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At evens LAB looks value for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com
At evens LAB looks value for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com
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At evens LAB looks value for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com
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Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.
Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).
Sunak = Dieppe Raid.
Truss = The Fall of Singapore.
62 bloody notifications. Hasn't anyone heard of snipping........
The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.
It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".
She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/
Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.
He's going to be REALLY pissed when the second part of it arrives... That would make him - and Russian defences - look really silly.
Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.
Also, I made an error with my football results, erroneously including an older winning tip. I'll amend the numbers a little later, once I've done something productive, but it's still green. Return falls from around 66% to 55%.
And Boris Redux? My estimation would be a Tory defeat with a Labour majority of around 40-50. Boris still reaches red wall parts no other tory can. But it wouldn't be sufficient. And he'd lose others.
But yes, we should get them more.
Too many are saying 'she should at least be given a chance', as though she might turn things around.
The longer she hangs on, the more difficult it will be to find the moment. And the more contaminated the rest of the party.
Around the same time I said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine
And that's as much on the war talk that I can stomach, so I shall leave the boys to their toys.
But I think there's enough bragging rights for 2 here.
Handed out like confectionary.
The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.
Even if it is clearly bollocks, it is much easier for Russia to blame a crazed suicide bomber than admit their much-vaunted defences were breached by people laying charges at several points. The only thing that makes me go "hmmmm....." is why only one of the two carriageways collapsed. Were they disturbed before they could finish setting the charges? Did charges on the other side not detonate (Although with that massive a blast next door, you'd think they would have gone up too - like a Russian shell store). Or was it maybe sending a message - get out of the one lane left, or we'll take that down too - and trap your 25,000++ troops with no off-ramp...? Your call, Putin.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1579361483120857088
In Kyiv, reportedly a pedestrian bridge, and a kids' playground. Fortunately empty at the time.
I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.
Increasingly I feel the same today.
Metaphorically.
Unfortunately she never had the first clue about what a solution might look like.
Looking at the video, the truck is in the wrong place to have been the source of the explosion, which was most likely from underneath, either a drone boat or charges placed under the road by hand.
I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.
Edit - or do you think that's what she said?
We're at the lob-missiles-into-a-city phase.
NEW
Bank of England temporarily expands post mini budget gilt funding scheme in final week “to support an orderly end of its purchase scheme” meant to help avoid funding problems in LDI funds
Buy scheme will end this week.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/october/bank-of-england-announces-additional-measures-to-support-market-functioning
If Germany had won the race to build the Bomb it would certainly have tried to use it, but its circumstances were very different. None of Russia's internationally recognized territory is disputed or under threat of invasion, only the regions that it's nicked off Ukraine, and Putin knows it.
There were air raid sirens all across Western Ukraine last night, for the first time in months, but no attacks.
Yippee Ki-Yay, Mutha Fucka.
There would be a certain irony if the government pension mistakes ended up wrecking the entire Russell Group while leaving post 92 unis (mostly in the TPS) untouched!
You should suggest this to Central Office.
Although I wonder if a more likely scenario is that the older universities will be stripped of their endowments to meet the gap.
Not that that would be popular with Oxbridge!
Please tell me though that you haven't let your researchers know the outcome you are expecting.
Liz Truss ain't exactly my type either...
*Hard to know if the spate of fires across Russia are Ukrainian SF or some nascent domestic partisan effort. Orr just what you'd expect over months across a vast country with very poor health and safety standards.
- employee payrises
- portfolio returns
- longevity of employees
It is worth remembering that if someone leaves at age 35 on £35k a year, accruing 15 years of benefits, that is massively better than if they leave at 50 on £60k a year, having accrued 30 years of benefits.
The worst of your liabilities come from the 20% of employees who spend a lot of time with you.
The known unknown after that will be by-elections caused by Boris's peerages. The Prime Minister could delay or cancel these but that will just mean more disgruntled backbenchers.
So far my overall approach of blind luck and not really being into football is generally working well
In the same way, you, your family and your friends are not the bunch of incompetent ideological fools, that are currently running the British government.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1579372969650159616
Edit - he obviously didn't become VC aged 15.