Are we about to see an actual split in the Tory party?
Sunak leads a group who walk away and sit as separate group?
The fact that this is now not utterly inconceivable is incredible.
It was referred to by one of the few remaining Trussites earlier as "boring" and hyperbole".
Boys and girls, we are politics geeks. We all have different perspectives and experiences and backgrounds, but we are students of politics. Enthusiasts. And this, THIS is politics. And modern history. Grab yer popcorn and enjoy.
One of the most interesting bits of the Liz Truss interview… she doesn’t want to say ‘yes’ when asked if she’s cutting public spending… b/c she didn’t pitch that in her leadership campaign… yet that is the message her government is now trying to send to markets… tricky. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576492660738510851
Following the Gove comments, it's pretty clear that Truss is not going to get her budget through the Commons without significant and humiliating changes that will make her a lame duck. So, her choice is PM in name only or not PM at all.
My guess is that they'll postpone abolition of the 45% for 2 years, and most critics will declare victory, for now.
That would be the worst possible outcome for the Conservatives. They’ll definitely go for it.
Look again at the LK car crash. She said again and again that she is right, that this is required. She clearly knows they are taking an axe to public services and the welfare state. And in refusing to deny it whilst committing to the triple lock, she effectively confirmed it.
So why didn't she just say "we are going to have to do unpopular things but its ok"? Isn't she master of the universe with a clear personal mandate?
She can't say "it'll look bad politically" with everything else she is doing. Especially when she says she doesn't care about the optics or being unpopular. So why not just say it?
Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.
I think it runs throughout 2022 and 2023 - plus the latest package of arms was laid out as a long term two year strategy.
Has something changed significantly?
The Lend-Lease Act was passed in May. The last financial package of assistance for Ukraine passed by a much narrower vote, something like 230-201. There has been a lot of rhetoric from those on the American Right about the large sums of money being wasted on Ukraine, the inevitability of Russian victory. One angle they are pushing is detailed oversight of the spending, which would be a way to block the spending without coming out explicitly in opposition to it.
If you look at the tweet I linked, it shows CPAC referring to the oblasts recently annexed by Russia as "Ukrainian-occupied" - this is the sort of language that would enable them to walk away from supporting Ukraine. I think the stakes in the mid-terms are very high, and this at a time when the British government's ability to borrow some extra billions to help plug the gap has been damaged.
Hmmm. I did look at her tweet - which is why I replied as I did.
The last package pivots the support from short term to long-term, and the vote was on a wider piece of legislation than support for Ukraine. Plus lend-lease authority for Mr Biden runs until March 2024 (if I have that right).
Also - suggesting that she was "pre-empting" the likelihood of US support for Ukraine drying up is attributing motives to her post which i don't think exist. The purpose of the post was purely and simply how ludicrously extreme the MAGA faction of the Republican party have become. It's all part of the campaign to try and bring to the attention of potential GOP voters quite the sort of thing they are voting for.
Are we about to see an actual split in the Tory party?
Sunak leads a group who walk away and sit as separate group?
The fact that this is now not utterly inconceivable is incredible.
Didn’t happen over Brexit where the emotions were as intense or more so, so I can’t see it.
A breakaway of sufficient size to split the party would still be divided on other issues including the EU, social issues (anti-wokeism etc) and like or dislike of Boris.
It’s irrelevant whether Truss pulls the 45% tax change . The issue is that she thought this was acceptable to begin with . As for Truss blaming this on no 11. Are we supposed to believe no 11 do what they like with no input from no 10 .
And in spite of all this, the Conservative election results last Thursday were quite reasonable. I suppose one thing in Liz's favour is that her predecessor is not attending the conference. Apparently!
There are three ways Boris might screw things up this autumn. The Privileges Committee might rule against him; his resignation honours list might be stuffed full of tax-dodging, baby-eating cronies; Boris might give a television interview that goes down just as badly as LizT's.
Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.
I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.
Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
Christmas gets earlier every year.
Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.
But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.
As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.
There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
How do you get a figure of 70%?!
If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.
