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Lessons from history – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageLessons from history – politicalbetting.com

In 1872, Mr Benjamin Disraeli (as he then was) made one of his famous savage attacks on the Liberal Party. In it, he famously characterised Gladstone’s cabinet as ‘a range of exhausted volcanoes.’

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Great thread. Spot on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Second, like Sunak at the GE...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    "Elon Musk completes $44bn Twitter takeover

    The world's richest man, Elon Musk, has completed his $44bn (£38.1bn) takeover of Twitter, according to US media and an investor in the firm. He tweeted "the bird is freed," in an apparent reference to the deal closing. A number of top executives, including the boss, Parag Agrawal, have reportedly been fired. It brings to a close a saga that saw Twitter go to court to hold the billionaire to the terms of a takeover deal that he had tried to escape. Twitter has not yet confirmed the takeover, but an early investor in the company told the BBC that the deal had been completed."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63402338
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
    You make it sound as if economic problems are a novelty that we've never experienced over the past 50 years.

    If Heath could win 37% during the Miners' Strike and 25% inflation, and Callaghan could win 37% after the Winter of Discontent, this government will clear 30%+ pretty easily, come the next election.
    Absolutely zero chance of that. First reason, What % of votes did the leading two share in 74 and 79 compared to recent elections.? Second reason you handed us on a plate talking seventies, it’s now an economy and generation of households used to zero interest rates, no inflation, and government printing money since 2000, makes the coming year more of a future shock. Third reason, how much blame did voters give Heath and Callaghan? First term governments, unions causing black outs not the government, I suspect voters didn’t blame government completely for it, compared to the ridiculous time of it the Tories have had of it in recent months setting themselves up for ALL the blame for this coming pain.

    Keep watching that Tory vote share, if they can’t break 30 during this honeymoon the writings on the wall.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    On Topic. I did read it. I gobbled up the cool history bits. But on the politics, all this turbulence and friction that’s been building up, channelled upward through conduits and finally escaping through the vent of a PB header, that’s at times roaring or rumbling or hissing with disgust and frustration over the whole world, over everything.

    And then the enigmatic question mark on the end, asking us, is this a header from a freelance history teacher? or from a grumpy mound of magma, with too much time on its hands? 🙂
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 28
    Sorry to go off topic so soon, @ydoethur

    But…

    Start spangled gamblers podcast discussion on the regulatory position re: prediction markets;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/star-spangled-gamblers/id1437934639

    ~40mins in

    … what a load of bullshit! They’re trying to present political betting as some kind of altruistic act. It’s not. It’s just degenerate gambling at heart. Whether it should be allowed or not should be a question of whether it corrupts the political system.

    In the British experience, there isn’t much evidence of that to date. But I think we’re just one scandal away from it being banned over here.

    I’m pretty sure if the yanks give it the green light, there will soon be scandals. And they’re more likely to be exposed.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 28
    edited October 28
    It looks as if there was some excitement about Rishi Sunak's favorability ratings but I am very surprised those were not higher given the universal blanket coverage on him for 3 days almost all positive.

    Your Labour party have very big leads and the LESSONS FROM HISTORY is right. This will not end well for the Conservatives.

    When will that election be? January 2025 is unlikely because campaigning over Christmas and New Year is unthinkable and will they really want to go for an autumn election at a time of austerity? It is not like the Brexit one when your Boris wanted to get something done (aka shit on the British).

    So 18 months. Spring 2024.

    Except I think it could be sooner. As the shine comes off Sunak and the wear and tear continues so the discontented factions will end their phoney peace. All hell will break out again. Maybe not next month. Maybe not at Christmas. But it will. The moment things start going badly as is inevitable, and the shine fades from the public eye, the knives will be out for the guy who stabbed their hero in the back and front.

    Next year is not off the cards. Most likely spring 2024 but don't rule out 2023.

    The biggest thing holding it back is the now inevitable electoral disaster facing the Conservatives.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    On Topic. I did read it. I gobbled up the cool history bits. But on the politics, all this turbulence and friction that’s been building up, channelled upward through conduits and finally escaping through the vent of a PB header, that’s at times roaring or rumbling or hissing with disgust and frustration over the whole world, over everything.

    And then the enigmatic question mark on the end, asking us, is this a header from a freelance history teacher? or from a grumpy mound of magma, with too much time on its hands? 🙂

    ...harsh...

    :smiley:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    On Topic. I did read it. I gobbled up the cool history bits. But on the politics, all this turbulence and friction that’s been building up, channelled upward through conduits and finally escaping through the vent of a PB header, that’s at times roaring or rumbling or hissing with disgust and frustration over the whole world, over everything.

    And then the enigmatic question mark on the end, asking us, is this a header from a freelance history teacher? or from a grumpy mound of magma, with too much time on its hands? 🙂

    You write the last paragraph as if it was a bad thing….

    Perhaps in this neglected spot is laid
    Some heart once pregnant with celestial fire;
    Hands, that the rod of empire might have sway'd,
    Or wak'd to ecstasy the living lyre.

    But Knowledge to their eyes her ample page
    Rich with the spoils of time did ne'er unroll;
    Chill Penury repress'd their noble rage,
    And froze the genial current of the soul.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.

