politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 2nd 2014
Options
Comments
-
To be fair NICE recommends its use only as part of a psycho-social therapy. Nonetheless not all physicians are part of the nanny state. Consider this tirade:Beverley_C said:HurstLlama said:
"Men drinking three pints of beer and women drinking two large glasses of wine per night and who do not cut down within two weeks should be prescribed a new drug, Nice has said. There are an estimated 750,000 people in the UK who would be eligible for nalmefene who show no overt symptoms associated with their drinking.
The plans mean GPs will actively ask patients about their alcohol consumption even when they see them for unrelated health matter"
Speaking as someone who buried an alcoholic friend less than 12 months ago (the 3rd one in five years), I feel quite sure that this will never work. My friend would simply never have taken the pill, so you would have had to send someone round to make her take it every day. Someone big and beefy because when you cornered her about alcohol she would yell, fight, scream, kick and punch.
Ironically, it seems that it was the NHS that accidently killed her off. As she had multiple organ failure the doctors had to stick more and more needles in to her for this, that or the other. Eventually something somewhere was thinner than expected and a needle punctured her bowel. Since they could not operate (anaesthetic would kill her) she died of peritonitis.
Does somebody really think that handing out a pill is the answer?
http://www.badmed.net/bad-medicine-blog/2011/10/through-glass-amber-nectar-darkly.html0 -
Philip/Hugh Yougov's daily tracker covers just today and yesterday, so if any bounce should have filtered through in tonight's poll0
-
Any poll ?0
-
No bounce might be bigger news.
Yougov resolutely refuses to follow the media narrative of ed is double cr*p, which must be galling in the extreme to certain editors.
0 -
welshowl True, the NATO summit was also one over for Newport over Cardiff0
-
UKIP on 46?0
-
taffys No bounce would not be rather interesting, it would be no change, but we shall see0
-
It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.Fat_Steve said:
Interesting development.Peter_the_Punter said:
It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, perhaps.
I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.
It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.
Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".
The reason it likes its military?
As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."
(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures0 -
Dunno, but 3% would be low up the Rhondda. To be clear though Llandaff North is not Llandaff which is next to it. Llandaff is quite posh ( very in parts ), Llandaff North is more 40's/50's housing with quite a lot of (ex? ) local authority. It's a less well off bit sandwiched between fairly well off Llandaff and fairly well off Whitchurch.FrankBooth said:I wonder if Llandaff north independents are Tories? Something like that happened in Rhiwbina. That's an astonishingly poor vote share for the Tories in what is one of the more affluent parts of Cardiff.
0 -
I'd expect a Tory bounce of sorts, can't believe Cameron wouldn't have done a great deal of research on the popularity of his ideas.0
-
taffys No bounce would not be rather interesting, it would be no change, but we shall see
True
How about
Milli sensationally extends lead...!!!
0 -
Hmmm...foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair NICE recommends its use only as part of a psycho-social therapy.
Having been round a lot of psychiatrists and doctors over the past few years, I am not reassured.
I have never known a regular drinker who cared about what doctors or politicians had to say on the matter. At one point in my life I spent 7 years working behind bars and the main issues concerning most drinkers was (a) Gossip, (b) Sport and (c) Whose turn is the next round?foxinsoxuk said:Nonetheless not all physicians are part of the nanny state. Consider this tirade:
http://www.badmed.net/bad-medicine-blog/2011/10/through-glass-amber-nectar-darkly.html
0 -
Must be interesting if it has got its own story. I don't think the Sun would want to publicize Labour still being seven ahead having made such a fuss of Cameron's proposals on its front page yesterday.0
-
I knew I had taste.And to be living in the only medium sized town in an area of rich villages in the shires, which I imagine is part of how the poorer area with richest area outside it developed - now I just need to find a way out of the area with 40% child poverty, to 1.5 miles down the road which has 2% child poverty, although to be honest it all still looks and feels the same, so goodness only knows how that works.HYUFD said:Eastwinger/kle4 Seems most pbers in/close to more refined areas of their locales
If it keeps up, and I suspect it shall, I imagine some pollsters will start getting worried at how nailed on a Lab majority seems, despite their own polling saying how poor Ed M supposedly is, and wondering if they are all about to get it wrong. They won't.taffys said:No bounce might be bigger news.
