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Today the US MidTerms – the final final chapter – politicalbetting.com

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  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    rcs1000 said:

    Or it's simply that it's a naive population from a immune response point of view.
    Not sure I understand that. Is there an assumption in there of a new strain?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,018
    Scott_xP said:

    Kids today will have no idea the joys of buying physical objects from a real expert person in a bricks and mortar store

    People lament change, but you can chart the decline of the nation through the closure of your favourite stores...
    What joys would that be? The joy of being harassed by a sales bod more intent on selling you what gets him more commission than what you actually need? The joy of being browbeat towards buying insurance or warranty schemes you neither want nor need? Quite frankly if I never have to set foot in a high street store for anything electronic I will feel I have gone to heaven
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    moonshine said:

    Ring pull
    "Sheffield Haw"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,988

    If is doing a lot of work there!

    PFI is a funding source of balance sheet. Simple things like street lighting are fine.

    Where you need operational flexibility the contracts become massive complex and inflexible - and hence expensive (the whole £x hundred to change of lightbulb class of story)
    PFI is driven by financial engineering rather than value. Hence more complex and expensive than the vanilla alternative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722
    IanB2 said:

    A jury in New York has convicted the Trump Organization of criminal tax fraud in a major blow for the former president.

    Although Donald Trump was not personally on trial, prosecutors insisted he was fully aware of the 15-year scheme in which they said executives were enriched by off-the-books perks to make up for lower salaries, reducing the company’s tax liabilities.

    The 12-person jury in New York’s state court was sent out to deliberate on Monday morning after a six-week trial in which Trump Organization lawyers pinned blame for the fraud solely on the greed of longtime chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg.

    The former close ally of Trump accepted a plea deal earlier this year admitting fraud in exchange for a five-month prison sentence. Prosecutors laid out a case heavily reliant on Weisselberg’s testimony.

    The verdict represents a serious blow to Trump and his family who rose to fame as property moguls in New York but whose business practices have long shadowed in secrecy with rumors of ill-doing.

    I do so love when these sorts of things happen, as the person in charge who naturally normally claims they are totally on top of everything (though with the convoluted nature of corporate structures and multiple companies seemingly purely to dodge liability and tax, I doubt they can be) and super great at it too, then have to profess to know nothing at all about the rather obvious failings and illegality that was going on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,988

    Of course one ex Labour leader was on the right side of the PFI argument
    And plenty else tbf.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722
    edited December 2022

    But why? Why does Britain keep taking rubbish short-term decisions?

    Some of it is fallen human nature, but there's also something that seems distinctive about Britain in my lifetime. It's not just political (see the soon to be ex-department store), but there seems to be a political-cultural aspect.

    So in the Palace of Westminster case, anyone who proposes spending money to fix the problems will be howled down by "let's spend it on our NHS instead".

    I don't know if the Brown report will help, but something's not working right now.
    Yes. Much as I don't want to blame ourselves, the public, since our political leaders do have to bear some responsibility, the problems seem so ingrained I fear we cannot put all the blame on them. Something about our current approach to big decisions is messed up, we seen unable to look more than 5 minutes ahead on anything.

    The Palace of Westminster stuff just pisses me off royally, since as its so obvious that no matter what you were to use it for the place needs fixing up, and it will never be popular to spend money on it, so there was never any point to delay, yet supposedly intelligent MPs and Lords seem not to care.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722

    If it’s so east to achieve growth, pls send your ideas to Rishi.

    However you cut the data - the economy has toileted under the Tories, and so has education, health and public service performance.
    Just those 5?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    kle4 said:

    Just those 5?
    That's four by my count.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Well I cannot believe when I mentioned Fenwicks to Mrs BJ


    She had not only heard of them but said


    I once went for a bra fitting in York at Fenwicks

    29.5 years married and now I find this out

    Thanks PB
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited December 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I'd settle for toilet doors with locks. And classroom doors which close. Oh. And fire alarms which don't randomly go off for no discernible reason.
    Reliable Internet would be a boon too. As would working IT and printers.
    PFI itself has well-rehearsed issues, not least contractual inflexibility and complexity. Friend worked in a university dept in a PFI hospital/medical school. She and her colleagues would never join a union - till one day some heavy shelving, craply installed, collapsed, and almost hit them. They all went to join up after I pointed out how many organizations/companies they'd have to sue if any of them had been injured.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,212
    rcs1000 said:

    We were fourth.
    We are fifth absolutely.