    I think the exhaustion we are seeing in British politics is perhaps symptomatic of western politics in general. But I don't know if it really matters all that much. The bigger story is in Foreign affairs, in Ukraine and with the reinvigoration of NATO. That is something that the tories really can take credit for. Particularly given where we may have been were Corbyn to have won in 2019.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    edited October 28
    darkage said:

    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.

    I think the exhaustion we are seeing in British politics is perhaps symptomatic of western politics in general. But I don't know if it really matters all that much. The bigger story is in Foreign affairs, in Ukraine and with the reinvigoration of NATO. That is something that the tories really can take credit for. Particularly given where we may have been were Corbyn to have won in 2019.

    I agree with your thesis that the best and brightest have given politics a wide birth for a number of years now.

    This tends to mean that "competent managerialism" is the best we can hope for.

    However, I disagree that "competent managerialism" won't work for Starmer against Sunak.

    Sunak has already shown his weakness on that front, and his Party (after a decade in power) are beyond management. His reputation for competence and management, such as it is, will more likely erode over time, rather than enhance.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Andy_JS said:

    ping said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon, @ydoethur

    But…

    Start spangled gamblers podcast discussion on the regulatory position re: prediction markets;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/star-spangled-gamblers/id1437934639

    ~40mins in

    … what a load of bullshit! They’re trying to present political betting as some kind of altruistic act. It’s not. It’s just degenerate gambling at heart. Whether it should be allowed or not should be a question of whether it corrupts the political system.

    In the British experience, there isn’t much evidence of that to date. But I think we’re just one scandal away from it being banned over here.

    I’m pretty sure if the yanks give it the green light, there will soon be scandals. And they’re more likely to be exposed.

    Maybe this isn't the best site for you if you think political betting is degenerate. 🙂
    Probably just gathering evidence for this thesis by reading our posts!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    darkage said:

    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality.

    I made that point in the thread header…and also an argument as to why it isn’t actually important.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,301
    Midterms - Will it be a Red (republican) wave?
    This poll may give us hope that it may not be.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-34IOpjos0
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon, @ydoethur
    .

    I GOT A PREDICTION RIGHT!

    I said to TSE it might be five whole posts before we went off topic and it was!
    It usually happens after one post. Thanks for the header.
  • A couple of quick factual corrections in the article.

    Firstly, Neil Hamilton was never a cabinet minister (nor attending cabinet).

    Secondly, Gordon Brown's final cabinet had three members of the Lords, not seven (there were three more attending cabinet, but not members of it). You say "one of the few from the House of Commons" was Bob Ainsworth... he was actually one of 21.

    The broad thrust of the article has some sense in it, but the inaccuracies don't particularly help.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,124
    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    On topic, I agree with the central thesis that the public can detect a dormant (extinct?) Volcano.

    Once that happens, no amount of "success" changes the outcome. It becomes a settled attitude. The only thing that can prevent it is a profound fear of change (c.f. 1992)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    I wonder if we need to think of ways to make politics work better despite poor politicians, rather than think of ways to encourage better people to become politicians.

    So, for example, the budget process. The system used in Ireland is worth looking at. There they have a summer economic statement where the various economic forecasts are laid out, and the room for manoeuvre for the government, in terms of money available for policy decisions, or required to be raised by policy decisions is specified. There's then a period where an open debate over priorities can be had, with all sorts of organisations external to the Dail able to contribute. And then the government announces its budget.

    I think it's a structure which is more open, allows more people from outside professional politics and government to contribute to the debate, and it's set out the right way round. The economic forecasts come first, which helps dispel any suspicion that they might be tweaked to fit the policy decisions. It should make it harder for poor politicians, like Truss and Kwarteng, to make a complete horlicks of the economy.

    Citizens' assemblies are another thing that have been used in Ireland to essentially provide outside help to Irish politicians so that they can make progress on difficult and contentious topics.

    If you have these mechanisms so that governance of the country is not solely in the hands of the most popular of two party leaders (and their best mates), then you are less reliant on having an exceptionally gifted leader in the right place at the right time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    mwadams said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ping said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon, @ydoethur

    But…

    Start spangled gamblers podcast discussion on the regulatory position re: prediction markets;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/star-spangled-gamblers/id1437934639

    ~40mins in

    … what a load of bullshit! They’re trying to present political betting as some kind of altruistic act. It’s not. It’s just degenerate gambling at heart. Whether it should be allowed or not should be a question of whether it corrupts the political system.

    In the British experience, there isn’t much evidence of that to date. But I think we’re just one scandal away from it being banned over here.

    I’m pretty sure if the yanks give it the green light, there will soon be scandals. And they’re more likely to be exposed.

    Maybe this isn't the best site for you if you think political betting is degenerate. 🙂
    Probably just gathering evidence for this thesis by reading our posts!
    Might that not just prove that political betters are degenerates?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    I’m disappointed nobody’s picked up on the enormous number of spelling and grammar errors.

    There is a reason for this. It was actually dictated using audio software as an experiment. I didn’t have a lot of time to check it (which goes some way to explaining the other inaccuracies) so a fair number still seem to be in.

