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It is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
imageIt is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com

The mood at the Conservative conference in Birmingham this week can hardly have been helped by another opinion poll showing the Tories with a massive deficit

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,311
    First, like Govey to get the boot in......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    If this reporting holds up, "Trump himself eventually packed the boxes that were returned in January," his conduct would have been so egregious that DOJ will have to indict to maintain the rule of law-anyone else would be indicted, he must be too.
    https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1577064663396884484
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Trump sues CNN for defamation and seeks $475m in punitive damages
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/trump-sues-cnn-defamation-punitive-damages
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Dr. Oz’s Scientific Experiments Killed Over 300 Dogs, Entire Litter of Puppies
    Columbia's internal investigation found that Oz's research team inflicted extensive suffering on canine test subjects in violation of the Animal Welfare Act.
    https://jezebel.com/dr-oz-s-scientific-experiments-killed-over-300-dogs-e-1849609272
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    On topic, the conference speech should be worth watching.
    (Though probably not for rhetorical tips.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    Nigelb said:

    Trump sues CNN for defamation and seeks $475m in punitive damages
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/trump-sues-cnn-defamation-punitive-damages

    I hear they've offered him a free subscription to CNN's new subscription service!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    edited October 4
    You don't come back from sea-change polls like this. It's going to be 1997 again, only bigger. From October 1992-7 the British economy bounced back. This time it is in parlous state. On this I agree with Priti Patel: lose the economy, lose the election.

    So it is now damage limitation. Who is going to cause the Conservatives the fewest seat losses? Here's a rough suggestion of how many Conservative MPs will be left after the next General Election with different leaders:

    Liz Truss 0-50 Tory MP's left. A very real prospect of a total wipeout.

    Kemi Badenoch 25-75 She is not the answer. Not now. Not in 5 years. Not ever.

    Penny Mordaunt 50-100 They missed their chance. She should leave the Party.

    Rishi Sunak 100 - 125 The sensible choice

    Boris Johnson 150-250


    Love him or loathe him, they should reappoint Boris Johnson. They will look ridiculous and still lose the election but he's their best damage limitation. He reaches parts no other Conservative can. I find that, and him, very unpleasant but them's the truth.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump sues CNN for defamation and seeks $475m in punitive damages
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/trump-sues-cnn-defamation-punitive-damages

    I hear they've offered him a free subscription to CNN's new subscription service!
    The suit ought to be an utter joke, since to take its arguments seriously would be effectively to ban most forms of political speech for anyone but the most wealthy.
    But with the way the legal system is in the US right now ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,238
    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    It's pretty obvious what is going to happen next.

    Kwasi will present a plan (and OBR will do a forecast) which includes significant spending cuts.

    MPs will then make it clear they won't vote for those cuts so the plan and OBR forecast will immediately be unachievable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Heathener said:

    You don't come back from sea-change polls like this. It's going to be 1997 again, only bigger. From October 1992-7 the British economy bounced back. This time it is in parlous state. On this I agree with Priti Patel: lose the economy, lose the election.

    So it is now damage limitation. Who is going to cause the Conservatives the fewest seat losses? Here's a rough suggestion of how many Conservative MPs will be left after the next General Election with different leaders:

    Liz Truss 0-50 Tory MP's left. A very real prospect of a total wipeout.

    Kemi Badenoch 25-75 She is not the answer. Not now. Not in 5 years. Not ever.

    Penny Mordaunt 50-100 They missed their chance. She should leave the Party.

    Rishi Sunak 100 - 125 The sensible choice

    Boris Johnson 150-250

    Love him or loathe him, they should reappoint Boris Johnson. They will look ridiculous and still lose the election but he's their best damage limitation. He reaches parts no other Conservative can. I find that, and him, very unpleasant but them's the truth.

    Is it ?
    I find it incredibly hard to see how he could lead a government now. Who would serve in his cabinet ?
    And the idea of a snap election seems even more absurd.

