At evens LAB looks value for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com

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At evens LAB looks value for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com

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TheScreamingEagles

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

TheScreamingEagles

My word, two consecutive firsts.

Scott_xP

TheScreamingEagles said:

My word, two consecutive firsts.

As convincing as an East German record...

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

My word, two consecutive firsts.

Is that particularly unusual at Cambridge?

Sandpit

NOM the value at 2/1.

TheValiant

62 notifications!

62 bloody notifications. Hasn't anyone heard of snipping........

RochdalePioneers

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

Sandpit

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

DecrepiterJohnL

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

moonshine

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

It’s Ukrainian rope a dope in action again. It’s terrible for the poor bastards on the receiving end of those missiles. But militarily, oh my what a waste of what’s now a very precious resource for Russia.

MarqueeMark

Putin didn't like his birthday present then.

He's going to be REALLY pissed when the second part of it arrives... That would make him - and Russian defences - look really silly.

AlistairM

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

FeersumEnjineeya

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

A truck bomb looks very unlikely. There isn't the debris that you'd expect from an explosion on the surface and it just looks too neat. To me it looks almost like a planned demolition, probably brought about by an explosion below the bridge and, as you say, most likely by Ukrainian or possibly other special forces.

RochdalePioneers

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

At least the bridge attack gives them cover for killing civilians. They are not killing civilians, they are targeting "terrorists". That they are reportedly staying in these apartment blocks is the fault of the Ukrainians. Or something.

MarqueeMark

You have to ask though - where the hell are these promised anti-missile batteries? Kyiv, Odessa, Cherniv, Kharkiv, Lviv - they at a minimum should all have them. Stopping Russian terror attacks with missiles can hardly be described as giving Ukraine an offensive capability.

AlistairM

Also just a point about nuclear strikes. The bridge attack would have been a perfect excuse for Putin to use them. He hasn't done so. He has launched conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities. He is constrained by some influences currently.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Also, I made an error with my football results, erroneously including an older winning tip. I'll amend the numbers a little later, once I've done something productive, but it's still green. Return falls from around 66% to 55%.

Heathener

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Yep pretty much agree with that. Sunak probably = halfway between 2005 and 2001

And Boris Redux? My estimation would be a Tory defeat with a Labour majority of around 40-50. Boris still reaches red wall parts no other tory can. But it wouldn't be sufficient. And he'd lose others.

JosiasJessop

MarqueeMark said:

You have to ask though - where the hell are these promised anti-missile batteries? Kyiv, Odessa, Cherniv, Kharkiv, Lviv - they at a minimum should all have them. Stopping Russian terror attacks with missiles can hardly be described as giving Ukraine an offensive capability.

They have some missile batteries. But unlike the myth of the Patriot batteries during GW1, intercepting missiles is *really* difficult. Launch enough, and some will get through.

But yes, we should get them more.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

I'm beginning to get the impression that the Tories might be bottling the defenestration of Truss.
Too many are saying 'she should at least be given a chance', as though she might turn things around.
The longer she hangs on, the more difficult it will be to find the moment. And the more contaminated the rest of the party.

moonshine

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

You have to ask though - where the hell are these promised anti-missile batteries? Kyiv, Odessa, Cherniv, Kharkiv, Lviv - they at a minimum should all have them. Stopping Russian terror attacks with missiles can hardly be described as giving Ukraine an offensive capability.

They have some missile batteries. But unlike the myth of the Patriot batteries during GW1, intercepting missiles is *really* difficult. Launch enough, and some will get through.

But yes, we should get them more.

Some of the early reports say quite a few were indeed intercepted

Heathener

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Erm. Just want to point out that I tipped a Labour majority about 6 months ago and have banged on about it ever since.

Around the same time I said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine

And that's as much on the war talk that I can stomach, so I shall leave the boys to their toys.

StillWaters

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

FeersumEnjineeya

AlistairM said:

Also just a point about nuclear strikes. The bridge attack would have been a perfect excuse for Putin to use them. He hasn't done so. He has launched conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities. He is constrained by some influences currently.

