia's kit is shown as being pants?
Man Utd’s win just confirms they will finish runners up to Man City in my view in the title race this season. It’s not just the run of wins they are on, it’s the fantastic record against top sides. Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal all beaten by them now, that’s a great indicator of a top 2 finish come the end. Who comes 3rd 4th is a toss up between Tottenham, Newcastle and Arsenal - of those 3 sides Tottenham have by far the stronger bench and quality in the squad and better manager, should be one of the two for the CL spot.
Big day tomorrow in the battle for the top four then
Sure, Man Utd have beaten both Arsenal and Man City (they also got thumped at City), but those two wins were with a huge helping hand from the officials.
It's interesting to note that Man Utd have scored 29 goals this season. Eight of those have been against Arsenal and Man City.
Yes spot on - tomorrow afternoons match is a key one in the battle for top 4 place, denying spurs 2 points would be a good result for arsenal. spurs have the depth in quality of squad and experience of manager to go on a strong run in what remains of the season. I think Arsenal will get 4th spot ahead of Newcastle, but the bench is so thin, any more injuries and the inevitable wobble will be become slump - Arsenal missed top 4 last season because the squad was so thin of quality, clapped out tired and crocked players took the field, and the situation is already little different this time round.
I think we can dismiss misfiring Liverpool and Chelsea from making top 4 this season. I feel sorry for Klopp, it’s like the board havn’t helped him quick enough and it’s not his fault.
538 make Arsenal a 96% change to finish top four. You can lay them at 1.07 if you fancy making a decent amount of money (if you're right, of course).
I think Arsenal will make top 4, no chance of top 2 though - I know a bit about it because dear gf and her Dad are fans, but to me their transfer process has been just too slow to resolve the problem that cost them last season, an okay 11 that’s too knackered at the end without help; two or three quality players can knock the under 20’s off that bench this week, not just negotiate 1 person at a time. Mudryk doesn’t help them much this season, he hasn’t played 90 minutes for months! He might settle in okay in future though. Not worth more than Gapko tbh, they are paying way over the top.
Well, good job Mudryk is on his way to Stamford Bridge!
Yes it is.
Arsenal weren’t far off paying the same daft fee. They have dodged a “price tag on players back he won’t ever live up to” bullet in my opinion.
To be fair, unproven in proper football league and needing a lot of work, Mudryk pace and strength is still a fair gamble for rigours of the Premiership, but only about £35m plus some add ons taking it to around £50m. Whoever ends up signing him won’t get much from him this season as he needs to settle in and find some sort of match fitness. He can’t just be thrown in without a pre season build up, he’ll get injured.
It could be be argued Arsenals interest in him, when the rest of the footballing world (Latin and Premiership giants and PSG) weren’t interested in taking the Mudryk gamble, has led to Chelsea paying way way over the top in their lust just to do signings that’s available at this time in this window - Chelsea and everyone will have more and far better options come the summer, but will Chelsea already be too close to their fair play limit by then?
Peace talks plan: moves to reconcile Prince Harry with the Windsors before the coronation
Royal insiders believe there’s a chance of a reunion. But they need to persuade William and Kate to put Harry’s outbursts behind them
A royal source, who has the King’s ear and who knows the Sussexes well, believes a reconciliation meeting will happen in the coming months and needs to take place before the coronation on Saturday, May 6. “It’s going to take flexibility on all sides, but it can be done, it’s fixable,” says the source. “It needs Harry over here, in the room with the King and Prince of Wales, a couple of other family members, some of ‘his people’ he trusts who always had his back, so he doesn’t think he’s being ambushed. Someone like Elf [Ed Lane Fox, Harry’s former private secretary] and Christopher [Lord Geidt, the late Queen’s former private secretary who advised the Sussexes].
“Both sides need to hold their hands up and admit we didn’t get everything right, and we got a lot wrong, and we have to say to him ‘we understand the pain you’ve been through’. The King can do it.”
Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to be mediator between the Sussexes and the rest of the royal family as apparently one of the few establishment figures trusted by both sides.
Personally I would offer them roles as Ambassadors to the Commonwealth as they are interested in but formally restrict HRHs to working royals
They'd be working Royals then would they not?
Shoulda gone for Sentamu, what with the colour thang and him being retired. Charles is Welby's boss. But perhaps we are in a Don't mention the Y word period of royal PR.
Not full time working royals no and certainly not even part time working royals in the UK so they would still not be HRHs, though they would keep Duke and Duchess. It would be a similar solution as was found for Edward and Wallis. He became Governor of the Bahamas, they were Duke and Duchess of Windsor but she was not HRH.
Welby is more woke and liberal than Sentamu who despite being black is more socially conservative than the Archbishop of Canterbury and does not even approve of marrying divorcees like Meghan in church. Whereas Welby did Harry and Meghan’s wedding
Welby did that because he is Charles's and was HMQ's lackey. That's the point.
The Church of England allows clergy to marry divorcees unlike say the Roman Catholic Church (who just allow it for those like Boris who have never been married in a Catholic Church before) but on a conscience basis
Indeed, an Archbishop in these islands is a divorcee who has remarried.
I never previously had you down as a magic mushroom enthusiast.
You thought I played with my massive organ merely for my own amusement?
I was having a consultation about that today actually. It's got lots of cracks in it from overuse and is struggling to maintain full pressure.
In the good old days assigning another choirboy to the pump handle would restore me to full volume, but these days I need electricity to power my Tuba Magna. Still, the ladies of the congregation appreciate the end result.
Well, in this case there is a concern that when I pull out my 16 foot horn for the big climax it will all flop.
