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Ipsos Scotland poll has the SNP winning 56 of the 57 Scottish seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited December 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    People without flexible mortgages, or working for private employers, and with only modest utility bills are doing fine at the moment, particularly in London.

    There is a simple reason that you don't see the people who are scrimping and saving because they cannot afford a night out.
    But that would be noticeable from fewer people being out. The pubs, bars and restaurants (and trains home) have been heaving for weeks, not just tonight.
    I have been sayig this for several months; no-one seems to want to believe it. PB has been overtaken by the opposite of boosterism - everyone else is having a blast!

    Ooof - and well done on the quiz win!
  • BozzaBozza Posts: 37
    Leon said:

    AND TAKE AWAY THEIR PENSIONS

    Excellent idea. I am reminded of Ronald Reagan and the Air Traffic Controllers. Crush the saboteurs!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:


    It would be far too dominant an entity. Where is there a successful example of devolution to such a majority demographic with a state?

    I don't think you're wrong about England dominating. I had thought that the problem with the current setup is that it isn't fair on England to have no representation.

    I thought a solution might be to have each nation have its own Parliament, with Westminster only being (at most) 200 MPs responsible for foreign affairs, defence and maybe broad overview of some other departments.

    But as you say, the issue would come in the first GE when England voted for a Conservative government, but the UK voted Labour. You'd have a UK Labour PM trying to deal with a English Conservative FM (or whatever they'd call themselves). I don't know how that would work at all.

    A possible solution I've seen proposed is to have London have its own devolved assembly too, not in England, so there are five (not four) which would weaken England though whether it would weaken England enough, and quite what people living in London would think about being told they could be Londoners or British but not English (at least not politically) I'm not sure (who would they support in the FIFA World Cup?).
    The lopsided constitutional set up, where the smaller nations have their own parliaments but the dominant nation doesn't, is I think probably the norm where you have these kind of unequal federations. I belive for instance that Tobago has its own parliament but Trinidad doesn't, similarly with Nevis vs St Kitts.
    It certainly complicates things, it would be far easier if England wasn't 90% of the UK's population. I think in practical terms, if there were an English FM and a British PM, the first time the two disagreed fundamentally on a really important issue where the UK PM was on paper the decision maker the UK would break up.
    No it wouldn't because the position would be no different to before in terms of the UK PM's powers for the non English home nations, just England would finally have its own First Minister for the same domestic policy the other home nations do
    Supporters of an English Parliament never explain how it would improve the governance of England.
    Well, for a start it would be governed by English representatives in the interests of England.
    Few things are unequivocally in the interests of England (as opposed to just some in England) and of those that are, I struggle to think of many that Westminster can't happily pass.
    If say the Tories had a majority in England but not in the UK and Welsh and Scottish Labour MPs voted on English laws, even if SNP MPs didn't, then that is a clear example of England being overruled at Westminster
    But we're looking for how an English Parliament would lead to England being governed better not to it being governed by the Tories.
    So SNP home rule fine for Scotland but not Tory home rule for England?
    This isn't an apt comparison. It's not about parties. We need to look at the fundamentals. England dominates Westminster and Westminster is massively more powerful than Holyrood. Also Westminster has power over Scotland but Holyrood has no power over England. The imbalance still favours England - algebraic expansion says so - but not as much as it did before devolution. The impact of the so-called 'asymmetric devolution' was therefore not to disadvantage England in the Union but to mitigate its previous overwhelming advantage.
    For now, the moment England votes Tory but gets a UK Labour government as in February 1974 or 1964 that will change
    So you're comparing something that might theoretically happen to England but hasn't for 50 years to something that happens to Scotland pretty much all the time. Plus you don't want to give them a vote on doing something about it. That, H, truly is "asymmetric".
    Scotland already has its own Parliament, tough, England doesn't. They voted 55% to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum, those are the rules. If you stay in the UK then all non devolved matters are decided at Westminster.

    arsehole
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
  • Julian Knight has whip removed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Just an idle thought.
    Why don't workers in the private sector who are unhappy with their terms and conditions get organised, join a trade union, and engage in some tough collective bargaining?

