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The pressure mounts on Truss for a Budget U-Turn – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,221
edited October 2022 in General
imageThe pressure mounts on Truss for a Budget U-Turn – politicalbetting.com

Another set of difficult front pages for Truss as the pressure mounts on her to perform another U-Turn on what has been the defining feature of her time at Number 10 – the controversial proposals in the first budget.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrequentLurkerFrequentLurker Posts: 84
    You wait ages for your first first then two come along at once...
  • FrequentLurkerFrequentLurker Posts: 84
    Can plotting Tory MPs get a VoNC though? Under the rules, isn't Truss safe for a year having just been elected?

    I appreciate rules can be changed but if they need to be, that's another hurdle for the plotters, which can only reduce their chances of success.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,482
    More grist to the mini-budget u-turn mill:-

    Kwasi Kwarteng flies back to London from US a day early
    Move raises speculation over another mini-budget U-turn
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kwasi-kwarteng-flies-back-to-london-from-us-a-day-early-b2zcgtcd2 (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,482
    FrequentLurker said:

    Can plotting Tory MPs get a VoNC though? Under the rules, isn't Truss safe for a year having just been elected?

    I appreciate rules can be changed but if they need to be, that's another hurdle for the plotters, which can only reduce their chances of success.

    It was reported that Theresa May resigned when the 1922 Committee threatened to change the rules to allow an early challenge.
  • FrequentLurkerFrequentLurker Posts: 84
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrequentLurker said:

    Can plotting Tory MPs get a VoNC though? Under the rules, isn't Truss safe for a year having just been elected?

    I appreciate rules can be changed but if they need to be, that's another hurdle for the plotters, which can only reduce their chances of success.

    It was reported that Theresa May resigned when the 1922 Committee threatened to change the rules to allow an early challenge.
    Can't see Truss doing that, just six weeks in...
  • FrequentLurkerFrequentLurker Posts: 84
    FrequentLurker said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrequentLurker said:

    Can plotting Tory MPs get a VoNC though? Under the rules, isn't Truss safe for a year having just been elected?

    I appreciate rules can be changed but if they need to be, that's another hurdle for the plotters, which can only reduce their chances of success.

    It was reported that Theresa May resigned when the 1922 Committee threatened to change the rules to allow an early challenge.
    Can't see Truss doing that, just six weeks in...
    Curiously my post is showing with just DecrepiterJohnL's previous comment on my desktop, but with both my comment and DJL's comment (as a block within a block) on my 'phone.

    Curiouser and curiouser...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2022
    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2022
    With regards to reading into local by-elections, people vote for local issues.

    If the few remaining hard Right posters on here wish to extrapolate to national sentiments, including the assertion that 'there's not much enthusiasm for Labour' then they have disappeared down a similar rabbit hole to the Corbynistas and it's not a pretty place to be. I've seen the hard Left claim that the polls are wrong and that Starmer is an evil dictator who will lose blah blah.

    We had all this before 1997 too.

    There's not much enthusiasm for anyone at the moment because we're in a bloody mess. Nationally. Internationally.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,709
    The chancellor flying home early looks like the beginning of the end. But for exactly what and for whom it’s hard to be sure. Normally I don’t think a chancellor would survive this.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,482
    MI5 and MI6 'knew Canadian spy smuggled Isis bride Shamima Begum and her friends into Syria within DAYS' as calls grow for an inquiry into the 'cover-up'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11314115/MI5-MI6-knew-Canadian-spy-smuggled-Shamima-Begum-friends-Syria-DAYS.html
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Jonathan said:

    The chancellor flying home early looks like the beginning of the end. But for exactly what and for whom it’s hard to be sure. Normally I don’t think a chancellor would survive this.

    It looks like Truss is about to perform a U-turn on the Corporation tax cut and other aspects of the disastrous fiscal statement. All behind Kwarting's back.

    So I suspect he's rushing back because she's about to undermine him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    FrequentLurker said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrequentLurker said:

    Can plotting Tory MPs get a VoNC though? Under the rules, isn't Truss safe for a year having just been elected?

    I appreciate rules can be changed but if they need to be, that's another hurdle for the plotters, which can only reduce their chances of success.