Not everyone thinks the same. I know people who would rather not pay 60% plus of the hourly wage to the government for working extra hours. Not everyone is driven by earning as much as possible.
I know people who would rather not do an extra hour even if they get 100% of their wage. We’re all different.
Also, who’s paying 60%? darkage says 70%, you say 60%, but the top rate of tax was 45%.
Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.
I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.
Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
Christmas gets earlier every year.
Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.
But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.
As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.
There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
How do you get a figure of 70%?!
If earning an extra £1000 gets me an extra £300, then there is an incentive to earn more. Given how Denise Coates and others do earn more than the top threshold, clearly they think so too.
Not everyone thinks the same. I know people who would rather not pay 60% plus of the hourly wage to the government for working extra hours. Not everyone is driven by earning as much as possible.
I know people who would rather not do an extra hour even if they get 100% of their wage. We’re all different.
Also, who’s paying 60%? darkage says 70%, you say 60%, but the top rate of tax was 45%.
62% including NI between £105-125k
That would have been a more sensible change than reducing the 45p. I can only think that when the government is thinking about people on high salaries, it is not the £100-200k bracket, it is the £1-2m bracket.
She’s obviously been coached to speak very slowly and deliberately. She should sack those feckers for a start, it sounds like she’s recovering from a stroke.
She sounds like a moron trying to sound like what they think an intelligent person sounds like.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
I've had an idea this morning - assuming it gets in, sometime in its first term, or as a promise for a seond, Labour should well offer a referendum on rejoining the single market.
The script migt be :"You were sold an unclear and some would say false prospectus last time round. We will be straight with you and not sell unicorns this time. Do you want the benefits of higher economic growth as well as european free movement, which some might find more difficult, and others part of their own freedom, to return ? The choice is yours.
If the economy is still in the soup, yes would win easily. Hence probably better to try it sooner.
Why complicate things? See Teresa May and Social Care, for how not to win elections.
Look again at the LK car crash. She said again and again that she is right, that this is required. She clearly knows they are taking an axe to public services and the welfare state. And in refusing to deny it whilst committing to the triple lock, she effectively confirmed it.
So why didn't she just say "we are going to have to do unpopular things but its ok"? Isn't she master of the universe with a clear personal mandate?
She can't say "it'll look bad politically" with everything else she is doing. Especially when she says she doesn't care about the optics or being unpopular. So why not just say it?
As above, she didn't say it during the leadership campaign
And in spite of all this, the Conservative election results last Thursday were quite reasonable. I suppose one thing in Liz's favour is that her predecessor is not attending the conference. Apparently!
There are three ways Boris might screw things up this autumn. The Privileges Committee might rule against him; his resignation honours list might be stuffed full of tax-dodging, baby-eating cronies; Boris might give a television interview that goes down just as badly as LizT's.
The Privileges Committee thing could be extremely important. If it in effect removes the prospect of Johnson returning to power, it massively increases the likelyhood of a successful parliamentary coup to install a new leader (eg. Sunak) without the need to go to the members.
The fact that the Tory Party conference is happening only five miles away in Birmingham may have escaped many of the shoppers in West Bromwich, but they all had an opinion on Liz Truss and her first few weeks in office.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
So MPs vote to reject or 'amend' the 'non-budget'. What happens then?
Does the PM have to resign? Does the Chancellor have to resign? Does anyone ever have to resign any more? Do they just muddle on with the amended plan?
So 'rebel' Con MPs lose the whip and are deselected? If Truss doesn't make it to the next GE they'd be welcomed back anyway wouldn't they?
Do they mess this up so badly it ends up in a GE? Seems impossible but then you recall Liz Truss, yes Liz Truss, got to be PM!
I cannot stress enough how UNPOPULAR slashing taxes and cutting spending on public services is. It is an utterly toxic combination. Here is the latest British Social Attitudes survey. It's a 6% position ... https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1576480862857592833/photo/1
The damage was done by Andrew Neil decades back when he imported the American "tax and spend" meme to British journalism. In America, there is a large constituency for whom public spending is anathema. In Britain, even if we do not want to pay taxes, we largely support the public sector.
