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Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com

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  • Britain is now a nasty, shabby loser: a pitiable joke abroad - and cruel, petty and useless at home. Poverty spirals, refugees are treated like animals, the government snubs COP27, the UN and world leaders call us out. Everything is broken. Brexit broke it

    https://twitter.com/neilmackay/status/1587347181249478658?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ

    Yeah - just look how far down the “Soft Power” index we are….

    https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/global-soft-power-index-2022-usa-bounces-back-better-to-top-of-nation-brand-ranking
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    Religion, both European nations, drinking alcohol for three. Certainly more in common that Syrians - generally not Christian, don't drink alcohol, middle eastern nation.
    Syria ~10% Christian
    Ukraine ~87% Christian (~2% Protestant)
    UK ~46% Christian

    So, the UK is about halfway between Syria and Ukraine in terms of Christianity, slightly closer to Syria. (We've got lots of atheists/agnostics.)
  • Still on for NZ....

    An early attempt to relieve Leondamus of his newly acquired title?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    TOPPING said:

    Thanks. I think it was always eg @isam who spoke (whether of experience or anecdote) of immigrants living 10 to a room and hence able to undercut local workers in terms of wages, etc.

    I think the main issue as you allude to is that if they are illegal they are hardly going to petition the authorities because they are not receiving the minimum wage.

    Which of course means the source of the problem lies elsewhere.
    We were looking around for a new house in West London. One place... On an OK suburban road of semis. The area was on the edge of a nice area and been subsumed by the waves of gentrification.

    Within second of looking at the place, it was quite clear - every room was a dormitory for adults. Two bunk beds per room. A bathroom had been converted into another bedroom by ripping out the bath. The residents were pretty much unable to speak English and were plainly terrified of us.

    There was no fire alarm system, and the doors weren't fire doors. At least one room exited through another room. So a death trap in the event of fire in the wrong place. The wiring was lethal looking.

    I spoke to the estate agent. He was quite unapologetic - he didn't normally do the slum stuff. But this was a great opportunity.

    If you know the area, there are a fair few similar - but they are increasingly being sold up and the occupants sent to the next slum location.

    The garden was full of push bikes for various delivery services - mainly Deliveroo.

    The house was on the market again recently - a superficial paint job after the occupants were evicted, it looked like, from the photos.

    Didn't really speak to the occupants - who were quite definitely illegal immigrants. I'd happily beat the landlord to a pulp, though.
  • Who was telling porkies?

    Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

    He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    Alistair said:

    The deep state has got to him
    As one of the apparently brainiest posters of PB observed - it's "impossible" to guess which of the conflicting stories about this case is likely to be true. Quoting what the FBI say have released about it is a sure sign that one is a gullible libtard, according to some of the PB geniuses.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    A lot was already broken before Brexit. Indeed, communities / services / industries being broken was a key driver for Brexit in a lot of places.
    What was a successful economy in the 1990s was changed into a low pay, low productivity one underpinned by a constant influx of migrants at the bottom.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    An early attempt to relieve Leondamus of his newly acquired title?

    No, Francis was patriotically applying the reverse mockers on our behalf.
  • Nigelb said:

    It's not going to work like that, though.
    Things will move at the pace of growth in supply. I don't think that's going to make more than a marginal difference to anything in the UK.
    I would like to think you are right but the record of the last couple of decades of government doesn't inspire me with hope on that. Certainly in terms of overall energy supply things have not moved at the pace of growth in supply of renewables in spite of us being one of the most aggressive developers of renewables in the world. Instead the Government has chosen to cut back on other energy supplies and so helped to exacerbate the energy shortage we are now experiencing.
  • I love you too Nige ❤️

    Bisous xxx
    Love is something you need to work at mate. All that hatred for "The English" (that uniform, undiverse group) is eating you up. You need to spend less time on here, and maybe realise that people of all countries are just people
  • glwglw Posts: 10,361

