It’s a mistake to think of the election as just LAB vs CON – politicalbetting.com

System · December 2022

It’s a mistake to think of the election as just LAB vs CON – politicalbetting.com

So much of the current electoral analysis is based on the premise that battle will just be LAB vs CON.

HYUFD · December 2022

No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland

Andy_JS · December 2022

The governing party in New Zealand is averaging about 33% in the opinion polls. They won 50% at the last election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

ClippP · December 2022

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland

Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.

kjh · December 2022

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.

I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.

felix · December 2022

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.

He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.

Sandpit · December 2022

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.

Not only are they all scared of doing things that might make a real difference, they have a very recent example of what happens when someone dares to try and upset the Establishment apple cart.

felix · December 2022

Sandpit said:

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.
Not only are they all scared of doing things that might make a real difference, they have a very recent example of what happens when someone dares to try and upset the Establishment apple cart.

Indeed. The 24 hourse news cycle and 'gothcha' journalism plagues British public life and politicians are yet to find an effective defence. Sadly the behaviour of many of them does make it at times too easy for the media and ruins it for the majority of sensible ones. However, the level of hyperbole over the current cost of living issues have reached absurd levels of idiocy. Virtually any measures on any topic are now greeted with howls of anguish that 'people are literally going to die' is tedious in the extreme. The plain facts are that the UK along with much of the rest of the world are now having to pay for the costs of Clovid and the war with Ukraine compared to which the Truss episode is really very minor. Who knew that a 2 year health holiday was going to come with an enormous price tag? Well just about anyone with half a brain.

Nigelb · December 2022

For TSE.
My Hans Gruber #adventcalendar2022 has arrive. Die Hard is a #christmas movie.
https://twitter.com/emdc11111/status/1599921283470610432

IanB2 · December 2022

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.

He hasn’t got where he is today by providing evidence, that’s for sure.

Other than often dodgy interpretations of polling subsamples, obvs.

Nigelb · December 2022

Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753

rcs1000 · December 2022

Sandpit said:

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.
Not only are they all scared of doing things that might make a real difference, they have a very recent example of what happens when someone dares to try and upset the Establishment apple cart.

Upsetting the establishment apple cart by proposing Keynesianism borrow and spend policies?

It was the bond markets, which feared inflation, what did for Truss and Kwarteng.

IanB2 · December 2022

Mike is both right and wrong. Yes, tactical voting will be important and SNP and LD gains from the Tories will help take them down.

But right now they looked doomed, and unable to do anything bold because of deep divisions and a lot of personal animosity within their own ranks. They’re a zombie government waiting to be ejected, and the big question remains whether the swing is big enough to produce another 1997 - in which case LD gains will be as irrelevant as they were then (except that, for them, it puts the LDs back in the game for subsequent elections) - or whether somehow it falls short and we find ourselves in a 2010 or 1992.

So far the only thing that can really help the Tories - since they are clearly unable to help themselves - is a miraculous end to the economic troubles with a resolution in Ukraine and a rapid diminution of global inflation. That’s not impossible, but no more likely than that somehow everything continues to get worse.

Nigelb · December 2022

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.
Not only are they all scared of doing things that might make a real difference, they have a very recent example of what happens when someone dares to try and upset the Establishment apple cart.
Upsetting the establishment apple cart by proposing Keynesianism borrow and spend policies?

It was the bond markets, which feared inflation, what did for Truss and Kwarteng.

That was about Truss ?
‘Upsetting the establishment’ is a very generous and not altogether comprehensive description of what was terminal incompetence.

IanB2 · December 2022

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.
Not only are they all scared of doing things that might make a real difference, they have a very recent example of what happens when someone dares to try and upset the Establishment apple cart.
Upsetting the establishment apple cart by proposing Keynesianism borrow and spend policies?

It was the bond markets, which feared inflation, what did for Truss and Kwarteng.
That was about Truss ?
‘Upsetting the establishment’ is a very generous and not altogether comprehensive description of what was terminal incompetence.

The recent Nick Robinson programme on BBC sounds is worth a listen for an overview of her brief period in office, informed by interviews with some of those involved.

JosiasJessop · December 2022

When will Russia ban smoking? Another airbase fire:

https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1599998187011420160

Foxy · December 2022

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753

His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Cyclefree · December 2022

Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?

logical_song · December 2022

Could Desantis face a challenge from Cheney in 2024?