But this reflects a reality disconnect between people and the facts of public services and spending today.
When you talk about public services and cutting public spending people fail to realise that public services and spending are a voracious monster that will eat more and more of our GDP in a manner that is becoming unsustainable. They take an ever-increasing proportion of our GDP just to stand still and we are not even willing to let them stand still. We place more and more demands on them without dealing with the issue of how to pay for them and, at some point, something has to give.
The problem is that, even amongst those who recognise the issues, there is no agreement, either due to ideology or vested interest over what areas have to be constrained or reduced. And as the polling quoted by Scott shows, those of us who are even willing to accept there need to be cuts, let along agree on what form they should take, are a small minority.
This country, this society, in its current form is utterly fucked if people don't start to show some understanding.
Truss and her idiocy doesn't help this because she is an ideolog as well and doesn't understand that you can only make these changes through discussion, education and compromise.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
This might sound controversial but does Zelensky in fact want Putin to lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon .
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
Three reasons why I would think not.
1. How sure could he be that China and others will say enough? What if they don't? 2. Depending on the details of the bomb, and how it is detonated, the long-term effects could be devastating. Ukraine already has to deal with the Chernobyl exclusion zone. They do not need more areas of their country turned into contaminated wastelands. 3. Ukraine are now winning this war. Of course, they would want to win as quickly as possible, but they are not in such a desperate situation that they would need to contemplate such a costly trade.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
This might sound controversial but does Zelensky in fact want Putin to lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon .
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
What difference would China ending support make? It might be symbolic but in terms of impact on the ground, would be like Spain condemning the Axis in ww2.
Interesting snippet in the Observers editorial this morning, at the end of a piece about cuts to the BBC World Service.
"In this penny-pinching context, the reported 45% increase in spending on Foreign Office credit cards while Truss was foreign secretary requires explanation. Payments included £10,000 at Fortnum & Mason and thousands more spent on posh restaurants and beauty products. What was Truss thinking? Here is another job for the Office for Budget Responsibility."
Re; a Labour referendum on single market membership, it could be a couple of years in. Argued as a question of democracy and clarity compared to the last one, with the government being honest that there were overall greater benefits as well as drawbacks for some, and which would take away a lot of the labour fear, against a backdrop also of economic crisis it would probably win easily.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
He's a has-been commenting at the fag-end of a doomed administration. The Conservative Party is imploding and, collectively, it has no credibility left at all. Labour has nothing left to fear from any of that lot.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
I knew someone who was admitted to hospital with a prolapsed disc. Not life threatening.
My daughter when aged 8, broke her arm and had to be taken to hospital. Not life threatening.
Lots of conditions require treatment, but let you eat tea and biscuits and still require medical intervention.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
I knew someone who was admitted to hospital with a prolapsed disc. Not life threatening.
My daughter when aged 8, broke her arm and had to be taken to hospital. Not life threatening.
Lots of conditions require treatment, but let you eat tea and biscuits and still require medical intervention.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
First rule of politics: learn to count.
Its the likes of T May, George Eustace etc who sit in the party mainstream that Truss needs to win.... Gove is the tip of the iceberg..
While it is fun watching commentators trying to take away Liz Trusses bed curtains, "rings and all", and clearly the Conservatives are flirting with an extinction level event, things in the outside world are also running on.
The Latvian elections have seen the likely re-election of the centre-right Prime Minister, while the leading moderate Russian party has been reduced to single figures, as Latvians reject any Russian influence and some Russians dropped the party after its criticisms of the Kremlin. It ought to be straightforward to form a coalition, but the reemergence of Aivars Lembergs, a corrupt Latvian minigarch, is not great news for those who wanted to clean up Latvian politics. It will also be a more polarised politics in the coming years. Nevertheless at least the outlook is stable for the forthcoming 14th Latvian Seima. It also shows that even Russian soft power is disintegrating.
