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Could Sunak face a challenge before the election? – politicalbetting.com
Could Sunak face a challenge before the election? – politicalbetting.com
As I have observed recently one of the big issues facing Rishi Sunak is that he is still struggling in the polls. The Tories continue to be miles behind which if it was to be repeated at a general election would see hundreds of Tory MPs losing their seats.
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As it is they could easily be down to 150, but they can fight back from that if they stop playing silly buggers. Reappointing the biggest silly bugger of them all won't help.
Next week a group of Conservative backbench MPs will meet in Westminster to set up a new political group.
It does not have a name yet but it does have a purpose — one which may not be hugely welcome in Downing Street.
The 40-strong “ginger group” — a faction that aims to enliven debate and influence the direction of the party — wants to ensure that although Liz Truss’s government may have been consigned to history, the Tory ideology she espoused lives to fight another day.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-allies-in-new-tory-group-plot-to-place-her-dogma-at-partys-heart-x3w8w6hx8?shareToken=145a39652965e1795a7b2d3774f254e0
But I think it is clear that the Tories need a Labour-like period in opposition to reckon with itself and return to the grown-up world of moderate right-of-centre politics, with a bit less corruption and a bit more integrity.
Despite being firmly on the left I really want a decent opposition to Labour to hold their feet to the fire. Johnson's return would simply delay the point at which the Tories can offer anything of value to this country. It would be self-indulgent in the extreme, just as Corbyn was for Labour.
I'd understand it if he was remembered as a particularly good leader who ruled over us when the UK was an elysium of milk and honey, but he's mostly remembered as a guy who partied while the rest of us were being kept, against our will, under house arrest.
Trying to remove Sunak would almost certainly precipitate an election through a party split, particularly if Johnson is re-erected. So it seems unlikely anyone with an atom of sense would do it.
Therefore, with this lot it's a possibility.
However, I don't think it's the likeliest possibility.
I don't but if it happens I won't weep either.
"Stand up if you hate Boris." That's your red wall crumbling, right there. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/darts/boris-johnson-darts-chant-covid-25751623
Sunak is a lot of things, but demonstrably in his favour, he's neither Johnson nor Truss.
'When I said I wanted to see 30,000 SeanT identities, I didn't mean all together on one thread.'
WWC in the SE, yes.
I lost the link to the last comparative poll I found, but it gave Johnson only a couple of points over Sunak, opposing Starmer. All the other possible leaders did worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yehudi_lights
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffused_lighting_camouflage
The F-35 incorporates a piece of technology that is of note - using external cameras, it can provide the pilot, via the helmet, the ability to see “through” the plane.
In some modes, the plane appears *invisible* (partially) to the pilot. He/She instead of seeing the wing (say) sees the sky beyond. Overlayed with data from other sources as well.
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/07/magic-helmet-for-f-35-ready-for-delivery/
Leon you even typed what he said. He said 'Even if it's right next to it, it can't see it'. What do you think that means then? Something I have asked umpteen times but you never address. Trump thinks/thought stealth technology made the plane invisible to the human eye. He thinks this because he is a complete idiot. Because you are a Trump lover you simply can't accept that so throw insults at people who call you out for trying to defend the indefensible.
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1614168319824642048
It really doesn't matter.
Blair and Cameron are the only times I've thought great they have elected someone I kind of like. Generally we pick people I consider losers as our leaders, even if they have not lost yet.
Boris was successful because he was seen as reaching the parts that other Conservative politicians didn't reach, there's palpable evidence that those voters have since turned against him.
Sunak, as a socially awkward pint sized billionaire, is unlikely to impress either. But bringing back Johnson isn't the answer, because at this point he's clearly a busted flush.
The pandemic response was chaotic but they could always point to the vaccine rollout as a success.
Now with Bridgens speech in the commons and Malhotra calling for the vaccine rollout to be halted on bbc news doubts about the vaccine are percolating.
Even James Whale seems to be changing his mind on the vax.
If the vax comes to be seen as anything other than safe and effective it could be a major problem for the tories.
The problem is that the voters that Bozo will attract are in seats that the Tory party have already lost at the next election - so yep the Tory overall vote will increase but it will at best be reducing Labour victory margins from 10,000 to say 5000 while some safe Tory seats down south are lost to the Lib Dems.