    Their best hope is to appoint the most competent individuals they have.
    Anything else risks extinction.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,311
    Heathener said:

    You don't come back from sea-change polls like this. It's going to be 1997 again, only bigger. From October 1992-7 the British economy bounced back. This time it is in parlous state. On this I agree with Priti Patel: lose the economy, lose the election.

    So it is now damage limitation. Who is going to cause the Conservatives the fewest seat losses? Here's a rough suggestion of how many Conservative MPs will be left after the next General Election with different leaders:

    Liz Truss 0-50 Tory MP's left. A very real prospect of a total wipeout.

    Kemi Badenoch 25-75 She is not the answer. Not now. Not in 5 years. Not ever.

    Penny Mordaunt 50-100 They missed their chance. She should leave the Party.

    Rishi Sunak 100 - 125 The sensible choice

    Boris Johnson 150-250


    Love him or loathe him, they should reappoint Boris Johnson. They will look ridiculous and still lose the election but he's their best damage limitation. He reaches parts no other Conservative can. I find that, and him, very unpleasant but them's the truth.


    following the events of June (by his own words chained to a radiator in Downing St) I cannot see the Party going back to him... there's too much poison, resentment and ego involved. I sense they are stuck with Truss unless she decides to step down...... it makes an early GE that bit more likely
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    Yes, chilling but also quite amazing effectiveness.

    There have been a few times in this war where I've genuinely felt sorry for the Russian fighters on the ground. One was a video of a supply lorry that had a dead Russian lad in, who could barely have been twenty. This is another.

    The guys on the ground have been betrayed by their incompetent military leadership and evil fascist political leadership.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    edited October 4
    Interesting responses below to my suggestion that they should reappoint Boris Johnson. I don't strongly disagree with any of you but I still think he's their best damage limitation i.e. most tory MPs keeping their jobs.

    Maybe HE could call a snap election if he returns?

    One thing I do also really sense is that a number of them have grown weary of being in office. It's not just the country that's fed up of them now, a significant number of their own workers are. Like when an animal has been taken by a predator. It may scream and struggle for a while but eventually it knows the game is up.

    It's time they went into Opposition. For their sakes as much as the country's.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Heathener said:

    Interesting responses below to my suggestion that they should reappoint Boris Johnson. I don't strongly disagree with any of you but I still think he's their best damage limitation i.e. most tory MPs keeping their jobs.

    Maybe HE could call a snap election if he returns?

    One thing I do also really sense is that a number of them have grown weary of being in office. It's not just the country that's fed up of them now, a significant number of their own workers are. Like when an animal has been taken by a predator. It may scream and struggle for a while but eventually it knows the game is up.

    It's time they went into Opposition. For their sakes as much as the country's.

    Whether we get an early election depends on whether about 35 Tory MPs can be found who both know their political careers are over, and are prepared to put country above party. The Conservatives are going to have to be removed by Parliamentary vote: the Government's funeral pyre has been lit and I don't see most of its members simply throwing themselves into the flames of their own volition. Just like the Major ministry, they'll try to cling on to office until the last possible moment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited October 4
    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    Arma 3 video game. But it pretty much compares with the life expectancy of a Russian tank crew in Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    edited October 4

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    Arma 3 video game. But it pretty much compares with the life expectancy of a Russian tank crew in Ukraine.
    Fake then ?
    Will teach me to be more cautious in the early hours.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Herschel Walker threatens to sue over abortion accusation and is then attacked by son
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/03/herschel-walker-daily-beast-abortion-00060160
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    When's the last time we heard a politician ask a substantive question, one asked to get information or knowledge?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220
    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    She could also bring Sunak back as CoE, which is where he needs to be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    One thing we know about Theresa May - she knows how to lose an election!

    Ben Wallace is the obvious choice. With Rishi back as his Chancellor.

    The Liz Truss era will just be dealt with like Bobby Ewing - it was all just a dream.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    One thing we know about Theresa May - she knows how to lose an election!

    Ben Wallace is the obvious choice. With Rishi back as his Chancellor.