    Thanks for this, very enlightening. Shows that the self-haters need to be a little less critical of their fellow countrymen.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying everything is fine, but surveys generally show that the UK is not anti-immigration when compared to most other European countries. Not that I expect anything I post to change Roger's views, for people like him one ill-founded anecdote that matches his prejudices trumps any "numbers" that show him to be wrong.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Thankfully your prediction was a bit off this time.
    Francis endlessly in play predicts English defeats – it's a weird tick he has and it's tiresome.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Syria ~10% Christian
    Ukraine ~87% Christian (~2% Protestant)
    UK ~46% Christian

    So, the UK is about halfway between Syria and Ukraine in terms of Christianity, slightly closer to Syria. (We've got lots of atheists/agnostics.)
    I think that might be in terms of 'are you a Christian?'. In reality we are coming up to Christmas, which is huge in this country as is Easter (to a lesser extent) and the country as a whole has nearly 2000 years of heritage of Christianity. Most people behave in their lives according to a Christian life style, even if they no longer believe in God. I do, for one.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    glw said:

    You come out with rubbish like this, because if fits your ignorant anecdotal view of the UK, and ignore surveys which show it really isn't true.



    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/pg_2019-03-19_views-of-the-eu_0-14/
    One of the things which gives cause for optimism is the size of the immigration-positive vote.

    However, the problem for the Tories (and presumably the reason for their language and approach) is that they are increasingly fishing in that 37% pool.
  • Driver said:

    It's about showing that you're on the right side against Putin, to an extent, isn't it?
    Maybe, but I wouldn't classify that as cultural.
    I'd say the default UK position tends to be not quite as bad as the other side and occasionally not the right side. Iraq started off as against the baddy, but by some magical King Midas in reverse shit we managed to transform ourseves into the wrong side and as a result fucked up the region for decades.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253

    The President of Ukraine is the voice of Paddington Bear.
    That required a google, didn't realise it was literally true (in Ukraine language version). Should we expect a darker Paddington 3 in which the friendly bear has to fight off a much larger, agressive bear?
  • WillG said:

    Russian militias raping grandmothers in Ukraine.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63446508

    Russia is a criminal nation and a criminal culture. The barbarity runs deep. It needs to be broken up and it's constituent parts can start anew.

    Hang on. The ruling elite are responsible for this. I don't believe for a minute that Russian civilians are sat in their apartments cheering the idea of their soldiers torturing and raping. This is the tragedy of this situation - Russians and Ukrainians are so similar.
  • mwadams said:

    One of the things which gives cause for optimism is the size of the immigration-positive vote.

    However, the problem for the Tories (and presumably the reason for their language and approach) is that they are increasingly fishing in that 37% pool.
    I regard myself as a centrist, but I am not sure where I would sit on that survey, because it isn't nuanced enough IMO. I am still of the opinion that an asylum seeker should seek asylum in the first safe country they land in. They should then apply for economic migrant status to move to another, and international agreements could be reached to ensure that "frontline" countries don't have to take all.

    With respect to immigration generally, I would say we probably need more to grow economically, but those are migrants that offer an economic gain (often EU origin). As I say, it is nuanced.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited November 2022
    Lula partially blaming the West for the war in Ukraine isn't helpful, to put it mildly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    I would like to think you are right but the record of the last couple of decades of government doesn't inspire me with hope on that. Certainly in terms of overall energy supply things have not moved at the pace of growth in supply of renewables in spite of us being one of the most aggressive developers of renewables in the world. Instead the Government has chosen to cut back on other energy supplies and so helped to exacerbate the energy shortage we are now experiencing.

    I would like to think you are right but the record of the last couple of decades of government doesn't inspire me with hope on that. Certainly in terms of overall energy supply things have not moved at the pace of growth in supply of renewables in spite of us being one of the most aggressive developers of renewables in the world. Instead the Government has chosen to cut back on other energy supplies and so helped to exacerbate the energy shortage we are now experiencing.
    The world wide shortage of batteries is already effecting all manufacturers - which is why so many are investing in factories measured by the acre to build them.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited November 2022

    Hang on. The ruling elite are responsible for this. I don't believe for a minute that Russian civilians are sat in their apartments cheering the idea of their soldiers torturing and raping. This is the tragedy of this situation - Russians and Ukrainians are so similar.
    The "ruling elite" aren't the ones actually raping, though, are they?

