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GE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com

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  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,983

    - ”What is significant about Opinium is that it was the top poster at the last election”

    Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.

    Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:

    SNP 45%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 6%
    oth 7%

    Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 8%
    oth 5%

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.

    Previously you've been on here lauding YouGov but deriding all other pollsters for failing to properly weight their Scottish subsamples.

    So it's worth recalling I think that YouGov poll with a 33% lead had a Scottish subsample as follows:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 38%
    SCon 10%
    SLD 2%
    oth 6%

    I'm sure that you noticed that. Did you post the result on here though, and if not, why not?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Do Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng fully comprehend the destruction they unleashed? The evidence is not encouraging | David Gauke https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/01/unless-ministers-listen-treasury-truth-to-power-will-not-prevent-further-crises?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Us: "I guess the old Reaganomics guys will be into what Truss is up to."

    David Stockman, 75: "I don't know what these people are smoking."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eafaf966-40d5-11ed-bf78-197f09550dd1?shareToken=cd2d4048d66f403a75105af1d115f2fd
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    I see Truss on on the BBC still saying it’s all Putins fault
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    remember when the government insisted that Sinn Fein people be overdubbed by actors?

    Would be helpful if they did the same for Mistress Truss.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    The state of MAGA.

    "Democrats want Republicans dead, and they've already started the killings" -- Marjorie Taylor Greene
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1576315475084345344

    This, in front of cheering crowd.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220
    edited October 2
    Only good option for Tories is for the 1922 to instal Sunak as an interim leader until the next election on the grounds that he had most support among MPs - and that he has been proved right, of course.

    That would at least allow some damage limitation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025
    edited October 2

    Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240

    I'm skeptical of that, and I think she is pre-empting a remote possibility.

    The Lend-Lease for Ukraine Act was passed unanimously in the Senate, and 417-10 in the House. Virtually no opposition visible from Republicans.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022

    I think it runs throughout 2022 and 2023 - plus the latest package of arms was laid out as a long term two year strategy.

    Has something changed significantly?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    I see Truss on on the BBC still saying it’s all Putins fault

    ‘I think people need to understand’
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403
    edited October 2
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    He had a very good week. It wasn’t luck that he was perfectly positioned to capitalise on Truss’ error. He’s been carefully moving the chess pieces for some time and appears to have found the language that resonates.
    My guess is that this has been helped recently by their new ad agency who have done what good ad agencies do. Find out who the target market is and what they like /don't like/ will / wont accept.

    I was not keen on two of his big four decisions but in hindsight they've proved to be effective. I thought it a bad idea to close off rejoining the EU and and an even worse idea saying no to a deal with the SNP. But for several subtle reasons they were smart decisions
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    pigeon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
    It could be worse than 97 at this rate.

    There are lessons to be learned from history here. Look at what happened to the old Liberal Party a hundred years ago. The Conservative Party, as a major political force, has no divine right to exist.

    And then there's the Canada 93 precedent to be considered as well.

    If it becomes obvious that the Conservative Party cares about nothing and nobody except for higher rate taxpayers, then what reason is there for anyone other than higher rate taxpayers to endorse it? And that's the end of the Conservative Party.
    With FPTP you'd still need a different opposition party to take its place as the party best able to stop Labour. Can the Lib Dems become that party? Would a new Farage publicity vehicle do so?

    I think it's easier to contemplate Labour winning a >200 seat majority then it is to see the Tories be supplanted as a major party. Any party that wanted to replace the Tories would need a minimum of 60 seats at the next GE, so that they at least became the third party in the Commons ahead of the SNP.

    For the Lib Dems they'd need to execute a deft move whereby they switched from attracting Labour tactical votes to unseat Tories, to attracting natural Tory votes to stop Labour. It's not impossible, but it would be difficult. They'd have to start being proud of their time in Coalition with Cameron for starters...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    CD13 said:

    What do the Tories need?

    A leader who looks confident rather than needy. It's not a female thing, the Baltic and East European ones look impressive. Rishi is unlucky in being too rich. Wallace could out-Starmer Keir himself.

    A revival of Corbyn. Never going to happen, not now he's tied to Putin's coat tails.