    The Liz Truss era will just be dealt with like Bobby Ewing - it was all just a dream.
    Ben Wallace and Penny Mordaunt in the top team. I'm unsure I'd want Rishi anywhere near the nation's coffers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    The thing is @pigeon appointing Theresa May won't win back the 2019 Red Wall voters. So she might shore up the southern heartlands (debatable) but she will get no traction up north. Not after Boris showed her how it's done.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859
    As a Leftie the only one whom I fear is Boris. He's capable of pulling something out of the bag. A lying piece of shit but dangerous.

    Sunak makes me 'meh'. He's okay. Not a deep threat.

    The rest? They make me smile and rub my hands.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,859

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.

    Ben Wallace is
    He's ghastly.

    If there are still tories who think he is their answer then the wilderness years are going to be long.

    These are tough times. They need someone with a real heart.

    But I was talking about damage limitation. They will not win the next General Election. And probably not the one after either. The soul of the Conservative Party will only be found when they rediscover the soul of the nation. That's no longer around Brexit. It may be around other things but central to it will need to be genuine compassion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
    No problem. I promise not to bring it up more than 2 or 3 times an hour.
    I would expect no less.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited October 4

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
    No problem. I promise not to bring it up more than 2 or 3 times an hour.
    Keep what goes on between the two of you in the bedroom please. We need no smut on here, thanks... ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.

    Ben Wallace is
    He's ghastly.

    If there are still tories who think he is their answer then the wilderness years are going to be long.

    These are tough times. They need someone with a real heart…
    And you suggest Boris !

    Wallace isn’t a candidate for the wilderness years; he’d be a steady the ship leader to get the to the next election with the most competent set of ministers they can cobble together. The goal is to save the party from extinction.
    His value is that he’s not of any faction, which makes him a rarity. And makes his appointment possible.

    Another leadership election isn’t going to happen this side of a general election.


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,642
    edited October 4

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    Isn't that SKS's schtick?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
    Would you take Gove?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,660
    Good morning, everyone.

    Football: weird results. All my EPL bets failed but I ended up green overall thanks to those lovely Italians and splendid Frenchmen.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/results-roundup-4-october-2022.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,642
    edited October 4
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.

    Ben Wallace is
    He's ghastly.

    If there are still tories who think he is their answer then the wilderness years are going to be long.

    These are tough times. They need someone with a real heart…
    And you suggest Boris !

    Wallace isn’t a candidate for the wilderness years; he’d be a steady the ship leader to get the to the next election with the most competent set of ministers they can cobble together. The goal is to save the party from extinction.
    His value is that he’s not of any faction, which makes him a rarity. And makes his appointment possible.

    Another leadership election isn’t going to happen this side of a general election.


    Correct. There won't be an election.

    But there will be a new leader.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    Sandpit said:

    Another good night for Ukraine. Several more towns taken in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, including the key town of Borova in the East.

    Russia faces many problems in this war. One is that they're not just collapsing on one front, but two.

    There's still a possibility that one (or even both) of these is a feint and that the Russians are preparing a massive strike back (ala Battle of Kursk). But it's more likely to be a case of Germany 1945: collapsing on two separate fronts, with few resources to be immediately thrown in.

    I also suspect that modern battlefield surveillance (spyplanes/satellites/drones) makes building up troops and equipment for a counteroffensive difficult for the Russians.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,789
    Tucked away inside today's Times;

    Braverman is working on plans to prevent the European Court of Human Rights from overruling the British government on deporting migrants to Rwanda. Ministers are resigned to the prospect of being prevented by legal challenges from implementing this policy before the next general election.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ce292526-4358-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=3da99d960ff2631cc8dae5ea7bae11be

    And with that, the Rwanda policy dies.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    I see that the Canary has been .. er .. canned, in an appropriate manner.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/canary-staff-overthrow-directors-co-op/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    Nigelb said:

    On topic, the conference speech should be worth watching.
    (Though probably not for rhetorical tips.)

