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It is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com

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  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,255
    edited October 2022
    Politicians get away with a lot until they 'jump the shark'. Boris got away with being lazy, arrogant, and out for number one, but he took the piss too obviously when he enjoyed parties at number ten while preaching the opposite. That one crime was unforgivable.

    Corbyn got away with being as thick as pigshit, because he meant well. However, siding with Putin when he did means he's forever yesterday's man.

    Liz managed to achieve her own finale by proposing to reduce taxes on the rich. Even it could be justified by evidence, it fails the fairness measure. "She's taking the piss." You do that only once.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,675
    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Conservations with Tory MPs are incredibly pessimistic. Lots of them see no way of avoiding electoral annihilation, irrespective of yesterday’s tax cut u-turn 🕳

    Yesterday one told me: “We’re f***ed.”

    Today another said: “Its over. I’m finished”

    👇🏽

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-news-live-kwarteng-u-turn-45p-tax-liz-truss-12593360?postid=4582902#liveblog-body
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196
    Andy_JS said:

    As funny as it may be, Boris may end up being the only option the Tories have. The Truss government is collapsing in significant part because it has no mandate. So throwing them out on that basis and replacing them with Sunak - who continues those economic policies may be ok.

    But if the outrage from the public continues then it may have to be Boris as the only option. Remember he starts from a position of disgrace with his own massive negative ratings - so it won't be easy. And how does he do boosterism when there is no money left following KT and the Fuckup Gang crashing the economy?

    It has to be Kemi Badenoch next IMO.
    You can’t get rid of Truss and replace her with anyone less tested in high office. Kemi is just another roll of the dice - there is no way back if she proves to be a disaster. That’s why you need someone like Rishi, Gove or May. You need to be convinced that they can actually do the day to day without causing another crisis.

    Kemi is a great bet for the next LOTO though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Nothing with this Government is written in stone or even tissue paper

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1577192047710466049

    Paul Waugh

    @paulwaugh
    .@trussliz tells @NickFerrariLBC it's a matter for the King whether he attends COP27, refusing to deny she talked to him about it.

    Of course it’s a matter for the King

    He makes his own decisions having sought the counsel of his ministers
    No he doesn't, that's what Charles I had to be put right about.

    George VI wanted to go to D Day.
    Churchill wanted to go to D-Day. In order to restrain the Prime Minister, the King used the reducto ad absurdum of sending himself. Churchill did pop across later on.

    ETA but yes, it is not for KC3 to pick his own summits.
    Yes, but why is that a raa? The implication is, I want to go but you/the cabinet wouldn't let me.
    Because the objection was that on D-Day the Nazis were shooting back, so what happened if Churchill were killed? It was unthinkable that the King should put his life at risk, but in his case the succession is known and immediate (as we saw last month).
    Actually Churchill was a serious drunk and a liability by that stage. Whereas George would just have brought forward the accession by 8 years. And everyone else was putting their lives at risk...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    May would actually match up quite well against Starmer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Nothing with this Government is written in stone or even tissue paper

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1577192047710466049

    Paul Waugh

    @paulwaugh
    .@trussliz tells @NickFerrariLBC it's a matter for the King whether he attends COP27, refusing to deny she talked to him about it.

    Of course it’s a matter for the King

    He makes his own decisions having sought the counsel of his ministers
    No he doesn't, that's what Charles I had to be put right about.

    George VI wanted to go to D Day.
    Churchill wanted to go to D-Day. In order to restrain the Prime Minister, the King used the reducto ad absurdum of sending himself. Churchill did pop across later on.

    ETA but yes, it is not for KC3 to pick his own summits.
    Yes, but why is that a raa? The implication is, I want to go but you/the cabinet wouldn't let me.
    Because the objection was that on D-Day the Nazis were shooting back, so what happened if Churchill were killed? It was unthinkable that the King should put his life at risk, but in his case the succession is known and immediate (as we saw last month).
    Actually Churchill was a serious drunk and a liability by that stage. Whereas George would just have brought forward the accession by 8 years. And everyone else was putting their lives at risk...
    Also there were two plausible candidates to replace Churchill at a second's notice - Eden, who had been groomed for leadership for years, and failing him John Anderson, a retired civil servant and highly respected non-party MP who was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Attlee and Sinclair would have served under either.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,914

    Sandpit said:

    Another good night for Ukraine. Several more towns taken in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, including the key town of Borova in the East.

    Russia faces many problems in this war. One is that they're not just collapsing on one front, but two.

    There's still a possibility that one (or even both) of these is a feint and that the Russians are preparing a massive strike back (ala Battle of Kursk). But it's more likely to be a case of Germany 1945: collapsing on two separate fronts, with few resources to be immediately thrown in.

    I also suspect that modern battlefield surveillance (spyplanes/satellites/drones) makes building up troops and equipment for a counteroffensive difficult for the Russians.
    You can buy sub meter resolution satellite imagery now. Well, unless you are acRussian entity and have been sanctioned.

    An ex-NRO guy, working for one of these companies was startled when he was told they were offering a “what’s changed” service - using computer image processing to find genuine differences between passes. Ignores shadows, different angles etc. A few years ago, one of the closely held Crown Jewels of the NRO. Now a commercial service….

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,388

    Andy_JS said:

    As funny as it may be, Boris may end up being the only option the Tories have. The Truss government is collapsing in significant part because it has no mandate. So throwing them out on that basis and replacing them with Sunak - who continues those economic policies may be ok.

    But if the outrage from the public continues then it may have to be Boris as the only option. Remember he starts from a position of disgrace with his own massive negative ratings - so it won't be easy. And how does he do boosterism when there is no money left following KT and the Fuckup Gang crashing the economy?

    It has to be Kemi Badenoch next IMO.
    You can’t get rid of Truss and replace her with anyone less tested in high office. Kemi is just another roll of the dice - there is no way back if she proves to be a disaster. That’s why you need someone like Rishi, Gove or May. You need to be convinced that they can actually do the day to day without causing another crisis.

    Kemi is a great bet for the next LOTO though.
    Gove would be okay.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,939

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    Indeed they did. A load of people who never vote because they are poor and dispossessed came out to vote for something they were told would (a) stick it to the man and (b) give them a better life.

    Are you saying these same people will vote in favour of having their UC and services cut?
    No . Just saying polls are not real votes. That's all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    So, no actual downside to it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CD13 said:

    Politicians get away with a lot until they 'jump the shark'. Boris got away with being lazy, arrogant, and out for number one, but he took the piss too obviously when he enjoyed parties at number ten while preaching the opposite. That one crime was unforgivable.

