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Truss manages to infuriate Nadine – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,643
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just backed Rishi for next PM and next Cons leader.

    Have heard rumblings that Liz is not long for this world of PMness.

    I note that on Wikipedia the only 2 people with shorter reigns as PM are listed as disputed* on the basis that they probably never were PM

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

    I suspect she is likely to last less time than George Canning (she has to manage another 3 months to get to that date),
    The same person who told me mid-leadership contest that she was going to be a disaster has put it at weeks with Rishi taking over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    edited October 3
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just backed Rishi for next PM and next Cons leader.

    Have heard rumblings that Liz is not long for this world of PMness.

    I note that on Wikipedia the only 2 people with shorter reigns as PM are listed as disputed* on the basis that they probably never were PM

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

    I suspect she is likely to last less time than George Canning (she has to manage another 3 months to get to that date),
    How much have you put on that ?

    Price is 7.8/11 for her to last till the end of the year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Stocky said:

    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be a controversial view but I don't think it should be down to the government to keep people "safe" online. Adults are free to make their own choices and parents have parental responsibility.

    Sorry, Pulp, I disagree. How exactly are parents supposed to keep their kids safe online?

    The answer is, they can’t.

    The world has now got to the point where the online/offline distinction has become irrelevant. I think todays youngsters understand this. Adults over ~30ish, still don’t get it. They think of the internet as a “thing” that can be turned off. It can’t.

    The laws need to be recalibrated for this new hybrid world, but I think it’s absolutely the case that government should keep us safe.

    The internet is the real world. It needs to be policed.
    To some degree it does need to be policed but it is not the government's job to keep us safe.
    What do you think the police are for?

    (Although TBF that is a very good question with no good answer at the moment.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    Has everyone forgotten how incompetent the plotting was against Boris ??
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    edited October 3
    Phil said:

    C4 sale, online safety, BBC licence feee review - all signed off by cabinet all ready to go
    All of these were either terrible ideas to start with, or workable ideas that were terribly implemented (no surprise there, given Dorries’ history) so I find my self entirely unmoved by Nadine’s distress.

    C4 sale was pointless, online safety was implemented in a way that would throttle any UK local internet company in the crib, further entrenching the internet giants at the expense of any possible future competitors. Meanwhile the BBC is going to have to be reformed somehow in the light of streaming / internet revolution, but there was no sign that the government was willing to actually engage with reality here either.
    Since when has the BBC been willing to engage in reality either ? The BBC has rejected, numerous times, calls to move from the license fee in spite of the way the media landscape has changed.

    Reaction to the govt proposal to review the method of funding was howls of outrage from well paid Blue ticks on social media and general indignation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited October 3
    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    Now that is worrying. Dr Strangelove-type risk games and escalatory military planning, even if if unsourced bluster only, so far.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
  • ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be a controversial view but I don't think it should be down to the government to keep people "safe" online. Adults are free to make their own choices and parents have parental responsibility.

    Sorry, Pulp, I disagree. How exactly are parents supposed to keep their kids safe online?

    The answer is, they can’t.

    The world has now got to the point where the online/offline distinction has become irrelevant. I think todays youngsters understand this. Adults over ~30ish, still don’t get it. They think of the internet as a “thing” that can be turned off. It can’t.

    The laws need to be recalibrated for this new hybrid world, but I think it’s absolutely the case that government should keep us safe.

    The internet is the real world. It needs to be policed.
    To some degree it does need to be policed but it is not the government's job to keep us safe.
    What do you think the police are for?

    (Although TBF that is a very good question with no good answer at the moment.)
    They do not have a Philip K Dick Minority Report method of investigating pre-crimes.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,508
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just backed Rishi for next PM and next Cons leader.

    Have heard rumblings that Liz is not long for this world of PMness.

    I note that on Wikipedia the only 2 people with shorter reigns as PM are listed as disputed* on the basis that they probably never were PM

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

    I suspect she is likely to last less time than George Canning (she has to manage another 3 months to get to that date),
    The same person who told me mid-leadership contest that she was going to be a disaster has put it at weeks with Rishi taking over.
    The first prediction is not particularly impressive, to be fair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be a controversial view but I don't think it should be down to the government to keep people "safe" online. Adults are free to make their own choices and parents have parental responsibility.

    Sorry, Pulp, I disagree. How exactly are parents supposed to keep their kids safe online?

    The answer is, they can’t.

    The world has now got to the point where the online/offline distinction has become irrelevant. I think todays youngsters understand this. Adults over ~30ish, still don’t get it. They think of the internet as a “thing” that can be turned off. It can’t.

    The laws need to be recalibrated for this new hybrid world, but I think it’s absolutely the case that government should keep us safe.

    The internet is the real world. It needs to be policed.
    To some degree it does need to be policed but it is not the government's job to keep us safe.
    What do you think the police are for?

    (Although TBF that is a very good question with no good answer at the moment.)
    They do not have a Philip K Dick Minority Report method of investigating pre-crimes.
    The whole idea of police patrols is to either stop crimes before they happen by scaring criminals off, or to catch criminals in the act.