"A Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters found DeSantis with a decisive lead in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, at 24.2 percent, followed by Cheney with 16.4 percent. Trump came in third place with 14.6 percent, nearly 2 points below Cheney"

eristdoof · December 2022

felix said:

kjh said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
I agree. HYUFD might be right, but he hasn't provided any evidence for that assumption.
He hasn't but I'm not sure that local by-elections generally are a good guide to a GE where organisation is required on a very wide range of seats, and local issues tend to have less potency.
The British public are clearly in the mood for change although I'm not sure H/L reform is the burning issue which is at the forefront of their minds right now.
As I said yesterday Labour's big advantage is that they are not the Tories. Their danger is that that is pretty much all they've got and the same applies to the LDs. No party has any killer solutions to the current issues because quite simply there really aren't any and they're all shit scared of of tackling any of the many 'sacred cows' which might have some impact.

Anthony Wells used to write in his blogs that there is a whole host of reasons why a by-election result can give extreme results in both directions, and that we should simply ignore by-election results when considereing the next GE. They are important but only for the effect it has on the Westminster/Media bubble.

Sandpit · December 2022

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?

Oh crap. I’m going to be in the UK for a couple of weeks over Christmas, and was hoping to avoid a very expensive car rental by taking the train - and staying drunk for a fortnight!

Sandpit · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:
When will Russia ban smoking? Another airbase fire:

https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1599998187011420160

What a shame, all these carelessly discarded cigarettes at Russian airbases.

Foxy · December 2022

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?

Yeah, it is going to be a pain. Fox jr2 is working until the 23rd, so hard to get back for Christmas. I expect the coaches will get booked up.

Nigelb · December 2022

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Curious that few of those convinced Biden has dementia question Trump's sanity.

Nigelb · December 2022

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?

Probably.
https://www.thetrainline.com/trains/great-britain/industrial-action

But it's scant consolation if your Christmas arrangements are disrupted.

Jonathan · December 2022

What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Dura_Ace · December 2022

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Not when they could have Ye. Ultimate banter heuristic.

Nigelb · December 2022

Are the there any non crooked politicians in Florida ?

Feds arrest ex-Florida Rep. David Rivera on charges connected to Venezuela
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/05/florida-david-rivera-venezuela-arrest-00072467

Casino_Royale · December 2022

On the bright side, with the train strikes, it means I don't have to go to any of those tedious office and client Christmas parties.

Jonathan · December 2022

Casino_Royale said:
On the bright side, with the train strikes, it means I don't have to go to any of those tedious office and client Christmas parties.

Four days of workshops and a Christmas party next week means having to stay in a hotel in town. Not sure how to get home on Friday. May have to park at Heathrow. Ho Ho Ho.

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

My eldest is coming up here by train on the morning of the 27th, so the strike ending in the early hours of that day is a problem. Though Very little runs during the strike period, so most trains / crews are parked up. May not be particularly disruptive.

As for the strike itself, keep it going. The rejected "offer" to remove all on-train staff bar the driver is not what the travelling public want. And closure of all ticket offices? A lot of people buy online. And a lot don't. Plus the removal of both station and on-train staff means no disabled travellers, which would almost certainly be illegal under UK law...

Nigelb · December 2022

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Not when they could have Ye. Ultimate banter heuristic.

The Republican establishment have completely gone off him, but remain terrified of criticising him directly. Just in case.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3762903-senate-gop-pans-trump-call-to-terminate-constitution/
...Senate GOP members had an array of responses to Trump’s suggestion but, in typical fashion, avoided criticizing the former president himself...

Foxy · December 2022

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?

According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

On topic, Labour and the Tories are not players in many seats. No matter how lauded Starmer is or how disliked the government is, there are a stack of seats that would go LibDem not Labour. And north of the wall the threat to fawning lickspittles like David Duguid is the SNP, not Labour.

Stuartinromford · December 2022

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.

CarlottaVance · December 2022

The fact that the UK lost just two cases in the course of a year should come as no surprise. As the government says, applications to the court against the UK “have been on a general downward trend over the last 10 years”:

By population, the UK has the fewest applications of all states at 3.1 per million. The number for all states combined is 52.8 per million.

https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/strasbourg-scorecard

LostPassword · December 2022

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

The secret that dare not speak its name is that inflation is government policy, to close the deficit by using inflation to increase taxes (by freezing the thresholds) and cut spending (by holding down public sector pay).

