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So why haven’t Team Boris announced the names or his candidacy? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
So why haven’t Team Boris announced the names or his candidacy? – politicalbetting.com

Exc: here is the message Heaton Harris has just sent, claiming Boris will be on the ballot: https://t.co/rsrTpzMKWi pic.twitter.com/lrFNzSE6Xw

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    edited October 23
    First!

    Like Johnson in the members vote...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    edited October 23
    Second like Boris.

    I think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Third! Like Penny...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    How much of a repetition for bullshit does Chris Heaton-Harris have?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Falling fast, like the clown
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    Lol @ Johnson, the unity candidate….
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Hypothetical scenario which comes to mind when hearing Russian calls with UK, France etc

    #Russia detonates dirty bomb in #Ukraine. Blames Ukraine for ‘provocation’. Then drops tactical nuke in ‘retaliation’ before 1st bomb it attributed


    https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1584223234139951106
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    Boris or not Boris. It feels like a pivotal point in history. If Boris returns then things will never be the same again.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    The Tories need to let Johnson become PM. The only way they and the country will ever be rid of him is to allow the electorate to deliver their verdict on him. Otherwise he will forever be the prince over the water, the stabbed in the back, the one true leader. He needs the stake through the heart that can only be delivered by the voters. Long term I think even the Tories will be better off.
  • Can we just fast forward to the bit where he says he could run if he wanted to, but doesn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,213

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    I know! What a cult.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .
  • Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    He doesn't actually mention 100 names in the message.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    IanB2 said:

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    Lol @ Johnson, the unity candidate….
    :D:D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    rcs1000 said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Re PR:

    There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

    My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

    To get a decent representation, you probably need wards to be somewhat larger. A mix of 3, 4 and 5-member wards reflecting the local geography would probably work best.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    One observation on Twitter was that they can lie about the number of nominations without any fear of being proved to have lied, because if they don't get there they can just pretend they had the numbers if they wanted them, but have withdrawn for the good of the party/country/bank balance or whatever.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    That makes as much sense as the average Russian lie about Ukraine. It doesn't work like that. It's like an MP boasting he won his constituency and offering to produce the verified paperwork with 25000 names backing him to prove it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    kinabalu said:

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    I know! What a cult.
    We should probably discount any messages from the cult in the next 19 hours unless publicly verified by trusted sources.

    Lying and mendacious tactics should be expected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    edited October 23
    nico679 said:

    They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .

    He’s probably losing as well as gaining. If someone switches away from the clown, are they really going to go to the trouble of contacting his campaign team to let them know? More likely, the team is phoning round its existing nominator to check they are still on board.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,213
    nico679 said:

    They apparently had the 100 yesterday so why didn’t they announce this then .

    Could be they want Mordaunt out 1st. Or could be it's bullshit.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 23

    The Tories need to let Johnson become PM. The only way they and the country will ever be rid of him is to allow the electorate to deliver their verdict on him. Otherwise he will forever be the prince over the water, the stabbed in the back, the one true leader. He needs the stake through the heart that can only be delivered by the voters. Long term I think even the Tories will be better off.

    Well he'd probably go all Trump, deny he actually lost and claim zillions of missing votes and mass electoral fraud. Then for the next 30 years the conspiracy theory would spread.

    Even if Boris Johnson drops dead of a heart attack it will be denied by some of his supporters. Nadine Dorries will declare that she spoke to him just last night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    That makes as much sense as the average Russian lie about Ukraine. It doesn't work like that. It's like an MP boasting he won his constituency and offering to produce the verified paperwork with 25000 names backing him to prove it.
    He's probably got a list of 100 potential names of his own of people that he feels are broadly credible, some of whom will have told him they might tomorrow but can't go public about it, just so he leaves them alone.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Do we know for certain how nominations work?