I doubt that the bridge attack would have come anywhere near provoking a nuclear response. I 'd have thought that is more likely to be reserved for major losses on the battlefield, e.g., the loss of a large city like Kherson.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

Are they convinced, or is it just less embarrassing to Putin for it to be a fictional truck bomb rather than a Ukranian military operation which seems to have involved a boat carrying explosives.

IshmaelZ

Heathener said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Erm. Just want to point out that I tipped a Labour majority about 6 months ago and have banged on about it ever since.

Around the same time I said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine

And that's as much on the war talk that I can stomach, so I shall leave the boys to their toys.

Just want to counterpoint out that a couple of weeks ago was by no means the first time I tipped lab maj.

But I think there's enough bragging rights for 2 here.

TheScreamingEagles

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

Well she doesn’t have a grip of the parliamentary party…..

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My word, two consecutive firsts.

Is that particularly unusual at Cambridge?

Not these days.
Handed out like confectionary.

pigeon

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

Yep, these are Doodlebug raids - the actions of a beaten aggressor. Russia rattles the nuclear sabre (that it daren't ever use) because it has precious little else left.

The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.

DecrepiterJohnL

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

StillWaters

TheScreamingEagles said:

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

Well she doesn’t have a grip of the parliamentary party…..

She may still end up exiled to Bermuda at this rate

MarqueeMark

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

A truck bomb looks very unlikely. There isn't the debris that you'd expect from an explosion on the surface and it just looks too neat. To me it looks almost like a planned demolition, probably brought about by an explosion below the bridge and, as you say, most likely by Ukrainian or possibly other special forces.

100% not a truck bomb. The white lines are still on the sections of tarmaced roadway that fell into the sea. It looks new laid, let alone cratered. And then again, it would have had to be two truck bombs to cause two separate spans to collapse many yards apart. And CCTV only shows one.

Even if it is clearly bollocks, it is much easier for Russia to blame a crazed suicide bomber than admit their much-vaunted defences were breached by people laying charges at several points. The only thing that makes me go "hmmmm....." is why only one of the two carriageways collapsed. Were they disturbed before they could finish setting the charges? Did charges on the other side not detonate (Although with that massive a blast next door, you'd think they would have gone up too - like a Russian shell store). Or was it maybe sending a message - get out of the one lane left, or we'll take that down too - and trap your 25,000++ troops with no off-ramp...? Your call, Putin.

TimS

So we’re now into the V2 rocket stage of the war then. Well over a thousand were lobbed at London after September 1944, as Hitler was in the process of losing.

IshmaelZ

pigeon said:

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

Yep, these are Doodlebug raids - the actions of a beaten aggressor. Russia rattles the nuclear sabre (that it daren't ever use) because it has precious little else left.

The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.

A slightly self sabotaging post because the doodlebug was explicitly a Vergeltungswaffe. Does anyone doubt it would have been nuclear if the option existed?

Nigelb

Dnipro aftermath.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1579361483120857088

In Kyiv, reportedly a pedestrian bridge, and a kids' playground. Fortunately empty at the time.

eristdoof

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

Another two Prime Ministers by the end of January 2023 is a realistic possibility, if the current PM is ousted in the next few weeks and a caretaker PM installed before another, shorter than last time, leadership election.

JosiasJessop

MarqueeMark said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

A truck bomb looks very unlikely. There isn't the debris that you'd expect from an explosion on the surface and it just looks too neat. To me it looks almost like a planned demolition, probably brought about by an explosion below the bridge and, as you say, most likely by Ukrainian or possibly other special forces.

100% not a truck bomb. The white lines are still on the sections of tarmaced roadway that fell into the sea. It looks new laid, let alone cratered. And then again, it would have had to be two truck bombs to cause two separate spans to collapse many yards apart. And CCTV only shows one.

Even if it is clearly bollocks, it is much easier for Russia to blame a crazed suicide bomber than admit their much-vaunted defences were breached by people laying charges at several points. The only thing that makes me go "hmmmm....." is why only one of the two carriageways collapsed. Were they disturbed before they could finish setting the charges? Did charges on the other side not detonate (Although with that massive a blast next door, you'd think they would have gone up too - like a Russian shell store). Or was it maybe sending a message - get out of the one lane left, or we'll take that down too - and trap your 25,000++ troops with no off-ramp...? Your call, Putin.