    A miracle.

    Events, dear boy, do happen. So a change of government in Russia and a gradual return to normality.

    Do the Trussites want normality, or do they see the abnormality and the spending required for COVID/Ukraine/energy as the perfect excuse to institute their hardline libertarian policies, slashing the state?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    As a aside, why do the BBC bother with sitting in front of a window looking out over such an ordinary drab view? I assume they're in Salford, great, but that's not a 'view' worth sharing.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    Taz said:

    I see Truss on on the BBC still saying it’s all Putins fault

    ‘I think people need to understand’
    It’s phrased as a comms issue, but she doesn’t seem to accept her budget has had a direct consequence on borrowing costs

    She keeps mentioning the energy package oddly
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “People are not that upset with the budget… we are angry because they are sh*t and cannot communicate the strategy so the public feel frightened instead of reassured” - MP who backed Truss.

    “Things will blow over” - ally.

    My piece ahead of conference👇


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748

    "But I think it's a radical approach that was well-trailed. People have got to come to terms with that.
    "If anyone was surprised that this was a radical financial statement, they shouldn't be."


    “Well-trailed” to the Conservative Party and it’s selectorate. Why this individual thought the country’s population spent the summer following a debate addressed only to the fee-paying members of the Tory Party is beyond me. Even if those that were following it outside his party were not being addressed directly.

    The manifesto that won over Tory members would not have made it in a general election. As I’ve said before, separating the choice of PM from the choice of the majority of the Commons is breaking the constitution. While there’s nothing unlawful about this manner of choosing the PM, its dangerous, for everyone, to assume the views of the Tory party membership reflect the views of the electorate.
    It’s not unconstitutional at all. All you need to be PM is to command a majority of the house. How that person is identified is irrelevant.

    It’s a bad system with significant weaknesses, but not “breaking the constitution”
    I think what Doug likely meant by that, and I inclined to have some sympathy with the view, is that so radical a change of government - both personnel and policies - without recourse to the electorate, does indeed risk breaking a constitution which says “no problem”.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    It is no criticism of her at all. She is remarkably successful, I wish I was that successful and earnt so much and paid so much tax. It is a criticism of the bizarrely warped priorities of the government that we can afford to give a billionaire who cannot spend the money she has an extra £20m a year whilst simultaneously saying we cannot afford to feed our children or heat their schools.
    But it directly negative attention at one person who is doing the right thing

    I’d be far more critical of those billionaires who run off to Monaco at the first opportunity
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    As a aside, why do the BBC bother with sitting in front of a window looking out over such an ordinary drab view? I assume they're in Salford, great, but that's not a 'view' worth sharing.

    Careful now. Can't say Brum is a dump - gets you sent home...
  • darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    Those of us who earn just over 100k a year have a marginal tax rate of 60% up to 125k per year income, due to the rather strange loss of the personal tax allowance of 1 pound for every 2 pounds income. If they were really concerned about high marginal tax rates for quite rich people they could have looked at this and kept the 45% rate.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    This is a bizarre interview. Truss keeps saying that she doesn't agree with the question. And then is trying to pin LK down with her left arm which is being waved across her body like its being operated by Frank Oz via a stick.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    Example?
    I don’t want to return to ultra deferential interviews, but there must be a happy medium out there where politicians give extended answers and interviewers let them talk. Frankly the way the interviewers behave nowadays would be rude in a conversation down the pub.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Foxy said:

    Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240

    The US Republicans are Putins most useful idiots.
    Not all of them.
    The votes for supporting Ukraine were bipartisan.

    Many of the MAGA crowd, of course, support Putin.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    Good morning

    Listening to Jake Berry interviewed by Sophy Ridge just now is an utter embarrassment and cringe worthy

    He admitted to the meeting with hedge fund managers immediately after Kwarteng speech and is trying to defend the indefensible

    The conservative party is on the edge of extinction
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    It is no criticism of her at all. She is remarkably successful, I wish I was that successful and earnt so much and paid so much tax. It is a criticism of the bizarrely warped priorities of the government that we can afford to give a billionaire who cannot spend the money she has an extra £20m a year whilst simultaneously saying we cannot afford to feed our children or heat their schools.
    But it directly negative attention at one person who is doing the right thing

    I’d be far more critical of those billionaires who run off to Monaco at the first opportunity
    There is nothing negative about her earning lots and paying lots of tax. Perhaps you think there is? I think it is impressive, but still do not think she should get an extra £20m tax cut.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225
    She's an appalling woman. How on Earth did the Tories come to put her in charge?