    It was reported that Theresa May resigned when the 1922 Committee threatened to change the rules to allow an early challenge.
    Can't see Truss doing that, just six weeks in...
    It depends on whether the rumours about her and humiliation have anything to them, perhaps?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    FPT:
    MoonRabbit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory gain from Labour in Leicester apparantly

    As predicted by Foxy - a Hindu nationalist standing in a majority Muslim ward.
    In a way a bit sad, it’s been delivered by something that makes it not worth crowing about - community divisions growing 🙁

    In my opinion it’s social media to blame, mouthy Alex Jones wannabe’s so detached from the issues in the wards changing hands and the streets violence breaking out on.
    North Evington is a bit more complicated, and positive than that:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    In absolute terms, changes from 2021
    GREEN +1549
    LD -140
    TORY +876
    LAB -1743
    TUSC -77

    A clear rejection of the Labour candidate for her enthusiasm for Modi and Hinduvta politics with some of the vote going Green. The winning Tory is also Hindu, Sanjay Modhwadia who is local businessman in the rag trade.

    So not sectarianism, but rather a rejection of a Labour candidate who supports it. Incidentally she was a protégé of Keith Vaz who also supports Modi, despite being Catholic.

    The implications for the seat, currently held by Webbe sitting as an independent, are unclear, but Labour need to pick their candidate carefully.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072
    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Possibly the most disgusting thing this week ?
    (Check the ingredients.)

    "Butter flavored butter

    Contains no butter"
    https://twitter.com/CaloriesProper/status/1580779178428755968
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,538
    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    From the Deck of the Queen Mary 2 as it sails up Southampton Water, probably pretty good!

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    With respect to colleagues fixating on local results, this really is the last throw of the desperados.

    I had all this with the Corbyn mob.

    Reality is that the tories are in for a shellacking at the next General Election. The question for them is how they minimise their losses in order to have a parliamentary base on which to rebuild. 10 MPs, 100 MPs or 200 MPs. There's a big difference and a lot of jobs on the line.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    MoonRabbit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory gain from Labour in Leicester apparantly

    As predicted by Foxy - a Hindu nationalist standing in a majority Muslim ward.
    In a way a bit sad, it’s been delivered by something that makes it not worth crowing about - community divisions growing 🙁

    In my opinion it’s social media to blame, mouthy Alex Jones wannabe’s so detached from the issues in the wards changing hands and the streets violence breaking out on.
    North Evington is a bit more complicated, and positive than that:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    In absolute terms, changes from 2021
    GREEN +1549
    LD -140
    TORY +876
    LAB -1743
    TUSC -77

    A clear rejection of the Labour candidate for her enthusiasm for Modi and Hinduvta politics with some of the vote going Green. The winning Tory is also Hindu, Sanjay Modhwadia who is local businessman in the rag trade.

    So not sectarianism, but rather a rejection of a Labour candidate who supports it. Incidentally she was a protégé of Keith Vaz who also supports Modi, despite being Catholic.

    The implications for the seat, currently held by Webbe sitting as an independent, are unclear, but Labour need to pick their candidate carefully.
    Thank you. I liked your post from the early moment I reached the word “positive”. The best thing about posting to PB is being so knowledgeably corrected.

    So I’ll have another go - PM Modi took one hell of a beating. It’s a congress stronghold?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Nigelb said:

    Possibly the most disgusting thing this week ?
    (Check the ingredients.)

    "Butter flavored butter

    Contains no butter"
    https://twitter.com/CaloriesProper/status/1580779178428755968

    That guys twitter feed examples of American dining is jawdropping!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Taz said:

    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.

    I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.

    It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited October 2022
    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The chancellor flying home early looks like the beginning of the end. But for exactly what and for whom it’s hard to be sure. Normally I don’t think a chancellor would survive this.

    It looks like Truss is about to perform a U-turn on the Corporation tax cut and other aspects of the disastrous fiscal statement. All behind Kwarting's back.

    So I suspect he's rushing back because she's about to undermine him.
    So the media are saying, so you are parroting.

    He could be rushing back for other reasons, such as closer to the action as the bank turns off a key response to market pressure.

    It might not be a rush back job at all, main business may be done, the extra day might have been a bit expendable.

    The lesson here, we need to try to avoid getting suckered by media “spin” and keep more of an open mind as to the facts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Possibly the most disgusting thing this week ?
    (Check the ingredients.)

    "Butter flavored butter

    Contains no butter"
    https://twitter.com/CaloriesProper/status/1580779178428755968

    That guys twitter feed examples of American dining is jawdropping!
    Quite tempted to try “deep fried butter”.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    MoonRabbit said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    MoonRabbit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory gain from Labour in Leicester apparantly

    As predicted by Foxy - a Hindu nationalist standing in a majority Muslim ward.
    In a way a bit sad, it’s been delivered by something that makes it not worth crowing about - community divisions growing 🙁

    In my opinion it’s social media to blame, mouthy Alex Jones wannabe’s so detached from the issues in the wards changing hands and the streets violence breaking out on.
    North Evington is a bit more complicated, and positive than that:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    In absolute terms, changes from 2021
    GREEN +1549
    LD -140
    TORY +876
    LAB -1743
    TUSC -77

    A clear rejection of the Labour candidate for her enthusiasm for Modi and Hinduvta politics with some of the vote going Green. The winning Tory is also Hindu, Sanjay Modhwadia who is local businessman in the rag trade.

