If the party cannot summon the will to act, dissidents should vote against the mini-Budget and precipitate a general election, knowing that half will lose their seats. Such is patriotism. The last circuit-breaker is for King Charles to exercise ancient sovereign powers. Few wish to see our Whig constitution put to that test.
In 1976 Chancellor Healey flew early to the IMF to negotiate the meta loan and spending cuts that ended the Keynesian consensus. In 2022 Chancellor Kwarteng flies back early from the IMF to reverse unfunded tax cuts and the Thatcherite consensus. A bookending to close an era.
Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.
It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
With respect I think you are missing the point.
There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.
But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.
This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
I’m not certain saying there’s “no great enthusiasm” and getting >50% in some polls are entirely consistent.
I think they are consistent. I remember the New Labour vibe from the mid nineties, and Starmer does still lack that, so his poll lead could prove quite ephemeral. With the right leader, such as Mordaunt, Con could be back on 30%.
I’m not sure the electorate is really in the mood for an exciting change vibe. A period of calm and stability would suit a lot of people I think.
If the mid 90s was Britain in Friday night garb getting ready to go clubbing, the early 2020s feels more like Britain on Sunday morning badly needing a lie in and a cooked breakfast.
This week in Brexitland, after a poll puts the Tories on 19% it's time to ask: is the Conservative party facing extinction come the next election? I dig into the numbers and discover that the polling is even worse for the Tories than you might think: https://nicktyrone.substack.com/p/this-week-in-brexitland-october-14th
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
. But even those who stayed the course with Truss throughout the leadership campaign are now convinced she will be "out by Christmas". "Boris had no beliefs but Liz has got far too many," another MP said. "She believes in policies rather than people. Even Theresa May believed in people and communities. Liz is all ideology. The big thing, the big question, is can we get rid of her without the public saying, 'You’re a complete bunch of clowns'? And if not, does that even matter?”
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
Normally, yes. With the economy at stake, action has to be immediate.
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly: if the assassination Could trammel up the consequence, and catch With his surcease success; that but this blow Might be the be-all and the end-all here, But here, upon this bank and shoal of time, We’ld jump the life to come.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
Polling heavily favours Truss being replaced and Sunak's numbers look v. good:
"As for her potential replacements, 43 per cent of the public said that Sunak would make a better PM, with just 18 per cent saying Truss would be better than the former chancellor. Asked the same question of Boris Johnson, 35 per cent of Britons thought he would be better than Truss and 28 per cent said he would be worse."
I think public support is there for Tories to do this.
Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.
It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
With respect I think you are missing the point.
There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.
But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.
This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
There is very rarely any great enthusiasm for the opposition - 1997 is the very big exception to that rule. What’s notable about recent polling, though, is that it’s not just about the Tory vote collapsing, but also the Labour one advancing, not only on the headline number but across all secondaries. As someone who believes the overwhelming priority next time around is that the Tories are taught a lesson that even they will find hard to ignore (this country needs a moderate, pro-business, centre-right party) that worries me. My concern is that Labour might end up doing too well in some seats the LibDems could take from the Tories, so stopping it from happening. That might save a lot of Tory MPs.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
. But even those who stayed the course with Truss throughout the leadership campaign are now convinced she will be "out by Christmas". "Boris had no beliefs but Liz has got far too many," another MP said. "She believes in policies rather than people. Even Theresa May believed in people and communities. Liz is all ideology. The big thing, the big question, is can we get rid of her without the public saying, 'You’re a complete bunch of clowns'? And if not, does that even matter?”
Redbox. Gets Truss to a T.
Now: Public think they are a bunch of clowns Truss stays: Public think they are a cowardly bunch of clowns Truss goes: Public think they are a bunch of clowns
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
No, I've just had a newborn baby, I'm delighted.
If there's anyone on here that suffers from anger management issues, and a desire to drag everyone down to your level in a fit of wanton destruction, it's you.
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
Normally, yes. With the economy at stake, action has to be immediate.
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly: if the assassination Could trammel up the consequence, and catch With his surcease success; that but this blow Might be the be-all and the end-all here, But here, upon this bank and shoal of time, We’ld jump the life to come.