    I'm off to walk the dogs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    As a aside, why do the BBC bother with sitting in front of a window looking out over such an ordinary drab view? I assume they're in Salford, great, but that's not a 'view' worth sharing.

    What do you expect to see out of a Salford window? Sydney Opera House, perhaps? The Hanging Gardens of Babylon? Herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically?
    Herds of people in rags pushing their possessions in shopping trolleys, when the season comes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025

    pigeon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
    It could be worse than 97 at this rate.

    There are lessons to be learned from history here. Look at what happened to the old Liberal Party a hundred years ago. The Conservative Party, as a major political force, has no divine right to exist.

    And then there's the Canada 93 precedent to be considered as well.

    If it becomes obvious that the Conservative Party cares about nothing and nobody except for higher rate taxpayers, then what reason is there for anyone other than higher rate taxpayers to endorse it? And that's the end of the Conservative Party.
    With FPTP you'd still need a different opposition party to take its place as the party best able to stop Labour. Can the Lib Dems become that party? Would a new Farage publicity vehicle do so?

    I think it's easier to contemplate Labour winning a >200 seat majority then it is to see the Tories be supplanted as a major party. Any party that wanted to replace the Tories would need a minimum of 60 seats at the next GE, so that they at least became the third party in the Commons ahead of the SNP.

    For the Lib Dems they'd need to execute a deft move whereby they switched from attracting Labour tactical votes to unseat Tories, to attracting natural Tory votes to stop Labour. It's not impossible, but it would be difficult. They'd have to start being proud of their time in Coalition with Cameron for starters...
    I'd say that would need a Cleggite type Lib Dem party.

    Whilst Davey was an Orange Booker - indeed wrote a chapter about Liberalism and Localism - there are still imo far too many in the LDs allergic to the legacy of the Coalition for that to happen.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    How do you get a figure of 70%?!

    If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    When did the London marathon start in early October. Always had this mentally down as an April event or so
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Oh FFS. She's refusing to answer the question about cutting public services. Instead she is *smirking* whilst saying "value for money".

    LK: "I keep having to ask you if you are going to cut public services and you are refusing to give an answer. Which strongly suggests that you are".
    LT: "No thats not it" then proceeds to restate all the reasons why she is cutting public services.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,838
    When the mini-budget was announced, I thought it was political suicide.

    Now I think more specifically it is very slow and very inexpert seppuku.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    .
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    45% is not 70%.
    If you’re referring to the marginal rate at £100k, then Truss didn’t do anything about it.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    Those of us who earn just over 100k a year have a marginal tax rate of 60% up to 125k per year income, due to the rather strange loss of the personal tax allowance of 1 pound for every 2 pounds income. If they were really concerned about high marginal tax rates for quite rich people they could have looked at this and kept the 45% rate.
    Which has been one of the main arguments on here since the announcement. Cost in theory is the same but it would encourage people not to switch to 4 day weeks or play other games to avoid hitting the limit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,875
    edited October 2
    Nigelb said:

    The state of MAGA.

    "Democrats want Republicans dead, and they've already started the killings" -- Marjorie Taylor Greene
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1576315475084345344

    This, in front of cheering crowd.

    I love the Democrats' badge:

    'we're not perfect, but they're nuts'
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    She is doomed. Public service cuts and benefit cuts
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,025

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    How do you get a figure of 70%?!

    If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.

    That analysis falls down slightly because the top threshold was 45%, not 70%.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    STOP WITH THE FRIGGIN ENERGY PACKAGE
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    She is doomed. Public service cuts and benefit cuts

    Except the triple lock (!)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    Scott_xP said:
    They'd need someone who wants to stick around. Not be seen as a caretaker keeping the seat warm til after the election. Not a winning election cry. Vote for me. Then I'll let my party members pick Liz Truss mk2 to take over in 6 months.