    It's a truism that rulers can only do things by getting other people to do their bidding - for example, the NKVD/KGB/FSB wouldn't have got/get anywhere without willing informants. And "I was only following orders" hasn't been a valid excuse for at least 75 years.
  • And Brexit was shite, but on the whole, Britain is not *the* best, but is still one of the best countries to live in the world by a huge number of measures.
    Sure. On every objective measure that is correct. But for millions of Brits it doesn't feel like that, and they don't feel better when someone points it out. It is the structural inequality in this country that is our problem - we have riches and safety that others only dream of. But allow so many to live in crime-ridden poverty traps.
  • I think that might be in terms of 'are you a Christian?'. In reality we are coming up to Christmas, which is huge in this country as is Easter (to a lesser extent) and the country as a whole has nearly 2000 years of heritage of Christianity. Most people behave in their lives according to a Christian life style, even if they no longer believe in God. I do, for one.
    I salute your dedication to the washing of beggars' feet.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,310
    Taz said:

    Aston Martin are just rebadged Fords.
    Ford have not had anything to do with AM since 2007. Some of the older engines share some internal architecture with ancient Ford engines like the Duratec V6. Now they are just a marketing operation that relies on Mercedes powertrains and electronics.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    I think that might be in terms of 'are you a Christian?'. In reality we are coming up to Christmas, which is huge in this country as is Easter (to a lesser extent) and the country as a whole has nearly 2000 years of heritage of Christianity. Most people behave in their lives according to a Christian life style, even if they no longer believe in God. I do, for one.
    While it is clearly ridiculous to try to claim the UK is religiously equidistant between Ukraine and Syria, differing support is nothing to do with race or religion. The British were hugely supportive of Hong Kongers, which completely undermines the "racist" argument of those that hate Britain. The difference is that Ukrainians and Hong Kongers believe democracy and egalitarianism. Meanwhile Syrians and Iraqis have been hotbeds of extremism and intolerance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    Maybe, but I wouldn't classify that as cultural.
    I'd say the default UK position tends to be not quite as bad as the other side and occasionally not the right side. Iraq started off as against the baddy, but by some magical King Midas in reverse shit we managed to transform ourseves into the wrong side and as a result fucked up the region for decades.
    There is definitely a cultural thing - Ukraine aspires to be a European country. The Ukrainians I have worked with are generally very much Eastern Europeans. A Polish friend, just this weekend, commented that the Ukrainians seemed like close relatives to him - outlook, mindset.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,361
    mwadams said:

    One of the things which gives cause for optimism is the size of the immigration-positive vote.

    However, the problem for the Tories (and presumably the reason for their language and approach) is that they are increasingly fishing in that 37% pool.

    Of course you can't really boil down something as complex as migration to a single question, and yes opinion varies greatly. I'm not even saying that the UK's numbers are "good". My beef is that as good/bad as the migration issue is in the UK the evidence from surveys suggests that it is a lot worse elsewhere.

    For what it's worth I didn't go looking for good data, that's the first appropriate survey from a reputable organisation I found. I'm fairly confident other surveys show a similar pattern.

    It's also worth noting that the big survey from the Tony Blair think tank about the British view of our relationship with the EU showed that broadly people do not want an immigration system that favours EU citizens. People want a "fair" system that works for all. So the idea that we in the UK prefer certain migrants doesn't seem particularly strong.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,442
    glw said:

    You come out with rubbish like this, because if fits your ignorant anecdotal view of the UK, and ignore surveys which show it really isn't true.



    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/pg_2019-03-19_views-of-the-eu_0-14/
    That makes my point doesn't it? The British aren't all like that. That's the PB perception that Suella is a great vote winner for the Tories is misplaced. If I can quote my own post

    "None of this looks good for the government. The racists are asking themselves If this lot can't even keep the foreigners out what are they good at? And though there's a feeling (certainly on PB ) that hate of 'the other' goes down well with Tory voters there are more than a few who are repulsed by it."