    Surely with most organisations the nominators all sign the "entry form" of the candidate?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    More banter if he loses 52/48
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    That makes as much sense as the average Russian lie about Ukraine. It doesn't work like that. It's like an MP boasting he won his constituency and offering to produce the verified paperwork with 25000 names backing him to prove it.
    He's probably got a list of 100 potential names of his own of people that he feels are broadly credible, some of whom will have told him they might tomorrow but can't go public about it, just so he leaves them alone.
    I don't think you need to look for some way in which it isn't just a blatant lie.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    edited October 23
    Earlier on Francis posed the question of how would team Boris try to explain his not standing in the leadership election.

    'Boris has been in the Caribbean as he felt that was the best way to ensure his successor had a free run and wouldn't have to be concerned about big dog watching over her in parliament. When it became clear Truss would resign, he cut short his holiday, rushing back to the UK to endorse Rishi Sunak in person. He felt this was the best way ensure that the party would unite around a new leader and that his supporters wouldn't then cause trouble for Sunak who is now in a position to lead a united party and therefore give Britain the leadership it needs.'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    More banter if he loses 52/48
    That would be Russian interference to install Sunak. ;)
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Aha - just like the politics we follow.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452
    Bright Penny versus Boris the Slug

    US slang: slug = counterfeit change, for use in subway turnstiles & similar.

    Also means a garden pest known for slime and sloth.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    I’ll believe it when I see it. Let’s just say that.

    This could all be a play to give him the “I had 100 but for sake of unity etc I withdraw” magnanimous shtick.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    As a pedanticbetting.com point of order I feel duty bound to point out that 100 wouldn’t be enough, as one cannot, as I understand it, nominate oneself. 101 is the magic number (I think!!)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    The basis of his support is unambitious backbenchers who have nothing to lose by backing him, keeps their local party and constituents happy. That and compromised ex-Ministers who have been rejected by Sunak, and who are otherwise politically finished. What is now obvious is that there just aren't 100 of them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    edited October 23

    Earlier on Francis posed the question of how would team Boris try to explain his not standing in the leadership election.

    'Boris has been in the Caribbean as he felt that was the best way to ensure his successor had a free run and wouldn't have to be concerned about big dog watching over her in parliament. When it became clear Truss would resign, he cut short his holiday, rushing back to the UK to endorse Rishi Sunak in person. He felt this was the best way ensure that the party would unite around a new leader and that his supporters wouldn't then cause trouble for Sunak who is now in a position to lead a united party and therefore give Britain the leadership it needs.'

    “He would like to make clear that “Dudders” has no formal or social connection with Mr Johnson, and that any campaign style communication was effectively Mr Duddridge freelancing, presumably for his own political benefit.”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    edited October 23
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Fucking hasn't.
    Fucking definitely has and both me and IZ are very old posters
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    Heathener said:

    The Tories need to let Johnson become PM. The only way they and the country will ever be rid of him is to allow the electorate to deliver their verdict on him. Otherwise he will forever be the prince over the water, the stabbed in the back, the one true leader. He needs the stake through the heart that can only be delivered by the voters. Long term I think even the Tories will be better off.

    Well he'd probably go all Trump, deny he actually lost and claim zillions of missing votes and mass electoral fraud. Then for the next 30 years the conspiracy theory would spread.

    Even if Boris Johnson drops dead of a heart attack it will be denied by some of his supporters. Nadine Dorries will declare that she spoke to him just last night.
    Perhaps he would be filmed on a mobile phone working in MaccyD's flipping burgers along with Elvis?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    Hypothetical scenario which comes to mind when hearing Russian calls with UK, France etc

    #Russia detonates dirty bomb in #Ukraine. Blames Ukraine for ‘provocation’. Then drops tactical nuke in ‘retaliation’ before 1st bomb it attributed


    https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1584223234139951106

    The more sane version is they are going to blow the dam. Which was last done in 1941 in an attempt to slow down the German advance.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-russia-plans-blow-up-dam-soviet-wwii-tactic-2022-10?r=US&IR=T
  • TresTres Posts: 1,362

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    rcs1000 said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Re PR:

    There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

    My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

    You need a much higher number of seats per ward to make STV close to proportional.