Letting I dare not wait upon I would, is the Tory backbencher's stock in trade.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
They’re better at the PR game without a shadow of a doubt. Whether that means they are managing to keep any wrongdoing under wraps or that they are more disciplined because they rely on western public opinion I couldn’t say. Maybe neither and they just treat their prisoners better.
Hopefully, the government understands this means there has to be a major u-turn. If they read the falls incorrectly there will be an absolute market bloodbath.
Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.
It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
With respect I think you are missing the point.
There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.
But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.
This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
I’m not certain saying there’s “no great enthusiasm” and getting >50% in some polls are entirely consistent.
I think they are consistent. I remember the New Labour vibe from the mid nineties, and Starmer does still lack that, so his poll lead could prove quite ephemeral. With the right leader, such as Mordaunt, Con could be back on 30%.
Yup. Starmer isn't Blair, but Truss is worse than Major.
And Britain isn't Booming, and shows no signs of doing so in the next two years.
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
There is nothing liberal about Woke.
You need to learn and understand this.
Woke (as a noun rather than a verb and even then it’s archaic) is an invention of the Right to demonise their opponents. If you see anyone using the word it’s a tell. They’re a reactionary. It’s the right’s rebadge of “PC gone mad” for boomers.
Nick Robinson is so far and away the best interviewer in the UK at the moment that I'm surprised he's not used more often. Currently humiliating Greg Hands (not too difficult I agree but he does it so much better than dreary brutes like Andrew Neil)
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
It last happened in 1940, with Chamberlain staying on as party leader, as I recall.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
There is nothing liberal about Woke.
You need to learn and understand this.
Woke (as a noun rather than a verb and even then it’s archaic) is an invention of the Right to demonise their opponents. If you see anyone using the word it’s a tell. They’re a reactionary. It’s the right’s rebadge of “PC gone mad” for boomers.
It has been explained repeatedly to you on here, repeatedly, that it's about an obsession with classifying people by identity group and treating them as members of that group accordingly, rather than as individuals, and is therefore in direct opposition to enlightenment values.
Hopefully, the government understands this means there has to be a major u-turn. If they read the falls incorrectly there will be an absolute market bloodbath.
They will read the falls as the market starting to agree with them - after all any other interpretation won’t reflect Truss’s world view that she is right and the world in wrong…
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
No, but I'm saying the full leadership contest process is the default unless a coronation (no other candidates contesting) can be arranged.
31st December is a bit skinny for that so I'm not sure I'm tempted.
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
It is the responsibility of the parliamentary party to propose two sensible candidates.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
Would be really hard to be as bad as the Russians.
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
It is the responsibility of the parliamentary party to propose two sensible candidates.
Unreasonably high bar, they only have 356 to choose from. Two non bonkers candidates might be possible however.
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
It is the responsibility of the parliamentary party to propose two sensible candidates.
Problem was, last time 50%+ of the field were batshit ones.
This week in Brexitland, after a poll puts the Tories on 19% it's time to ask: is the Conservative party facing extinction come the next election? I dig into the numbers and discover that the polling is even worse for the Tories than you might think: https://nicktyrone.substack.com/p/this-week-in-brexitland-october-14th
Yup - there is no route to winning the election short of something ginormous that destroys Labour and all they stand for. The Tories dilemma isn't whether they should replace Truss but with whom. We saw what happens when everyone agrees the PM is a disaster and gets removed, only for the replacement to be magnitudes worse.
So the Tories have to move very carefully. Get this spectacularly wrong and they lose spectacularly. And as harsh as this is for some to read, the Tory sense of political judgement is in a very dark place. The piece talks about 40 seats. That would be a good result on some scenarios...
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
It last happened in 1940, with Chamberlain staying on as party leader, as I recall.
Good spot! Chamberlain remained party leader for just 5 months though, and was succeeded by Churchill.
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
"Leader, here's a big pad of paper and a box of crayons. Why don't you do a coloured-in manifesto for the Prime Minister to consider? No rush....""