He will lose badly in 2024
Boris was unusually charming to a large chunk of the British electorate. A one off. A naturally gifted politician who shamefully wasted his talents - and majority - with foolish libertinism and blasé selfishness
But. Later that day, the bog at number 10 gets blocked. Sunak calls a plumber. He proceeds to make awkward, disjointed small talk about the weather/day's events while offering to make cups of sugary tea. The plumber overcharges him 2x for the job, and walks away knowing he's a mug.
That's Sunak. Incredibly competent around people within his milieu, but utterly unable to connect with people outside of it. See also - him trying to put petrol in a car, use a contactless card etc.
I do not wish to be banned so let me emphasise I still believe the jabs are good, probably very good, and they came miraculously quickly and maybe saved millions of lives - and I’ve had two boosters and I would have more - but there are straws in the wind. It can’t be denied. This isn’t merely nutters any more
Btw if you’re still depressed - as you mentioned - get yerself to Bangkok. I was depressed in december - slothful, indolent, too boozy, becoming reclusive…. It was partly the winter weather — I get SAD - and also flashbacks to lockdown 3 I think. When I was locked in and borderline suicidal
A week out here in the sun has dispelled my gloom entirely. Praise be. Try it! (If you still need it)
I refer you to Fox reporting on European elite athletes under 35 stats on sudden cardiac arrest pre and post vaccine. 29 per year compared to 1500 per year post vaccine. It was examined on 'More or Less'. The 1500 was bollocks reported by an anti vax site. It included Pele (Not European. over 35 by some way and didn't die of cardiac arrest). They went through the list. It was a huge list of bollocks (Thai princess, footballer with damaged lung in a accident, car accidents, etc)
All reported on Fox as true.
Maybe there’s something I’m not seeing? A dodgy IP address, fake email, or something?
But if it’s just the content of your post that has triggered the mods, well, something ain’t right.
I disagree with the antivax stuff. I’ve just had my booster myself (my mum is on chemo and I don’t want to increase her risk of infection, not really for my own personal benefit), but, surely being antivax shouldn’t be beyond the pale?
Matthew Syed made this point on times radio yesterday - banning bad ideas is a bad idea. Hiding amongst the bad ideas can be inconvenient truths.
Sometimes.
Probably not in this case, but how can we know for sure?
I urge the mods to rethink.
This site is a total joke and echo chamber.
When the vax is questioned on bbc news and in the house of commons you cant just ban people for voicing concerns.
The mod Robert Smithson used to work at Goldman Sachs but despite his extensive education seems incredibly insecure.
The vax is not a religion as this site seems to think. It is there to be questioned .
I suppose this post will get me another ban but who cares...says more about the mods than me.
But the PB mods are usually pretty good at this stuff so I suspect there are other reasons for the instant hammer
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions
If there is any challenge it is therefore highly unlikely until just before the next general election if Labour is still heading for a clear majority in most polls.
It should also be noted there is a divide on Boris' appeal. While Tory MPs in redwall seats would likely do better under Boris, Tory MPs in London and the South East and Scotland would likely still do better under Sunak
The thing about people like Aseem Malhotra or Bridgen is the certainty with which they air their views. They *know* they are right. There are few 'mights' or 'maybes'; lots of 'does' and 'is'.
This is not the way science works. That alone makes me somewhat dubious about Malhotra's views, in particular. He comes across like a religious zealot on this.
(*) Overvalued
Blair had it. Cameron had it. Thatcher had it. Major had it, until he didn't.
May and Brown didn't have the vibe, though they tried hard. Maybe that was their problem- they knew the moves, but couldn't do them smoothly. The difference between a successful senior minister and a successful PM.
Johnson was more convincing, but there was a something not quite right, something that once seen couldn't be unseen.
And Sunak? He's the best we have right now, but he's not got "it". And increasingly, we can all see.
Does Starmer have it? He can do gravitas, which is necessary. I'm not sure it's sufficient.
If he squeezes RefUK and DKs that is very possible
“U.S. FDA, CDC see early signal of Pfizer bivalent COVID shot's link to stroke reut.rs/3WbVnTI”
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1614078706170970112?s=46&t=Gy5euEZN4BiaKG6bhNpWCw
Robbert Kennedy Jrs book has great details on how Pfizer trials show the vax wasnt safe
Robbert Kennedy Jrs book has great details on how Pfizer trials show the vax wasnt safe
The FDA and CDC said that other large studies, the CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, other countries' databases and Pfizer-BioNTech's databases had not flagged this safety issue, adding that it requires more investigation.
