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LAB’s not taking enough of the GE2019 CON vote – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,592
edited January 2023 in General
imageLAB’s not taking enough of the GE2019 CON vote – politicalbetting.com

The above chart is based on detailed data of the GE2019 CON vote from the latest PeoplePolling survey.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Doesn't look like Starmer is convincing many of the Red Wall voters that Labour has truly changed.

    He seems to be relying on a strategy of "don't frighten the horses" and to win by apathy essentially. He may succeed but it's risky.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,794
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,794
    EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    They have gleaming investment and yet their kids fan out over freezing Northern Europe because a job is better than no job. That's the funny thing about investment: you can build it, make it look cool, and still people might not use it to generate economic activity (i.e. tax revenue).
    Back in 2000, just under 15 million Spaniards were employed. Right now, it's 20.5 million.

    That's better growth that the UK managed in the same period.
    Because their population grew more rapidly. Looking at unemployment rates, Spain's was 15% in 2000 and remains closer to 15% than 10% today. The UK's unemployment rate is south of 5%; Spain's has rarely gone under 10%. Spain is a great country in which to be a skilled, middle-class worker. For the other half, outcomes can be as miserable as in the medieval bits of Italy.
    It's a bit more complex than that: Spain's employment-to-working age population ratio is now at all time highs, despite the unemployment number.

    The St Louis Fed has data on the working age population of Spain, and you can see that it went from 27 million in 1999 to a peak of 31.6m at the end of 2008. It has since dropped back to 31 million.

    Employment to working age population has therefore gone from just over 50% (14 out of 27 million), to 67% (20.5m out of 31 million). And this is now above the 2008 peak of 64%.

    Now, the bulk of the improvement - as @another_richard noted - happened at the start of the period, but it's simply not the case that Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU. On the contrary, in the last quarter century, Spain has probably had the biggest improvement in the proportion of working age people in work in the developed world.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Doesn't look like Starmer is convincing many of the Red Wall voters that Labour has truly changed.

    He seems to be relying on a strategy of "don't frighten the horses" and to win by apathy essentially. He may succeed but it's risky.

    And then the problems would begin in office.

    Starting with all the demands for pay and benefit rises.

    Not going to be easy for whoever is in government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,960
    Late afternoon all :)

    It's rare I disagree with OGH but the figures he quotes are out of line with the data from other pollsters.

    Savanta Com Res publish their data tables and for their latest poll the Conservative 2019 vote broke as follows:

    62% Conservative
    17% Labour
    10% Undecided/Don't Know
    8% Reform
    3% Liberal Democrat

    The Techne numbers from their latest poll:

    53% Conservative
    15% Labour
    20% Undecided/Won't Say
    7% Reform
    4% Liberal Democrat

    There's a lot of contrasting data out there and building an argument from one poll (which looks an outlier) is unconvincing at best.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,983
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Doesn't look like Starmer is convincing many of the Red Wall voters that Labour has truly changed.

    He seems to be relying on a strategy of "don't frighten the horses" and to win by apathy essentially. He may succeed but it's risky.

    Labour need the Lib Dems to be taking more votes from the Tories, if they want to in the election. Recent polling and events have crowded out the Lib Dems from their fair share of the news. I think this will change anyway after the May elections. But in the meantime, Labour strategists ought to be thinking more deeply.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,093
    On that piechart if Sunak wins back all the Don't Knows and most of the RefUK vote the Tories would be close to 35% ie clear hung parliament territory even without regaining any voters lost to Labour and the LDs
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    They have gleaming investment and yet their kids fan out over freezing Northern Europe because a job is better than no job. That's the funny thing about investment: you can build it, make it look cool, and still people might not use it to generate economic activity (i.e. tax revenue).
    Back in 2000, just under 15 million Spaniards were employed. Right now, it's 20.5 million.

    That's better growth that the UK managed in the same period.
    Because their population grew more rapidly. Looking at unemployment rates, Spain's was 15% in 2000 and remains closer to 15% than 10% today. The UK's unemployment rate is south of 5%; Spain's has rarely gone under 10%. Spain is a great country in which to be a skilled, middle-class worker. For the other half, outcomes can be as miserable as in the medieval bits of Italy.
    It's a bit more complex than that: Spain's employment-to-working age population ratio is now at all time highs, despite the unemployment number.

    The St Louis Fed has data on the working age population of Spain, and you can see that it went from 27 million in 1999 to a peak of 31.6m at the end of 2008. It has since dropped back to 31 million.

    Employment to working age population has therefore gone from just over 50% (14 out of 27 million), to 67% (20.5m out of 31 million). And this is now above the 2008 peak of 64%.

    Now, the bulk of the improvement - as @another_richard noted - happened at the start of the period, but it's simply not the case that Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU. On the contrary, in the last quarter century, Spain has probably had the biggest improvement in the proportion of working age people in work in the developed world.
    How much of Spain's employment increase been from:

    1) An increase in female employment
    2) A movement to the cities of jobless agricultural labourers

    Spain's previous relative backwardness would have given scope for a large increase in economic activity.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,749
    HYUFD said:

    On that piechart if Sunak wins back all the Don't Knows and most of the RefUK vote the Tories would be close to 35% ie clear hung parliament territory even without regaining any voters lost to Labour and the LDs

    If
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,772
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's rare I disagree with OGH but the figures he quotes are out of line with the data from other pollsters.

