There's no way Reform are on 9% in London. Is that a mistake?
Subsamples are meaningless - no idea why Stuart persists with them, particularly given he was banned for several years for advertising ‘Caledonian cross-sections’…
I am still recovering from the shock of that heinous crime
I can’t see any Northern Ireland Assembly betting odds up yet. Smarkets had most seats available last time, with a grand total of under £13,000 bet. I presume if they get a new market up, the favourite will be Sinn Fein. Maybe there will be value there, particularly if some unionists bet with their hearts and not their heads on the DUP.
Fitting for Northern Ireland - the black sheep of political betting markets.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Oh, come on. Straw men are supposed to be slightly less transparent.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Which Christmas? Not so far-fetched Crimbo 2023.
Did you not count my elephants? They are not going away by Christmas 2023 or GE2025.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
I wouldn't expect to see a Tory lead other than in a rogue poll this side of the next GE.
The Tories on just 18% (!!) in the Midlands. Surely some kind of record low?
London Lab 46% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 9% Ref 9%
Rest of South Lab 52% Con 25% LD 10% Ref 6% Grn 5%
Midlands and Wales Lab 52% Con 18% Ref 10% LD 8% Grn 6% PC 3%
North Lab 55% Con 19% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 47% Lab 37% Con 7% LD 4% Ref 3%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,185; 26 October)
Quite striking that the Tories are now doing less badly in London than almost anywhere else. Also that there must be quite a few southeastern Blue Wall seats on those figures where Labour are in reality the main challengers even though Labour supporters are used to voting LibDem tactically. What were the overall figures?
Lab 51% Con 20% LD 9% Ref 7% SNP 5% Grn 5% PC 1% oth 3%
Yes, already we are seeing some Sunak trends: Con doing comparatively less badly in London, Con collapse in Midlands, and Reform sweeping up the racist vote.
Where do right-wingers hear about Reform? I never see it referred to anywhere but here, and have no idea who leads it or what its main campaigns are about. The bland name doesn't sound especially racist or right-wing, sop it's not spontaneous enthusiasm for something like Britain First. Getting 7% must mean that they are getting significant coverage, surely?
GB news , comments in youtube videos from GB news, Farage , etc .Leader (Richard Tice ) interviewed a lot on these types of shows. Its also not a racist party so would not have a nationalistic name
While ReFuk is not a racist party, it will be a safe haven for closet racists deserting the Sunak-led Tory Party.
It will be interesting to see just how many of them there are.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
I wouldn't expect to see a Tory lead other than in a rogue poll this side of the next GE.
Not just a rogue, but an absolute Leslie Phillips of a poll...
(And remember: before all of the recent excitement kicked off, before the Ukraine invasion, the UK economic projections didn't look great for 2023/4.)
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery. Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
The Labour Government of 1964 - 1970 contained many people of academic distinction - as well as other political heavyweights. In addition to Harold Wilson himself , we had Roy Jenkins, Denis Healey , James Callaghan, Richard Crossman, Anthony Crosland, Barbara Castle, Douglas Jay, Patrick Gordon Walker, Michael Stewart and Peter Shore. It was not,however, judged to have been a particularly successful Administration despite the many talents available to it.
I don't think any ministry from the 50s, 60s or 70s is well-regarded, suggesting there were structural problems in the transition from Empire to services hub.
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery. Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
On its own, perhaps just a silly decision.
Together with Sunak snubbing the meeting, and getting rid of the two cabinet posts related to climate change (plus installing the unfriendly Coffey at environment), it rather looks as though he is more than a bit sceptical about climate action.
For balance, my friend…The Prime Minister is WRONG not to go to COP. Global warming is the biggest crisis facing our planet and net zero creates many 1000s of jobs which is good for the economy. COP in Glasgow was most successful ever… but don’t expect media to report that
From latest YouGov - Conservatives still in the lead amongst over 65s. The theory is that people move to Tories as they get older but may be that they are gradually being replaced by non Tories!
18-24 25-49 50-64 65+ Con 8 14 29 40 Lab 61 63 45 34 Lib Dem 11 8 8 9
Patent nonsensical spin. Downing Street says it was ‘unanimously agreed’ with Palace that monarch would not attend ... The environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey, claimed this morning that it was up to the King whether he attends the climate summit in Egypt next month.