    Corbyn got away with being as thick as pigshit, because he meant well. However, siding with Putin when he did means he's forever yesterday's man.

    Liz managed to achieve her own finale by proposing to reduce taxes on the rich. Even it could be justified by evidence, it fails the fairness measure. "She's taking the piss." You do that only once.

    That's just factually wrong. Boris was on course to survive partygate. It was Pincher that did him in.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,661
    eek said:

    It seems the Government / BBC are cutting down on the world service - including it's Iranian language service. Is this really a good means of saving a few quid because it's our soft power reputation disappearing here..

    https://twitter.com/mikebutcher/status/1577204733277782017
    Mike Butcher🇬🇧🇪🇺
    @mikebutcher
    ·
    10m
    BBC Arabic radio to close after 84 years. 400 staff at BBC World Service will lose their jobs. Also paring down its Iranian-language service. Seems a bad move? Maybe dump a few less crucial things? MENA is on our doorstep.

    Agree as a soft power thing it feels a lot more meaningful than nonsense with royal yachts etc.
    I wonder whether a Labour govt would give money to BBC to build back the world service. It feels like the kind of 'look we are patriotic now' thing that Starmer might go for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    IshmaelZ said:

    CD13 said:

    Politicians get away with a lot until they 'jump the shark'. Boris got away with being lazy, arrogant, and out for number one, but he took the piss too obviously when he enjoyed parties at number ten while preaching the opposite. That one crime was unforgivable.

    Corbyn got away with being as thick as pigshit, because he meant well. However, siding with Putin when he did means he's forever yesterday's man.

    Liz managed to achieve her own finale by proposing to reduce taxes on the rich. Even it could be justified by evidence, it fails the fairness measure. "She's taking the piss." You do that only once.

    That's just factually wrong. Boris was on course to survive partygate. It was Pincher that did him in.
    TBF, although he survived partygate with his party (sic) it pretty much destroyed his popularity with the public.

    It's why he won't be coming back.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As funny as it may be, Boris may end up being the only option the Tories have. The Truss government is collapsing in significant part because it has no mandate. So throwing them out on that basis and replacing them with Sunak - who continues those economic policies may be ok.

    But if the outrage from the public continues then it may have to be Boris as the only option. Remember he starts from a position of disgrace with his own massive negative ratings - so it won't be easy. And how does he do boosterism when there is no money left following KT and the Fuckup Gang crashing the economy?

    It has to be Kemi Badenoch next IMO.
    You can’t get rid of Truss and replace her with anyone less tested in high office. Kemi is just another roll of the dice - there is no way back if she proves to be a disaster. That’s why you need someone like Rishi, Gove or May. You need to be convinced that they can actually do the day to day without causing another crisis.

    Kemi is a great bet for the next LOTO though.
    Gove would be okay.
    I would vote for a Labour Party led by anyone up to and including Richard Burgon if Gove were Tory leader.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,169

    IshmaelZ said:

    Tucked away inside today's Times;

    Braverman is working on plans to prevent the European Court of Human Rights from overruling the British government on deporting migrants to Rwanda. Ministers are resigned to the prospect of being prevented by legal challenges from implementing this policy before the next general election.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ce292526-4358-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=3da99d960ff2631cc8dae5ea7bae11be

    And with that, the Rwanda policy dies.

    Can the ECHR actually overrule? I thought they could sternly wag their finger… where there is explicit parliamentary approval for something (don’t know if that is the case in this policy) the UK courts would find it difficult to overrule

    We can ignore ECHR. It says our ban on prisoners voting is unlawful but we still don't let them vote.
    We discussed this some weeks ago. If I recall correctly (might be a stretch) they didn't say the ban was unlawful, just that we hadn't followed the right procedures. In effect the farago served all sides well - the Tories were outraged at the interference, the hand-wringing lefties were delighted that the ECHR 'owned' the Tories. Although the bigger losers were the prisoners, who still can't vote.
    It was the sort of pedantry from the ECHR which would make pb.com proud.

    They said that it was unlawful for prisoners to be denied the vote by virtue of being in a group of people called "prisoners", but that it would be perfectly lawful for judges to impose the loss of voting rights on convicted criminals as part of their sentencing. Which means it could be in sentencing guidelines for any custodial sentence to be accompanied by a loss of voting rights for the same period. Which would make zero practical difference unless a judge managed to forget to include the loss of voting rights in the sentence. And you'd have to go through some absurd bureaucratic mess to add the loss of voting rights to the sentences of all existing prisoners.

    On a narrow point of principle I can understand it, but it's a bit silly in practical purposes. You wonder what might happen if a schoolchild took a case to the ECHR over whole class detentions. Pretty sure they would be unlawful on the same basis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077
    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,999
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As funny as it may be, Boris may end up being the only option the Tories have. The Truss government is collapsing in significant part because it has no mandate. So throwing them out on that basis and replacing them with Sunak - who continues those economic policies may be ok.

    But if the outrage from the public continues then it may have to be Boris as the only option. Remember he starts from a position of disgrace with his own massive negative ratings - so it won't be easy. And how does he do boosterism when there is no money left following KT and the Fuckup Gang crashing the economy?

    It has to be Kemi Badenoch next IMO.
    You can’t get rid of Truss and replace her with anyone less tested in high office. Kemi is just another roll of the dice - there is no way back if she proves to be a disaster. That’s why you need someone like Rishi, Gove or May. You need to be convinced that they can actually do the day to day without causing another crisis.

    Kemi is a great bet for the next LOTO though.
    Gove would be okay.
    I would vote for a Labour Party led by anyone up to and including Richard Burgon if Gove were Tory leader.
    Gove is not going to be leader.
    He might be given a department if Truss is booted.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    The problem is a general election is a turkey's voting for Christmas solution - no Tory MP is going to vote to become unemployed as that is the clear result of any immediate election...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196
    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    Normally I’d agree with you. But I think the Truss problem is so serious that the ridiculousness of dumping her for someone else actually is the path of least pain. Provided that:

    1. The person who replaces her is appointed in a coronation as is seen to be a grownup.

    2. The person returns to Johnsonian economic policy.

    For that reason Rishi probably has to be involved at some level.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,999
    Today in Iran, schoolgirls remove their compulsory hejab and chant “death to the dictator” while stomping on the photos of their rulers
    https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1577053179224547328
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    May would actually match up quite well against Starmer.
    But the changing of another leader and another new direction will itself cause the damage.