Sky business saying big moves in bond markets reflecting the markets positive response to the proposed change in the mini budget
All we need now is Truss and Kwarteng resignations and if they are listening today would be very acceptable
The terror is that they botch the u-turn. The markets are taking no prisoners now - do what we say or we will kill you. But Truss still thinks she is the smartest person in the room, Kwarteng is her Keith Joseph, together they still firmly believe they are right.
Combine that with their comedic lack of political chops and there is still time to screw up very very badly before the markets close today, and certainly before Asian markets open late on Sunday.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
Im told the DoD is spitting. They are really f****d off with him given the amount he is asking for and the fact that he has sprung it on them with no discussion.
They feel like he is trying to put pressure on them … threatening the US government isn’t a smart look…
This week in Brexitland, after a poll puts the Tories on 19% it's time to ask: is the Conservative party facing extinction come the next election? I dig into the numbers and discover that the polling is even worse for the Tories than you might think: https://nicktyrone.substack.com/p/this-week-in-brexitland-october-14th
Yup - there is no route to winning the election short of something ginormous that destroys Labour and all they stand for. The Tories dilemma isn't whether they should replace Truss but with whom. We saw what happens when everyone agrees the PM is a disaster and gets removed, only for the replacement to be magnitudes worse.
So the Tories have to move very carefully. Get this spectacularly wrong and they lose spectacularly. And as harsh as this is for some to read, the Tory sense of political judgement is in a very dark place. The piece talks about 40 seats. That would be a good result on some scenarios...
I very much doubt they can lose more spectacularly then the recent poll showing just 4 conservatives left after GE24
Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.
These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
I'm not sure as for her to exit as Conservative leader it requires the contest to complete which basically requires a quick dispatch and coronation.
I'm not tempted.
Are you suggesting that Truss could remain as Con leader but the PM is someone else?
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
It last happened in 1940, with Chamberlain staying on as party leader, as I recall.
Good spot! Chamberlain remained party leader for just 5 months though, and was succeeded by Churchill.
Because he died. If he hadn't he could conceivably have stayed party leader all through the war, which would have been - interesting - in 1945.
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
It is the responsibility of the parliamentary party to propose two sensible candidates.
Problem was, last time 50%+ of the field were batshit ones.
And half of the MPs were determined to have a batshit candidate put forward.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.
It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
With respect I think you are missing the point.
There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.
But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.
This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
There is very rarely any great enthusiasm for the opposition - 1997 is the very big exception to that rule. What’s notable about recent polling, though, is that it’s not just about the Tory vote collapsing, but also the Labour one advancing, not only on the headline number but across all secondaries. As someone who believes the overwhelming priority next time around is that the Tories are taught a lesson that even they will find hard to ignore (this country needs a moderate, pro-business, centre-right party) that worries me. My concern is that Labour might end up doing too well in some seats the LibDems could take from the Tories, so stopping it from happening. That might save a lot of Tory MPs.
I think as one gets nearer the vote, tactical voting considerations will kick in. It won’t be Tory MPs saving their seats because Labour splits the LibDem vote, it will be Tory MPs losing seats because Labour voters switch to the LibDems.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
Good question. I would suggest a combination of all of the above, and the fact that there are few enemy civilians in the war zone. Russian POWs that have been released, have generally said they were treated well.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
Who was it who says 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy?'
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
They’re better at the PR game without a shadow of a doubt. Whether that means they are managing to keep any wrongdoing under wraps or that they are more disciplined because they rely on western public opinion I couldn’t say. Maybe neither and they just treat their prisoners better.
There is the 15 minute phone call home that Ukraine gives to POWs, which is quite a smart humanitarian move, or great PR if you are more cynically inclined.
However, there was a filmed battlefield incident that perhaps shows the true difference. A Russian soldier was trapped by his leg against a wrecked vehicle. He pleaded with a Ukrainian soldier to shoot him. The Ukrainians set about freeing him, even as the battle raged around them. The Russian was told as they saved his life "We aren't like you, dickhead...."
Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...