    I looked at the World Bank source.

    Without making any judgement on who was responsible for what, the UK was pretty much top of the league and therefore closing the gap with the USA from 1990 (when records begin in that data set) until the GFC.

    (There is some research that suggests this was due to improved service productivity wrought by various liberal reforms started under Thatcher and continued by Blair.)

    After the GFC, performance was middling, which is not surprising given the necessary deleveraging.

    From Covid/Brexit onwards, performance is dire. We are bottom after Italy and the last forecast from the IMF suggested that this would continue through 2024.

    Given that what growth has been achieved has gone disproportionately to the top one or two deciles (which is not so true anywhere outside the USA), the effect is seeming stagnation for many/most.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    Carnyx said:

    PFI itself has well-rehearsed issues, not least contractual inflexibility and complexity. Friend worked in a university dept in a PFI hospital/medical school. She and her colleagues would never join a union - till one day some heavy shelving, craply installed, collapsed, and almost hit them. They all went to join up after I pointed out how many organizations/companies they'd have to sue if any of them had been injured.
    You’d sue one - their employer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722
    rcs1000 said:

    That's four by my count.
    I'll pretend I thought there was a comma between service and performance, and that that makes sense, rather than admit I cannot count.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited December 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    I was in T R Hayes in Bath last weekend. Such a maze the stairs are colour coded and signed on every floor.

    Anyway, to your question, the first would be Browns of George IVth bridge. Started life as a radio spares shop, but sold all manner of electronic components and wire by the yard, measured in brass on the countertop. Staffed by an old guy in a brown shop coat.

    Dunns metal went not long after. They had shelves of random hardware through the back you could rummage for choice bargains.

    Followed by Murray's tool store (all 3 branches). I bought my favourite screwdriver, and many others, there.

    More recently, the excellent cookshop in Bath is now a branch of ProCook (FFS)

    And the equally excellent homeware shop in Winchester is now a cafe!
    Browns went decades ago - maybe 40-50 years? - though the name was still visible on the side.

    Edit: still is: https://www.google.com/maps/@55.9476598,-3.1915667,3a,47.6y,24.94h,89.06t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s6XFguXhEvgrOB6iTCCGQnA!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?panoid=6XFguXhEvgrOB6iTCCGQnA&cb_client=maps_sv.tactile.gps&w=203&h=100&yaw=284.00842&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i16384!8i8192

    Murrays was still functioning in Morrison St till quite recently, maybe 5-10 years ago? Packed in, alas. Much regret.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    The £100 lightbulb stories are not an inherent feature of PFI but rather mismanagement of them from an organisational standpoint (through ignorance of the rights under the contract mainly).
  • Has Trump personally been indicted for anything, or any indictments likely soon?
    In this case no.

    It seems likely that he's going to be indicted for the document theft thing pretty soon. I would expect that one to land with an audible boink.

    Something seems to be happening with the January 6th investigation which seems to be looking at Trump personally but I don't think we know how they're doing with that one or what might happen when.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    You’d sue one - their employer.
    In theory. In practice ... ands if you don't have union support ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,335
    Rewatching the amazing England Pakistan Test

    I wonder if Ben Stokes is the greatest captain of any significant sport anywhere, at any time

    I cannot think of another captain who is simultaneously so transformational in attitude, so capable AS a captain (guiding the team), and so brilliant in his performances (eg he takes one superlative, pivotal catch in this game)

    This suggests it will be hard for many teams worldwide to match "Bazball". You need a Ben Stokes. We are very very lucky to have him and we will remember these gilded years
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,353
    Carnyx said:

    Browns went decades ago - maybe 40-50 years? - though the name was still visible on the side.

    Edit: still is: https://www.google.com/maps/@55.9476598,-3.1915667,3a,47.6y,24.94h,89.06t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s6XFguXhEvgrOB6iTCCGQnA!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?panoid=6XFguXhEvgrOB6iTCCGQnA&cb_client=maps_sv.tactile.gps&w=203&h=100&yaw=284.00842&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i16384!8i8192

    Murrays was still functioning in Morrison St till quite recently, maybe 5-10 years ago? Packed in, alas. Much regret.

    I was buying from Browns 40 years ago...

    But yes, they went not long after that. For a while Omni Electronics on Dalkeith Road was a viable alternative, but it is long gone as well.