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery. Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
Good at keeping to his brief? Good at representing the government? (As far as I know, he's never represented a government before. Perhaps he practises in front of a mirror.) Won't go nuts? Won't start shooing people with his hand? (He's done it at least twice on film since his accession.)
He wants to have his cake and eat it. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out by the end of the year.
He's never influenced anyone. He loves natural order - what a tw*t.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
Must be the media doing a whitewash job on her. They should take a leaf out of the books of all these English people worrying their pretty (or otherwise) little heads about democracy and good government in Scotland.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
The "by Christmas" may have been poetic licence on my part. Nonetheless the ramblings I have read from many of the faithful, including Truss naysayers, are very excited, since Sunak's coronation, at the prospect of another (two in some cases) GE win (s) for Team Tory.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery. Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
Good at keeping to his brief? Good at representing the government? (As far as I know, he's never represented a government before. Perhaps he practises in front of a mirror.) Won't go nuts? Won't start shooing people with his hand? (He's done it at least twice on film since his accession.)
He wants to have his cake and eat it. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out by the end of the year.
He's never influenced anyone. He loves natural order - what a tw*t.
There's a general tendency of sycophancy in the world toward famous people particularly by the great and good at these events. We should either stick our most famous enviromentalist onto the stage whilst we flog ourselves toward net zero or just bin net zero if we're not going to take advantage of our most useful CO2 piece.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
The "by Christmas" may have been poetic licence on my part. Nonetheless the ramblings I have read from many of the faithful, including Truss naysayers, are very excited, since Sunak's coronation, at the prospect of another (two in some cases) GE win (s) for Team Tory.
There have been predictions of two more Tory GE victories?
There's no way Reform are on 9% in London. Is that a mistake?
Subsamples are meaningless - no idea why Stuart persists with them, particularly given he was banned for several years for advertising ‘Caledonian cross-sections’…
I am still recovering from the shock of that heinous crime
Aren’t we all? Many - indeed most - of us, will never achieve closure
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
The "by Christmas" may have been poetic licence on my part. Nonetheless the ramblings I have read from many of the faithful, including Truss naysayers, are very excited, since Sunak's coronation, at the prospect of another (two in some cases) GE win (s) for Team Tory.
I haven't read many, if any people, predicting even a Tory poll lead any time soon, let alone a comfortable one, and let alone by Christmas.
Can any of our finance experts confirm that the Bank of England will lose £10-11bn this year (paid for by the Treasury) because it is selling Government bonds at a lower price than it bought them for? This seems lunacy in the current circumstances.
Whoever you are getting your information from is an unreliable source you should stop listening to.
Luckyguy is (presumably) talking about the APF.
The decision to wind down the APF means selling government bonds. Since gilt rates are higher than during the programme of the APF buying rounds, their sale price is reduced. This is because they are less competitive with present bond issues by the Government (via the DMO), which carry a better yield.
£11bn may or may not be correct, it is a provision in the accounts for this.
I don't see the benefit to selling the bonds at a loss and having the taxpayer pick up the tab on that.
Holding the bonds to maturity but not renewing them would seem the wiser decision which is what other comparable Central Banks are doing.
I don't think it makes any difference to the purpose of selling the bonds, which is to take money out of the economy, whether they are sold at a loss or not.
Then the only question is how much money you want to take out of the economy and how quickly. With inflation at 10% I can see the argument for taking more money out of the economy more quickly, but I guess we'll see in a year or two whether the Bank is acting too quickly or not.
But today's inflation is a supply-side shock of imports costing dramatically more than they did, due to a global supply shock, due to a global shortage of fuel that we need to pay at global rates, not too much money in the local economy chasing too few local goods.
In these circumstances, taking money out at a cost to the taxpayer, rather than letting it expire at no cost, and rather than an interest rate rise which would help strengthen Sterling and reduce imported inflation, seems a rather perverse way of either tackling inflation or managing the economy.
If you let the debts expire and don't replace them it's still QT, just at a slower rate.
The Bank is clearly concerned that the jolt to inflation from the supply shock has rippled through the economy and become entrenched, thus requiring higher interest rates and QT to control. As the year has gone on I've tended more to that view, but who can be sure until we see it all play out?
I also tend to think that the policies implemented by the government to help people deal with the inflation produced by the supply shock is itself inflationary, and this has to be taken into account.
The Bank is so "concerned" that the rate rises its been putting in place have been shockingly puny and less than the Fed's, which is hammering Sterling, and thus making inflation worse.