    Admittedly, you don't see many patrols these days, or at least, you don't here, but that was their original raison d'etre.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    When you look at the fire raids on Tokyo in March 1945 which devastated more city and killed as many people as the 2 atom bombs it isn't clear that the Manhattan project "unequivocally ended a war". The Soviet invasion of Manchuria and American bombardment alongside the submarine war meant that Japan was conventionally defeated first. Maybe another couple of months longer, but done.
    I am far from convinced that was the case. Many in Japan's leadership thought they could fight on - which is why they did not admit defeat even after one nuclear blast. They were also keeping a large amount of material over for the invasion of the home islands. And what in the previous ten years of war (including China), gives you the impression that the Japanese were going to surrender?

    A sad little factoid:
    "During World War II, 1,506,000 Purple Heart medals were manufactured, many in anticipation of the estimated casualties resulting from the planned Allied invasion of Japan. By the end of the war, even accounting for medals lost, stolen, or wasted, nearly 500,000 remained. To the present date, the total combined American military casualties of the seventy years following the end of World War II—including the Korean and Vietnam Wars—have not exceeded that number. In 2000, there remained 120,000 Purple Heart medals in stock. The existing surplus allowed combat units in Iraq and Afghanistan to keep Purple Hearts on hand for immediate award to soldiers wounded in the field."

    *That* was the extent of casualties the US was expecting - more casualties than have occurred in all their wars since.
    There was an excellent book written by a historian in collaboration with one of the B29s that did the last conventional raid on Japan. Must dig it out…

    Essentially, after the second bomb, the war cabinet met. After everything - fire raids, atom bombs, Russians invading Manchuria, the war cabinet was split 3-3

    Hirohito then intervened, citing the bomb. In particular the fact that the Americans had atomic bombs in production - rather just being able to make one every couple of years as some Japanese scientist had thought.

    This intervention kicked off a coup attempt which foundered when the last conventional B29!raid was spotted. In the Tokyo blackout (because it was thought to be another atomic bomb raid heading for Tokyo this time) the rebels couldn’t find and destroy the recording of surrender announcement.

    The Japanese peace terms that some were proposing were… interesting. One they proposed to the Soviets that they surrender, keep much of their conquests and join with the Soviets in another war with America, later. This was being read by the American cryptologists…..

    Yes, I read that too. It was only the Emperor switching sides to agree to surrender that brought the war to a close.
    There were proposals for the main island similar to those for Okinawa.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    When you look at the fire raids on Tokyo in March 1945 which devastated more city and killed as many people as the 2 atom bombs it isn't clear that the Manhattan project "unequivocally ended a war". The Soviet invasion of Manchuria and American bombardment alongside the submarine war meant that Japan was conventionally defeated first. Maybe another couple of months longer, but done.
    As you say by mid 1945 Japan was a defeated country walking, the near destruction of its merchant capability arguably the most devastating blow. Ironically the 2 A bombs may have given the Japanese government & Hirohito an off ramp. Their devastating effects were something that couldn't be resisted by sending in kids with sharpened sticks & grannies with dynamite belts which would have been part of the response to an Allied invasion.
    I utterly agree that Japan in mid 1945 was a 'defeated country walking'. But it was not a defeated country walking that was willing to surrender: and that was what was needed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Bloody hilarious that Nadine appears to be contemplating bringing down the government…
    … over the cancelled C4 sale.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,643
    edited October 3
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just backed Rishi for next PM and next Cons leader.

    Have heard rumblings that Liz is not long for this world of PMness.

    I note that on Wikipedia the only 2 people with shorter reigns as PM are listed as disputed* on the basis that they probably never were PM

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

    I suspect she is likely to last less time than George Canning (she has to manage another 3 months to get to that date),
    The same person who told me mid-leadership contest that she was going to be a disaster has put it at weeks with Rishi taking over.
    The first prediction is not particularly impressive, to be fair.
    what can I say - they are a high up in the Cons party they can only call what's put in front of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    If true, this is a slight change of position by Russia:

    "Kremlin spokesman: Russia to consult locals on 'borders' of annexed Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
    Russian authorities are "consulting with the local population" to define the "borders" of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, said Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov."

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1576913370842030080

    However, it's also b/s. If they got these 'altered' borders, within a few years they'll be saying that the residents of the Ukrainian sides need 'protecting'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    The Swedish Coast Guard is reporting that while the larger Nord Stream 2 leak in Danish waters has stopped, the smaller one in Swedish waters has increased in size.

    They currently have no explanation for this.

    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1576898667117543424
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323
    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    No. The guy who posted that is calm. The sources quoted seem positively chilled. You, on the other hand, consider it a virtue to crap yourself at every opportunity and encourage other to do the same. FFS man, grow a pair, you live in Camden, you'll not have enough time to know what hit you before you're vapourised. You remind me of Sundance while Butch is trying to pursade him to jump off the cliff, balking because of his fear of swimming. "The fall'll probably kill ya!". If this kicks off Threads style then you'll die, and die quickly, so why bother worrying? It's not as if there's any money to be made on the outcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    Leon said:

    The Ukrainian boffins have debunked the Ukrainian boffins - on UFOs

    https://twitter.com/mickwest/status/1576925108165218304?s=46&t=-o1LlzAPODZdbIpCh9U1Lg

    Still some debate on Twitter tho

    Good lord - the surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.