One thing to note: there are ?three? fallen sections of roadway. One is broken in the middle, which I assume was at the epicentre of the blast. The other, seemingly immaculate, section of fallen roadway might just have been forced off its pier and bearings by the shockwave, or the adjacent blast-affected section of deck falling.

ydoethur

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

In the rear, and all!

pigeon

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

Are they convinced, or is it just less embarrassing to Putin for it to be a fictional truck bomb rather than a Ukranian military operation which seems to have involved a boat carrying explosives.

You wouldn't trust a Russian if he told you the sky was blue. It's likely that they are lying. A waterborne raid on a high value asset carried out by an opponent with no navy would indicate astonishing levels of incompetence, but that would be no surprise given everything else we know of the tragi-comic pantomime that's been laid on by the Kremlin.

Cicero

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

IshmaelZ

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

One could almost METAPHORICALLY say that the Chancellor has buggered the PM.

Metaphorically.

AlistairM

pigeon said:

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

Yep, these are Doodlebug raids - the actions of a beaten aggressor. Russia rattles the nuclear sabre (that it daren't ever use) because it has precious little else left.

The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.

It is also wondering why Russia hasn't used these missiles previously on military targets in battlefield areas. The answer is to just look at where the missiles have hit. They are very inaccurate with no pattern to what they are hitting. If these weapons had any sort of accuracy then they would have been used on military target. Russia are hitting out with what they have got left. They can hurt and kill a lot of civilians but it will not change the trajectory of the war.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Truss = Operation Sealion is a success

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

One could almost METAPHORICALLY say that the Chancellor has buggered the PM.

Metaphorically.

I have a feeling she's going to return the buggering with an enhanced rate of interest.

Nigelb

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

The problem of low growth is the one thing she's been right about.
Unfortunately she never had the first clue about what a solution might look like.

pigeon

ydoethur said:

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

In the rear, and all!

Don't knock it til you've tried it

MarqueeMark

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week.

Making her MPs wear those charm necklaces? So the Whips can tell at a glance who is subordinate to her will?

IshmaelZ

Cicero said:

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

Para 2 sentence 1 absolutely masterly piece of lifemanship.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

Are they convinced, or is it just less embarrassing to Putin for it to be a fictional truck bomb rather than a Ukranian military operation which seems to have involved a boat carrying explosives.

You got it! A couple of suicidal ‘terrorists’ with a truck bomb, is way easier for Putin to explain away, than what looks like a very well executed military operation by Ukranian special forces, that made a mockery of his boasts of this being the most secure bridge in the world.

Looking at the video, the truck is in the wrong place to have been the source of the explosion, which was most likely from underneath, either a drone boat or charges placed under the road by hand.

MaxPB

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

ydoethur

pigeon said:

ydoethur said:

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

In the rear, and all!

Don't knock it til you've tried it

I won't be doing so, thanks. Liz Truss just isn't my type.

Edit - or do you think that's what she said?

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

Dnipro aftermath.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1579361483120857088

In Kyiv, reportedly a pedestrian bridge, and a kids' playground. Fortunately empty at the time.

They won't have been the targets. Russian 'precision' missiles have always been rumoured to be of less precision than western ones (which is one of the reasons why they went for larger nuclear warheads). And I bet the sanctions have made the situation worse.

We're at the lob-missiles-into-a-city phase.

Scott_xP

The BoE still cleaning up the debris from the Special Fiscal Operation...

NEW
Bank of England temporarily expands post mini budget gilt funding scheme in final week “to support an orderly end of its purchase scheme” meant to help avoid funding problems in LDI funds
Buy scheme will end this week.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/october/bank-of-england-announces-additional-measures-to-support-market-functioning

paulyork64

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Also, I made an error with my football results, erroneously including an older winning tip. I'll amend the numbers a little later, once I've done something productive, but it's still green. Return falls from around 66% to 55%.

Anyone who can stay green on football betting is doing well. These markets are modelled to death so I don't even try and spend time looking for an edge.