Moderate QT via natural expirations, which is what other comparable CBs are doing, doesn't cost the taxpayer billions selling at a loss and putting up rates addresses the inflation issue, both imported and internal.
If it was putting up interest rates at a serious rate then perhaps we should be talking about selling bonds, but it hasn't. It is consistently waiting until after the Fed and then doing less than that.
QT and interest rates are both valid ways to control inflation. We might well find out that the Bank's more balanced approach, of using more QT instead of relying solely on interest rates, ends up producing a better outcome.
I don't know. But I'm fairly confident that looking at whether the bonds are sold at a loss or not is the wrong way to work out whether it's the right approach.
The problem with the Bank's approach is that the overwhelming majority of the inflation is imported, and imported inflation is worse if Sterling falls, better if Sterling rises. Putting up rates by less than the Fed makes Sterling fall which means anything priced in dollars (which is everything significantly affected by inflation) more expensive and increases inflation.
Other than the fact the Bank, alone in the world AFAIK, are actively selling gilts at a cost to taxpayers and putting up rates by less than the Fed - what reason is there to think its a good idea? I can not think of a single other Central Bank, anywhere in the world, that is doing that.
Looking at whether bonds are sold at a loss is relevant but not the only reason to think its a terrible idea. The fact that the inflation is imported and that rate rises sub-Fed levels makes Sterling fall and makes the inflation much worse is the bigger problem.
So the taxpayers are paying to pay for gilts to be sold at a loss, while inflation isn't tackled as rates aren't up as much as Fed rates. Why? How is that good?
To answer your questions. To agree with you, The Sunak government and the BoE are running scared from the consequences of interest rate increases in UK. The markets being nice at the moment is portrayed as Hunt and Sunak as great lion tamers, but the truth is the markets are becalmed because they expect 5% interest rates and higher gilts, the very thing the Sunak government is hiding under the desk scared of - anyone who isn’t expecting shit to hit fan very soon is totally deluded.
A couple of your points I do disagree with. The pound falling is actually inflationary. And all the QE of recent years, it’s impossible to do any of that without it being inflationary - it’s there in our social economy, stock markets, house prices etc
A few things:
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
"PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads" - colour me sceptical that such creatures ever existed outside your fevered imagination.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
While the Sunak government may not be such an out-and-out wanton destroyer of the natural world as its immediate predecessor, the days of "Vote Blue, Go Green" seem to be well behind us.
We need a Labour-led government (ideally with a sprinkle of Green) to get us back on track. And I don't just mean on climate change. Habitat loss, protection of protected & designated areas, conservation, biodiversity, aqueous pollution, urban sprawl, air quality, etc. All issues that I am expecting the next government to get right.
If this is correct then Russia is running out of good missiles for their jets. They are now down to the really rubbish stuff that they wouldn't be using unless they had no other choice.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
I suspect the backstory is that America has very large numbers of fucking lunatics who have bought so far into the MAGA narrative that they think they are doing their patriotic duty.
I fully understand and accept that I could be entirely wrong on this and it could be entirely unrelated to politics. But I am amazed that they don't have more of these sorts of attacks given the way Trump has thoroughly perverted the US political scene.
Thats a shame. It is a system that works well in many other EU countries and it seemed like a reasonable step towards reducing the large number of missed appointments.
Sitting in the Royal Concert Hall in Glasgow waiting for my daughter to graduate from the OU. An incredible range of graduates here today, way more than you would get at any other University but they are all beaming and proud and rightly so.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
Sitting in the Royal Concert Hall in Glasgow waiting for my daughter to graduate from the OU. An incredible range of graduates here today, way more than you would get at any other University but they are all beaming and proud and rightly so.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery. Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
I know he came to the throne very late but at 73 I think it is about a decade too early for Charles to be considered a fossil.
i have no great opinion on this either way (probably err on it being a reasonable thing to do ) but why is "not the time" - If the government thought it would cut Doctor waiting lists or even save NHS a bit of money why is it not? Sunak has a bit of a reputation for putting off hard decisions or giving bad news and this sort of confirms it
Thats a shame. It is a system that works well in many other EU countries and it seemed like a reasonable step towards reducing the large number of missed appointments.
I'd charge a refundable (if genuinely ill) fiver to deter lead-swingers. They do something similar in France.