Maybe they would have saved a lot of grief with 6% pay offers, instead of 4%, and still seen inflation cut the bills, but I think the strikes are a result of pushing the inflation policy to its limit, rather than a policy objective themselves.

Nigelb · December 2022

logical_song said:
Could Desantis face a challenge from Cheney in 2024?

"A Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters found DeSantis with a decisive lead in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, at 24.2 percent, followed by Cheney with 16.4 percent. Trump came in third place with 14.6 percent, nearly 2 points below Cheney"

Interesting polling.

It's looking increasingly likely that Trump is done. While those like DeSantis, who have a real chance of beating him, seem to remain frightened of clearly declaring they are running, stalking horses are starting to break cover.

John Bolton ‘going to seriously consider’ challenging Trump
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3762824-john-bolton-going-to-seriously-consider-challenging-trump/

Sandpit · December 2022

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Not when they could have Ye. Ultimate banter heuristic.
The Republican establishment have completely gone off him, but remain terrified of criticising him directly. Just in case.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3762903-senate-gop-pans-trump-call-to-terminate-constitution/
...Senate GOP members had an array of responses to Trump’s suggestion but, in typical fashion, avoided criticizing the former president himself...

The GOP Establishment are scared of how the primary process will play out, as in 2016, which is why there’s little in the way of overt criticism of Trump.

Or perhaps they’re worried that taking out Trump, lets Kanye West stand as his replacement!

More seriously, they have to hope that Ron DeSantis can be persuaded to run in ‘24, and not hold back for another election cycle.

TOPPING · December 2022

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

5% this year, 4% next year is the offer.

HYUFD · December 2022

logical_song said:
Could Desantis face a challenge from Cheney in 2024?

"A Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters found DeSantis with a decisive lead in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, at 24.2 percent, followed by Cheney with 16.4 percent. Trump came in third place with 14.6 percent, nearly 2 points below Cheney"

That is Utah which dislikes Trump and is Romney country.

Nationwide amongst Republican voters Trump leads DeSantis 36% to 30%
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/who-republicans-want-as-2024-presidential-nominee

ydoethur · December 2022

Why 46? The Tories won 365 seats in 2019. 365-46 is 319. Even allowing for 7 Sinn Fein and Lindsay Hoyle remaining Speaker that doesn’t add up to a majority.

Or is that assuming they would have won more seats under the new boundaries?

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.

The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.

HYUFD · December 2022

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Average UK wages are only rising at 6%, only a little more than 4%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/

ydoethur · December 2022

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?
According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09

Given the strikes are meant to be partly about safety, that seems truly perverse.

ydoethur · December 2022

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Average UK wages are only rising at 6%, only a little more than 4%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/

That’s 50% more than 4%.

JosiasJessop · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.

"Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred "

That is an utterly ridiculous claim.

dixiedean · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.

There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.

HYUFD · December 2022

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.

Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?
According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09
Given the strikes are meant to be partly about safety, that seems truly perverse.

Most work over Christmas is renewal / upgrade work. None of it is emergency, so no risk to safety. It'll simply be postponed to a later date where it is more disruptive.

Then again, if you are a passenger on an operator like TransPennine Express or Avanti, "disruptive" is every day so what's the difference? Labour's problem is that "renationalise" is not a magic wand. The blame for almost all of this is the DfT, so handing full control over to them would not solve anything.

HYUFD · December 2022

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Average UK wages are only rising at 6%, only a little more than 4%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/
That’s 50% more than 4%.

Still below inflation at 9%.

Otherwise we will just get an inflationary wage spiral and push up inflation even more given no sign of an end to sanctions on Russia and the Ukraine war which has cut supplies and beeeln the biggest driver of inflation after furlough and the extra demand post lockdown

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
"Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred "

That is an utterly ridiculous claim.

Well the conditions are "Driver-Only Operation of all trains in all companies and on all passenger services" - so no guard on the train to manage a ramp for wheelchairs. And "closure of all ticket offices and displacement of retail staff" - so no staff at all at a lot of stations.

Its not me saying disabled people would be barred. Its disabled people. You can't book assistance like now if there is nobody employed to assist.