IanB2

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

A truck bomb looks very unlikely. There isn't the debris that you'd expect from an explosion on the surface and it just looks too neat. To me it looks almost like a planned demolition, probably brought about by an explosion below the bridge and, as you say, most likely by Ukrainian or possibly other special forces.

Unless the bridge wasn’t made very well and, under the shock of a nearby explosion, a whole section of the road just dropped off? I’ll have to check on YouTube to see if there’s any evidence of Russians bodging things….

IshmaelZ

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

One could almost METAPHORICALLY say that the Chancellor has buggered the PM.

Metaphorically.

I have a feeling she's going to return the buggering with an enhanced rate of interest.

You think it is not just the currency that'll end up pegged?

Peter_the_Punter

IshmaelZ said:

Heathener said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Erm. Just want to point out that I tipped a Labour majority about 6 months ago and have banged on about it ever since.

Around the same time I said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine

And that's as much on the war talk that I can stomach, so I shall leave the boys to their toys.

Just want to counterpoint out that a couple of weeks ago was by no means the first time I tipped lab maj.

But I think there's enough bragging rights for 2 here.

TSE and I have been going on about it for months but are far too modest to mention it.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

MarqueeMark

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

Dnipro aftermath.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1579361483120857088

In Kyiv, reportedly a pedestrian bridge, and a kids' playground. Fortunately empty at the time.

They won't have been the targets. Russian 'precision' missiles have always been rumoured to be of less precision than western ones (which is one of the reasons why they went for larger nuclear warheads). And I bet the sanctions have made the situation worse.

We're at the lob-missiles-into-a-city phase.

How much longer before we get to the dictator-dead-in-a-bunker phase?

MaxPB

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

DecrepiterJohnL

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Being widely reported that KT will be holding charm offensive meetings at Nos 10 & 11 all week. Also that the rebels will simply force all of the u-turns needed to try and make the government look less sociopathic.

The problem remains that the Truss brand is destroyed. That she is to be held hostage by her own MPs is not a positive thing to sell to the electorate. It now seems clear that they will raise UC in line with inflation but they *wanted* to cut it. They aren't abolishing 45p but they *wanted* to. And once this is inevitably thrown out they won't be fracking or housebuilding in your local park but they *wanted* to.

It is a matter of time before Tory backbenchers accept this. U-turns are not enough. Their government wanted to fuck over the voters. Said voters will not say "ah well, at least they failed, and that Starmer bloke took the knee so I'll vote Tory".

She will go. Lets see how well the charmless offensive works - still time for her to go this year if she fucks up again in that clueless "you are all fools" manner of hers.

It is not just MPs holding LizT hostage, but also the guardians of Financial Orthodoxy, castigated for decades of low growth by Team Truss — the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was sacked; the Bank of England ignored; the OBR sidelined by rebranding Kwasi's budget a financial statement. A week later, the Bank of England has intervened to rescue the gilts market and bail out the pensions industry; the OBR is pictured with LizT and Kwasi; the Treasury is fully engaged in drawing up the next budget, which has been brought forward.

The problem of low growth is the one thing she's been right about.
Unfortunately she never had the first clue about what a solution might look like.

Yes, that is the irony. Liz Truss is right that we need growth, rather than trying either to cut or to tax our way to prosperity. Trouble is that if she has a plan for growth, she's not divulged it to anyone, which is what discombobulated the City. Rishi did have a plan, which LizT has abandoned. Labour might have a plan but I'm not holding my breath.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

pigeon

IshmaelZ said:

pigeon said:

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

Yep, these are Doodlebug raids - the actions of a beaten aggressor. Russia rattles the nuclear sabre (that it daren't ever use) because it has precious little else left.

The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.

A slightly self sabotaging post because the doodlebug was explicitly a Vergeltungswaffe. Does anyone doubt it would have been nuclear if the option existed?

Yes, I know the analogy isn't perfect.

If Germany had won the race to build the Bomb it would certainly have tried to use it, but its circumstances were very different. None of Russia's internationally recognized territory is disputed or under threat of invasion, only the regions that it's nicked off Ukraine, and Putin knows it.