    Savanta Com Res publish their data tables and for their latest poll the Conservative 2019 vote broke as follows:

    62% Conservative
    17% Labour
    10% Undecided/Don't Know
    8% Reform
    3% Liberal Democrat

    The Techne numbers from their latest poll:

    53% Conservative
    15% Labour
    20% Undecided/Won't Say
    7% Reform
    4% Liberal Democrat

    There's a lot of contrasting data out there and building an argument from one poll (which looks an outlier) is unconvincing at best.

    'Lost cat' is a story. 99 cats at home isn't
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,795
    Yep.

    We also need to look at 2019 vote breakdowns of other parties too, because there will be some trade the other way.

    For me, this and the best PM ratings point to the Tories creeping into the 30s and limiting Labour to a small majority in 2 years time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,795
    FPT - I spent most of the afternoon in Waitrose and M&S Christmas hell - it was utter carnage - so can fully empathise with the experience of @DavidL
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    edited December 2022
    You can get Colston Bassett Stilton here, for about $100 per kg.

    I passed.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    It's hard to analyse why things happen when the desired comparison ends up to some vague and hand-wavy conception of a stereotypical European country. Someone mentioned gleaming Spanish trains; what's one to do except answer with specifics?

    The UK has a pattern where highly-productive investment goes to the global hub of London because that is where skilled workers and international markets are easiest to access. But rents in London are sufficiently high to price out a lot of other investment cases that could work in other regions. There's not going to be an outcome where other regions end up equally wealthy and high-income to London, but the target economic activity level for other regions is poorly specified right now - "levelling up" being a pernicious lie from the red-bus crowd.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,256
    Because this is cool graphic, here's a deeper dive from the Savanta MRP about a fortnight ago.




    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_trans2022.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    EPG said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    It's hard to analyse why things happen when the desired comparison ends up to some vague and hand-wavy conception of a stereotypical European country. Someone mentioned gleaming Spanish trains; what's one to do except answer with specifics?

    The UK has a pattern where highly-productive investment goes to the global hub of London because that is where skilled workers and international markets are easiest to access. But rents in London are sufficiently high to price out a lot of other investment cases that could work in other regions. There's not going to be an outcome where other regions end up equally wealthy and high-income to London, but the target economic activity level for other regions is poorly specified right now - "levelling up" being a pernicious lie from the red-bus crowd.
    I do wonder how the UK would be if its financial and political centres were in different places - as in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's rare I disagree with OGH but the figures he quotes are out of line with the data from other pollsters.

    Savanta Com Res publish their data tables and for their latest poll the Conservative 2019 vote broke as follows:

    62% Conservative
    17% Labour
    10% Undecided/Don't Know
    8% Reform
    3% Liberal Democrat

    The Techne numbers from their latest poll:

    53% Conservative
    15% Labour
    20% Undecided/Won't Say
    7% Reform
    4% Liberal Democrat

    There's a lot of contrasting data out there and building an argument from one poll (which looks an outlier) is unconvincing at best.

    Aren't PeoplePolling new? How do they allow for the potential problem of Conservative 2019 voters who've switched to Labour maybe being less likely to admit/remember they voted Conservative in 2019?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,794
    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    One of the reasons I like employment-to-population ratios is that they are harder for politicians to game.

    So in the UK, lots of people have been taken off the unemployment statistics and have been categorized instead as Disabled or Not Actively Seeking employment.

    Likewise, one of the very interesting things that happened in Spain during their massive Euro-related bust was that the number of unemployed rose faster than the number employed dropped. In other words, previously you might have had a family of four where the father worked, and the mother was a homemaker. When dad lost his job, to supplant incomes, they both registered as unemployed.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,794
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,960
    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,794
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    They have gleaming investment and yet their kids fan out over freezing Northern Europe because a job is better than no job. That's the funny thing about investment: you can build it, make it look cool, and still people might not use it to generate economic activity (i.e. tax revenue).
    Back in 2000, just under 15 million Spaniards were employed. Right now, it's 20.5 million.

    That's better growth that the UK managed in the same period.
    Because their population grew more rapidly. Looking at unemployment rates, Spain's was 15% in 2000 and remains closer to 15% than 10% today. The UK's unemployment rate is south of 5%; Spain's has rarely gone under 10%. Spain is a great country in which to be a skilled, middle-class worker. For the other half, outcomes can be as miserable as in the medieval bits of Italy.
    It's a bit more complex than that: Spain's employment-to-working age population ratio is now at all time highs, despite the unemployment number.

    The St Louis Fed has data on the working age population of Spain, and you can see that it went from 27 million in 1999 to a peak of 31.6m at the end of 2008. It has since dropped back to 31 million.

    Employment to working age population has therefore gone from just over 50% (14 out of 27 million), to 67% (20.5m out of 31 million). And this is now above the 2008 peak of 64%.