    Asking the voters to accept the 4th cabinet within a year? and trying to say “but this time change in personnel and direction and just about everything actually, is what we really believe in.”

    Really? That is an option? 🤭

    There is no option other than hope for Trussnomics green shoots of growth just before the election or/and rebuild from a period in opposition.

    There is a useful side though to Tory rebels talking up “letters” etc, so it will still go on despite no real thoughts of following it through, in that tge more they hollow her out and keep pressure on, the more u turns they can extract. So I’m asking you to think of these “briefings” and talk of “replacing her” as the complete opposite really - not to replace her this side of election, just weaken her government to extract u turns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    It is very difficult under the current rules to see how Truss can be removed from office without triggering an election. The reason being, the only realistic way to do it would be for a Tory rebellion on confidence or supply, which would trigger an election.

    So I agree I don't think she'll be leaving this side of an election.

    In some ways May is to blame for this. By clinging on like grim death when it was clear she was achieving nothing she set the precedent that Tory leaders don't have to be immediately despatched on the government losing the confidence of their party. That was also exploited by Johnson.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    So, no actual downside to it?
    Can Tory MPs try and have a bit of dignity for once ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    Truss staying is highly likely, but she will need to change her approach to avoid making things worse. There is no sign of that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    So, no actual downside to it?
    Can Tory MPs try and have a bit of dignity for once ?
    *thinks hard*

    I'm going with 'no.'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,582
    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    Yes I agree. A further change of leader now would be beyond ridiculous. However, there has been a significant change of power as a result of the chaos. I really do not think that we will see the likes of the mini budget statement cooked up by Truss and Kwarteng without even the cabinet being consulted again. She will be under pressure to try and build more of an internal consensus before she moves which may result in somewhat less than dynamic government but is probably a good thing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,914
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All of this talk of changing leader is an absolute joke. I know there are no good options from here, but they might as well just trigger a General election if they're seriously contemplating dumping Truss as soon as she got in.

    So, no actual downside to it?
    Can Tory MPs try and have a bit of dignity for once ?
    *thinks hard*

    I'm going with 'no.'
    More, "Why start now?"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Nothing with this Government is written in stone or even tissue paper

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1577192047710466049

    Paul Waugh

    @paulwaugh
    .@trussliz tells @NickFerrariLBC it's a matter for the King whether he attends COP27, refusing to deny she talked to him about it.

    Of course it’s a matter for the King

    He makes his own decisions having sought the counsel of his ministers
    No he doesn't, that's what Charles I had to be put right about.

    George VI wanted to go to D Day.
    Churchill wanted to go to D-Day. In order to restrain the Prime Minister, the King used the reducto ad absurdum of sending himself. Churchill did pop across later on.

    ETA but yes, it is not for KC3 to pick his own summits.
    Yes, but why is that a raa? The implication is, I want to go but you/the cabinet wouldn't let me.
    Because the objection was that on D-Day the Nazis were shooting back, so what happened if Churchill were killed? It was unthinkable that the King should put his life at risk, but in his case the succession is known and immediate (as we saw last month).
    Actually Churchill was a serious drunk and a liability by that stage. Whereas George would just have brought forward the accession by 8 years. And everyone else was putting their lives at risk...
    Also there were two plausible candidates to replace Churchill at a second's notice - Eden, who had been groomed for leadership for years, and failing him John Anderson, a retired civil servant and highly respected non-party MP who was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Attlee and Sinclair would have served under either.
    With all that flying he did, there was always the possibility of accidents or enemy action terminating him at short notice.
  • OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    The problem is the grown-ups are not in cabinet and probably don't want to be...

  • Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    May would actually match up quite well against Starmer.
    But the changing of another leader and another new direction will itself cause the damage.

    Asking the voters to accept the 4th cabinet within a year? and trying to say “but this time change in personnel and direction and just about everything actually, is what we really believe in.”

    Really? That is an option? 🤭

    There is no option other than hope for Trussnomics green shoots of growth just before the election or/and rebuild from a period in opposition.

    There is a useful side though to Tory rebels talking up “letters” etc, so it will still go on despite no real thoughts of following it through, in that tge more they hollow her out and keep pressure on, the more u turns they can extract. So I’m asking you to think of these “briefings” and talk of “replacing her” as the complete opposite really - not to replace her this side of election, just weaken her government to extract u turns.
    Tory MPs weren’t convinced that the change of direction to Truss was required. She never won a majority of MPs.

    It is horrendously embarrassing for them but the angle is: “err… oops. We didn’t realise she was that useless and bonkers. Sorry about that.” And hope the electorate have short memories.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    That's basically what I am suggesting. Ideally the reconstitution of something like the quad in Coaltion days that she has to run everything past before anything is announced. That Quad really should include Gove on the basis that some sort of brain is required.
  • OT A good bit of (almost) local news yesterday.

    https://westbridgfordwire.com/worlds-first-nuclear-fusion-energy-plant-will-be-in-nottinghamshire/

    I don't know enough about it all to know if the 'world's first' claim is accurate but sems like good news both for the area and the country as a whole.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    edited October 2022
    I wouldn't move benefits to wage inflation, on the simple fact that it *should* be cheaper for the nation long term than price inflation.
    If it isn't, well err..........
    Also it's a difficult sell with the pensions.
    Fuck knows where they're going to save money though.
    Disband the MoD save for our nukes and just send the money straight to Ukraine. They seem to be more cost effective at destroying Russian armour than our Whitehall Beaurocrats.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    It is very difficult under the current rules to see how Truss can be removed from office without triggering an election. The reason being, the only realistic way to do it would be for a Tory rebellion on confidence or supply, which would trigger an election.

    So I agree I don't think she'll be leaving this side of an election.

    In some ways May is to blame for this. By clinging on like grim death when it was clear she was achieving nothing she set the precedent that Tory leaders don't have to be immediately despatched on the government losing the confidence of their party. That was also exploited by Johnson.
    Now would be a good time to fix that but the issue then becomes the membership's right to have a say over the party leader.

    Which means you can't have a coronation because there will always be a looney candidate willing to stand and throw a spanner into the coronation and that candidate has a chance of winning because, well, Tory members are batshit crazy....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    Wouldn't work, because she would resign rather than accept it.