    Russia's bigger worry would be China seeing that it's nuclear arsenal is a paper tiger. There's nothing else stopping them taking a vast swathe of Mother Russia that would make the losses to Ukraine look like a garden boundary dispute....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    No. The guy who posted that is calm. The sources quoted seem positively chilled. You, on the other hand, consider it a virtue to crap yourself at every opportunity and encourage other to do the same. FFS man, grow a pair, you live in Camden, you'll not have enough time to know what hit you before you're vapourised. You remind me of Sundance while Butch is trying to pursade him to jump off the cliff, balking because of his fear of swimming. "The fall'll probably kill ya!". If this kicks off Threads style then you'll die, and die quickly, so why bother worrying? It's not as if there's any money to be made on the outcome.
    I confess, I do it partly because I like winding you up. I can at least get some pleasure out of Armageddon

    Also: it’s politically interesting, to say the least. And we are a politics forum
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
    Their track record is not as good as (say) the US's, but given the time they spend at sea, and the insane complexity of nuclear submarines, the safety of even Russian submarines is amazing. Even the loss of Kursk was not to do with the sub itself, but a fault in a torpedo (it can be argued that the fact the entire ship was not gutted by the explosions shows the strength of the Kursk's design).

    I bet every American submariner makes a prayer to Admiral Rickover each night. ;)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    A few people have argued that HIMARS is the wonder weapon that has won this war.

    I don't think it's the weapon, but how it has been used. Russia had plenty of long-range precision munitions, but apart from a few ammunition dumps and fuel depots, they've mostly thrown them away against civilian targets. They've failed to make any dent in the flow of weapons across western Ukraine from Poland. Meanwhile Ukraine has used HIMARS to take apart Russian logistics and command & control.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Nigelb said:

    The Swedish Coast Guard is reporting that while the larger Nord Stream 2 leak in Danish waters has stopped, the smaller one in Swedish waters has increased in size.

    They currently have no explanation for this.

    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1576898667117543424

    AI drones, operated by aliens?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537

    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    Now that is worrying. Dr Strangelove-type risk games and escalatory military planning, even if if unsourced bluster only, so far.
    Yes.

    It’s an off the record discussion with Newsweek, but it tells us that US intelligence believes the risk of Putin going nuclear is appreciable.

    It’s the right strategy.
    Putin needs to know that if he goes nuclear, he will die.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
    Relative to the Kremlin, yes.

    Shows how bad it is I guess.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,742
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
    If there’s a global thermonuclear conflict, getting cash out of the ATM is going to be well down the list of concerns
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Pulpstar said:

    Has everyone forgotten how incompetent the plotting was against Boris ??

    Lessons. Have. Been. Learned.

    (The not very reassuring line trotted out by politicians!)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    Now that is worrying. Dr Strangelove-type risk games and escalatory military planning, even if if unsourced bluster only, so far.
    Yes.

    It’s an off the record discussion with Newsweek, but it tells us that US intelligence believes the risk of Putin going nuclear is appreciable.

    It’s the right strategy.
    Putin needs to know that if he goes nuclear, he will die.

    And the Pentagon put it out there deliberately. To scare him. Newsweek is not obscure

    So the fear in Washington is real

    I can see the logic but there is a risk it will push an unstable man closer to the edge. I hope someone is offering a carrot as well as the stick. Retreat and make peace and have a safe, luxurious retirement in Sochi. Or the Seychelles

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,114
    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
    Their track record is not as good as (say) the US's, but given the time they spend at sea, and the insane complexity of nuclear submarines, the safety of even Russian submarines is amazing. Even the loss of Kursk was not to do with the sub itself, but a fault in a torpedo (it can be argued that the fact the entire ship was not gutted by the explosions shows the strength of the Kursk's design).

    I bet every American submariner makes a prayer to Admiral Rickover each night. ;)
    There’s also the danger from the crew - who are likely less loyal to him than his usual security teams.
    All sorts of accidents can happen in confined spaces…. where tables are smaller than normal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    edited October 3
    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee could now have been destroyed, too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited October 3

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    A few people have argued that HIMARS is the wonder weapon that has won this war.

    I don't think it's the weapon, but how it has been used. Russia had plenty of long-range precision munitions, but apart from a few ammunition dumps and fuel depots, they've mostly thrown them away against civilian targets. They've failed to make any dent in the flow of weapons across western Ukraine from Poland. Meanwhile Ukraine has used HIMARS to take apart Russian logistics and command & control.
    HIMARS has destroyed the Russian method of waging war, especially against small nations. Obliterate everything ahead at maximum range of artillery. Capture the smouldering remains. Move 10 km forward. Repeat ad nauseum.

    Except HIMARS has longer range and greater accuracy = Russia fooked....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,974

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    A few people have argued that HIMARS is the wonder weapon that has won this war.

