In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Twitter Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".
7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022
It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.
Ahem, me yesterday.
I think Boris Johnson may perform a 2016 Tory leadership contest redux and pull out before things get messy which makes me think a good bet is backing Mordaunt who is 34 on Betfair in the next PM market, if the Tory members still have their doubts about Sunak.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Twitter Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".
7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022
It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.
Yes I couldn't get my head around this yesterday but there is indeed a bizarre, albeit rather implausible, pathway to victory.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
Sunak is a Hindu.
Not an issue for the Act of Settlement I think, which didn't anticipate that one.
Did our fellow PBer survive his campout at British Museum, surround by pile of priceless Egyptian antiquities, and a gaggle of prepubescent schoolgirls?
Probably best to have 'em (girls not mummies) hike up & down the corridors for 20 miles or so before lights out!
My theory is that Johnson has the 100 nominations, or is at least confident he should have them, but is genuinely unsure as to whether it is in his interests to stand this time, given he knows many MPs won't work with him, the economy is in the shit and the Tories face wipe out at the next election. So his options are either stand, or make it look like he just fell short of the 100, present himself as thwarted by the establishment and stand by to inherit the smoking wreckage of the party after the next election (most likely after inheriting a safer seat either pre or post the general election).
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
It isn't that simple.
I think Sunak wins the final round of MPs very clearly and Boris loses the members vote.
There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.
My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.
You need a much higher number of seats per ward to make STV close to proportional.
At least 6, ideally 8 to 10.
That's ridiculous. You don't need 6. In the Irish Republic, each parliamentary constituency elects between 3 and 5 members. If you look at the 2020 election results, it's fair to say they're close to proportional. SF 24.5% of votes (23.1% of seats), FF 22.1% (23.1% too), FG 20.8% (21.9%), Green 7.1% (7.5%), Lab 4.4% (3.8%).
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
I agree that he is highly likely to win if he makes the ballot, but I don’t think it’s certain, as you claim.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
Rishi is hardly a wet though, I expect his cabinet to be pretty fiscally dry and deregulating. Spending cuts will be pushed through.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Twitter Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".
7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022
It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.
Yes I couldn't get my head around this yesterday but there is indeed a bizarre, albeit rather implausible, pathway to victory.
Yes, it's just not one I'd want to lay down to the max at this stage for the sake of an extra £25.
Did our fellow PBer survive his campout at British Museum, surround by pile of priceless Egyptian antiquities, and a gaggle of prepubescent schoolgirls?
Probably best to have 'em (girls not mummies) hike up & down the corridors for 20 miles or so before lights out!
The original script for the Dr Who serial ‘The pyramids of Mars’ was set in the British Museum. Sadly deemed unfilmable, but perhaps one gallant pb’er has fallen victim to Sutekh? ‘Your evil is my good’, as he once said, along with ‘Radiohead are shit’ and ‘pineapple should be added to all pizzas’.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
Rishi is hardly a wet though, I expect his cabinet to be pretty fiscally dry and deregulating. Spending cuts will be pushed through.
Indeed. In as far as Johnson has an economic policy it is to the left of Sunak's.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
There was some talk here yesterday that Mrs Brady Old Lady and the 1922 had screwed it up badly.
Maybe they have. Or maybe they've judged it perfectly. Maybe they've stitched him up like Tantalus (a lovely classical illusion for Johnson)? Perhaps they've set the threshold at the perfect level to encourage him to reach desperately, and miss humiliatingly?
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
Rishi is hardly a wet though, I expect his cabinet to be pretty fiscally dry and deregulating. Spending cuts will be pushed through.
This is what is so incredible. La La Land. Sunak is a thatcherite dry who was a Brexiteer whilst Truss was still Remain and Johnson was undecided.
Yet somehow he has been painted as Francis Pym redux.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. ..
You keep repeating this but it isn't that simple.
Even if he did then win on the members' ballot that might be Pyrrhic if he has lost the parliamentary party by, say, 2:1.
He may be like Napoleon arriving into Moscow only to find all the inhabitants have left.
I keep saying it because it is true: Boris would be elected by members if they are given the vote. Tory members don't care what the public think. Or even what Tory MPs think. They are mental, and they want Boris back.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Twitter Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".
7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022
It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.
Ahem, me yesterday.
I think Boris Johnson may perform a 2016 Tory leadership contest redux and pull out before things get messy which makes me think a good bet is backing Mordaunt who is 34 on Betfair in the next PM market, if the Tory members still have their doubts about Sunak.
Boris hasn’t declared. But nor he has he yet pulled out.