    1. In the private sector if you make yourself an awkward bugger you will end up losing your job. Sure the law says you shouldn't be victimised for trade union work, but that doesn't butter the parsnips when it happens and you'll have a tough job proving it.

    2. In the public sector if you strike then there isn't much risk to your job as a result. The country will still want schools and hospitals. In the private sector if you striker them your employer loses business to companies that don't have strikes and you lose your job because your employer runs out of money.
    In practice, private sector workers refused a payrise simply leave to a better employer who will pay more. It is one reason that there are so many private sector vacancies.

    The public sector doesn't have that possibility as we are at the mercy of monopoly employers. The only thing we can do is to leave the sector or the country, and indeed that is exactly what is happening.
    Yes you do, you can move to the private sector, private hospitals for example or private dentists or private schools
    But didn't you claim that public sector benefits were so much better? On that basis all the BUPA nurses should be flocking back to the NHS.
    The pensions are certainly
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but what the fuck is wrong with these people?

    Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Ordinary people need to take well-below inflationary pay rises in order for the rich to keep getting inflation-plus increases.
    I don't see Sunak demanding that companies keep prices, profits and dividends well below inflation.
    Good grief no, that would be 'interfering in the market'.

    The market does not apply to labour, obvs.
    The other side of the coin is what is the level which people are willing to accept, for the job security and (often tremendous) perks that they've accumulated by working in the public sector.

    The edge of the coin is that all public sector employees are paid for by the govt. Which means ballooning debt or rising taxes.

    Neither of which are good given we're heading into recession...
    I'd like to know what tremendous perks I have accumulated? A lunch break would be nice.
    Of course. And when we say 'the public sector' it isn't uniform. But I know someone who just retired from the NHS 2 years ago who was on so much annual holiday (which had grown by a day for every year of service) that he made every week into a 4 day week. And retired with a tremendous pension. From his position in hospital admin.

    Similarly, my aunt was in the army and then worked for HMRC. Her pension was not available for someone in the private sector.

    Indeed, unless you work in the City of London, are a corporate or commercial lawyer, or work for a big tech firm or are a director or executive of a big company, most workers are better off in the public sector taking account of more final salary pensions, longer holiday entitlements etc too
    Yet there is an exodus of staff, and many unfilled vacancies.

    Tories really don't like market forces much nowadays.

    Is there? I haven't noticed an exodus of public sector admin staff, civil servants, surgeons etc. Nor of train drivers who get well above average salaries, holidays and pensions nor of Royal Mail workers to delivery firms like Amazon which give them fewer perks and time off
    As a matter of fact we cannot keep admin staff, and it is really impacting on service efficiency.

    The exodus of senior doctors is because of the way pension contributions are taxed. Many cannot afford to work full time even if they want to do so.
    Oh how hard it is on £98 k a year, plus long holidays and career average earning pensions private sector workers can only dream of!

    https://www.healthjobs.co.uk/blog/the-gp-salary--and--pay-guide/
    I think you should remind your doctor of that fact next time you are in the surgery. Maybe just as he is about to give you an injection?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:


    It would be far too dominant an entity. Where is there a successful example of devolution to such a majority demographic with a state?

    I don't think you're wrong about England dominating. I had thought that the problem with the current setup is that it isn't fair on England to have no representation.

    I thought a solution might be to have each nation have its own Parliament, with Westminster only being (at most) 200 MPs responsible for foreign affairs, defence and maybe broad overview of some other departments.

    But as you say, the issue would come in the first GE when England voted for a Conservative government, but the UK voted Labour. You'd have a UK Labour PM trying to deal with a English Conservative FM (or whatever they'd call themselves). I don't know how that would work at all.

