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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 2nd 2014

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    "Men drinking three pints of beer and women drinking two large glasses of wine per night and who do not cut down within two weeks should be prescribed a new drug, Nice has said. There are an estimated 750,000 people in the UK who would be eligible for nalmefene who show no overt symptoms associated with their drinking.

    The plans mean GPs will actively ask patients about their alcohol consumption even when they see them for unrelated health matter"


    Speaking as someone who buried an alcoholic friend less than 12 months ago (the 3rd one in five years), I feel quite sure that this will never work. My friend would simply never have taken the pill, so you would have had to send someone round to make her take it every day. Someone big and beefy because when you cornered her about alcohol she would yell, fight, scream, kick and punch.

    Ironically, it seems that it was the NHS that accidently killed her off. As she had multiple organ failure the doctors had to stick more and more needles in to her for this, that or the other. Eventually something somewhere was thinner than expected and a needle punctured her bowel. Since they could not operate (anaesthetic would kill her) she died of peritonitis.

    Does somebody really think that handing out a pill is the answer?
    To be fair NICE recommends its use only as part of a psycho-social therapy. Nonetheless not all physicians are part of the nanny state. Consider this tirade:

    http://www.badmed.net/bad-medicine-blog/2011/10/through-glass-amber-nectar-darkly.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited October 2014
    Philip/Hugh Yougov's daily tracker covers just today and yesterday, so if any bounce should have filtered through in tonight's poll
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Any poll ?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    No bounce might be bigger news.

    Yougov resolutely refuses to follow the media narrative of ed is double cr*p, which must be galling in the extreme to certain editors.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    welshowl True, the NATO summit was also one over for Newport over Cardiff
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    UKIP on 46?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    taffys No bounce would not be rather interesting, it would be no change, but we shall see
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Fat_Steve said:

    Mr. Punter, perhaps.

    I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.

    It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.

    It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.

    Interesting development.
    Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".

    It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.

    The reason it likes its military?

    As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    I wonder if Llandaff north independents are Tories? Something like that happened in Rhiwbina. That's an astonishingly poor vote share for the Tories in what is one of the more affluent parts of Cardiff.

    Dunno, but 3% would be low up the Rhondda. To be clear though Llandaff North is not Llandaff which is next to it. Llandaff is quite posh ( very in parts ), Llandaff North is more 40's/50's housing with quite a lot of (ex? ) local authority. It's a less well off bit sandwiched between fairly well off Llandaff and fairly well off Whitchurch.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I'd expect a Tory bounce of sorts, can't believe Cameron wouldn't have done a great deal of research on the popularity of his ideas.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    taffys No bounce would not be rather interesting, it would be no change, but we shall see

    True

    How about

    Milli sensationally extends lead...!!!

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    To be fair NICE recommends its use only as part of a psycho-social therapy.

    Hmmm...

    Having been round a lot of psychiatrists and doctors over the past few years, I am not reassured.

    Nonetheless not all physicians are part of the nanny state. Consider this tirade:

    http://www.badmed.net/bad-medicine-blog/2011/10/through-glass-amber-nectar-darkly.html

    I have never known a regular drinker who cared about what doctors or politicians had to say on the matter. At one point in my life I spent 7 years working behind bars and the main issues concerning most drinkers was (a) Gossip, (b) Sport and (c) Whose turn is the next round?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Must be interesting if it has got its own story. I don't think the Sun would want to publicize Labour still being seven ahead having made such a fuss of Cameron's proposals on its front page yesterday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited October 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Eastwinger/kle4 Seems most pbers in/close to more refined areas of their locales

    I knew I had taste.And to be living in the only medium sized town in an area of rich villages in the shires, which I imagine is part of how the poorer area with richest area outside it developed - now I just need to find a way out of the area with 40% child poverty, to 1.5 miles down the road which has 2% child poverty, although to be honest it all still looks and feels the same, so goodness only knows how that works.
    taffys said:

    No bounce might be bigger news.

    Yougov resolutely refuses to follow the media narrative of ed is double cr*p, which must be galling in the extreme to certain editors.