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
A neutral country which I suspect has a rather large sum deposited from Russian oligarchs and politicians in it?
Manhattan of course has a wonderful grid system. I don’t know if this eases traffic, but I want to say it seems easier to travel up and downtown than London which by the time I left has become perma-gridlocked by road closures and low traffic neighbourhoods.
London also has all these weird gyratories and other schemes, some of which have admittedly been removed, but seem to further clog and destroy localities where they still remain.
The disaster that is Aldgate, for example, or the mad five way system that is King’s Cross-Caledonian-Euston-Gray’s Inn Road.
When I was in the US I was reading an interesting book about the origins of New York’s grid street plan. Which was actually developed when there already roads and tracks in place, many dating from the original Dutch settlement. The process of surveying the land and mapping out the proposed street plan was very controversial - involving surveyors encroaching onto private land - in once case mapping out a road that would run through someone’s kitchen, resulting in litigation, and the council had to adopt special powers to force its plans - which were drawn and redrawn several times, through. A fair few properties were demolished to impose the grid onto the city.
On the London case, I have a copy of the original London plan that had concentric rings of highways mapped out around the capital, which included a South Circular built to a similar standard to the North. These proposals over-reached and were strongly resisted and eventually watered down considerably, although they did plant the seed that eventually led to the M25.
A lot of uptown Manhattan was basically outcrops of rock, impossible to build on. Developers had to blast it away in order to create orderly flat plots.
There are still or two weird outcrops remaining, such as “Mount Tom”, upon which Edgar Allan Poe liked to sit and gaze out over the Hudson River.
Peace talks plan: moves to reconcile Prince Harry with the Windsors before the coronation
Royal insiders believe there’s a chance of a reunion. But they need to persuade William and Kate to put Harry’s outbursts behind them
A royal source, who has the King’s ear and who knows the Sussexes well, believes a reconciliation meeting will happen in the coming months and needs to take place before the coronation on Saturday, May 6. “It’s going to take flexibility on all sides, but it can be done, it’s fixable,” says the source. “It needs Harry over here, in the room with the King and Prince of Wales, a couple of other family members, some of ‘his people’ he trusts who always had his back, so he doesn’t think he’s being ambushed. Someone like Elf [Ed Lane Fox, Harry’s former private secretary] and Christopher [Lord Geidt, the late Queen’s former private secretary who advised the Sussexes].
“Both sides need to hold their hands up and admit we didn’t get everything right, and we got a lot wrong, and we have to say to him ‘we understand the pain you’ve been through’. The King can do it.”
Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to be mediator between the Sussexes and the rest of the royal family as apparently one of the few establishment figures trusted by both sides.
Personally I would offer them roles as Ambassadors to the Commonwealth as they are interested in but formally restrict HRHs to working royals
They'd be working Royals then would they not?
Shoulda gone for Sentamu, what with the colour thang and him being retired. Charles is Welby's boss. But perhaps we are in a Don't mention the Y word period of royal PR.
Not full time working royals no and certainly not even part time working royals in the UK so they would still not be HRHs, though they would keep Duke and Duchess. It would be a similar solution as was found for Edward and Wallis. He became Governor of the Bahamas, they were Duke and Duchess of Windsor but she was not HRH.
Welby is more woke and liberal than Sentamu who despite being black is more socially conservative than the Archbishop of Canterbury and does not even approve of marrying divorcees like Meghan in church. Whereas Welby did Harry and Meghan’s wedding
Welby did that because he is Charles's and was HMQ's lackey. That's the point.
The Church of England allows clergy to marry divorcees unlike say the Roman Catholic Church (who just allow it for those like Boris who have never been married in a Catholic Church before) but on a conscience basis
Indeed, an Archbishop in these islands is a divorcee who has remarried.
I never previously had you down as a magic mushroom enthusiast.
You thought I played with my massive organ merely for my own amusement?
I was having a consultation about that today actually. It's got lots of cracks in it from overuse and is struggling to maintain full pressure.
In the good old days assigning another choirboy to the pump handle would restore me to full volume, but these days I need electricity to power my Tuba Magna. Still, the ladies of the congregation appreciate the end result.
Well, in this case there is a concern that when I pull out my 16 foot horn for the big climax it will all flop.
Can't imagine what it was that motivated you to take up that particular hobby.
Peace talks plan: moves to reconcile Prince Harry with the Windsors before the coronation
Royal insiders believe there’s a chance of a reunion. But they need to persuade William and Kate to put Harry’s outbursts behind them
A royal source, who has the King’s ear and who knows the Sussexes well, believes a reconciliation meeting will happen in the coming months and needs to take place before the coronation on Saturday, May 6. “It’s going to take flexibility on all sides, but it can be done, it’s fixable,” says the source. “It needs Harry over here, in the room with the King and Prince of Wales, a couple of other family members, some of ‘his people’ he trusts who always had his back, so he doesn’t think he’s being ambushed. Someone like Elf [Ed Lane Fox, Harry’s former private secretary] and Christopher [Lord Geidt, the late Queen’s former private secretary who advised the Sussexes].
“Both sides need to hold their hands up and admit we didn’t get everything right, and we got a lot wrong, and we have to say to him ‘we understand the pain you’ve been through’. The King can do it.”
Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to be mediator between the Sussexes and the rest of the royal family as apparently one of the few establishment figures trusted by both sides.
Personally I would offer them roles as Ambassadors to the Commonwealth as they are interested in but formally restrict HRHs to working royals
They'd be working Royals then would they not?
Shoulda gone for Sentamu, what with the colour thang and him being retired. Charles is Welby's boss. But perhaps we are in a Don't mention the Y word period of royal PR.