Watching millions being spent on keeping my 87 year old father alive for six months with little prospect of decent life-quality has also led me down the road of aggressive rationing based on future longevity and potential quality of life.
Also after watching BBC Ambulance. "You are not a category one or two patient, so get a f******' taxi to A and E!"
i have no great opinion on this either way (probably err on it being a reasonable thing to do ) but why is "not the time" - If the government thought it would cut Doctor waiting lists or even save NHS a bit of money why is it not? Sunak has a bit of a reputation for putting off hard decisions or giving bad news and this sort of confirms it
perhaps he was concerned that it would be most heavily on the poorest, who might need to use not very reliable public transport to get to hospital rather than nice big efficient cars that will get there more or less when you want them to. And that wouldn't look great in the middle of a cost of living crisis if you're fighting poor unwell people lots of money for being ill and poor.
Not saying I necessarily think it would be that, but I can see how he might worry it will be interpreted that way.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
The scenario it brings to mind for me: on about 138 days last year Scotland generated everything it needed from renewables. On the other 230 or so days, it generated, say, 95% from renewables and 5% from elsewhere. That would fit with the stat (37.8% of days in the year) but the tweet reads very differently.
i have no great opinion on this either way (probably err on it being a reasonable thing to do ) but why is "not the time" - If the government thought it would cut Doctor waiting lists or even save NHS a bit of money why is it not? Sunak has a bit of a reputation for putting off hard decisions or giving bad news and this sort of confirms it
Because like the fracking debacle to win a vote it would need a contentious three line whip with lots of unhappy Tory MPs left with little option but to destabilise the government. Unsurprisingly Sunak not keen on that being repeated.
i have no great opinion on this either way (probably err on it being a reasonable thing to do ) but why is "not the time" - If the government thought it would cut Doctor waiting lists or even save NHS a bit of money why is it not? Sunak has a bit of a reputation for putting off hard decisions or giving bad news and this sort of confirms it
perhaps he was concerned that it would be most heavily on the poorest, who might need to use not very reliable public transport to get to hospital rather than nice big efficient cars that will get there more or less when you want them to. And that wouldn't look great in the middle of a cost of living crisis if you're fighting poor unwell people lots of money for being ill and poor.
Not saying I necessarily think it would be that, but I can see how he might worry it will be interpreted that way.
well sometimes you just got to accept a bit of criticism of any policy and whilst ,as I say, I have no great opinion on this particular policy, it shows we potentially have a weak PM and that is not good. Its actually a criticism you cannot level at Liz Truss who was too stubborn and tin eared . Can we please have somebody in the middle !
Sitting in the Royal Concert Hall in Glasgow waiting for my daughter to graduate from the OU. An incredible range of graduates here today, way more than you would get at any other University but they are all beaming and proud and rightly so.
Serious respect to them all. Not only academically tough but as I think @Carnyx pointed out most of them will have done it on top of work/family commitments as well. A really impressive achievement and I am delighted to hear they basking in their well-earned glory.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
I'm not doubting the stat, I'm doubting the way it is presented. Even that graph is hard to draw meaningful insights from.
It's surely more relevant what proportion of aggregate demand is met by renewables, rather than how much of the time the proportion is 100%. If its 95% the rest of the time, and there is any flow of energy across borders, that is a much more efficient place to be than overproducing renewables such that you always get 100% of demand.
BTW this isn't a partisan point, I'm not trying to defend the Scottish Govt particularly, I'm just a stats nerd.
i have no great opinion on this either way (probably err on it being a reasonable thing to do ) but why is "not the time" - If the government thought it would cut Doctor waiting lists or even save NHS a bit of money why is it not? Sunak has a bit of a reputation for putting off hard decisions or giving bad news and this sort of confirms it
perhaps he was concerned that it would be most heavily on the poorest, who might need to use not very reliable public transport to get to hospital rather than nice big efficient cars that will get there more or less when you want them to. And that wouldn't look great in the middle of a cost of living crisis if you're fighting poor unwell people lots of money for being ill and poor.
Not saying I necessarily think it would be that, but I can see how he might worry it will be interpreted that way.
I would imagine it's just impossible to police. Clearly they wouldn't want a situation where you have lots of people in court. If they policed it by stopping people booking appointments, then it wouldn't be long before someone died, or got really ill.
Then, for a large part of the population, £10 isn't a huge deal, and you fall into that problem where if something is charged for, it becomes fair game to do it.