    A possible solution I've seen proposed is to have London have its own devolved assembly too, not in England, so there are five (not four) which would weaken England though whether it would weaken England enough, and quite what people living in London would think about being told they could be Londoners or British but not English (at least not politically) I'm not sure (who would they support in the FIFA World Cup?).
    The lopsided constitutional set up, where the smaller nations have their own parliaments but the dominant nation doesn't, is I think probably the norm where you have these kind of unequal federations. I belive for instance that Tobago has its own parliament but Trinidad doesn't, similarly with Nevis vs St Kitts.
    It certainly complicates things, it would be far easier if England wasn't 90% of the UK's population. I think in practical terms, if there were an English FM and a British PM, the first time the two disagreed fundamentally on a really important issue where the UK PM was on paper the decision maker the UK would break up.
    No it wouldn't because the position would be no different to before in terms of the UK PM's powers for the non English home nations, just England would finally have its own First Minister for the same domestic policy the other home nations do
    Supporters of an English Parliament never explain how it would improve the governance of England.
    Well, for a start it would be governed by English representatives in the interests of England.
    Few things are unequivocally in the interests of England (as opposed to just some in England) and of those that are, I struggle to think of many that Westminster can't happily pass.
    If say the Tories had a majority in England but not in the UK and Welsh and Scottish Labour MPs voted on English laws, even if SNP MPs didn't, then that is a clear example of England being overruled at Westminster
    But we're looking for how an English Parliament would lead to England being governed better not to it being governed by the Tories.
    So SNP home rule fine for Scotland but not Tory home rule for England?
    This isn't an apt comparison. It's not about parties. We need to look at the fundamentals. England dominates Westminster and Westminster is massively more powerful than Holyrood. Also Westminster has power over Scotland but Holyrood has no power over England. The imbalance still favours England - algebraic expansion says so - but not as much as it did before devolution. The impact of the so-called 'asymmetric devolution' was therefore not to disadvantage England in the Union but to mitigate its previous overwhelming advantage.
    For now, the moment England votes Tory but gets a UK Labour government as in February 1974 or 1964 that will change
    So you're comparing something that might theoretically happen to England but hasn't for 50 years to something that happens to Scotland pretty much all the time. Plus you don't want to give them a vote on doing something about it. That, H, truly is "asymmetric".
    Scotland already has its own Parliament, tough, England doesn't. They voted 55% to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum, those are the rules. If you stay in the UK then all non devolved matters are decided at Westminster.

    arsehole
    Bless you!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    edited December 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
  • Julian Knight has whip removed

    I have several, erm, interesting anecdotes about Julian which I'm pretty sure I can't share here. A very odd man with a very short temper.
  • MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    People without flexible mortgages, or working for private employers, and with only modest utility bills are doing fine at the moment, particularly in London.

    There is a simple reason that you don't see the people who are scrimping and saving because they cannot afford a night out.
    But that would be noticeable from fewer people being out. The pubs, bars and restaurants (and trains home) have been heaving for weeks, not just tonight.
    Seems like a sampling issue to me.

    The kind of people who would be out and about in London town on a weeknight probably correlate pretty well with the kind of people who are still doing well financially. Much the same might be true of a midweek market in Bath.

    How large a fraction they are of the nation, and how representative they are, I don't know. But I think my answers would be "smallish" and "not particularly".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    Wonderful. How long have you been doing that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Ordinary people need to take well-below inflationary pay rises in order for the rich to keep getting inflation-plus increases.
    I don't see Sunak demanding that companies keep prices, profits and dividends well below inflation.
    Good grief no, that would be 'interfering in the market'.

    The market does not apply to labour, obvs.
    The other side of the coin is what is the level which people are willing to accept, for the job security and (often tremendous) perks that they've accumulated by working in the public sector.

    The edge of the coin is that all public sector employees are paid for by the govt. Which means ballooning debt or rising taxes.

