Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Kinnock was not ruined by the media. He was a windbag and a bore. Please watch him on HIGNFY and ask yourself how it was that anyone thought that such a pillock could be PM (well prior to Johnson anyway!)
(Windbag) that was original, all sorts of people become P.M. who are not up to it, Johnson, Truss, Corbyn nearly got there, I would certainly put him above those three
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).
We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.
How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?
I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.
There is a real loss in losing daily newspapers with large circulation and a collective monopoly on current comment and news. Both the 24 hour news cycle and the internet (these of course are linked events) have destroyed the model.
It loses a whole culture of tens of millions imbibing a culture in common ways every morning. And there is nothing that quite replaces newspaper with writing on it, print coming off on your fingers. But newspapers are in a sense out of date as they are printed and distributed. And of course Guardian online is free (as is much of the FT if you work around).
My compromise is to subscribe to the print edition of the Economist for slower news and comment, and online for the 24 hour cycle.
But the only thing I miss about London days and commuting etc is the immediacy of newsprint, and reading the Times in pre -Murdoch days.
I remember the joy of arriving back at Brixton tube station late at night to find the first editions of tomorrow's papers already available. A completely alien world now.
Similarly, the last "PInk Un", in Portsmouth, ended this year. They were killed off by a combination of football matches no longer all starting at 3.00 p.m. on a Saturday and the introduciton of all-day pub hours.
And, even more critically, live scores on everyone's phones - the same thing that led the BBC, almost inconceivably, to drop the classified results from Sports Report.
They've dropped the classified. But the presenter deals with each league in turn. And runs through all the results in a non-systematic way anyway. So. You get all the scores. Over an hour. In an unstructured fashion. The worst of all possibilities.
The classified football results - radio and Grandstand, 5 pm - was all about the pools industry, now declined out of sight. The results were read at the speed, in the order, and the tone of voice so that punters could all at the same time check their coupon. real money hung on obscure results. On telly the visuals showed (1,2,X) wehether it was home, away or draw.
Like most lost things the pools world is chronicled in Philip Larkin, Mr Bleaney in this case, who 'kept on plugging at the four aways'.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Kinnock was not ruined by the media. He was a windbag and a bore. Please watch him on HIGNFY and ask yourself how it was that anyone thought that such a pillock could be PM (well prior to Johnson anyway!)
(Windbag) that was original, all sorts of people become P.M. who are not up to it, Johnson, Truss, Corbyn nearly got there, I would certainly put him above those three
It is a low bar. You have just proved my point. He was shit.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
That flurry of Tory Unionists lauding Labour as the last, great hope for the Union didn’t last long.
During the last 10 years, whenever I have described Labour as “the final bastion of the Union” it has sent Mini Franco on a furious rant about how insignificant SLab are and how mighty the SCon battleship is. Then, as soon as the SCon showed signs of being in the 10% zone and SLab nudging the high 20s, he entirely switched into yabooing about how fantastic the Sarwar team is.
O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).
We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery. fore How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?
I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.
Some newspapers have the normal website vs pretend paper format option, and the latter is what you want. The National is an example, for instance. In that case when you go to the main website there is a blue button labelled "Digital Edition" and you press that to go to the pretend paper format. (Rather illogical as both the website format and the pretend paper options are both digital, but ...). You might have to poke around for your preferred example ...
You read the National? That is true dedication to the cause, that is. Respect.
Sarky!
Amongst others ... but I'd rather have the Scotsman and Herald of old, admittedly so last century now.
Yes, they were both quality reads once upon a time but are now little more than advertising pamphlets put together by a skeleton staff. It is sad.
I have told this story before but when I was a trainee I came across a copy of the Evening Telegraph in a set of title deeds which showed that the property had been repossessed and then sold by a bond holder before the first world war. The paper itself was remarkable with extended coverage of the comings and goings of the Austria-Hungarian court in Vienna and at least 6 pages of international news. What people going home on the tram to Lochee after a day in the Jute mills made of it heaven only knows but the international businesses based in Dundee in those times clearly created a demand for foreign news that is almost inconceivable today.
My Grandparents took the Telegraph because it used to not rely on the wire services, but rather had its own correspondents on the ground, so the quality of its foreign coverage was so much better than other papers. My Grandfather opined that it was because so much of the readership were retired soldiers and colonial officers!
It has lost that advantage now, but as we can directly read the Jerusalem Post, Kyiv Independent or South China Post we just don't need it anymore.
And Matt is free on Twitter. What else do people read the DT for?
I wish you hadn’t written that. I typed ‘Matt’ into Twitter’s search bar and got presented with a stream of young Asian ladies with very tight-fitting attire.
Maybe I’m showing my age, but I find the Telegraph cartoonist much more entertaining.
I think you have also revealed what you do when you are not posting nonsense on here. You might also want to look up "remarketing" as an explanation for your results. If I put Matt into Google I get a dictionary definition and then Matt Cartoons is the second listing. No Asian ladies.
Never reveal your search results. People might discover that Bing thinks you are Matt Hancock curious.
Even in today's tolerant society, there are some unacceptable perversions.
O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).
We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery. fore How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?
I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.
Some newspapers have the normal website vs pretend paper format option, and the latter is what you want. The National is an example, for instance. In that case when you go to the main website there is a blue button labelled "Digital Edition" and you press that to go to the pretend paper format. (Rather illogical as both the website format and the pretend paper options are both digital, but ...). You might have to poke around for your preferred example ...
You read the National? That is true dedication to the cause, that is. Respect.
Sarky!
Amongst others ... but I'd rather have the Scotsman and Herald of old, admittedly so last century now.
Yes, they were both quality reads once upon a time but are now little more than advertising pamphlets put together by a skeleton staff. It is sad.
I have told this story before but when I was a trainee I came across a copy of the Evening Telegraph in a set of title deeds which showed that the property had been repossessed and then sold by a bond holder before the first world war. The paper itself was remarkable with extended coverage of the comings and goings of the Austria-Hungarian court in Vienna and at least 6 pages of international news. What people going home on the tram to Lochee after a day in the Jute mills made of it heaven only knows but the international businesses based in Dundee in those times clearly created a demand for foreign news that is almost inconceivable today.
My Grandparents took the Telegraph because it used to not rely on the wire services, but rather had its own correspondents on the ground, so the quality of its foreign coverage was so much better than other papers. My Grandfather opined that it was because so much of the readership were retired soldiers and colonial officers!
It has lost that advantage now, but as we can directly read the Jerusalem Post, Kyiv Independent or South China Post we just don't need it anymore.
And Matt is free on Twitter. What else do people read the DT for?
I wish you hadn’t written that. I typed ‘Matt’ into Twitter’s search bar and got presented with a stream of young Asian ladies with very tight-fitting attire.
Maybe I’m showing my age, but I find the Telegraph cartoonist much more entertaining.
I think you have also revealed what you do when you are not posting nonsense on here. You might
also want to look up "remarketing" as an explanation for your results. If I put Matt into Google I get a dictionary definition and then Matt Cartoons is the second listing. No Asian ladies.