Not full time working royals no and certainly not even part time working royals in the UK so they would still not be HRHs, though they would keep Duke and Duchess. It would be a similar solution as was found for Edward and Wallis. He became Governor of the Bahamas, they were Duke and Duchess of Windsor but she was not HRH.
Welby is more woke and liberal than Sentamu who despite being black is more socially conservative than the Archbishop of Canterbury and does not even approve of marrying divorcees like Meghan in church. Whereas Welby did Harry and Meghan’s wedding
Welby did that because he is Charles's and was HMQ's lackey. That's the point.
The Church of England allows clergy to marry divorcees unlike say the Roman Catholic Church (who just allow it for those like Boris who have never been married in a Catholic Church before) but on a conscience basis
Indeed, an Archbishop in these islands is a divorcee who has remarried.
I never previously had you down as a magic mushroom enthusiast.
You thought I played with my massive organ merely for my own amusement?
I was having a consultation about that today actually. It's got lots of cracks in it from overuse and is struggling to maintain full pressure.
In the good old days assigning another choirboy to the pump handle would restore me to full volume, but these days I need electricity to power my Tuba Magna. Still, the ladies of the congregation appreciate the end result.
Well, in this case there is a concern that when I pull out my 16 foot horn for the big climax it will all flop.
Can't imagine what it was that motivated you to take up that particular hobby.
Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating has taken a significant dip since December, driven mainly by an increase in the % who disapprove of his performance. Sunak’s net rating is -14%, down from -7% before Christmas.
Keir Starmer’s net rating remains narrowly positive at +2 vs. +3 just before Christmas
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
A neutral country which I suspect has a rather large sum deposited from Russian oligarchs and politicians in it?
Here is today’s Tradle. Switzerland.
Lots of gold there. Not many naturally occurring gold deposits.
Nothing much has happened in the polls since Hunt's mini-budget. Sunak got a bounce by not being Truss, but nowhere near enough to close the gap. And the government need an awfully big win from somewhere to change that.
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
A neutral country which I suspect has a rather large sum deposited from Russian oligarchs and politicians in it?
Here is today’s Tradle. Switzerland.
Lots of gold there. Not many naturally occurring gold deposits.
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
A neutral country which I suspect has a rather large sum deposited from Russian oligarchs and politicians in it?
Here is today’s Tradle. Switzerland.
Lots of gold there. Not many naturally occurring gold deposits.
Switzerland has blocked the supply of Aspide air defense systems to Ukraine The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
A neutral country which I suspect has a rather large sum deposited from Russian oligarchs and politicians in it?
Here is today’s Tradle. Switzerland.
Lots of gold there. Not many naturally occurring gold deposits.
“pretty much” Spot on predicted by one pollster down thread 😌
It’s not a bad poll for the Tory’s as it didn’t drop a notch despite the awful media narrative, probably sets the scene for polling recovery from all other pollsters of a point or two, moving Con average from 26 to 27 over next two weeks before next Opinium.
Manhattan of course has a wonderful grid system. I don’t know if this eases traffic, but I want to say it seems easier to travel up and downtown than London which by the time I left has become perma-gridlocked by road closures and low traffic neighbourhoods.
London also has all these weird gyratories and other schemes, some of which have admittedly been removed, but seem to further clog and destroy localities where they still remain.
The disaster that is Aldgate, for example, or the mad five way system that is King’s Cross-Caledonian-Euston-Gray’s Inn Road.
When I was in the US I was reading an interesting book about the origins of New York’s grid street plan. Which was actually developed when there already roads and tracks in place, many dating from the original Dutch settlement. The process of surveying the land and mapping out the proposed street plan was very controversial - involving surveyors encroaching onto private land - in once case mapping out a road that would run through someone’s kitchen, resulting in litigation, and the council had to adopt special powers to force its plans - which were drawn and redrawn several times, through. A fair few properties were demolished to impose the grid onto the city.
On the London case, I have a copy of the original London plan that had concentric rings of highways mapped out around the capital, which included a South Circular built to a similar standard to the North. These proposals over-reached and were strongly resisted and eventually watered down considerably, although they did plant the seed that eventually led to the M25.
A lot of uptown Manhattan was basically outcrops of rock, impossible to build on. Developers had to blast it away in order to create orderly flat plots.
There are still or two weird outcrops remaining, such as “Mount Tom”, upon which Edgar Allan Poe liked to sit and gaze out over the Hudson River.
Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating has taken a significant dip since December, driven mainly by an increase in the % who disapprove of his performance. Sunak’s net rating is -14%, down from -7% before Christmas.
Keir Starmer’s net rating remains narrowly positive at +2 vs. +3 just before Christmas
“pretty much” Spot on predicted by one pollster down thread 😌
It’s not a bad poll for the Tory’s as it didn’t drop a notch despite the awful media narrative, probably sets the scene for polling recovery from all other pollsters of a point or two, moving Con average from 26 to 27 over next two weeks before next Opinium.
I am sure you are instinctively correct and there will be a massive Conservative poll lead before we know it. That said, there is nothing in this poll to suggest that direction of travel yet.
Man Utd’s win just confirms they will finish runners up to Man City in my view in the title race this season. It’s not just the run of wins they are on, it’s the fantastic record against top sides. Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal all beaten by them now, that’s a great indicator of a top 2 finish come the end. Who comes 3rd 4th is a toss up between Tottenham, Newcastle and Arsenal - of those 3 sides Tottenham have by far the stronger bench and quality in the squad and better manager, should be one of the two for the CL spot.