  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    edited October 2
    Scott_xP said:
    The good reason is that the Tory party rule book makes it virtually impossible because if there are 2 final candidates it has to go to a members vote..

    And it’s the members vote that is the problem here - and it’s completely wrong in a parliamentary democracy.

    We elect our MP so it should then be the MPs who determine who leads them - no one else was elected to have a say…

    Not in power members can have a say, whilst in power sorry but it should be left solely to MPs to determine who the PM is…
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    And again.

    Refusing to commit to raising departmental budgets in line with inflation.

    Refusing to commit to raising welfare payments in line with inflation.

    And smirking whilst doing it. "I've committed to the triple lock" on pensions - but won't commit to anything else. So we know that she is taking an axe to public spending and the welfare state. Whilst smirking.

    E.L.E.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    edited October 2
    MattW said:

    Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240

    I'm skeptical of that, and I think she is pre-empting a remote possibility.

    The Lend-Lease for Ukraine Act was passed unanimously in the Senate, and 417-10 in the House. Virtually no opposition visible from Republicans.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022

    I think it runs throughout 2022 and 2023 - plus the latest package of arms was laid out as a long term two year strategy.

    Has something changed significantly?
    The Lend-Lease Act was passed in May. The last financial package of assistance for Ukraine passed by a much narrower vote, something like 230-201. There has been a lot of rhetoric from those on the American Right about the large sums of money being wasted on Ukraine, the inevitability of Russian victory. One angle they are pushing is detailed oversight of the spending, which would be a way to block the spending without coming out explicitly in opposition to it.

    If you look at the tweet I linked, it shows CPAC referring to the oblasts recently annexed by Russia as "Ukrainian-occupied" - this is the sort of language that would enable them to walk away from supporting Ukraine. I think the stakes in the mid-terms are very high, and this at a time when the British government's ability to borrow some extra billions to help plug the gap has been damaged.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    How do you get a figure of 70%?!

    If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.

    She will be more motivated by making b365 better than the likes of Flutter, GVC, William Hill and the Asian bookies, not how much she earns personally.

    If we really wanted to incentivise entrepreneurship there is far more that can be done with grants, employment allowance, business rates and giving business owners better access to mortgages at the bottom end that would make far more difference than giving big tax cuts to billionaires.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Chris said:

    When the mini-budget was announced, I thought it was political suicide.

    Now I think more specifically it is very slow and very inexpert seppuku.

    That’s why, with seppuku, it’s traditional to have an assistant ready to chop your head off to finish things quickly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113

    Scott_xP said:
    They'd need someone who wants to stick around. Not be seen as a caretaker keeping the seat warm til after the election. Not a winning election cry. Vote for me. Then I'll let my party members pick Liz Truss mk2 to take over in 6 months.

    A caretaker is exactly what they need.

    Truss is killing the party
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,654
    The chancellor was allowed to make the decision about the 45% rate without telling anyone? Sorry, what?

    Doesn’t that back up his private champagne hedge fund meeting
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    She's now deploying both hands. With all the fingers extended at LK. Like Palpatine. Whilst she says that the cabinet didn't discuss 45p as "it was a decision made by the Chancellor"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    Pulpstar said:

    When did the London marathon start in early October. Always had this mentally down as an April event or so

    Covid. Back to April next year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Florida Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott urged Senate leaders for money to rebuild state after Hurricane Ian.

    Then when the vote came, ⁦@SenRickScott⁩ voted against the funds and ⁦
    @marcorubio didn’t show up for the vote.

    https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1576265121692794882

    Come election time they’ll slam the administration for profligacy.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448

    Good morning one and all!

    And in spite of all this, the Conservative election results last Thursday were quite reasonable.
    I suppose one thing in Liz's favour is that her predecessor is not attending the conference. Apparently!

    Tories. Good for NIMBYism in your local parish. Good for nothing in Westminster.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    How do you get a figure of 70%?!

    If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.