The ERG are due to decide tomorrow who they plump for. Though that itself suggests a level of Boris skepticism. Baker, Braverman and IDS are all on Team Rishi.
I know there is a theory that Boris needs to be voted down in a GE, but that underestimates the damage he is capable of.
With luck he will be forced to withdraw from this race in humiliating fashion, and be out of Parliament in a few months under censure from the Privileges Committee.
Quite a few of the ERG have already nominated for: Sunak (14), Johnson (9), Mordaunt (3).
Guido has 76 names for Johnson. This includes 16 who are anonymous and also Ben Wallace who merely said he was 'leaning' towards Johnson. So we can make that 59 confirmed at most. Can we be sure all of those 59 have actually confirmed support for Johnson?
If the nominations need to be made direct to brady the campaigns are presumably asking their supporters to cc them in.
Which continues to call into question why Bozo hasn’t announced he’s running . If they had the 100 yesterday and he announced then you’d think that would build up momentum .
They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .
Who knows, but is it too naive to think even they are not so brazen with lies to claim so fulsomely that they have the numbers if they dont?
I mean, that would just be so bizarre.
If he genuinely has the necessary 100 backers why has he not declared that he is standing? That makes no sense at all.
The actual process is secret. If they don't get the 100 names his cronies will simply say some of his backers must have lied to us, the irony of which would be a suitably fitting epitaph to Johnson's campaign and political career.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.
My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.
You need a much higher number of seats per ward to make STV close to proportional.
At least 6, ideally 8 to 10.
That's ridiculous. You don't need 6. In the Irish Republic, each parliamentary constituency elects between 3 and 5 members. If you look at the 2020 election results, it's fair to say they're close to proportional. SF 24.5% of votes (23.1% of seats), FF 22.1% (23.1% too), FG 20.8% (21.9%), Green 7.1% (7.5%), Lab 4.4% (3.8%).
Look at the Euro elections. Nothing proportional about the North East with only 3 seats, but a fair representation in the South East with (IIRC) 8.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
It isn't that simple.
I think Sunak wins the final round of MPs very clearly and Boris loses the members vote.
@Richard_Tyndall Thanks for responding Richard. I know we have the FPTP/PR debate regularly so I don't want to start that one again, but keen to discuss the specifics we were discussing. Re STV why do you think it weakens the constituency link? I would have thought it would have made it stronger. Also rather than focusing on a common denominator of the electorate in a candidate to maximise a vote, it is beneficial to put up candidates with a range of characteristics. Re AV you maybe surprised that I am in agreement with you. Although not proportional it usually is better than FPTP. There are occasions when it is less representative, but usually only when there would have been a huge landslide anyway. Not my first choice but more acceptable than FPTP. I am very unkeen on PR systems where the voter doesn't really get a choice, but it is effectively decided by the parties eg lists
Said earlier that Guido was emulating his namesake.
However, it appears (emphasis on conditional) that he is not over-ramping his numbers.
Though high number of those whose BoJo love dare not speak its name due to their positions seems high. Unless Johnson managed to suborn & rot the entire Whips office?
My theory is that Johnson has the 100 nominations, or is at least confident he should have them, but is genuinely unsure as to whether it is in his interests to stand this time, given he knows many MPs won't work with him, the economy is in the shit and the Tories face wipe out at the next election. So his options are either stand, or make it look like he just fell short of the 100, present himself as thwarted by the establishment and stand by to inherit the smoking wreckage of the party after the next election (most likely after inheriting a safer seat either pre or post the general election).
Does Johnson really have any interest in toiling away as leader of the opposition?
The narrative pull of a second coming as PM is surely much more attractive, and in some ways it's a benefit that it will end in a blaze of glory at the next election.
Guido has 76 names for Johnson. This includes 16 who are anonymous and also Ben Wallace who merely said he was 'leaning' towards Johnson. So we can make that 59 confirmed at most. Can we be sure all of those 59 have actually confirmed support for Johnson?
I believe the greens. But MPs of all sides have been communicating with Guido regarding their nominations, with the teans asking them to do so. These anonymous Borisites that have given him the required 100 would have joined him, but been asked by his team to keep it secret from Guido, why?
There was some talk here yesterday that Mrs Brady Old Lady and the 1922 had screwed it up badly.
Maybe they have. Or maybe they've judged it perfectly. Maybe they've stitched him up like Tantalus (a lovely classical illusion for Johnson)? Perhaps they've set the threshold at the perfect level to encourage him to reach desperately, and miss humiliatingly?
High risk. 120, a third of the party, might have been better.