    Now, the bulk of the improvement - as @another_richard noted - happened at the start of the period, but it's simply not the case that Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU. On the contrary, in the last quarter century, Spain has probably had the biggest improvement in the proportion of working age people in work in the developed world.
    How much of Spain's employment increase been from:

    1) An increase in female employment
    2) A movement to the cities of jobless agricultural labourers

    Spain's previous relative backwardness would have given scope for a large increase in economic activity.
    (1) - a very large proportion (as, to be fair, has been true across the developed world)
    (2) - I'm sure that's played a role, but I don't have numbers to support it
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    Fairliered said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    MSP Vote Breakdown (by party) on the #GRR 🏳️‍⚧️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    Grn 🟢
    Y: 100%
    N: 0%

    LD: 🟠
    Y: 100%
    N: 0%

    SNP: 🟡
    Y: 82%
    N: 14%

    Lab: 🔴
    Y: 81%
    N: 9%

    Con: 🔵
    Y: 9%
    N: 84%
    ———
    MSP Vote Breakdown (by Gender*) on the #GRR 🏳️‍⚧️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    Yes-
    M: 66%
    F: 68%

    No-
    M: 32%
    F: 27%

    DNV-
    M: 1%
    F: 3%

    (*Note - there are currently no out MSPs that identify as NB or another Gender)

    https://twitter.com/camiglasgowsgp/status/1605985361850732544?s=46&t=EgPZBF2I8aWmM9eBC7V34g

    Ironically Alba joined the SCons to oppose the GRC Bill. While Sturgeon lined up with SLAB, the Greens and LDs to back it.

    No Unionist, Nationalist divide there

    https://twitter.com/JNHanvey/status/1605999055603085312?t=zIgon9eomLnkwJeo7kJ-dA&s=19
    Note too some Scottish Nationalists, who Alba represent, are pretty socially conservative.

    Braveheart's Mel Gibson is a Trump supporter

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/mel-gibson-trump-ufc-fight-b1882964.html?amp=
    Are you sitting down? I want you to sit down, Mr HYUFD. I have bad news for you. Mr Gibson is an actor. He is, also, Australian (and US born). And in the film Braveheart he was acting. You know, making up stories about what he isn't in real life.

    If you get your views of Scottish politics from a dodgy history film ...
    Gibson directed Braveheart though and is anti English (see also the Patriot and Gallipoli). He is anti Jewish too (see the Passion of the Christ and remarks he was caught making)
    Not everyone who is anti English is Scottish.
    FPT - Indeed, quite apart fron the insanity of using a 1995 film made by an Australian as a basis for within-UK politics in 2022.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    One of the reasons I like employment-to-population ratios is that they are harder for politicians to game.

    So in the UK, lots of people have been taken off the unemployment statistics and have been categorized instead as Disabled or Not Actively Seeking employment.

    Likewise, one of the very interesting things that happened in Spain during their massive Euro-related bust was that the number of unemployed rose faster than the number employed dropped. In other words, previously you might have had a family of four where the father worked, and the mother was a homemaker. When dad lost his job, to supplant incomes, they both registered as unemployed.

    I do wonder how many of the people dropping of the unemployed numbers would have done so if we had 3m unemployed.

    Its easier to be a layabout when there's mass unemployment.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
    Course it is. Look at a map. It's halfway between Sule Sgeir and Hastings, and between Omagh and Skegness.
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
    Course it is. Look at a map. It's halfway between Sule Sgeir and Hastings, and between Omagh and Skegness.
    And all of its interior is interior. Probably like the IoW with posh chaps round the edge and kulaks inland
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    edited December 2022
    checklist said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
    Course it is. Look at a map. It's halfway between Sule Sgeir and Hastings, and between Omagh and Skegness.
    And all of its interior is interior. Probably like the IoW with posh chaps round the edge and kulaks inland
    Well, apart from the bit about the posh chaps, yes.

    (Although the kulaks *were* the posh chaps - the wealthiest 9% of the peasantry.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    checklist said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
    Course it is. Look at a map. It's halfway between Sule Sgeir and Hastings, and between Omagh and Skegness.
    And all of its interior is interior. Probably like the IoW with posh chaps round the edge and kulaks inland
    They have a lot of rich peasants around Newport and Parkhurst?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    Did you ever read this?

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/02/02/a-tale-of-twelve-cities-the-perplexing-underperformance-of-britains-second-tier/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Note. I have added an explanatory para to the post above in response to those questioning my figures

    Irritatingly not all pollsters publish their data in the same way. I prefer those who do not net off those not expressing a voting intention
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    another_richard said:

    EPG said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    It's hard to analyse why things happen when the desired comparison ends up to some vague and hand-wavy conception of a stereotypical European country. Someone mentioned gleaming Spanish trains; what's one to do except answer with specifics?

    The UK has a pattern where highly-productive investment goes to the global hub of London because that is where skilled workers and international markets are easiest to access. But rents in London are sufficiently high to price out a lot of other investment cases that could work in other regions. There's not going to be an outcome where other regions end up equally wealthy and high-income to London, but the target economic activity level for other regions is poorly specified right now - "levelling up" being a pernicious lie from the red-bus crowd.
    I do wonder how the UK would be if its financial and political centres were in different places - as in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
    All the above countries have massive house price-to-income ratios in the rich cities. (Before anyone starts a false inference, so do Stockholm and Amsterdam.) Another important thing to note is that Vancouver and Montréal are further apart than London and Istanbul, and the same goes for cities in the USA and Australia: these are genuinely different parts of the world, whereas London and Birmingham are a short drive away so nobody will react economically if they move the House of Lords to Sutton Coldfield.
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    Carnyx said:

    checklist said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    Although that's true of this country too. Look at Gwynedd and Anglesey.
    Anglesey is in the interior? Who knew?
    Course it is. Look at a map. It's halfway between Sule Sgeir and Hastings, and between Omagh and Skegness.
    And all of its interior is interior. Probably like the IoW with posh chaps round the edge and kulaks inland
    They have a lot of rich peasants around Newport and Parkhurst?
    Moujiks. Auto correct.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    edited December 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    One of the reasons I like employment-to-population ratios is that they are harder for politicians to game.