    If it keeps up, and I suspect it shall, I imagine some pollsters will start getting worried at how nailed on a Lab majority seems, despite their own polling saying how poor Ed M supposedly is, and wondering if they are all about to get it wrong. They won't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Taffys If Mili sensationally increases lead I think even I will admit he will walk into No 10 next year
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Back in March, when Osborne was basking in the glow of a well received budget, the gap dropped from 7-8 to 1-2.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    kle4 It does look a bit ridiculous I agree, though not as bad as Central London where council houses on 1 street can be next to multimillion pound streets on the next
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ukip @ 6/5 in Rochester is a stonking price.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    On topic, well done to the LDs for apparently finding someone to stand in South Tyneside, given their previous vote share and the party state that it is. Tories too I guess, though they are not in as bad a position. I love how quickly local authorities can shift - even if the same party is in control, you can go from tight majority to one party state with surprising rapidity.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    SeanT said:

    The nicest town on the Riviera is Menton, as any fule kno.

    Tho, having recently spent ten days swanning around the Aeolians and points south, I'd say that Sicily is nicer and more interesting than anywhere in France. The food is almost as good, the climate is much kinder, the tourists are fewer (except in total honeypots like Panarea), the history is grander, and, of course, Italians are amiable and charming, in stark contrast to the French.

    I also had the prettiest breakfast in history, in Taormina Mara, at the Sant'Andrea. I even took a photo.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywncHxCIAAgr9l.jpg

    Could only be improved by some loving company.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    welshowl Well it is still quite Green until just before Newport station, you go over a river and Newport Castle is on the left

    Absolutely right of course in all seriousness. There again ( not that I'm biased of course, heaven forfend ) Newport's main issue, as I've always seen it, is it's too close to Cardiff and suffers accordingly from being in its shadow, sadly for it.
    True, and not least that the Assembly in Cardiff tends to very much see it that way.

    Also to an extent Bristol in the other direction, not to mention the tolls on the Severn bridges don't help.

    With a bit of work Newport could develop nicely into serving both of them. If you were starting over it'd have been better to do without Cardiff airport (not enough traffic) and Bristol airport (horrifically awful transport links) and stick one just to the east of Newport. But a mixture of sunk costs and egos mean that'll never happen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Hopping on a plane across the pond back home! Nice that my British passport is not defunct in any way!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Fat_Steve said:

    Mr. Punter, perhaps.

    I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.

    It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.

    It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.

    Interesting development.
    Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".

    It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.

    The reason it likes its military?

    As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
    My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.

    However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sounds like could be crossover.

    Wonder if its the first EICInotPM since I started posting at the start of June
  • Mr. Punter, what is this Seven Sisters Road to which you refer?

    Lol!

    It runs from Finsbury Park to Tottenham. I don't honestly know what it's like now but when I were a lad it was notable for the large Greek and Turkish populations living either side. Things sometimes got a bit tense between the two communities, especially at times like the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus, or when Panathinaikos played Galatasaray.

    Incidentally, it helped teach me about arbitrage. Arsenal's ground once stood close to the Finsbury Park End, and Tottenham's home at White Hart Lane can be found at the other. Many years ago the two teams met in the Cup. They were fairly closely matched at the time. (It was a very long time ago.) But if you went to a bookies at one end of the Seven Sisters Road you could get odds against Arsenal, and at the other end odds against Tottenham.

    It was a nice little earner, even after deducting the cost of the bus fare.

    Toodle pip. Must away.
    My granddaughter lives just off Seven Sisters Road at the Tottenhamend, to be honest I thought it would be rough but not too bad at all. They have built a new leisure centre near the station and that end seems OK.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    MikeK said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    Mr. Punter, perhaps.

    I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.

    It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.

    It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.

    Interesting development.
    Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".

    It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.

    The reason it likes its military?

    As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
    My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.

    However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.
    As a massive generalisation, the urban and tourist-led parts of Turkey are very different in temperament from the countryside. Erdogan's support comes largely from the religious countryside, not the secular cities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    bigjohnowls Only 15 minutes to go, though would be big turnaround if was a Tory lead, probably not quite as dramatic but we shall see
  • I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
  • SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them

    The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.

    Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.

    Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.
    My daughter has just come back from a few days in Ravello, Positano and a night in Naples, she loved it.

    I am thinking if Sicily or Sardinia next year, any advice from anyone? And is it hugely expensive?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    corporeal said:

    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    welshowl Well it is still quite Green until just before Newport station, you go over a river and Newport Castle is on the left

    Absolutely right of course in all seriousness. There again ( not that I'm biased of course, heaven forfend ) Newport's main issue, as I've always seen it, is it's too close to Cardiff and suffers accordingly from being in its shadow, sadly for it.
    True, and not least that the Assembly in Cardiff tends to very much see it that way.

    Also to an extent Bristol in the other direction, not to mention the tolls on the Severn bridges don't help.