    Not everyone thinks the same. I know people who would rather not pay 60% plus of the hourly wage to the government for working extra hours. Not everyone is driven by earning as much as possible.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    The chancellor was allowed to make the decision about the 45% rate without telling anyone? Sorry, what?

    Doesn’t that back up his private champagne hedge fund meeting

    Which is why so much of the press are reporting the suspected insider trading.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 25
    Nightclub bouncer Jake Berry on Sky saying Tories increased their vote in two by-elections in his patch same day as bad news/polls. Strange but true...I always think the red wall's harder work for SKS than the South.
    He looks pretty scary but the interviewer was holding her own.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Scott_xP said:

    Us: "I guess the old Reaganomics guys will be into what Truss is up to."

    David Stockman, 75: "I don't know what these people are smoking."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eafaf966-40d5-11ed-bf78-197f09550dd1?shareToken=cd2d4048d66f403a75105af1d115f2fd

    Stockman was the most vociferous critic of Reaganomics. He wanted to slash the state.
  • beefqueenbeefqueen Posts: 1

    As a aside, why do the BBC bother with sitting in front of a window looking out over such an ordinary drab view? I assume they're in Salford, great, but that's not a 'view' worth sharing.

    The view is of Birmingham. They’re in the BBC West Midlands studios in The Mailbox, hence the view.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Pulpstar said:

    When did the London marathon start in early October. Always had this mentally down as an April event or so

    Plague. Might go back to April next year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Fun fact: Rubio and Scott may not have voted for Hurricane Ian relief for Florida, but they both showed up to vote yea for Aileen Cannon’s judicial confirmation.
    https://twitter.com/sharpkmcm/status/1576339112415879168
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Truss throws down gauntlet to MPs on 45p: “It’s part of an overall package of making our tax system simpler and lower”

    As chairman says those that vote it down will be deselected…

    But admits it wasn’t discussed at Cabinet

    !

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576481439016636416
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454

    The chancellor was allowed to make the decision about the 45% rate without telling anyone? Sorry, what?

    Doesn’t that back up his private champagne hedge fund meeting

    Which is why so much of the press are reporting the suspected insider trading.
    I saw it more as emphasising his hands on the decision in case it needs cutting free tbh.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    God, she is awful though. I have no bulge in my trousers for Starmer, but dear god the country needs him now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss throws down gauntlet to MPs on 45p: “It’s part of an overall package of making our tax system simpler and lower”

    As chairman says those that vote it down will be deselected…

    But admits it wasn’t discussed at Cabinet

    !

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576481439016636416

    "But the British people have registered what matters. That their pension pots were brought to the edge of extinction. That their mortgage repayments are about to explode. That their wages are set to be eroded by soaring inflation. That public services are about to be cut. That welfare benefits are on the brink of being slashed."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11271169/DAN-HODGES-Liz-Truss-does-not-change-course-Wednesday-shell-consign-Tories-oblivion.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Truss will not confirm benefits to rise with inflation but pensions will

    The reduction in 45% rate was not done with cabinet approval

    Truss will not review it

    This is shocking and the conservatives must replace her now

    Did Gordon Brown or George Osborne open their budgets to Cabinet discussion?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    Truss will not confirm benefits to rise with inflation but pensions will

    The reduction in 45% rate was not done with cabinet approval

    Truss will not review it

    This is shocking and the conservatives must replace her now

    Remember that this is "boring" because we're just "bashing the Tories".

    The only people bashing the Tories are the Tories. This is politically insane. Literally insane. LK is now backed up all the way to gently suggesting to LT that political optics matter to people Truss has only committed to the triple lock and refused to commit to protecting anyone else.

    And Truss just laughs at her. "I don't control the Chancellor's diary" giggle giggle.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,660
    Betfair has Truss to go this year still at 6.6/7.6.

    If there are no concrete moves soon I might lay a bit more. Currently flat if she stays, ahead a bit if she goes.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    Pulpstar said:

    When did the London marathon start in early October. Always had this mentally down as an April event or so

    It returns to April next year I think.

    The 2021 event was moved to allow it to go ahead, likewise the 2022 event was moved to provide organisation time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Truss has clear direction, govt majority & largely protected by party rules from a coup: a solid fortress from which to hold off a siege until the economy starts to lift. And when it does, the public, media and backbenches may regard her differently. At least, that’s the plan.