    The figures you show which I hadn't seen bear this out. 37% don't want any 16% want more the rest have no view. So assuming the 37% aren't all Tory it looks like I was about right
  • WillG said:

    What was a successful economy in the 1990s was changed into a low pay, low productivity one underpinned by a constant influx of migrants at the bottom.
    Successful for whom? I remember that nice Mr Lilley attacking scroungers and single mums and doleys. And seeing kids educated in portacabins or classrooms where a steel endoskeleton had been installed to stop the roof collapsing on them. The structural inequalities go back further than that - we did a lot of national rebuilding post war, but it all started to fall apart in the 1970s.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Lol. Such a silly post from a political numbskull. I can imagine your fat ugly bald head almost exploding with anger. Alex Salmond, like Nick Griffin, attracts political illiterates; those of low education, low intellect, low achievement, often with extreme prejudiced and anger management problems. You clearly tick all of these boxes.

    Anyone who frequents this site seeing you trying to project your fascism onto a centrist, will just further realise what a thick idiot you are.
    Watch that blood pressure Adolf,
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Selebian said:

    That required a google, didn't realise it was literally true (in Ukraine language version). Should we expect a darker Paddington 3 in which the friendly bear has to fight off a much larger, agressive bear?
    Paddington 3: Rwanda and back again.

    Follow Paddington's adventures as he falls victim to Suella's dream to deport him to Africa and how Albanians traffick him back to a Dover, where he struggles with tiny marmalade jars in a 4 star hotel.
  • glw said:

    Of course you can't really boil down something as complex as migration to a single question, and yes opinion varies greatly. I'm not even saying that the UK's numbers are "good". My beef is that as good/bad as the migration issue is in the UK the evidence from surveys suggests that it is a lot worse elsewhere.

    For what it's worth I didn't go looking for good data, that's the first appropriate survey from a reputable organisation I found. I'm fairly confident other surveys show a similar pattern.

    It's also worth noting that the big survey from the Tony Blair think tank about the British view of our relationship with the EU showed that broadly people do not want an immigration system that favours EU citizens. People want a "fair" system that works for all. So the idea that we in the UK prefer certain migrants doesn't seem particularly strong.
    Indeed, while racist prats like Farage made dicks of themselves over that infamous poster, sensible Brexiteers were making an open and liberal case for fairer migration that didn't discriminate against eg Commonwealth nationals in favour of European ones.

    Some racists during the referendum took the view, sometimes expressed on here, that EU migration being European was "good" migration and that migration from Pakistan/India etc was "bad" migration that people didn't want.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Roger said:

    That makes my point doesn't it? The British aren't all like that. That's the PB perception that Suella is a great vote winner for the Tories is misplaced. If I can quote my own post

    "None of this looks good for the government. The racists are asking themselves If this lot can't even keep the foreigners out what are they good at? And though there's a feeling (certainly on PB ) that hate of 'the other' goes down well with Tory voters there are more than a few who are repulsed by it."

    The figures you show which I hadn't seen bear this out. 37% don't want any 16% want more the rest have no view. So assuming the 37% aren't all Tory it looks like I was about right
    Your comment was "Farage's poster told the the story about our view on immigrants and asylum seekers more succinctly than any text. Fortunately not everyone thinks like Farage though reading PB it isn't obvious" (copied from the quote).

    It's clear that the majority view is not Faragian - you mischaracterising people who say "about the same" as "having no view" is egregious.
  • Roger said:

    That makes my point doesn't it? The British aren't all like that. That's the PB perception that Suella is a great vote winner for the Tories is misplaced. If I can quote my own post

    "None of this looks good for the government. The racists are asking themselves If this lot can't even keep the foreigners out what are they good at? And though there's a feeling (certainly on PB ) that hate of 'the other' goes down well with Tory voters there are more than a few who are repulsed by it."

    The figures you show which I hadn't seen bear this out. 37% don't want any 16% want more the rest have no view. So assuming the 37% aren't all Tory it looks like I was about right
    I am in favour of controlled immigration and realise that it is a failing policy area. I think you are a bit of a bigot yourself if you make the simplistic assumption that all people who would like to see less immigration are therefore all racists
  • Driver said:

    The "ruling elite" aren't the ones actually raping, though, are they?