    Murrays moved to Leith, but I don't think they lasted long there.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Can anyone explain why University Challenge is still shielding the contestants from each other?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722
    Leon said:

    Rewatching the amazing England Pakistan Test

    I wonder if Ben Stokes is the greatest captain of any significant sport anywhere, at any time

    I cannot think of another captain who is simultaneously so transformational in attitude, so capable AS a captain (guiding the team), and so brilliant in his performances (eg he takes one superlative, pivotal catch in this game)

    This suggests it will be hard for many teams worldwide to match "Bazball". You need a Ben Stokes. We are very very lucky to have him and we will remember these gilded years

    God bless the jury that (somehow) found him not guilty of affray.
  • Well I cannot believe when I mentioned Fenwicks to Mrs BJ


    She had not only heard of them but said


    I once went for a bra fitting in York at Fenwicks



    29.5 years married and now I find this
    out

    Thanks PB

    29.5 B is an unusual fitting but so be it
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Regarding Seville versus Britain’s shabby cities.

    It is this sort of question which I’ve obsessed over since I first arrived in the UK.

    My first “proper” job took me around the country and I was astonished at the squalor of major British towns and cities compared with what I saw on my various holidays to Europe.

    After looking at this for over twenty years, the simplest answer is that British local government is pretty much the weakest in the OECD, and therefore there are frankly no bodies with the money or will to invest in local infrastructure.

    The sole exception to this is of course London, which is pumped with money from TfL and various nominally central government bodies.

    As Labour note in their report (and let’s not pretend they are not as guilty as anyone), to the extent anyone has money it’s Treasury, and they’ve been institutionally biased against investment in cities outside London because their business models need existing success to justify new funding.

    This dire situation has been going on since at least the early 20th century. A vicious cycle of underinvestment has led to ever decreasing levels of money.

    I think this is a big part of it. Also, much of the UK's cities have been ruined by brutalist architecture. If the neighborhood looks dark and grim anyway, people don't want to look after it. Ex-Soviet cities are similarly grim.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,335

    Regarding Seville versus Britain’s shabby cities.

    It is this sort of question which I’ve obsessed over since I first arrived in the UK.

    My first “proper” job took me around the country and I was astonished at the squalor of major British towns and cities compared with what I saw on my various holidays to Europe.

    After looking at this for over twenty years, the simplest answer is that British local government is pretty much the weakest in the OECD, and therefore there are frankly no bodies with the money or will to invest in local infrastructure.

    The sole exception to this is of course London, which is pumped with money from TfL and various nominally central government bodies.

    As Labour note in their report (and let’s not pretend they are not as guilty as anyone), to the extent anyone has money it’s Treasury, and they’ve been institutionally biased against investment in cities outside London because their business models need existing success to justify new funding.

    This dire situation has been going on since at least the early 20th century. A vicious cycle of underinvestment has led to ever decreasing levels of money.

    I was the PB-er who introduced Seville as an example of successful urbanism, I believe?

    And it is a wonderful city, spellbinding and gracious, with great food and magnificent architecture, and superbly re-urbanised in the last two decades

    However on my last day there I got to see the endless suburbs, Not so good at all. Stalinist housing blocks for mile after mile. All the people having a great time in the Old City come back to a mild sunny dystopia

    This is true of many continental European cities which look and feel nicer than British cities in the middle (and they are nicer and lovelier - in the middle). Often the places where the people actually live are not so good at all. Cf les banlieues

    Britain, as ever, is halfway between the US and the EU. In the US the downtowns are often a disaster, whereas the suburbs are beautiful and opulent; the opposite is true in the EU
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,450
    edited December 2022

    Can anyone explain why University Challenge is still shielding the contestants from each other?

    Dunno (although when was the series recorded?) but Ho Chi Minh's stint as a London chef, as mentioned by Ghedebrav on this thread, was one of the questions last night.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    I was the PB-er who introduced Seville as an example of successful urbanism, I believe?