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1576481630562455552
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss throws down gauntlet to MPs on 45p: “It’s part of an overall package of making our tax system simpler and lower”

    As chairman says those that vote it down will be deselected…

    But admits it wasn’t discussed at Cabinet

    !

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576481439016636416

    If she deselects enough them she will have no majority and a GE is forced upon her.

    Bring it on Liz. Can't wait.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    And again.

    Refusing to commit to raising departmental budgets in line with inflation.

    Refusing to commit to raising welfare payments in line with inflation.

    And smirking whilst doing it. "I've committed to the triple lock" on pensions - but won't commit to anything else. So we know that she is taking an axe to public spending and the welfare state. Whilst smirking.

    E.L.E.

    My local Tory presently has a majority of about 18,000 and previously survived 1997 with room to spare.

    For the first time ever this week I think there's a realistic chance that he could be turfed out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,403

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    No to rejoining the EU. No to a deal with the SNP. Were his big two both of which I thought were barking. Next proposing 'Great British Energy' and earlier his announcement that he would resign if he was found to have broken lockdown rules
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    How do you get a figure of 70%?!

    If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.

    Not everyone thinks the same. I know people who would rather not pay 60% plus of the hourly wage to the government for working extra hours. Not everyone is driven by earning as much as possible.
    I know people who would rather not do an extra hour even if they get 100% of their wage. We’re all different.

    Also, who’s paying 60%? darkage says 70%, you say 60%, but the top rate of tax was 45%.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    There is no doubt that the hyperbolic responses of our press have made things very difficult for Truss. We had the collapse of sterling....where the Pound finished the week at a higher level against the dollar, we had the horrendous recession...which turned out not to be a recession at all because the economy was still growing... we had the collapse of our pension industry...which turned out to be a relatively simple and predictable cash flow issue that even the Governor of the BoE could fix.

    But we also had the self inflicted stupidity of tax cuts for the wealthy at a time when huge unfunded spending commitments were being made on fuel, we had a tone deaf statement and then confused silence by both Kwarteng and Truss for much of the week and we have this obstinate refusal to bring forward the OBR report which will be needed to assuage the City (a further problem is that it will only do this if the government announces lots of unpopular cuts in spending which, in turn, will make the promises on extra growth seem laughable).

    The old saying is that you only get one chance to make a first impression. Truss arguably had 2, before HMQ and after it. But she has blown both, making no attempt to bring the country together in difficult times but choosing to be divisive and incoherent. I think she cannot recover from this but whether the Tories would be better or worse off trying yet again to find a competent leader is hard to say. That is what the Tories really have to debate at their conference and its not going to be a fun decision.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,745

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    Those of us who earn just over 100k a year have a marginal tax rate of 60% up to 125k per year income, due to the rather strange loss of the personal tax allowance of 1 pound for every 2 pounds income. If they were really concerned about high marginal tax rates for quite rich people they could have looked at this and kept the 45% rate.
    Or done both.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    edited October 2
    Nigelb said:

    .

    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
    45% is not 70%.
    If you’re referring to the marginal rate at £100k, then Truss didn’t do anything about it.
    And @darkage is talking bollocks anyway. I personally was lucky enough to go up through that marginal tax period during my final few years in employment (I'm nowhere near now just to be clear!).

    My pay was never about the number of hours I worked, of course, nor, directly, the amount of effort I put in - it was determined by the success or otherwise of the things I did and managed (and to be fair the vagaries of the stock market due to share options).

    Does @darkage think at some point that I had the debate with myself over whether I should bother making such a success of the projects I delivered in case it took me into that 70% marginal band?

    It just does not work that way.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Truss now saying the reason the OBR forecast wasn't published was because they didn't have time to make one. "that isn't true" points out LK. Says she won't publish the forecast as "it isn't ready".