    It's a truism that rulers can only do things by getting other people to do their bidding - for example, the NKVD/KGB/FSB wouldn't have got/get anywhere without willing informants. And "I was only following orders" hasn't been a valid excuse for at least 75 years.
    Sure. But I wasn't responding about the criminal "soldiers", only about the notion that ordinary Russians are part of a "criminal nation and a criminal culture". When I streamed Russian TV waiting for one of the Putin rallies there were TV adverts selling the same old shit we have to the same old people who look like us and have the same lives and desires and experiences. There is no evil empire, and there never was. Just people being lied to by savages hoping to turn people into supporters of savagery.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    This week @ScotParl will attend the Nordic Council for the first time. It’s a welcome opportunity to strengthen ties with the Nordic countries whose parliaments are similar in size and structure to ours.

    Find out more👇
    ow.ly/Z9YB50LpKtF


    https://twitter.com/poscotparl/status/1587123503811084288?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ

    Good news
  • We were looking around for a new house in West London. One place... On an OK suburban road of semis. The area was on the edge of a nice area and been subsumed by the waves of gentrification.

    Within second of looking at the place, it was quite clear - every room was a dormitory for adults. Two bunk beds per room. A bathroom had been converted into another bedroom by ripping out the bath. The residents were pretty much unable to speak English and were plainly terrified of us.

    There was no fire alarm system, and the doors weren't fire doors. At least one room exited through another room. So a death trap in the event of fire in the wrong place. The wiring was lethal looking.

    I spoke to the estate agent. He was quite unapologetic - he didn't normally do the slum stuff. But this was a great opportunity.

    If you know the area, there are a fair few similar - but they are increasingly being sold up and the occupants sent to the next slum location.

    The garden was full of push bikes for various delivery services - mainly Deliveroo.

    The house was on the market again recently - a superficial paint job after the occupants were evicted, it looked like, from the photos.

    Didn't really speak to the occupants - who were quite definitely illegal immigrants. I'd happily beat the landlord to a pulp, though.
    Young illegals in the black economy are contributing to our national wealth by dint of their slave labour. What will happen to them in the future? No money, no qualifications, no benefits, no healthcare and, in the end, no energy to pedal a bike.
  • malcolmg said:

    Watch that blood pressure Adolf,
    Oh dear, you really are so thick that I would feel sorry for you if you were not such a prejudiced twat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686

    Hang on. The ruling elite are responsible for this. I don't believe for a minute that Russian civilians are sat in their apartments cheering the idea of their soldiers torturing and raping. This is the tragedy of this situation - Russians and Ukrainians are so similar.
    A glance at the sort of stuff aired on Russian TV suggests that's not entirely true.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,361
    edited November 2022

    I regard myself as a centrist, but I am not sure where I would sit on that survey, because it isn't nuanced enough IMO. I am still of the opinion that an asylum seeker should seek asylum in the first safe country they land in. They should then apply for economic migrant status to move to another, and international agreements could be reached to ensure that "frontline" countries don't have to take all.

    With respect to immigration generally, I would say we probably need more to grow economically, but those are migrants that offer an economic gain (often EU origin). As I say, it is nuanced.

    I think a large part of what provokes upset and anger isn't immigration per se, but the belief that some people are gaming the system, or that the system isn't fair. That really seems to stir up people, because we have this national self-image, which might not even be all that true, that we are very much in favour of fairness. So we almost see anything unfair as a national insult.

    In other countries immigration related unhappiness might come down to things like the economic factors in poorer countries, or integration in countries with strong views about national identity, like language and religion. On the whole those seem to be lesser factors in the UK, but the "fairness" aspect makes people furious.
  • There is definitely a cultural thing - Ukraine aspires to be a European country. The Ukrainians I have worked with are generally very much Eastern Europeans. A Polish friend, just this weekend, commented that the Ukrainians seemed like close relatives to him - outlook, mindset.
    The chat was specifically about UK > UKR.
    I can certaiinly see the cultural connections between Poland and Ukraine, and why Ukrainians would yearn to be part of the EU, for pragmatic reasons as much as anything.
    I tend to be suspicious of the 'we're like close relatives' patter, partly because it's similar to the line that the 'we're all Russo slavs' lads come out with.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Successful for whom? I remember that nice Mr Lilley attacking scroungers and single mums and doleys. And seeing kids educated in portacabins or classrooms where a steel endoskeleton had been installed to stop the roof collapsing on them. The structural inequalities go back further than that - we did a lot of national rebuilding post war, but it all started to fall apart in the 1970s.
    If you look at unemployment and pay growth, most people. The UK's Gini coefficient fell 1990-1997 and then began climbing again afterwards.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited November 2022