Perhaps, but there is a bit of a 'you can have any colour car you want as long as its black' type answer. If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway. In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
It is the responsibility of the parliamentary party to propose two sensible candidates.
Yep, if the MPs don’t want to work with one of the candidates, then they shouldn’t have been a candidate in the first place.
Doing a stich-up now, to insert the losing candidate over the heads of the membership, is possibly the worst of all worlds. The MPs either need to support the PM, or cross the floor and vote for an election.
I can’t see either Suella Braverman or Boris Johnson blithely accepting a Sunak/Mourdant coronation.
Indeed, which is why Wallace is the best bet for a coronation as he has always polled well with members, he can then make Sunak Chancellor again and give Mordaunt a top job and keep Braverman in post.
A Sunak Mordaunt ticket would almost certainly see Braverman stand against it, maybe Boris too and if it went to the membership therefore Braverman or Boris would likely win it
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
There's the video of the Russian with the broken back on top of a wrecked BTR getting punched in the face by UAF. There's probably plenty going on on both sides. No saints on the battlefied no matter who the combatants are.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
Who was it who says 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy?'
Reality being Truss' worst enemy ...
I grow weary of egotistical people who think they have a Steve Jobs reality distortion field and dismiss realists as somehow negative. The cause a lot of harm.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
There is nothing wrong with the plan. While ‘Emperor Spirit’ is untested over 3 miles it did well coming 7th over 6 furlongs last November.
And yes I know it’s up against 6 other horses who have all won over 3 miles in the past 6 weeks but the odds make up for the lack of experience…
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.
No, I've just had a newborn baby, I'm delighted.
If there's anyone on here that suffers from anger management issues, and a desire to drag everyone down to your level in a fit of wanton destruction, it's you.
Keep seeking help x
Surely your wife had the baby… unless you are way more work than I have you credit for 😜
Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.
It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
With respect I think you are missing the point.
There is no quesBut it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.
This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
There is very rarely any great enthusiasm for the opposition - 1997 is the very big exception to that rule. What’s notable about recent polling, though, is that it’s not just about the Tory vote collapsing, but also the Labour one advancing, not only on the headline number but across all secondaries. As someone who believes the overwhelming priority next time around is that the Tories are taught a lesson that even they will find hard to ignore (this country needs a moderate, pro-business, centre-right party) that worries me. My concern is that Labour might end up doing too well in some seats the LibDems could take from the Tories, so stopping it from happening. That might save a lot of Tory MPs.
I think as one gets nearer the vote, tactical voting considerations will kick in. It won’t be Tory MPs saving their seats because Labour splits the LibDem vote, it will be Tory MPs losing seats because Labour voters switch to the LibDems.
Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.
Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.
This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.
Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:
That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
Is there any objective appraisal out there of how the Ukrainians have been treating Russians (military and civilian) in the areas they have recaptured? I have seen a few comments about atrocities but nothing on the scale of Russian crimes. Is this because the Ukrainians are more disciplined or because they are better at controlling the news?
They’re better at the PR game without a shadow of a doubt. Whether that means they are managing to keep any wrongdoing under wraps or that they are more disciplined because they rely on western public opinion I couldn’t say. Maybe neither and they just treat their prisoners better.
If they were treating prisoners like the Russians do the West would not be supporting them in the way they are
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
There is nothing liberal about Woke.
You need to learn and understand this.
Woke (as a noun rather than a verb and even then it’s archaic) is an invention of the Right to demonise their opponents. If you see anyone using the word it’s a tell. They’re a reactionary. It’s the right’s rebadge of “PC gone mad” for boomers.
It has been explained repeatedly to you on here, repeatedly, that it's about an obsession with classifying people by identity group and treating them as members of that group accordingly, rather than as individuals, and is therefore in direct opposition to enlightenment values.
None so blind.