Many moons ago a poster rather pompously told
off OGH for having ads on his site for Romanian mail order brides. When it was pointed out that
the ads he got were a function of his own browsing history he slunk off into the night....
Yes and it was quite possibly bollocks. I used to get repeated ads for farming resources despite not owning a farm and having no internet nor search history in farming. If you think automatic advertising is accurate you are much more credulous than I thought.
What were they charging for lick blocks, do you remember?
Mr Sunak also intends to look to review the Equality Act to make it clear that sex means biological sex rather than gender.
This would mean that biological males cannot compete in women’s sport and other single-sex facilities such as changing rooms and women’s refuges will be protected.
It would also mean clarifying that self-identification for transgender people does not have legal force, meaning transgender women have no legal right to access women-only facilities.
A Downing Street source said that protecting women and girls is a priority for Mr Sunak’s administration.
Does this mean that someone like my ex-colleagues and a friend, who have been through all the processes, had all the ops, and have been living as women for a decade or decades, will suddenly have to use male changing facilities?
How will women react to big bearded transmen in their changing facilities?
I’ve been assured that they’lll be fine with it as long as said trans men show that they don’t have a fully functioning penis. At least I think that’s what they meant.
Will that apply to alcoholic males with Brewer's Droop?
Only ones who get intimidated by the dirty pigeons.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
I livew in semi-rural coastal SE Spain . As a gay man I find it very tolerant. It is still relatively poor - average income around 13k Euros. Taxes quite a lot higher than the UK - wickedly so for inheritances! The weather is sublime and the food at almost all levels is quite amazingly good and relatively cheap also. I live near a tiny town of about 3k souls and the whole area is barely 30k although it expands mostly with Spanish in the summer. Yet I have a fantastic restaurant and tapas bar 200 metres away and near Michelin quality places just a 5-10 miniute drive. Politically governed now by a left coalition but all the polls suggest a right coalition could win next time. In Andalucía the PP cons won outright last time, a centre -right leader and the first such result here ever I think. Me encanta!
Just to add - now live in a new ultra modern house with pool about 10 miles from the coast with fantastic views which took a year to build and cost 250k - in much of the UK it would be 4/5/6 times as much. In California millions!
Steady, some of us have to work another 20-25 years before we can do that!
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
FT yesterday: Breaking news: The US economy rebounded in the third quarter, as GDP increased by 2.6% on an annualised basis between July and September, surpassing economists’ expectations https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1585615103730262023
The NYT has plenty of op-eds which push daft Republican memes, too. Which somehow Sullivan doesn't notice. Note "US Media" includes Fox news.... "Total capture by far-left" is absurd nonsense from Sullivan.
And FWIW, the balance of UK public opinion actually is that Brexit was a mistake.
Note also Sullivan was given airtime on the BBC this morning to peddle his line in highbrow right wing paranoia.
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
You need at least 5% of the sale price of your new-build flat or house as a deposit. The government lends you up to 20% (or 40% if you live in London) of the sale price up to the regional limits. You borrow the rest (up to 75%, or 55% if you live in London) from a mortgage lender, on a repayment basis. The equity loan is interest-free for five years. From year 6, you’ll be charged 1.75% which will increase by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 2% (1% if you took the equity loan before December 2019). The equity loan must be repaid after 25 years, or earlier if you sell your home. You must repay the same percentage of the proceeds of the sale as the initial equity loan. So, if you received an equity loan for 20% of the purchase price of your home, you must repay 20% of the proceeds of the future sale. That means if the market value of your home rises, so does the amount you owe on your equity loan. If the value of your home falls, the amount you owe on your equity loan falls too.
There's certainly a bomb heading for those who took out help to buy from 2024 onward if CPI doesn't fall.
It'd have to be a big fall for the Gov't to lose out though.
Sold as "help" - it could yet all end in tears though.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power.
The last time it actually happened was in 1826.
In terms of a fifth consecutive general election win yes but we are 12 years into a Tory government, the equivalent of late 1991 in the Thatcher to Major government
The SNP have been in government for over 15 years, and are at 47% in this PeoplePolling/GB News poll. Incumbent governments are not always unpopular.
Only because the SNP are the only main Nationalist party in Scotland.
If the SC rules against indyref2 without UK government support and Sturgeon continues to rule out UDI then Salmond will likely stand Alba candidates in SNP Westminster seats at the next general election. At last we will get that split in the Nationalist vote under FPTP Unionists need
"only main nationalist party"
Scottish Greens too! Neck and neck for third party at Holyrood (depending how badly the Tories and SLD are doing.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Kinnock was not ruined by the media. He was a windbag and a bore. Please watch him on HIGNFY and ask yourself how it was that anyone thought that such a pillock could be PM (well prior to Johnson anyway!)
(Windbag) that was original, all sorts of people become P.M. who are not up to it, Johnson, Truss, Corbyn nearly got there, I would certainly put him above those three
I agree. Kinnock had many qualities. Really good orator for one thing - which is quite rare. Also a strong and capable party leader, as shown by his purging of the Militant Tendency. That was no easy task. I think he deserved to be PM - which you can't say about some of them, esp in recent times.
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
I’m not sure what you saying there? There hasn’t been a fall in house prices?
Are you saying there was No talk of fiscal black hole all year, all summer, all Tory campaign. No talk of austerity, tax rises from Sunak till he replaced Truss? Yet there is zero evidence all the fiscal black hole was caused by Liz Truss government?
There is some truth in that. Where did this black hole come from? The mini budget didn’t see one. Sunak campaigning all summer didn’t see one. And Truss didn’t create this black hole.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
He only uses Downing St as an office.
There is a lot of spreadsheet work to do before the Nov 17th statement. Potentially a bit of back st driving for Hunt, which could be a source of conflict.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
I livew in semi-rural coastal SE Spain . As a gay man I find it very tolerant. It is still relatively poor - average income around 13k Euros. Taxes quite a lot higher than the UK - wickedly so for inheritances! The weather is sublime and the food at almost all levels is quite amazingly good and relatively cheap also. I live near a tiny town of about 3k souls and the whole area is barely 30k although it expands mostly with Spanish in the summer. Yet I have a fantastic restaurant and tapas bar 200 metres away and near Michelin quality places just a 5-10 miniute drive. Politically governed now by a left coalition but all the polls suggest a right coalition could win next time. In Andalucía the PP cons won outright last time, a centre -right leader and the first such result here ever I think. Me encanta!
Just to add - now live in a new ultra modern house with pool about 10 miles from the coast with fantastic views which took a year to build and cost 250k - in much of the UK it would be 4/5/6 times as much. In California millions!
Upshot seems to be that everyone is losing all of their existing car industry, and some proper effort has to be made to attract new investment to build a new car industry for the electric vehicle age - and so far Britain is missing out.
The only two big volume manufacturers are JLR and Nissan. Nissan are powering along at 500,000+ vehicles a year but it's all based on models that are approaching the end of their lifecycle. JLR are still doing decent volumes but their future looks cloudy. They have given up in the powertrain business (new RR has a BMW engine) and are going to attempt to move Jaguar upmarket to be an electric only Bentley/RR competitor. I mean, it's a strategy but who knows if it will work. They probably need to ditch the Jaguar brand and sell it to some Chinese company who have the capital to make a success of the plan.