    So not sectarianism, but rather a rejection of a Labour candidate who supports it. Incidentally she was a protégé of Keith Vaz who also supports Modi, despite being Catholic.

    The implications for the seat, currently held by Webbe sitting as an independent, are unclear, but Labour need to pick their candidate carefully.
    Thank you. I liked your post from the early moment I reached the word “positive”. The best thing about posting to PB is being so knowledgeably corrected.

    So I’ll have another go - PM Modi took one hell of a beating. It’s a congress stronghold?
    It used to be a Labour stronghold, and Vaz ran the machine there. I think Webbe would get a tiny vote if she stood again, but Labour do need to choose a candidate carefully. There was a lot of resentment in the local party at Webbe being parachuted in under Corbyn.

    Hard to see as a Tory GE gain even with a good candidate in current circumstances, but they too need to be careful in choosing a candidate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2022
    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019.
    The difference though is in 2019 those polls showed a heavy Brexit Party vote, recoverable for the Tories with a different leader.

    That isn't the case with current polling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MoonRabbit said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The chancellor flying home early looks like the beginning of the end. But for exactly what and for whom it’s hard to be sure. Normally I don’t think a chancellor would survive this.

    It looks like Truss is about to perform a U-turn on the Corporation tax cut and other aspects of the disastrous fiscal statement. All behind Kwarting's back.

    So I suspect he's rushing back because she's about to undermine him.
    So the media are saying, so you are parroting.

    He could be rushing back for other reasons, such as closer to the action as the bank turns off a key response to market pressure.

    It might not be a rush back job at all, main business may be done, the extra day might have been a bit expendable.

    The lesson here, we need to try to avoid getting suckered by media “spin” and keep more of an open mind as to the facts.
    I think he also failed to show up for a meeting of G20 finance ministers yesterday.

    Media spin is a fact of life, but the circumstantial evidence here is pretty convincing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072
    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.

    I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.

    It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
    You strike me as the sort of person who would spend their time finding 10,000 tweets saying something 😂😂😂😂

    Waiting for your next flounce and rant about white men.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    This feels a lot like government by sixth form college politics students.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Paddy's have a market on whether Truss will face a VONC before the next election. Yes 4/7. No 11/10. I've backed No as I don't think it will get as far as that and she'll go if it was even threatened.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    In defence of Heathener, who maybe not caught up with the previous thread from last night yet which had some great research into this - There was one post, I think from pro rota that was particurly excellent.

    Also those 2019 polls, from the dying days of May, I think actually in May, Tories in the teens but UKIP way above them with a kinda interchangeable vote, do they really read across to both now and any pre 2010 politics in a helpful way?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    IanB2 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
    Good trip? I have long fancied that Transatlantic crossing. Any tips?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    Morning TSE

    Do you not have a bet with someone that the Tories will touch 15% at some time whilst Truss is PM?

    I think you'll collect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.

    I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.

    It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
    With respect I think you are missing the point.

    There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.

    But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.

    This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    In the 2019 European elections, the Tories got 8.8%. In an actual election.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    darkage said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The chancellor flying home early looks like the beginning of the end. But for exactly what and for whom it’s hard to be sure. Normally I don’t think a chancellor would survive this.

    It looks like Truss is about to perform a U-turn on the Corporation tax cut and other aspects of the disastrous fiscal statement. All behind Kwarting's back.

    So I suspect he's rushing back because she's about to undermine him.
    So the media are saying, so you are parroting.

    He could be rushing back for other reasons, such as closer to the action as the bank turns off a key response to market pressure.

    It might not be a rush back job at all, main business may be done, the extra day might have been a bit expendable.

    The lesson here, we need to try to avoid getting suckered by media “spin” and keep more of an open mind as to the facts.
    I think he also failed to show up for a meeting of G20 finance ministers yesterday.

    Media spin is a fact of life, but the circumstantial evidence here is pretty convincing.
    “The circumstantial evidence here is pretty convincing.”

    Not that conferences and seminars have expendable segments to miss to catch up on inbox? Or even in a much more valuable ad hoc meeting that came about?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    Pretty much every country has some form of investor visa, which is buying residence by another name.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    edited October 2022
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    I have a feeling that the breadth and depth of Johnson's Russian links prior to the war is one of those things that will emerge from history, or journalism, in years to come...