Sandpit

TimS said:

So we’re now into the V2 rocket stage of the war then. Well over a thousand were lobbed at London after September 1944, as Hitler was in the process of losing.

Thankfully, there’s little indication that Putin can even field a hundred rockets at the moment. Looks like a dozen went to Kiev, and around 10 were intercepted by air defences on the way.

There were air raid sirens all across Western Ukraine last night, for the first time in months, but no attacks.

Casino_Royale

MarqueeMark said:

Putin didn't like his birthday present then.

He's going to be REALLY pissed when the second part of it arrives... That would make him - and Russian defences - look really silly.

Are we at the Bruce Willis stage yet?

Yippee Ki-Yay, Mutha Fucka.

ydoethur

Cicero said:

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

You only feel mild annoyance? You're luckier than me then because I'm feeling as Zhukov did in The Death of Stalin on hearing the Army had been confined to barracks.

Peter_the_Punter

Heathener said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Yep pretty much agree with that. Sunak probably = halfway between 2005 and 2001

And Boris Redux? My estimation would be a Tory defeat with a Labour majority of around 40-50. Boris still reaches red wall parts no other tory can. But it wouldn't be sufficient. And he'd lose others.

Agree re Sunak. Less sure about Boris. Do people still buy retreads?

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

uss is a last man standing scheme - so if i have understood it, that means if uss goes down the entire university sector goes under as well unless they can bail it out.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

IshmaelZ

paulyork64 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Also, I made an error with my football results, erroneously including an older winning tip. I'll amend the numbers a little later, once I've done something productive, but it's still green. Return falls from around 66% to 55%.

Anyone who can stay green on football betting is doing well. These markets are modelled to death so I don't even try and spend time looking for an edge.

Correct, kudos to MD who is going mano a mano with a bunch of quants and supercomputers.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

Yeah they're on this too. Specifically I want to know how big the funding shortfall is per company vs their current equity value. My gut feeling is that it's going to look absolutely terrible for some companies, especially in our once great engineering sector.

DecrepiterJohnL

paulyork64 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Credit to Mr. Z, who tipped Lab majority at about 4.5 a couple of weeks ago.

Also, I made an error with my football results, erroneously including an older winning tip. I'll amend the numbers a little later, once I've done something productive, but it's still green. Return falls from around 66% to 55%.

Anyone who can stay green on football betting is doing well. These markets are modelled to death so I don't even try and spend time looking for an edge.

Football markets are indeed extensively modelled but the punter still has two things going for him or her — there's a lot of "loyalty" money being bet, and bookmakers are reluctant to change prices once printed.

paulyork64

eristdoof said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

Another two Prime Ministers by the end of January 2023 is a realistic possibility, if the current PM is ousted in the next few weeks and a caretaker PM installed before another, shorter than last time, leadership election.

So we could reach 8 living ex-Prime Ministers.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

uss is a last man standing scheme - so if i have understood it, that means if uss goes down the entire university sector goes under as well unless they can bail it out.

That's one of the reasons I was asking about it.

There would be a certain irony if the government pension mistakes ended up wrecking the entire Russell Group while leaving post 92 unis (mostly in the TPS) untouched!

MaxPB

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

Not explicitly, yet there is expectation of a bail out should the fund sink.

ydoethur

paulyork64 said:

eristdoof said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

Another two Prime Ministers by the end of January 2023 is a realistic possibility, if the current PM is ousted in the next few weeks and a caretaker PM installed before another, shorter than last time, leadership election.

So we could reach 8 living ex-Prime Ministers.

While having a zombie government.

Scott_xP

Sajid Javid, the former chancellor, says: “Benefits must stay in line with inflation” #r4today

Peter_the_Punter

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

That's a smart idea, DJL. The Conservatives could keep changing the Leader until they find one that works.

You should suggest this to Central Office.

MaxPB

I'd also suggest that I'm not the only person in the City and on Wall Street asking for this data. The UK pension funding question is being asked everywhere at the moment and I really do fear that the answers are going to be extremely ugly.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

Not explicitly, yet there is expectation of a bail out should the fund sink.