It will be fascinating to see how you implement DOO on trains not designed for it and routes not amenable to it and stations where it would be dangerous. We're going to take services where self-dispatch by the guard is risky and move straight to driver dispatch via monitors and cameras.

ydoethur · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?
According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09
Given the strikes are meant to be partly about safety, that seems truly perverse.
Most work over Christmas is renewal / upgrade work. None of it is emergency, so no risk to safety. It'll simply be postponed to a later date where it is more disruptive.

Then again, if you are a passenger on an operator like TransPennine Express or Avanti, "disruptive" is every day so what's the difference? Labour's problem is that "renationalise" is not a magic wand. The blame for almost all of this is the DfT, so handing full control over to them would not solve anything.

A government department that doesn’t have a clue what it’s doing and keeps messing things up?

I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

ydoethur · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
"Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred "

That is an utterly ridiculous claim.
Well the conditions are "Driver-Only Operation of all trains in all companies and on all passenger services" - so no guard on the train to manage a ramp for wheelchairs. And "closure of all ticket offices and displacement of retail staff" - so no staff at all at a lot of stations.

Its not me saying disabled people would be barred. Its disabled people. You can't book assistance like now if there is nobody employed to assist.

It will be fascinating to see how you implement DOO on trains not designed for it and routes not amenable to it and stations where it would be dangerous. We're going to take services where self-dispatch by the guard is risky and move straight to driver dispatch via monitors and cameras.

There are of course many stations where there are no station staff anyway. For example, the only staffed station on the Chase line is Walsall. That includes Rugeley Trent Valley. So I don’t think that’s a vital objection.

There are however some lines where it might not be possible to manage without a guard due to the signalling system. The Central Wales springs to mind.

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.

To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.

HYUFD · December 2022

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

By contrast Starmer leads Sunak 38% to 37% as preferred PM in the redwall
https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1584993464286343168?s=20&t=KYtCJW0zD6JHg-i6KC2nww

kjh · December 2022

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

I'm not saying you are wrong HYUFD (you may well be correct as the Lds are not polling well), but Chris gave evidence re the LDs and you have responded with a poll re Con Vs Lab. You haven't responded to Chris' points, which I think you could easily do.

Barnesian · December 2022

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Average UK wages are only rising at 6%, only a little more than 4%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/
That’s 50% more than 4%.

And if the 6% includes public sector at say 4% than means private sector is about 8%. That's 100% more than 4%.

DavidL · December 2022

As the US marine commander said in the Korean war, "the enemy is in front of us, behind us and on both sides. They won't get away this time."

Jonathan · December 2022

Is Hanlon’s razor now official Conservative Party policy?

Andy_Cooke · December 2022

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Average UK wages are only rising at 6%, only a little more than 4%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/

So let them start by offering 6%. It's only a little more than 4%, after all.

No_Offence_Alan · December 2022

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

What were the equivalent figures for Boris v Corbyn in 2019?

DavidL · December 2022

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

One step from the green ink.

Stuartinromford · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.

And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.

Fairliered · December 2022

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Bashing the unions. A policy designed to shore up their core supporters and keep the Express and Mail readers happy. Cf: immigration, woke.

kjh · December 2022

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/
By contrast Starmer leads Sunak 38% to 37% as preferred PM in the redwall
https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1584993464286343168?s=20&t=KYtCJW0zD6JHg-i6KC2nww

Again the argument put was about the LDs in the blue wall not Lab in the redwall or blue wall.

You are answering a point not made. I don't think anyone disagrees with the points you have made.

kjh · December 2022

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

One step from the green ink.

Oh he is way passed the green ink. He is on the crayons.

Stuartinromford · December 2022

Fairliered said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Bashing the unions. A policy designed to shore up their core supporters and keep the Express and Mail readers happy. Cf: immigration, woke.

Though as with immigration and woke, picking a fight you aren't capable of winning just leaves you worse off.

turbotubbs · December 2022

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.

Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.

HYUFD · December 2022

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/
What were the equivalent figures for Boris v Corbyn in 2019?

The comparison is Boris v Starmer in summer this year not 2019 figures.

Sunak is doing better relative to Boris v Starmer in the bluewall but worse relative to Boris in the redwall

ydoethur · December 2022

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.