My theory is that Johnson has the 100 nominations, or is at least confident he should have them, but is genuinely unsure as to whether it is in his interests to stand this time, given he knows many MPs won't work with him, the economy is in the shit and the Tories face wipe out at the next election. So his options are either stand, or make it look like he just fell short of the 100, present himself as thwarted by the establishment and stand by to inherit the smoking wreckage of the party after the next election (most likely after inheriting a safer seat either pre or post the general election).
Does Johnson really have any interest in toiling away as leader of the opposition?
The narrative pull of a second coming as PM is surely much more attractive, and in some ways it's a benefit that it will end in a blaze of glory at the next election.
Tomorrow is going to be fascinating. If Bozza makes the ballot he wins. Its that simple. But it does increasingly read like he claims he definitely makes the ballot is So Much Bullshit.
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
It isn't that simple.
I think Sunak wins the final round of MPs very clearly and Boris loses the members vote.
Possibly by a margin that will surprise us all.
Hatred clouds analysis.
Worth noting that about 35-45% of members are "sensible" and went for Hunt/Sunak in the last two contests. They're not all alike.
Given how even the ERG ultras are breaking clearly for Sunak, the fact even the Mail is on the fence, the clear MP lead Sunak will have that will influence members, and how much the members say they'd now vote differently for Sunak (over Truss) if they had their time again, it isn't difficult to see how Sunak gets the 8-9% swing he needs to get to win.
I think Sunak would win members 58-42. Maybe even higher.
They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .
Who knows, but is it too naive to think even they are not so brazen with lies to claim so fulsomely that they have the numbers if they dont?
I mean, that would just be so bizarre.
If he genuinely has the necessary 100 backers why has he not declared that he is standing? That makes no sense at all.
The actual process is secret. If they don't get the 100 names his cronies will simply say some of his backers must have lied to us, the irony of which would be a suitably fitting epitaph to Johnson's campaign and political career.
Even if Boris gets over the 100 nomination line, he is going to be well down on, for example:
211 votes in the Confidence vote,
160 votes in the round of three of the 2019 leadership election.
He might even be down on the 113 votes Liz Truss got in the round of three a few months ago.
That's got to smart. There may come a point where a tactical withdrawal feels better than fighting and losing.
Guido has 76 names for Johnson. This includes 16 who are anonymous and also Ben Wallace who merely said he was 'leaning' towards Johnson. So we can make that 59 confirmed at most. Can we be sure all of those 59 have actually confirmed support for Johnson?
If 16 are anonymous, he doesn't have 76 names, by definition.
I noticed that. She must have been on an intensive course on how to lose the votes of RP speakers. Blair went on one too. It's ghastly because it so faux.
I noticed that. She must have been on an intensive course on how to lose the votes of RP speakers. Blair went on one too. It's ghastly because it so faux.
@Richard_Tyndall Thanks for responding Richard. I know we have the FPTP/PR debate regularly so I don't want to start that one again, but keen to discuss the specifics we were discussing. Re STV why do you think it weakens the constituency link? I would have thought it would have made it stronger. Also rather than focusing on a common denominator of the electorate in a candidate to maximise a vote, it is beneficial to put up candidates with a range of characteristics. Re AV you maybe surprised that I am in agreement with you. Although not proportional it usually is better than FPTP. There are occasions when it is less representative, but usually only when there would have been a huge landslide anyway. Not my first choice but more acceptable than FPTP. I am very unkeen on PR systems where the voter doesn't really get a choice, but it is effectively decided by the parties eg lists
I’d certainly prefer STV to FPTP even if it made no difference to proportionality (which it would of course).
My constituency of Lewisham Deptford has a Labour majority of 33,000 (probably higher in the next election). I have one person representing me, who may or may not be sympathetic to the issues I’m concerned with. Particularly a problem if your MP is a minister or just someone like Bozo who spends the parliamentary term on holidays in the Caribbean.
(As it happens Vicky Foxcroft seems OK and I don’t actually have any issues I need to raise with her but bear with me).
Under STV I’d have say 3 or 4 representatives covering my area of SE London and each would have their own areas of interest. I’d have a much better chance of getting at least one of them engaged in an issue, even if (as might be the case in Lewisham) most were from the same party.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
He’s an atheist in reality.
Just sayin’.
Indeed. He is no more a bona fide Catholic than was Adolf Hitler.
How does the nomination paper process actually work? Does a candidate need to get each of their backers to print and sign their name?
Then presumably the 1922 have to check that each is valid and that each backer only appears on one candidate's list.
What happens to any backers who are not in Westminster tomorrow or cannot be tracked down before 14:00 tomorrow?