I dislike the JLR strategy. It just screams ’failure’.
But Nissan is the big worry: when those old models are retired, why would they invest in England for the new models? There’s a question Sunak’s crap cabinet can try to answer. Bet they can’t.
Jaguar own what would be the best brand ever for a BEV (E Type) yet do exactly nothing with it.
Nissan will be fine because they'll just threaten to move production of the new EV models to Spain and the UK government of the day will pay them whatever it takes to make them stay in Brexitstan.
Hardly sound economic policy. Basically bribery and corruption. David Cameron’s gift to the nations.
Upshot seems to be that everyone is losing all of their existing car industry, and some proper effort has to be made to attract new investment to build a new car industry for the electric vehicle age - and so far Britain is missing out.
The only two big volume manufacturers are JLR and Nissan. Nissan are powering along at 500,000+ vehicles a year but it's all based on models that are approaching the end of their lifecycle. JLR are still doing decent volumes but their future looks cloudy. They have given up in the powertrain business (new RR has a BMW engine) and are going to attempt to move Jaguar upmarket to be an electric only Bentley/RR competitor. I mean, it's a strategy but who knows if it will work. They probably need to ditch the Jaguar brand and sell it to some Chinese company who have the capital to make a success of the plan.
I dislike the JLR strategy. It just screams ’failure’.
But Nissan is the big worry: when those old models are retired, why would they invest in England for the new models? There’s a question Sunak’s crap cabinet can try to answer. Bet they can’t.
Jaguar own what would be the best brand ever for a BEV (E Type) yet do exactly nothing with it.
Nissan will be fine because they'll just threaten to move production of the new EV models to Spain and the UK government of the day will pay them whatever it takes to make them stay in Brexitstan.
Hardly sound economic policy. Basically bribery and corruption. David Cameron’s gift to the nations.
JLR look to me like the new 'Rover'. They are near the bottom of every reliability index I have looked at, and their EV's have a bad reputation; my friend took delivery of a new car with a range of 75 miles. Britain just seems to be cursed when it comes to building cars.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
I’m calling it.
Sunak is an insecure man, feeling insecure, and is trying far too hard to avoid looking insecure.
Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.
I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
What job?
Teaching!
Hmmm. Was there really a website that existed solely to watch *your* every move, criticise everything *you* did, and retweeted every tiny bit of information about *you*?
Thanks for the article, BTW. To one of your questions about why politicians are of low quality, I'd put more emphasis on ideological purity. For four or five years, Labour selected a load of people who were total incompetents - but were solidly Corbynite. Likewise, as you state the Conservatives have been concerned more about Brexit purity than sane government, and have forced out a load of people who did not think Europe was the source of all the country's ills.
Both parties need to become broader churches.
I'd also argue that some politicians who are widely derided aren't as bad as they are made out. Gove is a classic example of this: he is widely hated, but also one of the better performers.
And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
The last paragraph is weird nonsense. It's perfectly possible to have a parliament that includes "females" "BAME MPs" the "state-educated" who also have "ability".
People rightly see it as a sign of something wrong if government is dominated by, for example, rich people who went to elite private schools. Imagine a parliament that only contained white, male, privately-educated MPs. The only people who would just shrug and say "don't ask for more representation for other groups - it's just about ability" would probably be white, male and privately educated.
That's not my point, which I probably did not express well. You may be shocked to hear this, but I am a flawed individual. I fear that you are as well. Indeed, I may hasten to suggest that everyone on PB is. We will have some posters and readers who are liars; some who use prostitutes; some who swear in public; perhaps even some who indulge in domestic abuse. None of us will be perfect.
Yet that sort of behaviour might cause MPs significant issues (rightly, in some cases). We rightly expect MPs to be better than all of that, but if they are, then they are not *like* us. Like someone having an affair who complains about an MP having one.
So instead, we pretend that what matters is the 'group' someone is in - and assume that anyone who is not in that group cannot comprehend what it is like to be in that group. I'd much rather have someone totally unlike me as MP, who might be able to think and consider what it is like to be *me* (or my neighbours, or friends), than a middle-class, middle-aged heterosexual male like myself who is unable to consider what it might be like to be female. Or gay. Or Asian. Or elderly.
And as Sunak shows: even when they are a member of a group, if they have 'wrong' ideas then they are suddenly not a member of that group in some people's eyes.
And BTW, I've argued for inclusion consistently on here. But only if they are also good at the job - however you define the job of a politician (and that's a whole other issue).
digging
???
An old 60's expression that means he likes it!
No, I mean trying to rescue a bad argument and making it worse. I expect professional behaviour from everybody, including me, in professional life, whether they are dentists or MPs or carwash workers. And neither I nor most other people give much of a toss about the sex or skin colour of MPs.
Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.
“lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure”
So they squeezed the PUSS out? 🫣
I was too busy being born when this was happening, which is why political history on PB is great.
I don’t remember Gladstone and Disraeli either, as well as you guys remember them 😁 so Gladstone was the liberal, but ultra dry and right wing on economics, very two nation politics, Disraeli a Tory, but über leftwing and very One Nation? But that doesn’t make any sense at all 🤷♀️
How long have you got?
I think Gladstone would have thought of Disraeli as an unprincipled adventurer and Disraeli of Gladstone as a sanctimonious hypocrite. The Liberal watchwords in Gladstone’s day were ‘Peace, Retrenchment and Reform’: the Liberal world view at that time was that taxation should be as low as possible so that ‘money is left to fructify in the pockets of the people’ and Gladstone would have been horrified at the high-spending hyper-active state that tends to be associated with much ‘liberal’ thinking today. There is a sternness and severity about Gladstone’s view of the role of the state, whereas the Tories under Disraeli were more pragmatic and accommodating.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power.
The last time it actually happened was in 1826.
In terms of a fifth consecutive general election win yes but we are 12 years into a Tory government, the equivalent of late 1991 in the Thatcher to Major government
The SNP have been in government for over 15 years, and are at 47% in this PeoplePolling/GB News poll. Incumbent governments are not always unpopular.
Only because the SNP are the only main Nationalist party in Scotland.
If the SC rules against indyref2 without UK government support and Sturgeon continues to rule out UDI then Salmond will likely stand Alba candidates in SNP Westminster seats at the next general election. At last we will get that split in the Nationalist vote under FPTP Unionists need
"only main nationalist party"
Scottish Greens too! Neck and neck for third party at Holyrood (depending how badly the Tories and SLD are doing.
There is not a single Scottish Green MP or Holyrood constituency MP
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
I know you think that the universe revolves around the Tory Party, but I’ve got some disturbing news for you: Scottish independence is about Scots and their choices for their national life, not about a political party that happens to be (usually) quite popular in a neighbouring country.
Quite. A wish for independence is far too often assumed to be anti-English racism; an especially irrational fallacy gfiven the number of people originally from England in the SNP, and in the indy movement (not the same thing, either, wjhich is another fallacy we are seeing today).
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power.