    It’s interesting to note that it really struggles to distinguish words that don’t even sound that similar. So Liz Truss can’t attest to the job insecurity as I wanted her to. And Attlee somehow became atlee (whatever that is).

    Dictation software may be the way to go for the future particularly for those with dyslexia but ti has some way to go to get there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Allegedly Musk is going to reverse all lifetime bans from Twitter.

    It will be interesting is see if/which companies and ad agencies stop using Twitter.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927
    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    A good read. Well done Y Doethur.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    There is money (more than in politics), fame, respect, a degree of safety from assassination, and fairly agreeable life if you like north London in fields you might call para-politics.

    This is the life of having a media profile, views, public discourse ability and the capacity to know and say something about a lot. It is a huge industry. Some make loads.

    Think of the lives and fates of Martin Lewis, Paxman, Nick Robinson, Jessica Elgot, James Forsyth, Peter Oborne, Jim Naughtie, Jonathan Freedland, Robert Chote, Paul Johnson, Torsten Bell, Matthew Parris, Matthew Goodwin, Stephen Bush.

    There are hundreds of them, and many of them are outstanding. Radio, TV, podcasts, academia, policy wonk outfits (by the hundred), even print media.

    You could assemble from them 10 cabinets of greater ability than our present one, or SKS's.

    The single key is that power and fame without political responsibility is loads more fun and lucrative than risking a parliament career.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    NYT has released some individual Congressional seat polls which combined with Cook Report information paints an intriguing picture that totally aligns with my priors.

    Basically if you are a Dem in a swing district in a red state you are doing well. If you are a Dem in a swing district in a Blue state you are fucked.

    100% classic American suburban swing voter behaviour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Jonathan said:

    I like the way they have name tags in the photo and some of them are facing inwards to remind the minister what their job currently is, such is the recent chaos.

    I’m intrigued to note Hunt is next to the PM rather than opposite. Is that a new thing or was it a Cam/Os innovation?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    edited October 28
    deleted

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,177
    edited October 28
    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon, @ydoethur
    .

    I GOT A PREDICTION RIGHT!

    I said to TSE it might be five whole posts before we went off topic and it was!
    To add to the analogy, as a volcano develops, the magma gets thicker and the eruptions more explosive and damaging, before becoming dormant. Seems to be what’s happening with the Conservatives.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    I enjoyed the article. Thanks Y.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    He was just checking to see if you and Sir Norfolk were concentrating
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Roger said:

    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    He was just checking to see if you and Sir Norfolk were concentrating
    Damnit, why didn’t I think of that excuse?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    darkage said:

    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.

    Labour's problem is that there was little intake in 2019, and those few were often of very low calibre, such as my local Claudia Webbe. Hence there are a lot of Miliband retreads and old familiar faces. Thanks to 2019 the PLP have a n old group of MPs compared to Tories. The next GE may well reverse that of course.

    I think though that @ydoethur in his interesting header is wearing his rose tinted specs. Parliament has always had a lot of nonentities, yes-men, careerists and time-servers. It is only the veneer of time that makes previous cabinets such as the 1997 New Labour one look good.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    algarkirk said:

    There is money (more than in politics), fame, respect, a degree of safety from assassination, and fairly agreeable life if you like north London in fields you might call para-politics.

    This is the life of having a media profile, views, public discourse ability and the capacity to know and say something about a lot. It is a huge industry. Some make loads.

    Think of the lives and fates of Martin Lewis, Paxman, Nick Robinson, Jessica Elgot, James Forsyth, Peter Oborne, Jim Naughtie, Jonathan Freedland, Robert Chote, Paul Johnson, Torsten Bell, Matthew Parris, Matthew Goodwin, Stephen Bush.

    There are hundreds of them, and many of them are outstanding. Radio, TV, podcasts, academia, policy wonk outfits (by the hundred), even print media.

    You could assemble from them 10 cabinets of greater ability than our present one, or SKS's.

    The single key is that power and fame without political responsibility is loads more fun and lucrative than risking a parliament career.

    Some people want to be decision makers though. It is usually a religious (or pseudo-religious) impulse that drives them. In my experience some form of senior public sector employment (direct or indirect) where you actually make things happen is more rewarding than being a politician, if you can live with the injustice of others taking the credit for your work.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,177
    Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.


  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 28

    On Topic. I did read it. I gobbled up the cool history bits. But on the politics, all this turbulence and friction that’s been building up, channelled upward through conduits and finally escaping through the vent of a PB header, that’s at times roaring or rumbling or hissing with disgust and frustration over the whole world, over everything.

    And then the enigmatic question mark on the end, asking us, is this a header from a freelance history teacher? or from a grumpy mound of magma, with too much time on its hands? 🙂

    You seem to be several differnt personas in one poster. I like this one. Very poetic
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,124
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like the way they have name tags in the photo and some of them are facing inwards to remind the minister what their job currently is, such is the recent chaos.

    I’m intrigued to note Hunt is next to the PM rather than opposite. Is that a new thing or was it a Cam/Os innovation?
    I imagine that’s because we again have a DPM (Raab) who now sits opposite the PM.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like the way they have name tags in the photo and some of them are facing inwards to remind the minister what their job currently is, such is the recent chaos.