    It might surprise on the upside if LizT has spent the past few days rehearsing, like when she suddenly improved during the leadership campaign.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Morning all! I'm going to be super busy with work all week, but managed to follow some of yesterday's events. Its worse than even I imagined it could be.

    The u-turn on 45p is painful(ly funny). Only the day before the Chancellor and all the ministers sent on TV insisted the 45p cut was *essential* and they must "stay the course". They even brief the press about his speech. And then, it isn't essential! Makes the market's "this is un-costed dangerous bullshit" assessment of the plan even more prescient.

    And now the u-turn on the next phase. "There is no crisis, stay the course, nothing to see here" has been routed because it was absurd. And that means they have to reveal they are taking an axe to public expenditure which, like the 45p rate, will not get past Tory MPs.

    They are politically utterly dead. A plaything of the outraged morals of Tory backbenchers (who knew that even existed). Unable to propose a budget or even the timetable for a budget.

    That they abandoned the 45p rate isn't enough. That they will be forced to abandon the axe to public spending isn't enough. They *tried* to not only do so but arrogantly insist there was no other way and every dissenting voice was not just wrong but was anti-British.

    Smashed. Wrecked. And very soon, Gone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    MattW said:

    I see that the Canary has been .. er .. canned, in an appropriate manner.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/canary-staff-overthrow-directors-co-op/

    "all staff are directors". That should be a fun experiment to watch.....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,420

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    Didn't someone on here say his closet is a veritable ossuary?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    Nigelb said:

    On topic, the conference speech should be worth watching.
    (Though probably not for rhetorical tips.)

    'Don't do it like this' could be construed as a tip.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,789

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
    Sure. So who is that? I think the obvious candidates are those who stood recently, or Johnson. From which, I guess Sunak, Mordaunt or Javid…? Maybe Shapps or Hunt.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
    The problem is that the non-crazy elements of the Tory party have been got rid of in various purges over the last 6 years. Only the crazies are left, and they are different brands of crazy that cannot work together.

    I hope the next election is an extinction event for the Conservative Party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
    Sure. So who is that? I think the obvious candidates are those who stood recently, or Johnson. From which, I guess Sunak, Mordaunt or Javid…? Maybe Shapps or Hunt.

    Mordaunt disappointed in the contest but would probably retain the most seats.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    Will Liz Truss be Conservative Party leader at the next election?
    No 8/13
    Yes 5/4
    Ladbrokes/Corals.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That's a video game.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 357
    edited October 4
    Liz Truss has cost the Conservative Party lots of support in the polls, and she is under-qualified to be PM. Is she to blame for this? No. The blame lies with the contorted logic by which so many people justified voting for her to be Conservative leader and PM, despite her being out of her depth, which was obvious all the time.

    Would Ben Wallace be a stronger candidate? No, and to his credit he knows this and has not put himself forward to take over. But some people here are supporting him, so it seems that the contorted logic has not gone away. People seem to have forgotten what qualities a real politician / minister / prime minister should have. To fix the political system, politicians need to be held in higher regard and to be paid appropriately. Until then, it looks like the government will continue to flounder.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
    Sure. So who is that? I think the obvious candidates are those who stood recently, or Johnson. From which, I guess Sunak, Mordaunt or Javid…? Maybe Shapps or Hunt.

    Mordaunt disappointed in the contest but would probably retain the most seats.
    Maybe.

    By definition, everyone disappointed in the contest, except Truss, who disappointed in office! They don’t have a good choice. If they had a good choice, said person would be PM now instead of Truss.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited October 4

    Sandpit said:

    Another good night for Ukraine. Several more towns taken in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, including the key town of Borova in the East.

    Russia faces many problems in this war. One is that they're not just collapsing on one front, but two.

    There's still a possibility that one (or even both) of these is a feint and that the Russians are preparing a massive strike back (ala Battle of Kursk). But it's more likely to be a case of Germany 1945: collapsing on two separate fronts, with few resources to be immediately thrown in.