Big day tomorrow in the battle for the top four then
Sure, Man Utd have beaten both Arsenal and Man City (they also got thumped at City), but those two wins were with a huge helping hand from the officials.
It's interesting to note that Man Utd have scored 29 goals this season. Eight of those have been against Arsenal and Man City.
Yes spot on - tomorrow afternoons match is a key one in the battle for top 4 place, denying spurs 2 points would be a good result for arsenal. spurs have the depth in quality of squad and experience of manager to go on a strong run in what remains of the season. I think Arsenal will get 4th spot ahead of Newcastle, but the bench is so thin, any more injuries and the inevitable wobble will be become slump - Arsenal missed top 4 last season because the squad was so thin of quality, clapped out tired and crocked players took the field, and the situation is already little different this time round.
I think we can dismiss misfiring Liverpool and Chelsea from making top 4 this season. I feel sorry for Klopp, it’s like the board havn’t helped him quick enough and it’s not his fault.
538 make Arsenal a 96% change to finish top four. You can lay them at 1.07 if you fancy making a decent amount of money (if you're right, of course).
I think Arsenal will make top 4, no chance of top 2 though - I know a bit about it because dear gf and her Dad are fans, but to me their transfer process has been just too slow to resolve the problem that cost them last season, an okay 11 that’s too knackered at the end without help; two or three quality players can knock the under 20’s off that bench this week, not just negotiate 1 person at a time. Mudryk doesn’t help them much this season, he hasn’t played 90 minutes for months! He might settle in okay in future though. Not worth more than Gapko tbh, they are paying way over the top.
Well, good job Mudryk is on his way to Stamford Bridge!
Yes it is.
Arsenal weren’t far off paying the same daft fee. They have dodged a “price tag on players back he won’t ever live up to” bullet in my opinion.
To be fair, unproven in proper football league and needing a lot of work, Mudryk pace and strength is still a fair gamble for rigours of the Premiership, but only about £35m plus some add ons taking it to around £50m. Whoever ends up signing him won’t get much from him this season as he needs to settle in and find some sort of match fitness. He can’t just be thrown in without a pre season build up, he’ll get injured.
It could be be argued Arsenals interest in him, when the rest of the footballing world (Latin and Premiership giants and PSG) weren’t interested in taking the Mudryk gamble, has led to Chelsea paying way way over the top in their lust just to do signings that’s available at this time in this window - Chelsea and everyone will have more and far better options come the summer, but will Chelsea already be too close to their fair play limit by then?
Reckless in haste, suffer at leisure. 😈
In the summer Arsenal can pick up Lozano for a lot less than £80M and he’s a fully developed product entering the height of his career, will deliver so much more over next 4 seasons for Arsenal, than the hard work and patience for Chelsea and their fans need for Mudryk.
I know all this because I am an expert at Football as well as accurately predicting voting intent polls.
Lozano, Savic (though he won’t go to Arsenal), Vlahovic (he might come to Top 4 Prem side, but Osimhen, who probably won’t be interested in Arsenal can be so much better signing for Arsenal than Vlahovic) these the sort of signing Arsenal should be targeting to become a top 3 side. They didn’t do enough last summer is the truth why they are short again from now in the run in till end of season - these names are the kind of deals they need to make next summer, IF they manage a top four finish and euro money in coming months, to become Prem top 3 for next season - as fully proven as possible from Big leagues - Not £80M on Mudryk. Some deals are only possible if you make top 4, and rarely are good players surrendered by their club halfway through a season these days. Arsenal need to concentrate on sealing top 4 and recruiting well in summer.
And that task begins Sunday afternoon, trying to deny a dangerous chaser 2 points.
Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating has taken a significant dip since December, driven mainly by an increase in the % who disapprove of his performance. Sunak’s net rating is -14%, down from -7% before Christmas.
Keir Starmer’s net rating remains narrowly positive at +2 vs. +3 just before Christmas
Keir Starmer has a narrow lead over Rishi Sunak on the Best PM question.
Starmer 29% (+1) Sunak 26% (-1) None of these 28% (nc) Don’t know 17% (nc)
It can be portrayed as a tiny lead, but like in the Wilton now too, it is a lead, and it’s growing.
The big discrepancy in the polling at the moment is the difference between Con vs. Lab (Labour well ahead) and Sunak vs. Starmer (neck and neck if you squint a bit). Closing that discrepancy either means the Conservatives improving their standing, or Sunak's ratings getting worse.
One of those is much easier to imagine than the other.
The Tory polling trend of drift with a slight negative bias is pretty disastrous. Bear in mind they are drifting and slightly declining from cataclysmic wipeout levels.
Peace talks plan: moves to reconcile Prince Harry with the Windsors before the coronation
Royal insiders believe there’s a chance of a reunion. But they need to persuade William and Kate to put Harry’s outbursts behind them
A royal source, who has the King’s ear and who knows the Sussexes well, believes a reconciliation meeting will happen in the coming months and needs to take place before the coronation on Saturday, May 6. “It’s going to take flexibility on all sides, but it can be done, it’s fixable,” says the source. “It needs Harry over here, in the room with the King and Prince of Wales, a couple of other family members, some of ‘his people’ he trusts who always had his back, so he doesn’t think he’s being ambushed. Someone like Elf [Ed Lane Fox, Harry’s former private secretary] and Christopher [Lord Geidt, the late Queen’s former private secretary who advised the Sussexes].
“Both sides need to hold their hands up and admit we didn’t get everything right, and we got a lot wrong, and we have to say to him ‘we understand the pain you’ve been through’. The King can do it.”
Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to be mediator between the Sussexes and the rest of the royal family as apparently one of the few establishment figures trusted by both sides.
