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It is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com
It is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com
The mood at the Conservative conference in Birmingham this week can hardly have been helped by another opinion poll showing the Tories with a massive deficit
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https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1577064663396884484
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/trump-sues-cnn-defamation-punitive-damages
Columbia's internal investigation found that Oz's research team inflicted extensive suffering on canine test subjects in violation of the Animal Welfare Act.
https://jezebel.com/dr-oz-s-scientific-experiments-killed-over-300-dogs-e-1849609272
(Though probably not for rhetorical tips.)
So it is now damage limitation. Who is going to cause the Conservatives the fewest seat losses? Here's a rough suggestion of how many Conservative MPs will be left after the next General Election with different leaders:
Liz Truss 0-50 Tory MP's left. A very real prospect of a total wipeout.
Kemi Badenoch 25-75 She is not the answer. Not now. Not in 5 years. Not ever.
Penny Mordaunt 50-100 They missed their chance. She should leave the Party.
Rishi Sunak 100 - 125 The sensible choice
Boris Johnson 150-250
Love him or loathe him, they should reappoint Boris Johnson. They will look ridiculous and still lose the election but he's their best damage limitation. He reaches parts no other Conservative can. I find that, and him, very unpleasant but them's the truth.
But with the way the legal system is in the US right now ?
Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458
Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.
Kwasi will present a plan (and OBR will do a forecast) which includes significant spending cuts.
MPs will then make it clear they won't vote for those cuts so the plan and OBR forecast will immediately be unachievable.
I find it incredibly hard to see how he could lead a government now. Who would serve in his cabinet ?
And the idea of a snap election seems even more absurd.
Their best hope is to appoint the most competent individuals they have.
Anything else risks extinction.
There have been a few times in this war where I've genuinely felt sorry for the Russian fighters on the ground. One was a video of a supply lorry that had a dead Russian lad in, who could barely have been twenty. This is another.
The guys on the ground have been betrayed by their incompetent military leadership and evil fascist political leadership.
Maybe HE could call a snap election if he returns?
One thing I do also really sense is that a number of them have grown weary of being in office. It's not just the country that's fed up of them now, a significant number of their own workers are. Like when an animal has been taken by a predator. It may scream and struggle for a while but eventually it knows the game is up.
It's time they went into Opposition. For their sakes as much as the country's.
Will teach me to be more cautious in the early hours.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/03/herschel-walker-daily-beast-abortion-00060160
In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
Ben Wallace is the obvious choice. With Rishi back as his Chancellor.
The Liz Truss era will just be dealt with like Bobby Ewing - it was all just a dream.
Sunak makes me 'meh'. He's okay. Not a deep threat.
The rest? They make me smile and rub my hands.
And mea culpa-d.
If there are still tories who think he is their answer then the wilderness years are going to be long.
These are tough times. They need someone with a real heart.
But I was talking about damage limitation. They will not win the next General Election. And probably not the one after either. The soul of the Conservative Party will only be found when they rediscover the soul of the nation. That's no longer around Brexit. It may be around other things but central to it will need to be genuine compassion.
Wallace isn’t a candidate for the wilderness years; he’d be a steady the ship leader to get the to the next election with the most competent set of ministers they can cobble together. The goal is to save the party from extinction.
His value is that he’s not of any faction, which makes him a rarity. And makes his appointment possible.
Another leadership election isn’t going to happen this side of a general election.
Football: weird results. All my EPL bets failed but I ended up green overall thanks to those lovely Italians and splendid Frenchmen.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/results-roundup-4-october-2022.html
But there will be a new leader.
There's still a possibility that one (or even both) of these is a feint and that the Russians are preparing a massive strike back (ala Battle of Kursk). But it's more likely to be a case of Germany 1945: collapsing on two separate fronts, with few resources to be immediately thrown in.
I also suspect that modern battlefield surveillance (spyplanes/satellites/drones) makes building up troops and equipment for a counteroffensive difficult for the Russians.
Braverman is working on plans to prevent the European Court of Human Rights from overruling the British government on deporting migrants to Rwanda. Ministers are resigned to the prospect of being prevented by legal challenges from implementing this policy before the next general election.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ce292526-4358-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=3da99d960ff2631cc8dae5ea7bae11be
And with that, the Rwanda policy dies.
https://pressgazette.co.uk/canary-staff-overthrow-directors-co-op/
The u-turn on 45p is painful(ly funny). Only the day before the Chancellor and all the ministers sent on TV insisted the 45p cut was *essential* and they must "stay the course". They even brief the press about his speech. And then, it isn't essential! Makes the market's "this is un-costed dangerous bullshit" assessment of the plan even more prescient.