    I don't think it's the weapon, but how it has been used. Russia had plenty of long-range precision munitions, but apart from a few ammunition dumps and fuel depots, they've mostly thrown them away against civilian targets. They've failed to make any dent in the flow of weapons across western Ukraine from Poland. Meanwhile Ukraine has used HIMARS to take apart Russian logistics and command & control.
    I think it's at least two factors:

    *) Those Russia precision long-distance missiles are mega-expensive. Himars is less expensive. This has obvious advantages in terms of the numbers you can field. Kalibr (allegedly) cost $6.5 million each. A full Himars launch (medium range) is just $1 million.

    *) Precision artillery/missiles is essentially useless without precision targeting. There's a whole aspect of this war that we're not seeing, where Ukraine is getting accurate intelligence on the location of Russian assets. This will be coming from western intelligence (e.g. satellites/spyplanes), assets on the ground reporting in (brave people...), and Ukrainian's own aerial intelligence (drones, etc).

    I think Russia has been hampered by (relatively) few stocks of precision missiles, which they have burnt through quickly, and also a lack of intelligence of militarily-useful targets (hence going back to form and hitting civilian infrastructure).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,114


    forwards...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323
    12 months ago we were taking the piss out of Putin's efforts to avoid catching Covid by staying at least 12 feet away from everyone he met.

    Now we're saying that he's reckless enough to start a nuclear war.

    The two don't chime to me. But I suppose he may have changed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
    If there’s a global thermonuclear conflict, getting cash out of the ATM is going to be well down the list of concerns
    https://youtu.be/gcXM6tfe9YM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    Have they just seen the exit poll?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    This is why I never went into politics, you get into trouble for speaking the truth.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    Have they just seen the exit poll?
    Kwazi is watching a different game of tennis to the others.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
    Their track record is not as good as (say) the US's, but given the time they spend at sea, and the insane complexity of nuclear submarines, the safety of even Russian submarines is amazing. Even the loss of Kursk was not to do with the sub itself, but a fault in a torpedo (it can be argued that the fact the entire ship was not gutted by the explosions shows the strength of the Kursk's design).

    I bet every American submariner makes a prayer to Admiral Rickover each night. ;)
    There’s also the danger from the crew - who are likely less loyal to him than his usual security teams.
    All sorts of accidents can happen in confined spaces…. where tables are smaller than normal.
    Subs do have the advantage of not having windows or balconies of course - the nemesis of many a Russian....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited October 3

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    Probably.

    Russia has had a long history of announcing all kinds of commando comics war winning weapons and technologies and then not actually building them. Or turning out to be a lot less than claimed. All the way back to the USSR.

    A favourite was the sub launched SAM - which would destroy all NATO ASW aircraft.

    Which turned out to be a shoulder launched SAM which could be fired by a man on the sail, when running on the surface….
    TBF the manufacturers of the UK Blowpipe were offering the UK equivalent at one time. THough that was at least on a rotating mount.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/6894/have-submarine-launched-anti-aircraft-missiles-finally-come-of-age
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,114
    In a quarter of a century of covering party conferences I can’t remember a car crash like this, or a prime minister whose authority drained so fast. The speed of her decline is dizzying, as if someone had fast-forwarded the film straight to the big fight scene at the end; within the space of a week, she has lost the confidence of her MPs, the markets and the country. From abroad, we’re now viewed with the rubbernecking fascination the tabloids once reserved for Kerry Katona or Britney Spears in mid-breakdown. Is Britain … all right? Our friends are worried for us. And all the time, real money is draining from real pockets, alarmingly fast.

    and anyway here's the actual column on why this isn't the kind of problem you can just U-turn out of https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/03/humiliated-liz-truss-office-power-rebel-mps-whip-hand
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136
    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    Quite a sizeable part of my family come from Birmingham area. I think most of them would agree with his assessment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    No. The guy who posted that is calm. The sources quoted seem positively chilled. You, on the other hand, consider it a virtue to crap yourself at every opportunity and encourage other to do the same. FFS man, grow a pair, you live in Camden, you'll not have enough time to know what hit you before you're vapourised. You remind me of Sundance while Butch is trying to pursade him to jump off the cliff, balking because of his fear of swimming. "The fall'll probably kill ya!". If this kicks off Threads style then you'll die, and die quickly, so why bother worrying? It's not as if there's any money to be made on the outcome.
    I confess, I do it partly because I like winding you up. I can at least get some pleasure out of Armageddon

    Also: it’s politically interesting, to say the least. And we are a politics forum
    Trouble with nuclear Armageddon is there is no "he who laughs last". Which is shit for trolling.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,485
    edited October 3

    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    This is why I never went into politics, you get into trouble for speaking the truth.
    I suspect he's in trouble mainly because he suggested Birmingham's "dumpness" could be attributed to it having one of the highest Muslim population's in Britain, if you follow the thread.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
    How badly?
    If the government is polling at, say, 30%, is that worse than they were going into 2019?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The direct American threat on Putin’s life is *interesting*

    Of course, if he feels he is doomed anyway it won’t make much difference. And he must be close to that state of mind

    Putin was already paranoid about the threat to his life. Reports he spends time on a submarine, as it is one of the few places he felt safe. There was also the report of the attempt on his vehicle.