    I also suspect that modern battlefield surveillance (spyplanes/satellites/drones) makes building up troops and equipment for a counteroffensive difficult for the Russians.
    HIMARS also means it now needs to be built up a long way from the front. The front has moved 45k in a day recently - which risk pushes it even further back. So far back that with spyplanes/satellites/drones, you are going to get plenty of warning when it does start to roll forward.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    Sandpit said:

    Another good night for Ukraine. Several more towns taken in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, including the key town of Borova in the East.

    Ukraine claiming 44 tanks and 27 APCs lost by Russia yesterday. Massive losses.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    fox327 said:

    Liz Truss has cost the Conservative Party lots of support in the polls, and she is under-qualified to be PM. Is she to blame for this? No. The blame lies with the contorted logic by which so many people justified voting for her to be Conservative leader and PM, despite her being out of her depth, which was obvious all the time.

    Would Ben Wallace be a stronger candidate? No, and to his credit he knows this and has not put himself forward to take over. But some people here are supporting him, so it seems that the contorted logic has not gone away. People seem to have forgotten what qualities a real politician / minister / prime minister should have. To fix the political system, politicians need to be held in higher regard and to be paid appropriately. Until then, it looks like the government will continue to flounder.

    Who’s to blame? Isn’t it often the same with Tory leaderships? The Right of the party have enough MPs to get their choice into the top 2, and then the party members pick them. IDS, Howard, Truss, etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Sandpit said:

    Another good night for Ukraine. Several more towns taken in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, including the key town of Borova in the East.

    Russia faces many problems in this war. One is that they're not just collapsing on one front, but two.

    There's still a possibility that one (or even both) of these is a feint and that the Russians are preparing a massive strike back (ala Battle of Kursk). But it's more likely to be a case of Germany 1945: collapsing on two separate fronts, with few resources to be immediately thrown in.

    I also suspect that modern battlefield surveillance (spyplanes/satellites/drones) makes building up troops and equipment for a counteroffensive difficult for the Russians.
    HIMARS also means it now needs to be built up a long way from the front. The front has moved 45k in a day recently - which risk pushes it even further back. So far back that with spyplanes/satellites/drones, you are going to get plenty of warning when it does start to roll forward.
    I am sure that between signals and satellite observation that we are keeping the UKR very well supplied with information. I suspect they know the Russian order of battle better than the Russian commanders.

    I don't think the Russians have the wherewithal for a secret counter offensive.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
    No problem. I promise not to bring it up more than 2 or 3 times an hour.
    I would expect no less.
    Lol! No sweat, Nigel. We've all had those sorts of moments.

    Glad to see Robert let you off light. People have been sent to ConHoe for less. ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Jonathan said:

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
    Would you take Gove?
    Yes, but only because he is very pro tidal lagoons. Would the public warm to him? I doubt it very much.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    On Liz Truss I find that I just don't care. I've always become very keen to see the back of a Conservative PM, but Truss is such a tragicomic figure - still not a month into the job, but having self-sabotaged so completely - that I can't take her at all seriously.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Its now a demonstrable fact that the Big Budget Plan is to take an axe to public services and the welfare state. The problem for KT and the Fuckup Gang is that there is Zero chance they get the party to vote for it.

    One interesting nugget I just read about the abrupt u-turn on 45p. Mrs Brady went to see Truss on Sunday and told her there wasn't a majority to support it.

    So the '22 are already agitating formally via Sir Graham. Think what else they have already told him - and what is to come if they try and force a cut to spending.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    1922 committee cannot do that, any more than your local returning officer can deprive you of your vote. Also it is unnecessary in your scenario, if you can arrange for there to be only one candidate there is no membership vote anyway (see May 2016)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That's a video game.
    I know.
    I expect to be doing penance for some time.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    edited October 4

    pigeon said:

    They cannot afford another confidence vote fiasco and subsequent reliance on the brain-dead Tory membership.

    Retiring on health grounds or family grounds is her only reasonably graceful exit from this point, and also by far the best outcome for her party.