Fair enough, if you feel that puts it outside the terms of reference. Building on what @rottenborough said certainly they will have some tough decisions to make when (repeat when) it does implode.

Although I wonder if a more likely scenario is that the older universities will be stripped of their endowments to meet the gap.

Not that that would be popular with Oxbridge!

Benpointer

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Sounds interesting and I look forward to the results.

Please tell me though that you haven't let your researchers know the outcome you are expecting.

Cicero

IshmaelZ said:

Cicero said:

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

Para 2 sentence 1 absolutely masterly piece of lifemanship.

well flaunt it baby, however small and objectively dull it may be.

pigeon

ydoethur said:

pigeon said:

ydoethur said:

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yes.

Truss as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to equal 1997 and then some.

Sunak as PM at the GE means a Tory defeat to be slightly worse than 2005 (in terms of majority).

Sunak = Dieppe Raid.

Truss = The Fall of Singapore.

Was the choice of Singapore deliberate… taken from an unexpected direction… you dirty sod…

In the rear, and all!

Don't knock it til you've tried it

I won't be doing so, thanks. Liz Truss just isn't my type.

Edit - or do you think that's what she said?

LOL, I was talking as a matter of general principle 😂

Liz Truss ain't exactly my type either...

MaxPB

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

Not explicitly, yet there is expectation of a bail out should the fund sink.

Fair enough, if you feel that puts it outside the terms of reference. Building on what @rottenborough said certainly they will have some tough decisions to make when (repeat when) it does implode.

Although I wonder if a more likely scenario is that the older universities will be stripped of their endowments to meet the gap.

Not that that would be popular with Oxbridge!

I expect beneficiaries will take a ~30% haircut in return for a state bailout. It will be presented as "it's this or no pension".

ydoethur

Cicero said:

IshmaelZ said:

Cicero said:

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

Para 2 sentence 1 absolutely masterly piece of lifemanship.

well flaunt it baby, however small and objectively dull it may be.

That's what Vlad said

MaxPB

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Sounds interesting and I look forward to the results.

Please tell me though that you haven't let your researchers know the outcome you are expecting.

Of course not, tbh they're just getting the data anyway, I'll do the actual analysis with a separate team.

Scott_xP

Reasons for Conservative pessimism and why Truss’s attempts to move the country to the right looks set to result in a shift to the left. Me for ⁦@ConHome⁩. https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/10/david-gauke-the-paradox-of-the-governments-start-its-trying-to-move-the-country-towards-freedom-but-risks-moving-it-towards-socialism/

IshmaelZ

Cicero said:

IshmaelZ said:

Cicero said:

How many changes of leadership must the Tories make before we all understand that it is not the leader, its the party itself?

I recall with mild annoyance that I was attending a dinner at the House of Commons in honour of a Lithuanian minister in 1995 on the day when Major resigned to force his party to back him or sack him. Since our host was a Conservative MP, instead of engaging with the international relationship between the UK and Lithuania he simply made a speech devoted to the playground politics of personal vendetta. It was insular self indulgence on a massive scale and convinced me how deeply unserious the Tories had become.

Increasingly I feel the same today.

Para 2 sentence 1 absolutely masterly piece of lifemanship.

well flaunt it baby, however small and objectively dull it may be.

I promise you it is genuinely brilliant precisely because it is 100% required by the context, therefore 0% flaunting.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

Not explicitly, yet there is expectation of a bail out should the fund sink.

Fair enough, if you feel that puts it outside the terms of reference. Building on what @rottenborough said certainly they will have some tough decisions to make when (repeat when) it does implode.

Although I wonder if a more likely scenario is that the older universities will be stripped of their endowments to meet the gap.

Not that that would be popular with Oxbridge!

I expect beneficiaries will take a ~30% haircut in return for a state bailout. It will be presented as "it's this or no pension".

And many lawyers will get very rich as a result...

MarqueeMark

pigeon said:

IshmaelZ said:

pigeon said:

AlistairM said:

I speculated last night that the Russians didn't have many missiles left. Their indiscriminate attacks overnight show that they do have a few but they are now being used as random terror weapons. Specifically targeting civilians rather than infrastructure. Whilst the attacks are shocking they do not indicate a military that can overwhelm their opposition. However, we should be trying to get more air defence systems to Ukraine.