    Neither of which are good given we're heading into recession...
    I'd like to know what tremendous perks I have accumulated? A lunch break would be nice.
    Of course. And when we say 'the public sector' it isn't uniform. But I know someone who just retired from the NHS 2 years ago who was on so much annual holiday (which had grown by a day for every year of service) that he made every week into a 4 day week. And retired with a tremendous pension. From his position in hospital admin.

    Similarly, my aunt was in the army and then worked for HMRC. Her pension was not available for someone in the private sector.

    Indeed, unless you work in the City of London, are a corporate or commercial lawyer, or work for a big tech firm or are a director or executive of a big company, most workers are better off in the public sector taking account of more final salary pensions, longer holiday entitlements etc too
    Yet there is an exodus of staff, and many unfilled vacancies.

    Tories really don't like market forces much nowadays.

    Is there? I haven't noticed an exodus of public sector admin staff, civil servants, surgeons etc. Nor of train drivers who get well above average salaries, holidays and pensions nor of Royal Mail workers to delivery firms like Amazon which give them fewer perks and time off
    As a matter of fact we cannot keep admin staff, and it is really impacting on service efficiency.

    The exodus of senior doctors is because of the way pension contributions are taxed. Many cannot afford to work full time even if they want to do so.
    Oh how hard it is on £98 k a year, plus long holidays and career average earning pensions private sector workers can only dream of!

    https://www.healthjobs.co.uk/blog/the-gp-salary--and--pay-guide/
    I think you should remind your doctor of that fact next time you are in the surgery. Maybe just as he is about to give you an injection?
    When they are not on holiday maybe
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD likes to n

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    Wonderful. How long have you been doing that?
    Around 10 years (started at the bottom and am now the university Marshal). It’s been great this year to have the graduates back in person in the superb venues (Assembly Rooms and the Abbey).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    I’m thinking of starting a hedge fund. How long will it take before I have enough money to plant a hedge?
  • Julian Knight has whip removed

    A Robert Mapplethorpe photo comes to mind when I see stuff like this. Anyone wishing to see said photo should Google Robert Mapplethorpe Self Portrait with Whip, but very much nsfw and indeed unsuitable for most members of polite society.
  • HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    I’m thinking of starting a hedge fund. How long will it take before I have enough money to plant a hedge?
    If you pay a manager to look after your fund, you might never have enough money to plant it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    You and @MaxPB are backed up by the phenomenon of central London bustle

    "Londoners call for 'another lockdown' as Oxford Street and Regent Street rammed with shoppers in run up to Christmas"

    https://www.mylondon.news/whats-on/whats-on-news/londoners-call-another-lockdown-oxford-25673241
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    I’m thinking of starting a hedge fund. How long will it take before I have enough money to plant a hedge?
    The key is to invest other peoples money, and keep a share of it. Much more certain than investing your own money.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    Seriously comrade??

    I manage a team of support workers in the public sector and every single day I am humbled by their commitment, compassion and motivation to do their best in these low paid jobs under terrible circumstances....

    And then you have these fucking idiots on pbCom who refer to pensions, GP partner salaries, and other Daily Mail prejudices that are just disgusting, and really if you knew, you would be ashamed...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    People without flexible mortgages, or working for private employers, and with only modest utility bills are doing fine at the moment, particularly in London.

    There is a simple reason that you don't see the people who are scrimping and saving because they cannot afford a night out.
    But that would be noticeable from fewer people being out. The pubs, bars and restaurants (and trains home) have been heaving for weeks, not just tonight.
    Seems like a sampling issue to me.

    The kind of people who would be out and about in London town on a weeknight probably correlate pretty well with the kind of people who are still doing well financially. Much the same might be true of a midweek market in Bath.