Teachers are already striking in Scotland. I would be very surprised if NASUWT don’t vote to strike in their ongoing ballot.

kjh · December 2022

Jonathan said:
Is Hanlon’s razor now official Conservative Party policy?

I had never heard of Hanlon's razor, but it is something I had always believed in everyday life.

logical_song · December 2022

HYUFD said:

logical_song said:
Could Desantis face a challenge from Cheney in 2024?

"A Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters found DeSantis with a decisive lead in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, at 24.2 percent, followed by Cheney with 16.4 percent. Trump came in third place with 14.6 percent, nearly 2 points below Cheney"
That is Utah which dislikes Trump and is Romney country.

Nationwide amongst Republican voters Trump leads DeSantis 36% to 30%
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/who-republicans-want-as-2024-presidential-nominee

I was surprised that Cheney was at 16.4%, she's not even listed in that Yougov poll.
I can't see Republicans going with Trump again, he could be convicted by the time of the eletion, but in any case he's now a proven loser.

HYUFD · December 2022

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.

Of course they would, even more so as the public sector is Labour's core vote and so a Labour government is more likely to be forced to give into public sector unions wage demands than a Tory one.

Plus until peace between Russia and Ukraine there will still be sanctions, reduced supplies and high inflation

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.

If Labour were in power now and this was a 1978 scenario where they are the government at war with the unions, then there would be Big Trouble. But the Tories are in office, and I assume Labour learned much from the way the Tories played the "there is no money left" card from 2010.

The Tories have broken the economy. The Tories have crippled public services. The Tories have destroyed "industrial" relations with militant communist groups like Barristers.

All Labour need to do is a couple of decent compromise deals with the emphasis on getting services back up to scratch and blame the Tories for the enormous mess they inherited. Remember that taxes are at peak gonzo levels at the same time as services are falling apart - a canny Labour party could milk this for a decade. Question is whether the knuckle-dragging wing of the Labour party will play ball.

HYUFD · December 2022

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

logical_song said:
Could Desantis face a challenge from Cheney in 2024?

"A Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters found DeSantis with a decisive lead in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary, at 24.2 percent, followed by Cheney with 16.4 percent. Trump came in third place with 14.6 percent, nearly 2 points below Cheney"
That is Utah which dislikes Trump and is Romney country.

Nationwide amongst Republican voters Trump leads DeSantis 36% to 30%
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/who-republicans-want-as-2024-presidential-nominee
I was surprised that Cheney was at 16.4%, she's not even listed in that Yougov poll.
I can't see Republicans going with Trump again, he could be convicted by the time of the eletion, but in any case he's now a proven loser.

2 in 5 Republicans describe themselves as MAGA now and Trump gets 49% with them and Don Jnr gets 11% with them giving 60% of MAGA Republicans for Trumps

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

HYUFD said:

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.
Of course they would, even more so as the public sector is Labour's core vote and so a Labour government is more likely to be forced to give into public sector unions wage demands than a Tory one.

Plus until peace between Russia and Ukraine there will still be sanctions, reduced supplies and high inflation

If the disputes were exclusively about wages you would have a point. That you and yours refuse to accept they are also about services - which are on their knees thanks to this government - is why the issue will be long-term damaging for you.

David Cameron and his lot transformed the image and reputation of the party. You need a new Cameron - anyone obvious who is still going to be an MP after the election?

HYUFD · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.
If Labour were in power now and this was a 1978 scenario where they are the government at war with the unions, then there would be Big Trouble. But the Tories are in office, and I assume Labour learned much from the way the Tories played the "there is no money left" card from 2010.

The Tories have broken the economy. The Tories have crippled public services. The Tories have destroyed "industrial" relations with militant communist groups like Barristers.

All Labour need to do is a couple of decent compromise deals with the emphasis on getting services back up to scratch and blame the Tories for the enormous mess they inherited. Remember that taxes are at peak gonzo levels at the same time as services are falling apart - a canny Labour party could milk this for a decade. Question is whether the knuckle-dragging wing of the Labour party will play ball.

Unemployment at 4% still half the 8% the last Labour government left in 2010

kle4 · December 2022

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

It seems more likely than ever when even that insanity doesn't get called out. They agree or are afraid of him.