The last time it actually happened was in 1826.
In terms of a fifth consecutive general election win yes but we are 12 years into a Tory government, the equivalent of late 1991 in the Thatcher to Major government
The SNP have been in government for over 15 years, and are at 47% in this PeoplePolling/GB News poll. Incumbent governments are not always unpopular.
Only because the SNP are the only main Nationalist party in Scotland.
If the SC rules against indyref2 without UK government support and Sturgeon continues to rule out UDI then Salmond will likely stand Alba candidates in SNP Westminster seats at the next general election. At last we will get that split in the Nationalist vote under FPTP Unionists need
"only main nationalist party"
Scottish Greens too! Neck and neck for third party at Holyrood (depending how badly the Tories and SLD are doing.
There is not a single Scottish Green MP or Holyrood constituency MP
Just wait till FPTP is abolished.
Also: the same goes for Reform UK. Yet you are always going on aboujt how powerful and important that party is.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
I know you think that the universe revolves around the Tory Party, but I’ve got some disturbing news for you: Scottish independence is about Scots and their choices for their national life, not about a political party that happens to be (usually) quite popular in a neighbouring country.
For most Scots it isn't, hence Sturgeon defines herself against Westminster and Tory England. If Labour get back into power at Westminster and give devomax to Holyrood that is a disaster for the independence movement (if less so for the SNP).
That is why Salmond wants to strike sooner rather than later
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
I livew in semi-rural coastal SE Spain . As a gay man I find it very tolerant. It is still relatively poor - average income around 13k Euros. Taxes quite a lot higher than the UK - wickedly so for inheritances! The weather is sublime and the food at almost all levels is quite amazingly good and relatively cheap also. I live near a tiny town of about 3k souls and the whole area is barely 30k although it expands mostly with Spanish in the summer. Yet I have a fantastic restaurant and tapas bar 200 metres away and near Michelin quality places just a 5-10 miniute drive. Politically governed now by a left coalition but all the polls suggest a right coalition could win next time. In Andalucía the PP cons won outright last time, a centre -right leader and the first such result here ever I think. Me encanta!
Sounds like you are "living the life".
Nowhere is perfect and life is not always kind to us but I have much to be thankful for. I remain attached to the UK but I would not consider returning there to live.
My ambition is to spend a few days in Spain sometime. I haven't managed it yet.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
I livew in semi-rural coastal SE Spain . As a gay man I find it very tolerant. It is still relatively poor - average income around 13k Euros. Taxes quite a lot higher than the UK - wickedly so for inheritances! The weather is sublime and the food at almost all levels is quite amazingly good and relatively cheap also. I live near a tiny town of about 3k souls and the whole area is barely 30k although it expands mostly with Spanish in the summer. Yet I have a fantastic restaurant and tapas bar 200 metres away and near Michelin quality places just a 5-10 miniute drive. Politically governed now by a left coalition but all the polls suggest a right coalition could win next time. In Andalucía the PP cons won outright last time, a centre -right leader and the first such result here ever I think. Me encanta!
Just to add - now live in a new ultra modern house with pool about 10 miles from the coast with fantastic views which took a year to build and cost 250k - in much of the UK it would be 4/5/6 times as much. In California millions!
£250k - gosh that does sound like a bargain.
Britain has a problem with build costs. A crash in the housing market can address the high price of land but not build costs. Even without a housing crash the rise in build costs is making lots of projects unviable. There are many contributory factors but one factor is the government being indifferent to imposing additional regulatory costs on to property developers as they are not percieved in a good light. But ultimately they create vast amounts of economic activity.
In other parts of Europe construction is cheaper and far more efficient.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Would love to see London survive without all the commuters from the Home Counties.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power.
The last time it actually happened was in 1826.
In terms of a fifth consecutive general election win yes but we are 12 years into a Tory government, the equivalent of late 1991 in the Thatcher to Major government
The SNP have been in government for over 15 years, and are at 47% in this PeoplePolling/GB News poll. Incumbent governments are not always unpopular.
Only because the SNP are the only main Nationalist party in Scotland.
If the SC rules against indyref2 without UK government support and Sturgeon continues to rule out UDI then Salmond will likely stand Alba candidates in SNP Westminster seats at the next general election. At last we will get that split in the Nationalist vote under FPTP Unionists need
"only main nationalist party"
Scottish Greens too! Neck and neck for third party at Holyrood (depending how badly the Tories and SLD are doing.
There is not a single Scottish Green MP or Holyrood constituency MP
Just wait till FPTP is abolished.
Also: the same goes for Reform UK. Yet you are always going on aboujt how powerful and important that party is.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
If the Tories can show boring competence over the next couple of years and with a bit of luck (e.g. positive outcome in Ukraine) then they should be able to reduce the deficit to limit Labour to a small majority. That is probably the best outcome for them as a party right now. Gives them a very good chance of getting back in 5 years later.
Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.
“lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure”
So they squeezed the PUSS out? 🫣
I was too busy being born when this was happening, which is why political history on PB is great.
I don’t remember Gladstone and Disraeli either, as well as you guys remember them 😁 so Gladstone was the liberal, but ultra dry and right wing on economics, very two nation politics, Disraeli a Tory, but über leftwing and very One Nation? But that doesn’t make any sense at all 🤷♀️
How long have you got?
I think Gladstone would have thought of Disraeli as an unprincipled adventurer and Disraeli of Gladstone as a sanctimonious hypocrite. The Liberal watchwords in Gladstone’s day were ‘Peace, Retrenchment and Reform’: the Liberal world view at that time was that taxation should be as low as possible so that ‘money is left to fructify in the pockets of the people’ and Gladstone would have been horrified at the high-spending hyper-active state that tends to be associated with much ‘liberal’ thinking today. There is a sternness and severity about Gladstone’s view of the role of the state, whereas the Tories under Disraeli were more pragmatic and accommodating.
Personally I’m very much in the Disraeli camp.
Long time lurker but my first post.
Hello!
Mind, Gladstone did bring the railways to heel (sort of), with controlled fares on at least one train each day* and a nationalisation powers clause. Still keeps some lines in use for that single train a day.
*Even if some companies provided crap trains at crap hours.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Would love to see London survive without all the commuters from the Home Counties.
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
You need at least 5% of the sale price of your new-build flat or house as a deposit. The government lends you up to 20% (or 40% if you live in London) of the sale price up to the regional limits. You borrow the rest (up to 75%, or 55% if you live in London) from a mortgage lender, on a repayment basis. The equity loan is interest-free for five years. From year 6, you’ll be charged 1.75% which will increase by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 2% (1% if you took the equity loan before December 2019). The equity loan must be repaid after 25 years, or earlier if you sell your home. You must repay the same percentage of the proceeds of the sale as the initial equity loan. So, if you received an equity loan for 20% of the purchase price of your home, you must repay 20% of the proceeds of the future sale. That means if the market value of your home rises, so does the amount you owe on your equity loan. If the value of your home falls, the amount you owe on your equity loan falls too.
There's certainly a bomb heading for those who took out help to buy from 2024 onward if CPI doesn't fall.