    And it is a wonderful city, spellbinding and gracious, with great food and magnificent architecture, and superbly re-urbanised in the last two decades

    However on my last day there I got to see the endless suburbs, Not so good at all. Stalinist housing blocks for mile after mile. All the people having a great time in the Old City come back to a mild sunny dystopia

    This is true of many continental European cities which look and feel nicer than British cities in the middle (and they are nicer and lovelier - in the middle). Often the places where the people actually live are not so good at all. Cf les banlieues

    Britain, as ever, is halfway between the US and the EU. In the US the downtowns are often a disaster, whereas the suburbs are beautiful and opulent; the opposite is true in the EU
    The centre of American cities are increasingly regenerated. It's the public housing areas just outside the real downtown that is grim. And this is only true for northern cities. The fast growing places like Denver, Austin, Orlando, Charlotte etc are all pretty nice. It's the rural areas that are dumps in the South.
  • Foxy said:

    Leicester used to have a marvellous rabbit warren of a toy shop called Dominoes. Airfix kits, board games, a vast train set department and great arts and crafts dept as well as the more usual stuff. I found Hamleys a bit disappointing after knowing Dominoes.

    where was that? by the cathedral area?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,335
    WillG said:

    The centre of American cities are increasingly regenerated. It's the public housing areas just outside the real downtown that is grim. And this is only true for northern cities. The fast growing places like Denver, Austin, Orlando, Charlotte etc are all pretty nice. It's the rural areas that are dumps in the South.
    This, I am afraid, is not my recent experience of post-Covid America

    Have you been?

    A lot of cities have been terrible hollowed out by Covid, and workers are not returning. Crime is surging. Homelessness and addiction are endemic. So those downtowns that were reviving in 2019 are now often in reverse, and those that were struggling are now fucked

    I was in Denver six weeks ago. The downtown is bleak and deserted, but sunny
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,335
    I fear I'm right

    "Holiday season hits downtown as Denver struggles to control crime, boost safety


    "I feel like if we all avoid downtown too much, then it's, you know, things are just gonna kind of perpetuate that," said Dan Gravee.

    Denver Mayor Michael Hancock admits that downtown Denver has its share of problems. The proof is in vacant buildings and fewer guests and visitors.


    "There's no way to sugarcoat it... downtown has really been impacted by the pandemic," said Hancock."


    https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/holiday-season-downtown-denver-crime-safety/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,212
    Leon said:

    This, I am afraid, is not my recent experience of post-Covid America

    Have you been?

    A lot of cities have been terrible hollowed out by Covid, and workers are not returning. Crime is surging. Homelessness and addiction are endemic. So those downtowns that were reviving in 2019 are now often in reverse, and those that were struggling are now fucked

    I was in Denver six weeks ago. The downtown is bleak and deserted, but sunny
    I am coming up to a year in Manhattan, so I have seen it and lived it in all seasons.

    New Yorkers believe that crime and homelessness are up. The subway is a squalid hellhole. The overall ambience is better than it was when I arrived, but it is not quite yet “back”.

    To the extent that young people don’t think London is cool anymore, it is not New York they are looking to either.

    Bizarrely, I am hearing good things about Paris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,335

    I am coming up to a year in Manhattan, so I have seen it and lived it in all seasons.

    New Yorkers believe that crime and homelessness are up. The subway is a squalid hellhole. The overall ambience is better than it was when I arrived, but it is not quite yet “back”.

    To the extent that young people don’t think London is cool anymore, it is not New York they are looking to either.

    Bizarrely, I am hearing good things about Paris.
    Paris has really grim problems with crime and migrants, tho it is undoubtedly benefiting from the relative decline of London, LA and NYC - but it is relative

    I don't believe any city in the West is absolutely doing well. That time has passed, for now. We are like the late Roman Empire in the 4th century AD, when everyone rich decamped to their villas in the exurbs
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,081
    A bizarre subplot in the Twitter saga concerning the lawyer Jim Baker who's just been fired by Elon Musk:

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/06/elon-musk-fires-twitter-lawyer-james-baker-over-hunter-biden/

    @elonmusk
    In light of concerns about Baker’s possible role in suppression of information important to the public dialogue, he was exited from Twitter today


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1600237095364096000
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    1 minute to Georgia polls closing...
  • If it’s so east to achieve growth, pls send your ideas to Rishi.

    However you cut the data - the economy has toileted under the Tories, and so has education, health and public service performance.
    What have the Conservatives actually achieved in office this time, what are they actually for now?

    There’s Nothing. Except achieved Brexit, must defend Brexit.

    No growth, no plan for the future, no consistent Conservative position on any policy area, from economy, environment to crime, liberalism to authoritarianism. No story to tell, no record to defend, with their MPs wandering the Lobby wondering what the point is.