    Britain is now a nasty, shabby loser: a pitiable joke abroad - and cruel, petty and useless at home. Poverty spirals, refugees are treated like animals, the government snubs COP27, the UN and world leaders call us out. Everything is broken. Brexit broke it

    https://twitter.com/neilmackay/status/1587347181249478658?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ

    This is the sort of hyperbolic pessimism I can’t stand.

    Certainly this country can do better in many ways. Certainly this country has not been well-run as of late. And yes I believe Brexit was a mistake. But there is lots to be proud of in this country. This constant self-flagelation, where we have to pretend that we are living in a hellhole mocked, scorned and hated by the rest of the world, and somehow need to feel bad and sorry about it, needs to stop if we are going to get out of our current problems.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    So says a pathetic Anglophobe, reposted by another Anglophobe loser, who is a pitiable joke on this site, who so hates his own country that he lives in another one, and has no friends so spends his whole time doing nothing else than posting hate filled shite online
    Poor old Adolf Foreskin, ranting and raving his bigotry against Scots. What a sadsack.
    You will do yourself an injury Adolf , fat gammony goosesteppers should be more careful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    Young illegals in the black economy are contributing to our national wealth by dint of their slave labour. What will happen to them in the future? No money, no qualifications, no benefits, no healthcare and, in the end, no energy to pedal a bike.
    Yes, but don't worry. We are more evil than doing this -

    image
  • Sure. But I wasn't responding about the criminal "soldiers", only about the notion that ordinary Russians are part of a "criminal nation and a criminal culture". When I streamed Russian TV waiting for one of the Putin rallies there were TV adverts selling the same old shit we have to the same old people who look like us and have the same lives and desires and experiences. There is no evil empire, and there never was. Just people being lied to by savages hoping to turn people into supporters of savagery.
    Russia and China both are very evil empires.

    Yes most of the people in those empires may have no desire to do evil, but that's true of most empires throughout history. The ordinary people suffer for the evil actions of their leaders and generally want little more than 'bread and circuses'.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Jonathan said:

    Paddington 3: Rwanda and back again.

    Follow Paddington's adventures as he falls victim to Suella's dream to deport him to Africa and how Albanians traffick him back to a Dover, where he struggles with tiny marmalade jars in a 4 star hotel.
    Paddington Bear’s visa status is never explained in the books.

    Also, in Asterix in Britain, Asterix and Obelix (and Dogmatix) cross the Channel in a small boat, avoiding the authorities. Would Suella approve?

  • glwglw Posts: 10,361
    Roger said:

    That makes my point doesn't it? The British aren't all like that. That's the PB perception that Suella is a great vote winner for the Tories is misplaced. If I can quote my own post

    "None of this looks good for the government. The racists are asking themselves If this lot can't even keep the foreigners out what are they good at? And though there's a feeling (certainly on PB ) that hate of 'the other' goes down well with Tory voters there are more than a few who are repulsed by it."

    The figures you show which I hadn't seen bear this out. 37% don't want any 16% want more the rest have no view. So assuming the 37% aren't all Tory it looks like I was about right
    You said: "Farage's poster told the the story about our view on immigrants and asylum seekers more succinctly than any text."

    No you were not right. You don't even seem to be capable of comprehending your own words.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    I salute your dedication to the washing of beggars' feet.
    Is that the only Christian behaviour you can think of?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Sure. But I wasn't responding about the criminal "soldiers", only about the notion that ordinary Russians are part of a "criminal nation and a criminal culture". When I streamed Russian TV waiting for one of the Putin rallies there were TV adverts selling the same old shit we have to the same old people who look like us and have the same lives and desires and experiences. There is no evil empire, and there never was. Just people being lied to by savages hoping to turn people into supporters of savagery.
    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state where you can't get access to information like North Korea. Putin achieved and maintained power through nationalist shtick, complete with open beating of gay people on the streets and sending women's rights activists to Siberia. These things were well publicized in Russia because it made him more popular. Russian people lapped up the idea of Russia domineering its neighbours. The culture needs a complete reset, like Germany post-1945.
  • Paddington Bear’s visa status is never explained in the books.

