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LAB now odds-on in the betting to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
LAB now odds-on in the betting to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows how things have moved in the past 12-months in the next general election betting market. As can be seen LAB has moved up for a 16% chance to a 51% chance now while the Tories have moved from 35% to 11%.
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Not sure how it will shake out, but I feel like it's got to be possible that the pro-union votes aggregates on Labour and they end up with a few more seats than previously?
#Hove Wish by-election
Patricia Mountain – UK Independence Party - 34
Peter Revell – Conservative - 756
Bella Sankey – Labour - 1,519
Stewart Stone – Liberal Democrat - 96
Ollie Sykes – Green - 190
Labour 58% vs 34% last time.
There is a reasonable chance that come the next election the SNP, whilst still having a strong plurality, will not be near their current peak, especially if it looks like Labour might be heading for a majority.
However, there is a level at which even in such times people should not have gotten close to perpetrating such a scandal.
" The new leader’s pragmatic and drama-free focus on the issues that matter most to voters is both welcome and effective...
...What Mr Sunak has brought to office is a welcome combination of pragmatism and reasonableness. He has focused his attention on trying to find solutions to the key issues that matter most to voters...
...Crucially, he has gone about his task without the drama that has been such a feature of British politics in recent years.
...Whether Mr Sunak’s approach can save the Tories from what polls suggest is certain defeat at the next election is too soon to tell. But the party’s prospects look better than they did six weeks ago."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-the-prime-minister-reasonable-rishi-wrzv7wc56 (£)
Vote Tory to continue national decline.
Labour shouldn't be able to manage a majority being so far behind, but it is not a very realistic goal, and not a failure if they fall just short but can take control.
s that a plane? A bird? … No, it’s a moose!
Mount Rainier National Park recorded its first-ever moose sighting on Thursday. This is also the first-ever moose sighting in southwest Washington, the National Park Service said.
https://twitter.com/MountRainierNPS/status/1600992620062318595?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1600992620062318595|twgr^0f073b929669a562a559a6dae9b78dc68c01ba3e|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.seattletimes.com/life/outdoors/first-ever-recorded-moose-sighting-in-mount-rainier-national-park/
The last recorded moose sighting in the region was just west of Stevens Pass in 2009, according to the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
In August, the Washington State Department of Transportation spotted a moose on the I-90 wildlife undercrossing at Resort Creek, which is just southwest of Snoqualmie Pass. Another sighting was recorded in the same area in September, the WDFW said.
“Could this be same moose recently observed on the I-90 wildlife undercrossing at Resort Creek?” the park service said on Twitter in reference to the August sighting.
As of 2015, there were an estimated 5,000 moose living in Washington state, according to the WDFW. Washington moose belong to a subspecies called Shiras moose. The majority of Washington’s moose live in the Selkirk Mountains in northeast Washington (Pend Oreille, Stevens, Ferry and Spokane counties) with smaller populations in the North Cascades, Okanogan and the Blue Mountains of southeast Washington.
If you ever spot a moose, here are some tips from the WDFW for preventing conflicts:
> Never feed moose: Moose that are fed by people often become aggressive when they are not fed as expected. They may attack another person who has no food to offer.
> Do not approach any moose: Even if moose seem quiet and gentle, they can change their disposition rather quickly. Moose often lie down in the shade of buildings and trees to rest and cool down. If approached repeatedly, even by the best-intentioned onlookers, a moose might become stressed and aggressive.
> Keep dogs under control and away from moose: Moose consider dogs, which are close relatives of wolves, to be a direct threat. Moose have been known to go out of their way to kick at a dog, even one on a leash or in a fenced yard.
SSI - My own personal strategy, should I come face-to-face with a moose, would be to convey my lifelong love for Bullwinkle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwinkle_J._Moose
There has been a notable drop in drama, true, though after the last 5 months that's not hard.
He passed Truss's tenure on Wednesday.
Here it's lovely this time of year - PROVIDED you bring along your thermal underwear!
It really is.
I mean Brazil is the home of the most World Cup wins.
1. Iain Duncan Smith can't half pick them! First there was Dominic Cummings; then there was Michelle Mone.
2. Here is Mone's "Be the boss" review, published in 2016.
Here's a government blurb about it.
Sajid Javid loved it.
Iain Duncan Smith loved it.
But guess who really loved it. The Prince's Trust loved it to bits!
3. She already had an OBE by then - for services to the lingerie industry.
She had a record flogging weight loss pills too. (She claimed she lost 6 stone by taking them.)
How did this character get to be appointed to the House of Lords?
One might as well ask why the truly tasty Nicholas van Hoogstraten gets given refugees to accommodate...
Starmer, elected as Prime Minister has five years as head of a coalition government. Forced by his own backbenchers, he promises a referendum on rejoining the EU in the event that he gets back into Number 10.
Winning a narrow majority, he's forced into this. Starmer opposes rejoining, and points to the massive splits it would create in the country. Despite being joined by Conservative leader Rees-Mogg in opposing British membership, the people vote, by a 52-48 margin to rejoin the EU.
https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2022/1209/1340855-eu-norway-uk-russia-fisheries/
Internal EU correspondence reveals an increasing impatience with Norway over fisheries issues since 2017, with member states accusing Norway of trying to increase its access to EU waters while restricting EU vessels access to Norwegian waters.