    With a bit of work Newport could develop nicely into serving both of them. If you were starting over it'd have been better to do without Cardiff airport (not enough traffic) and Bristol airport (horrifically awful transport links) and stick one just to the east of Newport. But a mixture of sunk costs and egos mean that'll never happen.
    Dead right. There was a vague plan to build an airport on Llanwern to serve Cardiff and Bristol but nothing will ever happen. Cardiff has the big runway and no business and Bristol is bursting at the seams, has a little runway, and is halfway to Exeter down a country lane.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Labour v Labour:
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
    RED ON RED: Fake Leaflet of Candidate Snorting Sambuca With Hospital Tube http://order-order.com/2014/10/02/red-on-red-dirty-tricks-against-alcoholic-labour-ppcfake-leaflet-of-candidate-snorting-sambuca-with-hospital-tube/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Sounds like could be crossover.

    Wonder if its the first EICInotPM since I started posting at the start of June

    Nah, even with slight crossover you should be safe on that one I should think. Maybe a probably would need to be in there, so EICIPPM
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them

    The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.

    Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.

    Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.
    My daughter has just come back from a few days in Ravello, Positano and a night in Naples, she loved it.

    I am thinking if Sicily or Sardinia next year, any advice from anyone? And is it hugely expensive?
    The local white wine 'Vermentino Di Gallura' in Sardinia is really nice. Indulge.
  • MaxPB said:

    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.
    It'll probably a be a MOE reduction in the labour lead.

    If there's one thing I've learnt in recent years, journalists have a history of hyping up sub MOE change in polls.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    But chasing the rear of UKIP in the imminent by election in their back yard? It needs to be illogical and contradictory.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MaxPB said:

    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    Interesting is either this or a Tory lead.
    It'll probably a be a MOE reduction in the labour lead.

    If there's one thing I've learnt in recent years, journalists have a history of hyping up sub MOE change in polls.
    I'm going with 2pt Labour lead...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    SeanT Sicily sounds a good bet then, traffic mad across Italy, certainly in Rome. My parents went to Naples a few years ago and quite enjoyed it but from the sounds of it can be more variable
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    MikeK said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    Mr. Punter, perhaps.

    I'm sure Mr. Y0kel can give us more (and more accurate) info, but haven't they been lax letting would-be jihadists get to ISIS? I also imagine many, many Turks are wary about starting a land war with a vicious and pretty successful regime.

    It was Mr Yokel that gave us the heads up the other evening.

    It is of course a very close and relevant threat to them. I think they would welcome the chance to sort a few bods out.

    Interesting development.
    Is the Turkish military highly rated? I sort of have feeling that it is, but that may be just an unconscious thing from having seen the film "Gallipoli".

    It's a member of NATO (not that that means much nowadays), and has a fairly up-to-date and well-resourced military. It's in around 14th place in international rankings (1), and although it spends about a third of what the UK does on its military, it spends roughly the same percent of GDP. It also has national service, and probably gets more bang for its buck than we do.

    The reason it likes its military?

    As Mrs J says: "Turkey's surrounded by eight countries, and doesn't get on with any of them."

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
    My son came round this afternoon after returning from a fortnight holiday in Istanbul, not Constantinople. He brought me a box of the local Lokum (Turkish Delight), which is more rubbery in texture that our locally produced product.

    However, he also said the the Istanbul side of the Bosphorus is not really enamoured with the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and there were no signs of anything military there.
    Istanbul seems a much different demographic to much of Turkey, and much more westward-looking, viz the locals in restaurants quaffing raki and the (variable quality) local wine. When I was there a relatively short trip across the Sea of Marmara to Bursa found a much more "traditional" culture, women in headscarves, etc. (And the tomb of Osman Ghazi and some nice mosques, Bursa was the capital of the Osmanli state before they captured Constantinople). They need to get tourism sorted out, they could make much more of the land walls and all the Byzantine churches (some turned into mosques) and they could make much more of the Crimean era British military hospital at Kadikoy, although admittedly it is still a functioning barracks.

  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    SeanT said:

    The nicest town on the Riviera is Menton, as any fule kno.

    Tho, having recently spent ten days swanning around the Aeolians and points south, I'd say that Sicily is nicer and more interesting than anywhere in France. The food is almost as good, the climate is much kinder, the tourists are fewer (except in total honeypots like Panarea), the history is grander, and, of course, Italians are amiable and charming, in stark contrast to the French.

    I also had the prettiest breakfast in history, in Taormina Mara, at the Sant'Andrea. I even took a photo.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywncHxCIAAgr9l.jpg

    Could only be improved by some loving company.
    You will be glad to know I am, at present, stepping out with a Special Police Constable (Female) - half my age. Her beat, by sheer coincidence, is Camden and Primrose Hill.