    If Tory MPs are going to go down the forced removal route then they need to engineer a coronation. That'll require a majority to agree on a single candidate, and then the 1922 committee to change the rules to strip the fossil membership of their run-off vote.

    In the discussion of who to try to lead the Tories to something less than a calamitous defeat, the obvious candidate is neither Johnson nor Sunak, it's Theresa May. Please, no laughing at the back. By definition, she has experience and is untainted by association with the adventures of her predecessors, and her period in office represents a golden age of competence and probity when contrasted with that which has followed. Besides which, her aspirations for ministerial office have already been and gone, thus the expected heavy defeat can't kill off a career that was already over.
    The Tories are going to lose the next election, but you can’t go into that election saying you’re going to lose, which is what appointing May in a temporary role would amount to. You have to pretend you’re going to win. Ergo, you need a leader who wants to be their for a long time.
    True, but anyone who thinks that the Conservatives have a meaningful chance of winning next time is deluded, and anyone who wants the job is crazy.

    And whilst deluded crazies are ten a penny in politics, making one of them PM will make matters worse.

    What's really needed is someone who knows, deep down, what the true situation is, but can convincingly pretend otherwise.
    Sure. So who is that? I think the obvious candidates are those who stood recently, or Johnson. From which, I guess Sunak, Mordaunt or Javid…? Maybe Shapps or Hunt.

    What problem is the Conservative Party (and/or government) trying to solve in replacing Liz Truss? If the urgent need is to quiesce "the markets" there is only one choice, and that is Rishi Sunak, not just because he was Chancellor before but because, during the campaign, he predicted exactly what would happen if Truss went ahead with her proposals. Sunak's Brucie Bonus is that he also has an actual plan for economic growth.

    If, on the other hand, the economy has calmed itself and the party just needs a safe pair of hands to get it to an early election, then Theresa May might be the one. Trouble is, I cannot see which MPs would want an early election.

    The support for Ben Wallace is presumably from those who have never heard him. Ah, but he spouts a good line on defence, they say, except he also signed off the last round of army cuts. Oops. Even if he was presented with a fait accompli on appointment.

    Boris was toxic when he left, as can be seen from the by-election results. What do his backers think will have changed?

    Penny and Kemi are too junior to take over at a time of crisis. Next leader but one, perhaps.

    ETA that Gove was so toxic that David Cameron had to sack him as EdSec before the 2015 election and move him out of the front line. Fairly or not, voters don't like him.

    No, the choice is Sunak to calm the markets and hope his plan for growth works, or stick with Truss and hope she has a plan for growth besides unfunded tax cuts and blowing up pension funds.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    They want to hammer the workshy lazy feckless Brits. Thats their entire plan. Poor? Hungry? Get a job. Have a job? Get a better job!!! Vote Conservative.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    John Major.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    Didn't someone on here say his closet is a veritable ossuary?
    Sounds perfect!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225

    Jonathan said:

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
    Would you take Gove?
    Yes, but only because he is very pro tidal lagoons. Would the public warm to him? I doubt it very much.
    I'd take Gove, or Wallace, or Sunak, or Hunt, or Tugendhat, and one or two others.

    But would any of them take the job, and more important, would any of them be acceptable to the Party?

    It's a right old mess, Mark. What a state when even you come across as one of its most reasonable voices! :wink:
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,964
    Morning everyone.

    Any IHT experts here?

    My Mum has one property (was always the family home) but after my Dad passed away, has been living with my sister. She therefore has been earning rental income from this property. Just wondering if the property will still be covered by the residence nil band when she passes away?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
    No problem. I promise not to bring it up more than 2 or 3 times an hour.
    His posting of the Onion’s amicus brief on the last thread should count in mitigation
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    Jonathan said:

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
    Would you take Gove?
    Yes, but only because he is very pro tidal lagoons. Would the public warm to him? I doubt it very much.
    I'd take Gove, or Wallace, or Sunak, or Hunt, or Tugendhat, and one or two others.

    But would any of them take the job, and more important, would any of them be acceptable to the Party?