The Enlightenment was financed by, and very very ambivalent or silent about, black slavery. Hume and Locke invested in slaves and plantations. Voltaire was against but did have this to say
«Leurs yeux ronds, leur nez épaté, leurs lèvres toujours grosses, leurs oreilles différemment figurées, la laine de leur tête, la mesure même de leur intelligence, mettent entre eux et les autres espèces d’hommes des différences prodigieuses »: Essai sur les moeurs, INTRODUCTION.[1]
(Their round eyes, their flattened nose, their lips which are always large, their differently shaped ears, the wool of their head, that very measure of their intelligence, place prodigious differences between them and the other species of men.)
«[Ε]t ils n’ont d’homme que la stature du corps, avec la faculté de la parole et de la pensée dans un degré très éloigné du nôtre. Tels sont ceux que j’ai vus et examinés»: Essai sur les moeurs, INTRODUCTION.[2]
(And they are not men, except in their stature, with the faculty of speech and thought at a degree far distant to ours. Such are the ones that I have seen and examined.)
«[Ε]t on peut dire que si leur intelligence n’est pas d’une autre espèce que notre entendement, elle est fort inférieure. Ils ne sont pas capables d’une grande attention; ils combinent peu, et ne paraissent faits ni pour les avantages ni pour les abus de notre philosophie»: Essai sur les moeurs, κεφ. CXLI.[3]
(And one could say that if their intelligence is not of another species than ours, then it is greatly inferior. They are not capable of paying much attention; they mingle very little, and they do not appear to be made either for the advantages or the abuses of our philosophy.)
There are historical contexts where it makes sense on all possible levels to classify people by identity group. In 1930s Germany whether someone had a GSOH, liked long walks on the beach and had read Proust in the original mattered a lot less than whether they were Jewish.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
Who was it who says 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy?'
Reality being Truss' worst enemy ...
This is always the problem with ideological zealotry of any political flavour - it goes splat against the wall of reality. What you believe in theory and what is reality are so often not the same thing at all, and at some point bullshit theories get found out.
They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.
It will have to do.
Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.
Anyway, needs must.
Penny would have been better sticking to her guns and defending her liberal views. Trying to pander to the Wokefinder Generals did her in.
There is nothing liberal about Woke.
You need to learn and understand this.
Woke (as a noun rather than a verb and even then it’s archaic) is an invention of the Right to demonise their opponents. If you see anyone using the word it’s a tell. They’re a reactionary. It’s the right’s rebadge of “PC gone mad” for boomers.
It has been explained repeatedly to you on here, repeatedly, that it's about an obsession with classifying people by identity group and treating them as members of that group accordingly, rather than as individuals, and is therefore in direct opposition to enlightenment values.
None so blind.
No, it is about being able to recognise systemic prejudice in society, particularly unconscious prejudice.
The problem is that people do not agree what they mean by "Woke". Of course, the worst and most socially divisive form of identity politics is nationalism, as seen in Russia at present.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
Who was it who says 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy?'
Reality being Truss' worst enemy ...
I grow weary of egotistical people who think they have a Steve Jobs reality distortion field and dismiss realists as somehow negative. The cause a lot of harm.
I'm disappointed you didn't say they're a bunch of Oddballs.
'Will you knock it off with them negative waves...'
Labour on 47 per cent, up seven points on last month, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, down four points, and Liberal Democrats on ten per cent, down three points.
“Yesterday, I announced we were betting the economy on ‘Emperor Spirit’ at the 2.50 race at Haydock. Today I have asked the Chancellor to return early from the US to join me at the course this afternoon as we watch the delivery of our fresh plan for growth.’ https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1580819188947750912/photo/1
Finally a plan! The concern however is that it's untested in current conditions.
There is nothing wrong with the plan. While ‘Emperor Spirit’ is untested over 3 miles it did well coming 7th over 6 furlongs last November.
And yes I know it’s up against 6 other horses who have all won over 3 miles in the past 6 weeks but the odds make up for the lack of experience…
I think Rhys Clutterbuck and Sterling Knight could spoil the plan.
Labour’s 21-point lead is its highest in an Ipsos poll since October 2002, though its methodology has changed over the years.
Labour has its highest vote share since November 2012, and the Conservatives their lowest since June 2019.
One in five 2019 Conservative voters now say they have switched to Labour.