    At least 6, ideally 8 to 10.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452
    Heathener said:

    The Tories need to let Johnson become PM. The only way they and the country will ever be rid of him is to allow the electorate to deliver their verdict on him. Otherwise he will forever be the prince over the water, the stabbed in the back, the one true leader. He needs the stake through the heart that can only be delivered by the voters. Long term I think even the Tories will be better off.

    Well he'd probably go all Trump, deny he actually lost and claim zillions of missing votes and mass electoral fraud. Then for the next 30 years the conspiracy theory would spread.

    Even if Boris Johnson drops dead of a heart attack it will be denied by some of his supporters. Nadine Dorries will declare that she spoke to him just last night.
    Perhaps BoJo already has the My Pillow guy waiting on stand-by? And Rudy G? Trumps crack(head) squad!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    I don't think penny is dead.
    If Boris says he's not standing at some point then Brady might receive a whole bunch of noms for her with anti Sunak MPs very quickly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    It does look like campaign bs. The way that congratulatory WhatsApp was phrased didn't ring true. Too desperate. And therefore designed to prevent haemorrhaging of support.

    However, against that there are still 100 unknowns on the Guido site and 129 on ConHome.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471

    Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    As a pedanticbetting.com point of order I feel duty bound to point out that 100 wouldn’t be enough, as one cannot, as I understand it, nominate oneself. 101 is the magic number (I think!!)
    Well that'll be messy if he gets 100.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Fucking hasn't.
    Fucking definitely has and both me and IZ are very old posters
    I was here *before* Farmer Tupaq. Nothing much has changed - including the complaints of rudeness.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    Make that 40 Anons then

    Guido paste green cells to 100 now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,213

    The Tories need to let Johnson become PM. The only way they and the country will ever be rid of him is to allow the electorate to deliver their verdict on him. Otherwise he will forever be the prince over the water, the stabbed in the back, the one true leader. He needs the stake through the heart that can only be delivered by the voters. Long term I think even the Tories will be better off.

    Get you but not risk free. When Trump was 1st impeached I thought the same - much better he survives this and gets spanked at the ballot box, otherwise there'll be no end of myth and he'll be forever the wronged hero and "real" president to tens of millions of Americans. Now? - I wish he'd been convicted.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,402

    kinabalu said:

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    I know! What a cult.
    Be careful with predictive text!
    Yeah right so easy to switch cult and calamity!
  • Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    Gets 100+ nominations but gets under 100 votes, yet still wins member vote

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    It doesn't demolish Guidos credibility at all. MPs don't have to tell him they're nominating Boris. Some might have it between themselves and Brady.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    Make that 40 Anons then

    Guido paste green cells to 100 now
    Amazing how it’s exactly 100. Just after the latest garbage emanating from the Bozo campaign .
  • Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

    What you been up to?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,492

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Lord Stewart Jackson?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    Tres said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
    well its probably a reason about 3% of posters are female . So yes tone down the language might be more "inclusive"
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    Marcus01 said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Aha - just like the politics we follow.
    well quite - its not an improvement i can assure you in politics it becoming more loutish and sweary
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Tres said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
    well its probably a reason about 3% of posters are female . So yes tone down the language might be more "inclusive"
    One reason perhaps, but it’s also a politics/betting site, with side interests in pubs, test cricket, racing, F1 etc, so tends to the male gender and more nerdish element.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,461
    rcs1000 said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Re PR:

    There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

    My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

    I also found it an ironic view.
    I’d been reading through the debates when PR got passed by Parliament in 1917 (but died in inter-House ping-pong): MPs opposed to STV frequently decried it for strengthening the constituency link, and giving advantage to a type of MP they called “the grubber” who worked their constituency hard - because it gave a choice of MP within Party, and thus the MP couldn’t just get in based on their Party.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Alistair said:

    The banter timeline is Boris gets exactly 100 MPs.