    So in the UK, lots of people have been taken off the unemployment statistics and have been categorized instead as Disabled or Not Actively Seeking employment.

    Likewise, one of the very interesting things that happened in Spain during their massive Euro-related bust was that the number of unemployed rose faster than the number employed dropped. In other words, previously you might have had a family of four where the father worked, and the mother was a homemaker. When dad lost his job, to supplant incomes, they both registered as unemployed.

    Yes, unemployment rates can be "gamed" - though the incentive for governments to game them isn't so clear to me, if people are on welfare anyway, particularly the incentive for governments to do so to different extents to each other. But no, a persistent 10% gap in unemployment rates is not just gaming - it reflects people who could work, but aren't, even before accounting for all the people who emigrated rather than staying jobless, which isn't so strong a phenomenon in the UK. Spain genuinely just hands out worse outcomes to the bottom few deciles.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    EPG said:

    another_richard said:

    EPG said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    It's hard to analyse why things happen when the desired comparison ends up to some vague and hand-wavy conception of a stereotypical European country. Someone mentioned gleaming Spanish trains; what's one to do except answer with specifics?

    The UK has a pattern where highly-productive investment goes to the global hub of London because that is where skilled workers and international markets are easiest to access. But rents in London are sufficiently high to price out a lot of other investment cases that could work in other regions. There's not going to be an outcome where other regions end up equally wealthy and high-income to London, but the target economic activity level for other regions is poorly specified right now - "levelling up" being a pernicious lie from the red-bus crowd.
    I do wonder how the UK would be if its financial and political centres were in different places - as in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
    All the above countries have massive house price-to-income ratios in the rich cities. (Before anyone starts a false inference, so do Stockholm and Amsterdam.) Another important thing to note is that Vancouver and Montréal are further apart than London and Istanbul, and the same goes for cities in the USA and Australia: these are genuinely different parts of the world, whereas London and Birmingham are a short drive away so nobody will react economically if they move the House of Lords to Sutton Coldfield.
    Indeed.

    Likewise comparing the USA's 'rust belt' to the UK's 'red wall' can have problems.

    And how New Zealand's house prices are so high is a remarkable failing.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    kamski said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's rare I disagree with OGH but the figures he quotes are out of line with the data from other pollsters.

    Savanta Com Res publish their data tables and for their latest poll the Conservative 2019 vote broke as follows:

    62% Conservative
    17% Labour
    10% Undecided/Don't Know
    8% Reform
    3% Liberal Democrat

    The Techne numbers from their latest poll:

    53% Conservative
    15% Labour
    20% Undecided/Won't Say
    7% Reform
    4% Liberal Democrat

    There's a lot of contrasting data out there and building an argument from one poll (which looks an outlier) is unconvincing at best.

    Aren't PeoplePolling new? How do they allow for the potential problem of Conservative 2019 voters who've switched to Labour maybe being less likely to admit/remember they voted Conservative in 2019?
    That factor is always there. My problem is that most pollsters bases their splits on just those expressing a voting intention. This firm doesn't which allows me to do the analysis
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,966
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    Spain is rather like a bike wheel with a solid bit in the middle (Madrid) with a thick ring around the coast with very little connecting them.

    Compared with England which is more of a solid rectangle which thins out at its extremities.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited December 2022
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    It's rare I disagree with OGH but the figures he quotes are out of line with the data from other pollsters.

    Savanta Com Res publish their data tables and for their latest poll the Conservative 2019 vote broke as follows:

    62% Conservative
    17% Labour
    10% Undecided/Don't Know
    8% Reform
    3% Liberal Democrat

    The Techne numbers from their latest poll:

    53% Conservative
    15% Labour
    20% Undecided/Won't Say
    7% Reform
    4% Liberal Democrat

    There's a lot of contrasting data out there and building an argument from one poll (which looks an outlier) is unconvincing at best.

    Yes I'm sorry to disagree with Mike about this but it smacks to me of a starting epistemology that refuses to believe Labour can or will win an outright majority, and then massaging the figures to fit that theory.

    There are so many questions that this analysis throws up. For one thing we would need to go back to ALL equivalent swings in previous general elections, especially 1945, 1979, and 1997 and run comparable rigorous sample data analysis from all pollsters.

    This is flakey.

    Which is why, whilst OGH is good to caution against the inevitable, I nevertheless read the raw overall data and a multiplicity of other supporting evidence, to the conclusion that the tories are in for a shellacking.

    p.s. To HYUFD you rather loosely commented that the tories are polling 25-30%. In fact of the last 10 opinion polls only half have them polling above 25% with the mean at 25.7%. That's an awfully low base.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,772
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Fairliered said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    carnforth said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Anyway, you can poke at the data for long time. The overall picture is pretty clear and things looks set to get worse before they get better.

    The more interesting question is why?

    In essence, it seems Britain has failed to invest for quite a long time, and has spent its money bidding up an inflexible housing market instead.

    Lots and lots of complexity underneath that, but that to me is the core of it.

    Look at countries like Spain.

    Any city of any size has a metro or trams, they have a new massive high speed rail network.

    They have been investing heavily in infrastructure to grow the economy for a long time now.