It just sounds like a clever soundbite than was never going to become a real policy.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
From the article you cite "All former prime ministers are able to claim the Public Duty Costs Allowance (PDCA), currently set at a maximum of £115,000 per year." In the real world that is a lot.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
From the article you cite "All former prime ministers are able to claim the Public Duty Costs Allowance (PDCA), currently set at a maximum of £115,000 per year." In the real world that is a lot.
It's not a pension. It pays for office space and staff.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
From the article you cite "All former prime ministers are able to claim the Public Duty Costs Allowance (PDCA), currently set at a maximum of £115,000 per year." In the real world that is a lot.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
Liz Truss has not secured a massive pension for her 49 days as Prime Minister. The BBC have an article about it, though it doesn't give details about the ministerial pension scheme, it sounds like she won't have much additional entitlement for the 49 days as PM.
From the article you cite "All former prime ministers are able to claim the Public Duty Costs Allowance (PDCA), currently set at a maximum of £115,000 per year." In the real world that is a lot.
Yes, but it's an expense account, not paid to them for their personal use.
Survation with.... you know the drill Tories crawling towards 30 NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 51% (-1) CON 27% (+4) LD 8% (-3) SNP 5% (+1) GRN 2% (-1) Others 6% (-1)
Changes vs. 18-19 Oct.
Given Rish only became PM on Tuesday I would think Conservatives will be very encouraged to see the polls are already starting to move into their direction.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out exactly where this is going but clearly he's stopped the rot that set in the moment Liz took over.
What we have seen here is simply some of the'froth' disappearing . Labour leads of 35% were never going to be sustainable - even had Truss not been removed. There is little sign yet though of the substantial recovery enjoyed by the Tories at the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
The PB faithful anticipating comfortable Tory poll leads by Christmas seem to be ignoring the elephants in the room: Inflation, mortgage interest rates, state sector austerity, industrial strife and sluggish international trade.
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Are they really anticipating that? That's hilarious if so. They wee themselves saying nobody else has ever recovered from a 30% poll deficit, tell everyone what issues they predict the 2030 GE will be fought on when Starmer apparently seeks a second term, and a few weeks later they get stiffies at the prospect of leading Labour in the polls by Christmas. All while calling other people "bedwetters" at the drop of a hat. What an embarrassment...
Starmer went from being more than 20% behind to 30% in front.
I suspect that he would have to fuck up massively for Sunak to recover that much, and I don't see many opportunities for the opposition to mess up when they're not making decisions.
Either Starmer turns out to be part of a satanic cult, or we have some kind of huge event of the Covid kind/nuclear war in Ukraine, which allows the govt to do something unusual - otherwise it seems unlikely.
@kylegriffin1 Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
I suspect the backstory is that America has very large numbers of fucking lunatics who have bought so far into the MAGA narrative that they think they are doing their patriotic duty.
I fully understand and accept that I could be entirely wrong on this and it could be entirely unrelated to politics. But I am amazed that they don't have more of these sorts of attacks given the way Trump has thoroughly perverted the US political scene.
The people who believe in "weather manipulation" by the "Deep State" to explain hurricanes in Red States on the Gulf.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
I'm not doubting the stat, I'm doubting the way it is presented. Even that graph is hard to draw meaningful insights from. It's surely more relevant what proportion of aggregate demand is met by renewables, rather than how much of the time the proportion is 100%. If its 95% the rest of the time, and there is any flow of energy across borders, that is a much more efficient place to be than overproducing renewables such that you always get 100% of demand.
BTW this isn't a partisan point, I'm not trying to defend the Scottish Govt particularly, I'm just a stats nerd.
As I understand the various statements I think the situation is that Scotland generates x TWh of electricity from renewables and uses y TWh of electricity over a year, where x ~ y, but in order to be self-sufficient on renewables only Scotland would require 100% efficient electricity storage with a very large storage capacity and storage lifetime to be able to timeshift production to meet demand.
It's a pretty good position for Scotland to be in and compares favourably with, say, Ireland, which has a similar size population.
If this is correct then Russia is running out of good missiles for their jets. They are now down to the really rubbish stuff that they wouldn't be using unless they had no other choice.
Does it matter? There is almost no air to air combat over Ukraine because the entire area is flooded with SAM systems and both sides suck at SEAD. Both air forces are largely sitting this out.
There have only been 3 verified air to air kills in the entire SMO which is pretty amazing when you consider the duration and intensity.