67 per cent of adults are dissatisfied with Ms Truss, up 38 points on last month, with 16 per cent satisfied, down 11 points, and 17 per cent say they “don’t know”, down 27 points.
Her net satisfaction score of -51 is worse than the lowest scores for Boris Johnson (-46), Theresa May (-44), David Cameron (-38) and Tony Blair (-44).
It is similar to Gordon Brown during the 2007/08 financial crisis (-51), but not as bad as John Major (-59) or Margaret Thatcher (-56). But no PM has fallen to this low level so quickly.
Current Conservative voters are split over Ms Truss’ performance, with 40 per cent satisfied and 39 per cent dissatisfied. The majority (56 per cent) of 2019 Conservative voters are dissatisfied.
While Sir Keir Starmer’s ratings are improving, they are not soaring despite the Government’s woes. Thirty-eight per cent per cent of voters are satisfied with him, up seven points on last month, 39 per ent dissatisfied, down six points.
His net satisfaction of -1 is his highest score since February last year when it was +5.
His satisfaction ratings among Labour supporters have risen 11 points to 61 per cent.
Four in five adults are dissatisfied with the Government, up ten points, while just 11 per cent are satisfied. down nine points.
This net satisfaction score of -69 is similar to the worst under Johnson of -67, but not as bad as under Major (-78) and May (-77), but worse than under Cameron (-45), Brown (-62), Blair (-47) and Thatcher (-63).
I think that the problem we must face is that there may not be an end to the war in Ukraine. If Russia can hold a line using mobilised troops, then surely it will, and we know it can take unlimited human losses, because Russians will not rise up against their government. It could just go on for years like this. How many billions can the US pump in to it and how much economic harm can Europe take? Is it indefinete?
The problem that people must see is that there is a very high risk of a sudden political capitulation in Europe and the US over this winter, resulting in withdrawal of political support for the funding of the war in Ukraine at the current levels. This is probably what the 'master strategist' Putin is expecting to happen. There are murmurs of it all over the place, particularly in the US.
There is no way of shutting this type of thinking down in a democracy. The Ukrainian propoganda machine has done a brilliant job to date but it cannot go on like this indefinetly. How deep and resolute is western support for Ukraine? Could the people currently waving Ukrainian flags on Council estates be swayed by the narrative that we are being bankrupted by a woke LGBTQI+ conspiracy? What about all the refugees that we have taken in and expect to be housed indefinetly, whilst a large part of Ukraine is not affected by the fighting?
The position of the French, or trying to find a solution along the lines suggested by Elon Musk, is not totally stupid. If you are going to keep supporting the war, you need to work out what your endgame is and how likely that it will be achieved, and at what cost. I would say that there are two problems, one being that it is unlikely that the war can ultimately actually be won on any conventional level; and secondly that given the political dynamics of Russia, any replacement for Putin and his regime is unlikely to be favourable to our long term interests.
Comments
I'm not tempted.
/2022/10/13/tory-party-must-put-end-fiscal-soap-opera-people-seriously-hurt/
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1580804476633419776
Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical Starlink satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1580700679810666496
Claims it has cost him $100m so far.
And TBF it's a service that justifies its cost many times over in this case.
If the mid 90s was Britain in Friday night garb getting ready to go clubbing, the early 2020s feels more like Britain on Sunday morning badly needing a lie in and a cooked breakfast.
https://nicktyrone.substack.com/p/this-week-in-brexitland-october-14th
https://mobile.twitter.com/WeirdMedieval/status/1577327517819600905
I have also many times said that we expect/want political events to play out in 24-hr rolling news time, which they never do.
Redbox. Gets Truss to a T.
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly: if the assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
With his surcease success; that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all here,
But here, upon this bank and shoal of time,
We’ld jump the life to come.
BIG fall in benchmark 10yr UK govt bond yield this morning.
Was 4.3% yday.
Down to just over 4% when trading opened in UK markets just now. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580816910966747137/photo/1
Lab 49% (+1)
Con 25% (-1)
LibDem 11% (+1)
Green 6% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
1,626 questioned on 12-13 October. Changes with 5-6 October.
Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1580815735391023105/photo/1
These, critically, are the bonds at the heart of the @bankofengland emergency intervention.
They all rose sharply following the mini-budget.
Now, amid speculation abt u-turns, they're falling. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580817936133955585/photo/1
If the members pick the 'wrong' candidate, the party in Parliament will just replace them with who they preferred anyway.
In which case, what is the point of being a party member?
Sure, Truss needs to go, but don't think for a second the members will be happy with that.
"As for her potential replacements, 43 per cent of the public said that Sunak would make a better PM, with just 18 per cent saying Truss would be better than the former chancellor. Asked the same question of Boris Johnson, 35 per cent of Britons thought he would be better than Truss and 28 per cent said he would be worse."
I think public support is there for Tories to do this.
With friends like these.......
Truss stays: Public think they are a cowardly bunch of clowns
Truss goes: Public think they are a bunch of clowns
If there's anyone on here that suffers from anger management issues, and a desire to drag everyone down to your level in a fit of wanton destruction, it's you.
Keep seeking help x
Sky business saying big moves in bond markets reflecting the markets positive response to the proposed change in the mini budget
All we need now is Truss and Kwarteng resignations and if they are listening today would be very acceptable
And Britain isn't Booming, and shows no signs of doing so in the next two years.
As far as I know that is not against the rules, but I don't know of it ever happening in the UK. In other countries this is fairly common: the party leader leads their party while the PM or similar gets on with running the country, so the party leader sits between a UK party chairman and leader. But this it would be very unusual in the UK, and frankly I cannot believe that Truss would stay to lead a party where the MPs have just ousted her.
You need to learn and understand this.
Or is his reputation as a Tory of good morals and judgement still intact?
None so blind.
31st December is a bit skinny for that so I'm not sure I'm tempted.
So the Tories have to move very carefully. Get this spectacularly wrong and they lose spectacularly. And as harsh as this is for some to read, the Tory sense of political judgement is in a very dark place. The piece talks about 40 seats. That would be a good result on some scenarios...
https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL
He's backed the wrong horse this time.
Chamberlain remained party leader for just 5 months though, and was succeeded by Churchill.
Combine that with their comedic lack of political chops and there is still time to screw up very very badly before the markets close today, and certainly before Asian markets open late on Sunday.
They feel like he is trying to put pressure on them … threatening the US government isn’t a smart look…
Reality being Truss' worst enemy ...
However, there was a filmed battlefield incident that perhaps shows the true difference. A Russian soldier was trapped by his leg against a wrecked vehicle. He pleaded with a Ukrainian soldier to shoot him. The Ukrainians set about freeing him, even as the battle raged around them. The Russian was told as they saved his life "We aren't like you, dickhead...."
Doing a stich-up now, to insert the losing candidate over the heads of the membership, is possibly the worst of all worlds. The MPs either need to support the PM, or cross the floor and vote for an election.
A Sunak Mordaunt ticket would almost certainly see Braverman stand against it, maybe Boris too and if it went to the membership therefore Braverman or Boris would likely win it
They had their chance. They fucked it up.
Either the MPs pick a new leader, or it goes to the voters.
And yes I know it’s up against 6 other horses who have all won over 3 miles in the past 6 weeks but the odds make up for the lack of experience…
Given the Conservative majority of 80 there will also be no chance of a lost VONC leading to a general election before it is due
«Leurs yeux ronds, leur nez épaté, leurs lèvres toujours grosses, leurs oreilles différemment figurées, la laine de leur tête, la mesure même de leur intelligence, mettent entre eux et les autres espèces d’hommes des différences prodigieuses »: Essai sur les moeurs, INTRODUCTION.[1]
(Their round eyes, their flattened nose, their lips which are always large, their differently shaped ears, the wool of their head, that very measure of their intelligence, place prodigious differences between them and the other species of men.)
«[Ε]t ils n’ont d’homme que la stature du corps, avec la faculté de la parole et de la pensée dans un degré très éloigné du nôtre. Tels sont ceux que j’ai vus et examinés»: Essai sur les moeurs, INTRODUCTION.[2]
(And they are not men, except in their stature, with the faculty of speech and thought at a degree far distant to ours. Such are the ones that I have seen and examined.)