    Meanwhile in the UK.....
    HS2 and crossrail are two of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe in recent years.
    True, though Crossrail is in That Here London, as are the Jubilee Line Extension and Overground. And London is doing fine.

    Elsewhere, the pickings are much thinner. We know what ought to be done, but we drag our feet something rotten about doing it. See the way that HS2 has been quibbled about and pruned, and some people would happily bin it tomorrow.

    Do countries like Spain have nimbys, or are we just overpopulated for area?
    My immediate impression is the latter but that might just be lazy thinking on my part. There are very large areas of the interior of Spain which have very low population density but of course that then tends to concentrate the population more in the coastal regions so it is a weird case of extremes - low population density overall but one of the highest population densities in Europe in its metropolitan areas.
    That's absolutely right: and it is worth noting that the interior of Spain (particularly some of the inland parts of the South) is not just sparsely populated, but extremely poor.

    While Bilbao and Barcelona and (to a lesser extent Madrid) have all seen extraordinary growth in the last two decades, a lot of places remain extremely deprived by European standards.
    I'm surprised. I used to do a lot of work in Madrid from about 1990 onwards and their budgets and clients were huge. It seemed to be far in advance of Barcelona where I also worked. If there has been 'extraordinary growth' it was apparent well before the last two decades.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,503
    ClippP said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Doesn't look like Starmer is convincing many of the Red Wall voters that Labour has truly changed.

    He seems to be relying on a strategy of "don't frighten the horses" and to win by apathy essentially. He may succeed but it's risky.

    Labour need the Lib Dems to be taking more votes from the Tories, if they want to in the election. Recent polling and events have crowded out the Lib Dems from their fair share of the news. I think this will change anyway after the May elections. But in the meantime, Labour strategists ought to be thinking more deeply.
    LibDems performing well in by-elections, when given the chance for a one-off kick up the arse to the Tories - but otherwise no burning desire to have Sir Ed Davey in power.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,772
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    On that piechart if Sunak wins back all the Don't Knows and most of the RefUK vote the Tories would be close to 35% ie clear hung parliament territory even without regaining any voters lost to Labour and the LDs

    If
    I always wonder about these re reading of polls. It's the job of the pollster to give an accurate picture of what's likely to happen. Their livelihoods depend on it. If it's so easy to spot these dramatic flaws in their methodology wouldn't they correct it? what's more the number of times polls get the results drastically wrong as is being suggested on this thread are infinitesimally rare
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    edited December 2022
    JulietteSage said:

    hmmmmmmm

    If, like some of the others who joined at the same time, you are either an advertising bot or a Russian bot, I'll give you that your first post is definitely original.

    Edit - ah bugger, reversion to type. It's an advertising bot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    EPG said:

    Fpt, I agree with rcs that this statement is not true: since 2000, "Spain's improvement in incomes has come from everyone leaving for other jobs across the EU". To me, the figures rcs marshals about raw numbers of population and employment point to significant increases in women's participation in the workforce. This is one of the big activators of taxable economic activity, and it wouldn't surprise me if Spain began below the UK in using women's labour to generate taxes.

    However, it is also undeniably true that at around 15% on average since 2000, Spain's unemployment rate has been at levels unmatched in a large country not named Italy. I also think there is little doubt that Spain's young people have disproportionately emigrated, offering support to unemployment rates by keeping them lower than they would otherwise be.

    I posit that cumulatively these point to significant under-utilisation of resources, and to get back to the original point, that capital investment is not going to be a significant game-changer in the presence of long-lasting labour market weaknesses, as exist in many peripheral regions of the UK.

    And yet, British “provinces” are starved of capital investment (including private, which tends to ape public investment patterns) and then mysteriously don’t grow.

    What talent there is leaves for London.
    What private investment is available looks at the general lack of ambition of the regions and also chooses elsewhere to put their money.

    It thereby becomes a self perpetuating cycle.

    The comparison is not just with Spain, in fact I’d argue Spain is actually not a great comparator for many reasons including some you mention, it’s with the broad sweep of European peers.

    Did you ever read this?

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/02/02/a-tale-of-twelve-cities-the-perplexing-underperformance-of-britains-second-tier/
    Sure. It’s a good piece, Meeks was right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,299
    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    There comes a time when the polls should be believed. Are we there yet? I think not, but it could easily look in a years time that Evens on Lab Majority was great value.

    Not that Starmer needs or deserves a 200 seat majority.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,886
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    My advice. Don’t justify the unjustifiable. Just say youmade a choice. Picked a side. Decided who was expendable and who was collateral damage. But never tell a survivor of male violence that you feel their pain. Just tell them other things mattered more. And live with your pick.

    https://twitter.com/JohannLamont/status/1606097050252165120\

    Yep. That’s how it is. If you supported this, you chose to put men’s rights over women’s. Not trans rights. Men’s rights. The ability of men - who *are not trans* - to choose their “best life” at the expense of women. That’s what you’ve done. I hope you’re proud.