At the same time, some EU member states believe that the UK has moved closer to Norway on fisheries post-Brexit, by extension compromising its hardline anti-Russian stance over the invasion of Ukraine.
Seems strange
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1601252580159418368?t=NvCUDbO9S6X2jJOsVOjTuw&s=19
Of course before his presidency was terminated after just one month - he literally caught his death of cold delivering the longest inauguration speech in US history - WHH had achieved a fair amount, for example serving as first governor of Indiana Territory AND winning the Battle of Tippecanoe.
Not sure that Liz Truss has quite as impressive a resume.
And re. the 'there's a pandemic on' mitigation - I think it's the opposite, she saw the whole thing as an unbeatable opportunity for using her connections to trouser a load of taxpayers' money.
HOWEVER, he is NOT a 24/7 disaster zone like his predecessor(s). His value is limited, but more than nil.
Whereas BJ was big fat zero, certainly that was the average: up a mountain at the start, down a hole at the end.
And LT was less than zero, from Budget Soup to Fracking Nuts.
Write a limerick about
a young poet of Japan, whose verses would never quite scan
(I'm sure you all know that one? About trying to get as many syllables into the last line as he possibly can...)
Anyway, this is what it came up with:
There once was a young poet of Japan
Whose verses would never quite scan
He would try and he'd try
But his meter would die
And his readers would quickly disband.
Which is not bad and I guess no worse than some of the dross Edward Lear came up with.
As to reasons to vote for Labour, let’s see what Reeves says. She is quietly impressive.
Anyway I expect Sunak will mitigate the polls but Starmer is likely to be the next PM
'Sir: On the day after the Brexit vote, I met my daughter (a City lawyer) who was absolutely incandescent at my decision. She did not mince her words. Nearly seven years on she was right and I was wrong. There is no defence to Brexit.'
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1601199989430140928?s=46&t=vrKykZbgjhmiVKqA3imNSA
(I was surprised to see her save that notorious tax loophole, "carried interest": https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/carried-interest-loophole-survives-the-inflation-reduction-act )
As a practical matter, she may have a better chance of running for re-election as an independent in 2024, since many Democratic voters have soured on her.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrsten_Sinema
US Senator Kyrsten Sinema has announced her intention to leave the Democratic Party, four years after being elected.
But she emphasised that she will not sit with Republicans and said she would instead serve as an independent member in the chamber.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63917462
"Registering as an independent and showing up to work with the title independent is a reflection of who I've always been, and it's a reflection of who Arizona is," she said in a Twitter video
So she was being dishonest before?
He should have got ChatGPT to write his letter
"The End of High-School English
I’ve been teaching English for 12 years, and I’m astounded by what ChatGPT can produce."
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/openai-chatgpt-writing-high-school-english-essay/672412/?utm_source=apple_news
Not that I am a huge fan, but it’s good to keep things factual.
I’ll leave it to you to confirm whether this is a sexual fetish or to fulfil some other urge.
The economic problems facing the country are so grave many Brexiteer Tories are reluctantly coming around to the SM as a compromise (I am not commenting on the rights or wrongs of this, just pointing out the facts). Starmer seems dead against it, by contrast (presumably because he desperately wants and needs to win back the Red Wall)
Of course this may be panto from Starmer, and he doesn't mean it, but this is the impression given
How dare they!!!
You may not like it but hurling personal abuse does not change the fact that this is his position
Even the dimmest of your fellow travellers are realising they left a shit-stain on the rug.
“More”, which was your original, cum-stained assertion, was entire fantasy.
Most Leavers wanted Levelling up and reduced immigration and regained sovereignty, not an even stronger globalist London disconnected from the rest of the country
Meanwhile the dinghy people keep coming
I can understand why many Leavers, rich or poor, are now looking at the state of things and wondering: What was Brexit all FOR?
Personally, I can see the arguments from democracy and sovereignty, but I get why many don't
Plus, Big G loves to troll, and presumably loves the reaction.
Less levelling up, more like just levelling.
Sad really but then you do not seem to be able to help yourself
For quite a while, certainly since Blair, maybe since Thatch and the Big Bang, we've collectively been happy to have global finance sit in London, as long as we can get some taxes as a result. For most of us, it's felt a bit money-for-nothing. But the costs have crept up on us.
Partly, we all hate London; it's got all the wealth and now normal people can't afford to move there, even if they want to. It sucks up talent and investment that could be doing other things. It also means there's a disconnect between what normal people do and the national wealth; this massive taxpayer that is, at best, semi-attached to the rest of the UK.
We hate it, but can't do without the money it provides.
Just a few minutes ago they gave me a *second* refund for a pair of slippers that I'm currently wearing.
I'm not exactly in tears at getting a 'free' £100 quid or so from them - but... it's a bit odd.
https://populistsplaybook.com/2022/12/09/computer-says-no/
(Southgate on Ben White and Steve Holland disagreement) 'As far as I'm aware, the article used words like 'alleged' so obviously didn't feel strongly enough about it. Ben left for personal reasons, we made that very clear, and especially in this day and age, it's important that is respected.'
Not exactly the strongest of denials, though it’s possible that they are happy for everyone to think this is what happened.