    The last time such an arrangement happened was in 1906-1908 and that was partly because the very elderly PM himself wanted to make a point rather than carry out any sort of programme.
  • algarkirk said:

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!
    Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.

    Tying up with all the anecdotal evidence I have found too: Truss and Kwasi are absolute kryptonite. I have yet to speak to one person who I know voted Tory at the last election who is on record as saying they will do so next time (I do not know any die hard party members but…).

    I can fully believe the polls.

    If the party constitution didn’t restrict this, I’d suggest parachuting May in with Rishi as Chancellor, on the understanding May is there to steady the ship and Rishi will be the successor fighting the next election for the Tories. As it stands there’s no mechanism to do this, so instead I think they should go for Rishi as PM but on the understanding the cabinet includes whatever big hitters they’ve got left in Parliament - the Mays, Goves, Hunts etc.
    There is a perfectly decent cabinet available, especially with a couple of elevations to the Lords: Gove, Mitchell, Hat, Hunt, Greening, Grieve, Gauke, Rishi, Mordaunt, Saj, TM, Hague, Cameron, Rory....

    They could at least run the country for a bit without destroying us while Labour get ready for centrist social democracy.

    The actual by-election results - as opposed to the polls - do suggest the country is not yet fully convinced of Labour as a Government. Part of that has to do with Starmer himself who is still an enigma to many, part because nobody knows their policies, part because the population doesn't really trust Labour and / or doesn't seeing a potential Cabinet brimming with talent.

    Having said that, I do think we are at the end of the 40-year dominance of the Reagan / Thatcher consensus with Covid having shown there is a role for a more interventionist state. A lot of this is down to the fact that a lot of people feel things are in genteel decline and so the priority is to make that decline as comfortable as possible.

    In that regards, Truss and Kwarteng should be given credit for at least thinking bold, even if you disagree with their actual policies. We often criticise politicians for not being brave enough or radical enough. You wouldn't accuse LT and KK although their communication has been atrocious to say the least.

    However, from an electoral standpoint, the Tories need someone who can convince the population that they can do the paternalistic Government thing. If they can, I think they can still do well in the next GE because, as noted above, Labour has not sealed the deal. So a return to BJ is entirely possible. The other alternative would be to get a rising star from the Red Wall / Red Tory grouping.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    It is very difficult under the current rules to see how Truss can be removed from office without triggering an election. The reason being, the only realistic way to do it would be for a Tory rebellion on confidence or supply, which would trigger an election.

    So I agree I don't think she'll be leaving this side of an election.

    In some ways May is to blame for this. By clinging on like grim death when it was clear she was achieving nothing she set the precedent that Tory leaders don't have to be immediately despatched on the government losing the confidence of their party. That was also exploited by Johnson.
    Now would be a good time to fix that but the issue then becomes the membership's right to have a say over the party leader.

    Which means you can't have a coronation because there will always be a looney candidate willing to stand and throw a spanner into the coronation and that candidate has a chance of winning because, well, Tory members are batshit crazy....
    What we could really do with is a system where the leader of the governing party is selected via an open primary, organised a la a general election.

    The chances of this happening are to put it mildly remote.
  • ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
  • Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Torrential rain on the day made some difference. Whilst the country was fairly evenly split, there is no doubt that leavers were the more passionate about it all.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,588
    Nigelb said:

    Today in Iran, schoolgirls remove their compulsory hejab and chant “death to the dictator” while stomping on the photos of their rulers
    https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1577053179224547328

    Well done them! How does the regime stop that? Lock them up? Shoot them? That would only make the situation worse. How can the protesters take it to the next level to remove the regime? That is the difficulty, unfortunately.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,476

    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Partly, I think, because of Dom's excellent campaigning strategy - which was to build a campaign around giving those who had no affection for our EU membership several good reasons to vote Leave.

    Partly because there was no real effort for several decades, amongst EU supporters, to engage the electorate in a democratic decision regarding constitutional changes.

    Partly, and I think this had a not insignificant impact, because all the commentators were indicating that Remain would win. Hence 14/1 was available on the betting markets at 10pm on polling day.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,476

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    I can imagine some Heathite wet in the early 80s coming up with a similar 'cunning plan'.

    Lucky they didn't succeed, eh?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    AlistairM said:

    Nigelb said:

    Today in Iran, schoolgirls remove their compulsory hejab and chant “death to the dictator” while stomping on the photos of their rulers
    https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1577053179224547328

    Well done them! How does the regime stop that? Lock them up? Shoot them? That would only make the situation worse. How can the protesters take it to the next level to remove the regime? That is the difficulty, unfortunately.
    When's that ever stopped them?

    Which only makes the girls' actions all the braver.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wouldn't move benefits to wage inflation, on the simple fact that it *should* be cheaper for the nation long term than price inflation.
    If it isn't, well err..........
    Also it's a difficult sell with the pensions.
    Fuck knows where they're going to save money though.
    Disband the MoD save for our nukes and just send the money straight to Ukraine. They seem to be more cost effective at destroying Russian armour than our Whitehall Beaurocrats.

    That sounds like long-standing Conservative defence policy dating back to Mrs Thatcher. Cut, cut and cut again because all we need is Trident and the SAS.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    Nigelb said:

    As funny as it may be, Boris may end up being the only option the Tories have. The Truss government is collapsing in significant part because it has no mandate. So throwing them out on that basis and replacing them with Sunak - who continues those economic policies may be ok.

    But if the outrage from the public continues then it may have to be Boris as the only option. Remember he starts from a position of disgrace with his own massive negative ratings - so it won't be easy. And how does he do boosterism when there is no money left following KT and the Fuckup Gang crashing the economy?

    The only way back for him would be a members' vote.
    Not going to happen - and I doubt he'd want to stand once the party is in opposition..
    If the party is in opposition he would've lost his seat! Unless he's thrown out now and the party finds him safe one at the election. Which would be an absolutely dreadful look!
  • Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Partly, I think, because of Dom's excellent campaigning strategy - which was to build a campaign around giving those who had no affection for our EU membership several good reasons to vote Leave.

    Partly because there was no real effort for several decades, amongst EU supporters, to engage the electorate in a democratic decision regarding constitutional changes.