    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1606337172797169664?s=20&t=6onbyt-SAczTks2UvAS2hw
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,503
    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,522
    Isn't the population of Spain barely growing? Whereas the UK's is, pretty fast.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - I spent most of the afternoon in Waitrose and M&S Christmas hell - it was utter carnage - so can fully empathise with the experience of @DavidL

    Why do you do it?
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    Sounds like you've had some unusual experiences in your local cinema. Coastal location, is it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Oh dear... 🤦‍♂️

    Russian state broadcaster RT has a Christmas message for Europeans
    [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1606347049284165632
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    ydoethur said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    Sounds like you've had some unusual experiences in your local cinema. Coastal location, is it?
    They were fresh out of popcorn, but this very nice bloke offered me some mushrooms he had with him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    I think it had a few advance screenings, but none near me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,772
    ydoethur said:

    JulietteSage said:

    hmmmmmmm

    If, like some of the others who joined at the same time, you are either an advertising bot or a Russian bot, I'll give you that your first post is definitely original.

    Edit - ah bugger, reversion to type. It's an advertising bot.
    My kind of bot.....

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    CarlottaVance said:

    Oh dear... 🤦‍♂️

    Russian state broadcaster RT has a Christmas message for Europeans
    [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1606347049284165632

    The lack of self-awareness is strong with that one...
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    All fair points. However, what's clear is that - unlike with Tony Blair - SKS is not making a meaningful impact on the public. He's level pegging with Sunak when it comes to best PM which, as has been mentioned on this site many times before, is a more accurate predictor of election outcomes (at least in recent years). Nor do any of the actual vote events (bye-elections, council seats etc) demonstrate massive enthusiasm for Labour even if voters are anti-Tory.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    A shipyard in Turkey has been named as the preferred bidder to build two more Scottish ferries, bringing the number of ferries to be built at the yard for Scotland to four.

    https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1606325174458060802
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    edited December 2022
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    All fair points. However, what's clear is that - unlike with Tony Blair - SKS is not making a meaningful impact on the public. He's level pegging with Sunak when it comes to best PM which, as has been mentioned on this site many times before, is a more accurate predictor of election outcomes (at least in recent years). Nor do any of the actual vote events (bye-elections, council seats etc) demonstrate massive enthusiasm for Labour even if voters are anti-Tory.

    Fair points, also.
    However, he doesn't have to be Blair to become PM.
    I have pointed out before that most people have only one experience of Labour taking over from the Tories to compare with.
    That hugely colours their expectations.
    It doesn't have to be a repeat of that secenario. Or anywhere close to 1997.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    All fair points. However, what's clear is that - unlike with Tony Blair - SKS is not making a meaningful impact on the public. He's level pegging with Sunak when it comes to best PM which, as has been mentioned on this site many times before, is a more accurate predictor of election outcomes (at least in recent years). Nor do any of the actual vote events (bye-elections, council seats etc) demonstrate massive enthusiasm for Labour even if voters are anti-Tory.

    Yes,as much as people including myself would love to see the tories routed at the next election the evidence is not 100% there, the next 6 months I feel could be conclusive
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,178
    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,886
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
    Not “evacuation”.

    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. With all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”

    Is there enough bullshit in there?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,886
    CarlottaVance said:

    A shipyard in Turkey has been named as the preferred bidder to build two more Scottish ferries, bringing the number of ferries to be built at the yard for Scotland to four.

    https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1606325174458060802

    Will any of the 4 ferries be innovative in their transportation capabilities?

    Say, by being able to ferry stuff from place to place?
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    Yup. Saw the last one because my sons were then of a age where I had to take them.

    Avoid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
    Not “evacuation”.

    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. With all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”

    Is there enough bullshit in there?
    Not quite. You need to work in 'a holistic approach to deliver a client centred outcome.'
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,669
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
    Not “evacuation”.

    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. With all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”

    Is there enough bullshit in there?
    Not quite. You need to work in 'a holistic approach to deliver a client centred outcome.'
    It definitely has a whiff of 'evacuation' about it, bovine or otherwise.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,711
    Some notes on britain's recent surprising energy exports by Ed Conway of Sky News:

    https://www.edmundconway.com/typically-britain-tends-to-import-gas-from-europe-in-the-summer-2/?ref=ed-conway-newsletter
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,669
    checklist said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    Yup. Saw the last one because my sons were then of a age where I had to take them.

    Avoid.
    It was highly regarded by someone here called SeanT. Just as well he's no longer around.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    edited December 2022
    checklist said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    Yup. Saw the last one because my sons were then of a age where I had to take them.

    Avoid.
    Wasn't it directed by the same bloke that made that pile of overhyped shit Titanic?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,424
    Off topic, but probably true. And definitely funny: "The Incredible 37-Page Guide for Staffing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema"

    "Always have a “room temperature” bottle of water on hand for her at all times. Make sure you get her groceries. And book her a weekly, hour-long massage.

    These are just a few of the tasks, framed in a dizzying array of do’s and don’ts, that have fallen to the staffers for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), according to an internal memo obtained by The Daily Beast.

    The 37-page memo is intended as a guide for aides who set the schedule for and personally staff Sinema during her workdays in Washington and Arizona. And while the document is mostly just revealing of Sinema’s exceptionally strong preferences about things like air travel—preferably not on Southwest Airlines, never book her a seat near a bathroom, and absolutely never a middle seat—Sinema’s standards appear to go right up to the line of what Senate ethics rules allow, if not over."

    source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-incredible-37-page-guide-for-staffing-sen-kyrsten-sinema?ref=scroll

    Sinema is hardly the first congress critter to treat aides as personal servants -- and, yes, before you ask, some of the worst have been "progressive" Democrats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,795
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - I spent most of the afternoon in Waitrose and M&S Christmas hell - it was utter carnage - so can fully empathise with the experience of @DavidL

    Why do you do it?
    Needed baby milk and nappies and to pick up our M&S Christmas food order.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    The Sun has issued a sincere apology for last week’s Clarkson article.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,583
    Quicker than for Hillsborough…
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,960
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    All fair points. However, what's clear is that - unlike with Tony Blair - SKS is not making a meaningful impact on the public. He's level pegging with Sunak when it comes to best PM which, as has been mentioned on this site many times before, is a more accurate predictor of election outcomes (at least in recent years). Nor do any of the actual vote events (bye-elections, council seats etc) demonstrate massive enthusiasm for Labour even if voters are anti-Tory.