The BBC has just posted a little piece saying more or less the opposite of what has been said previously - that the candidates collect the details and submit them on a form, and that they "will have already booked a slot" for the checking process: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087
That sounds sort of consistent with the claim about Boris's form having been completed and checked. Hmm.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
He’s an atheist in reality.
Just sayin’.
Indeed. He is no more a bona fide Catholic than was Adolf Hitler.
TBF to Johnson that's about the only valid Godwin you can make for him. The other parallel might be their laziness and inability to focus on details.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….
I don't think anyone feels he's quite the guy any more.
Guido has 76 names for Johnson. This includes 16 who are anonymous and also Ben Wallace who merely said he was 'leaning' towards Johnson. So we can make that 59 confirmed at most. Can we be sure all of those 59 have actually confirmed support for Johnson?
If 16 are anonymous, he doesn't have 76 names, by definition.
He claims to have the names and to have checked them.
@Richard_Tyndall Thanks for responding Richard. I know we have the FPTP/PR debate regularly so I don't want to start that one again, but keen to discuss the specifics we were discussing. Re STV why do you think it weakens the constituency link? I would have thought it would have made it stronger. Also rather than focusing on a common denominator of the electorate in a candidate to maximise a vote, it is beneficial to put up candidates with a range of characteristics. Re AV you maybe surprised that I am in agreement with you. Although not proportional it usually is better than FPTP. There are occasions when it is less representative, but usually only when there would have been a huge landslide anyway. Not my first choice but more acceptable than FPTP. I am very unkeen on PR systems where the voter doesn't really get a choice, but it is effectively decided by the parties eg lists
I agree with you on the lists - but it is remarkable how few people make that comment about our current system in which, for the party of your preference, your choice of candidate is precisely zero.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
The obvious choice for the good folk of Lewes this year….
I don't think anyone feels he's quite the guy any more.
I noticed that. She must have been on an intensive course on how to lose the votes of RP speakers. Blair went on one too. It's ghastly because it so faux.
How do you know it’s not her real accent, mush?
It isn't.
I've met Penny a couple of times, going all the way back to 2005. What I always liked about her was she always treated you with respect, spoke to you as an equal and had no pomposity about her whatsoever.
In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.
Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
Boris is a Catholic. Just sayin’.
He’s an atheist in reality.
Just sayin’.
Indeed. He is no more a bona fide Catholic than was Adolf Hitler.
TBF to Johnson that's about the only valid Godwin you can make for him. The other parallel might be their laziness and inability to focus on details.
"Mein Boris. Brady..."
"Brady didn't have enough backbenchers. The nomination never took place!"
They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .
Who knows, but is it too naive to think even they are not so brazen with lies to claim so fulsomely that they have the numbers if they dont?
I mean, that would just be so bizarre.
If he genuinely has the necessary 100 backers why has he not declared that he is standing? That makes no sense at all.
The actual process is secret. If they don't get the 100 names his cronies will simply say some of his backers must have lied to us, the irony of which would be a suitably fitting epitaph to Johnson's campaign and political career.
Is the nominations process secret from the people they are nominating?
I don't know for sure, but I thought that each candidate had to deliver their nomination forms, signed by each person nominating them. We may not get to know the names, and the other candidates may not, so it's not public, but it's not totally anonymous either.
I guess those MPs could then vote for someone else in the ballot, as that's likely secret and anonymous, which would be entertaining.
Comments
Just sayin’.
He says Sunak can deliver 'stability at home so we can continue to lead support for Ukraine'
Heappey is a close ally of Ben Wallace, who suggested he backs Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584248217213931520
Wonder if he's lost Wallace
So nineish..?
I mean, that would just be so bizarre.
I think Boris Johnson may perform a 2016 Tory leadership contest redux and pull out before things get messy which makes me think a good bet is backing Mordaunt who is 34 on Betfair in the next PM market, if the Tory members still have their doubts about Sunak.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/22/the-tectonic-plates-appear-to-be-shifting/
We know there is growing desperation to stop Rishi. But do they have the numbers? If not, consider this simple reality: 80 or so mouth-foamers have tied themselves into knots to stop Rishi. They will not sit there quietly on the back benches as Rishi and his cabinet of wets tears apart all of their dreams...
Not Marcus Wood?
Not an issue for the Act of Settlement I think, which didn't anticipate that one.
Probably best to have 'em (girls not mummies) hike up & down the corridors for 20 miles or so before lights out!
Just sayin’.
Even if he did then win on the members' ballot that might be Pyrrhic if he has lost the parliamentary party by, say, 2:1.