    There’s a strong argument Brexit and Boris may have killed the Tory’s for good. Not just a temporary switching from the the old brand that served em well for a century - but being party of Brexit and the party of business and growth at same time, is utterly impossible going forward.

    Vote Tory because… What have I missed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722

    1 minute to Georgia polls closing...

    Everyone come back in a week for the result to be finalised.
  • I am coming up to a year in Manhattan, so I have seen it and lived it in all seasons.

    New Yorkers believe that crime and homelessness are up. The subway is a squalid hellhole. The overall ambience is better than it was when I arrived, but it is not quite yet “back”.

    To the extent that young people don’t think London is cool anymore, it is not New York they are looking to either.

    Bizarrely, I am hearing good things about Paris.
    Admittedly that was not my experience as a tourist on Manhattan. Bars were crowded with young folks, the subway was a bit worn but was generally clean and orderly. The thing that really stood out to me was the number of people on the streets appearing to be having full blown mental health crises. There seemed, to me, to be quite a lot of that. I have to emphasise that I was a tourist, but I really loved the city. I should probably also emphasise that, in my early 30s, I'm also not young anymore.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    Warnock in to 1.01 on Betfair.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    Paris has really grim problems with crime and migrants, tho it is undoubtedly benefiting from the relative decline of London, LA and NYC - but it is relative

    I don't believe any city in the West is absolutely doing well. That time has passed, for now. We are like the late Roman Empire in the 4th century AD, when everyone rich decamped to their villas in the exurbs
    Are you not seeing a collapse into wanton debauchery yet?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    Any news from Georgia — exit polls, etc?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    edited December 2022

    Warnock in to 1.01 on Betfair.

    He's doing better than last time in the counties that have released the early votes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    Currently 60/40 to Democrat with just over 500,000 early votes counted. Very early days though
  • JohnSoap said:

    What have the Conservatives actually achieved in office this time, what are they actually for now?

    There’s Nothing. Except achieved Brexit, must defend Brexit.

    No growth, no plan for the future, no consistent Conservative position on any policy area, from economy, environment to crime, liberalism to authoritarianism. No story to tell, no record to defend, with their MPs wandering the Lobby wondering what the point is.

    There’s a strong argument Brexit and Boris may have killed the Tory’s for good. Not just a temporary switching from the the old brand that served em well for a century - but being party of Brexit and the party of business and growth at same time, is utterly impossible going forward.

    Vote Tory because… What have I missed?
    But that is always the way. People will vote Labour into power because they are not the Tories. Then in 5 or, more likely, 10 year's time they will vote the Tories back into power because they are not Labour. It has always been the way and always will be. What the Tory party will be like in 5 or 10 year's time I have no idea. Just as we had no idea what Labour would look like now when Cameron became PM in 2010. But (sadly IMO) each party - or something very much like them - will still be here in a decade or so and we will be talking about how Labour have failed to achieve much in their second term and are looking tired and unfit for Government.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664

    A bizarre subplot in the Twitter saga concerning the lawyer Jim Baker who's just been fired by Elon Musk:

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/06/elon-musk-fires-twitter-lawyer-james-baker-over-hunter-biden/

    @elonmusk
    In light of concerns about Baker’s possible role in suppression of information important to the public dialogue, he was exited from Twitter today


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1600237095364096000

    The NYPost article is an interesting one, not least because it has moved from "there was a deliberate conspiracy to suppress something harmful to Biden" to

    "Baker’s exit from the social media giant comes after independent journalist Matt Taibbi revealed internal documents showing Baker and other top Twitter execs deliberating over what to do about The Post’s October 2020 story on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop and his alleged influence peddling schemes. "


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    Barnesian said:

    He's doing better than last time in the counties that have released the early votes.
    Is he doing better in the early votes than the early votes last time?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    Meanwhile, Azerbaijan advertising its "tranquility" on CNN in a tourism ad. Hmm.
  • But that is always the way. People will vote Labour into power because they are not the Tories. Then in 5 or, more likely, 10 year's time they will vote the Tories back into power because they are not Labour. It has always been the way and always will be. What the Tory party will be like in 5 or 10 year's time I have no idea. Just as we had no idea what Labour would look like now when Cameron became PM in 2010. But (sadly IMO) each party - or something very much like them - will still be here in a decade or so and we will be talking about how Labour have failed to achieve much in their second term and are looking tired and unfit for Government.
    I’m saying if Tories continue to back Brexit they don’t come back ever, unless they make Brexit brand a success, as anti growth and anti business is incompatible with their old successful brand. Which you could rely on them for.
    Fair enough if you don’t see it like that. But Christ! How do you get up to 27000 posts?

