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Ipsos Scotland poll has the SNP winning 56 of the 57 Scottish seats – politicalbetting.com
Ipsos Scotland poll has the SNP winning 56 of the 57 Scottish seats – politicalbetting.com
???????BREAKING: SNP would win 56 of 57 seats (new boundaries)? SNP 53% (+9)? LAB 24% (+1)? CON 13% (-6)? LD 6% (-4)? GRN 2% (-1)This would result in the SNP winning 56 of 57 seats under new boundaries (+8), with Labour on 1 (-)Via @IpsosUK, 28 Nov-5 Dec (+/- since May) pic.twitter.com/2qHOobRnac
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Oh, and second, in that instance, like the Conservatives.
More believable than their last effort, granted, but still.
If Labour wins the next election as is likely but needs SNP support for a majority then it will be their problem whether to grant indyref2 or not and their problem to win it with Brown's devomax etc
MICHELLE MONE
Sunak: “Like everyone else I was absolutely shocked to read about the allegations. It’s absolutely right that she is no longer attending the House of Lords and therefore no longer has the Conservative Whip.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1600462541213368320
It does add credence to one of my pet theories though. Decisions by judges create a political backlash. We shouldn't celebrate too much judicial oversight.
He has also cut Starmer's lead from 29% over Truss as best PM to just 5%
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1600428270264033280?s=20&t=ILTzUd1ztqnZV4ktRm8OKA
Headline UK General Election voting intention figures for Scotland are:
SNP: 51% (+7 compared with May 2022 Ipsos poll)
Scottish Conservatives: 13% (-6)
Scottish Labour: 25% (+2)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (-4)
Scottish Green Party: 3% (unchanged)
Other: 2% (unchanged)
Arizona GOP legislator: Danger to democracy in Supreme Court case isn’t theoreticaL
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/07/arizona-legislator-danger-to-democracy-00072580
https://www.politico.eu/article/gas-supply-at-center-of-new-us-uk-energy-pact/
£29m profit, allegedly, lodged in an account whose beneficiaries are the family in the case. Just think about that - £29m profit through using the VIP lane. And the lies (allegedly). It's a huge scandal, it really is.
Revelation that LFI Diagnostics was entity of office that manages wealth of Douglas Barrowman deepens controversy over Tory peer
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/06/revealed-second-firm-pushed-by-michelle-mone-was-secret-entity-of-husbands-office
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1600471864832192513
Trump Organization guilty of tax fraud, New York jury finds
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/06/trump-organization-guilty-verdict-tax-fraud
...The case does not bring to a close the legal challenges facing Trump and his businesses – far from it. Bragg has said that a related investigation he inherited from his predecessor, district attorney Cyrus Vance Jr, is “ongoing”. In that case, investigators are reportedly focused on assessing the integrity of the Trump Organization’s financial statements...
Obviously majority parties shouldn't be drawing electoral maps, but it's a grand old tradition in both red and blue states.
BREAKING: New poll shows support for Scottish independence rising to 56%.
https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1600460244680904709?s=46&t=zQTOzJLnfDApvmBvXDgjIA
Though note the poll also states most Scots don't want indyref2 next year anyway and it is only 56% excluding don't knows
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3764391-gop-smells-blood-with-wounded-trump/
The window for profitably shorting his 2024 ambitions might be starting to close.
Lumping on for a bit more today.
Even a pack of craven curs can take down an old bear if they sense weakness.
A bit like the Stop the War or Liberty & Livelihood Marches. But with a bit more violence, as is often the case in the US.
Can we put in some immigration controls as well?
As soon as indyref2 is allowed there is a 50% chance Scotland votes for independence even before this poll however.
So this Tory government should refuse indyref2 indefinitely. If Labour get in and grant one it is their problem to win it
The alleged intent, as discussed on the last thread, was the creation of sufficient mayhem for a state of emergency to be declared by the President.
Speculation, of course. But not at all like any of the above mentioned marches.
Which British cabinet ministers justifiably feared for their lives as a result of those ?
If another 100,000 people in each state and the entire police and military had joined in then yes it might have been part of a coup but they didn't' and so it wasn't.
Otis Ferry breaking into the HoC might have been a plot to overthrow the government by force if another three million people had followed his lead but they didn't and hence it wasn't.
A good choice IMO. It had t be either him or Putin - and I reckon Zelensky has had more forceful impact, in a way.
I can guarantee that if they had had murderous intent there would have been murders.
That is of course not to diminish the fear that those locked down inside were feeling at what was happening outside.