    Flying to Italy off-grid, dumping your security detail and meeting a Russian oligarch isn't normal behaviour for a British PM (although it's equally possible he just went for the bunga-bunga)

    Maybe the whole partygate saga emerging long after the event was our security services getting him gone?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    Morning TSE

    Do you not have a bet with someone that the Tories will touch 15% at some time whilst Truss is PM?

    I think you'll collect.
    I do and I do.

    I also have a bet with a PBer that nets me £500 if Truss is ousted before conference 2023.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    IanB2 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    I have a feeling that the breadth and depth of Johnson's Russian links prior to the war is one of those things that will emerge from history, or journalism, in years to come...

    Maybe the whole partygate saga emerging long after the event was our security services getting him gone?
    We do have a rather long and tawdry record of turning a blind eye to rich individuals moving here from oppressive kleptocracies provided they bring sacks of gold with them. It would make a Swiss banker blush.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,480
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    Of course they were.

    That’s the whole point behind these investor visas globally
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,981
    edited October 2022
    Not much connection between the national polls and the local election results.

    Changes in Labour share:

    Leicester -26.7%
    Gloucester -2.7%
    Stockport -18.8%
    Hartlepool +0.1%
    Epping Forest: no candidate despite polling 20% previously

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16609/local-council-elections-13th-october
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,480
    Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    FraserNelson

    What was intended as the arrival of the low-tax cavalry now looks like the charge of the economic light brigade.

    My column on the Truss project’s fight for survival
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/shattered-tories-may-yet-face-fate-even-worse-political-death/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    MoonRabbit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory gain from Labour in Leicester apparantly

    As predicted by Foxy - a Hindu nationalist standing in a majority Muslim ward.
    In a way a bit sad, it’s been delivered by something that makes it not worth crowing about - community divisions growing 🙁

    In my opinion it’s social media to blame, mouthy Alex Jones wannabe’s so detached from the issues in the wards changing hands and the streets violence breaking out on.
    North Evington is a bit more complicated, and positive than that:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    In absolute terms, changes from 2021
    GREEN +1549
    LD -140
    TORY +876
    LAB -1743
    TUSC -77

    A clear rejection of the Labour candidate for her enthusiasm for Modi and Hinduvta politics with some of the vote going Green. The winning Tory is also Hindu, Sanjay Modhwadia who is local businessman in the rag trade.

    So not sectarianism, but rather a rejection of a Labour candidate who supports it. Incidentally she was a protégé of Keith Vaz who also supports Modi, despite being Catholic.

    The implications for the seat, currently held by Webbe sitting as an independent, are unclear, but Labour need to pick their candidate carefully.
    Excellent result in Waltham Abbey too. I did a little bit there and a great local candidate gained the seat from the Green who hadn't turned up to enough meetings against the national trend
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...

    NEW YouGov/Times: Almost half of Conservative supporters believe the party chose the wrong leader this summer.

    No political group, age group, area of the country, gender or other demographic said that Liz Truss had been the right choice as prime minister

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/29b24286-4b21-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=9d14c6cc524a86833a8b7c51b969a51a
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    Morning TSE

    Do you not have a bet with someone that the Tories will touch 15% at some time whilst Truss is PM?

    I think you'll collect.
    I do and I do.

    I also have a bet with a PBer that nets me £500 if Truss is ousted before conference 2023.
    Wow. I reckon you'll have the monkey by Christmas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    International trade minister Greg Hands on Kwasi Kwarteng's dash home from Washington: "He's coming back for discussions with colleagues. It's not unusual to come back a day early."

    Hahahahahahaha

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580802774832250882
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
    Good trip? I have long fancied that Transatlantic crossing. Any tips?
    Definitely one for the bucket list; it is surely the world's greatest ship and hopefully has another ten years of life in it. Either book early for maximum choice or wait and snap up a last minute bargain.

    Westbound is most popular because of the dramatic morning sailing into New York harbour, although westbound is an always-windy crossing into the prevailing wind, whereas coming eastbound you get calm days when there's next to no wind and sitting on deck is a joy.

    Paying extra for a balcony is probably a waste of money as you won't use it much and there is no shortage of good spots to sit out around the ship.

    The winter crossings are popular with those seeking the experience of really rough seas, and many are disappointed if they don't get them. On summer the mid Atlantic can be surprisingly calm and it's just the sheer size and absence of anything to see other than the odd whale and dolphins that makes the biggest impression.

    Those in eras past who made the journey over months in small wooden boats and ships were brave fellows indeed.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Hands: "The prime minister and chancellor are absolutely determined to stick to their plans."