Casino_Royale · December 2022

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:
On the bright side, with the train strikes, it means I don't have to go to any of those tedious office and client Christmas parties.
Four days of workshops and a Christmas party next week means having to stay in a hotel in town. Not sure how to get home on Friday. May have to park at Heathrow. Ho Ho Ho.

Poor you. The shit you have to shovel.

RochdalePioneers · December 2022

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.
If Labour were in power now and this was a 1978 scenario where they are the government at war with the unions, then there would be Big Trouble. But the Tories are in office, and I assume Labour learned much from the way the Tories played the "there is no money left" card from 2010.

The Tories have broken the economy. The Tories have crippled public services. The Tories have destroyed "industrial" relations with militant communist groups like Barristers.

All Labour need to do is a couple of decent compromise deals with the emphasis on getting services back up to scratch and blame the Tories for the enormous mess they inherited. Remember that taxes are at peak gonzo levels at the same time as services are falling apart - a canny Labour party could milk this for a decade. Question is whether the knuckle-dragging wing of the Labour party will play ball.
Unemployment at 4% still half the 8% the last Labour government left in 2010

And in the real world what is the rate of underemployment? Of people involuntarily economically inactive? How about people working flat out who can't pay their bills.

Quoting statistics will not persuade the people suffering the reality that their reality is wrong and the statistics are right.

Gallowgate · December 2022

@HYUFD are you also telling shareholders not to take dividends in order to prevent an inflationary spiral?

kle4 · December 2022

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

Not when they could have Ye. Ultimate banter heuristic.
The Republican establishment have completely gone off him, but remain terrified of criticising him directly. Just in case.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3762903-senate-gop-pans-trump-call-to-terminate-constitution/
...Senate GOP members had an array of responses to Trump’s suggestion but, in typical fashion, avoided criticizing the former president himself...

Always wanting events to take care of him for them. But if you have a problem you have to deal with it, not ignore it.

HYUFD · December 2022

Gallowgate said:
@HYUFD are you also telling shareholders not to take dividends in order to prevent an inflationary spiral?

If firms don't make a profit or see losses due to strikes they can't afford to make dividend payments to shareholders anyway. They might even have to ask shareholders to raise capital

Malmesbury · December 2022

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?
According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09
Given the strikes are meant to be partly about safety, that seems truly perverse.
Most work over Christmas is renewal / upgrade work. None of it is emergency, so no risk to safety. It'll simply be postponed to a later date where it is more disruptive.

Then again, if you are a passenger on an operator like TransPennine Express or Avanti, "disruptive" is every day so what's the difference? Labour's problem is that "renationalise" is not a magic wand. The blame for almost all of this is the DfT, so handing full control over to them would not solve anything.
A government department that doesn’t have a clue what it’s doing and keeps messing things up?

I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

The great thing about my proposed space program is that stupendous payload and rapid reuse are baked in. So, after the DfE makes the first landing on the surface of the Sun.

No_Offence_Alan · December 2022

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:
No but at present Starmer is winning enough redwall seats and Labour v Con battlegrounds for other battles not to matter.

Sunak does seem to have shored up Tory support in the bluewall though a bit which will reduce Tory losses to the LDs there.

The 6 Tory seats in Scotland make little difference to the overall result, Cameron even won an overall majority in 2015 with just 1 Tory seat in Scotland
Why do you think, young HY, that Sunak has "shored up Tory support in the bluewall"? This is precisely where the Lib Dems are best organised, and are investing vast sums of money. I think you are basing your Conservative spin on national polling, and not looking closely at specific seats. A mistake, I think. Local government byelections are a far better guide to organisational strength locally and therefore general election prospects.
Sunak leads Starmer 44% to 35% as preferred PM in bluewall seats and that will likely translate to voting intention by polling day in my view

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/
What were the equivalent figures for Boris v Corbyn in 2019?
The comparison is Boris v Starmer in summer this year not 2019 figures.

Sunak is doing better relative to Boris v Starmer in the bluewall but worse relative to Boris in the redwall

You said "by polling day" - last polling day was in 2019 - that is th relevant figure.

HYUFD · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

turbotubbs said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
There are also the drunken louts on weekend evenings. Who polices them? It's a recipe for fare evasion and passengers afraid to use the trains.
To be fair that already happens - and during the day when York races is on. The real problem is the simple reality that DOO isn't universally safe - if it was then all rains would already have been using it as it was in franchisee best interests to modernise as much as they can.