    She is joining me for some of my jaunts, local crime permitting.
    Good stuff. Your lonely breakfast in a beautiful setting looked horribly melancholy.

    Half your age though, let go of your youth and embrace your middle agedness will you? Like you embraced your posho Tory establishmentness.
  • @Nigel4England

    Not been to Sicily but have had several hols in Sardinia and it has never disappointed.

    It's not expensive. Can be windy though at certain times of the year.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    Is there some kind of psychology going on here? Predicting the worst so you don't end up disappointed. That would have to be the most inept party conference ever. Can't believe it.
  • I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.

    You're joking surely TSE?

    Not long to wait now!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Argh! I'm about to take off, and previously when I was airborne we had three crossover polls in a sigle day!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    RobD said:

    Argh! I'm about to take off, and previously when I was airborne we had three crossover polls in a sigle day!

    You have 4 minutes to hold out
  • @Nigel4England

    Not been to Sicily but have had several hols in Sardinia and it has never disappointed.

    It's not expensive. Can be windy though at certain times of the year.

    Thanks for the advice everyone, I shall decide soon but will definitely go to one or the other.

    I will definitely spend more time in Cornwall next year, at least six weeks and hopefully longer, and will get back to the Amalfi coast one day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cough. Yougov is late.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Breaking: Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50%
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50%
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Comfortable hold for Labour in Heywood and Middleton.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Safe Labour seat, I told you so:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 48s48 seconds ago
    Breaking: Survation/Sun poll tonight – UKIP vote surges tenfold in Heywood & Middleton by-election to 31%, Lab on 50% http://bit.ly/1uh3m1p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Grandiose said:

    RobD said:

    Argh! I'm about to take off, and previously when I was airborne we had three crossover polls in a sigle day!

    You have 4 minutes to hold out
    Taxiing to the runway!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ukip can't make up that gap, can they?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Indeed. UKIP slightly better than expected, but the Labour by-election pattern in the NW holds.

    Labour are home and dry up there, not just in the by-election but in 2015
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    So Sun trys to spin big likely win 4 Lab in Hetwood and Middleton as a disaster for Ed
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Breaking: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34% http://bit.ly/1uh32jf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Artist said:

    Comfortable hold for Labour in Heywood and Middleton.

    I wouldn't be so sure, they should hold on but it will be closer than this poll suggests.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Crossover ! CON 35%, LAB 34 yougov breaking
  • Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 43s44 seconds ago
    Breaking: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34% http://bit.ly/1uh32jf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT Yes, Sicily looks beautiful, especially with the view of the hills and the sea, was in Tuscany in the summer but need to venture further south, presumably the Mafia tend to keep themselves to themselves unless you annoy them

    The Mafia has zero interest in tourists (apart from gouging the local companies that keep tourists happy). If anything the Mafia keep street crime to a relative minimum in Sicily, because it is in their interest to keep the punters coming - and buying the pizza and gelati from which the Mafia take a cut.

    Naples, run by the much more ruthless, industrial Camorra, or truly benighted Calabria - misgoverned by the cruel and despotic 'Ndrangheta - present a stark contrast.

    Sicily is pretty safe. Safer than southern Spain, or indeed France, I'd say. The traffic is mad, of course.
    I'm fond of Naples. It's filthy and chaotic, but full of beautiful buildings, interesting museums, good restaurants, excellent tailors and cobblers, and very cheap. Of course, there are those narrow alleyways that you *must* avoid at night. And, it's close to the Amalfi coast, Capri, Ischia, and Pompeii.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Excellent.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Congrats to the Tories on another 5 years in government.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Basil gets to put the goalposts down for 24 hours. Normal service to resume tomorrow.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Crossover ! CON 35%, LAB 34 yougov breaking

    Yeap it finally came.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Crossover do some people finally get paid out on Crossover poll?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 58s58 seconds ago
    …Cameron’s lead over Miliband as best PM now 21 points; 40% v 19%. Biggest gap since February 2012 http://bit.ly/1uh32jf
  • Pong said:

    Ukip can't make up that gap, can they?

    Wouldn't have thought so, Pong, but a good second and a win in Clacton would be a good nite's work for them.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    British Bill of Rights to be announced tomorrow, of course.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Dan Hodges RULES OK !!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Tories take narrow lead for first time since March 2012; CON 35%, LAB 34%@tnewtondunn
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    31% for UKIP is damn good.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Interesting to consider how big the tory lead would be were it not for UKIP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Easy win in Heywood then, a bridge too far for UKIP unfortunately. 'More Tory than the Tories' will continue to have leg as they are, despite that massive increase, easily seen off in Labour territory. Hell, see that repeated in other Labour seats and their seat win to popular vote percentage will be even better than usual.