Personally I would offer them roles as Ambassadors to the Commonwealth as they are interested in but formally restrict HRHs to working royals
They'd be working Royals then would they not?
Shoulda gone for Sentamu, what with the colour thang and him being retired. Charles is Welby's boss. But perhaps we are in a Don't mention the Y word period of royal PR.
Not full time working royals no and certainly not even part time working royals in the UK so they would still not be HRHs, though they would keep Duke and Duchess. It would be a similar solution as was found for Edward and Wallis. He became Governor of the Bahamas, they were Duke and Duchess of Windsor but she was not HRH.
Welby is more woke and liberal than Sentamu who despite being black is more socially conservative than the Archbishop of Canterbury and does not even approve of marrying divorcees like Meghan in church. Whereas Welby did Harry and Meghan’s wedding
Welby did that because he is Charles's and was HMQ's lackey. That's the point.
The Church of England allows clergy to marry divorcees unlike say the Roman Catholic Church (who just allow it for those like Boris who have never been married in a Catholic Church before) but on a conscience basis
Indeed, an Archbishop in these islands is a divorcee who has remarried.
I never previously had you down as a magic mushroom enthusiast.
You thought I played with my massive organ merely for my own amusement?
I was having a consultation about that today actually. It's got lots of cracks in it from overuse and is struggling to maintain full pressure.
In the good old days assigning another choirboy to the pump handle would restore me to full volume, but these days I need electricity to power my Tuba Magna. Still, the ladies of the congregation appreciate the end result.
Well, in this case there is a concern that when I pull out my 16 foot horn for the big climax it will all flop.
Can't imagine what it was that motivated you to take up that particular hobby.
Peace talks plan: moves to reconcile Prince Harry with the Windsors before the coronation
Royal insiders believe there’s a chance of a reunion. But they need to persuade William and Kate to put Harry’s outbursts behind them
A royal source, who has the King’s ear and who knows the Sussexes well, believes a reconciliation meeting will happen in the coming months and needs to take place before the coronation on Saturday, May 6. “It’s going to take flexibility on all sides, but it can be done, it’s fixable,” says the source. “It needs Harry over here, in the room with the King and Prince of Wales, a couple of other family members, some of ‘his people’ he trusts who always had his back, so he doesn’t think he’s being ambushed. Someone like Elf [Ed Lane Fox, Harry’s former private secretary] and Christopher [Lord Geidt, the late Queen’s former private secretary who advised the Sussexes].
“Both sides need to hold their hands up and admit we didn’t get everything right, and we got a lot wrong, and we have to say to him ‘we understand the pain you’ve been through’. The King can do it.”
Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to be mediator between the Sussexes and the rest of the royal family as apparently one of the few establishment figures trusted by both sides.
Personally I would offer them roles as Ambassadors to the Commonwealth as they are interested in but formally restrict HRHs to working royals
They'd be working Royals then would they not?
Shoulda gone for Sentamu, what with the colour thang and him being retired. Charles is Welby's boss. But perhaps we are in a Don't mention the Y word period of royal PR.
Not full time working royals no and certainly not even part time working royals in the UK so they would still not be HRHs, though they would keep Duke and Duchess. It would be a similar solution as was found for Edward and Wallis. He became Governor of the Bahamas, they were Duke and Duchess of Windsor but she was not HRH.
Welby is more woke and liberal than Sentamu who despite being black is more socially conservative than the Archbishop of Canterbury and does not even approve of marrying divorcees like Meghan in church. Whereas Welby did Harry and Meghan’s wedding
Welby did that because he is Charles's and was HMQ's lackey. That's the point.
The Church of England allows clergy to marry divorcees unlike say the Roman Catholic Church (who just allow it for those like Boris who have never been married in a Catholic Church before) but on a conscience basis
Indeed, an Archbishop in these islands is a divorcee who has remarried.
I never previously had you down as a magic mushroom enthusiast.
You thought I played with my massive organ merely for my own amusement?
I was having a consultation about that today actually. It's got lots of cracks in it from overuse and is struggling to maintain full pressure.
In the good old days assigning another choirboy to the pump handle would restore me to full volume, but these days I need electricity to power my Tuba Magna. Still, the ladies of the congregation appreciate the end result.
Well, in this case there is a concern that when I pull out my 16 foot horn for the big climax it will all flop.
Can't imagine what it was that motivated you to take up that particular hobby.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
“at real elections”
Change elections, where a government is hated and kicked out, are real elections too, but don’t happen all that often. I stand by all the reasoning I just gave for a solid right wing protest against Tories, and fear factor of opposition not so powerful next time, resulting in a drift from Tory to Reform in next election - its exactly what you would expect to see on a change of government night.
And as for the “real current state, Tories on 32% not 26%” you are having a bubble. Swing back Opinium don’t even have them near 32% 😁
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Note that the FDA (along with all the other notional agencies) continues to monitor vaccine safety. And continues to publish accounts of possible side effects even when the data is of only marginal statistical significance.
“pretty much” Spot on predicted by one pollster down thread 😌
It’s not a bad poll for the Tory’s as it didn’t drop a notch despite the awful media narrative, probably sets the scene for polling recovery from all other pollsters of a point or two, moving Con average from 26 to 27 over next two weeks before next Opinium.
I am sure you are instinctively correct and there will be a massive Conservative poll lead before we know it. That said, there is nothing in this poll to suggest that direction of travel yet.
Yes there is. By swingback poll not dropping one point, this poll screams at us the Tories will get a lot of +1’s and +2’s over the coming two weeks.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Note that the FDA (along with all the other notional agencies) continues to monitor vaccine safety. And continues to publish accounts of possible side effects even when the data is of only marginal statistical significance.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
“already” presupposes a direction of travel which is far from established, and far from guaranteed.