He may be like Napoleon arriving into Moscow only to find all the inhabitants have left.
I think Sunak wins the final round of MPs very clearly and Boris loses the members vote.
Possibly by a margin that will surprise us all.
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1584133133523468290
Maybe they have. Or maybe they've judged it perfectly. Maybe they've stitched him up like Tantalus (a lovely classical illusion for Johnson)? Perhaps they've set the threshold at the perfect level to encourage him to reach desperately, and miss humiliatingly?
Yet somehow he has been painted as Francis Pym redux.
"Gettin'.."
Mixture of too much caffeine, adrenaline and faux estuary english there, I think.
However we do get quite a few near lurkers in the prediction contests. I remember 500 or so in one.
The actual process is secret. If they don't get the 100 names his cronies will simply say some of his backers must have lied to us, the irony of which would be a suitably fitting epitaph to Johnson's campaign and political career.
I miss the glory days of the comments on the Guardian. They don't open comments on enough opinion pieces any more
How does that work?
"Ok, I guess I'll stand"
However, it appears (emphasis on conditional) that he is not over-ramping his numbers.
Though high number of those whose BoJo love dare not speak its name due to their positions seems high. Unless Johnson managed to suborn & rot the entire Whips office?
The narrative pull of a second coming as PM is surely much more attractive, and in some ways it's a benefit that it will end in a blaze of glory at the next election.
Then presumably the 1922 have to check that each is valid and that each backer only appears on one candidate's list.
What happens to any backers who are not in Westminster tomorrow or cannot be tracked down before 14:00 tomorrow?
Personally I think he clears with around 105.
Given how even the ERG ultras are breaking clearly for Sunak, the fact even the Mail is on the fence, the clear MP lead Sunak will have that will influence members, and how much the members say they'd now vote differently for Sunak (over Truss) if they had their time again, it isn't difficult to see how Sunak gets the 8-9% swing he needs to get to win.
I think Sunak would win members 58-42. Maybe even higher.
211 votes in the Confidence vote,
160 votes in the round of three of the 2019 leadership election.
He might even be down on the 113 votes Liz Truss got in the round of three a few months ago.
That's got to smart. There may come a point where a tactical withdrawal feels better than fighting and losing.
SKS a massive drag on Lab
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
9h
Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson by only 3%.
At this moment, which of the following do voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK?
Starmer v Johnson:
Starmer 42%
Johnson 39%
Starmer v Sunak:
Starmer 44%
Sunak 33%
I expect a massive overreaction.
My constituency of Lewisham Deptford has a Labour majority of 33,000 (probably higher in the next election). I have one person representing me, who may or may not be sympathetic to the issues I’m concerned with. Particularly a problem if your MP is a minister or just someone like Bozo who spends the parliamentary term on holidays in the Caribbean.
(As it happens Vicky Foxcroft seems OK and I don’t actually have any issues I need to raise with her but bear with me).
Under STV I’d have say 3 or 4 representatives covering my area of SE London and each
would have their own areas of interest. I’d have a much better chance of getting at least one of them engaged in an issue, even if (as might be the case in Lewisham) most were from the same party.
Nor that bit about the Countenance Divine.
And as for Jerusalem, silly question.
Two Conservative MPs have to act as a proposer and a seconder. They have to allow their names to be made public.
Then, 98 other Conservative MPs have to nominate them too but they can choose to remain secret.
The candidates can't back themselves.
Candidates have been collecting the nominations from MPs, either physically or by email, and will submit a form to the 1922 Executive.
I'm told the nominations are checked to make sure they are clearly backing them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087
Why is SKS such a massive drag?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63327087
That sounds sort of consistent with the claim about Boris's form having been completed and checked. Hmm.
Anon MP: "Lol. No!"
Osborne’s comments tonight will become the media narrative.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Starmer traded below 20/1, in from his current 200/1.
Disclaimer: Yes, I am talking up my book! But I think the betting logic holds, regardless of my position.
Thoughts, anyone?
Came in from 6 to 4.2 following Heaton-Harris claim.
Now back out to 4.7.
I've met Penny a couple of times, going all the way back to 2005. What I always liked about her was she always treated you with respect, spoke to you as an equal and had no pomposity about her whatsoever.
But she didn't sound like that.
"Brady didn't have enough backbenchers. The nomination never took place!"
I don't know for sure, but I thought that each candidate had to deliver their nomination forms, signed by each person nominating them. We may not get to know the names, and the other candidates may not, so it's not public, but it's not totally anonymous either.
I guess those MPs could then vote for someone else in the ballot, as that's likely secret and anonymous, which would be entertaining.