    I’m intrigued to note Hunt is next to the PM rather than opposite. Is that a new thing or was it a Cam/Os innovation?
    I imagine that’s because we again have a DPM (Raab) who now sits opposite the PM.
    Raab navigated the chaos rather well didn’t he, perhaps there is more to him than meets the eye. (Not hard).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    I’m disappointed nobody’s picked up on the enormous number of spelling and grammar errors.

    There is a reason for this. It was actually dictated using audio software as an experiment. I didn’t have a lot of time to check it (which goes some way to explaining the other inaccuracies) so a fair number still seem to be in.

    It’s interesting to note that it really struggles to distinguish words that don’t even sound that similar. So Liz Truss can’t attest to the job insecurity as I wanted her to. And Attlee somehow became atlee (whatever that is).

    Dictation software may be the way to go for the future particularly for those with dyslexia but ti has some way to go to get there.
    Having written a few headers myself, I am aware now of what a skill proof reading is. A few spelling, grammatical and non-sequiters always seem to get through.

    One useful tip from Antifrank is to always put in a weird word, so you can find it easily again via Google. A search for "politicalbetting volcano atlee"will find it in a trice.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    Hmmm. Was there really a website that existed solely to watch *your* every move, criticise everything *you* did, and retweeted every tiny bit of information about *you*?

    Thanks for the article, BTW. To one of your questions about why politicians are of low quality, I'd put more emphasis on ideological purity. For four or five years, Labour selected a load of people who were total incompetents - but were solidly Corbynite. Likewise, as you state the Conservatives have been concerned more about Brexit purity than sane government, and have forced out a load of people who did not think Europe was the source of all the country's ills.

    Both parties need to become broader churches.

    I'd also argue that some politicians who are widely derided aren't as bad as they are made out. Gove is a classic example of this: he is widely hated, but also one of the better performers.

    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like the way they have name tags in the photo and some of them are facing inwards to remind the minister what their job currently is, such is the recent chaos.

    I’m intrigued to note Hunt is next to the PM rather than opposite. Is that a new thing or was it a Cam/Os innovation?
    I imagine that’s because we again have a DPM (Raab) who now sits opposite the PM.
    AIR Brown sat opposite Blair even though Prescott was in the cabinet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    Hmmm. Was there really a website that existed solely to watch *your* every move, criticise everything *you* did, and retweeted every tiny bit of information about *you*?

    Thanks for the article, BTW. To one of your questions about why politicians are of low quality, I'd put more emphasis on ideological purity. For four or five years, Labour selected a load of people who were total incompetents - but were solidly Corbynite. Likewise, as you state the Conservatives have been concerned more about Brexit purity than sane government, and have forced out a load of people who did not think Europe was the source of all the country's ills.

    Both parties need to become broader churches.

    I'd also argue that some politicians who are widely derided aren't as bad as they are made out. Gove is a classic example of this: he is widely hated, but also one of the better performers.

    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    There are websites that do that for teachers, yes. Rate My Teacher springs to mind. But TikTok is also something of a problem although it has wider purposes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    When you sit around a table in Spain they go Chico Chica Chico Chica Chico Chica......

    ....this looks more like an Orthodox Synagogue
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    darkage said:

    algarkirk said:

    There is money (more than in politics), fame, respect, a degree of safety from assassination, and fairly agreeable life if you like north London in fields you might call para-politics.

    This is the life of having a media profile, views, public discourse ability and the capacity to know and say something about a lot. It is a huge industry. Some make loads.

    Think of the lives and fates of Martin Lewis, Paxman, Nick Robinson, Jessica Elgot, James Forsyth, Peter Oborne, Jim Naughtie, Jonathan Freedland, Robert Chote, Paul Johnson, Torsten Bell, Matthew Parris, Matthew Goodwin, Stephen Bush.

    There are hundreds of them, and many of them are outstanding. Radio, TV, podcasts, academia, policy wonk outfits (by the hundred), even print media.

    You could assemble from them 10 cabinets of greater ability than our present one, or SKS's.

    The single key is that power and fame without political responsibility is loads more fun and lucrative than risking a parliament career.

    Some people want to be decision makers though. It is usually a religious (or pseudo-religious) impulse that drives them. In my experience some form of senior public sector employment (direct or indirect) where you actually make things happen is more rewarding than being a politician, if you can live with the injustice of others taking the credit for your work.
    True. That's another army of people who are not politicians, which again diminishes the pool.

    Politicians have to deal with reality in a unique way. Everyone else turns each issue into a single matter. Poverty? Give them more money. Climate change? Ban stuff and compel other stuff. Houses? Build lots somewhere. Etc.

    Politicians have to both deal with problems on both sides of the ledger (taxing as well as spending); and keep a level of public support from public who can both change their minds instantly (Brexit?) and want great public services without paying for them.

    Much easier to run the Resolution Foundation or write for the Guardian.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    We live in very ideological times. Brexit is ideology. Almost theological.
  • ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    He was just checking to see if you and Sir Norfolk were concentrating
    Damnit, why didn’t I think of that excuse?
    As a teacher, isn't that the go-to excuse?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 28
    Thanks for the header @ydoethur. Interesting points and undoubtedly true.