    It's a right old mess, Mark. What a state when even you come across as one of its most reasonable voices! :wink:
    Only Wallace would have a majority in the party. Hunt and Tugenhat have a bit more support than Truss amongst MPs but not loads more, and much less in the wider party. Sunak lost so it would look wrong. Gove has stabbed everyone in the back and front multiple times, a heavyweight performer but not someone with wide support.

    Wallace has ended up in an important role which he is doing well and doesn't seem to belong to any of the various factions. He is the only one who could credibly lead a Tory govt of all the err, "talents".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    No way can they change leader yet again.
    They need time in Opposition to have the fight about what they are for.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347

    Tucked away inside today's Times;

    Braverman is working on plans to prevent the European Court of Human Rights from overruling the British government on deporting migrants to Rwanda. Ministers are resigned to the prospect of being prevented by legal challenges from implementing this policy before the next general election.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ce292526-4358-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=3da99d960ff2631cc8dae5ea7bae11be

    And with that, the Rwanda policy dies.

    Can the ECHR actually overrule? I thought they could sternly wag their finger… where there is explicit parliamentary approval for something (don’t know if that is the case in this policy) the UK courts would find it difficult to overrule

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Video of the terrifying effectiveness of top attack ATGMs.
    Shot at dusk (I think), it’s quite chilling.
    https://twitter.com/MushangweBetter/status/1576892880882323458

    That is very obviously a video game.
    As has been noted.
    And mea culpa-d.
    No problem. I promise not to bring it up more than 2 or 3 times an hour.
    His posting of the Onion’s amicus brief on the last thread should count in mitigation
    Very friendly of you to say so.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    murali_s said:

    Morning everyone.

    Any IHT experts here?

    My Mum has one property (was always the family home) but after my Dad passed away, has been living with my sister. She therefore has been earning rental income from this property. Just wondering if the property will still be covered by the residence nil band when she passes away?

    Not an expert beyond Google but this should help

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-main-residence-nil-rate-band-and-the-existing-nil-rate-band/inheritance-tax-main-residence-nil-rate-band-and-the-existing-nil-rate-band

    It’s one nominated property and it says you must have lived in it at some point so I think you are fine.

    Remember a lot of people will be in a home prior to dying with the house let to cover some of the care home costs so it’s a very common issue.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    Rishi is the only possibility. He correctly stated that Truss and everything she was proposing would make the Party a laughing stock. It would be a disaster for the markets and it simply wouldn't work.

    Even PB's finest seldom get their predictions quite as spot on.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!
    Interesting program on Channel 5 last night; about 40 people, a significant number of whom voted Conservative last time in discussion. Only one or two were going to vote Conservative next time and nearly all seem to be in sympathy with the current wave of strikes.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323
    murali_s said:

    Morning everyone.

    Any IHT experts here?

    My Mum has one property (was always the family home) but after my Dad passed away, has been living with my sister. She therefore has been earning rental income from this property. Just wondering if the property will still be covered by the residence nil band when she passes away?

    Of all the questions that is worth spending some money on with a professional this is in the Top 10. Seriously. Getting this wrong (God forbid ANYONE on PB being wrong!) could be very expensive indeed.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225
    dixiedean said:

    No way can they change leader yet again.
    They need time in Opposition to have the fight about what they are for.

    Sounds plausible enough, Dixie, until you factor in that under Truss the Parliamentary Conservative Party is likely to be reduced to a rump of about a dozen or so MPs.

    However unpalatable the alternatives they have to be considered.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    edited October 4

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    They want to hammer the workshy lazy feckless Brits. Thats their entire plan. Poor? Hungry? Get a job. Have a job? Get a better job!!! Vote Conservative.
    They can want to do that all they desire.