It'd have to be a big fall for the Gov't to lose out though.
Sold as "help" - it could yet all end in tears though.
It going up and down with house prices makes sense though, its essentially a mix of a glorified shared and a loan, isn't it?
As house prices go up the government benefits from having provided the equity by having its share go up, as they go down it reverses.
I'd be curious to see a long-term analysis as to how much HMT has benefited or lost from that scheme, I would have thought its been a very positive scheme overall so far.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
FT yesterday: Breaking news: The US economy rebounded in the third quarter, as GDP increased by 2.6% on an annualised basis between July and September, surpassing economists’ expectations https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1585615103730262023
The NYT has plenty of op-eds which push daft Republican memes, too. Which somehow Sullivan doesn't notice. Note "US Media" includes Fox news.... "Total capture by far-left" is absurd nonsense from Sullivan.
And FWIW, the balance of UK public opinion actually is that Brexit was a mistake.
Note also Sullivan was given airtime on the BBC this morning to peddle his line in highbrow right wing paranoia.
Yeah, I heard that. Wonderful how the BBC is always happy to give 'balancing' views. Sullivan has a cheek to be ranting on about bubbles.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
Time off? He has started a big new job this week and parliament has hardly been open for business at all since the summer. Of course he should be working at least one of the weekend days this week.
I think politics is too chaotic to make any predictions at the moment. No one serious would have predicted that Truss would only last for 45 days. An end to the Ukraine war could change Sunak's position overnight, we could be well in to the sunlight uplands by Spring. Who knows.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
That's true - it's more like a corridor that runs up from Brighton to Cambridge.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.
Labour's problem is that there was little intake in 2019, and those few were often of very low calibre, such as my local Claudia Webbe. Hence there are a lot of Miliband retreads and old familiar faces. Thanks to 2019 the PLP have a n old group of MPs compared to Tories. The next GE may well reverse that of course.
I think though that @ydoethur in his interesting header is wearing his rose tinted specs. Parliament has always had a lot of nonentities, yes-men, careerists and time-servers. It is only the veneer of time that makes previous cabinets such as the 1997 New Labour one look good.
Rose tinted spectacles are always a danger.
But here is a question. Who would you have in the cabinet from the current lot ahead of any names member of the 1997 cabinet? Or the 1979 cabinet?
I find it’s a very short list. Possibly in the latter case Mordaunt for Norman St John Stevas, Sunak for Prior and Harper for Howell. Possibly Gove for Joseph. But would you take any of this lot ahead of even mid-ranking ministers like Pym or Gilmour?
Was Pym a substantial minister ? Possibly a slight upgrade over our current defence secretary, but I don't think he had any achievements of great note, and disappeared into obscurity when Thatcher sacked him. His predecessor in that role, John Nott, provided the actual archetype of a "here today, gone tomorrow" politician. Though I'm no fan of his, Hunt is a more substantial figure than a number of Thatcher's ministers.
But your general point is arguably true. Peter Walker, for example, who is recalled by almost nobody today, had substantial achievements to his name.
One could also argue that an exceptionally determined PM who had a clearly formed idea of what she wanted to do, together with a handful of very strong ministers, dragged the rest of the mediocrities up behind them.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
At redemption, the gilts are replaced by higher interest debt taken on by the DMO. The government can't escape rising interest rates, and sales from the APF are assumed to be contractionary, meaning that they could replace base rate rises (i.e. increased debt service costs).
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
If you want to know more about modern Spain, you will generally struggle to find much in English. Giles Tremlett has just written a decent, very breathless, potted history of Spain that is worth a read. For me, the best historian of the country writing in English is Paul Preston.
In terms of general themes for Spain:
1. Catalan nationalism and its interaction with Spanish nationalism is absolutely pivotal to what has happened there for the last 200 years. You cannot begin to understand Spain without knowing that. Most recently it has led to the rise of Spain’s first post-Franco far-right party, Vox. 2. The environment - much of central and eastern Spain is on course to becoming semi-desert. Long-term water shortages are changing the country. But at the same time it could become a solar and wind energy superpower. 3. Immigration. There has been a huge influx of Latin Americans into Spain over recent years, alongside smaller but significant arrivals from Africa - North and sub-Saharan. How that plays out will be fascinating, but it’s likely to lead to major change. Start with those three, but there’s so much more.
I was in Madrid over the weekend, and took the chance to see the paintings of Goya. He captures brilliantly, the sheer stupidity and arrogance of Ferdinand VII 'El Rey Felone'. And then his later works are absolutely nightmarish.
If you want to get a clearer insight into the agonies and atrocities of Ukraine, a bit of time with Goya’s Peninsular War stuff should do it.
Some French commanders behaved like the Nazis towards the Spanish population. They viewed the Spanish as savages and acted accordingly.
In post-war memoirs, French officers were keen to stress that they fought a clean war, whereas all the atrocities were on the part of the guerillas. Rather like the Myth of the Clean Wehrmact, it became the dominant historical narrative for a time.
Without question, the guerillas could be cruel, but they weren't as brutal as the French were.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Or Monaco, Singapore, Vatican City independence?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.
I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
What job?
Teaching!
And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?
This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.
One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.
"presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates."
What is 'working class' nowadays? IMV the distinctions are becoming very blurred. For instance, is Owen Jones 'working class' ? If so, why not Rishi Sunak?
Agree totally on non-graduates. I've wittered on about the evils of the 50% university targets in the past; but what we are seeing are increasing number of roles which are closed to non-graduates (*). This is utterly wrong and throws lots of people under the bus - the same effect as the 11+, except later in life.
(*) I am a non-graduate.
We have a skills shortage of craftspeople and tradespeople. We don’t have a skills shortage of graduates.
We do. Doctors, Nurses, Physiotherapists etc are all suffering skills shortages.
Doctors I accept. Should nurses and physiotherapists need a degree?
I think so, yes. The suggestion that they don't probably underestimates the nature of their job. Most Doctors probably don't "need" a degree, but it is the way we deliver a structured programme of learning over several years including theoretical and practical work.
For a long time, it was rare for doctors to have degrees. You would become a medical student at the medical school (or teaching hospital) of your choice, and at the end of the course, you would take the medical exams set not by a university but by the Royal Colleges (or equivalent bodies) and would qualify as LMSSA or LRCP MRCS ("the conjoint") or the other one.
Then for a long time, it was common for medical students to take both the university exams for a medical degree, and also the college exams as a belt and braces approach.
I believe you can still do this, although there was talk of ending it. Foxy will know more, of course.
There is a related question about whether the GMC (General Medical Council) recognises foreign medical degrees. The most famous case of them not doing so, and that is relevant to pb, is of Dr Steven Ward of Profumo Affair infamy, who had qualified in the United States but was not allowed to practise medicine in Britain.