    Wins the members vote 52/48

    Gets 100+ nominations but gets under 100 votes, yet still wins member vote

    Oh, of course, you are correct. Thats is the top bantz result.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755

    Hypothetical scenario which comes to mind when hearing Russian calls with UK, France etc

    #Russia detonates dirty bomb in #Ukraine. Blames Ukraine for ‘provocation’. Then drops tactical nuke in ‘retaliation’ before 1st bomb it attributed


    https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1584223234139951106

    The more sane version is they are going to blow the dam. Which was last done in 1941 in an attempt to slow down the German advance.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-russia-plans-blow-up-dam-soviet-wwii-tactic-2022-10?r=US&IR=T
    You’d think there might be enough partisans in the area to be ready to defuse and remove the mines as soon as Russians vacate. Or even beforehand depending how carefully they’re guarding it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    nico679 said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    Make that 40 Anons then

    Guido paste green cells to 100 now
    Amazing how it’s exactly 100. Just after the latest garbage emanating from the Bozo campaign .
    Even dodgy Guido only has him on 79 incl a whole stack of Anons
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    edited October 23

    Tres said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
    well its probably a reason about 3% of posters are female . So yes tone down the language might be more "inclusive"
    One reason perhaps, but it’s also a politics/betting site, with side interests in pubs, test cricket, racing, F1 etc, so tends to the male gender and more nerdish element.
    yes and its easy to get taken in and groupthink (or swear) - its not pleasant for outsiders who at best think its juvenile and clique . This site used to be a wise , informative and above all civil place - now it is no better than twitter , its not an improvement
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Heathener said:

    It does look like campaign bs. The way that congratulatory WhatsApp was phrased didn't ring true. Too desperate. And therefore designed to prevent haemorrhaging of support.

    However, against that there are still 100 unknowns on the Guido site and 129 on ConHome.

    It's probably that and designed to get a few more waverers to commit, so it "becomes" true after the telling. He could then plausibly deny it was ever anything thus.

    I think if Boris actually had them he'd formally launch his campaign. Everyone else has.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452
    Am amusing myself for (part of) Sunday by filling out my 2022 general election ballot.

    US Senator, US House, WA Secretary of State, state senate & state house - those choices already decided before today.

    What's slowing me down are 1) some contested judicial races (lower level) where I need to do a bit of research (mostly via official voters pamphlet); and 2) competing ballot measures re: changing current Top Two primary system for nominating mayor, city attorney and city councilmembers to something different.

    Something different being primary with either

    A - affirmative voting (vote for as many candidates as you want for just one position, with Top Two total vote-getters advancing to general; or

    B - ranked choice voting (up to five choices) in order of preference, with Top Two finishers advancing.

    Of the options, personally prefer A. However, am NOT sure I really want to chance current system; on balance think I probably am.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734
    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    Tres said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
    well its probably a reason about 3% of posters are female . So yes tone down the language might be more "inclusive"
    One reason perhaps, but it’s also a politics/betting site, with side interests in pubs, test cricket, racing, F1 etc, so tends to the male gender and more nerdish element.
    yes and its easy to get taken in and groupthink (or swear) - its not pleasant for outsiders who at best think its juvenile and clique . This site used to be a wise , informative and above all civil place - now it is no better than twitter , its not an improvement
    It is about 2 orders or more more civil than most online forums.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    Guido changes since start of today:

    Rishi +18
    Boris +2
    Penny +1
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    nico679 said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    Make that 40 Anons then

    Guido paste green cells to 100 now
    Amazing how it’s exactly 100. Just after the latest garbage emanating from the Bozo campaign .
    Guido's spreadsheet is still reading 76, not 100.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,213

    kinabalu said:

    Doesn't sound confident....

    Told one prominent Boris supporter is phoning MPs saying “we have to keep going. We have to kill off Rishi, and we have to kill off everyone who supports Rishi”. MP tells me, “Boris’s hard core supporters have gone mad. It’s like Waco in there”. So that’s reassuring…

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584226891807879168

    I know! What a cult.
    Be careful with predictive text!
    Yeah, I was going for the ban. Total cook-up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Looks close to me on the Guido + anon count.