    I lurk a lot of sites, but I never comment. Don’t know how often I’ll post, I’m busy trawling round the web. As I’m here now, it’s working, can I offer congrats to Putin and Truss for entering themselves in the history books, as two of the biggest losers of all time.
    And come on England, I believe our time has come at last! Don’t you?
    Earwig ho! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

    PS Although I’m from Eltham and still live on Court Road, I ain’t no Alf Garnett type. But though the japs are well drilled, as a race just too short for football ain’t they?

    If I was Japan coach, I’d have played Java in the middle and Krakatoa to the West of him.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084

    Is he doing better in the early votes than the early votes last time?
    Yes CNN seem to think so.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    JohnSoap said:



    I’m saying if Tories continue to back Brexit they don’t come back ever, unless they make Brexit brand a success, as anti growth and anti business is incompatible with their old successful brand. Which you could rely on them for.
    Fair enough if you don’t see it like that. But Christ! How do you get up to 27000 posts?

    I lurk a lot of sites, but I never comment. Don’t know how often I’ll post, I’m busy trawling round the web. As I’m here now, it’s working, can I offer congrats to Putin and Truss for entering themselves in the history books, as two of the biggest losers of all time.
    And come on England, I believe our time has come at last! Don’t you?
    Earwig ho! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

    PS Although I’m from Eltham and still live on Court Road, I ain’t no Alf Garnett type. But though the japs are well drilled, as a race just too short for football ain’t they?

    If I was Japan coach, I’d have played Java in the middle and Krakatoa to the West of him.

    Welcome aboard, John!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    Barnesian said:

    Currently 60/40 to Democrat with just over 500,000 early votes counted. Very early days though

    With 1.2m declared (nearly 40% I think) it's still 60/40
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited December 2022
    Posting stuff generated by ChatGPT has been banned at Stack Exchange. There is delicious irony in that being the site where so many saddo programmer types hang out. A case of "Did one of us do this or did one of our contraptions do it? Better ban ourselves from using our contraptions."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    Barnesian said:

    With 1.2m declared (nearly 40% I think) it's still 60/40
    Down to 55/45 now, based almost entirely (97%) on early votes.
  • Welcome aboard, John!
    Cheers. Weird like, going from one dimensions to three. I’ve already had replies.

    And as I can post, on behalf of politics lurkers can I say big thank you for clearing a lot of dead wood from the site recently. Drama queen Horse Battery, “nasty Nick” Ismael, that rabbiting Moon Rabbit. Too many pointless posts, too many pointless pictures posted here were just ruining the place.

    Obviously still a few pointless posters and their look at me posts and pictures to weed out, but this sites getting more on topic so better to pop in and read and out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664

    Down to 55/45 now, based almost entirely (97%) on early votes.
    56/41 - 33% in

    That doesn't look that great for Warnock to me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    DJ41 said:

    Posting stuff generated by ChatGPT has been banned at Stack Exchange. There is delicious irony in that being the site where so many saddo programmer types hang out. A case of "Did one of us do this or did one of our contraptions do it? Better ban ourselves from using our contraptions."

    It's been banned because it produces too many wrong answers. But it's written in a very plausible way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    NYTimes has opined: toss up but slightly leaning Warnock's way.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    rcs1000 said:

    56/41 - 33% in

    That doesn't look that great for Warnock to me.
    Yes...I've risked a whole pound to lay Warnock (I'll win £51 if that comes off...).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    38% in. 56-44.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664

    Yes...I've risked a whole pound to lay Warnock (I'll win £51 if that comes off...).
    Well, I hope you're wrong. But that looks like a very sensible bet to me. Probably won't pay off, but the real probability is way better than 20-1.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited December 2022
    JohnSoap said:

    What have the Conservatives actually achieved in office this time, what are they actually for now?

    There’s Nothing. Except achieved Brexit, must defend Brexit.

    No growth, no plan for the future, no consistent Conservative position on any policy area, from economy, environment to crime, liberalism to authoritarianism. No story to tell, no record to defend, with their MPs wandering the Lobby wondering what the point is.