So yes, as you say, the question of whether a doctor, nurse or physiotherapist needs a degree is misleading. It is not as if they need a degree in (say) History or English before they can start medical training, but that the training needed to become a doctor, nurse or physiotherapist have now been packaged up as degree courses in medicine, nursing and physiotherapy.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
Not that interesting. There is a strong correlation between being left-wing and being desperate to live in overpriced places like London.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
The second wave polls next week should give an indication of whether the bounce is a one trick pony or an 'ongoing event' 35% strategy imo to lock Starmer out of anything more than a wafer thin majority and likely minority government
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
JLR look to me like the new 'Rover'. They are near the bottom of every reliability index I have looked at, and their EV's have a bad reputation; my friend took delivery of a new car with a range of 75 miles. Britain just seems to be cursed when it comes to building cars.
I think they are getting better, from a low base, as they have learned some production engineering discipline from Tata. Against my better judgement I did a new airbag computer in an Evoque last year and could see they had at least tried with reduced fastener count and used 10mm hex as much as possible.
Every new RR I see seems to be running massive negative camber on the rear to fit the outsized wheels under the bodywork without suspension mods. They must handle like shit at the limit.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
We will keep Epping Forest. They can have Harlow.
You can also have Dagenham and Romford
Of course. We need places for our quinoa hipster offspring to gentrify next.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Or Monaco, Singapore, Vatican City independence?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Vatican City's independence is a complete nonsense. Monaco's isn't much better.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h I know it's a low bar, but this is a refreshing change from his 2 predecessors. 'Sunak isn’t currently planning to head to Chequers for his first weekend as prime minister and is expected to work from Downing Street.'
Is that good?
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
I think you can spin it both ways to be honest.
First few weeks as PM has got to be work, work, work, surely? Especially in the current crisis situation.
So he's doing the right thing. Chequers staff were presumably stood down for this weekend once the lazy liar pulled out having 'gathered enough nominations to make the vote'.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
If you want to know more about modern Spain, you will generally struggle to find much in English. Giles Tremlett has just written a decent, very breathless, potted history of Spain that is worth a read. For me, the best historian of the country writing in English is Paul Preston.
In terms of general themes for Spain:
1. Catalan nationalism and its interaction with Spanish nationalism is absolutely pivotal to what has happened there for the last 200 years. You cannot begin to understand Spain without knowing that. Most recently it has led to the rise of Spain’s first post-Franco far-right party, Vox. 2. The environment - much of central and eastern Spain is on course to becoming semi-desert. Long-term water shortages are changing the country. But at the same time it could become a solar and wind energy superpower. 3. Immigration. There has been a huge influx of Latin Americans into Spain over recent years, alongside smaller but significant arrivals from Africa - North and sub-Saharan. How that plays out will be fascinating, but it’s likely to lead to major change. Start with those three, but there’s so much more.
I was in Madrid over the weekend, and took the chance to see the paintings of Goya. He captures brilliantly, the sheer stupidity and arrogance of Ferdinand VII 'El Rey Felone'. And then his later works are absolutely nightmarish.
If you want to get a clearer insight into the agonies and atrocities of Ukraine, a bit of time with Goya’s Peninsular War stuff should do it.
Some French commanders behaved like the Nazis towards the Spanish population. They viewed the Spanish as savages and acted accordingly.
In post-war memoirs, French officers were keen to stress that they fought a clean war, whereas all the atrocities were on the part of the guerillas. Rather like the Myth of the Clean Wehrmact, it became the dominant historical narrative for a time.
Without question, the guerillas could be cruel, but they weren't as brutal as the French were.
By contrast, in the toilet of a film that is The Patriot the character modelled on Banastre Tarleton is portrayed burning down a church filled with American civilians - an incident that never took place and is modelled on what Nazi SS soldiers did to a French village in 1944.
Naturally, it's believed though. Film is a very powerful propaganda medium.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
All big cities are now more left liberal than their surrounds. Biden won 76% in New York city in 2020 for instance compared to 51% US wide and Macron won 30% in Ile de France in the first round in May and 73% in the second round compared to 27% and 58% France wide
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
Not that interesting. There is a strong correlation between being left-wing and being desperate to live in overpriced places like London.
I also think it's to do with being able to afford a home. If people are priced out of owning a home in major cities despite having a salary of £35-40k and a partner with a similar salary, they're not likely to vote for a party that's doing nothing to help them get on the housing ladder apart from token stamp duty relief.
Instead, they're going to go for the party that says it'll stand up for renters since they have no medium term hope of being able to get on the property ladder.
The solution for the Conservatives is simple (build houses in places people want to live) but NIMBYism means they won't do it willingly.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
FT yesterday: Breaking news: The US economy rebounded in the third quarter, as GDP increased by 2.6% on an annualised basis between July and September, surpassing economists’ expectations https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1585615103730262023
The NYT has plenty of op-eds which push daft Republican memes, too. Which somehow Sullivan doesn't notice. Note "US Media" includes Fox news.... "Total capture by far-left" is absurd nonsense from Sullivan.
And FWIW, the balance of UK public opinion actually is that Brexit was a mistake.
Note also Sullivan was given airtime on the BBC this morning to peddle his line in highbrow right wing paranoia.
Yeah, I heard that. Wonderful how the BBC is always happy to give 'balancing' views. Sullivan has a cheek to be ranting on about bubbles.
Well he's not entirely wrong about the audience for Trevor Noah on the Daily Show. But the implication that this is somehow a problem confined to the left is beyond ridiculous.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Or Monaco, Singapore, Vatican City independence?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Vatican City's independence is a complete nonsense. Monaco's isn't much better.
No it isn't, as Vatican City is effectively the capital for the Roman Catholic church which has 1.3 billion members worldwide, which would make it the 3rd largest country by population worldwide if the RC church was a country.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
It's interesting, though - London and the inner Home Counties seem to be diverging politically.
Not that interesting. There is a strong correlation between being left-wing and being desperate to live in overpriced places like London.
I also think it's to do with being able to afford a home. If people are priced out of owning a home in major cities despite having a salary of £35-40k and a partner with a similar salary, they're not likely to vote for a party that's doing nothing to help them get on the housing ladder apart from token stamp duty relief.
Instead, they're going to go for the party that says it'll stand up for renters since they have no medium term hope of being able to get on the property ladder.
The solution for the Conservatives is simple (build houses in places people want to live) but NIMBYism means they won't do it willingly.
The Tories don't need to win London anyway, as 2019 proved when they won a landslide despite losing London
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Or Monaco, Singapore, Vatican City independence?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Vatican City's independence is a complete nonsense. Monaco's isn't much better.
No it isn't, as Vatican City is effectively the capital for the Roman Catholic church which has 1.3 billion members worldwide, which would make it the 3rd largest country by population worldwide if the RC church was a country.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Over on AlternativeHistory forum, the consensus seems to be that all you needed to have Kinnock win in 1992 was Major's affair come out a week before polling day. Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Nowhere as there is not even a London independence party wanting full London independence
As much of a nonsense as Washington, Paris or Tokyo independence.
Or Monaco, Singapore, Vatican City independence?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Vatican City's independence is a complete nonsense. Monaco's isn't much better.
its good to have sovereign entities like the Vatican that has an international adherence , it lessens the excesses of more geographical states and promotes understanding . There should be more not less. After all for most people, its a lot easier to choose or change your religion than your nationality
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
We will keep Epping Forest. They can have Harlow.