    How large a fraction they are of the nation, and how representative they are, I don't know. But I think my answers would be "smallish" and "not particularly".
    I tend to think it's the other way around, there's been far too much group think and my gut feeling is that official forecasters are now going on the prevailing sentiment rather than using the actual evidence. Eventually everything comes back down to earth so 6 months from now these forecasts will look hugely pessimistic in hindsight but no one ever gets sacked because we ended up doing better than we thought.

    Also, you haven't really addressed the point, it's busier now than I've ever known or seen a very cold Wednesday evening in December. Either we have more rich people (entirely possible) spending money than years past or the economy is doing nowhere near as badly as is being suggested by the BoE. Even if it's the first that spending will result in growth that is going unnoticed.
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    I’m thinking of starting a hedge fund. How long will it take before I have enough money to plant a hedge?
    The key is to invest other peoples money, and keep a share of it. Much more certain than investing your own money.
    After all, every trade is someone getting it right and someone getting it wrong. Very few people in any field do better than a successful random walk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    So Knight from Solihull is the mystery Tory MP?
  • Foxy said:

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

    Well, all the remainers were banished, so what is left…
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited December 2022
    Foxy said:

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

    Seems a labour mp had the whip suspended as well today

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/07/labour-mp-conor-mcginn-has-whip-suspended-over-complaint?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    It's just completely meaningless to take the average pay of surgeons, teachers, and lollipop ladies, and compare that with the average of investment bankers, accountants, supermarket shelf stackers, and cleaners.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited December 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    Today is my birthday so I like to think I'm a good judge at how December 7 feels.

    I take the day off each year and go shopping, get a haircut and eat out with a few drinks in Leeds city centre and today felt very much like it was 2019 again. Heaving with Christmas shoppers and a gloriously sunny but chilly day. Although I did the same thing last year, it felt quiet as it was shortly after Omicron appeared. 2020 was shopping and a takeaway with a bottle of red at home.
  • tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    Seriously comrade??

    I manage a team of support workers in the public sector and every single day I am humbled by their commitment, compassion and motivation to do their best in these low paid jobs under terrible circumstances....

    And then you have these fucking idiots on pbCom who refer to pensions, GP partner salaries, and other Daily Mail prejudices that are just disgusting, and really if you knew, you would be ashamed...

    I'm not sure GPs would even count as public sector in the figures HYUFD quotes.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    Foxy said:

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

    Seems a labour mp had the whip suspended as well today

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/07/labour-mp-conor-mcginn-has-whip-suspended-over-complaint?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    And Nick Brown is 3 months into a suspension of unknown cause:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/07/labour-mp-nick-brown-whip-suspended-complaint
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    RH1992 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    Today is my birthday so I like to think I'm a good judge at how December 7 feels.

    I take the day off each year and go shopping, get a haircut and eat out with a few drinks in Leeds city centre and today felt very much like it was 2019 again. Heaving with Christmas shoppers and a gloriously sunny but chilly day. Although I did the same thing last year, it felt quiet as it was shortly after Omicron appeared. 2020 was shopping and a takeaway with a bottle of red at home.
    Happy Birthday!
  • Seattle Times ($) - Boeing lost hundreds of experienced Seattle-area engineers last month

    by Dominic Gates, ST aerospace reporter

    Last month, hundreds of very experienced Seattle-area Boeing engineers walked out the door. They chose to retire early with the realization they’d have a significant cut to their pension payouts if they delayed.

    Though this quirk in traditional pension plans is not unique to Boeing, the outcome is a local brain drain that will accentuate a looming experience gap at the jetmaker.

    Boeing has pushed out the launch of an all-new airplane toward the end of this decade. By then, there’ll be a limited number of senior engineers left who worked on development of the last all-new plane — the 787, delivered in 2011 — and have detailed knowledge of that complex process and its pitfalls.

    Boeing’s white-collar union said more than 500 highly experienced U.S. engineers and more than 130 technical staff retired in November.

    For most of them, it was because a pending interest rate adjustment would otherwise have dramatically slashed their lump sum pension payouts by as much as an entire year’s salary.