    He has cause to worry.
    He feels safe on a Russian sub ?
    Their track record is not as good as (say) the US's, but given the time they spend at sea, and the insane complexity of nuclear submarines, the safety of even Russian submarines is amazing. Even the loss of Kursk was not to do with the sub itself, but a fault in a torpedo (it can be argued that the fact the entire ship was not gutted by the explosions shows the strength of the Kursk's design).

    I bet every American submariner makes a prayer to Admiral Rickover each night. ;)
    A prayer to The Kindly Old Gentleman would probably be like a prayer to Crom….
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437

    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    This is why I never went into politics, you get into trouble for speaking the truth.
    I suspect he's in trouble mainly because he suggested Birmingham's "dumpness" could be attributed to it having one of the highest Muslim population's in Britain, if you follow the thread.
    Ah I see.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    DougSeal said:

    12 months ago we were taking the piss out of Putin's efforts to avoid catching Covid by staying at least 12 feet away from everyone he met.

    Now we're saying that he's reckless enough to start a nuclear war.

    The two don't chime to me. But I suppose he may have changed.

    Which is why he needs to understand the nuclear option is a personal threat to him.

    And any “off-ramp” needs to ensure his personal safety.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    And where is KK's UK-Ukraine badge? Liz has one.

    He's going to sell them out, isn't he? All the cuts are going to come from the MOD budget.

    Bastard.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee could now have been destroyed, too.

    I'm pretty sure the when the when the seats are up for election in 2023 were last contested the Conservatives had, if not disastrous results, something very close to it.
    It seems unlikely therefore that the election results next spring will, comparatively speaking, be that bad.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Seems I’m not the only one who is “uncalm”


    No. The guy who posted that is calm. The sources quoted seem positively chilled. You, on the other hand, consider it a virtue to crap yourself at every opportunity and encourage other to do the same. FFS man, grow a pair, you live in Camden, you'll not have enough time to know what hit you before you're vapourised. You remind me of Sundance while Butch is trying to pursade him to jump off the cliff, balking because of his fear of swimming. "The fall'll probably kill ya!". If this kicks off Threads style then you'll die, and die quickly, so why bother worrying? It's not as if there's any money to be made on the outcome.
    I confess, I do it partly because I like winding you up. I can at least get some pleasure out of Armageddon

    Also: it’s politically interesting, to say the least. And we are a politics forum
    Trouble with nuclear Armageddon is there is no "he who laughs last". Which is shit for trolling.
    He who laughs last laughs shortest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
    How badly?
    If the government is polling at, say, 30%, is that worse than they were going into 2019?
    Tories polled 28%

    As did Labour, LDs were on 19%

    Tories lost 1,330 seats, Labour lost 84 seats, and the yellow peril gained 704 seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
    If there’s a global thermonuclear conflict, getting cash out of the ATM is going to be well down the list of concerns
    You could actually respond to what I actually wrote

    I’m talking about the economic consequences of just 1 tactical nuke

    We are under-estimating them. It would cause global chaos and probably Depression
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
    How badly?
    If the government is polling at, say, 30%, is that worse than they were going into 2019?
    2019 was 28 Con, 28 Lab, 19 LDs
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,114
    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1576914330876272642

    Russ Jones
    @RussInCheshire
    ·
    1h
    12. Thatcher famously said “The lady’s not for turning”

    13. Truss has done 8 U-turns since she began her leadership campaign

    14. She rotates so often, she’d be more useful if you painted “MOT” on one side, “TEST” on the other, and stuck her on the pavement outside Kwik Fit
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    edited October 3

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
    How badly?
    If the government is polling at, say, 30%, is that worse than they were going into 2019?
    2019 was 28 Con, 28 Lab, 19 LDs
    Thanks.

    Seems reasonable though to believe that Tories will stay at that level while LD holds and Labour moves up a lot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,437
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1

    Time to wheel out my legendary modesty klaxon.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 877
    In 1945, Japanese soldiers may have been unwilling to surrender even after the two atomic bombs were dropped because they were expecting Japanese cities to be treated as they had treated Manila:
    "The Manila massacre (Filipino: Pagpatay sa Maynila or Masaker sa Maynila), also called the Rape of Manila (Filipino: Paggahasa ng Maynila), involved atrocities committed against Filipino civilians in the City of Manila, the capital of the Philippines, by Japanese troops during the Battle of Manila (3 February 1945 – 3 March 1945) which occurred during World War II. The total number of civilians who were killed was at least 100,000."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_massacre
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,002

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1

    Time to wheel out my legendary modesty klaxon.
    Hopefully by Halloween rather than Christmas!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476
    edited October 3

    The Lib Dems have a truly atrocious retention rate. Only 35% (!) of 2019 Lib Dem voters are intending on sticking with the party next time round. Surely this is terrific news for Lab Maj buyers?