    Another one to bookmark.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580803274466549761
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Casino_Royale said:

    Mordaunt-Sunak is logical.

    They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.

    It will have to do.

    Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    darkage said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    This feels a lot like government by sixth form college politics students.
    This feels a lot like no government at all.

    It looks as much like a runner as a Haynes manual and a hundred oily engine parts on the kitchen table.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_xP said:

    Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...

    NEW YouGov/Times: Almost half of Conservative supporters believe the party chose the wrong leader this summer.

    No political group, age group, area of the country, gender or other demographic said that Liz Truss had been the right choice as prime minister

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/29b24286-4b21-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=9d14c6cc524a86833a8b7c51b969a51a

    Big difference between supporters and members?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    StillWaters said:

    Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look

    He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.

    Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.

    This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.

    Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
    Good trip? I have long fancied that Transatlantic crossing. Any tips?
    Definitely one for the bucket list; it is surely the world's greatest ship and hopefully has another ten years of life in it. Either book early for maximum choice or wait and snap up a last minute bargain.

    Westbound is most popular because of the dramatic morning sailing into New York harbour, although westbound is an always-windy crossing into the prevailing wind, whereas coming eastbound you get calm days when there's next to no wind and sitting on deck is a joy.

    Paying extra for a balcony is probably a waste of money as you won't use it much and there is no shortage of good spots to sit out around the ship.

    The winter crossings are popular with those seeking the experience of really rough seas, and many are disappointed if they don't get them. On summer the mid Atlantic can be surprisingly calm and it's just the sheer size and absence of anything to see other than the odd whale and dolphins that makes the biggest impression.

    Those in eras past who made the journey over months in small wooden boats and ships were brave fellows indeed.....
    I was thinking an inside cabin, as would be on deck anyway most of the time, and save the money for what matters.

    Any recommendations on the dining options?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    In the 2019 European elections, the Tories got 8.8%. In an actual election.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
    A similar (or worse) voter strike would hit Truss if we still had EU elections...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
    Good trip? I have long fancied that Transatlantic crossing. Any tips?
    Definitely one for the bucket list; it is surely the world's greatest ship and hopefully has another ten years of life in it. Either book early for maximum choice or wait and snap up a last minute bargain.

    Westbound is most popular because of the dramatic morning sailing into New York harbour, although westbound is an always-windy crossing into the prevailing wind, whereas coming eastbound you get calm days when there's next to no wind and sitting on deck is a joy.

    Paying extra for a balcony is probably a waste of money as you won't use it much and there is no shortage of good spots to sit out around the ship.

    The winter crossings are popular with those seeking the experience of really rough seas, and many are disappointed if they don't get them. On summer the mid Atlantic can be surprisingly calm and it's just the sheer size and absence of anything to see other than the odd whale and dolphins that makes the biggest impression.

    Those in eras past who made the journey over months in small wooden boats and ships were brave fellows indeed.....
    Sounds like a fun trip! I was on the QE2, now a floating hotel in the sandpit, a few weeks ago. Gave us the idea of doing a transatlantic crossing as a one-off. Sadly, can’t do the return by Concorde any more though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    paulyork64 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mordaunt-Sunak is logical.

    They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.

    It will have to do.

    Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
    They will never admit an error.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    If there are more changes to the mini-budget, is Kwasi Kwarteng's position still tenable?

    Greg Hands - "totally… the PM has total confidence in Kwasi Kwarteng".

    Will Truss & Kwarteng be in post in a month?

    Greg Hands - "yes absolutely".

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580806165411135488
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    Morning TSE

    Do you not have a bet with someone that the Tories will touch 15% at some time whilst Truss is PM?

    I think you'll collect.
    I do and I do.

    I also have a bet with a PBer that nets me £500 if Truss is ousted before conference 2023.
    Wow. I reckon you'll have the monkey by Christmas.
    Hope so.

    Truss has surprised even me on the downside.
    Does she have the staying power of Dynamo, now back in his/her third incarnation and still spouting nonsense?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Sandpit said:

    StillWaters said:

    Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look

    He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.

    Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.

    This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.

    Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
    It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:

    https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/10/13/519719/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    IanB2 said:

    The beauty of Southampton at dawn...

    That very much depends on where you are, and which direction you are looking... ;)
    Tbf I am at the docks looking NE.

    We had the drama of a helicopter pickup for a.passenger airlifted to Truro hospital last night; the ship didn't even slow down for the first two attempts and then grudgingly slowed to half speed to get the passenger away; the cruise line must be really keen not to waste fuel...
    Good trip? I have long fancied that Transatlantic crossing. Any tips?
    Definitely one for the bucket list; it is surely the world's greatest ship and hopefully has another ten years of life in it. Either book early for maximum choice or wait and snap up a last minute bargain.

