So why haven’t Team Boris announced the names or his candidacy? – politicalbetting.com

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

Still think we’ll hear from Boris in a Telegraph column tomorrow. Probably saying he won’t stand (but he’ll have written two…).

So nineish..?

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges Twitter
Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".

7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022

It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.

Ahem, me yesterday.

I think Boris Johnson may perform a 2016 Tory leadership contest redux and pull out before things get messy which makes me think a good bet is backing Mordaunt who is 34 on Betfair in the next PM market, if the Tory members still have their doubts about Sunak.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/22/the-tectonic-plates-appear-to-be-shifting/

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges Twitter
Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".

7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022

It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.

Yes I couldn't get my head around this yesterday but there is indeed a bizarre, albeit rather implausible, pathway to victory.

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

Sunak is a Hindu.

Not an issue for the Act of Settlement I think, which didn't anticipate that one.

My theory is that Johnson has the 100 nominations, or is at least confident he should have them, but is genuinely unsure as to whether it is in his interests to stand this time, given he knows many MPs won't work with him, the economy is in the shit and the Tories face wipe out at the next election. So his options are either stand, or make it look like he just fell short of the 100, present himself as thwarted by the establishment and stand by to inherit the smoking wreckage of the party after the next election (most likely after inheriting a safer seat either pre or post the general election).

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hypothetical scenario which comes to mind when hearing Russian calls with UK, France etc

#Russia detonates dirty bomb in #Ukraine. Blames Ukraine for ‘provocation’. Then drops tactical nuke in ‘retaliation’ before 1st bomb it attributed

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1584223234139951106

The more sane version is they are going to blow the dam. Which was last done in 1941 in an attempt to slow down the German advance.

https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-russia-plans-blow-up-dam-soviet-wwii-tactic-2022-10?r=US&IR=T

It would prevent further evacuation from the right bank, but also as the left bank is lower by a couple of meters, flood their own new positions.

It does seem as if the Ukranians are pushing towards the dam rather than to Kherson city itself.

It should be made clear that blowing the dam will lead to further escalation. Good moment to provide Ukraine with ATACMS the longer range artillery.

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

@Richard_Tyndall

Re PR:

There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

You need a much higher number of seats per ward to make STV close to proportional.

At least 6, ideally 8 to 10.

That's ridiculous. You don't need 6. In the Irish Republic, each parliamentary constituency elects between 3 and 5 members. If you look at the 2020 election results, it's fair to say they're close to proportional. SF 24.5% of votes (23.1% of seats), FF 22.1% (23.1% too), FG 20.8% (21.9%), Green 7.1% (7.5%), Lab 4.4% (3.8%).

RochdalePioneers said:

Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.

We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...

Rishi is hardly a wet though, I expect his cabinet to be pretty fiscally dry and deregulating. Spending cuts will be pushed through.

What has happened to Penny Mordaunt's accent?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1584133133523468290

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Did our fellow PBer survive his campout at British Museum, surround by pile of priceless Egyptian antiquities, and a gaggle of prepubescent schoolgirls?

Probably best to have 'em (girls not mummies) hike up & down the corridors for 20 miles or so before lights out!

The original script for the Dr Who serial ‘The pyramids of Mars’ was set in the British Museum. Sadly deemed unfilmable, but perhaps one gallant pb’er has fallen victim to Sutekh? ‘Your evil is my good’, as he once said, along with ‘Radiohead are shit’ and ‘pineapple should be added to all pizzas’.

Penny is worth a fiver, just to trade. Have taken it.

There was some talk here yesterday that Mrs Brady Old Lady and the 1922 had screwed it up badly.

Maybe they have. Or maybe they've judged it perfectly. Maybe they've stitched him up like Tantalus (a lovely classical illusion for Johnson)? Perhaps they've set the threshold at the perfect level to encourage him to reach desperately, and miss humiliatingly?

williamglenn said:

What has happened to Penny Mordaunt's accent?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1584133133523468290

That's a good observation.

"Gettin'.."

Mixture of too much caffeine, adrenaline and faux estuary english there, I think.

If the nominations need to be made direct to brady the campaigns are presumably asking their supporters to cc them in.

Gardenwalker said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Marcus01 said:

It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

What you been up to?

Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.

I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.

I think a 1:10 commenter to lurker ratio is usually regarded as standard.

It would be good to understand this ratio, and also to see some kind of demographic analysis, perhaps via survey.

Tis the nature of lurkers to not respond!

However we do get quite a few near lurkers in the prediction contests. I remember 500 or so in one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Heathener said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges Twitter
Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".

7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022

It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.

Ahem, me yesterday.

I think Boris Johnson may perform a 2016 Tory leadership contest redux and pull out before things get messy which makes me think a good bet is backing Mordaunt who is 34 on Betfair in the next PM market, if the Tory members still have their doubts about Sunak.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/22/the-tectonic-plates-appear-to-be-shifting/

By then, I'd already flagged the real possibility of Boris not running but urging his people to go to Penny - as the best way to screw Rishi

Gardenwalker said:

Boris hasn’t declared.
But nor he has he yet pulled out.