"Although the totality of the data currently suggests that it is very unlikely that the signal in VSD (Vaccine Safety Datalink) represents a true clinical risk, we believe it is important to share this information with the public," the health authorities said.
The FDA and CDC said that other large studies, the CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, other countries' databases and Pfizer-BioNTech's databases had not flagged this safety issue, adding that it requires more investigation.
"Although the totality of the data currently suggests that it is very unlikely that the signal in VSD (Vaccine Safety Datalink) represents a true clinical risk, we believe it is important to share this information with the public," the health authorities said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-says-pfizers-bivalent-covid-shot-may-be-linked-stroke-older-adults-2023-01-13/
ETA scooped by Chris!
CDC and FDA say they're investigating possible link between Pfizer's bivalent Covid booster and strokes in seniors over age of 65 - but officials have 'no concerns at this time'
By Mansur Shaheen Deputy Health Editor For Dailymail.Com and Reuters21:23, 13 Jan 2023 , updated 23:47, 13 Jan 2023
CDC and FDA say they're investigating possible link between Pfizer's bivalent Covid booster and strokes in seniors over age of 65 - but officials have 'no concerns at this time'
By Mansur Shaheen Deputy Health Editor For Dailymail.Com and Reuters21:23, 13 Jan 2023 , updated 23:47, 13 Jan 2023
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1614200420489986049
My view is gender neutral awards should reserve 50% of nominations for women.
Women represent a majority of the music industry workforce, so the Academy making the nominations should also be weighted to be at least 50% women, too.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1613969335373922323
Personally, I’m not even close to believing it. But I am slightly less certain than I was before. I hope the mods don’t ban people for discussing it and producing evidence against the vax. All voices should be heard
For a year you weren’t even allowed to DEBATE the lab leak hypothesis, and now it is regarded as the most plausible explanation. So this has happened before
And as for Robert Kennedy? He's a lowlife piece of shit whose campaign against MMR is hideous; his behaviour over Covid is sadly typical. And what are his scientific credentials?
Even if there were only two parties in the UK (there aren't) then every election would result in one of those party leaders being a loser.
Every party leader is a loser! The only five I can think of who haven't been (at a General Election level) are Gaiskell and Smith (never got a chance), and Thatcher, Blair and MacMillian, all of whom quit before losing a GE.
All the Liberal/Alliance/LD leaders are always losers........
He died of COVID last year.
I view anti-vaccination arguments in the same light as belief in vampires.
Andrew Bridgen is a fool raise comparisons with the Holocaust.
For all COVID-19 vaccines, the overwhelming majority of reports relate to injection-site reactions (sore arm for example) and generalised symptoms such as ‘flu-like’ illness, headache, chills, fatigue (tiredness), nausea (feeling sick), fever, dizziness, weakness, aching muscles, and rapid heartbeat. Generally, these happen shortly after the vaccination and are not associated with more serious or lasting illness.
...
The MHRA has undertaken a thorough review of both UK and international reports of suspected myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination against COVID-19. There has been a consistent pattern of higher reporting of these suspected events with both the monovalent COVID-19 Vaccine Pfizer/BioNTech and COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna, and of these occurring more frequently in males. These reports have also been analysed by the government’s independent advisory body, the CHM and its COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group. Following their advice, the product information for both monovalent COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and COVID-19 Vaccine Pfizer/BioNTech was updated to inform healthcare professionals and patients of these reports and provide advice to be aware of important symptoms for myocarditis and pericarditis. This advice has also been included in the product information for the bivalent (original/Omicron BA.1) COVID-19 vaccines for Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting--2
ETA so first, there is no cover-up; second, we do not need to panic just yet.
Edit - incidentally I take it you mean since the war? Else we have to add Neville Chamberlain, Andrew Bonar Law and Henry Campbell-Bannerman to your list.
The vaccines have done a marvellous job on reducing the mortality rate and infections.
Post pandemic, my mood is definitely a lot worse in winter and my therapist definitely thinks I have seasonal affective disorder. I'm studying some super boring professional qualifications at the moment but once I have them I'll be a lot more globally mobile - tempted to eff off from the UK forever, tbh.
What is here, other than rain and taxes?