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 19h Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?
Andrew Sullivan @sullydish Replying to @GoodwinMJ Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af. 3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022 ·Twitter Web App"
The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.
You can add Scotland and Wales.
I am sure that’s true. Spain is a country I know very well and the way it is covered here is absolutely abysmal. The recent coverage of the French presidential election in the UK was just awful. How anyone working for the Telegraph or Spectator could get upset about US coverage of the UK given their coverage of France is beyond me. And let’s not forget that one former UK PM made his name by writing lies about the EU. The hypocrisy is off the charts!
Tell us: what should we know about Spain, and how should it be covered?
I would start with measures that UK citizens are now subject to in Spain that they were not previously. It’s not because they’re being singled out in revenge for Brexit, it’s because they’re not citizens of an EU member state and so are subject to different laws if they want to visit, settle, drive, take their pets etc.
Yeah but we already know this, and the point is quite a boring one. Particularly because grinding your axe about Brexit is your bread & butter.
How do I get under the skin of modern Spain? What should we know about it? Where do we go to find out more? What do they think about themselves? How do they see the future?
Sincere questions.
If you want to know more about modern Spain, you will generally struggle to find much in English. Giles Tremlett has just written a decent, very breathless, potted history of Spain that is worth a read. For me, the best historian of the country writing in English is Paul Preston.
In terms of general themes for Spain:
1. Catalan nationalism and its interaction with Spanish nationalism is absolutely pivotal to what has happened there for the last 200 years. You cannot begin to understand Spain without knowing that. Most recently it has led to the rise of Spain’s first post-Franco far-right party, Vox. 2. The environment - much of central and eastern Spain is on course to becoming semi-desert. Long-term water shortages are changing the country. But at the same time it could become a solar and wind energy superpower. 3. Immigration. There has been a huge influx of Latin Americans into Spain over recent years, alongside smaller but significant arrivals from Africa - North and sub-Saharan. How that plays out will be fascinating, but it’s likely to lead to major change. Start with those three, but there’s so much more.
I was in Madrid over the weekend, and took the chance to see the paintings of Goya. He captures brilliantly, the sheer stupidity and arrogance of Ferdinand VII 'El Rey Felone'. And then his later works are absolutely nightmarish.
If you want to get a clearer insight into the agonies and atrocities of Ukraine, a bit of time with Goya’s Peninsular War stuff should do it.
Some French commanders behaved like the Nazis towards the Spanish population. They viewed the Spanish as savages and acted accordingly.
In post-war memoirs, French officers were keen to stress that they fought a clean war, whereas all the atrocities were on the part of the guerillas. Rather like the Myth of the Clean Wehrmact, it became the dominant historical narrative for a time.
Without question, the guerillas could be cruel, but they weren't as brutal as the French were.
By contrast, in the toilet of a film that is The Patriot the character modelled on Banastre Tarleton is portrayed burning down a church filled with American civilians - an incident that never took place and is modelled on what Nazi SS soldiers did to a French village in 1944.
Naturally, it's believed though. Film is a very powerful propaganda medium.
Even in the 1770's, that would have been considered a war crime. And, as you say, it's quite untrue.
Marshal Suchet, the most successful commander in Spain, drove prisoners before him as human shields, carried out mass executions of male civilians, in retaliation for guerilla killings, and burned villages to the ground. Rape was routine.
By the far the worst aspect of the war for the Spanish, though, was pillage. Napoleon's soldiers lived off the land. In places like Germany, or Northern Italy, that was unpleasant for the population, but bearable. In a places as arid as Spain, it meant that the population starved.
Otoh here is a twitter thread with some testimony on the behaviour of British troops in the C18th in their own words.
'We're encamped near the ruins of Fort Augustus, our tents among the cattle of a thousand hills, for our parties hourly bring in large droves. Every tent has it's goat or two. Our fellows grow so fat they'll seem like strangers to a campaign soon. We're amongst hills, some are 7 miles high. Yet daily we erect pyramids higher than those made of smoke. Thirty houses are now burning in my view. Glorious fireworks! Major Lockart's back from Glenmoriston where he killed 17, hanged some by their heels, burnt 400 houses & drove back 1400 cattle. Lord Sackville does the same in Glenshiel. Glengarry broke his word to turn in his men so his house & land are now blazing. We have 11 regiments of foot & Kingston's horse. The rest are dispersed through this heathenish country, converting them to Christianity & propagating a new light amongst them. Some of them bring in their arms, others skulk in the mountains... We take care to leave nothing they can eat, unless they can browse like their goats.