The Tory polling trend of drift with a slight negative bias is pretty disastrous. Bear in mind they are drifting and slightly declining from cataclysmic wipeout levels.
Indeed. Try to ignore the bumps caused by Covid, Ukraine, PM changes, and budget disasters, and the Tory line has been descending pretty consistently from c.50% two years ago to c.25% now.
Maybe it will bounce back after it hits the x-axis?
The Tory polling trend of drift with a slight negative bias is pretty disastrous. Bear in mind they are drifting and slightly declining from cataclysmic wipeout levels.
Indeed. Try to ignore the bumps caused by Covid, Ukraine, PM changes, and budget disasters, and the Tory line has been descending pretty consistently from c.50% two years ago to c.25% now.
Maybe it will bounce back after it hits the x-axis?
Crudely projecting forward, the election in late 2024 should come around the 10% mark?
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
The Tory polling trend of drift with a slight negative bias is pretty disastrous. Bear in mind they are drifting and slightly declining from cataclysmic wipeout levels.
Indeed. Try to ignore the bumps caused by Covid, Ukraine, PM changes, and budget disasters, and the Tory line has been descending pretty consistently from c.50% two years ago to c.25% now.
Maybe it will bounce back after it hits the x-axis?
Crudely projecting forward, the election in late 2024 should come around the 10% mark?
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
Even that would be a massive achievement, chan ging an 80 seat loss into an 80 seat majority.
Common sense and precedence would suggest the Tories will come back somewhat over the next two years and a Labour-led hung parliament will ensue after the next GE. Except, where and how are the Tories going to win back support?
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
Even that would be a massive achievement, chan ging an 80 seat loss into an 80 seat majority.
Common sense and precedence would suggest the Tories will come back somewhat over the next two years and a Labour-led hung parliament will ensue after the next GE. Except, where and how are the Tories going to win back support?
What we need to do is construct our own ‘swingometer’ of PB Tories, lining them up from the most rabidly extreme (Leon) and those wavering in the Sunak camp like Big_G, through Casino through Mark and on to the more moderate Tory prospective defectors such as TSE and Topping. If we can get the order right then we should be able to monitor any swingback most precisely.
City consensus forecast on Monday should now show that the UK will avoid a recession. Compared to late last year where the prediction was some neverending doom cycle everything has changed. I noticed all the way back in November that the on the ground experience didn't match what the models suggested was happening. Now we have confirmation of that in the actual GDP data and employment numbers which are still rising.
My current gut feeling is that the UK will end 2023 at about 0.9-1.1% growth, not exactly an earth shattering figure but definitely better than was pencilled in late last year. I think that level would put us in the middle of the pack within the G20 and near the top of the pack in the G7.
What would be really reassuring for businesses is if the official forecasters start moving to the City consensus by the end of Feb and we can see the BoE recant their idiotically negative recession forecasts and Treasury numbers showing no recession will get businesses investing again. I worry that Bailey and the rest of them are too proud to back down and would prefer to be right about their predicted recession than to admit they got it wrong. I assume that will be the case for the OECD and IMF but no one takes their forecasting seriously anyway, big businesses do put the BoE forecast into their investment modeling.
"Among the most ingenious moments in Kraftwerk’s admirable oeuvre is the point in 1981’s “Pocket Calculator” when a human voice self-contentedly sings: “By pressing down a special key / It plays a little melody.” The melody follows in confirmation. The genius here seems to lie in the blunt honesty of the singer, owning up to the contemporary condition of music as an art form that has largely been outsourced to machines. It’s not that the German electronic band invented the technology, nor that they were the first to make use of it. They are simply among the first to figure out how to elevate it to self-awareness, and to press it into a gesture of timely irony and potentially timeless beauty; that is, to make art out of it.
The little melody in question is of course a pre-set. Its sequence of notes is planned in advance, and once the key is pressed, the machine may be relied upon to do only the thing it has been programmed to do. The melody, it goes without saying, is no Bach fugue. It is simple, naïve, kind of dumb; and within the context of the song, it is utterly compelling.
Several conditions — technological, cultural, historical — had to fall into place in order for this melodic interlude, with its verbal introduction, to come across to the critical listener as an expression of genius. All of these conditions might be cited in response to any philistine tempted to declare, of the pressing down of that special key, that “I could have done that too”. We are used to hearing such petulant ressentiment, especially in connection with the 20th-century avant-garde in the figurative arts: “I could have entered a urinal in an exhibition, too”; “I could have painted an all-white monochrome, too”; etc. The simplest response is, “Yes, but you didn’t”."
"Among the most ingenious moments in Kraftwerk’s admirable oeuvre is the point in 1981’s “Pocket Calculator” when a human voice self-contentedly sings: “By pressing down a special key / It plays a little melody.” The melody follows in confirmation. The genius here seems to lie in the blunt honesty of the singer, owning up to the contemporary condition of music as an art form that has largely been outsourced to machines. It’s not that the German electronic band invented the technology, nor that they were the first to make use of it. They are simply among the first to figure out how to elevate it to self-awareness, and to press it into a gesture of timely irony and potentially timeless beauty; that is, to make art out of it.
The little melody in question is of course a pre-set. Its sequence of notes is planned in advance, and once the key is pressed, the machine may be relied upon to do only the thing it has been programmed to do. The melody, it goes without saying, is no Bach fugue. It is simple, naïve, kind of dumb; and within the context of the song, it is utterly compelling.