    Now the question for me is, will the Tories lose their deposit, and can the LDs possibly get lower than 2%.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    Congrats to the Tories on another 5 years in government.

    It's one poll, in the middle of conference season. Let's have a look in a month's time.

    If David Cameron has anyone to thank for this polling bump, he might want to think about thanking Nigel Farage, who in his determination to upstage the Tory party conference ensured that quite a few more people were paying attention to it than would usually be the case.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sean_F said:

    31% for UKIP is damn good.

    Not good enough
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Everyone mutter quietly about conference bounces.

    BUT YELL CROSSOVER!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Speedy Well, as we were saying last night...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    As wiser heads predicted, the hard won economic competence ratings means the Tories are trusted to deliver tax cuts despite them being dated a for few years away. Labour = fucked.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Full poll:
    The Staggers ‏@TheStaggers 37s37 seconds ago
    New Sun/YouGov poll: Con 35% (+4), Lab 34% (-4), Ukip 14% (-1), Lib Dems 6% (-1). http://bit.ly/1uh32jf

    Not much change from others, this is a clear Labour to Tory thing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Sean_F said:

    31% for UKIP is damn good.

    Not good enough
    Exactly and completely confirms the 'go to bed with nige and wake up with rED' meme.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG LAB 319 CON 291 LD 11 EICIPM
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Well, as we were saying last night...

    I'm still holding for Monday.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    How long before Mark Senior flaps about the weightings?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Grandiose said:

    British Bill of Rights to be announced tomorrow, of course.

    As opposed to the Bill of Rights we already have of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Though Tories should bear in mind yougov's even more sensational Yougov indyref poll before they get too carried away, nonetheless a huge boost for Cameron and a big blow to Miliband
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited October 2014
    I predict in a week, back to 3-4 point lead for Labour....

    The thing I think it does show, actually I think any lead is very soft, and I wouldn't be surprised if come the GE we end up with 34/36 or 35/35, but I can't see how the Tories are going to get to that 6+% lead they need (especially as Tories are still a total write off Scotland and North East) and UKIP will hoover up a decent % of right wing votes.
  • felix said:

    Interesting to consider how big the tory lead would be were it not for UKIP.

    add 2 to 4 points
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Heywood and Middleton might be the first <10% gain for Labour in the NW in a by election in this Parliament.

    And 34% is July 2010 polling, with one example in between, which occurred during the Euro 2014 failure.

    The test is whether Labour stay at 34.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    corporeal said:

    Grandiose said:

    British Bill of Rights to be announced tomorrow, of course.

    As opposed to the Bill of Rights we already have of course.
    Well, quite.

    But that does pre-date 1707.
  • New Thread
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Who are these people continuing to turn away from the LDs when 6 months ago they were still willing to support them?
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    And after the LibDem Conference. the LibDems will have a 50% lead and "will form the next Government" Giggles uncontrollably.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Speedy said:

    Full poll:
    The Staggers ‏@TheStaggers 37s37 seconds ago
    New Sun/YouGov poll: Con 35% (+4), Lab 34% (-4), Ukip 14% (-1), Lib Dems 6% (-1). http://bit.ly/1uh32jf

    Not much change from others, this is a clear Labour to Tory thing.

    I could have sworn all the Labour (except SO, BenM and one or two others) were talking about this only appealing to UKIP, putting Lab and LibDems off the Tory party.

    Were they wrong? Why and how has all this rightism appealed to 4 points of the Labour solid immoveable 35+?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Tonights YG LAB 319 CON 291 LD 11 EICIPM

    LD down to just 11 seats on UNS!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    The narrative at the end of the conference season (and let's face it, the LDs might as well not bother) is that Miliband had a shocker and Cameron got a lot of good coverage. Momentum is everything...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Full yougov details
    CON - 35% (+4)
    LAB - 34% (-4)
    UKIP - 14% (-1)
    LDEM - 6% (-1)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014

    I predict in a week, back to 3-4 point lead for Labour....

    I'm inclined to agree.

    Once the heat is off, the lead goes up.

    The heat won't go off though between budget day and election day.

    I suspect that a lot of those saying they will vote Labour will start looking at the LDs/SNP/Greens/Plaid once they think Labour won't make it.
This discussion has been closed.