    Westbound is most popular because of the dramatic morning sailing into New York harbour, although westbound is an always-windy crossing into the prevailing wind, whereas coming eastbound you get calm days when there's next to no wind and sitting on deck is a joy.

    Paying extra for a balcony is probably a waste of money as you won't use it much and there is no shortage of good spots to sit out around the ship.

    The winter crossings are popular with those seeking the experience of really rough seas, and many are disappointed if they don't get them. On summer the mid Atlantic can be surprisingly calm and it's just the sheer size and absence of anything to see other than the odd whale and dolphins that makes the biggest impression.

    Those in eras past who made the journey over months in small wooden boats and ships were brave fellows indeed.....
    Sounds like a fun trip! I was on the QE2, now a floating hotel in the sandpit, a few weeks ago. Gave us the idea of doing a transatlantic crossing as a one-off. Sadly, can’t do the return by Concorde any more though.
    I was thinking of flying to Vancouver, doing the Trans-Canadian, then QM2 back to Southampton.

    The Trans-Siberian is off for a while.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,994
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...

    NEW YouGov/Times: Almost half of Conservative supporters believe the party chose the wrong leader this summer.

    No political group, age group, area of the country, gender or other demographic said that Liz Truss had been the right choice as prime minister

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/29b24286-4b21-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=9d14c6cc524a86833a8b7c51b969a51a

    Nothing like being wise after the event.

    Brexit suffering the same fate
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    In two decades of reporting on and from IMF trips, I can't remember another one where the Chancellor cut it short this early, and in anything like these kinds of circumstances. Happy to be corrected if anyone can think of another precedent.
    But this does NOT look normal.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1580806935602876416
    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580805337464320002
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    The other thing to consider is this:

    The Daily Mail has been 100% focused on securing Dacre his seat in the Lords. The epic front page lies, the 10 front pages of curry nonsense, the fawning, the stupidity.

    Dacre has been told "we don't let your type in here". Yet various dodgy people have literally bought a seat in the Lords in recent years. So expect the scolded woman to go on an epic trip of revenge. I remember John Major-era Mail front pages absolutely eviscerating Major and his cabinet. Expect the same now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Conservative peer Lord Ed Vaizey says Greg Hands is not right to say it's "not unusual" for trips like this to be cut short.

    He adds it "doesn't fill one with confidence" & it now looks inevitable that more U-turns are on the way.

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580805337464320002
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    edited October 2022
    Sandpit said:

    StillWaters said:

    Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look

    He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.

    Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.

    This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.

    Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
    A leftwing pacifist shouted down AOC accusing her of pushing the US towards nuclear war with Russia with Biden.

    There is also a difference even here between support for weapons and supplies to Ukraine and opposing escalation further than that
    https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1580558090293809155?s=20&t=VfmELVM7TbDSYraTCPiFAg
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Kwasi Kwarteng accused of ‘Corbynism by another name’ as he flies home early from Washington for crisis talks with Liz Truss after his mini budget sparked economic mayhem
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/kwasi-kwarteng-corbynism-jeremy-corbyn-liz-truss-crisis-talks-washington-b1032617.html https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1580808240232701953/photo/1
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...

    NEW YouGov/Times: Almost half of Conservative supporters believe the party chose the wrong leader this summer.

    No political group, age group, area of the country, gender or other demographic said that Liz Truss had been the right choice as prime minister

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/29b24286-4b21-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=9d14c6cc524a86833a8b7c51b969a51a

    Nothing like being wise after the event.

    Brexit suffering the same fate
    That is supporters, not members, Rogerdamus.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,072
    Scott_xP said:

    If there are more changes to the mini-budget, is Kwasi Kwarteng's position still tenable?

    Greg Hands - "totally… the PM has total confidence in Kwasi Kwarteng".

    Will Truss & Kwarteng be in post in a month?

    Greg Hands - "yes absolutely".

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580806165411135488

    Well what do you expect him to say ?

    Of course their position is untenable, it is obvious, he would probably say that as a backbencher but not as a member of govt
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Roger said:

    Nothing like being wise after the event.

    Brexit suffering the same fate

    Trussonomics is the spliff that Brexit smoked after a long session in the pub.

    Tories now having a market whitey, kneeling in front of the toilet, room spinning.

    Bank of England standing awkwardly by, offering to make sugary tea.

    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1580670041154285568
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Labour's Ed Miliband says this is a "govt in meltdown and an economic policy in tatters".

    He says the Conservative party should be "hanging its head in shame" for putting the British people through this.