And now the u-turn on the next phase. "There is no crisis, stay the course, nothing to see here" has been routed because it was absurd. And that means they have to reveal they are taking an axe to public expenditure which, like the 45p rate, will not get past Tory MPs.
They are politically utterly dead. A plaything of the outraged morals of Tory backbenchers (who knew that even existed). Unable to propose a budget or even the timetable for a budget.
That they abandoned the 45p rate isn't enough. That they will be forced to abandon the axe to public spending isn't enough. They *tried* to not only do so but arrogantly insist there was no other way and every dissenting voice was not just wrong but was anti-British.
Smashed. Wrecked. And very soon, Gone.
And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.
What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
I hope the next election is an extinction event for the Conservative Party.
No 8/13
Yes 5/4
Ladbrokes/Corals.
Would Ben Wallace be a stronger candidate? No, and to his credit he knows this and has not put himself forward to take over. But some people here are supporting him, so it seems that the contorted logic has not gone away. People seem to have forgotten what qualities a real politician / minister / prime minister should have. To fix the political system, politicians need to be held in higher regard and to be paid appropriately. Until then, it looks like the government will continue to flounder.
By definition, everyone disappointed in the contest, except Truss, who disappointed in office! They don’t have a good choice. If they had a good choice, said person would be PM now instead of Truss.
Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4
I don't think the Russians have the wherewithal for a secret counter offensive.
Glad to see Robert let you off light. People have been sent to ConHoe for less.
One interesting nugget I just read about the abrupt u-turn on 45p. Mrs Brady went to see Truss on Sunday and told her there wasn't a majority to support it.
So the '22 are already agitating formally via Sir Graham. Think what else they have already told him - and what is to come if they try and force a cut to spending.
The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
I expect to be doing penance for some time.
If, on the other hand, the economy has calmed itself and the party just needs a safe pair of hands to get it to an early election, then Theresa May might be the one. Trouble is, I cannot see which MPs would want an early election.
The support for Ben Wallace is presumably from those who have never heard him. Ah, but he spouts a good line on defence, they say, except he also signed off the last round of army cuts. Oops. Even if he was presented with a fait accompli on appointment.
Boris was toxic when he left, as can be seen from the by-election results. What do his backers think will have changed?
Penny and Kemi are too junior to take over at a time of crisis. Next leader but one, perhaps.
ETA that Gove was so toxic that David Cameron had to sack him as EdSec before the 2015 election and move him out of the front line. Fairly or not, voters don't like him.
No, the choice is Sunak to calm the markets and hope his plan for growth works, or stick with Truss and hope she has a plan for growth besides unfunded tax cuts and blowing up pension funds.
But would any of them take the job, and more important, would any of them be acceptable to the Party?
It's a right old mess, Mark. What a state when even you come across as one of its most reasonable voices!
Any IHT experts here?
My Mum has one property (was always the family home) but after my Dad passed away, has been living with my sister. She therefore has been earning rental income from this property. Just wondering if the property will still be covered by the residence nil band when she passes away?
Wallace has ended up in an important role which he is doing well and doesn't seem to belong to any of the various factions. He is the only one who could credibly lead a Tory govt of all the err, "talents".
They need time in Opposition to have the fight about what they are for.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-main-residence-nil-rate-band-and-the-existing-nil-rate-band/inheritance-tax-main-residence-nil-rate-band-and-the-existing-nil-rate-band
It’s one nominated property and it says you must have lived in it at some point so I think you are fine.
Remember a lot of people will be in a home prior to dying with the house let to cover some of the care home costs so it’s a very common issue.
Even PB's finest seldom get their predictions quite as spot on.
Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.
However unpalatable the alternatives they have to be considered.
It ain’t going to raise enough money to cover the gap and it’s political suicide - not that that would stop this bunch of muppets - but it will ensure enough MPs rebel because the other option will be a lot of very unhappy, potentially violent, constituents
If they'd listened to me they wouldn't be in this mess. A different mess admittedly, but not this one....
Never before has a PM's authority been so completely destroyed so soon after taking power.
Quick question point me at some Government spending where you can see £100m of easy to make savings…
I will exclude only foreign aid because that is so obvious (and wrong) that it’s an easy get out…
Can we just skip to the part where Liz Truss caves in on this one please?
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753
It would postpone that fight while draining temporarily draining the Truss poison.
Is he anyone's first choice of leader ? Probably not even second.
But he might be the most appointable.
Anyway, have put cash on both him and Sunak. FWIW.