    Partly, and I think this had a not insignificant impact, because all the commentators were indicating that Remain would win. Hence 14/1 was available on the betting markets at 10pm on polling day.
    Yes, Dominic Cummings knew that many Leave voters were not voting for Brexit at all. Hence the importance of levelling up.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    +1 - the reason a lot of us made decent money on Brexit was a particular spreadsheet and the fact the polls said remain was a sure fire winner
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,978

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    One thing we know about Theresa May - she knows how to lose an election!

    Ben Wallace is the obvious choice. With Rishi back as his Chancellor.

    The Liz Truss era will just be dealt with like Bobby Ewing - it was all just a dream.
    Fortunately the farce won't go on for several series, and let's face it, what harm could have been done when Boris Ewing walks from the shower after just a few weeks away?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    ydoethur said:

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    Wouldn't work, because she would resign rather than accept it.

    The last time such an arrangement happened was in 1906-1908 and that was partly because the very elderly PM himself wanted to make a point rather than carry out any sort of programme.
    Truss resigning in those circumstances is OK because the party would then say as a result X is taking over. No membership vote.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Truss did go before the next election I think Wallace would be the likely replacement by coronation. However I think she stays

    It is very difficult under the current rules to see how Truss can be removed from office without triggering an election. The reason being, the only realistic way to do it would be for a Tory rebellion on confidence or supply, which would trigger an election.

    So I agree I don't think she'll be leaving this side of an election.

    In some ways May is to blame for this. By clinging on like grim death when it was clear she was achieving nothing she set the precedent that Tory leaders don't have to be immediately despatched on the government losing the confidence of their party. That was also exploited by Johnson.
    Now would be a good time to fix that but the issue then becomes the membership's right to have a say over the party leader.

    Which means you can't have a coronation because there will always be a looney candidate willing to stand and throw a spanner into the coronation and that candidate has a chance of winning because, well, Tory members are batshit crazy....
    What we could really do with is a system where the leader of the governing party is selected via an open primary, organised a la a general election.

    The chances of this happening are to put it mildly remote.
    I'm perfectly happy for MPs to have the final say - we are after all a Parliamentary democracy. My problem is that party members should not be anywhere near the decision unless the party is in opposition (and even then the party will get the disaster to deserves as demonstrated by Corbyn)...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,388

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    Everyone's being far too dramatic about the situation. The reality is there isn't an election due for more than 2 years.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,347
    Are any PB correspondents attending the Conservative Party conference and willing to report on the mood of the delegates? The views of those who voted for Truss as leader would be particularly interesting.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!
    Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.

    Tying up with all the anecdotal evidence I have found too: Truss and Kwasi are absolute kryptonite. I have yet to speak to one person who I know voted Tory at the last election who is on record as saying they will do so next time (I do not know any die hard party members but…).

    I can fully believe the polls.

    If the party constitution didn’t restrict this, I’d suggest parachuting May in with Rishi as Chancellor, on the understanding May is there to steady the ship and Rishi will be the successor fighting the next election for the Tories. As it stands there’s no mechanism to do this, so instead I think they should go for Rishi as PM but on the understanding the cabinet includes whatever big hitters they’ve got left in Parliament - the Mays, Goves, Hunts etc.
    There is a perfectly decent cabinet available, especially with a couple of elevations to the Lords: Gove, Mitchell, Hat, Hunt, Greening, Grieve, Gauke, Rishi, Mordaunt, Saj, TM, Hague, Cameron, Rory....

    They could at least run the country for a bit without destroying us while Labour get ready for centrist social democracy.

    The actual by-election results - as opposed to the polls - do suggest the country is not yet fully convinced of Labour as a Government. Part of that has to do with Starmer himself who is still an enigma to many, part because nobody knows their policies, part because the population doesn't really trust Labour and / or doesn't seeing a potential Cabinet brimming with talent.

    Having said that, I do think we are at the end of the 40-year dominance of the Reagan / Thatcher consensus with Covid having shown there is a role for a more interventionist state. A lot of this is down to the fact that a lot of people feel things are in genteel decline and so the priority is to make that decline as comfortable as possible.

    In that regards, Truss and Kwarteng should be given credit for at least thinking bold, even if you disagree with their actual policies. We often criticise politicians for not being brave enough or radical enough. You wouldn't accuse LT and KK although their communication has been atrocious to say the least.

    However, from an electoral standpoint, the Tories need someone who can convince the population that they can do the paternalistic Government thing. If they can, I think they can still do well in the next GE because, as noted above, Labour has not sealed the deal. So a return to BJ is entirely possible. The other alternative would be to get a rising star from the Red Wall / Red Tory grouping.
    A thoughtful post.

    I think people continue to embrace the free market of Reagan and Thatcher, but there has been a reassessment of what the state can and should do, and the pandemic has helped this idea take hold.

    That is where SKS’s pitch of “getting the state involved to help everyday people” is gaining traction and resonance. People want the state to help public workers own a decent wage, help shield them from the worst instincts of the market, and provide good local and public services. Even more so than in the Blair years IMHO.

    What’s more the public just aren’t convinced that the richest can’t contribute more.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,751
    edited October 2022
    Listening to Truss on R4 this morning, I've worked out one of the things I find irritating about her. Both in the leadership campaign and in interviews now, she frequently prefaces her answer with a redundant: "I'm somebody who..,,,". Why?

    So, we have:
    I'm somebody who keeps their promises.
    I'm somebody who gets things done.
    I'm somebody who has a clear plan.

    I await:
    I'm somebody who is leading my party to electoral oblivion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Truss-Sunak was a bigger polling failure than leave/remain:

    2.05% swing needed from the simple final polling average for Leave to win.
    As was a 3.94% swing was achieved to leave from final polling.

    Truss won by 14.8%; the final polls (From Techne, Opinium, ConHome, Yougov) indicated a 28% lead.
    So that was a 6.6% swing from final polling to Rishi.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    Everyone's being far too dramatic about the situation. The reality is there isn't an election due for more than 2 years.
    But Truss's conference speech is due tomorrow.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!
    Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.

    Tying up with all the anecdotal evidence I have found too: Truss and Kwasi are absolute kryptonite. I have yet to speak to one person who I know voted Tory at the last election who is on record as saying they will do so next time (I do not know any die hard party members but…).

    I can fully believe the polls.