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580809388062711808
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,981
    "The anti-growthers will turn us into East Germany
    If Liz Truss fails, we will have lost our last chance to escape a future of rising poverty and compulsion
    David Frost" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/anti-growthers-will-turn-us-east-germany/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Taz said:

    Well what do you expect him to say ?

    Why say it at all?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    on @BBCBreakfast Mel Stride - chair of the Treasury select committee - says any u-turns on tax cuts need to come sooner rather than later and not wait for the Chancellor's statement on October 31st. There needs to be a 'fundamental reset' but doesnt call on Kwasi Kwarteng to go
    https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1580809889151975426
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Andy_JS said:

    "The anti-growthers will turn us into East Germany
    If Liz Truss fails, we will have lost our last chance to escape a future of rising poverty and compulsion
    David Frost" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/anti-growthers-will-turn-us-east-germany/

    Utter nonsense, quelle surprise coming from Frosty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    “The reaction of voters, opinion of MPs, in matters like this the reaction of financial markets, you don’t have to please all of those people all of the time, but you can’t have all three of those against you," former Tory leader Lord Hague
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/kwasi-kwarteng-corbynism-jeremy-corbyn-liz-truss-crisis-talks-washington-b1032617.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Andy_JS said:

    "The anti-growthers will turn us into East Germany
    If Liz Truss fails, we will have lost our last chance to escape a future of rising poverty and compulsion
    David Frost" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/anti-growthers-will-turn-us-east-germany/

    He really has lost his tenuous grip on reality.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    StillWaters said:

    Elon - why? I know you need money but this really isn’t a good look

    He’s making a right idiot of himself here, and I say that as someone who quite likes what he’s doing with SpaceX.

    Sadly, appeasement towards Russia is now quite mainstream thinking in the US, across the whole political spectrum. There’s an awful lot of people suggesting that Ukraine should sue for peace, or that it’s no longer in the US interest to keep supporting Ukraine now Putin is threatening nuclear escalation.

    This is, of course, exactly what Putin wants. Thankfully, most Western leaders remain behind arming Ukraine.

    Thankfully another quiet night there last night, with only a handful of missiles launched, more than half of which were shot down. Steady advances by the defenders in Kherson region too, they’re now only about 5km from the airport in the West of the city, and have retaken more than half the occupied lands in the North of the region, in the past couple of weeks.
    It does sound a bit 1917 out there. This story is going around:

    https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/10/13/519719/
    That doesn’t sound good, if there’s any truth to it. Also reports that Russian civilians in Kherson are being told to leave - how exactly they’re supposed to leave, is a different question. The bridges are all full of holes, and even the supply barge across the river was sunk last week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,143
    Morning all,

    Truss has plunged to 3.75 to go by Xmas on BF overnight.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Andy_JS said:

    David Frost" (£)

    I wouldn’t pay p for David Frost, let alone £.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,333
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The anti-growthers will turn us into East Germany
    If Liz Truss fails, we will have lost our last chance to escape a future of rising poverty and compulsion
    David Frost" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/anti-growthers-will-turn-us-east-germany/

    He really has lost his tenuous grip on reality.

    He never had one.
    Anyway, as I noted yesterday, East Germany is richer than large swathes of the UK these days anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why MPs should not fear the members if they ditch the hapless Truss...

    NEW YouGov/Times: Almost half of Conservative supporters believe the party chose the wrong leader this summer.

    No political group, age group, area of the country, gender or other demographic said that Liz Truss had been the right choice as prime minister

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/29b24286-4b21-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=9d14c6cc524a86833a8b7c51b969a51a

    Nothing like being wise after the event.

    Brexit suffering the same fate
    What’s irritating is that it should have been obvious even to this lot *before* the event.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Scott_xP said:

    Hands: "The prime minister and chancellor are absolutely determined to stick to their plans."

    Another one to bookmark.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580803274466549761

    They may be, but the PMs plan is to sack the Chancellor and u-turn on his plans, and the Chancellor has said he won't have completed his plan until the end of the month, by which time no-one will care what it is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    The Conservatives have just polled below 20% in a national opinion poll for the first time in three decades.

    People Polling's poll details are still tbc but sampling took place on Wednesday. I believe that the 19% is the lowest Conservative share of the vote since 9th January 1995. 19%! Truly remarkable.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    They will lose the next General Election heavily. The question now is how they limit their losses. The newspapers are reporting a Sunak-Mordaunt replacement which may stem some of the flow.

    Why do you post fake news?

    The Tories polled below 20% in various polls in 2019 with a low of 17%.
    Morning TSE

    Do you not have a bet with someone that the Tories will touch 15% at some time whilst Truss is PM?