The ERG are due to decide tomorrow who they plump for. Though that itself suggests a level of Boris skepticism. Baker, Braverman and IDS are all on Team Rishi.

I know there is a theory that Boris needs to be voted down in a GE, but that underestimates the damage he is capable of.

With luck he will be forced to withdraw from this race in humiliating fashion, and be out of Parliament in a few months under censure from the Privileges Committee.

Quite a few of the ERG have already nominated for: Sunak (14), Johnson (9), Mordaunt (3).

kle4 said:

If the nominations need to be made direct to brady the campaigns are presumably asking their supporters to cc them in.

Which continues to call into question why Bozo hasn’t announced he’s running . If they had the 100 yesterday and he announced then you’d think that would build up momentum .

kle4 said:

nico679 said:

They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .

Who knows, but is it too naive to think even they are not so brazen with lies to claim so fulsomely that they have the numbers if they dont?

I mean, that would just be so bizarre.

If he genuinely has the necessary 100 backers why has he not declared that he is standing? That makes no sense at all.

The actual process is secret. If they don't get the 100 names his cronies will simply say some of his backers must have lied to us, the irony of which would be a suitably fitting epitaph to Johnson's campaign and political career.

pancakes said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

@Richard_Tyndall

Re PR:

There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

You need a much higher number of seats per ward to make STV close to proportional.

At least 6, ideally 8 to 10.

That's ridiculous. You don't need 6. In the Irish Republic, each parliamentary constituency elects between 3 and 5 members. If you look at the 2020 election results, it's fair to say they're close to proportional. SF 24.5% of votes (23.1% of seats), FF 22.1% (23.1% too), FG 20.8% (21.9%), Green 7.1% (7.5%), Lab 4.4% (3.8%).

Look at the Euro elections. Nothing proportional about the North East with only 3 seats, but a fair representation in the South East with (IIRC) 8.

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Marcus01 said:

It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

What you been up to?

Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.

I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.

I think a 1:10 commenter to lurker ratio is usually regarded as standard.

It would be good to understand this ratio, and also to see some kind of demographic analysis, perhaps via survey.

Tis the nature of lurkers to not respond!

However we do get quite a few near lurkers in the prediction contests. I remember 500 or so in one.

IF there was a Lurker Lottery for rumble seats on a PB Bottle Bus & Pseph Kitchen, surely THAT would smoke 'em out.

So Brady receives 100 nominations for someone who isn't standing.

How does that work?

@Richard_Tyndall Thanks for responding Richard. I know we have the FPTP/PR debate regularly so I don't want to start that one again, but keen to discuss the specifics we were discussing. Re STV why do you think it weakens the constituency link? I would have thought it would have made it stronger. Also rather than focusing on a common denominator of the electorate in a candidate to maximise a vote, it is beneficial to put up candidates with a range of characteristics. Re AV you maybe surprised that I am in agreement with you. Although not proportional it usually is better than FPTP. There are occasions when it is less representative, but usually only when there would have been a huge landslide anyway. Not my first choice but more acceptable than FPTP. I am very unkeen on PR systems where the voter doesn't really get a choice, but it is effectively decided by the parties eg lists

Said earlier that Guido was emulating his namesake.

However, it appears (emphasis on conditional) that he is not over-ramping his numbers.

Though high number of those whose BoJo love dare not speak its name due to their positions seems high. Unless Johnson managed to suborn & rot the entire Whips office?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

My theory is that Johnson has the 100 nominations, or is at least confident he should have them, but is genuinely unsure as to whether it is in his interests to stand this time, given he knows many MPs won't work with him, the economy is in the shit and the Tories face wipe out at the next election. So his options are either stand, or make it look like he just fell short of the 100, present himself as thwarted by the establishment and stand by to inherit the smoking wreckage of the party after the next election (most likely after inheriting a safer seat either pre or post the general election).

Does Johnson really have any interest in toiling away as leader of the opposition?

The narrative pull of a second coming as PM is surely much more attractive, and in some ways it's a benefit that it will end in a blaze of glory at the next election.

MikeL said:

Heappey just added to Guido spreadsheet - first new declaration for several hours.

Must hurt Boris. I bet Heappey was written on the list with something more permanent than pencil...

Ishmael_Z said:

Gardenwalker said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Marcus01 said:

It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

What you been up to?

Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.

I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.

I think a 1:10 commenter to lurker ratio is usually regarded as standard.

It would be good to understand this ratio, and also to see some kind of demographic analysis, perhaps via survey.

As a blow to our collective self esteem most readers allegedly read the headers and can't be bothered with the btl drivel.

Other way round for me.

williamglenn said:

What has happened to Penny Mordaunt's accent?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1584133133523468290

I don’t know, but it’s an unwelcome development.

Driver said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.

We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...

It isn't that simple.

I think Sunak wins the final round of MPs very clearly and Boris loses the members vote.

Possibly by a margin that will surprise us all.

Hatred clouds analysis.

Worth noting that about 35-45% of members are "sensible" and went for Hunt/Sunak in the last two contests. They're not all alike.