Anyway, how do we resolve the growing industrial disputes, not just RDG vs RMT? The government can't / won't pay what is being asked, and workers in so many service sectors are simply refusing to accept a cut in pay and conditions and safety.

I understand the right-wing of the Tory party thinks bash the unions wins votes. And to a point they are probably right. But the general sense of a country falling apart at the seams, where nothing works properly yet taxes are ludicrously high - that isn't good for their re-election prospects. They don't seem to get this because so many are in denial about the country falling apart by the seams reality.
And there's plenty more strikes a'coming. Definitely nurses, presumably teachers.

I wasn't paying attention to much in 1974, or 1979. But this does feel like a government with the potential to lose control of the situation.
Possibly, but would Labour be in a better position? They will face the same constraints that the current government does.
Of course they would, even more so as the public sector is Labour's core vote and so a Labour government is more likely to be forced to give into public sector unions wage demands than a Tory one.

Plus until peace between Russia and Ukraine there will still be sanctions, reduced supplies and high inflation
If the disputes were exclusively about wages you would have a point. That you and yours refuse to accept they are also about services - which are on their knees thanks to this government - is why the issue will be long-term damaging for you.

David Cameron and his lot transformed the image and reputation of the party. You need a new Cameron - anyone obvious who is still going to be an MP after the election?

So you say the Tories have bought public services to their knees on one hand.

Then the Tories need a new Cameron and Osborne when they pursued far deeper austerity than May, Boris and Sunak have done and really did see public sector cuts.

Cameron may have been relatively socially liberal but he was the most fiscally Conservative PM we have had since Thatcher too

Gallowgate · December 2022

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:
@HYUFD are you also telling shareholders not to take dividends in order to prevent an inflationary spiral?
If firms don't make a profit or see losses due to strikes they can't afford to make dividend payments to shareholders anyway. They might even have to ask shareholders to raise capital

If firms don’t make a profit they cut jobs and go bust anyway.

I see your hypocrisy.

Bozza · December 2022

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.

As the impressive Nadim Zahawi pointed out on Sunday, the strikes are an attempt by a Russia/UnionBaron/ Labour cabal to destabilise our great nation. They cannot and will not prevail. The future of Great Britain and Northern Ireland depends on steadfast government.

Dura_Ace · December 2022

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

It seems more likely than ever when even that insanity doesn't get called out. They agree or are afraid of him.

Presumably Cruz/Rubio will announce in March/April because what the fuck else are they going to do.

RDS doesn't really have to do anything before June. It probably serves him to wait as DJT may shift even further on his con-man/genuine mental illness spectrum.

Cyclefree · December 2022

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:
Re the train strikes over Xmas, my son bought a ticket for the trains from the Lakes to London on the 27th so that he can get back to work on the 28th. Ditto my brother.

The journeys - normally 3 - 4 hours - were complicated enough: instead of straight down the West Coast to Euston they wandered round the North with multiple changes.

What happens now? Do they get their money back?
According to RMT twitter the 24th to 27th strike only effects engineering works, so services may still be running.

https://twitter.com/RMTunion/status/1599872506009116685?t=CaY3h5PC1PEmYJAlYXaxaw&s=09

His train is from Oxenholme. Normally it is straight through to London. But not this year. 2 changes at Manchester and Leeds. So the risk is that he gets stranded.

Pisses me off. He works 9 - 10 hour days plus a 2 hour commute. He works right up to 5:30 on Xmas Eve then just 3 days off and he's back at work. I will drive him up on Xmas Eve so God knows what the roads will be like then and 1of his 3 days will be spent trying to get back because in this effing country nothing works. Messes up my Xmas as well. But that matters less.

If you're young and try to work hard in this country, you're fucked. Grrrr 🤬

Nigelb · December 2022

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:
Trump clarifies that while he called for terminating the Constitution, he didn’t mean terminating the whole Constitution, just the bits that relate to the operation of our democracy and anything else that might prevent him from seizing power
https://twitter.com/originalspin/status/1599923908391882753
His postings on the subject are increasingly deranged, it really would be astonishing for the Rupublicans to pick him again.

One step from the green ink.

No, it's one step beyond - complete Madness.