    Don't worry about the typos that crept through - their de rigour for a PB header!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    algarkirk said:

    There is money (more than in politics), fame, respect, a degree of safety from assassination, and fairly agreeable life if you like north London in fields you might call para-politics.

    This is the life of having a media profile, views, public discourse ability and the capacity to know and say something about a lot. It is a huge industry. Some make loads.

    Think of the lives and fates of Martin Lewis, Paxman, Nick Robinson, Jessica Elgot, James Forsyth, Peter Oborne, Jim Naughtie, Jonathan Freedland, Robert Chote, Paul Johnson, Torsten Bell, Matthew Parris, Matthew Goodwin, Stephen Bush.

    There are hundreds of them, and many of them are outstanding. Radio, TV, podcasts, academia, policy wonk outfits (by the hundred), even print media.

    You could assemble from them 10 cabinets of greater ability than our present one, or SKS's.

    The single key is that power and fame without political responsibility is loads more fun and lucrative than risking a parliament career.

    The career of Boris Johnson rather soils (that was supposed to read spoils, but I like the typo) that thesis in at least a couple of ways.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 28
    ydoethur said:

    JohnO said:

    Small point of information: Neil Hamilton was miles away from being in Major’s Cabinet. He served two years as a lowly PUSS 1992-4 before his enforced departure.

    I’m disappointed nobody’s picked up on the enormous number of spelling and grammar errors.

    There is a reason for this. It was actually dictated using audio software as an experiment. I didn’t have a lot of time to check it (which goes some way to explaining the other inaccuracies) so a fair number still seem to be in.

    It’s interesting to note that it really struggles to distinguish words that don’t even sound that similar. So Liz Truss can’t attest to the job insecurity as I wanted her to. And Attlee somehow became atlee (whatever that is).

    Dictation software may be the way to go for the future particularly for those with dyslexia but ti has some way to go to get there.
    'Sir can I use your dictaphone?'

    'No Olwyn. Use your finger like everybody else'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.

    Labour's problem is that there was little intake in 2019, and those few were often of very low calibre, such as my local Claudia Webbe. Hence there are a lot of Miliband retreads and old familiar faces. Thanks to 2019 the PLP have a n old group of MPs compared to Tories. The next GE may well reverse that of course.

    I think though that @ydoethur in his interesting header is wearing his rose tinted specs. Parliament has always had a lot of nonentities, yes-men, careerists and time-servers. It is only the veneer of time that makes previous cabinets such as the 1997 New Labour one look good.

    Rose tinted spectacles are always a danger.

    But here is a question. Who would you have in the cabinet from the current lot ahead of any names member of the 1997 cabinet? Or the 1979 cabinet?

    I find it’s a very short list. Possibly in the latter case Mordaunt for Norman St John Stevas, Sunak for Prior and Harper for Howell. Possibly Gove for Joseph. But would you take any of this lot ahead of even mid-ranking ministers like Pym or Gilmour?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    This is an interesting header. But, what I would say in response is that the zombie state of politics is also reflected in the opposition. The labour party have the same problem. The 'stars' of the labour party are people who were in Ed Milibands shadow cabinet. The 2019 intake are low quality. Starmers whole approach is of 'competent managerialism' which isn't going to work against Sunak. The 'truss' episode demonstrates that the markets will impose limits on what you can actually do.

    Labour's problem is that there was little intake in 2019, and those few were often of very low calibre, such as my local Claudia Webbe. Hence there are a lot of Miliband retreads and old familiar faces. Thanks to 2019 the PLP have a n old group of MPs compared to Tories. The next GE may well reverse that of course.

    I think though that @ydoethur in his interesting header is wearing his rose tinted specs. Parliament has always had a lot of nonentities, yes-men, careerists and time-servers. It is only the veneer of time that makes previous cabinets such as the 1997 New Labour one look good.

    I partially agree with that.
    For example, while it was indeed an exhausted government, in terms of personnel Major's second administration wasn't dramatically worse than its two immediate predecessors.
    It was the absence of a decent working majority which rendered it hopeless.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    We live in massively ideological times, and narrow ones too. So much so that a great and apparently impartial broadcaster like the BBC has no idea in its news coverage that it is commenting and opinionating all the time, so dominant is a fairly narrow Overton window of what is possible ideologically.

    An ideology of pragmatism and muddling through invariably hides rather than reveals its ideology. But it is there.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    edited October 28

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?

    This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.

    One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    edited October 28
    Jonathan said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    We live in very ideological times. Brexit is ideology. Almost theological.
    As is Rwanda, as I;m reminded by the discussion the other day. A shibboleth for the Right in Britain, as in Judges 12.6, to tell the Woke apart from the Goats:

    Then said they unto him, Say now Shibboleth: and he said Sibboleth: for he could not frame to pronounce it right. Then they took him, and slew him at the passages of Jordan: and there fell at that time of the Ephraimites forty and two thousand.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927
    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Its unlikely as it looks like it will rain for the rest of the day.
    Australia has had absolutely terrible weather recently, we may be basking in unseasonably warm temperatures at the moment, but in Melbourne temperatures over the coming week will be 8-10 degrees below normal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Has anyone checked to see if Sri Lanka are dancing a rain dance?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 28
    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    Jonathan said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    We live in very ideological times. Brexit is ideology. Almost theological.
    Brexit is not an ideology. Its supporters varied (and vary) from racist fascists through revolutionary Marxist leftists to liberal minded supporters of leaving the political project of 'ever closer union' and joining EFTA/EEA.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    edited October 28

    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.

