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Today the US MidTerms – the final final chapter – politicalbetting.com
Today the US MidTerms – the final final chapter – politicalbetting.com
If you thought that the US mid-term elections were all done and dusted 4 weeks ago on November 8th then the fact that there is voting today in the state of Georgia might come as a surprise.
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Even if the Republicans did win it it would just mean at most the Democrats in the Senate would have to occasionally work with Mitt Romney or Susan Collins if say Manchin decided to vote against one of their bills
"We got two final polls the day before Election Day giving the edge to Warnock, who outpaced Walker 49-48 last month, but there are caveats about both. YouGov, working on behalf of UMass Lowell, showed the senator up 51-46, while the GOP firm InsiderAdvantage’s survey for Fox 5 gave him a smaller 51-48 edge. Recent media polls from SurveyUSA and SRSS had Warnock leading 50-47 and 52-48, respectively."
The seat may be more relevant after future elections though.
Hope they've confiscated her passport.
Given the age of the Senate, a death during the term is entirely possible, for example.
And it lowers the hurdle for the Democrats to retain control in 2024.
But you're right that it lowers the incentive for Republicans to turn out to vote for a manifestly unqualified candidate.
Then ponder how important that extra seat might be for the Dems.
In Presidential election years the Congress results largely follow the Presidential ones anyway in terms of winning party, unlike midterms which tend to be protests against the incumbent President in terms of swing
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/millennials-turning-backs-traditional-boozy-breaks/
Also, with regard to your last paragraph while that's true of the House I would say it's much less true of the Senate. In particular, I would be amazed if Montana voted for another Democrat while Wisconsin is no gimme, regardless of the presidential vote.
And Gordon Brown wants to give Scotland more say inside the Union. Fine, but can we have a mechanism for WENI as a bloc to go independent.
"Not appreciating my puns when I was alive was a grave mistake."
The Devil went down to Georgia....
It's true there's a fine working class tradition of punchups at funerals, but not of open displays of contempt for the deceased. The way to do that is not to attend.
(A superstar, but he didn't get far)
But he sure found out the hard way
That dreams don't always come true (dreams don't always come true)
Oh no (uh-uh, no, uh-uh)
1. If the Dems win they will have a majority on Senate committees, speeding up business.
2. They will be able to lose a seat in 2 years' time (when they have 3 seats in normally red states to defend) without losing control.
3.They won't have to depend on Joe Manchin's support for every vote.
It would also be a useful poke in the eye for Trump if Walker loses when Republicans won every other state-wide election in Georgia.
It is likely that the RFU will have to offer Leicester well in excess of £200,000 to buy Borthwick out of his contract with the Premiership champions, meaning that the cost of sacking Jones will exceed £1 million.
Hasn't Borthwick been part of the setup for years leading to 2019 world cup as forward coach?
Edit - Christ he was also part of Eddie Jones setup with Japan. Sounds like they have gone for mini-Eddie.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2022/dec/05/phil-foden-england-senegal-world-cup-qatar
They aren't getting much past the GOP house for the next two years anyway.
There are clips on the internet of him playing for Man City academy at 13-14, he plays exactly like he does now. At that age so many of the future superstars, its all the about the skills, the clips of them beating 6-7 players to score worldie goals...Foden in the clips, he is ruthlessly efficient, beats a man, visionary pass out to a free man in space etc. Its man against boys not in a physical sense, but a footballing intelligence sense.
The ones flagged as vulnerable next time are Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Pennsylvania and Arizona. West Virginia is of course Manchin so I would assume he is likely to hold if he runs again, but whether that helps the blue caucus is another question. Montana I think will go. I have to say I would be surprised if Sherrod Brown lost the Ohio seat, although his best chance is if Ohio goes Republican for the Presidency and votes for a split ticket. Wisconsin is very tight however you look at it, as is Nevada. Keep an eye on Vermont too, where if he lives that long Bernie Sanders will be 83 and may retire at the next election. Who would win that is anybody's guess. The Dems should surely be favourites but if there was another radical left independent who split the vote...
About the only faint chance of a Dem pickup is if something dramatic happens in Texas. If Trump and Ted Cruz have another of their spats I suppose it might split the Republican vote and let a Dem in, but I wouldn't be putting money on it.