You can also have Dagenham and Romford
[Looks up and around, like a confused meerkat]
Romford? I know what you mean, but the "Essex, actually" aspect of Romford seems to be tailing off. It certainly used to be a place where people went to escape from London and shuddered at the thought of being reabsorbed. But many of the flighters have flown further out and been replaced by people looking for a convenient agreeable London suburb. Ten days until Elizabeth Line proper and all that.
(Political implications? The first cracks in the Conservative hegemony in Romford appeared in the May elections. It will see out Andrew Rosindell, and probably his successor. But not the one after that.)
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Where do right-wingers hear about Reform? I never see it referred to anywhere but here, and have no idea who leads it or what its main campaigns are about. The bland name doesn't sound especially racist or right-wing, sop it's not spontaneous enthusiasm for something like Britain First. Getting 7% must mean that they are getting significant coverage, surely?
O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).
We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.
How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?
I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.
Is it really more environmentally friendly to read digitally than on paper? You'd think so but maybe the obvious answer isn't right. It may be that paper is more easily recycled than the components of digital devices.
Well the iPad is already bought and used for other stuff so the net increase for having a newspaper on it is nil.
I suspect the energy costs of recycling and reprinting actual paper is quite hight too.
Then we have to allow for the distribution of paper copies, in our case the last 3 miles is by a rather elderly 'paperboy' in his car. I feel sad for him tbh as his (hopefully) pin money job gradually dries up. But they'd be cancelling the delivery service to villages like ours once the old boy retires anyway, I expect.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Over on AlternativeHistory forum, the consensus seems to be that all you needed to have Kinnock win in 1992 was Major's affair come out a week before polling day. Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
Surround the M25 with border patrols. Checkpoints at the M1, M2, M3, M4 etc. All taxes raised in London to be spent in London; security budget will be huge, obvs.
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
Under Osborne's Help to Buy scheme, banks or building societies lend 75 per cent, and the taxpayer puts up 20 per cent, in a typical 95 per cent mortgage. In the event of the borrower defaulting during a market crash where the forced sale of the house will not raise enough to cover the loan, the taxpayer loses their 20 per cent, and only after that are the banks affected. The total liability would be £23 billion. Not the end of the world even if all borrowers default, which seems unlikely, but not insignificant either.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
Given that we know there is an autumn budget coming, any changes before then aren't too important as they could easily be reversed then.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Over on AlternativeHistory forum, the consensus seems to be that all you needed to have Kinnock win in 1992 was Major's affair come out a week before polling day. Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
A Kinnock win in 92 would have robbed me of the absolute joy of ribbing my girlfriend about it for weeks and the general disbelief amongst the student population in Southampton. But but but WHYYYYYYYYYYY. Mwahahaha
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Lowest swing against the Tories since 2019 under Sunak is in Scotland with Yougov. Tories up to 19% in Scotland compared to 16% in London and 20% in the North
If the benchmark the English Tories are setting for themselves is Scottish Tory Voting Intention, then politics is about to become very interesting.
If Yougov is correct and the Tories are polling higher in Scotland than London it will be the first time this century Scotland has not been the region with the lowest Tory voteshare in GB.
Yet you don't here Londoners demanding independence!!
Scotland was pro LKabour and anti Torty first - the independence came a little later. So you'd better bloody well hope the border isn't drawn across your kitchen floor.
I hadn't noticed Scotland has become independent overnight.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
I'm talking about London independence; where will the border go?
Cardiff, Sheffield, Calais?
That puts me inside an Independent London. No thanks.
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Over on AlternativeHistory forum, the consensus seems to be that all you needed to have Kinnock win in 1992 was Major's affair come out a week before polling day. Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
Sunak and Hunt Mugging the energy companies and banks to fill the black hole, so they can keep benefits up with inflation - anyone think that is a bad idea?
What fall in house prices gives rise to a £23bn black hole?
Under Osborne's Help to Buy scheme, banks or building societies lend 75 per cent, and the taxpayer puts up 20 per cent, in a typical 95 per cent mortgage. In the event of the borrower defaulting during a market crash where the forced sale of the house will not raise enough to cover the loan, the taxpayer loses their 20 per cent, and only after that are the banks affected. The total liability would be £23 billion. Not the end of the world even if all borrowers default, which seems unlikely, but not insignificant either.
It's £23bn if ALL borrowers default, and the Government's stake is wiped out?
After 10 years in power the mood for change normally prevails as does the desire for fresh faces in government. Sunak will be aiming to emulate Sur John Major as the only PM in the last 100 years to have won a general election after 10 years of his party in power. However that was largely to keep Kinnock out rather than Major in and it was all downhill from for the Tory government. Starmer may be no Blair but he is no Kinnock either.
Then it will be the state of the economy under a Starmer government that determines how long the Tories take to recover
Sur John Major
He was only known as that when on the loo in France
Kinnock was ruined by the right wing media, I can still recall the front page of the Sun to this day, he was treated extremely badly by them, he done a helluva lot of hard yards getting rid of militant, that was rife in labour in the 80s, he certainly made it a lot easier for Blair, alright he fell in the water, Major had sex with Edwina Currie, I know what I would rather do, so when you say (to keep kinnock out) it's because Murdoch didn't like him, which is another credit for him in my eyes
Over on AlternativeHistory forum, the consensus seems to be that all you needed to have Kinnock win in 1992 was Major's affair come out a week before polling day. Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
Heseltine not Clarke would likely have been Leader of the Opposition in 1997 if Kinnock was PM
Comments
Like most lost things the pools world is chronicled in Philip Larkin, Mr Bleaney in this case, who 'kept on plugging at the four aways'.
But it was addictive for non punters too.
BritNats are nothing if not inconsistent.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1585936660604547073
Everyone needs some time off and a chance to reflect, and there's no reason that Sunak can't take some work with him to Chequers anyway.
It does show that Sunak is anxious to present a certain image to the public. It demonstrates a particular political awareness.
For example, NYT yesterday:
Breaking News: The U.S. economy grew 0.6% in the third quarter, a 2.6% annual rate, a rebound, but not enough to ease worries about a recession.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1585612820196069381
FT yesterday:
Breaking news: The US economy rebounded in the third quarter, as GDP increased by 2.6% on an annualised basis between July and September, surpassing economists’ expectations
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1585615103730262023
The NYT has plenty of op-eds which push daft Republican memes, too.
Which somehow Sullivan doesn't notice.
Note "US Media" includes Fox news.... "Total capture by far-left" is absurd nonsense from Sullivan.
And FWIW, the balance of UK public opinion actually is that Brexit was a mistake.
Note also Sullivan was given airtime on the BBC this morning to peddle his line in highbrow right wing paranoia.
You need at least 5% of the sale price of your new-build flat or house as a deposit.
The government lends you up to 20% (or 40% if you live in London) of the sale price up to the regional limits.
You borrow the rest (up to 75%, or 55% if you live in London) from a mortgage lender, on a repayment basis.
The equity loan is interest-free for five years.
From year 6, you’ll be charged 1.75% which will increase by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 2% (1% if you took the equity loan before December 2019).