    But it is ready. According to the OBR. So when she says "it isn't ready" its clear that "ready" means "saying what we want it to say"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    She's now deploying both hands. With all the fingers extended at LK. Like Palpatine. Whilst she says that the cabinet didn't discuss 45p as "it was a decision made by the Chancellor"

    It really is amazing that in the short period since the mini budget we are in complete agreement about the disaster that is Truss and Kwarteng

    It seems she has united the vast majority of us on this forum against the pair of them and the wider county in demanding their resignation
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    she should get an adviser with the guts to suggest she tries to look like she gives a flying fuck.

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1576482683315625989
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    DavidL said:

    There is no doubt that the hyperbolic responses of our press have made things very difficult for Truss. We had the collapse of sterling....where the Pound finished the week at a higher level against the dollar, we had the horrendous recession...which turned out not to be a recession at all because the economy was still growing... we had the collapse of our pension industry...which turned out to be a relatively simple and predictable cash flow issue that even the Governor of the BoE could fix.

    But we also had the self inflicted stupidity of tax cuts for the wealthy at a time when huge unfunded spending commitments were being made on fuel, we had a tone deaf statement and then confused silence by both Kwarteng and Truss for much of the week and we have this obstinate refusal to bring forward the OBR report which will be needed to assuage the City (a further problem is that it will only do this if the government announces lots of unpopular cuts in spending which, in turn, will make the promises on extra growth seem laughable).

    The old saying is that you only get one chance to make a first impression. Truss arguably had 2, before HMQ and after it. But she has blown both, making no attempt to bring the country together in difficult times but choosing to be divisive and incoherent. I think she cannot recover from this but whether the Tories would be better or worse off trying yet again to find a competent leader is hard to say. That is what the Tories really have to debate at their conference and its not going to be a fun decision.

    Are you watching this? The last time I saw a leader interview this bad it was Jezbollah on the morning of his failed putch against his deputy leader.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    She sunk - in denial.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    I cannot stress enough how UNPOPULAR slashing taxes and cutting spending on public services is. It is an utterly toxic combination. Here is the latest British Social Attitudes survey. It's a 6% position ... https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1576480862857592833/photo/1
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    No to rejoining the EU. No to a deal with the SNP. Were his big two both of which I thought were barking. Next proposing 'Great British Energy' and earlier his announcement that he would resign if he was found to have broken lockdown rules
    Moving to deny, insofar as possible, the Brexit and Sturgeon sticks to the Conservatives was entirely sensible. If we're going to join the EU again then that's a generational project, and Scottish Nationalism is toxic waste south of the border.

    None of this does anything to stop closer co-operation with the EU after an election, and there are bound to be informal negotiations with the SNP if Labour needs them for a Parliamentary majority. Though after this week Starmer will doubtless be hoping that he won't have any such difficulties.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    “I understand that people are struggling… to make sense of anything I say or do but they should blame Putin” The @trussliz interview with @bbclaurak redux
    https://twitter.com/catherine_mayer/status/1576483554183110656/photo/1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,700
    Leaving aside Truss’s policies, her presentation is terrible. She has absolutely nothing going for her.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Perhaps the best question of all from @bbclaurak
    “How many people voted for your plan?”

    Truss pauses then replies: “What do you mean by that?”
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Truss will not confirm benefits to rise with inflation but pensions will

    The reduction in 45% rate was not done with cabinet approval

    Truss will not review it

    This is shocking and the conservatives must replace her now

    Did Gordon Brown or George Osborne open their budgets to Cabinet discussion?
    I am surprised that any conservative can support her divisive and unfair mini budget

    And Gove just now putting in the boot over unfunded tax cuts and rewarding bankers
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    She's now deploying both hands. With all the fingers extended at LK. Like Palpatine. Whilst she says that the cabinet didn't discuss 45p as "it was a decision made by the Chancellor"

    It really is amazing that in the short period since the mini budget we are in complete agreement about the disaster that is Truss and Kwarteng

    It seems she has united the vast majority of us on this forum against the pair of them and the wider county in demanding their resignation
    This isn't even "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". There is right and wrong. Decency. Standards. And she is debasing all of those.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,220

    She's an appalling woman. How on Earth did the Tories come to put her in charge?

    I'm off to walk the dogs.