    Some newspapers have the normal website vs pretend paper format option, and the latter is what you want. The National is an example, for instance. In that case when you go to the main website there is a blue buttol labelled "Digital Edition" and you press that to go to the pretend paper format. (Rather illogical as both the website format and the pretend paper options are both digital, but ...). You might have to poke around for your preferred example ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Has anyone checked to see if Sri Lanka are dancing a rain dance?
    It's a bit ridiculous that there's no contingency for bad weather.

    Need to hold the cricket world cups in a dry country like England, just sayin'
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    Exchange on twitter:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    ·
    19h
    Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?


    Andrew Sullivan
    @sullydish
    Replying to
    @GoodwinMJ
    Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af.
    3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1585646144855871490
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808

    A couple of quick factual corrections in the article.

    Firstly, Neil Hamilton was never a cabinet minister (nor attending cabinet).

    Secondly, Gordon Brown's final cabinet had three members of the Lords, not seven (there were three more attending cabinet, but not members of it). You say "one of the few from the House of Commons" was Bob Ainsworth... he was actually one of 21.

    The broad thrust of the article has some sense in it, but the inaccuracies don't particularly help.

    I wondered about those when reading it, but you always trust a teacher...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    Rishi, Suella and Kemi are all 42. Younger than the average voter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.

    The Guardian one is good for flipping through, though the content is free anyway if you can put up with the nagging!

    The Atlantic one is good, and good value too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?

    This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.

    One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.
    "presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates."

    What is 'working class' nowadays? IMV the distinctions are becoming very blurred. For instance, is Owen Jones 'working class' ? If so, why not Rishi Sunak?

    Agree totally on non-graduates. I've wittered on about the evils of the 50% university targets in the past; but what we are seeing are increasing number of roles which are closed to non-graduates (*). This is utterly wrong and throws lots of people under the bus - the same effect as the 11+, except later in life.

    (*) I am a non-graduate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Carnyx said:

    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.

    Some newspapers have the normal website vs pretend paper format option, and the latter is what you want. The National is an example, for instance. In that case when you go to the main website there is a blue buttol labelled "Digital Edition" and you press that to go to the pretend paper format. (Rather illogical as both the website format and the pretend paper options are both digital, but ...). You might have to poke around for your preferred example ...
    You read the National? That is true dedication to the cause, that is. Respect.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    Hmmm. Was there really a website that existed solely to watch *your* every move, criticise everything *you* did, and retweeted every tiny bit of information about *you*?

    Thanks for the article, BTW. To one of your questions about why politicians are of low quality, I'd put more emphasis on ideological purity. For four or five years, Labour selected a load of people who were total incompetents - but were solidly Corbynite. Likewise, as you state the Conservatives have been concerned more about Brexit purity than sane government, and have forced out a load of people who did not think Europe was the source of all the country's ills.

    Both parties need to become broader churches.

    I'd also argue that some politicians who are widely derided aren't as bad as they are made out. Gove is a classic example of this: he is widely hated, but also one of the better performers.

    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    What? Why can't they be both? Yvette Cooper is female, Sunak is BAME, Starmer is state educated.

    Bizarre.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Good morning, everyone.

    Who'd be a politician? The media puts you under a microscope and is constantly trying to get you fired, job security is poor or woeful for many, and there's a small chance of being subjected to aggression (even, sadly, murder).

    You can earn more, without the media dissecting your every move, in greater safety, in many other lines of work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Thanks for the piece @ydoethur - interesting points.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?

    This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.

    One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.
    "presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates."

    What is 'working class' nowadays? IMV the distinctions are becoming very blurred. For instance, is Owen Jones 'working class' ? If so, why not Rishi Sunak?

    Agree totally on non-graduates. I've wittered on about the evils of the 50% university targets in the past; but what we are seeing are increasing number of roles which are closed to non-graduates (*). This is utterly wrong and throws lots of people under the bus - the same effect as the 11+, except later in life.

    (*) I am a non-graduate.
    "Working Class" is not a hereditary attribute. It means spending a significant part of adult working life in a CDE occupation before entering politics.

    Increasingly the changing class structure of the UK means that the graduate/non-graduate distinction is the valid division, at least for people under 40 at present.

    I know you are not a Rayner fan, but I think her a great example of how education and intelligence are not the same.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?

    This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of
    retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.

    One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.


    We do seem to burn through politicians faster now than in the past. Sunak is pretty likely to be on the scrapheap in his mid-forties after nine years in Parliament. If Badenoch takes over and loses in 2029 (which is at least plausible), the same fate awaits her.

    So, assuming this is a bad thing, what's causing the problem? Is it our fault for always wanting the shiny new thing, and taking the Kick Them Out thing too far? Or the politicians' fault for creating an express route into Parliament that drops them there underprepared and without Good Old Tory Bottom?