Given how even the ERG ultras are breaking clearly for Sunak, the fact even the Mail is on the fence, the clear MP lead Sunak will have that will influence members, and how much the members say they'd now vote differently for Sunak (over Truss) if they had their time again, it isn't difficult to see how Sunak gets the 8-9% swing he needs to get to win.

I think Sunak would win members 58-42. Maybe even higher.

StillWaters said:

Gardenwalker said:

Hopefully Rishi tells Boris to fucking do one.
And that he is looking forward to the outcome of the Privileges Committer.

Those exact words.

Starting a sentence with an “And”?

What kind of heathen are you?

"And did those feet..."

SandyRentool said:

So Brady receives 100 nominations for someone who isn't standing.

How does that work?

"I shall not seek, but will accept, the nomination of my party ..."

I disagree that Johnson becomes fav if he gets onto the ballot.

So has Big Dog won the contest yet?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Ominous pause

It was a crude Jannifer Arcuri reference that I decided was just too vulgar.

Hopefully custard wasn't involved?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Ominous pause

It was a crude Jannifer Arcuri reference that I decided was just too vulgar.

Hopefully custard wasn't involved?

It was the cream that did it.

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

StillWaters said:

Gardenwalker said:

Hopefully Rishi tells Boris to fucking do one.
And that he is looking forward to the outcome of the Privileges Committer.

Those exact words.

Starting a sentence with an “And”?

What kind of heathen are you?

"And did those feet..."

No.

"And was the Holy Lamb..."

kinabalu said:

I disagree that Johnson becomes fav if he gets onto the ballot.

He probably comes into evens on Betfair though.

I expect a massive overreaction.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

StillWaters said:

Gardenwalker said:

Hopefully Rishi tells Boris to fucking do one.
And that he is looking forward to the outcome of the Privileges Committer.

Those exact words.

Starting a sentence with an “And”?

What kind of heathen are you?

"And did those feet..."

No.

"And was the Holy Lamb..."

No.

Nor that bit about the Countenance Divine.

And as for Jerusalem, silly question.

bigjohnowls said:

SKS Fans please explain how can a Party with a 30% lead be only this far ahead in baest PM

SKS a massive drag on Lab

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
9h
Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson by only 3%.

At this moment, which of the following do voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK?

Starmer v Johnson:

Starmer 42%
Johnson 39%

Starmer v Sunak:

Starmer 44%
Sunak 33%

It's been a while, but can you remember the figures for Corbyn vs Johnson, for comparison.

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

He’s an atheist in reality.

Just sayin’.

Indeed. He is no more a bona fide Catholic than was Adolf Hitler.

Benpointer said:

How does the nomination paper process actually work? Does a candidate need to get each of their backers to print and sign their name?

Then presumably the 1922 have to check that each is valid and that each backer only appears on one candidate's list.

What happens to any backers who are not in Westminster tomorrow or cannot be tracked down before 14:00 tomorrow?

I checked the rules. Those nominating can either email or physically hand a letter confirming that to Graham Brady .

MikeL said:

BBC:

Two Conservative MPs have to act as a proposer and a seconder. They have to allow their names to be made public.

Then, 98 other Conservative MPs have to nominate them too but they can choose to remain secret.

The candidates can't back themselves.

Candidates have been collecting the nominations from MPs, either physically or by email, and will submit a form to the 1922 Executive.

I'm told the nominations are checked to make sure they are clearly backing them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087

Brady: "so, are you really backing Johnson?"

Anon MP: "Lol. No!"

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….

IanB2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….

I don't think anyone feels he's quite the guy any more.

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS Fans please explain how can a Party with a 30% lead be only this far ahead in baest PM

SKS a massive drag on Lab

Are you still doing this?

That answer doesnt explain why does it?

kjh said:

@Richard_Tyndall Thanks for responding Richard. I know we have the FPTP/PR debate regularly so I don't want to start that one again, but keen to discuss the specifics we were discussing. Re STV why do you think it weakens the constituency link? I would have thought it would have made it stronger. Also rather than focusing on a common denominator of the electorate in a candidate to maximise a vote, it is beneficial to put up candidates with a range of characteristics. Re AV you maybe surprised that I am in agreement with you. Although not proportional it usually is better than FPTP. There are occasions when it is less representative, but usually only when there would have been a huge landslide anyway. Not my first choice but more acceptable than FPTP. I am very unkeen on PR systems where the voter doesn't really get a choice, but it is effectively decided by the parties eg lists

I agree with you on the lists - but it is remarkable how few people make that comment about our current system in which, for the party of your preference, your choice of candidate is precisely zero.

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….

I don't think anyone feels he's quite the guy any more.

Be more embarrassing *not* to be a guy.

ydoethur said:

barrykenna said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?

Boris is a Catholic.
Just sayin’.

He’s an atheist in reality.

Just sayin’.

Indeed. He is no more a bona fide Catholic than was Adolf Hitler.

TBF to Johnson that's about the only valid Godwin you can make for him. The other parallel might be their laziness and inability to focus on details.

"Mein Boris. Brady..."

"Brady didn't have enough backbenchers. The nomination never took place!"