    20 mins late. Punctuality Peter!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    tlg86 said:

    Leaving aside Truss’s policies, her presentation is terrible. She has absolutely nothing going for her.

    She claims her plans have a comms problem.

    She is the comms problem.

    And her plans are shit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    edited October 2

    Betfair has Truss to go this year still at 6.6/7.6.

    If there are no concrete moves soon I might lay a bit more. Currently flat if she stays, ahead a bit if she goes.

    She'll cling on - as a lame duck. It's too embarrassing for the Tories to change just yet.

    In 12 months' time though she is surely out.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,644
    Wow. Gove sticking the knife in!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Gove sounds far more like a PM than Truss.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    edited October 2
    Scott_xP said:

    Perhaps the best question of all from @bbclaurak
    “How many people voted for your plan?”

    Truss pauses then replies: “What do you mean by that?”

    Not even the cabinet! She has the support of 10% of MPs. Out this year is a stonking bet, she does not have the confidence of the commons or the skills to regain it.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The good reason is that the Tory party rule book makes it virtually impossible because if there are 2 final candidates it has to go to a members vote..

    And it’s the members vote that is the problem here - and it’s completely wrong in a parliamentary democracy.

    We elect our MP so it should then be the MPs who determine who leads them - no one else was elected to have a say…

    Not in power members can have a say, whilst in power sorry but it should be left solely to MPs to determine who the PM is…
    They could agree that the runner up needs to do a Leadsom. Final round of MPs voting for the final 2 first if needed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    No to rejoining the EU. No to a deal with the SNP. Were his big two both of which I thought were barking. Next proposing 'Great British Energy' and earlier his announcement that he would resign if he was found to have broken lockdown rules
    I think, with glorious hindsight, that his decision to raise the stakes over Beergate, was rather brilliant. Who would want to be the person responsible for bringing down the leader of the opposing over the equivalent of a parking fine?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    The brutal reality that the Tories need to grasp very quickly is that Truss doesn’t have a problem that she needs to fix. Truss is the problem. In short, they have made a mistake.

    They need to get rid. The longer they leave it. The worse it will be.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Scott_xP said:

    “I understand that people are struggling… to make sense of anything I say or do but they should blame Putin” The @trussliz interview with @bbclaurak redux
    https://twitter.com/catherine_mayer/status/1576483554183110656/photo/1

    Yeah, that's what we're going to get this Winter, isn't it? The last Labour Government was now so long ago that not even this bunch of clowns feels it can get away with blaming Gordon Brown, so Vladimir Putin it is. Fuel poverty, food banks, benefit cuts to pay for tax cuts for millionaires, all the fault of Vladimir Putin. What a load of horseshit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236

    DavidL said:

    There is no doubt that the hyperbolic responses of our press have made things very difficult for Truss. We had the collapse of sterling....where the Pound finished the week at a higher level against the dollar, we had the horrendous recession...which turned out not to be a recession at all because the economy was still growing... we had the collapse of our pension industry...which turned out to be a relatively simple and predictable cash flow issue that even the Governor of the BoE could fix.

    But we also had the self inflicted stupidity of tax cuts for the wealthy at a time when huge unfunded spending commitments were being made on fuel, we had a tone deaf statement and then confused silence by both Kwarteng and Truss for much of the week and we have this obstinate refusal to bring forward the OBR report which will be needed to assuage the City (a further problem is that it will only do this if the government announces lots of unpopular cuts in spending which, in turn, will make the promises on extra growth seem laughable).

    The old saying is that you only get one chance to make a first impression. Truss arguably had 2, before HMQ and after it. But she has blown both, making no attempt to bring the country together in difficult times but choosing to be divisive and incoherent. I think she cannot recover from this but whether the Tories would be better or worse off trying yet again to find a competent leader is hard to say. That is what the Tories really have to debate at their conference and its not going to be a fun decision.

    Are you watching this? The last time I saw a leader interview this bad it was Jezbollah on the morning of his failed putch against his deputy leader.
    Nah, I don't really watch TV on a Sunday morning, the wife likes a bit of quiet. But her presentational skills really should have made Tory members pause. Its like IDS all over again but with the added problem that she is in power.
This discussion has been closed.