    If the party constitution didn’t restrict this, I’d suggest parachuting May in with Rishi as Chancellor, on the understanding May is there to steady the ship and Rishi will be the successor fighting the next election for the Tories. As it stands there’s no mechanism to do this, so instead I think they should go for Rishi as PM but on the understanding the cabinet includes whatever big hitters they’ve got left in Parliament - the Mays, Goves, Hunts etc.
    There is a perfectly decent cabinet available, especially with a couple of elevations to the Lords: Gove, Mitchell, Hat, Hunt, Greening, Grieve, Gauke, Rishi, Mordaunt, Saj, TM, Hague, Cameron, Rory....

    They could at least run the country for a bit without destroying us while Labour get ready for centrist social democracy.

    The actual by-election results - as opposed to the polls - do suggest the country is not yet fully convinced of Labour as a Government. Part of that has to do with Starmer himself who is still an enigma to many, part because nobody knows their policies, part because the population doesn't really trust Labour and / or doesn't seeing a potential Cabinet brimming with talent.

    Having said that, I do think we are at the end of the 40-year dominance of the Reagan / Thatcher consensus with Covid having shown there is a role for a more interventionist state. A lot of this is down to the fact that a lot of people feel things are in genteel decline and so the priority is to make that decline as comfortable as possible.

    In that regards, Truss and Kwarteng should be given credit for at least thinking bold, even if you disagree with their actual policies. We often criticise politicians for not being brave enough or radical enough. You wouldn't accuse LT and KK although their communication has been atrocious to say the least.

    However, from an electoral standpoint, the Tories need someone who can convince the population that they can do the paternalistic Government thing. If they can, I think they can still do well in the next GE because, as noted above, Labour has not sealed the deal. So a return to BJ is entirely possible. The other alternative would be to get a rising star from the Red Wall / Red Tory grouping.
    All previous by-elections were when Boris was PM.

    You really are clutching at straws if you think the next byelection (West Lancashire) is going to give Liz a boost - I suspect the tory party will be lucky to keep their deposit....
  • Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Torrential rain on the day made some difference. Whilst the country was fairly evenly split, there is no doubt that leavers were the more passionate about it all.
    Considering turnout was considerably higher than any other election, and I believe from memory at the top end of expectations, I doubt that the weather suppressed turnout.
  • Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    Everyone's being far too dramatic about the situation. The reality is there isn't an election due for more than 2 years.
    True. But unfortunately Kwasi's not-budget chucked a grenade into the City and any economic plans. The Bank of England had to intervene to steady the gilts market and bail out pension funds. LizT's government which two weeks ago was opposed to austerity might be forced into massive cuts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    UTTERLY PAINFUL minute of Liz Truss on @LBC, flat out refusing to say there will NOT be more u-turns on this budget, but also refuting that this means there might be more u-turns. Shambles. ~AA https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1577219805614313472/video/1
  • eek said:

    +1 - the reason a lot of us made decent money on Brexit was a particular spreadsheet and the fact the polls said remain was a sure fire winner
    That spreadsheet was the most incredible piece of information I've ever seen at any election. Seeing result after result where Leave won their areas by better than 'par' and Remain lost some of those, or won theirs by less than 'par', made it much more obvious sooner which way the result was going.

    From memory for a while the media would talk up areas Remain had won as a victory for Remain, but the spreadsheet showed that even their victories typically weren't by enough to reach par.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    TMay didn’t perform terribly in the red wall - indeed at the time she called her ill-fated election there was a lot of talk that she’d be the one to really make a break through there. She actually made a few cracks in it which then became a deluge in 2019.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    OK, how about this.

    The Conservatives are stuck with Truss. They can't nominate a replacement by acclamation because there are too many crazies will put forward a candidate who will mess it all up.

    So la Truss stays in office, but not in power. A figurehead who we don't see very often, and says as little as possible when we do. The image I have is General Franco after about 1970. Meanwhile grownups nominally under her steady the ship a bit so that 2024 is merely a bad defeat.

    (This stroke of madness is inspired by all the pre-recorded interviews she seems to be doing right now).

    Utterly humiliating for her, sure, but serves her right for screwing up this badly.

    It would be a bit like Poland where the President and PM are subordinate to Kaczyński. Perhaps Gove will emerge as the de facto leader.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    Everyone's being far too dramatic about the situation. The reality is there isn't an election due for more than 2 years.
    True. But unfortunately Kwasi's not-budget chucked a grenade into the City and any economic plans. The Bank of England had to intervene to steady the gilts market and bail out pension funds. LizT's government which two weeks ago was opposed to austerity might be forced into massive cuts.
    And the next cluster***k approaches - how the hell does Truss get the cuts through?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,582
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    So everything the state spends money on is necessary and implemented in the best possible way?
    The Tory party has been cutting things for 12 years via austerity and then random “money saving”.

    Quick question point me at some Government spending where you can see £100m of easy to make savings…

    I will exclude only foreign aid because that is so obvious (and wrong) that it’s an easy get out…
    That’s *exactly* the wrong way to look at it. £100m makes no difference in the scheme of things.

    I would look at:

    - reforming housing benefit (and selectively building social property for short term stays)
    - Linking pensions to earnings only not the triple lock
    - Redesigning in work benefits so they are not abused by firms looking to underpay staff

    None of it will be easy. But the impact would be large
    You are right on housing benefit and pensions. I don't know enough about in work benefits to say either way.

    However, housing benefit reforms hits landlords and house prices hardest. Triple lock hits pensioners hardest.

    These are the Tory party client votes that are sacred.
    Nothing is sacred. The triple lock has only been around for a decade.Change needs to be sold

    Oh, is that how they plan to raise money for the tax cuts?
    Keep the triple lock but roll NI into Income Tax, abolish the reduced rate for dividends; tax all income at the same rates.

    Those rates can probably lower than the 33.25% & 43.25% that are the current combined ICT+NI rates on earned income.

    Start taxing wealth and gradually shift the balance of taxation away from income, towards wealth.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Replacing Truss will lead to more calls for an election . Having said that if the Tories can do a quick coronation and the next leader is more popular with the public then they’d still have time for some recovery .

    The idea though of Johnson returning is laughable . He’s still under investigation and won’t change, there will be more drama and the Tories can’t afford that closer to a GE.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Nothing with this Government is written in stone or even tissue paper

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1577192047710466049

    Paul Waugh

    @paulwaugh
    .@trussliz tells @NickFerrariLBC it's a matter for the King whether he attends COP27, refusing to deny she talked to him about it.

    Of course it’s a matter for the King

    He makes his own decisions having sought the counsel of his ministers
    No he doesn't, that's what Charles I had to be put right about.