    The other thing I would point at is the weakening of smaller-scale politics as a way in, especially local councils with actual powers.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185

    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Its unlikely as it looks like it will rain for the rest of the day.
    Australia has had absolutely terrible weather recently, we may be basking in unseasonably warm temperatures at the moment, but in Melbourne temperatures over the coming week will be 8-10 degrees below normal.
    It was heavy rain showers here (in Melbourne) yesterday and today is a typical UK November day, ie high winds, grey skies and light constant drizzle. I am not looking forward to next week as I only brought T-shirts with me for this visit!

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    edited October 28
    George Osborne's Help to Buy scheme set a bomb under the public finances. And it is ready to go off
    If there is a property crash, the former Chancellor's contrivance could saddle the government with liabilities of up to £23 billion

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/27/george-osbornes-help-buy-scheme-set-bomb-public-finances-ready/ (£££)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the differences between the exhausted volcanoes of the Liberal Party and the current cabinet must surely be age. The average age of MPs is about 50: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/

    Rishi is 42 years old, which is pretty young to be an exhausted volcano and there are several other young members of the cabinet as well. Kemi is also 42. So any exhaustion is surely ideological and intellectual exhaustion rather than age. I think that there is some truth in this. Most Tories have forgotten what they are for. Their sole raison d'etre seems to be that they are better than the other lot, somehow. Looking at the shadow cabinet as a whole, they might even be right, which is a scary thought.

    We live in less ideological times. This is not necessarily a bad thing: most ideologies cause serious problems when taken to extreme but it does leave politicians muddling through and stuff comes at them very fast these days. This new government is not going to be any different in that respect.

    Rishi, Suella and Kemi are all 42. Younger than the average voter.
    I had a strange moment where I found Suella attractive yesterday.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    Rishi Sunak plans to expand windfall tax grab
    The Prime Minister could target energy firms as he tries to raise billions of pounds to balance the books

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/27/rishi-sunak-plans-expand-windfall-tax-grab/ (£££)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Its unlikely as it looks like it will rain for the rest of the day.
    Australia has had absolutely terrible weather recently, we may be basking in unseasonably warm temperatures at the moment, but in Melbourne temperatures over the coming week will be 8-10 degrees below normal.
    It's a la nina year. This weather is not unexpected in Australia during that particular ENSO oscillation, doubly in Melbourne.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    On topic - great header - and another warning from history:

    John Major's problem was that, increasingly, he became seen by the public not as the leader of the nation, but as the leader of a political party - and a divided one at that. On the then central issue of Europe, it appeared that Mr Major's policies were designed not so much with the national good in mind, but simply to find a way of arbitrating between conflicting Conservative clans.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-blair-s-government-is-suffering-deathly-decay-just-look-at-all-those-pallid-faces-480714.html

    Off topic - for all the Braverman fans:

    Why Rishi Sunak (and Suella Braverman) will continue to bang on (and on and on) about immigration. Another great graphic from the @FT's @jburnmurdoch: three-quarters of constituencies have 'anti-immigration' majorities, even though Brits as a whole are evenly split on the issue.



    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1585890729414430721
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    edited October 28
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.

    Some newspapers have the normal website vs pretend paper format option, and the latter is what you want. The National is an example, for instance. In that case when you go to the main website there is a blue buttol labelled "Digital Edition" and you press that to go to the pretend paper format. (Rather illogical as both the website format and the pretend paper options are both digital, but ...). You might have to poke around for your preferred example ...
    You read the National? That is true dedication to the cause, that is. Respect.
    Sarky!

    Amongst others ... but I'd rather have the Scotsman and Herald of old, admittedly so last century now.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    O/T Mrs. P and I are finally cancelling our daily paper after 43 years for a number of reasons (cost, environment, timeliness).

    We have switched to a digital subscription for the time being and could probably have half a dozen for less than the cost of a daily print media delivery.

    How do others 'consume' these digital subscriptions - are there any that are formatted like newspapers or are they all like glorified BBC news websites?

    I'd really like a paper on an iPad that I could flick through tbh.

    There is a real loss in losing daily newspapers with large circulation and a collective monopoly on current comment and news. Both the 24 hour news cycle and the internet (these of course are linked events) have destroyed the model.

    It loses a whole culture of tens of millions imbibing a culture in common ways every morning. And there is nothing that quite replaces newspaper with writing on it, print coming off on your fingers. But newspapers are in a sense out of date as they are printed and distributed. And of course Guardian online is free (as is much of the FT if you work around).

    My compromise is to subscribe to the print edition of the Economist for slower news and comment, and online for the 24 hour cycle.

    But the only thing I miss about London days and commuting etc is the immediacy of newsprint, and reading the Times in pre -Murdoch days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    edited October 28
    Good piece of reporting in the Daily Kos who are covering Ukraine better than anyone else I have found. This piece, based in part upon recovered Russian papers show the utter chaos of their army: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/27/2131549/-Two-stories-tell-how-Russia-s-war-machine-broke-down-in-Ukraine-and-can-t-be-readily-fixed
    It also shows why the mobilisation has really not helped their war effort at all.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know if there is much chance of the England Australia game actually happening today? I see that the Irish game, also in Melbourne, was washed out.