    2019 Labour voters’ VI:

    Lab 85%
    Grn 8%
    LD 4%
    SNP 1%
    Con 1%

    2019 Conservative voters’ VI:

    Con 57%
    Lab 27%
    Ref 8%
    Grn 2%
    LD 2%
    oth 3%

    2019 Liberal Democrat voters’ VI:

    Lab 57%
    LD 35%
    Grn 5%
    SNP 2%
    Con 1%

    That is one great leap of faith for the1% that have jumped from Corbyn Labour to Libertarian Trussian Conservatives.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136

    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    This is why I never went into politics, you get into trouble for speaking the truth.
    I suspect he's in trouble mainly because he suggested Birmingham's "dumpness" could be attributed to it having one of the highest Muslim population's in Britain, if you follow the thread.
    Ouch. Well someone ought to tell the racist silly twat that Birmingham was even more of a dump before any Muslims settled there.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1

    Time to wheel out my legendary modesty klaxon.
    Got to say - the most difficult task here is getting a new PM in place without a membership vote occurring...

    It's also probably the only reason Liz hasn't already gone...

    Although it's great watching a U-turn designed to halt her decline, actually hasten it...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
    If there’s a global thermonuclear conflict, getting cash out of the ATM is going to be well down the list of concerns
    You could actually respond to what I actually wrote

    I’m talking about the economic consequences of just 1 tactical nuke

    We are under-estimating them. It would cause global chaos and probably Depression
    You, on the other hand would be elated.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,238
    Not easy to find the equivalent retention rates for Scottish voters, but this is YouGov’s last prop



    The Lib Dems have a truly atrocious retention rate. Only 35% (!) of 2019 Lib Dem voters are intending on sticking with the party next time round. Surely this is terrific news for Lab Maj buyers?

    2019 Labour voters’ VI:

    Lab 85%
    Grn 8%
    LD 4%
    SNP 1%
    Con 1%

    2019 Conservative voters’ VI:

    Con 57%
    Lab 27%
    Ref 8%
    Grn 2%
    LD 2%
    oth 3%

    2019 Liberal Democrat voters’ VI:

    Lab 57%
    LD 35%
    Grn 5%
    SNP 2%
    Con 1%

    That is one great leap of faith for the1% that have jumped from Corbyn Labour to Libertarian Trussian Conservatives.
    BJO & Co?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    Fukuyama might be correct.

    We could be a week away from twin routs in Kherson and Svatove, with c. 25,000 men Russians being lost.

    This could be the worst week for Russia so far.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476

    Not easy to find the equivalent retention rates for Scottish voters, but this is YouGov’s last prop



    The Lib Dems have a truly atrocious retention rate. Only 35% (!) of 2019 Lib Dem voters are intending on sticking with the party next time round. Surely this is terrific news for Lab Maj buyers?

    2019 Labour voters’ VI:

    Lab 85%
    Grn 8%
    LD 4%
    SNP 1%
    Con 1%

    2019 Conservative voters’ VI:

    Con 57%
    Lab 27%
    Ref 8%
    Grn 2%
    LD 2%
    oth 3%

    2019 Liberal Democrat voters’ VI:

    Lab 57%
    LD 35%
    Grn 5%
    SNP 2%
    Con 1%

    That is one great leap of faith for the1% that have jumped from Corbyn Labour to Libertarian Trussian Conservatives.
    BJO & Co?
    It crossed my mind too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear. In any event there is no intelligence that a nuclear launch is being prepared. The hardliners who are shouting about a nuclear strike are those who previously demanded the disastrous mobilization and have therefore been rather discredited. There is no equipment or even food for the recruits, and many are simply being left in the open air in cities across Russia, with no logistics to get them anywhere near the front. As noted over the weekend, at least three hundred thousand young men have left the country and that number could be higher. In as far as anyone can tell, support for the regime is evaporating, but the quiescent Russians still seem a long way from an Iranian style rebellion. On the other hand, the situation in Belarus is getting more and more tense, and if Lukashenka complies with Putin´s "request" to join the war, he may face the collapse of his government.

    It is clear that Russia no longer has anything like the number of warheads that the were thought to possess, and while NATO will clearly not want to take a nuclear risk, there is a possibility that Russia would not want to take the risk either since it would probably involve the complete destruction of the Russian armed forces by NATO and quite likely sufficient counter strikes to eliminate the Russian nuclear forces too.

    Meanwhile the defeat at Lyman is now looking like a turning point. Russian casualties were extremely high, to the point that there are no reserves to plug the holes in the Russian lines, and a disorderly retreat is now becoming a rout. After Savatove and Kreminna, we could be looking at the collapse of the whole North Luhansk front. Meanwhile Russian sources have confirmed a major Ukrainian breakthrough close to Kherson, where about 25,000 Russian troops are trapped. If Kherson falls, there is basically nothing between the Ukrainians and Crimea.

    So from the Russian point of view, there is no good news. The army is in an increasingly bad way, and there is no game changer in sight. Few governments survive such a self-inflicted disaster and the regime is now under increasingly severe strain. There is an Indian summer in Ukraine at the moment, but when the cold finally comes, the view here is that the ill equipped Russian forces will face a logistics collapse that will seal their fate.