Yep, these are Doodlebug raids - the actions of a beaten aggressor. Russia rattles the nuclear sabre (that it daren't ever use) because it has precious little else left.

The Russians can blow up a few more unlucky Ukrainian civilians but they're going to struggle to make any further advances beyond what they already hold. The outcome of the war is now entirely a matter of how much further the Russian army can be forced backwards.

A slightly self sabotaging post because the doodlebug was explicitly a Vergeltungswaffe. Does anyone doubt it would have been nuclear if the option existed?

Yes, I know the analogy isn't perfect.

If Germany had won the race to build the Bomb it would certainly have tried to use it, but its circumstances were very different. None of Russia's internationally recognized territory is disputed or under threat of invasion, only the regions that it's nicked off Ukraine, and Putin knows it.

There were reports the other day that two Russian bombers that had launched missiles into Ukraine were attacked and destroyed on the ground in Russia by drones. There were also a couple of fuel trains destroyed in Russia early on, but the Ukrainians have otherwise ostensibly* fought this campaign almost entirely on home soil. Imagine if the UK had fought WW2 without even being able to attack German troops in France.

*Hard to know if the spate of fires across Russia are Ukrainian SF or some nascent domestic partisan effort. Orr just what you'd expect over months across a vast country with very poor health and safety standards.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

Yeah they're on this too. Specifically I want to know how big the funding shortfall is per company vs their current equity value. My gut feeling is that it's going to look absolutely terrible for some companies, especially in our once great engineering sector.

I did a little project on this many, many moons ago (2003?), and IIRC, pension schemes are run off a couple of assumptions:

- employee payrises
- portfolio returns
- longevity of employees

It is worth remembering that if someone leaves at age 35 on £35k a year, accruing 15 years of benefits, that is massively better than if they leave at 50 on £60k a year, having accrued 30 years of benefits.

The worst of your liabilities come from the 20% of employees who spend a lot of time with you.

DecrepiterJohnL

eristdoof said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Not playing until we've a better idea of when the election will be called. As hinted in the header, the Conservatives could have tried another two Prime Ministers before January 2025.

Another two Prime Ministers by the end of January 2023 is a realistic possibility, if the current PM is ousted in the next few weeks and a caretaker PM installed before another, shorter than last time, leadership election.

The funny thing is that we've heard a lot about discontent on Tory benches but little about actual plotting, with Boris and Rishi apparently keeping their powder dry for the time being. My guess is that the crucial event will be the second attempt at a budget in a few weeks. If they tank the markets again this year, surely both LizT and Kwasi are toast.

The known unknown after that will be by-elections caused by Boris's peerages. The Prime Minister could delay or cancel these but that will just mean more disgruntled backbenchers.

mwadams

MarqueeMark said:

You have to ask though - where the hell are these promised anti-missile batteries? Kyiv, Odessa, Cherniv, Kharkiv, Lviv - they at a minimum should all have them. Stopping Russian terror attacks with missiles can hardly be described as giving Ukraine an offensive capability.

As I understand it there aren't many globally and most are already deployed with US allies under pre-existing arrangements.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 64, thanks, very kind of you.

So far my overall approach of blind luck and not really being into football is generally working well

eristdoof

pigeon said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Russia is convinced the bridge bomb was a truck (I’m still not so sure), and blames Ukraine special forces (that bit is almost certainly true) for the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/

Retaliatory strikes on Kiev early this morning, most of which were caught by air defences - but he doesn’t have a lot of long-range missiles left in stock, and has to use them sparingly.

Are they convinced, or is it just less embarrassing to Putin for it to be a fictional truck bomb rather than a Ukranian military operation which seems to have involved a boat carrying explosives.

You wouldn't trust a Russian if he told you the sky was blue. It's likely that they are lying. A waterborne raid on a high value asset carried out by an opponent with no navy would indicate astonishing levels of incompetence, but that would be no surprise given everything else we know of the tragi-comic pantomime that's been laid on by the Kremlin.