    George VI wanted to go to D Day.
    That was just a ploy to get Churchill to abandon his intention to land on the beaches the first day
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!
    Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.

    Tying up with all the anecdotal evidence I have found too: Truss and Kwasi are absolute kryptonite. I have yet to speak to one person who I know voted Tory at the last election who is on record as saying they will do so next time (I do not know any die hard party members but…).

    I can fully believe the polls.

    If the party constitution didn’t restrict this, I’d suggest parachuting May in with Rishi as Chancellor, on the understanding May is there to steady the ship and Rishi will be the successor fighting the next election for the Tories. As it stands there’s no mechanism to do this, so instead I think they should go for Rishi as PM but on the understanding the cabinet includes whatever big hitters they’ve got left in Parliament - the Mays, Goves, Hunts etc.
    There is a perfectly decent cabinet available, especially with a couple of elevations to the Lords: Gove, Mitchell, Hat, Hunt, Greening, Grieve, Gauke, Rishi, Mordaunt, Saj, TM, Hague, Cameron, Rory....

    They could at least run the country for a bit without destroying us while Labour get ready for centrist social democracy.

    The actual by-election results - as opposed to the polls - do suggest the country is not yet fully convinced of Labour as a Government. Part of that has to do with Starmer himself who is still an enigma to many, part because nobody knows their policies, part because the population doesn't really trust Labour and / or doesn't seeing a potential Cabinet brimming with talent.

    Having said that, I do think we are at the end of the 40-year dominance of the Reagan / Thatcher consensus with Covid having shown there is a role for a more interventionist state. A lot of this is down to the fact that a lot of people feel things are in genteel decline and so the priority is to make that decline as comfortable as possible.

    In that regards, Truss and Kwarteng should be given credit for at least thinking bold, even if you disagree with their actual policies. We often criticise politicians for not being brave enough or radical enough. You wouldn't accuse LT and KK although their communication has been atrocious to say the least.

    However, from an electoral standpoint, the Tories need someone who can convince the population that they can do the paternalistic Government thing. If they can, I think they can still do well in the next GE because, as noted above, Labour has not sealed the deal. So a return to BJ is entirely possible. The other alternative would be to get a rising star from the Red Wall / Red Tory grouping.
    All previous by-elections were when Boris was PM.

    You really are clutching at straws if you think the next byelection (West Lancashire) is going to give Liz a boost - I suspect the tory party will be lucky to keep their deposit....
    I suspect our friend TKC is also looking at the local by-elections. They certainly don't give credence to the idea that the Tory party is collapsing; not doing well, but not collapsing.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,979

    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Torrential rain on the day made some difference. Whilst the country was fairly evenly split, there is no doubt that leavers were the more passionate about it all.
    There was an academic study that found that the rain helped Remain.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,477
    I don't understand how the Tories can legitimately do another leadership selection. Like, constitutionally, sure, but just from the perspective of how people see things:

    1) They (the electorate writ large) voted for a Johnson Tory government - economic populism was the mainstay
    2) Johnson personally lost the trust of the electorate due to partygate - but nothing about his policies seemed to be losing popularity
    3) The Tory selectorate choose Truss - someone who doesn't seem to sign up to that economic populist policy model
    4) The electorate writ large hate Truss' policies.

    You have two big issues here. The electorate seems to want economic populism, but have turned on Johnson, and the Tory party members seem to want Thatcherism, but also still like Johnson. So how can going back to Tory party members solve this problem? Would Tory members be furious if they are asked to pick again, and pick correctly this time thank you, and see a Sunak coronation as a stitch up? Would the general public trust a Tory that swapped out a PM after two or three month in the job?

    It seems to me the only reasonable response is a GE - the Tories have picked their leader and that leader seems to disagree with the manifesto she and her party were elected on. So write a new manifesto, call a GE and see if the public support it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164

    And the next cluster***k approaches - how the hell does Truss get the cuts through?

    The only cut Truss can make this week is Kwasi...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Will Liz Truss survive? Is Keir Starmer a winner? Could Boris come back?

    It’s all in the focus groups with Tories in marginal seats which will decide the next election.

    Come take a look with me, pollster @jamesjohnson252 and other guests at 11am

    https://twitter.com/ryan_wain/status/1576854907336155136
  • 148grss said:

    I don't understand how the Tories can legitimately do another leadership selection. Like, constitutionally, sure, but just from the perspective of how people see things:

    1) They (the electorate writ large) voted for a Johnson Tory government - economic populism was the mainstay
    2) Johnson personally lost the trust of the electorate due to partygate - but nothing about his policies seemed to be losing popularity
    3) The Tory selectorate choose Truss - someone who doesn't seem to sign up to that economic populist policy model
    4) The electorate writ large hate Truss' policies.

    You have two big issues here. The electorate seems to want economic populism, but have turned on Johnson, and the Tory party members seem to want Thatcherism, but also still like Johnson. So how can going back to Tory party members solve this problem? Would Tory members be furious if they are asked to pick again, and pick correctly this time thank you, and see a Sunak coronation as a stitch up? Would the general public trust a Tory that swapped out a PM after two or three month in the job?

    It seems to me the only reasonable response is a GE - the Tories have picked their leader and that leader seems to disagree with the manifesto she and her party were elected on. So write a new manifesto, call a GE and see if the public support it.

    Two thirds of Tory MPs wouldn't support her manifesto either!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,582
    Scott_xP said:

    UTTERLY PAINFUL minute of Liz Truss on @LBC, flat out refusing to say there will NOT be more u-turns on this budget, but also refuting that this means there might be more u-turns. Shambles. ~AA https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1577219805614313472/video/1

    She sounds rather bewildered to me, as if she's totally shocked the rest of the world doesn't get it.

    She also sounds very flat - I think she knows she's royally f*cked up her premiership for good.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    edited October 2022
    eek said:

    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...

    I am sure I am not alone in suspecting that Ms Braverman will not be bothered about treaties. She wants her headline in the Daily Express!
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    eek said:

    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...

    And once again the fix for this alongside a lot of other things has been available on here for years.

    large £25,000+ fine for employing an illegal immigrant with director's jointly and personally liable.