Several conditions — technological, cultural, historical — had to fall into place in order for this melodic interlude, with its verbal introduction, to come across to the critical listener as an expression of genius. All of these conditions might be cited in response to any philistine tempted to declare, of the pressing down of that special key, that “I could have done that too”. We are used to hearing such petulant ressentiment, especially in connection with the 20th-century avant-garde in the figurative arts: “I could have entered a urinal in an exhibition, too”; “I could have painted an all-white monochrome, too”; etc. The simplest response is, “Yes, but you didn’t”."
Trying too hard, surely? This could have been done at any time since 1857, he doesn't know what fugue means, why shouldn't the calculator play say a bit of Tarrega's Gran Vals, I have painted plenty of things white monochrome in my time. etc etc.
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
Even that would be a massive achievement, chan ging an 80 seat loss into an 80 seat majority.
Common sense and precedence would suggest the Tories will come back somewhat over the next two years and a Labour-led hung parliament will ensue after the next GE. Except, where and how are the Tories going to win back support?
What we need to do is construct our own ‘swingometer’ of PB Tories, lining them up from the most rabidly extreme (Leon) and those wavering in the Sunak camp like Big_G, through Casino through Mark and on to the more moderate Tory prospective defectors such as TSE and Topping. If we can get the order right then we should be able to monitor any swingback most precisely.
I have voted Conservative in 7 out of last 10 General elections and helped out canvassing or delivering in 5 of them. I very much expect I will vote that way again now Truss is gone but it is hard to imagine me helping out,
Not at all. The smaller parties are hard to poll, so it may say 5 or 6 this time, 8 or 9 next time.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
I think the real current vote share is something like:
Con 32% Lab 47% Lib 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Even that, with the new boundaries and assuming no tactical voting, gives a Labour majority of 82 and Con below 200 seats according to Electoral Calculus.
I doubt Labour get 47% they are already down to 45% with Opinium tonight.
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
Er... the previous two Opiniums had Labour on 44% and 43%, so Labour are actually climbing according to Opinium.
Yet still not on 47% in any of them and Opinium were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2019.
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
Even that would be a massive achievement, chan ging an 80 seat loss into an 80 seat majority.
Common sense and precedence would suggest the Tories will come back somewhat over the next two years and a Labour-led hung parliament will ensue after the next GE. Except, where and how are the Tories going to win back support?
What we need to do is construct our own ‘swingometer’ of PB Tories, lining them up from the most rabidly extreme (Leon) and those wavering in the Sunak camp like Big_G, through Casino through Mark and on to the more moderate Tory prospective defectors such as TSE and Topping. If we can get the order right then we should be able to monitor any swingback most precisely.
I have voted Conservative in 7 out of last 10 General elections and helped out canvassing or delivering in 5 of them. I very much expect I will vote that way again now Truss is gone but it is hard to imagine me helping out,
I really don't think so many people will want to help much after all the shenanigans, and that will make a difference in the marginals wherever they are now.
Comments
The Swiss had NO problem selling air defence systems to Qatar to protect stadiums during the soccer World Cup
Even if 🇮🇪 wanted to send Mowag Ambulances it would be blocked
https://twitter.com/EastVeterans/status/1614193611654025218
Why would a neutral country which supplies weapons systems block the supply of defensive systems to a country which has been invaded ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64274755
At least in the west. I wonder if that's part of it? Are they hoping to have new markets when Russia's kit is shown as being pants?
Now I've said that @Northern_Al has probably put £5000 on him...
Arsenal weren’t far off paying the same daft fee. They have dodged a “price tag on players back he won’t ever live up to” bullet in my opinion.
To be fair, unproven in proper football league and needing a lot of work, Mudryk pace and strength is still a fair gamble for rigours of the Premiership, but only about £35m plus some add ons taking it to around £50m. Whoever ends up signing him won’t get much from him this season as he needs to settle in and find some sort of match fitness. He can’t just be thrown in without a pre season build up, he’ll get injured.
It could be be argued Arsenals interest in him, when the rest of the footballing world (Latin and Premiership giants and PSG) weren’t interested in taking the Mudryk gamble, has led to Chelsea paying way way over the top in their lust just to do signings that’s available at this time in this window - Chelsea and everyone will have more and far better options come the summer, but will Chelsea already be too close to their fair play limit by then?
Reckless in haste, suffer at leisure. 😈
watching paint drysnooker.I remember sitting with the dog on top of those Central Park rocks, watching out for squirrels
Con 29% (nc)
Lab 45% (+1)
Lib Dems 9% (nc)
Green 5% (nc)
ReformUK 6% (-2)
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352485795221504
Hat. Coat.
Keir Starmer’s net rating remains narrowly positive at +2 vs. +3 just before Christmas
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1614352496113381377
Lots of gold there. Not many naturally occurring gold deposits.
It’s not a bad poll for the Tory’s as it didn’t drop a notch despite the awful media narrative, probably sets the scene for polling recovery from all other pollsters of a point or two, moving Con average from 26 to 27 over next two weeks before next Opinium.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007jv69
(Obv. as per - unavailable via the BBC)
Keir Starmer has a narrow lead over Rishi Sunak on the Best PM question.
Starmer 29% (+1)
Sunak 26% (-1)
None of these 28% (nc)
Don’t know 17% (nc)
It can be portrayed as a tiny lead, but like in the Wilton now too, it is a lead, and it’s growing.
I know all this because I am an expert at Football as well as accurately predicting voting intent polls.