Yougov resolutely refuses to follow the media narrative of ed is double cr*p, which must be galling in the extreme to certain editors.0 -
Taffys If Mili sensationally increases lead I think even I will admit he will walk into No 10 next year0
-
Back in March, when Osborne was basking in the glow of a well received budget, the gap dropped from 7-8 to 1-2.
0 -
kle4 It does look a bit ridiculous I agree, though not as bad as Central London where council houses on 1 street can be next to multimillion pound streets on the next0
-
Ukip @ 6/5 in Rochester is a stonking price.0
-
On topic, well done to the LDs for apparently finding someone to stand in South Tyneside, given their previous vote share and the party state that it is. Tories too I guess, though they are not in as bad a position. I love how quickly local authorities can shift - even if the same party is in control, you can go from tight majority to one party state with surprising rapidity.0
-
Could only be improved by some loving company.SeanT said:The nicest town on the Riviera is Menton, as any fule kno.
Tho, having recently spent ten days swanning around the Aeolians and points south, I'd say that Sicily is nicer and more interesting than anywhere in France. The food is almost as good, the climate is much kinder, the tourists are fewer (except in total honeypots like Panarea), the history is grander, and, of course, Italians are amiable and charming, in stark contrast to the French.
I also had the prettiest breakfast in history, in Taormina Mara, at the Sant'Andrea. I even took a photo.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywncHxCIAAgr9l.jpg0 -
SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them0
-
True, and not least that the Assembly in Cardiff tends to very much see it that way.welshowl said:
Absolutely right of course in all seriousness. There again ( not that I'm biased of course, heaven forfend ) Newport's main issue, as I've always seen it, is it's too close to Cardiff and suffers accordingly from being in its shadow, sadly for it.HYUFD said:welshowl Well it is still quite Green until just before Newport station, you go over a river and Newport Castle is on the left
Also to an extent Bristol in the other direction, not to mention the tolls on the Severn bridges don't help.
With a bit of work Newport could develop nicely into serving both of them. If you were starting over it'd have been better to do without Cardiff airport (not enough traffic) and Bristol airport (horrifically awful transport links) and stick one just to the east of Newport. But a mixture of sunk costs and egos mean that'll never happen.0 -
Hopping on a plane across the pond back home! Nice that my British passport is not defunct in any way!0
-
My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.JosiasJessop said:
It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.Fat_Steve said:
Interesting development.Peter_the_Punter said:
It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, perhaps.
I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.
It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.
Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".
The reason it likes its military?
As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."
(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.0 -
Sounds like could be crossover.
Wonder if its the first EICInotPM since I started posting at the start of June0 -
My granddaughter lives just off Seven Sisters Road at the Tottenhamend, to be honest I thought it would be rough but not too bad at all. They have built a new leisure centre near the station and that end seems OK.Peter_the_Punter said:
Lol!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, what is this Seven Sisters Road to which you refer?
It runs from Finsbury Park to Tottenham. I don't honestly know what it's like now but when I were a lad it was notable for the large Greek and Turkish populations living either side. Things sometimes got a bit tense between the two communities, especially at times like the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus, or when Panathinaikos played Galatasaray.
Incidentally, it helped teach me about arbitrage. Arsenal's ground once stood close to the Finsbury Park End, and Tottenham's home at White Hart Lane can be found at the other. Many years ago the two teams met in the Cup. They were fairly closely matched at the time. (It was a very long time ago.) But if you went to a bookies at one end of the Seven Sisters Road you could get odds against Arsenal, and at the other end odds against Tottenham.
It was a nice little earner, even after deducting the cost of the bus fare.
Toodle pip. Must away.0 -
As a massive generalisation, the urban and tourist-led parts of Turkey are very different in temperament from the countryside. Erdogan's support comes largely from the religious countryside, not the secular cities.MikeK said:
My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.JosiasJessop said:
It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.Fat_Steve said:
Interesting development.Peter_the_Punter said:
It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, perhaps.