    To try to retain the most critical expertise, Boeing identified 26 key engineers represented by its white-collar union, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, and offered them specific financial enticements to stay, SPEEA spokesperson Bill Dugovich said. . . .
  • RH1992 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Supposedly the UK is in recession yet there's no sign of it, I'm on the way home and the tube is rush hour packed full of people coming back from Old Street. Standing room only at half ten on a Wednesday. Not seen this in ages and usually only around sporting events rather than people just generally going out.

    I wonder whether the ONS and BoE are properly picking up the signals because it's been like this for weeks, people are out there spending. Compared to the last proper recession in 2008 it's completely different, back then you could feel it, people weren't going out, jobs weren't available and people seemed depressed. Today there's none of that, we've still got a general labour shortage, everyone's out having fun and spending money.

    We could have a situation where six months after declaring we had a recession in 2022 the ONS quietly revise it away and it turns out there wasn't a recession and we were never really close to one.

    Christmas.
    No, I've been out around Christmas, this was properly rush out packed and it's been like that in the evenings for weeks. Even Christmas pre-pandemic wasn't like this, Wednesday isn't a particularly big day for Xmas parties either companies tend to pick Thursday or Friday. Even the pub quiz prize was over £200 which means more than 100 people taking part (we won too).

    There's still lots of money being spent, but it seems the statistical models assume it won't be.
    Well I’m commuting home from London after a Xmas do. I’m not sure Old St is completely representative of the U.K. economy.
    It’s not just there though, Bath is exceeding busy this year. Wednesday afternoon is not a normal busy slot on Dec 7th.
    I’m genuinely curious how you know what is normal on the 7 December. Do you keep track? Clearly it’s not possible to compare with 2021 or 2020. It’s definitely busier than during the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily say all that much.
    Context. I officiate at graduation in the Bath Assembly rooms. Last time was 2019. Each year, between ceremonies I go shopping in the Christmas market nd surroundings, it is noticeably busier this year than previously.

    Obviously not official data, and no numbers, but that’s my impression, and why I know what Dec 7th usually feels like.
    Today is my birthday so I like to think I'm a good judge at how December 7 feels.

    I take the day off each year and go shopping, get a haircut and eat out with a few drinks in Leeds city centre and today felt very much like it was 2019 again. Heaving with Christmas shoppers and a gloriously sunny but chilly day. Although I did the same thing last year, it felt quiet as it was shortly after Omicron appeared. 2020 was shopping and a takeaway with a bottle of red at home.
    December 7 - truly a day that lives on in infamy?

    Happy Birthday!!!
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited December 2022
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

    Seems a labour mp had the whip suspended as well today

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/07/labour-mp-conor-mcginn-has-whip-suspended-over-complaint?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    And Nick Brown is 3 months into a suspension of unknown cause:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/07/labour-mp-nick-brown-whip-suspended-complaint
    I think there are currently no fewer than 16 MPs who have had the whip suspended and are technically independents, which is a huge number.

    Worth remembering that this covers a range of things from serious criminal allegations to things more related to policy differences and employment complaints (not to minimise, but not at the criminal level). They also range from complaints where the MP will be cleared in time (like Conor Burns recently) to actual criminal convictions (Claudia Webbe & Margaret Ferrier).

    Also note that parties have differing policies on when suspensions are made. There is a Conservative MP who hasn't been attending Parliament since April over extremely serious allegations (which may or may not come to anything of course). But he's still listed as a Conservative MP and I believe voted in the leadership elections.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    According to Wikipedia, Julian Knight is a famed Australian mass murderer.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Knight_(murderer)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    It's just completely meaningless to take the average pay of surgeons, teachers, and lollipop ladies, and compare that with the average of investment bankers, accountants, supermarket shelf stackers, and cleaners.
    It isn't, it shows that despite public sector whinging they on average earn more than the average UK salary and get a better pension
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    How can a below inflation pay rise, lead to an inflationary spiral?