    I assume CHH has an (optimistic) list that looks like the latter, hence his OTT tweet.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,768
    edited October 23
    darkage said:

    The basis of his support is unambitious backbenchers who have nothing to lose by backing him, keeps their local party and constituents happy. That and compromised ex-Ministers who have been rejected by Sunak, and who are otherwise politically finished. What is now obvious is that there just aren't 100 of them.

    It's a secret ballot so an MP can pretend to support Johnson to appease those locals who are out with their pitchforks but then nominate or vote for someone else in private. Nobody is ever going to know. It's exactly what I would if I had a constituency association full of Johnson zealots.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734
    MikeL said:

    Guido changes since start of today:

    Rishi +18
    Boris +2
    Penny +1

    Johnson on a roll. Er...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,213

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

    What you been up to?
    Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    Problem for Rishi is he has come into government at a time of factionalism. I hope he doesn't resort to the cliqueness of his predecessors.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452

    rcs1000 said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Re PR:

    There's no perfect system: all contain many, many faults. The only question, really, is which faults do you find least offensive.

    My view is that we should move to small multi member wards for local councils (say 3 councilors per ward) elected by STV, and see how that works for us. If it improves governance, then we can talk about whether we'd like to do something similar with Westminster.

    I also found it an ironic view.
    I’d been reading through the debates when PR got passed by Parliament in 1917 (but died in inter-House ping-pong): MPs opposed to STV frequently decried it for strengthening the constituency link, and giving advantage to a type of MP they called “the grubber” who worked their constituency hard - because it gave a choice of MP within Party, and thus the MP couldn’t just get in based on their Party.
    That's certainly been VERY true in Republic of Ireland. Between parties and within parties.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges Twitter
    Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".

    7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734
    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    52m
    NEW: Chris Heaton Harris tells Boris supporters Whatsapp that the verified paperwork with 100 names backing Johnson has been "completed".

    It it were true (hint: it isn't) it would completely demolish Guido's credibility, since he has Johnson on 60 named backers, 76 with anons.
    Make that 40 Anons then

    Guido paste green cells to 100 now
    Amazing how it’s exactly 100. Just after the latest garbage emanating from the Bozo campaign .
    Even dodgy Guido only has him on 79 incl a whole stack of Anons
    76, just sayin'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,041
    The REAL bantz would be if a bunch are lying to Boris about their support for him.....
  • Could I point out Heaton Harris' message doesn't actually say there are 100 names. It implies it but could be read as saying to backers we have YOUR signatures in (noting also Tom Newton Dunn's comment that actually the campaign doesn't do this element).

    It's clearly deliberate to imply they have the 100... but there's enough there if you read it carefully to allow him to deny that's what he meant.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471

    Problem for Rishi is he has come into government at a time of factionalism. I hope he doesn't resort to the cliqueness of his predecessors.

    His main problem is that he may prove Truss-like.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202
    kinabalu said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

    What you been up to?
    Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.
    I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Tres said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Good we need old posters back as the tone and general uncouthness of this site has worsened over the years
    Bring back Colin W's mum.
    well its probably a reason about 3% of posters are female . So yes tone down the language might be more "inclusive"
    One reason perhaps, but it’s also a politics/betting site, with side interests in pubs, test cricket, racing, F1 etc, so tends to the male gender and more nerdish element.
    yes and its easy to get taken in and groupthink (or swear) - its not pleasant for outsiders who at best think its juvenile and clique . This site used to be a wise , informative and above all civil place - now it is no better than twitter , its not an improvement
    I think to say it’s no better than twitter is too strong. I’d suggest 20s on twitter to reaquant yourself. There is much useful knowledge on here among the purile puns and insults.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734

    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Looks close to me on the Guido + anon count.