I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.
It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.
Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".
The reason it likes its military?
As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."
(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.0 -
bigjohnowls Only 15 minutes to go, though would be big turnaround if was a Tory lead, probably not quite as dramatic but we shall see0
-
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.0
-
My daughter has just come back from a few days in Ravello, Positano and a night in Naples, she loved it.SeanT said:
The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.HYUFD said:SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them
Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.
Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.
I am thinking if Sicily or Sardinia next year, any advice from anyone? And is it hugely expensive?0 -
Dead right. There was a vague plan to build an airport on Llanwern to serve Cardiff and Bristol but nothing will ever happen. Cardiff has the big runway and no business and Bristol is bursting at the seams, has a little runway, and is halfway to Exeter down a country lane.corporeal said:
True, and not least that the Assembly in Cardiff tends to very much see it that way.welshowl said:
Absolutely right of course in all seriousness. There again ( not that I'm biased of course, heaven forfend ) Newport's main issue, as I've always seen it, is it's too close to Cardiff and suffers accordingly from being in its shadow, sadly for it.HYUFD said:welshowl Well it is still quite Green until just before Newport station, you go over a river and Newport Castle is on the left
Also to an extent Bristol in the other direction, not to mention the tolls on the Severn bridges don't help.
With a bit of work Newport could develop nicely into serving both of them. If you were starting over it'd have been better to do without Cardiff airport (not enough traffic) and Bristol airport (horrifically awful transport links) and stick one just to the east of Newport. But a mixture of sunk costs and egos mean that'll never happen.0 -
Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
0 -
Labour v Labour:
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
RED ON RED: Fake Leaflet of Candidate Snorting Sambuca With Hospital Tube http://order-order.com/2014/10/02/red-on-red-dirty-tricks-against-alcoholic-labour-ppcfake-leaflet-of-candidate-snorting-sambuca-with-hospital-tube/ …0 -
Nah, even with slight crossover you should be safe on that one I should think. Maybe a probably would need to be in there, so EICIPPMbigjohnowls said:Sounds like could be crossover.
Wonder if its the first EICInotPM since I started posting at the start of June0 -
The local white wine 'Vermentino Di Gallura' in Sardinia is really nice. Indulge.nigel4england said:
My daughter has just come back from a few days in Ravello, Positano and a night in Naples, she loved it.SeanT said:
The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.HYUFD said:SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them
Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.
Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.
I am thinking if Sicily or Sardinia next year, any advice from anyone? And is it hugely expensive?
0 -
It'll probably a be a MOE reduction in the labour lead.MaxPB said:
Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
If there's one thing I've learnt in recent years, journalists have a history of hyping up sub MOE change in polls.0 -
But chasing the rear of UKIP in the imminent by election in their back yard? It needs to be illogical and contradictory.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
0 -
I'm going with 2pt Labour lead...TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll probably a be a MOE reduction in the labour lead.MaxPB said:
Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
If there's one thing I've learnt in recent years, journalists have a history of hyping up sub MOE change in polls.0 -
SeanT Sicily sounds a good bet then, traffic mad across Italy, certainly in Rome. My parents went to Naples a few years ago and quite enjoyed it but from the sounds of it can be more variable0
-
Istanbul seems a much different demographic to much of Turkey, and much more westward-looking, viz the locals in restaurants quaffing raki and the (variable quality) local wine. When I was there a relatively short trip across the Sea of Marmara to Bursa found a much more "traditional" culture, women in headscarves, etc. (And the tomb of Osman Ghazi and some nice mosques, Bursa was the capital of the Osmanli state before they captured Constantinople). They need to get tourism sorted out, they could make much more of the land walls and all the Byzantine churches (some turned into mosques) and they could make much more of the Crimean era British military hospital at Kadikoy, although admittedly it is still a functioning barracks.MikeK said:
My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.JosiasJessop said:
It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.Fat_Steve said:
Interesting development.Peter_the_Punter said:
It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, perhaps.
I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.
It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.
Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".
The reason it likes its military?