    It's been an unprecedented three years. During the pandemic the Prime Minister was rarely off the tv screens or the media and as it was a national crisis (or perceived to be), the Opposition couldn't really do much more than be supportive and no one was interested in what they were saying.

    The end of the pandemic has been followed by months of protracted internal wrangling and chaos within the Conservative Party (2022 - the Year of the Three Prime Ministers). Starmer has rightly stood aloof from all this - you never interrupt your opponent when he is making mistakes and again as it's all been about the Tories no one has been interested in what he has said.

    I'd agree there's been a wave of anti-Conservative sentiment or disdain or anger or whatever - in truth, the Chester result was decent. IF we are returning to a more normal political universe in 2023, Starmer will have to start getting a hearing and what he says will be scrutinised and criticised in a way it's not been so far. This will be his acid test.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    turbotubbs said:

    Quicker than for Hillsborough…

    Practice makes perfect.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,063
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    It's certainly well up there in the "why does/did that need a sequel" stakes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    Took awhile to hit its stride, but Glass Onion is fun. Did spot at least one of the twists in the moment, but I liked some of the reveals.

    (That there are twists and reveals is no spoiler, its a mystery film).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,178
    Gardenwalker said:

    The Sun has issued a sincere apology for last week’s Clarkson article.

    An insincere apology I rather think.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,063
    Malmesbury said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    A shipyard in Turkey has been named as the preferred bidder to build two more Scottish ferries, bringing the number of ferries to be built at the yard for Scotland to four.

    https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1606325174458060802

    Will any of the 4 ferries be innovative in their transportation capabilities?

    Say, by being able to ferry stuff from place to place?
    Yes.

    Just...not this century.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,886
    edited December 2022
    carnforth said:

    Some notes on britain's recent surprising energy exports by Ed Conway of Sky News:

    https://www.edmundconway.com/typically-britain-tends-to-import-gas-from-europe-in-the-summer-2/?ref=ed-conway-newsletter

    The ability to import and export stuff multiple locations according to price and other factor is awesome.

    Being dependent on a single, un-switchable source for something will probably end up sucking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,886
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
    Not “evacuation”.

    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. With all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”

    Is there enough bullshit in there?
    Not quite. You need to work in 'a holistic approach to deliver a client centred outcome.'
    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a holistic approach to world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. Utilising pupil-centric engagement with process oriented accomplishments, leading to the all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    Just done the same - quite enjoyed it.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,424
    On the weather here in the Seattle area: The snow on the bushes outside my kitchen window has been replaced by ice. There is not enough ice here to cause serious problems -- for those unable to stay home as our news readers were advising we do this morning. (There were, last I checked, about 20,000 without electrical power in the region. For them it may have been more serious since so many homes are heated with electricity here. But that's a small fraction of the approximately 4 million population in the area.)

    Those who had to drive this morning have my sympathy.

    Me? I am mourning the loss of snow for cross country skiing, and trying to decide which of the many tasks I should do inside my apartment, first.

    (Good timing: In the last few days, I have seen a local company trimming trees close to power lines in my area. I assume they were working for the local utility, Puget Sound Energy, but didn't ask them.)

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    Alphabet_Soup said:

    checklist said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    Yup. Saw the last one because my sons were then of a age where I had to take them.

    Avoid.
    It was highly regarded by someone here called SeanT. Just as well he's no longer around.
    Watched the original at the cinema alone because Mrs P said "not interested, looks like a heap of crap".

    Mrs P was right once again.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Oooooh! A subsamples thread. My fave.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,424
    Malmsebury said: "Being dependent on a single, un-switchable source for something will probably end up sucking."

    Apple appears to be beginning to understand that. Rather late, IMHO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    I'd meant to see it but was unwell. I liked the first one just fine, seen it several times, but I don't think anyone felt it needed a 14 year wait and four f*cking sequels. It was an ok movie, and sparked a brief 3D craze, that's all.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    stodge said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    stodge said:

    I think what's at work here is reminiscent of what we saw in the mid 90s.

    The polls showed Labour miles in front but Major retained a residual personal popularity as a genial likeable man albeit not really in charge of a disintegrating party.

    Periodically articles would come out in the still largely pro-Conservative Press explaining how Major could win a fifth term, how when it came down to it voters would pick Major's experience over "Phoney Tony" and with the economy in such a good state nobody would risk handing it over to an untried and untested Labour Party. With the shadow of the 1992 polling disaster a lot of people still thought, in spite of all the evidence, the Conservatives would somehow pull it out of the fire.

    We all know what happened - yes, the gap closed slightly and yes many Conservative voters stayed at home but a large number switched directly to Labour or the LDs and of course 2.6% (we assume mostly ex-Tories) backed Sir James Goldsmith's party and Labour won a massive landslide.