    “FWIW the feeling in the Baltic is that Russia is not yet ready to go nuclear”

    A brilliant contender for

    LEAST REASSURING OPENING LINE TO A PB COMMENT EVER WRITTEN
    Not to worry you, but…

    Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
    https://twitter.com/sovietologist/status/1576731532802154501

    You might not want to read the thread.
    Worrying, but actually, my worry is more the economic effects of just 1 tactical nuke

    The world economy is on a cliff edge. A nuclear explosion would tip us into chaos and despair. Banks would fail (with no bail outs). Etc
    If there’s a global thermonuclear conflict, getting cash out of the ATM is going to be well down the list of concerns
    You could actually respond to what I actually wrote

    I’m talking about the economic consequences of just 1 tactical nuke

    We are under-estimating them. It would cause global chaos and probably Depression
    The bottom would fall out of the market for flint dildos.

    Or possibly, depending on other effects, flint dildos would fall out of bottoms in the market.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:



    forwards...

    I feel very sorry for them. Failures as public and spectacular as this are rare. It must be crushing

    My prediction is that Truss goes after disastrous locals next May.

    I’m curious about predictions that she would go sooner, though, especially if emanating from inside the Tory Party.

    One assumes that any plotters are smart enough to know that they need to get through Boris’s suspension by the Privileges Committee.

    Having said that, following the logic above, Truss - who previously might have (tacitly) supported Boris’s suspension - might now be against it.

    Then again, any influence she might have had over the Committee might now have been destroyed, too.

    Next year's locals will be pretty good for the Tories because these seats were last contested in 2019 when the Tories did very badly.
    How badly?
    If the government is polling at, say, 30%, is that worse than they were going into 2019?
    2019 was 28 Con, 28 Lab, 19 LDs
    Thanks.

    Seems reasonable though to believe that Tories will stay at that level while LD holds and Labour moves up a lot.
    There's a lot of road to cover between now and the 2023 locals. Including surviving Armageddon.

    Never has Harold Wilson's "a week is a long time in politics" ever felt to true.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    Aha. A second positive about this administration.

    Cheers for spotting this, Mike.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    I’m not sure a nuclear escalation creates a worldwide depression.

    Possibly even the reverse if it hastens Putin’s end.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Bleak but kinda impressive


    RUSSIAN RAPPER DIES BY SUICIDE ...
    After Being Drafted In War He Opposed

    https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/03/russian-rapper-suicide-walkie-ukraine-war/
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1

    It’s the only way they’re likely to get anything through parliament without having to call a GE

    Though I guess that also risks alienating the Truss loyalists, though I don’t suppose that’s all that many
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Fukuyama might be correct.

    We could be a week away from twin routs in Kherson and Svatove, with c. 25,000 men Russians being lost.

    This could be the worst week for Russia so far.

    However - can I just remind people the city of Kherson is on the northern bank of the river. It's recapture does not, contrary to what has been said, necessarily open the way to Crimea or even the nuclear plant towards Zaporizhzhia. It will, however, shut the way to Odessa for Russia and probably see another huge chunk of the Russian army taken prisoner (God knows where the Ukrainians will put them).

    The real story of Kherson is it should never have fallen in the first place. It was handed over, intact, by a Russian collaborator who didn't even try to blow up the bridges to stop a Russian advance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    I’m not sure a nuclear escalation creates a worldwide depression.

    Possibly even the reverse if it hastens Putin’s end.

    lol. You think a NUCLEAR BOMB GOING OFF will stabilise markets and make people keen to invest?

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334

    Pulpstar said:

    Has everyone forgotten how incompetent the plotting was against Boris ??

    Lessons. Have. Been. Learned.

    (The not very reassuring line trotted out by politicians!)
    Must. Try. Harder.
  • Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    If this war is evidence that Russia cannot co-ordinate a large scale conventional means assault on NATO, then surely it cannot also risk being shown to be unable to conduct a sustained nuclear assault either. Makes you think...
    Logistics isn't such a pain with strategic nuclear, and successfully "sustaining" means over a much shorter time period.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Leon said:

    I’m not sure a nuclear escalation creates a worldwide depression.

    Possibly even the reverse if it hastens Putin’s end.

    lol. You think a NUCLEAR BOMB GOING OFF will stabilise markets and make people keen to invest?

    Well, it did the last time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,875
    edited October 3
    Leon said:

    Bleak but kinda impressive


    RUSSIAN RAPPER DIES BY SUICIDE ...
    After Being Drafted In War He Opposed

    https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/03/russian-rapper-suicide-walkie-ukraine-war/

    Did he fall/jump/get pushed out of a window though?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Fukuyama might be correct.

    We could be a week away from twin routs in Kherson and Svatove, with c. 25,000 men Russians being lost.

    This could be the worst week for Russia so far.

    There has been talk for a fortnight that Kherson has been discussing surrender, vetoed by Putin. Unlike Lyman, there is no "run away!" option in Kherson. Just "Swim!!". The best troops Russia has are pretty much stuck there with pretty much the best kit Russia has. You can see why Putin might just say "No." Ukraine getting 15-20 battle groups of POWs and their weaponry is not survivable for Putin.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Bleak but kinda impressive


    RUSSIAN RAPPER DIES BY SUICIDE ...
    After Being Drafted In War He Opposed

    https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/03/russian-rapper-suicide-walkie-ukraine-war/

    Did he fall out of a window though?
    He actually did, it seems

    😶
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    Hmmm.