Thomas Ashe Lee Captain Wolfe's 8th Regiment of Foot 1746 (The 'Pacification' of the Highlands in the aftermath of Culloden)'
I think that even by the standards of his time, the Duke of Cumberland was a piece of shit.
For example, he had captured Jacobite officers hanged, drawn, and quartered, at Manchester. While the punishment was still on statute books, the norm would have been a soldier's death by firing squad.
But, even he didn't go so far as locking people in a church and setting fire to it.
That we know of , likely had plenty burnt in their homes. A real nasty Tory unionist arse to be sure.
Actually, he was a Whig, and it was the Tories who called him 'Butcher Cumberland' and 'Stinking Billy'.
1/ Remarkable FOI response here. Scot Gov admits it cannot justify a statement made by Sturgeon at FMQs recently, because the statement wasn’t true. Sturgeon has quietly corrected the Official Report…
2/… but the correction is a bait and switch. Her original statement gave the impression that Scotland’s electricity consumption is entirely renewable.
But the correction sneaks in a critical word - *equivalent* - which completely changes the meaning of what was said.
3/ It’s obvious what is going on here. Senior SNP politicians have been engaged in a systematic campaign of misinformation: trying to confuse voters into believing that Scotland can meet demand entirely from its own renewable electricity.
4/ In fact, recent revisions to Scot Gov data show that Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021.
So Sturgeon is a liar with a terrible memory? No surprise. During covid she took the easy path (getting briefings from the scientific advisors and then speaking to Scotland before the 4 pm UK national briefing. She portrayed a more measured image than Johnson - that's not hard. But ultimately she, in my opinion, lied to that enquiry about 'not recalling' events, or if not a lie, then her memory is truly terrible.
Why is she so feted?
For the same reason that some people are now surprised that Sunak is right-wing. She annoys all the right people, and so she must be a good egg.
Pedantry alert!
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
The scenario it brings to mind for me: on about 138 days last year Scotland generated everything it needed from renewables. On the other 230 or so days, it generated, say, 95% from renewables and 5% from elsewhere. That would fit with the stat (37.8% of days in the year) but the tweet reads very differently.
They like their fibs about Scotland on here big time. Nothing can ever be successful in Scotland no matter what kind of whopper you need to give out to rubbish it.
Comments
That will show "Westminster".
The funny thing is that almost anyone who isn't a YeSNPer can see exactly what they are.
Speaker Pelosi's office says that Pelosi's husband, Paul, was "violently assaulted" by an assailant who broke into the Pelosi residence early this morning. "The assailant is in custody and the motivation for the attack is under investigation." Paul Pelosi is in the hospital.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1585975982032556034
Of course they may be correct, but colour me sceptical.
Black swans, that's what you need.
It will be interesting to see just how many of them there are.
(Too many)
(And remember: before all of the recent excitement kicked off, before the Ukraine invasion, the UK economic projections didn't look great for 2023/4.)
Bit of a bizarre decision - most other nations like to grandstand their clean credentials, take the praises and then head off home to pollute to buggery.
Trudeau at COP 26 probably a good example of this.
We seem to be taking the opposite approach, locking up our most influential speaker on his favourite subject whilst also throttling our own fossil potential.
Together with Sunak snubbing the meeting, and getting rid of the two cabinet posts related to climate change (plus installing the unfriendly Coffey at environment), it rather looks as though he is more than a bit sceptical about climate action.
From latest YouGov - Conservatives still in the lead amongst over 65s. The theory is that people move to Tories as they get older but may be that they are gradually being replaced by non Tories!
18-24 25-49 50-64 65+
Con 8 14 29 40
Lab 61 63 45 34
Lib Dem 11 8 8 9
Downing Street says it was ‘unanimously agreed’ with Palace that monarch would not attend
...
The environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey, claimed this morning that it was up to the King whether he attends the climate summit in Egypt next month.
Good at representing the government? (As far as I know, he's never represented a government before. Perhaps he practises in front of a mirror.)
Won't go nuts?
Won't start shooing people with his hand? (He's done it at least twice on film since his accession.)
He wants to have his cake and eat it.
I wouldn't be surprised if he's out by the end of the year.