    All fair points. However, what's clear is that - unlike with Tony Blair - SKS is not making a meaningful impact on the public. He's level pegging with Sunak when it comes to best PM which, as has been mentioned on this site many times before, is a more accurate predictor of election outcomes (at least in recent years). Nor do any of the actual vote events (bye-elections, council seats etc) demonstrate massive enthusiasm for Labour even if voters are anti-Tory.

    It's been an unprecedented three years. During the pandemic the Prime Minister was rarely off the tv screens or the media and as it was a national crisis (or perceived to be), the Opposition couldn't really do much more than be supportive and no one was interested in what they were saying.

    The end of the pandemic has been followed by months of protracted internal wrangling and chaos within the Conservative Party (2022 - the Year of the Three Prime Ministers). Starmer has rightly stood aloof from all this - you never interrupt your opponent when he is making mistakes and again as it's all been about the Tories no one has been interested in what he has said.

    I'd agree there's been a wave of anti-Conservative sentiment or disdain or anger or whatever - in truth, the Chester result was decent. IF we are returning to a more normal political universe in 2023, Starmer will have to start getting a hearing and what he says will be scrutinised and criticised in a way it's not been so far. This will be his acid test.
    Never interrupting your enemies' mistakes is always a good strategy but SKS needs more than that.

    Labour has a serious brand image problem in many of its seats, which has been going back at least 15 years looking at the GE results. Large swathes of people who would typically have voted for them now view them with distrust and, even worse, hostility as they view Labour as fundamentally despising their values (and them as people).

    SKS has made some steps here but not enough. That's going to be a problem if it continues. Those 2019 Con voters who are DKs / DVs might easily come back if they think there is too much risk of a SKS Government leading to the things they don't like - more pro-European, pro-immigration etc.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    StuartDickson said:

    Oooooh! A subsamples thread. My fave.

    Now, now. You'll trigger those snowflake Unionists worse than a remake of The Snowman.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    I did see the last one.
    That's why I won't be seeing this one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,575
    kle4 said:

    Took awhile to hit its stride, but Glass Onion is fun. Did spot at least one of the twists in the moment, but I liked some of the reveals.

    (That there are twists and reveals is no spoiler, its a mystery film).

    The plot wasn’t as tightly constructed as the original, which was truly excellent, but it was a lot of fun.
  • checklistchecklist Posts: 179
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    checklist said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    Yup. Saw the last one because my sons were then of a age where I had to take them.

    Avoid.
    Wasn't it directed by the same bloke that made that pile of overhyped shit Titanic?
    Yes. Also made aliens though.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Oooooh! A subsamples thread. My fave.

    Now, now. You'll trigger those snowflake Unionists worse than a remake of The Snowman.
    Nah, we are too bothered by good old Nicola allowing male rapists to self-identify as women and then claiming that it's unlikely any would take advantage of such a change to commit sex crimes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    London
    Lab 46%
    Con 20%
    LD 11%
    Grn 10%
    Ref 10%

    Rest of South
    Lab 41%
    Con 24%
    LD 14%
    Grn 10%
    Ref 9%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 49%
    Con 25%
    Ref 8%
    LD 8%
    Grn 4%
    PC 2%

    North
    Lab 56%
    Con 23%
    Ref 8%
    LD 5%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 55%
    Lab 24%
    Con 7%
    Ref 4%
    LD 4%

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; December 21, 2022; 1,148)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    dixiedean said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    checklist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Just about to have a quiet night in watching Glass Onion on Netflix.

    What is this "cinema" of which people speak?

    OMG TF heads up, had no idea it was straight to streaming

    You won't get blue chaps flying whales out of the screen at you though.
    I assume you're referring to the new Avatar film - I didn't see the last one and I am struggling to muster a f**k that there's a new one out. How is everyone else feeling about it?
    I did see the last one.
    That's why I won't be seeing this one.
    I loved the evil Colonel in it though. Stephen Lang is awesome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,438
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if any of our regular posters are, in fact, paid to post here?

    If so, do they have an email address where I can sign up?

    Or perhaps people would be willing to crowdfund me? One pound per pun?

    I’m not a trillionaire.
    Your valued contribution to the DfE's evacuation to somewhere more appropriate means I would not sting you for any pecuniary sponsorship.
    Not “evacuation”.

    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. With all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”

    Is there enough bullshit in there?
    Not quite. You need to work in 'a holistic approach to deliver a client centred outcome.'
    “Demonstrating at an organisation level a holistic approach to world beating commitment to leadership, innovation, science and technology. Utilising pupil-centric engagement with process oriented accomplishments, leading to the all embracing inclusiveness baked into the very heart of the concept.”
    Much better.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Oooooh! A subsamples thread. My fave.

    Now, now. You'll trigger those snowflake Unionists worse than a remake of The Snowman.
    Nah, we are too bothered by good old Nicola allowing male rapists to self-identify as women and then claiming that it's unlikely any would take advantage of such a change to commit sex crimes.
    “Good old Nicola” ?!?

    The legislation was broadly welcomed throughout the parliament:

    MSP Vote Breakdown (by party) on the #GRR 🏳️‍⚧️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    Grn 🟢
    Y: 100%
    N: 0%

    LD: 🟠
    Y: 100%
    N: 0%

    SNP: 🟡
    Y: 82%
    N: 14%

    Lab: 🔴
    Y: 81%
    N: 9%

    Con: 🔵
    Y: 9%
    N: 84%
This discussion has been closed.

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