    We already knew Mussolini was on the payroll of British Intelligence in 1917. Now a new book provides evidence the UK actively backed his 1922 march on Rome and seizure of power
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-secretly-backed-mussolinis-march-on-rome-pzsr2hpb8
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Leon said:

    I’m not sure a nuclear escalation creates a worldwide depression.

    Possibly even the reverse if it hastens Putin’s end.

    lol. You think a NUCLEAR BOMB GOING OFF will stabilise markets and make people keen to invest?

    Just hope Liz and KK don't......
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136
    As I make a reasonable claim of being the first to refer to Johnson as Bozo, can I also lay claim to nick-naming Kwarteng as "Kami" for flying his suicide mission on behalf of Emperor Hirotrusso?

    PS. Sorry if that post competes for PBs least modest. Obviously doesnt come near to @TheScreamingEagles or @Leon in the humility department.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited October 3

    Scott_xP said:

    Young Tory chair Daniel Grainger has quit his role temporarily after calling Birmingham 'a dump'

    I'm told he's stepped down pending an investigation..

    @Young_Tories have distanced themselves from his remarks

    https://twitter.com/alethaadu/status/1576937343348793344

    This is why I never went into politics, you get into trouble for speaking the truth.
    I suspect he's in trouble mainly because he suggested Birmingham's "dumpness" could be attributed to it having one of the highest Muslim population's in Britain, if you follow the thread.
    Ouch. Well someone ought to tell the racist silly twat that Birmingham was even more of a dump before any Muslims settled there.
    That is also true.

    In fact, Birmingham is ugly as any city in the world and it's as badly planned as a Special Military Operation, but it does have it's good points as well. Some decent civic centres, great shops, and a bustle and energy that's quite uplifting in its own way. It feels very much better now than even thirty years ago.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I’m not sure a nuclear escalation creates a worldwide depression.

    Possibly even the reverse if it hastens Putin’s end.

    lol. You think a NUCLEAR BOMB GOING OFF will stabilise markets and make people keen to invest?

    Well, it did the last time.
    It definitely won't this time though. (They won't launch malfunctioning nukes from Moscow)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Ay oop


    “NATO intelligence warned about a possible test of a nuclear supertorpedo by Russia - media eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/10/3…

    https://twitter.com/europeanpravda/status/1576861325921488896?s=46&t=2ZXxxv0h6dvCJ23RQMDBsw

    Putin's at the Wunderwaffe stage. You may not have noticed, but the vast majority of Russia's stronkiest of stronk weapons - the T14 Armata, the Sukhoi Su-57 etc - have not been seen in Ukraine, despite them being Russia's wonder weapons.

    You may ask yourself why, and the answers are obvious despite their having been around for a fair few years:

    They don't work very well.

    Russia's test of a nuclear-powered missile a few years back did not go swimmingly:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

    Is the Manhattan Project the only time a 'wonder weapon' has actually unequivocally ended a war?
    When you look at the fire raids on Tokyo in March 1945 which devastated more city and killed as many people as the 2 atom bombs it isn't clear that the Manhattan project "unequivocally ended a war". The Soviet invasion of Manchuria and American bombardment alongside the submarine war meant that Japan was conventionally defeated first. Maybe another couple of months longer, but done.
    I am far from convinced that was the case. Many in Japan's leadership thought they could fight on - which is why they did not admit defeat even after one nuclear blast. They were also keeping a large amount of material over for the invasion of the home islands. And what in the previous ten years of war (including China), gives you the impression that the Japanese were going to surrender?

    A sad little factoid:
    "During World War II, 1,506,000 Purple Heart medals were manufactured, many in anticipation of the estimated casualties resulting from the planned Allied invasion of Japan. By the end of the war, even accounting for medals lost, stolen, or wasted, nearly 500,000 remained. To the present date, the total combined American military casualties of the seventy years following the end of World War II—including the Korean and Vietnam Wars—have not exceeded that number. In 2000, there remained 120,000 Purple Heart medals in stock. The existing surplus allowed combat units in Iraq and Afghanistan to keep Purple Hearts on hand for immediate award to soldiers wounded in the field."

    *That* was the extent of casualties the US was expecting - more casualties than have occurred in all their wars since.
    Plus the Japanese still had over 1m men under arms in China and SE Asia. Japan were going to lose, no question, but it was going to take years not months.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW Chopper's Politics Podcast newsletter

    Conservative MPs are now smelling blood in the water, with suggestions that Truss will be out by Christmas and a new PM appointed (not elected) by MPs.

    Subscribe: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432/photo/1

    It’s the only way they’re likely to get anything through parliament without having to call a GE

    Though I guess that also risks alienating the Truss loyalists, though I don’t suppose that’s all that many
    Sid and Doris Bonkers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,114
    A screeching u-turn, mutinous MPs taking back control and some in government speculating this is the beginning of the end.

    @SamCoatesSky: "The mood is much grimmer off-screen than it is on" https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1576944079455555586/video/1
This discussion has been closed.