The poll (the actual results, rather than a comment by a user of Sh*tter, are here) also shows this:
Sturgeon's satisfaction ratio, i.e. opinions on whether she has been doing well or badly as FM:
* among those who would vote for independence: +82 -15
* among those who would vote for the Union: +18 -78
ETA Oddschecker is still showing odds from a previous year; whether that's a failure of Oddschecker's coders or the bookies is left as an exercise for the reader. Probably both.
Vile.
But who could have foreseen denying the people their repeated wish for Indyref2 would have electoral consequences?
And this is seven days after it launched, in Beta Mode, with plenty of bugs and glitches and annoying limitations. It it still better than Google for lots of searches. How good will it be with GPT4 under the hood and a year of polishing and refining?
Google HQ must be unusually concerned
Westminster though can still refuse indyref2 indefinitely post SC judgement
You are the sort of person who would have dehors the suffragettes the vote.
You’re approach guarantees Scotland votes to leave eventually.
Slab, Scon and SLD should all tell the SNP that it's time for an SGE. This makes perfect sense both for voters who want independence and for those who want to keep the Union.
Perhaps someone will start an online petition for one if the politicians won't step up. (Chortle.)
Plus in any case Scots are more likely to vote Yes in an indyref2 under a Tory majority government post Brexit than a Labour government and if indyref2 ever happens it will almost certainly be under a Starmer government.
Indeed even the poll shows the median time Scots want indyref2 is 2024-26 not next year as Sturgeon wanted, by which time Starmer will almost certainly be PM anyway
Had the more energetic leaders of the actual assault encountered either Pelosi or Pence, it's quite conceivable there could have been murder.
There is at the very least circumstantial evidence that Trump et al colluded to ensure a very slow response to the events in the hope that they escalated further. What's very clear indeed is that Trump did his best to incite disorder of some nature.
That it was a disorganised mess doesn't demonstrate that it wasn't a coup attempt.
As I said, speculative for now. But your comparison with the UK demonstrations is absurd.
"Matt Hancock to stand down at next election"
... surprise.
[Edit: oh, I see I'm late to the party]
But - and its a big but - Labour are frit as well. Their Brownian package of reforms fails to address any of the big problems - lack of an English parliament, lack of clarity as to the shape of the UK vs the 3 devolved nations and the 4th non-devolved one, remaining married to FPTP etc etc.
"The trial of a man accused of threatening to kill a solicitor at one of the biggest immigration legal aid firms in the country will take place nearly three years after the alleged incident, the Gazette has learned.
Cavan Medlock, of Harrow, north west London, faces trial in relation to an alleged incident at Duncan Lewis in September 2020.
The trial was due to begin this week at Kingston Crown Court. However, the Crown Prosecution Service told the Gazette that it will now take place on 26 June 2023.
The CPS confirmed that on 21 December last year, Medlock pleaded not guilty to preparation of terrorist acts and making a threat to kill. The trial next June will deal with these two counts.
The CPS said Medlock entered guilty pleas to threatening with a bladed article in a public place, battery, and racially aggravated alarm and harassment or distress in relation to other individuals."
It was this incident amongst others that led the Law Society to write to the Home Secretary (Priti Patel) warning of the consequences of inflammatory language.
And now we have ..... Suella Braverman.
Dominic Grieve's words (here - https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/grieve-for-the-rule-of-law) should - but won't be - heeded. And so the degradation of an essential part of any civilised state, our governance and the forum for public discourse continues.
It is up to the UK government to decide when and if an indyref2 should ever take place and on what terms as the Supreme Court confirmed, not the Scottish government
Fox News' Sean Hannity: "I think Republicans have been unwilling, for whatever reason ... to voting early and voting by mail."
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1600316231285755904
Republicans ought to ostracise whoever is responsible.
I love the way the BBC say "The Reichsbürger movement is estimated to have as many as 21,000 followers, of whom around 5% are considered to belong to the extreme right." Presumably the other 95% are fairly liberal when it comes down to it, believing in live and let live, feeling that everyone should have their say, and being neutral or even positive about immigration.
He hasn’t changed his mind about anything since 1986, when he moved from Weetabix to Special K.
I don't think they would accept it anyway - but just wondering.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63884696
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63886983
Agreed he is insane and dangerous. It's worrying how slow the progress is in the various legal cases against him. Best for those who don't want an explosion of violence would be if he could be removed ASAP. If he isn't, he will soon find some kind of focus I think for the next stage.
Given it would probably take devomax for Scotland to vote No in any indyref2 and then only narrowly, the UK government's power outside England would already be significantly reduced anyway outside of foreign and defence policy and some taxes like income tax, so why not give England the same power over its domestic policies as the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Parliaments have?
At the moment the SNP conflating the UK Parliament with an English Parliament is a big boost for them, however misleading