    It ain’t going to raise enough money to cover the gap and it’s political suicide - not that that would stop this bunch of muppets - but it will ensure enough MPs rebel because the other option will be a lot of very unhappy, potentially violent, constituents
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    So everything the state spends money on is necessary and implemented in the best possible way?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Jonathan said:

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    ...and therefore just what is needed right now. A man who has no personal ambition for the top job, but serves if his country calls. So very different to the skin stretched over ambition we've had from Boris and Liz.
    Would you take Gove?
    Yes, but only because he is very pro tidal lagoons. Would the public warm to him? I doubt it very much.
    I'd take Gove, or Wallace, or Sunak, or Hunt, or Tugendhat, and one or two others.

    But would any of them take the job, and more important, would any of them be acceptable to the Party?

    It's a right old mess, Mark. What a state when even you come across as one of its most reasonable voices! :wink:
    Thanks (I think!).

    If they'd listened to me they wouldn't be in this mess. A different mess admittedly, but not this one....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    John Major.....
    He’d been Foreign Secretary and Chancellor so had a different level of gravitas.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 464
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    And so the rebellion against the next Truss/Kwarteng flagship policy of spending cuts begins only a day after their defeat on their last flagship policy of tax cuts for the wealthy.

    Never before has a PM's authority been so completely destroyed so soon after taking power.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    So everything the state spends money on is necessary and implemented in the best possible way?
    After 12 years of Conservative leadership, how much low-hanging fruit do you imagine is left?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    And so the rebellion against the next Truss/Kwarteng flagship policy of spending cuts begins only a day after their defeat on their last flagship policy of tax cuts for the wealthy.

    Never before has a PM's authority been so completely destroyed so soon after taking power.
    It would have been two weeks sooner, but for Her Majesty dying.....
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    Supposedly they need to find £20bn of spending cuts - I just don’t see any at all.

    The easiest way to fill that £20bn gap is going to be reversing their corporation tax cut - I just don’t see any other solution that works…
    So everything the state spends money on is necessary and implemented in the best possible way?
    The Tory party has been cutting things for 12 years via austerity and then random “money saving”.

    Quick question point me at some Government spending where you can see £100m of easy to make savings…

    I will exclude only foreign aid because that is so obvious (and wrong) that it’s an easy get out…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    Ben Wallace would never normally be regarded as a promising leadership candidate. He’s the equivalent of someone like Michael Ancram: respected but dull and anonymous.

    John Major.....
    He’d been Foreign Secretary and Chancellor so had a different level of gravitas.
    His spitting image puppet showed he had little to no gravitas when a leadership candidate despite those roles.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,112
    Brandon Lewis has just been on Sky repeatedly refusing to say whether benefits should rise with inflation.

    Can we just skip to the part where Liz Truss caves in on this one please?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    DougSeal said:

    murali_s said:

    Morning everyone.

    Any IHT experts here?

    My Mum has one property (was always the family home) but after my Dad passed away, has been living with my sister. She therefore has been earning rental income from this property. Just wondering if the property will still be covered by the residence nil band when she passes away?

    Of all the questions that is worth spending some money on with a professional this is in the Top 10. Seriously. Getting this wrong (God forbid ANYONE on PB being wrong!) could be very expensive indeed.
    It also isn’t difficult to answer - everything you need to know is in the link I posted below. But ask Age concern if you want extra advice as they will be able to answer what must be a very common question…
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?t=nZFEmrcKZIW4X5Z-hKNwBg&s=19

    Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.” 1/4

    And so the rebellion against the next Truss/Kwarteng flagship policy of spending cuts begins only a day after their defeat on their last flagship policy of tax cuts for the wealthy.

    Never before has a PM's authority been so completely destroyed so soon after taking power.
    It would have been two weeks sooner, but for Her Majesty dying.....
    If it hadn’t been for the queen dying it may not have blown up in the way it did…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    dixiedean said:

    No way can they change leader yet again.
    They need time in Opposition to have the fight about what they are for.

    Which is the point of Wallace.
    It would postpone that fight while draining temporarily draining the Truss poison.

    Is he anyone's first choice of leader ? Probably not even second.
    But he might be the most appointable.

    Anyway, have put cash on both him and Sunak. FWIW.
This discussion has been closed.