The equity loan must be repaid after 25 years, or earlier if you sell your home.
You must repay the same percentage of the proceeds of the sale as the initial equity loan. So, if you received an equity loan for 20% of the purchase price of your home, you must repay 20% of the proceeds of the future sale.
That means if the market value of your home rises, so does the amount you owe on your equity loan. If the value of your home falls, the amount you owe on your equity loan falls too.
There's certainly a bomb heading for those who took out help to buy from 2024 onward if CPI doesn't fall.
It'd have to be a big fall for the Gov't to lose out though.
Sold as "help" - it could yet all end in tears though.
Scottish Greens too! Neck and neck for third party at Holyrood (depending how badly the Tories and SLD are doing.
Are you saying there was No talk of fiscal black hole all year, all summer, all Tory campaign. No talk of austerity, tax rises from Sunak till he replaced Truss? Yet there is zero evidence all the fiscal black hole was caused by Liz Truss government?
There is some truth in that. Where did this black hole come from? The mini budget didn’t see one. Sunak campaigning all summer didn’t see one. And Truss didn’t create this black hole.
But publishing the bodycam footage of her arrest is pure porn with no purpose whatsoever (except to deter us from decapitating our mates?)
There is a lot of spreadsheet work to do before the Nov 17th statement. Potentially a bit of back st driving for Hunt, which could be a source of conflict.
Sunak is an insecure man, feeling insecure, and is trying far too hard to avoid looking insecure.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1585938604978835458?s=20&t=-V7EWIONKgNiNH58TdItfw
Tories crawling towards 30
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1)
CON 27% (+4)
LD 8% (-3)
SNP 5% (+1)
GRN 2% (-1)
Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
I think Gladstone would have thought of Disraeli as an unprincipled adventurer and Disraeli of Gladstone as a sanctimonious hypocrite. The Liberal watchwords in Gladstone’s day were ‘Peace, Retrenchment and Reform’: the Liberal world view at that time was that taxation should be as low as possible so that ‘money is left to fructify in the pockets of the people’ and Gladstone would have been horrified at the high-spending hyper-active state that tends to be associated with much ‘liberal’ thinking today. There is a sternness and severity about Gladstone’s view of the role of the state, whereas the Tories under Disraeli were more pragmatic and accommodating.
Personally I’m very much in the Disraeli camp.
Long time lurker but my first post.
The SNP have also had MPs for decades, there is no party demanding London independence. Even England has a small English Democrats party that has pushed for English independence in the past and now wants an English parliament
Also: the same goes for Reform UK. Yet you are always going on aboujt how powerful and important that party is.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/UK10Y-GB
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Is it too early for Sunny Rich to worry, as some of the more onside PB Tories claim?
Or are @Ishmael_Z and @MoonRabbit right and this might be the ‘honeymoon’ bounce…
That is why Salmond wants to strike sooner rather than later
In other parts of Europe construction is cheaper and far more efficient.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
Under FPTP they aren't
Mind, Gladstone did bring the railways to heel (sort of), with controlled fares on at least one train each day* and a nationalisation powers clause. Still keeps some lines in use for that single train a day.
*Even if some companies provided crap trains at crap hours.
As house prices go up the government benefits from having provided the equity by having its share go up, as they go down it reverses.
I'd be curious to see a long-term analysis as to how much HMT has benefited or lost from that scheme, I would have thought its been a very positive scheme overall so far.
Sullivan has a cheek to be ranting on about bubbles.
No one serious would have predicted that Truss would only last for 45 days.
An end to the Ukraine war could change Sunak's position overnight, we could be well in to the sunlight uplands by Spring.
Who knows.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
Though I'm no fan of his, Hunt is a more substantial figure than a number of Thatcher's ministers.
But your general point is arguably true. Peter Walker, for example, who is recalled by almost nobody today, had substantial achievements to his name.
One could also argue that an exceptionally determined PM who had a clearly formed idea of what she wanted to do, together with a handful of very strong ministers, dragged the rest of the mediocrities up behind them.
In post-war memoirs, French officers were keen to stress that they fought a clean war, whereas all the atrocities were on the part of the guerillas. Rather like the Myth of the Clean Wehrmact, it became the dominant historical narrative for a time.
Without question, the guerillas could be cruel, but they weren't as brutal as the French were.
Any real finance experts care to opine?
I don't think its a good idea, but city states can be independent if they choose.
Then for a long time, it was common for medical students to take both the university exams for a medical degree, and also the college exams as a belt and braces approach.
I believe you can still do this, although there was talk of ending it. Foxy will know more, of course.
There is a related question about whether the GMC (General Medical Council) recognises foreign medical degrees. The most famous case of them not doing so, and that is relevant to pb, is of Dr Steven Ward of Profumo Affair infamy, who had qualified in the United States but was not allowed to practise medicine in Britain.
So yes, as you say, the question of whether a doctor, nurse or physiotherapist needs a degree is misleading. It is not as if they need a degree in (say) History or English before they can start medical training, but that the training needed to become a doctor, nurse or physiotherapist have now been packaged up as degree courses in medicine, nursing and physiotherapy.
35% strategy imo to lock Starmer out of anything more than a wafer thin majority and likely minority government
Every new RR I see seems to be running massive negative camber on the rear to fit the outsized wheels under the bodywork without suspension mods. They must handle like shit at the limit.
Scholz and Macron threaten trade retaliation against Biden
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-and-germany-find-ground-on-a-common-concern-u-s-protectionism/
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
So he's doing the right thing. Chequers staff were presumably stood down for this weekend once the lazy liar pulled out having 'gathered enough nominations to make the vote'.
Naturally, it's believed though. Film is a very powerful propaganda medium.
Instead, they're going to go for the party that says it'll stand up for renters since they have no medium term hope of being able to get on the property ladder.
The solution for the Conservatives is simple (build houses in places people want to live) but NIMBYism means they won't do it willingly.
https://twitter.com/BenObeseJecty/status/1585358573533802496
Monaco is just a tax haven mainly
Major's hypocrisy and his Back to Basics campaign probably would've sunk him.
Not to be though.......
Strangely, a 1992 Kinnock win probably would've sunk Blair. Kinnock probably would've been a one termer and a Clarke win in 1997 would've seen off Labour for another two terms or so.
Romford? I know what you mean, but the "Essex, actually" aspect of Romford seems to be tailing off. It certainly used to be a place where people went to escape from London and shuddered at the thought of being reabsorbed. But many of the flighters have flown further out and been replaced by people looking for a convenient agreeable London suburb. Ten days until Elizabeth Line proper and all that.
(Political implications? The first cracks in the Conservative hegemony in Romford appeared in the May elections. It will see out Andrew Rosindell, and probably his successor. But not the one after that.)
I suspect the energy costs of recycling and reprinting actual paper is quite hight too.
Then we have to allow for the distribution of paper copies, in our case the last 3 miles is by a rather elderly 'paperboy' in his car. I feel sad for him tbh as his (hopefully) pin money job gradually dries up. But they'd be cancelling the delivery service to villages like ours once the old boy retires anyway, I expect.
Or is that a clever joke?