    Mick Lynch has been campaigning for an 11% payrise for train drivers and workers, above inflation, Dave Ward rejected a 9% payrise for postal workers, nurses want a 17% payrise when inflation is even now 10%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10926153/RMT-union-chief-Mick-Lynch-insists-striking-rail-workers-deserve-11-pay-rise.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/10/uk-nurses-pay-rise-strike-minister-chris-heaton-harris-nhs
    Surely the simple fact that we have a desperate shortage of nurses means that we need to pay them substantially more in order to attract new recruits. That's basic economics, isn't it?
    Meanwhile folk are queueing round the block to become hedge fund managers. You could fill all the jobs for a fraction of the pay.
    Few make it to hedge fund managers and if you don't perform and made a profit for your clients and firm you will soon be out
    HYUFD..are you seriously for real? Do these kind of thoughts really occupy your brain.

    I'm just putting it out there...but are what the fuck is wrong with these people. Seriously, if you had someone with these views at work you would just humour them and hope they go somewhere else...

    The average public sector worker gets £593 a week, the average private sector worker only £574 a week and a worse pension than their public sector counterparts. Hedge fund managers and investment bankers and their bonuses are the exception not the rule and have to perform to keep those high earnings

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55089900
    It's just completely meaningless to take the average pay of surgeons, teachers, and lollipop ladies, and compare that with the average of investment bankers, accountants, supermarket shelf stackers, and cleaners.
    It isn't, it shows that despite public sector whinging they on average earn more than the average UK salary and get a better pension
    No it doesn't. The average doesn't mean anything as the mix of jobs in the private and public sectors is so different.

    I'm not arguing the reverse, by the way, that public sector employees are desperately hard done by or saintly. There are lazy p1ss-takers in both sectors, and dedicated people who take pride in doing their job well for the benefit of customers/the public in both. I just don't think the comparison of averages means very much at all.

    For a start because it is possible to move between sectors relatively easily. Ultimately, why aren't the private sector workers simply applying for public sector jobs which, after all, are widely advertised (or vice versa)?

    I've personally worked in both. In my particular career, the pay is typically better in the private sector but the work-life balance typically better in the public sector - so you take your choice. No doubt it's different in different lines of work, and isn't uniform across employers in either sector.
  • IanB2 said:

    So Knight from Solihull is the mystery Tory MP?

    Reading between the lines I am not sure this is the same incident/MP as was mentioned a few days ago as retaining the whip. I think this is as a result of something that happened in the last couple of days - though I may be misreading this.
  • IanB2 said:

    So Knight from Solihull is the mystery Tory MP?

    Reading between the lines I am not sure this is the same incident/MP as was mentioned a few days ago as retaining the whip. I think this is as a result of something that happened in the last couple of days - though I may be misreading this.
    My understanding is that it's related to the third party complaints made over the weekend, with the sudden removal of the whip after the alleged victim went to the Met to complain themselves today.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited December 2022
    Off-topic, re. the alleged coup plot in Germany:

    * Odd how "former parachute unit commander Rüdiger von P., 69," who is alleged to have been in line to run the military arm of the new government, hasn't been fully named. Loads of people must know who he is.

    * Oh dear oh dear, there is a link betwen the Querdenkers and the followers of Rudolf Steiner (anthroposophists as they call themselves). (Steiner thought he understood about viruses, seeing them as nothing more than bits of broken cell.) Wouldn't surprise me if this then connects with Former Commander P once the rest of his surname is revealed.

    * Noticeably absent so far: any comment by Donald Trump on the goings-on. (Not on his Truth Social account anyway, which interestingly is very easy to find using the DuckDuckGo websearch engine but hard to find using the service provided by Google).

    * 3000 police.

    * No photos of any of the plotters' weapons yet, or details or even a rough idea of what kit they had.