Russians are no more or less trustworthy than anyone else. It is Putin and the Russian Government that is corrupt, untrustworty and all the other negative adjectives you can think of.

In the same way, you, your family and your friends are not the bunch of incompetent ideological fools, that are currently running the British government.

Scott_xP

I see we are already at the “touring the tearoom” stage
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1579372969650159616

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

Are you looking at universities as well? I mean, I know it's a grey area as to whether they're state or private but if you ever want to see a shambles, take a good look at the Universities' Superannuation Scheme.

Nah, those are state backed, will do them in a separate exercise.

Now that's interesting. Are they state backed? Because AIUI the UCU have been told that they're not.

Not explicitly, yet there is expectation of a bail out should the fund sink.

Fair enough, if you feel that puts it outside the terms of reference. Building on what @rottenborough said certainly they will have some tough decisions to make when (repeat when) it does implode.

Although I wonder if a more likely scenario is that the older universities will be stripped of their endowments to meet the gap.

Not that that would be popular with Oxbridge!

I expect beneficiaries will take a ~30% haircut in return for a state bailout. It will be presented as "it's this or no pension".

And many lawyers will get very rich as a result...

Surely the shareholders of the company should get wiped out first? After all, they benefited from unsustainable promises to hire employees more cheaply.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

Yeah they're on this too. Specifically I want to know how big the funding shortfall is per company vs their current equity value. My gut feeling is that it's going to look absolutely terrible for some companies, especially in our once great engineering sector.

I did a little project on this many, many moons ago (2003?), and IIRC, pension schemes are run off a couple of assumptions:

- employee payrises
- portfolio returns
- longevity of employees

It is worth remembering that if someone leaves at age 35 on £35k a year, accruing 15 years of benefits, that is massively better than if they leave at 50 on £60k a year, having accrued 30 years of benefits.

The worst of your liabilities come from the 20% of employees who spend a lot of time with you.

I hate to think what liabilities the former vice chairman of Lloyds, who joined them in 1949 aged 15 and retired in 2000, must have them on the hook for.

Edit - he obviously didn't become VC aged 15.

DecrepiterJohnL

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

Yeah they're on this too. Specifically I want to know how big the funding shortfall is per company vs their current equity value. My gut feeling is that it's going to look absolutely terrible for some companies, especially in our once great engineering sector.

I did a little project on this many, many moons ago (2003?), and IIRC, pension schemes are run off a couple of assumptions:

- employee payrises
- portfolio returns
- longevity of employees

It is worth remembering that if someone leaves at age 35 on £35k a year, accruing 15 years of benefits, that is massively better than if they leave at 50 on £60k a year, having accrued 30 years of benefits.

The worst of your liabilities come from the 20% of employees who spend a lot of time with you.

Does this not just aggregate itself out, with some workers having a dozen small pensions over a portfolio career?

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Further to the discussion on DB pensions the other day I've put a couple of researchers on the task of collating all UK private sector pension funds, deficits, pay out timeframes and number of beneficiaries.

I think over the next 5-7 years legacy UK companies with big DB pension schemes will become uninvestible and the market meltdown triggered by Kwasi is slowly making investors realise that the UK economy is on the path to bankruptcy.

There's another overlay: the big DB schemes have lots of investments. Where are they invested? Are they mostly in UK long-dated bonds chasing yield (bad), or do they have lots of USD denominated assets (good).

Yeah they're on this too. Specifically I want to know how big the funding shortfall is per company vs their current equity value. My gut feeling is that it's going to look absolutely terrible for some companies, especially in our once great engineering sector.

I did a little project on this many, many moons ago (2003?), and IIRC, pension schemes are run off a couple of assumptions:

- employee payrises
- portfolio returns
- longevity of employees

It is worth remembering that if someone leaves at age 35 on £35k a year, accruing 15 years of benefits, that is massively better than if they leave at 50 on £60k a year, having accrued 30 years of benefits.

The worst of your liabilities come from the 20% of employees who spend a lot of time with you.

Yes, the last part is what we want to figure out. How many people are there who have massive DB pension "assets" that are currently unfunded and what would it take to fully fund them - how big is the cash call going to be and when will it be made, broken down by sector and company.