As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."
(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.
0 -
Good stuff. Your lonely breakfast in a beautiful setting looked horribly melancholy.SeanT said:
You will be glad to know I am, at present, stepping out with a Special Police Constable (Female) - half my age. Her beat, by sheer coincidence, is Camden and Primrose Hill.Hugh said:
Could only be improved by some loving company.SeanT said:The nicest town on the Riviera is Menton, as any fule kno.
Tho, having recently spent ten days swanning around the Aeolians and points south, I'd say that Sicily is nicer and more interesting than anywhere in France. The food is almost as good, the climate is much kinder, the tourists are fewer (except in total honeypots like Panarea), the history is grander, and, of course, Italians are amiable and charming, in stark contrast to the French.
I also had the prettiest breakfast in history, in Taormina Mara, at the Sant'Andrea. I even took a photo.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywncHxCIAAgr9l.jpg
She is joining me for some of my jaunts, local crime permitting.
Half your age though, let go of your youth and embrace your middle agedness will you? Like you embraced your posho Tory establishmentness.0 -
@Nigel4England
Not been to Sicily but have had several hols in Sardinia and it has never disappointed.
It's not expensive. Can be windy though at certain times of the year.0 -
Is there some kind of psychology going on here? Predicting the worst so you don't end up disappointed. That would have to be the most inept party conference ever. Can't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
0 -
You're joking surely TSE?TheScreamingEagles said:I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
Not long to wait now!0 -
Argh! I'm about to take off, and previously when I was airborne we had three crossover polls in a sigle day!0
-
Thanks for the advice everyone, I shall decide soon but will definitely go to one or the other.Peter_the_Punter said:@Nigel4England
Not been to Sicily but have had several hols in Sardinia and it has never disappointed.
It's not expensive. Can be windy though at certain times of the year.
I will definitely spend more time in Cornwall next year, at least six weeks and hopefully longer, and will get back to the Amalfi coast one day.0 -
Cough. Yougov is late.0
-
Breaking: Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50%0
-
Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50%0
-
Comfortable hold for Labour in Heywood and Middleton.0
-
Safe Labour seat, I told you so:
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 48s48 seconds ago
Breaking: Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50% http://bit.ly/1uh3m1p0 -
Ukip can't make up that gap, can they?0
-
Indeed. UKIP slightly better than expected, but the Labour by-election pattern in the NW holds.
Labour are home and dry up there, not just in the by-election but in 20150 -
So Sun trys to spin big likely win 4 Lab in Hetwood and Middleton as a disaster for Ed0
-
Breaking: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34% http://bit.ly/1uh32jf0
-
Crossover ! CON 35%, LAB 34 yougov breaking0
-
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 43s44 seconds ago
Breaking: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34% http://bit.ly/1uh32jf0 -
I'm fond of Naples. It's filthy and chaotic, but full of beautiful buildings, interesting museums, good restaurants, excellent tailors and cobblers, and very cheap. Of course, there are those narrow alleyways that you *must* avoid at night. And, it's close to the Amalfi coast, Capri, Ischia, and Pompeii.SeanT said:
The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.HYUFD said:SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them
Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.
Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.0 -
Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34%0
-
-
Excellent.0
-
Congrats to the Tories on another 5 years in government.0
-
Basil gets to put the goalposts down for 24 hours. Normal service to resume tomorrow.0
-
Crossover do some people finally get paid out on Crossover poll?0
-
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 58s58 seconds ago
…Cameron’s lead over Miliband as best PM now 21 points; 40% v 19%. Biggest gap since February 2012 http://bit.ly/1uh32jf0 -
Wouldn't have thought so, Pong, but a good second and a win in Clacton would be a good nite's work for them.Pong said:Ukip can't make up that gap, can they?
0 -
British Bill of Rights to be announced tomorrow, of course.0
-
Dan Hodges RULES OK !!0
-
Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34%@tnewtondunn0
-
31% for UKIP is damn good.0
-
Interesting to consider how big the tory lead would be were it not for UKIP.0
-
Easy win in Heywood then, a bridge too far for UKIP unfortunately. 'More Tory than the Tories' will continue to have leg as they are, despite that massive increase, easily seen off in Labour territory. Hell, see that repeated in other Labour seats and their seat win to popular vote percentage will be even better than usual.