    Its unlikely as it looks like it will rain for the rest of the day.
    Australia has had absolutely terrible weather recently, we may be basking in unseasonably warm temperatures at the moment, but in Melbourne temperatures over the coming week will be 8-10 degrees below normal.
    This is a feature of ENSO. We're currently experiencing an unprecedented triple-dip La Nina phase of the oscillation.

    I'm not up-to-date with how well the latest climate models reproduce ENSO, but back in the day it was something they struggled with, so it's interesting to see this La Nina when the general prediction was for a predominance of the positive El Nino phase under warming conditions.

    The other seesaw type effect of what has been an exceptionally warm year for Britain is that the Arctic has been quite cool relative to the scorching hot trend of recent years.

    After hearing about the conditions many civilians in Ukraine are living in I can only hope that Eastern Europe has a record-breaking winter of warmth. It's hard to prioritise meteorological observations at a time like this, but I hope that as many of their long-term record-keeping stations can keep going as possible.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Andy_JS said:

    Exchange on twitter:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    ·
    19h
    Can any sensible US journalists out there tell me what happened to US media? Do journos not visit countries they write about anymore? Do they not read evidence? How can so many apparently serious journalists like this, at NYT etc think this? What has happened to the media class?


    Andrew Sullivan
    @sullydish
    Replying to
    @GoodwinMJ
    Matt, you have no idea how bad it is. Total capture by far-left. Almost all op-eds from tiny fringe of UK leftists. Reporting always skewed to prove Brexit was wrong. The bubble is tight af.
    3:54 PM · Oct 27, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App"

    https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1585646144855871490

    The US media’s coverage of the UK is on a par with the UK media’s coverage of mainland Europe and Ireland. With a few honourable exceptions, it is entirely superficial, often completely wrong and usually seen through the prism of domestic political bias.

    You can add Scotland and Wales.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine having a job where there are websites which exist solely for watching your every move, criticising everything you do, and retweeting every tiny bit of negative information about you.

    I don’t have to, I had one for ten years.
    What job?
    Teaching!
    And finally: we apparently want MPs to be one of us, to 'represent' ourselves. Hence we want a certain number of female MPs, a certain number of BAME MPs, a certain number of state-educated ones. Note 'ability' does not creep into this. Yet we also want them to be 'better' than us. To be the same as us, yet better. It's an impossibility.
    Yes there is some truth to this. The diversity on the government benches is in large part due to the work that Cameron put in in the late naughties, and those now have a dozen years experience as MPs, so are front benches. Would Sunak have been selected for a safe seat a decade or so earlier?

    This was helped of course by the large number of new seats won in 2010, and the unusual number of
    retirements from the expenses scandal fall out. Polls would suggest that there will be a massive clear out at the next GE too, with perhaps half the government benches being novice MPs. An opportunity but also a problem.

    One thing that we do seem to have lost is the presence of MPs of working class origin, and the non-graduates. Rayner is a rare example, and clearly political marmite (I am a fan). I do think this matters, as too many MPs come through the avenues of student politics, think tank, policy wonk, to MP. Either that or a narrow range of careers, often in financial services, giving a very one dimensional character to Parliament.


    We do seem to burn through politicians faster now than in the past. Sunak is pretty likely to be on the scrapheap in his mid-forties after nine years in Parliament. If Badenoch takes over and loses in 2029 (which is at least plausible), the same fate awaits her.

    So, assuming this is a bad thing, what's causing the problem? Is it our fault for always wanting the shiny new thing, and taking the Kick Them Out thing too far? Or the politicians' fault for creating an express route into Parliament that drops them there underprepared and without Good Old Tory Bottom?

    The other thing I would point at is the weakening of smaller-scale politics as a way in, especially local councils with actual powers.
    I think that I prefer the freshness of youth to the gerontocracy of US politics.

    The way up to national politics from local government does seem to have atrophied in recent years. There is also the counter trend of people leaving Parliament to become city mayors. Burnham, Khan, Johnson, Brazil and Soulsby have all done this in recent times.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The salary issue needs some context, given that the present PM is richer than God and Javid, Zahawi, Mogg, Hunt, Jenrick, Cox are just the ones I know about who would not notice if their wages were stopped. And Blair, Clegg, Osborne show you can exit into untold wealth. And there's probably others who made fraudulent millions in PPE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Interesting, as I suggested yesterday.

    A leading article in today's Times:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-seeks-deal-to-curb-channel-migrant-crossings-zrqr7ww3h
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    edited October 28
    The Tories are clearly intellectually exhausted. They also need time to work out what Brexit means and how they might make it work. That is best done from opposition. There is no amazing talent on the Labour front benches, but there’s no-one I’d worry about putting in the Cabinet if Labour wins. All will come without the accumulated baggage of 12 years in government and with new approaches to key issues. They will have far less reason to pander to elderly home owners. In and of itself that will make a big and, I believe, positive difference.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927

    Good morning, everyone.

    Who'd be a politician? The media puts you under a microscope and is constantly trying to get you fired, job security is poor or woeful for many, and there's a small chance of being subjected to aggression (even, sadly, murder).

    You can earn more, without the media dissecting your every move, in greater safety, in many other lines of work.

    The standard of politician will get worse and worse, its such a horrible job to have these days.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,918
    Excellent thread header @ydoethur
This discussion has been closed.