He's never influenced anyone.
He loves natural order - what a tw*t.
Whether any are directly pertinent is a matter of conjecture.
1. The Fed / The Biden Administration doesn't care what happens with the rest of the world, their focus is on the US and specifically the Midterms. So running our interest rate policy as a slave to US political considerations is not a great way. By the way, the Bank of Japan has been doing the opposite and reducing interest rates (but they needed inflation).
2. There is a major difference between the US and UK mortgage markets in that US mortgages are typically 30 year fixed while UK ones are 2/3/5. Hence the panic here amongst homeowners about rising rates but not in the US, where rates have gone higher. Put them up to US levels and you would have a bloodbath.
3. As BR says, the inflation is imported but it's actually, in a number of cases, an artificial case since the prices of many commodities in $ terms is falling. The problem is because of the strength of the $, the £ cost is not coming down.
The simplest thing would be for the Fed / the Administration to stop jacking up interest rates to show they are doing something before the midterms.
I agree that in the age of SM it takes people with extremely thick skins to put themselves forward - however living as I do in Chester I am aware of quite a few people lining up for the byelection. There is no shortage of applicants here.
But how about we look at what is wrong with the system that produces these people instead of just bemoaning the quality output? How about FPTP which allows lazy buffoons to sit happily on their huge majorities safe in the knowledge that only a Kamikwaze Trussquake can move them out as long as they tow the party line and keep the whips happy.....?
And please don't make us weep for their job security. Has not Liz Truss secured a massive pension for her 40 odd days of work?
We need a Labour-led government (ideally with a sprinkle of Green) to get us back on track. And I don't just mean on climate change. Habitat loss, protection of protected & designated areas, conservation, biodiversity, aqueous pollution, urban sprawl, air quality, etc. All issues that I am expecting the next government to get right.
The prime minister's spokesperson said "now is not the time to take this policy forward".
https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-backtracks-on-pledge-to-fine-patients-16310-for-missed-gp-appointments-12732266
1/ #Russia’s fighters now carry the newer #R37 / #AA13. This is not a menace, but rather another act of desperation. Here’s why:
https://twitter.com/JeffFisch/status/1585984609262575616
I fully understand and accept that I could be entirely wrong on this and it could be entirely unrelated to politics. But I am amazed that they don't have more of these sorts of attacks given the way Trump has thoroughly perverted the US political scene.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63350359
Watching millions being spent on keeping my 87 year old father alive for six months with little prospect of decent life-quality has also led me down the road of aggressive rationing based on future longevity and potential quality of life.
Also after watching BBC Ambulance. "You are not a category one or two patient, so get a f******' taxi to A and E!"
Not saying I necessarily think it would be that, but I can see how he might worry it will be interpreted that way.
"Scottish renewable generation was capable of meeting Scottish demand just 37.8% of the time in 2021"
Sorry if I've missed someone else saying this, but that stands out as a remarkably dodgy stat.
The scenario it brings to mind for me: on about 138 days last year Scotland generated everything it needed from renewables. On the other 230 or so days, it generated, say, 95% from renewables and 5% from elsewhere. That would fit with the stat (37.8% of days in the year) but the tweet reads very differently.
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1585937106207227910
They don’t turn their nuclear power stations off on windy days, to turn them back on again when it’s calm.
NEW THREAD
It's surely more relevant what proportion of aggregate demand is met by renewables, rather than how much of the time the proportion is 100%. If its 95% the rest of the time, and there is any flow of energy across borders, that is a much more efficient place to be than overproducing renewables such that you always get 100% of demand.
BTW this isn't a partisan point, I'm not trying to defend the Scottish Govt particularly, I'm just a stats nerd.
Then, for a large part of the population, £10 isn't a huge deal, and you fall into that problem where if something is charged for, it becomes fair game to do it.
It just sounds like a clever soundbite than was never going to become a real policy.
I suspect that he would have to fuck up massively for Sunak to recover that much, and I don't see many opportunities for the opposition to mess up when they're not making decisions.
Either Starmer turns out to be part of a satanic cult, or we have some kind of huge event of the Covid kind/nuclear war in Ukraine, which allows the govt to do something unusual - otherwise it seems unlikely.
It's a pretty good position for Scotland to be in and compares favourably with, say, Ireland, which has a similar size population.
There have only been 3 verified air to air kills in the entire SMO which is pretty amazing when you consider the duration and intensity.