Now the question for me is, will the Tories lose their deposit, and can the LDs possibly get lower than 2%.0 -
It's one poll, in the middle of conference season. Let's have a look in a month's time.Danny565 said:Congrats to the Tories on another 5 years in government.
If David Cameron has anyone to thank for this polling bump, he might want to think about thanking Nigel Farage, who in his determination to upstage the Tory party conference ensured that quite a few more people were paying attention to it than would usually be the case.0 -
Not good enoughSean_F said:31% for UKIP is damn good.
0 -
Everyone mutter quietly about conference bounces.
BUT YELL CROSSOVER!0 -
Speedy Well, as we were saying last night...0
-
As wiser heads predicted, the hard won economic competence ratings means the Tories are trusted to deliver tax cuts despite them being dated a for few years away. Labour = fucked.0
-
Full poll:
The Staggers @TheStaggers 37s37 seconds ago
New Sun/YouGov poll: Con 35% (+4), Lab 34% (-4), Ukip 14% (-1), Lib Dems 6% (-1). http://bit.ly/1uh32jf
Not much change from others, this is a clear Labour to Tory thing.0 -
Exactly and completely confirms the 'go to bed with nige and wake up with rED' meme.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Tonights YG LAB 319 CON 291 LD 11 EICIPM0
-
How long before Mark Senior flaps about the weightings?0
-
Though Tories should bear in mind yougov's even more sensational Yougov indyref poll before they get too carried away, nonetheless a huge boost for Cameron and a big blow to Miliband0
-
I predict in a week, back to 3-4 point lead for Labour....
The thing I think it does show, actually I think any lead is very soft, and I wouldn't be surprised if come the GE we end up with 34/36 or 35/35, but I can't see how the Tories are going to get to that 6+% lead they need (especially as Tories are still a total write off Scotland and North East) and UKIP will hoover up a decent % of right wing votes.0 -
add 2 to 4 pointsfelix said:Interesting to consider how big the tory lead would be were it not for UKIP.
0 -
Heywood and Middleton might be the first <10% gain for Labour in the NW in a by election in this Parliament.
And 34% is July 2010 polling, with one example in between, which occurred during the Euro 2014 failure.
The test is whether Labour stay at 34.0 -
New Thread0
-
Who are these people continuing to turn away from the LDs when 6 months ago they were still willing to support them?0
-
And after the LibDem Conference. the LibDems will have a 50% lead and "will form the next Government" Giggles uncontrollably.0
-
I could have sworn all the Labour (except SO, BenM and one or two others) were talking about this only appealing to UKIP, putting Lab and LibDems off the Tory party.Speedy said:Full poll:
The Staggers @TheStaggers 37s37 seconds ago
New Sun/YouGov poll: Con 35% (+4), Lab 34% (-4), Ukip 14% (-1), Lib Dems 6% (-1). http://bit.ly/1uh32jf
Not much change from others, this is a clear Labour to Tory thing.
Were they wrong? Why and how has all this rightism appealed to 4 points of the Labour solid immoveable 35+?0 -
LD down to just 11 seats on UNS!bigjohnowls said:Tonights YG LAB 319 CON 291 LD 11 EICIPM
0 -
The narrative at the end of the conference season (and let's face it, the LDs might as well not bother) is that Miliband had a shocker and Cameron got a lot of good coverage. Momentum is everything...
0 -
Full yougov details
CON - 35% (+4)
LAB - 34% (-4)
UKIP - 14% (-1)
LDEM - 6% (-1)0 -
I'm inclined to agree.FrancisUrquhart said:I predict in a week, back to 3-4 point lead for Labour....
Once the heat is off, the lead goes up.
The heat won't go off though between budget day and election day.
I suspect that a lot of those saying they will vote Labour will start looking at the LDs/SNP/Greens/Plaid once they think Labour won't make it.
0
This discussion has been closed.