Lozano, Savic (though he won’t go to Arsenal), Vlahovic (he might come to Top 4 Prem side, but Osimhen, who probably won’t be interested in Arsenal can be so much better signing for Arsenal than Vlahovic) these the sort of signing Arsenal should be targeting to become a top 3 side. They didn’t do enough last summer is the truth why they are short again from now in the run in till end of season - these names are the kind of deals they need to make next summer, IF they manage a top four finish and euro money in coming months, to become Prem top 3 for next season - as fully proven as possible from Big leagues - Not £80M on Mudryk. Some deals are only possible if you make top 4, and rarely are good players surrendered by their club halfway through a season these days. Arsenal need to concentrate on sealing top 4 and recruiting well in summer.
And that task begins Sunday afternoon, trying to deny a dangerous chaser 2 points.
One of those is much easier to imagine than the other.
With the 2019-2024 Tory government utterly failing on taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes and NHS not every right of centre voter will switch to Labour in angry protest - so a Reform vote at next GE of 7 or 8% won’t be a huge shock to any of us, will it.
What will reduce that Reform of 7 to something much lower is for Tory’s to “scare” right wing voters about Labour getting in, so making protest with Reform a dangerous luxury voters don’t have.
But it’s because a “strong and stable under The Conservatives, or taxation, immigration, asylum, incomes, NHS crisis and disaster under Starmer” pitch sounds so unworkable right now, is why we expect a healthy reform protest the Tory’s can’t do a thing about, isn’t it?
Con 32%
Lab 47%
Lib 9%
Grn 3%
Ref 3%
Refuk and their antecedents routinely underperform their polling at real elections.
Change elections, where a government is hated and kicked out, are real elections too, but don’t happen all that often. I stand by all the reasoning I just gave for a solid right wing protest against Tories, and fear factor of opposition not so powerful next time, resulting in a drift from Tory to Reform in next election - its exactly what you would expect to see on a change of government night.
And as for the “real current state, Tories on 32% not 26%” you are having a bubble. Swing back Opinium don’t even have them near 32% 😁
He may well have just ripped a telephone book in half and burst into tears whilst stating facts, we don’t know.
“What has media training done to politics?”
With the excellent Matthew Parris;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001gs6p
And continues to publish accounts of possible side effects even when the data is of only marginal statistical significance.
CDC, FDA see possible link between Pfizer’s bivalent shot and strokes
The agencies said the surveillance signal “is very unlikely” to represent a “true clinical risk” and said they continued to recommend the vaccine.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/13/cdc-fda-pfizer-bivalent-vaccine-possible-strokes-00077933
You are no good at poll divining are you MexPet?
If Sunak cuts Labour down to 40% it is well into hung parliament territory and lots of DKs still too who voted Tory in 2019
https://twitter.com/FreefromTorture/status/1614299427472039937?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1614299427472039937|twgr^4467bcdcbda70cfd16d58022770ea32ffa0dcf6e|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theforum365.com/index.php?app=coremodule=systemcontroller=embedurl=https://twitter.com/FreefromTorture/status/1614299427472039937?s=20
Maybe it will bounce back after it hits the x-axis?
Even the majority for Labour of 82 they forecast tonight is more 2005 than 1997 and a big improvement on the wipeout forecast under Truss. The final Opinium poll under Truss' premiership had Labour on 50% and the Tories on just 23%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Common sense and precedence would suggest the Tories will come back somewhat over the next two years and a Labour-led hung parliament will ensue after the next GE. Except, where and how are the Tories going to win back support?
My current gut feeling is that the UK will end 2023 at about 0.9-1.1% growth, not exactly an earth shattering figure but definitely better than was pencilled in late last year. I think that level would put us in the middle of the pack within the G20 and near the top of the pack in the G7.
What would be really reassuring for businesses is if the official forecasters start moving to the City consensus by the end of Feb and we can see the BoE recant their idiotically negative recession forecasts and Treasury numbers showing no recession will get businesses investing again. I worry that Bailey and the rest of them are too proud to back down and would prefer to be right about their predicted recession than to admit they got it wrong. I assume that will be the case for the OECD and IMF but no one takes their forecasting seriously anyway, big businesses do put the BoE forecast into their investment modeling.
"Among the most ingenious moments in Kraftwerk’s admirable oeuvre is the point in 1981’s “Pocket Calculator” when a human voice self-contentedly sings: “By pressing down a special key / It plays a little melody.” The melody follows in confirmation. The genius here seems to lie in the blunt honesty of the singer, owning up to the contemporary condition of music as an art form that has largely been outsourced to machines. It’s not that the German electronic band invented the technology, nor that they were the first to make use of it. They are simply among the first to figure out how to elevate it to self-awareness, and to press it into a gesture of timely irony and potentially timeless beauty; that is, to make art out of it.
The little melody in question is of course a pre-set. Its sequence of notes is planned in advance, and once the key is pressed, the machine may be relied upon to do only the thing it has been programmed to do. The melody, it goes without saying, is no Bach fugue. It is simple, naïve, kind of dumb; and within the context of the song, it is utterly compelling.
Several conditions — technological, cultural, historical — had to fall into place in order for this melodic interlude, with its verbal introduction, to come across to the critical listener as an expression of genius. All of these conditions might be cited in response to any philistine tempted to declare, of the pressing down of that special key, that “I could have done that too”. We are used to hearing such petulant ressentiment, especially in connection with the 20th-century avant-garde in the figurative arts: “I could have entered a urinal in an exhibition, too”; “I could have painted an all-white monochrome, too”; etc. The simplest response is, “Yes, but you didn’t”."
https://unherd.com/2023/01/the-philistine-war-on-ai-art/
We have been lucky in the winds in the last three weeks. Let it hold for another two months...