    Residency for anyone reporting an employer who is found to be employing illegal workers.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,169
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Torrential rain on the day made some difference. Whilst the country was fairly evenly split, there is no doubt that leavers were the more passionate about it all.
    There was an academic study that found that the rain helped Remain.
    Is that because of the areas/times where it rained?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    As others have argued, if Truss is to be replaced it has to be via a coronation and for that to happen the vast majority of Tory MPs would need to coalesce around one candidate. It would need to be a candidate of sufficient status and experience to seamlessly and quickly step into the role and also a candidate acceptable to the vast majority of both wings of the party. For me the only two likely figures are the two former PMs currently in parliament; May and Boris. I've backed May at 100/1. I 've just had a small bet on Boris at 13.0.

    It would actually be hilarious if May returned to No.10 after Johnson had clung on like grim death to ensure he passed her time in office!
    The Theresa May redemption arc would be quite hilarious.
    All this talk of D-Day makes me wonder if the Party could not reach some deal like with Churchill and Neville Chamberlain where Theresa May becomes Prime Minister but Boris returns as Conservative Party leader so would fight the next election, so those MPs who think Boris can still attract Red Wall votes can be kept onside. (To be clear, I do not advocate this.)

    Again, it comes back to what problem the party is trying to solve. To calm the markets, Rishi. To steady the ship, May. To enthuse activists, Boris.
    Everyone's being far too dramatic about the situation. The reality is there isn't an election due for more than 2 years.
    True. But unfortunately Kwasi's not-budget chucked a grenade into the City and any economic plans. The Bank of England had to intervene to steady the gilts market and bail out pension funds. LizT's government which two weeks ago was opposed to austerity might be forced into massive cuts.
    Whilst making very generous contributions to my gas bill. They have got this completely wrong, spending tens of billions on the reasonably well off whilst giving some support to the poor but then taking it away again with cuts. It's a mess.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,795
    Tories are stuck with Truss now, all remaining credibility will disappear if they switch leaders again after a few months. She will lose the GE badly but not as badly as current polls and I think most Tory MPs are resigned to that.

    Although Truss/Kwartang have been pegged back back their MPs the cat is now out of the bag - the public has rumbled their game and they don't like it.

    What intrigues me is the Tory membership. Johnson's premiership rapidly and predictably collapsed due to all his flaws that were well known before he was elected but the membership knew better. They have done exactly the same with Truss and the way her premiership has gone so far was entirely predicable but again the Tory members knew better.

    Unless the party can find a way to bypass the members they are likely to go for another disaster and before HUFYD correctly reminds us that the members chose Cameron I would remind him that the membership has morphed into UKIP-lite since 2016. Thousands of sane Tories have since walked away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,914
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...

    And once again the fix for this alongside a lot of other things has been available on here for years.

    large £25,000+ fine for employing an illegal immigrant with director's jointly and personally liable.

    Residency for anyone reporting an employer who is found to be employing illegal workers.
    Make it 100K - the immigrant who reports it gets half.

    This would be self funding - the ambulance chasing lawyers would be all over that luscious 50K like a tramps on chips.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,846
    The empire did better with Valentinian than Jovian.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,196
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    UTTERLY PAINFUL minute of Liz Truss on @LBC, flat out refusing to say there will NOT be more u-turns on this budget, but also refuting that this means there might be more u-turns. Shambles. ~AA https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1577219805614313472/video/1

    She sounds rather bewildered to me, as if she's totally shocked the rest of the world doesn't get it.

    She also sounds very flat - I think she knows she's royally f*cked up her premiership for good.
    The fact that someone wasn’t willing to tell her - Liz, this is going to be an utter car crash. You are going to destroy your premiership overnight. Don’t do it. Make aspirational noises re lowering tax for 2024 and focus on the energy bills - or that they did and she didn’t listen - shows either the level of sheer dysfunction at the top of the Tory Party or that she is the least suited person to become PM in British history because she just doesn’t get it. Possibly both.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...

    And once again the fix for this alongside a lot of other things has been available on here for years.

    large £25,000+ fine for employing an illegal immigrant with director's jointly and personally liable.

    Residency for anyone reporting an employer who is found to be employing illegal workers.
    I don't think turning every HR department into a mini-Home Office is the right direction to go in.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Will Liz Truss survive? Is Keir Starmer a winner? Could Boris come back?

    It’s all in the focus groups with Tories in marginal seats which will decide the next election.

    Come take a look with me, pollster @jamesjohnson252 and other guests at 11am

    https://twitter.com/ryan_wain/status/1576854907336155136

    I would pay more attention to focus groups than polls - with polls opnion can go off grid so you won’t really know what actual votes will be till elections.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Today's stupid idea

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577183670879735808

    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    EXCL: Suella Braverman will today announce plans for a new law to bar anyone who crosses the Channel in small boats from claiming asylum:


    Let me count the number of international treaties going back over 100 years that make this illegal....

    Now I can't fault the idea but it just doesn't work otherwise we would have tried this a decade ago...

    And once again the fix for this alongside a lot of other things has been available on here for years.

    large £25,000+ fine for employing an illegal immigrant with director's jointly and personally liable.

    Residency for anyone reporting an employer who is found to be employing illegal workers.
    Make it 100K - the immigrant who reports it gets half.

    This would be self funding - the ambulance chasing lawyers would be all over that luscious 50K like a tramps on chips.
    And allow people who are seeking asylum, whose case is being considered, to work. The advantage there is that they would have a national insurance number and an address.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,979

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    The polls said Brexit would lose...

    100% revisionist nonsense.
    Indeed it is. The momentum was clearly with Leave in the last few weeks.

    image
    What's interesting is how solidly don't knows broke towards leave in the final weeks.

    I believe that traditionally, globally, don't knows normally break towards the status quo (hence in part swingback) which normally means voting No in a referendum, or Remain here, but the movement was very firmly in the opposite direction here.
    Torrential rain on the day made some difference. Whilst the country was fairly evenly split, there is no doubt that leavers were the more passionate about it all.
    There was an academic study that found that the rain helped Remain.
    Is that because of the areas/times where it rained?
    I think they looked at turnout data at quite a granular level and found that where it chucked it down turnout held up better in Remain areas than in neighbouring Leave areas.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,169
    148grss said:

    I don't understand how the Tories can legitimately do another leadership selection. Like, constitutionally, sure, but just from the perspective of how people see things...
    Snip

    I think that the situation is so extraordinary, where a new leader has so comprehensively lost the trust of the public so quickly and completely, that taking the unprecedented action of choosing another leader only a month in quite possibly makes more sense than not.

    Extraordinary events sometimes require extraordinary responses.
This discussion has been closed.