    Also, in Asterix in Britain, Asterix and Obelix (and Dogmatix) cross the Channel in a small boat, avoiding the authorities. Would Suella approve?

    No doubt she'd find it galling.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    There is a world of difference between dividends and expected future dividends.

    Past dividends do nothing to aid future dividends happening, which is why growth is valued. Growth improves future dividends more than past dividends do.
    What are you talking about past dividends? For a DDM the clue is in the name.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Nigelb said:

    I doubt that she's a drunk, but she's certainly an unfit Home Secretary.
    Even if she was a drunk she woudl be an improvement on the dross that is the Cabinet
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Paddington Bear’s visa status is never explained in the books.

    Also, in Asterix in Britain, Asterix and Obelix (and Dogmatix) cross the Channel in a small boat, avoiding the authorities. Would Suella approve?

    I'm more worried about the casual acceptance of a talking bear tbh. Should at least make the evening news.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    kamski said:

    As one of the apparently brainiest posters of PB observed - it's "impossible" to guess which of the conflicting stories about this case is likely to be true. Quoting what the FBI say have released about it is a sure sign that one is a gullible libtard, according to some of the PB geniuses.

    I never referenced any of the Musk-type theories

    My focus was on the bizarrely blurred picture of the miscreant. If you believed the early reports, the intruder was a straight down the line MAGA-Trump QAnon antisemite

    And yet


    “While reports indicate that DePape was an unhinged, far-right conspiracy theorist, neighbors noted he and Taub's politics were much more muddied.

    They told Shellenberger that the couple had Black Live Matter flags and an LGBT rainbow flag outside their home, but also said that any liberal leanings appeared to be shallow and performative. “

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11373605/Paul-Pelosis-alleged-attackers-nudist-ex-lover-reveals-mentally-ill-long-time.html

    He has also been a nudist activist and a Green Party member. Only later adopting the far right memes

    I always wondered where Martin Day went
  • malcolmg said:

    Poor old Adolf Foreskin, ranting and raving his bigotry against Scots. What a sadsack.
    You will do yourself an injury Adolf , fat gammony goosesteppers should be more careful.
    I have Scots in my family dickhead. I do not have bigotry toward any person of Scottish heritage, I leave bigotry to sad thickos such as yourself and @StuartDickson and your small minded and unconcealed Anglophobia. You are a silly stupid, angry little man that is so intensely moronic that you are still a bumlicking follower of a man so vile that he was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest". And you think this is someone worthy of following? Only someone with fascist tendencies or intense immorality or stupidity could want to follow someone like that. Fortunately for Salmond there are people like yourself who have all three

    Now go back to ranting about how unfair it is that you got no education and watch out for your wife when she comes back from the bingo and screams at you for being such a sad loser.
  • Nigelb said:

    A glance at the sort of stuff aired on Russian TV suggests that's not entirely true.
    And the behaviour of some Russian tourists abroad…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Is that the only Christian behaviour you can think of?
    If you can turn water into wine PM me
  • malcolmg said:

    Even if she was a drunk she woudl be an improvement on the dross that is the Cabinet
    And you think someone as uneducated and generally thick as you is able to pass judgement? lol.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I'm more worried about the casual acceptance of a talking bear tbh. Should at least make the evening news.
    Depends what the bear says and whether it is in the cabinet.
  • TOPPING said:

    What are you talking about past dividends? For a DDM the clue is in the name.
    Because you appear to be conflating the two.

    Most DDM models are typically flawed by paying too much attention to past dividends, which is the fallacy you made by saying that dividends can be manipulated by management or asking what the dividend payout ratio of Google is.