Fairliered · December 2022

I never thought I would ever feel sorry for Matt Hancock.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63864192

DougSeal · December 2022

Bozza said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
As the impressive Nadim Zahawi pointed out on Sunday, the strikes are an attempt by a Russia/UnionBaron/ Labour cabal to destabilise our great nation. They cannot and will not prevail. The future of Great Britain and Northern Ireland depends on steadfast government.

Parody? 🤔 So hard to tell these days.

ydoethur · December 2022

Fairliered said:
I never thought I would ever feel sorry for Matt Hancock.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63864192

I still don't.

Dura_Ace · December 2022

DougSeal said:

Bozza said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
As the impressive Nadim Zahawi pointed out on Sunday, the strikes are an attempt by a Russia/UnionBaron/ Labour cabal to destabilise our great nation. They cannot and will not prevail. The future of Great Britain and Northern Ireland depends on steadfast government.
Parody? 🤔 So hard to tell these days.

Perfomance art but weak. Not on the level of Joe Orton defacing library books.

Nigelb · December 2022

DougSeal said:

Bozza said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
As the impressive Nadim Zahawi pointed out on Sunday, the strikes are an attempt by a Russia/UnionBaron/ Labour cabal to destabilise our great nation. They cannot and will not prevail. The future of Great Britain and Northern Ireland depends on steadfast government.
Parody? 🤔 So hard to tell these days.

"the impressive Nadim Zahawi" can hardly be anything else.

DougSeal · December 2022

Dura_Ace said:

DougSeal said:

Bozza said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:
What is the government playing at offering 4% when inflation is above 10%? My teams private sector salaries are rising significantly faster than 4%.

Why does the government want strikes?

Two possibilities.

One is that Maggie Faced Down The Unions, and this is pure happy place for the government.

The other is that they don't want to spend the money on public sector pay. Provided you don't overdo it, the negative effects of a pay squeeze are less visible than cutting services or raising taxes. And quicker, cheaper and easier than the sort of re-engineering that might save money in the medium term.

Unfortunately, the government does now seem to have overdone it.
The pay insult ("its 8%" when its only 4%) was designed to get dumb journalists repeat the message, That is a distraction. The RDG deal would have changed how the railways operate - significantly and frankly catastrophically for passengers.

It isn't just "lets stand up to the unions for points" issue. Its that Tory ministers are clueless about reality. A succession of them banging on about the "digital railway" as a solution when it isn't. Banging on about driverless trains, and "aha, what about the Docklands???" when told it isn't possible.

And now the proposal to make all trains DOO and remove all ticket offices. Essentially a railway with no staff, where disabled people are barred and anyone needing help or information about the absurdly complex ticketing system is easy prey for the roaming revenue punishment inspectors.

And not just the ministers. DfT mandarins have egregiously screwed up so many things, from specifications on trains and the procurement contracts to working practice changes which means some operators barely operate. On Twitter yesterday was the example of DOO on Thameslink, where the DfT spec system doesn't work properly and is substandard according to their own standards, with staff needed to ensure people don't get dragged along the train out of sight of sub-standards and/or non-functioning cameras.
As the impressive Nadim Zahawi pointed out on Sunday, the strikes are an attempt by a Russia/UnionBaron/ Labour cabal to destabilise our great nation. They cannot and will not prevail. The future of Great Britain and Northern Ireland depends on steadfast government.
Parody? 🤔 So hard to tell these days.
Perfomance art but weak. Not on the level of Joe Orton defacing library books.

Mate of mine used to live in the flat on Noel Road N1 where he was murdered. Joe Orton that is. My friend’s still alive.

Barnesian · December 2022

..

Nigelb · December 2022

Fairliered said:
I never thought I would ever feel sorry for Matt Hancock.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63864192

If Hancock were the only witness against her, Mone would have no worries.
Fortunately that is not the case.

M45 · December 2022

ydoethur said:

Fairliered said:
I never thought I would ever feel sorry for Matt Hancock.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63864192
I still don't.

Goodness me:

' "By the end of the message, she seemed to have worked herself into a complete frenzy and was throwing around wild accusations. 'I smell a rat here. It is more than the usual red tape, incompetence and bureaucracy. That's expected! I believe there is corruption here at the highest levels'," he said.'

Let's all have a good long think about who could possibly be called "the highest levels" at the relevant time.

It’s a mistake to think of the election as just LAB vs CON – politicalbetting.com

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