    There’s a strong argument Brexit and Boris may have killed the Tory’s for good. Not just a temporary switching from the the old brand that served em well for a century - but being party of Brexit and the party of business and growth at same time, is utterly impossible going forward.

    Vote Tory because… What have I missed?
    The Tories have b*llsed the country further up, shoved it further down the plughole - that's what they've achieved.

    What are they actually for now? Obedience, mostly. False hope among the naive. Greed. "F*** you, I'm all right Jack". Caste. The army. The monarchy. A bit of bureaucratic "let's turn things around" hockeysticks bullsh*t chickenfeed for the administrative middle classes. Does it matter? There's not an election on.

    What will they be for in the next election? You seem to think they'll fight it mostly on Brexit but they won't. Bre-what? They will strive to continue to be seen as tougher on immigration than Labour and tougher than all the smaller parties that Labour would supposedly imperil the country by possibly entering into a woky, rainbowy, allow-the-foreigners-to-take-over coalition with - that's what they will do.

    Facts about immigration or reasonable arguments about what happens when this or that lever is pulled or not pulled are mostly beside the point. An election isn't a debate.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, I hope you're wrong. But that looks like a very sensible bet to me. Probably won't pay off, but the real probability is way better than 20-1.
    Mm, was 50-1. It's now come in to 30-1. Gulp.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,889
    edited December 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    The NYPost article is an interesting one, not least because it has moved from "there was a deliberate conspiracy to suppress something harmful to Biden" to

    "Baker’s exit from the social media giant comes after independent journalist Matt Taibbi revealed internal documents showing Baker and other top Twitter execs deliberating over what to do about The Post’s October 2020 story on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop and his alleged influence peddling schemes. "


    The allegation is that Baker, still employed, was in charge of sending the documents to Taibbi, and he censored them (some of the emails involved him):

    https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1600243405841666048
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,379

    A bizarre subplot in the Twitter saga concerning the lawyer Jim Baker who's just been fired by Elon Musk:

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/06/elon-musk-fires-twitter-lawyer-james-baker-over-hunter-biden/

    @elonmusk
    In light of concerns about Baker’s possible role in suppression of information important to the public dialogue, he was exited from Twitter today


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1600237095364096000

    Imagine being in a Martian colony run by this fuckpiece.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    rcs1000 said:

    NYTimes has opined: toss up but slightly leaning Warnock's way.

    26/1 on Betfair seems very generous in those circumstances.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    48% in. 53.5-43.5.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    NYTimes has moved it to Leaning Dem, and forecasting a 1.8% margin.

    But we'll see.
  • 48% in. 53.5-43.5.

    In a two horse race shouldn’t it add up to 100 Nick?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    50% in. Now 53-47. Still 25-1 available.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    rcs1000 said:

    NYTimes has moved it to Leaning Dem, and forecasting a 1.8% margin.

    But we'll see.

    They reckon he has a 71% chance of winning, which makes the 20-1 you can get on Walker EXTREMELY generous.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    Atlanta will probably see Warnock home in the end.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    But now out to 50-1!
  • JohnSoap said:

    Cheers. Weird like, going from one dimensions to three. I’ve already had replies.

    And as I can post, on behalf of politics lurkers can I say big thank you for clearing a lot of dead wood from the site recently. Drama queen Horse Battery, “nasty Nick” Ismael, that rabbiting Moon Rabbit. Too many pointless posts, too many pointless pictures posted here were just ruining the place.

    Obviously still a few pointless posters and their look at me posts and pictures to weed out, but this sites getting more on topic so better to pop in and read and out.
    I’m not here for likes, but it’s nice to get em

    As this a proper grown up site all these recent pile-ons and bans been long overdue - one endlessly ramping polls as though Tory’s storming back to popularity when every other pollster bar the Observer one got them falling back for God’s sake? Yeah sure we can just ignore the bots the best we can, but the risible rabbit one was doing that on a proper betting site, evermore shrill like the CONHQ bot but without ever one intelligent post. Should’ve been banned long ago.

    What is very funny though, I read all the political sites for shit and giggles and think I found her repeating same crap to ingratiate herself on Conservatives home, and it’s just not going down well there either
    “hey! What’s with all the dislikes”


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    51.9-48.1

    Warnock 99-1 on Betfair.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    edited December 2022
    52-48 with I'd think nearly all the early votes in. But you can get 100-1 on Walker. People must be calculating that the Republicans voted more than last time in early voting.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    You can get 100/1 on Walker.
    I've taken some as insurance so I can go to sleep!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Only 5% counted in DeKalb.