    Google in the future will pay dividends, the fact that it isn't yet is neither here nor there in calculating its DDM if you do it properly. If you've modelled zero dividends for Alphabet, your model is borked.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    edited November 2022

    If you can turn water into wine PM me
    I can, just need some fruit, some sugar, a bit of yeast and time. Besides, I think that is some elite level Christianing to be able to do that.
  • Leon said:


    I never referenced any of the Musk-type theories

    My focus was on the bizarrely blurred picture of the miscreant. If you believed the early reports, the intruder was a straight down the line MAGA-Trump QAnon antisemite

    And yet


    “While reports indicate that DePape was an unhinged, far-right conspiracy theorist, neighbors noted he and Taub's politics were much more muddied.

    They told Shellenberger that the couple had Black Live Matter flags and an LGBT rainbow flag outside their home, but also said that any liberal leanings appeared to be shallow and performative. “

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11373605/Paul-Pelosis-alleged-attackers-nudist-ex-lover-reveals-mentally-ill-long-time.html

    He has also been a nudist activist and a Green Party member. Only later adopting the far right memes

    I always wondered where Martin Day went
    That's not muddied, unless you're trying to make it muddied. QAnon/Trump appeals to loons across the spectrum. Its pure horseshoe theory.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Because you appear to be conflating the two.

    Most DDM models are typically flawed by paying too much attention to past dividends, which is the fallacy you made by saying that dividends can be manipulated by management or asking what the dividend payout ratio of Google is.

    Google in the future will pay dividends, the fact that it isn't yet is neither here nor there in calculating its DDM if you do it properly. If you've modelled zero dividends for Alphabet, your model is borked.
    You have answered your own question. Stock analysis is a very imprecise science and DDM models are at the extreme end of imprecision - they can be flawed in many ways including weighting past dividends as you note and hence it is a huge call on management's longevity and policy, on cashflows, and all else. Which of course as an analyst you are trying to work out but it is a distraction.

    And as I said, distrusted by much of the investment analysis community.

    We started this with BP's share buybacks. An activity that raises the eyebrows of analysts.
  • It's much more fun on the NEW THREAD.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    moonshine said:

    Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

    During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

    Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

    Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

    Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

    I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

    What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    It's much more fun on the NEW THREAD.

    Yes, I've learnt all about Incy Wincy Spider (genuinely new to me).
  • New thread.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Who was telling porkies?

    Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

    He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

    Does there now need to be an investigation in where these allegations came from in the first place?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Who was telling porkies?

    Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

    He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

    Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,442
    mwadams said:

    One of the things which gives cause for optimism is the size of the immigration-positive vote.

    However, the problem for the Tories (and presumably the reason for their language and approach) is that they are increasingly fishing in that 37% pool.
    Surely what that poll tells you that is relevant to this morning's discussion is that all those who think Suella/Sunak have tapped a goldmine (nearly all PB Tories who posted earlier) are wrong.

    They made the assumption that Tories=Leavers=anti immigrant and therefore what she is doing is preaching to the choir and the more blood and thunder she makes it the louder the choir sings

    This poll (and yours truly!) suggest that is probably bullshit
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,442

    Yeah - just look how far down the “Soft Power” index we are….

    https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/global-soft-power-index-2022-usa-bounces-back-better-to-top-of-nation-brand-ranking
    You have a graph for every occasion. All that show the UK or England ahead. It's as well there are so many varied ones around.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ford have not had anything to do with AM since 2007. Some of the older engines share some internal architecture with ancient Ford engines like the Duratec V6. Now they are just a marketing operation that relies on Mercedes powertrains and electronics.
    I was being a little facetious from my time at Gaydon.

    There was certainly shared components a few years after.

    I just used to find it amusing people were buying a premium vehicle that was a reskinned Ford.

    Mercedes seem to have a lot of fingers in many pies. They were involved with that heap of crap Infinite. The premium Nissan brand. Didn’t last long.
  • moonshine said:

    Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

    During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

    Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

    Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

    Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

    Point of order, you don't reach a crescendo - crescendo is the process of reaching a peak/summit
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Yeah - just look how far down the “Soft Power” index we are….

    https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/global-soft-power-index-2022-usa-bounces-back-better-to-top-of-nation-brand-ranking
    Is that "Soft in the Head"
This discussion has been closed.