    I think you'll collect.
    I do and I do.

    I also have a bet with a PBer that nets me £500 if Truss is ousted before conference 2023.
    Wow. I reckon you'll have the monkey by Christmas.
    I think he'd prefer cash.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    Scott_xP said:

    Hands: "The prime minister and chancellor are absolutely determined to stick to their plans."

    Another one to bookmark.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580803274466549761

    "You need Hands to show that you're sincere."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    paulyork64 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mordaunt-Sunak is logical.

    They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.

    It will have to do.

    Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
    It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.

    Anyway, needs must.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,560
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.

    I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.

    It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
    With respect I think you are missing the point.

    There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.

    But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.

    This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
    I’m not certain saying there’s “no great enthusiasm” and getting >50% in some polls are entirely consistent.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rottenborough said:

    Morning all,

    Truss has plunged to 3.75 to go by Xmas on BF overnight.

    That was clearly my cheeky tenner.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    bondegezou said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Polling dire for the Tories yet last nights local by elections, like last weeks, simply don’t reflect that. They even gained seats.

    I could literally find you 10,000 tweets from Corbyn supporters over the past few years verbatim bar the word 'Tories' for 'Labour'.

    It's a rabbit hole but live down there if you wish to.
    With respect I think you are missing the point.

    There is no question that, currently at least, the Tories are hovering somewhere between hated, despised and pitied, and voters are itching to see the back of them.

    But it is also true that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour and, so far at least, not even a hint of the 'new dawn, things can only get better' excitement that built in the run-up to 1997.

    This isn't good news for the Tories but it may well be for the other opposition parties looking to take seats off them.
    I’m not certain saying there’s “no great enthusiasm” and getting >50% in some polls are entirely consistent.
    I think they are consistent. I remember the New Labour vibe from the mid nineties, and Starmer does still lack that, so his poll lead could prove quite ephemeral. With the right leader, such as Mordaunt, Con could be back on 30%.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,355
    Heathener said:

    With respect to colleagues fixating on local results, this really is the last throw of the desperados.

    I had all this with the Corbyn mob.

    Reality is that the tories are in for a shellacking at the next General Election. The question for them is how they minimise their losses in order to have a parliamentary base on which to rebuild. 10 MPs, 100 MPs or 200 MPs. There's a big difference and a lot of jobs on the line.

    The truth is that local elections, particularly where they are well out of whack with with national polling, can be a bellwether that things are not quite as they seem. Along with leader ratings, they were a clear warning sign that Miliband might not win.

    May rounds are particularly useful, but looking shorter term the aggregate of local by elections are a reasonable rune to look at as one bit of evidence. But perhaps not to fixate on one result in Leicester.

    And the current deduction from the locals is probably this: that the basis for some manner of Tory revival is still there if they get there act together, perhaps not enough to prevent SKS
    PM, but maybe enough to prevent a majority.

    But, it is not a forward looking measure or one to be taken in isolation. If you think this winter will kill stone dead that chance of revival,, look at those LEs in the spring.

    A sort of rolling 50/100 local NEV itracker would be highly useful.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    MarqueeMark said:

    darkage said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Did anyone spot this: Braverman admits the government were "selling" golden visas to Russian oligarchs

    https://twitter.com/shalchi_a/status/1580557547983220736

    This feels a lot like government by sixth form college politics students.
    This feels a lot like no government at all.

    It looks as much like a runner as a Haynes manual and a hundred oily engine parts on the kitchen table.
    I don't think even DuraAce could part out this pile of garbage.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Having last night backed Truss out in 2022 at 6.4 I am already green on cash out (it's now 3.7) and am wondering whether to take the money.

    These things take longer than anyone expects and we only really have weeks of 2022 left.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The anti-growthers will turn us into East Germany
    If Liz Truss fails, we will have lost our last chance to escape a future of rising poverty and compulsion
    David Frost" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/anti-growthers-will-turn-us-east-germany/

    He really has lost his tenuous grip on reality.

    He’s just embarrassed that his judgement has been shot to pieces. The ego cannot cope
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,791
    Casino_Royale said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mordaunt-Sunak is logical.

    They were strong runners up amongst MPs/members and Mordaunt can do empathy and public speaking (if she's otherwise an empty vessel) and Sunak knows his numbers.

    It will have to do.

    Was it the Daily Mail that did a hatchet job on Mordaunt during the leadership campaign? Surely they must see now she'd have done a better job than Truss.
    It was her Wokery, and lying about it, that sunk her.

    Anyway, needs must.
    You're almost permanently pissed off now. Imagine what a PM in rainbow shoulder boards is going to do to you.


This discussion has been closed.