    I assume CHH has an (optimistic) list that looks like the latter, hence his OTT tweet.
    Though Johnson has only increased by 2 today. At this rate it will take him until Bonfire Night to make the 100.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452
    In lead-up to Guy Fawkes Day 2022, another Guido, 417 year later, is yet again toiling beneath the bowels of Westminster, on a mission to blow Parliament sky high.

    Coincidence? Kismet? Karma? Conservative?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kinabalu said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

    What you been up to?
    Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.
    I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.
    I think a 1:10 commenter to lurker ratio is usually regarded as standard.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    Boris hasn’t declared.
    But nor he has he yet pulled out.

    The ERG are due to decide tomorrow who they plump for. Though that itself suggests a level of Boris skepticism. Baker, Braverman and IDS are all on Team Rishi.

    I know there is a theory that Boris needs to be voted down in a GE, but that underestimates the damage he is capable of.

    With luck he will be forced to withdraw from this race in humiliating fashion, and be out of Parliament in a few months under censure from the Privileges Committee.
  • Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Aren't you assuming they'll all nominate a candidate there, which is unlikely?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    Hypothetical scenario which comes to mind when hearing Russian calls with UK, France etc

    #Russia detonates dirty bomb in #Ukraine. Blames Ukraine for ‘provocation’. Then drops tactical nuke in ‘retaliation’ before 1st bomb it attributed


    https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1584223234139951106

    The more sane version is they are going to blow the dam. Which was last done in 1941 in an attempt to slow down the German advance.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-russia-plans-blow-up-dam-soviet-wwii-tactic-2022-10?r=US&IR=T
    It would prevent further evacuation from the right bank, but also as the left bank is lower by a couple of meters, flood their own new positions.

    It does seem as if the Ukranians are pushing towards the dam rather than to Kherson city itself.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452

    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Looks close to me on the Guido + anon count.

    I assume CHH has an (optimistic) list that looks like the latter, hence his OTT tweet.
    Though Johnson has only increased by 2 today. At this rate it will take him until Bonfire Night to make the 100.
    Who is going to be the leading Guy/Gal of Honor at this year's weenie roast?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,734

    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Aren't you assuming they'll all nominate a candidate there, which is unlikely?
    Yes. Very good point. Just makes it harder for Johnson to make it.
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 29

    Latest extrapolation from Guido's spreadsheet

    Based on the Guido 'named' nomimations
    Sunak 226
    Johnson 91
    Mordaunt 38

    Based on the Guido named + anonymous nomimations
    Sunak 212
    Johnson 105
    Mordaunt 38

    Take your pick.

    Looks close to me on the Guido + anon count.

    I assume CHH has an (optimistic) list that looks like the latter, hence his OTT tweet.
    True but these extrapolations all look optimistic for BJ - surely it would be a rare election where every single person eligible to make a nomination does so? Though maybe the current situation incentivises it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    Marcus01 said:

    It’s good to be back. I last posted about ten years ago but read you all every day.

    Ah yes, young Marcus. Remember you well. Welcome back.

    What you been up to?
    Reading us every day apparently. Unusual hobby.
    I think @rcs1000 can confirm that the lurker to poster ratio is huge.
    I think a 1:10 commenter to lurker ratio is usually regarded as standard.
    It would be good to understand this ratio, and also to see some kind of demographic analysis, perhaps via survey.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,854

    Could I point out Heaton Harris' message doesn't actually say there are 100 names. It implies it but could be read as saying to backers we have YOUR signatures in (noting also Tom Newton Dunn's comment that actually the campaign doesn't do this element).

    It's clearly deliberate to imply they have the 100... but there's enough there if you read it carefully to allow him to deny that's what he meant.

    Or possibly, he really is that thick and doesn't have a clue what he is saying?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    edited October 23
    Heathener said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges Twitter
    Senior Penny Mordaunt ally: "The 100 names thing tonight is definitely a bluff. We've had more Boris backers trickle over and there's increased nervousness within his camp".

    7:04 PM · Oct 23, 2022

    It's a good tip of @Pulpstar up thread to keep an eye on Penny.
This discussion has been closed.