So holding Georgia is really quite important to them.
Albeit, even that is possibly not as important as keeping a certifiable fucktard like Walker away from the Senate.
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1600130637930803201
Bedfordshire Police said a man in his 20s was detained and is in custody.
The last time the Tories had a poll lead was Redfield & Wilton, exactly a year ago today!
What happened with Patrick Thelwell in York? Last I heard, he was on bail. If he'd been tried the verdict would have been reported, surely? (He said that if he was brought to court he'd plead not guilty.) Was the case dropped? Do you know something the rest of us don't? :-)
As for the offence of common assault,
1. There has to be fear or "apprehension" on the part of the alleged victim that they were about to suffer an act of violence, so how can there be a fair trial if the alleged victim won't come to the stand and submit to cross-examination about what was in his mind? A fortiori when he was protected by armed security at the time of the incident. "There may well not have been apprehension to the level required for a guilty verdict" would be one way to run the defence case.
2. Is it possible to "commonly assault" a king?
The guy who has his crest behind the judges and magistrates isn't supposed to be so unpopular. Trouble looms.
Throw a Faberge egg: posh assault.
Throw an ostrich egg at a Tory and it's not assault, it's a character statement.
Prosecuting counsel: "Did you throw an egg intending that it land on the person of His Majesty?"
Defendant: "Well, let's just say that unlike Mr Mountbatten I don't possess the stolen Koh-i-Noor diamond, so I couldn't have thrown that at him even if I'd wanted to."
https://ph.churchofjesuschrist.org/polygamy-mormons-plural-marriage#:~:text=Do Mormons believe in polygamy,God to issue a declaration.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/student-accused-throwing-eggs-king-28457424
The King is the King, he may not be as popular as his mother but the law still needs to be enforced to protect the Monarch, for starters as the next anarchist republican may not be carrying an egg but a gun
That being said... you are absolutely right that 2024 will be an uphill battle for the Dems: I'd probably want at least 8-1 on them holding the Senate.
I would expect it to be a loser (the right odds are probably 6 or 7-1), but I'd chuck £5 on Walker at these odds.
Face in a frown
Never a sound
With Burford Browns
(sorry, not really a yolking matter)
Morocco 6.2
Draw 2.72
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/fifa-world-cup/morocco-v-spain-betting-31945366
https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,snp-leadership-contest-who-are-the-candidates-for-westminster-roles
Technically of course the PM does not need Parliamentary sovereignty to go to war at all, he or she has executive privilege on behalf of the Crown. He might ask Parliament to give it greater validity but he certainly has no obligation to ask for it and certainly not devolved Parliaments either
Note that there are number of recounts for various offices, either still ongoing or yet to commence, across USA from sea to shining sea.
For example - and for comic relief - in WA 3rd Congressional, Putinist loser Joe Kent has requested a machine recount, which won't happen until the WA Secretary of State certifies the election later this week.
Basically just more grifting by a MAGA-maniac grifter, emulating his role model the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo. BUT meaning that the Georgia runnoff - which itself will not be certified today obviously - is NOT the "Final Final Chapter" for the 2022 US midterm elections.
"jailed"?
There is this thing called fair trial. And there is also this thing called contempt of court. Are you alleging that this gent is a repeat offender and are you trying to bring this to public attention?
There should be some perks to being a King.
The one that stands out for me is the idea of sending representatives of Scotland to international bodies. No. Don't do this. The aim of refreshing the Union is a good one, but the method is wrong. In pragmatic terms this won't win votes from the SNP. The SNP will respond by saying that if Scotland is good enough to be allowed by its English Westminster masters to have representatives on international bodies, then how much better they would be able to represent Scotland on those bodies if it were an independent country. Also why TF shouldn't England be allowed representatives on international bodies if Scotland has got some? Oh they would? Well what's the point of having the Union then? That's not the kind of debate that Unionists in their right minds should seek to trigger.
To refresh the Union you need a big idea, not a bowlful of fudge.
They are now letting him simmer in a cell, before seeing if he cracks under interrogation.
Or perhaps they could try and recruit him into the force - poacher turned gamekeeper.
Was it his own idea, or was he egged on by someone else?
On the swan.