    Warnock won it 251k to 42k in November.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664

    52-48 with I'd think nearly all the early votes in. But you can get 100-1 on Walker. People must be calculating that the Republicans voted more than last time in early voting.

    Pretty much all the counties that have completed counting are showing small moves to Warnock, which is presumably behind the current odds.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687
    Walker now 0.8% ahead, with 58% counted. Walker price down to 30-1.

    I need to get to bed - if Walker wins, I win £364, uif he loses, I lose £5. Good enough.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,289
    According to the Washington Post's model (about which I know nothing) "Warnock is behind in the vote count, but favored to win after all votes are counted. Walker still has a slight chance."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,687

    According to the Washington Post's model (about which I know nothing) "Warnock is behind in the vote count, but favored to win after all votes are counted. Walker still has a slight chance."

    Yes, that mass ovtes still to count in urban areas should carry it for Warnock - but I think 50-1 overstates it.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,289
    Warnock is now leading: 1,243,003 to 1,216,310 (50.5%-49.5%)
    67.7 percent of votes counted.
    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2022/georgia-senate-runoff/
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Is it true more regular posters have been banned?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,404
    WillG said:

    Is it true more regular posters have been banned?

    Not as far as I can tell.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    WillG said:

    Is it true more regular posters have been banned?

    Many people get banned, but it's usually just for 24 or 48 hour periods. Long term bans are incredibly rare.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    Many people get banned, but it's usually just for 24 or 48 hour periods. Long term bans are incredibly rare.
    Got it. That's good news. Thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    Someone by the name of Rod Crosby was banned permanently a few years back. He'd actually produced a lot of interesting threads on voting systems for the site before that.
  • Has Trump personally been indicted for anything, or any indictments likely soon?
    Am willing to bet, that the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo ends up indicted for violation of federal laws pertaining to what you Brits call Official Secrets.

    This is a charge that he is clearly rotten-ripe for being charged. AND one that he cannot slip easily, seeing as how even a kindergartener can understand the crime(s) he's committed in this realm.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    Dave Wasserman isn't usually wrong.
  • MikeL said:

    Only 5% counted in DeKalb.

    Warnock won it 251k to 42k in November.

    That number testifies to Hershel Walker's truly pathetic showing with Black voters. Who were the key strategic target behind Trump & his fellow Putinist recruiting HW for the Republican nomination in the first place.

    Hershel Walker and his puppeteers have manged to transform - or rather trash - his image & record as a great Georgia sports icon, into a freaking freak show and standing embarrassment to his state, his party, his race - and himself.
  • Am willing to bet, that the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo ends up indicted for violation of federal laws pertaining to what you Brits call Official Secrets.

    This is a charge that he is clearly rotten-ripe for being charged. AND one that he cannot slip easily, seeing as how even a kindergartener can understand the crime(s) he's committed in this realm.
    Assuming he gets indicted for the document theft, what happens next? Presumably he can stall a trial for a year or two?
  • Yet another kick in the head for the GOP, courtesy of their Fearless Leader, Secret POTUS, with able assist from SCOTUS.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,664
    WillG said:

    Got it. That's good news. Thanks.
    The exception is Russian trolls (excepting @DJ41) who we'll kick off permanently.

    *But* if you're a real human being, who doesn't libel people*, then your chances of being permabanned are incredibly small.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    CNN PROJECTS WARNOCK WINS!
  • AP just called GA US Senate runoff for Warnock.
  • Assuming he gets indicted for the document theft, what happens next? Presumably he can stall a trial for a year or two?
    Joe McCarthy 1952 - Throw the security risks out of the White House!

    Donald Trump 2024 - Send a security risk to the White House!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,679
    Close but no cigar for Walker.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Meanwhile, Azerbaijan advertising its "tranquility" on CNN in a tourism ad. Hmm.

    I was planning to go there to watch the ‘tranquility’ of the F1 race, on which they’ve spent millions to host!
  • At the moment, NYT via AP says Warnock 50.6% versus Walker 49.4%

    Which rounds to 51% v 49%

    Given that counties with largest stashes of as-yet-uncounted votes are DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb & Gwimmett, reckon that Sen. Warnock will reach 51% without much if any rounding when all the votes are counted.
This discussion has been closed.