    * No info about funding either.

    * When it comes down to it, not much info about the whole business. You don't need 3000 police to bust a ring of silly old f*rts whose main belief is wibble wobble something something the Second Reich.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    DJ41 said:

    Off-topic, re. the alleged coup plot in Germany:

    * Odd how "former parachute unit commander Rüdiger von P., 69," who is alleged to have been in line to run the military arm of the new government, hasn't been fully named. Loads of people must know who he is.

    * Oh dear oh dear, there is a link betwen the Querdenkers and the followers of Rudolf Steiner (anthroposophists as they call themselves). (Steiner thought he understood about viruses, seeing them as nothing more than bits of broken cell.) Wouldn't surprise me if this then connects with Former Commander P once the rest of his surname is revealed.

    * Noticeably absent so far: any comment by Donald Trump on the goings-on. (Not on his Truth Social account anyway, which interestingly is very easy to find using the DuckDuckGo websearch engine but hard to find using the service provided by Google).

    * 3000 police.

    * No photos of any of the plotters' weapons yet, or details or even a rough idea of what kit they had.

    * No info about funding either.

    * When it comes down to it, not much info about the whole business. You don't need 3000 police to bust a ring of silly old f*rts whose main belief is wibble wobble something something the Second Reich.

    You do know that Duck Duck Go licenses Google search, right?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    rcs1000 said:

    DJ41 said:

    Off-topic, re. the alleged coup plot in Germany:

    * Odd how "former parachute unit commander Rüdiger von P., 69," who is alleged to have been in line to run the military arm of the new government, hasn't been fully named. Loads of people must know who he is.

    * Oh dear oh dear, there is a link betwen the Querdenkers and the followers of Rudolf Steiner (anthroposophists as they call themselves). (Steiner thought he understood about viruses, seeing them as nothing more than bits of broken cell.) Wouldn't surprise me if this then connects with Former Commander P once the rest of his surname is revealed.

    * Noticeably absent so far: any comment by Donald Trump on the goings-on. (Not on his Truth Social account anyway, which interestingly is very easy to find using the DuckDuckGo websearch engine but hard to find using the service provided by Google).

    * 3000 police.

    * No photos of any of the plotters' weapons yet, or details or even a rough idea of what kit they had.

    * No info about funding either.

    * When it comes down to it, not much info about the whole business. You don't need 3000 police to bust a ring of silly old f*rts whose main belief is wibble wobble something something the Second Reich.

    You do know that Duck Duck Go licenses Google search, right?
    I didn't. The search for Trump AND "truth social" gives DJT's TS account as the first item, whereas I didn't find it at all using the same search at Google.

    Before I go to bed: what tartan is Prince Heinrich XIII wearing? Couldn't find it listed in the Scottish Register of Tartans. Perhaps it's his family's own?

    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Foxy said:

    Julian Knight has whip removed

    Have MPs always been this dodgy, or do we have a particularly rum crew at the present time?

    It's more that the whip gets removed these days in response to the slightest allegation. See the Conor Burns case.
  • New thread.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Leon said:

    SACK EVERYONE IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

    Tomorrow marks 5 weeks since Musk sacked everyone at Twitter and it still seems to work fine. Odd because I remember people here saying he’d bankrupted the company and to expect the app to break irretrievably by the weekend.

    Suspect you could do similar with the civil service and not notice much either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Carnyx said:

    Oh. I didn't think to check what type of plane I'd be flying in. It's a 737 Max 8. Are they fixed now, or still well dodgy?

    Should I be alright if we make it past the first few minutes?

    Nice knowing you all, anyway.

    Not to worry. The stats are your friend.

    On our first flight together, Mrs C was very taken aback to find a book on air crash analysis in the airport bookshop, and me buying it and happily reading it on the flight without even realising the incongruity.
    Statistics are ever a good friend.
This discussion has been closed.