«[Ε]t on peut dire que si leur intelligence n’est pas d’une autre espèce que notre entendement, elle est fort inférieure. Ils ne sont pas capables d’une grande attention; ils combinent peu, et ne paraissent faits ni pour les avantages ni pour les abus de notre philosophie»: Essai sur les moeurs, κεφ. CXLI.[3]
(And one could say that if their intelligence is not of another species than ours, then it is greatly inferior. They are not capable of paying much attention; they mingle very little, and they do not appear to be made either for the advantages or the abuses of our philosophy.)
There are historical contexts where it makes sense on all possible levels to classify people by identity group. In 1930s Germany whether someone had a GSOH, liked long walks on the beach and had read Proust in the original mattered a lot less than whether they were Jewish.
The problem is that people do not agree what they mean by "Woke". Of course, the worst and most socially divisive form of identity politics is nationalism, as seen in Russia at present.
'Will you knock it off with them negative waves...'
Labour on 47 per cent, up seven points on last month, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, down four points, and Liberal Democrats on ten per cent, down three points.
Labour’s 21-point lead is its highest in an Ipsos poll since October 2002, though its methodology has changed over the years.
Labour has its highest vote share since November 2012, and the Conservatives their lowest since June 2019.
One in five 2019 Conservative voters now say they have switched to Labour.
67 per cent of adults are dissatisfied with Ms Truss, up 38 points on last month, with 16 per cent satisfied, down 11 points, and 17 per cent say they “don’t know”, down 27 points.
Her net satisfaction score of -51 is worse than the lowest scores for Boris Johnson (-46), Theresa May (-44), David Cameron (-38) and Tony Blair (-44).
It is similar to Gordon Brown during the 2007/08 financial crisis (-51), but not as bad as John Major (-59) or Margaret Thatcher (-56). But no PM has fallen to this low level so quickly.
Current Conservative voters are split over Ms Truss’ performance, with 40 per cent satisfied and 39 per cent dissatisfied. The majority (56 per cent) of 2019 Conservative voters are dissatisfied.
While Sir Keir Starmer’s ratings are improving, they are not soaring despite the Government’s woes. Thirty-eight per cent per cent of voters are satisfied with him, up seven points on last month, 39 per ent dissatisfied, down six points.
His net satisfaction of -1 is his highest score since February last year when it was +5.
His satisfaction ratings among Labour supporters have risen 11 points to 61 per cent.
Four in five adults are dissatisfied with the Government, up ten points, while just 11 per cent are satisfied. down nine points.
This net satisfaction score of -69 is similar to the worst under Johnson of -67, but not as bad as under Major (-78) and May (-77), but worse than under Cameron (-45), Brown (-62), Blair (-47) and Thatcher (-63).
The problem that people must see is that there is a very high risk of a sudden political capitulation in Europe and the US over this winter, resulting in withdrawal of political support for the funding of the war in Ukraine at the current levels. This is probably what the 'master strategist' Putin is expecting to happen. There are murmurs of it all over the place, particularly in the US.
There is no way of shutting this type of thinking down in a democracy. The Ukrainian propoganda machine has done a brilliant job to date but it cannot go on like this indefinetly. How deep and resolute is western support for Ukraine? Could the people currently waving Ukrainian flags on Council estates be swayed by the narrative that we are being bankrupted by a woke LGBTQI+ conspiracy? What about all the refugees that we have taken in and expect to be housed indefinetly, whilst a large part of Ukraine is not affected by the fighting?
The position of the French, or trying to find a solution along the lines suggested by Elon Musk, is not totally stupid. If you are going to keep supporting the war, you need to work out what your endgame is and how likely that it will be achieved, and at what cost. I would say that there are two problems, one being that it is unlikely that the war can ultimately actually be won on any conventional level; and secondly that given the political dynamics of Russia, any replacement for Putin and his regime is unlikely to be favourable to our long term interests.