In Estonia more sanctions have been applied, and as of December 31st no Russian gas may be imported from Russia. In fact Estonia stopped taking gas from Russia last April, but there are still some licenses to permit transit and imports, but these will now be suspended. Germany should take note, the truth is that Russia can no longer be taken to be a reliable supplier, and the destruction of the Nordstream system, almost certainly by Russia itself, should now force Berlin to cease its weak and foolish attempts to engage with the regime.
The dramatic plunge of Russian state finances shows the sanctions pressure is increasingly severe, and the loss of so many economically active men, is accelerating the state of collapse. The breakdown of aviation as the result of the theft of western Airbus and Boeing planes is also getting worse: there are few parts and no airworthiness certificates being issued. Even China is not permitting Russian planes to fly in their skies. Rail is suffering from similar problems as modern equipment has to be abandoned for lack of parts. The predicted impact of the sanctions has been massively magnified by a general boycott of Russia and the stunning incompetence of the decisions being taken by the Kremlin.
As for the course of the war itself, the fall of Lyman has been an unmitigated disaster for the Russians. The retreat developed into a rout and the casualty toll is very high. The UAF have advanced close to the centre of Kreminna, and another Russian force seems set to be flanked at Ribizhne, so both Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk are now exposed to the Ukrainian attack. Meanwhile the Kherson sector has also seen more progress. The fiasco of the mobilization has only created further confusion on the front line, but the defeated Russian units are some of the best in their regular army. The achievements of the UAF are remarkable, and there is a sense of expectation that a further Ukrainian breakthrough is coming.
So as we celebrate the political implosion of the Conservatives, we can also see progress in other fields too.
Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.
I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.
Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
Christmas gets earlier every year.
Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.
But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.
As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.
There are good arguments to do this type of tax cut. Once you get to 60-70% levels of marginal tax, there is no point in earning money by working, so people stop generating wealth this way. You are basically working for charitable purposes to support the British state, which is generally not something that motivates people. This all disincentivises work and productivity. Explain this to people, and they will get it. But Truss and Kwarteng are incapable of explaining it. The attempt to explain it (attending champagne receptions of hedge fund managers) seems like they are going for a Mandelson style approach which is politically suicidal.
45% is not 70%. If you’re referring to the marginal rate at £100k, then Truss didn’t do anything about it.
And @darkage is talking bollocks anyway. I personally was lucky enough to go up through that marginal tax period during my final few years in employment (I'm nowhere near now just to be clear!).
My pay was never about the number of hours I worked, of course, nor, directly, the amount of effort I put in - it was determined by the success or otherwise of the things I did and managed (and to be fair the vagaries of the stock market due to share options).
Does @darkage think at some point that I had the debate with myself over whether I should bother making such a success of the projects I delivered in case it took me into that 70% marginal band?
It just does not work that way.
Fair enough. People are different.
But if you are in Coates position, the company is paying 25% (potentially) in corporation tax, plus 39.35% in dividends. So that all adds up to 64.35% tax on income. That is in addition to all the VAT that you have potentially collected for the government.
So my question is, quite seriously, what is the point of doing anything if you take on all the risk yourself, and then give away 65% of the rewards to the government?
If I own a small, successful business, with low overheads, and can earn about 100K in a very tax efficient way (between dividends, SJPP contributions etc), whats the point of trying to grow beyond that?
I am as critical as everyone of Truss, but on this I think her instincts are correct.
Coates doesn't pay corporation tax. The corporation pays that. She is not taking on all the risk herself. The whole point of corporations, of limited liability, is that the company can go bankrupt without the individual having to pay.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
Sunak could quietly suggest those who voted for him in the leadership abstain on the Budget (that isn't actually a Budget anyway). That should also give some spine to those who voted for other non-Truss candidates. More than enough to sink the Budget - and the Chancellor.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
This might sound controversial but does Zelensky in fact want Putin to lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon .
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
What difference would China ending support make? It might be symbolic but in terms of impact on the ground, would be like Spain condemning the Axis in ww2.
Russia is reliant on trade with the developing and authoritarian states to salvage what's left of its economy. Peel off China and India, and it'll be reduced to a hermit kingdom. A giant Russian Orthodox Afghanistan. At some point even Putin's minions are liable to question the wisdom of being made to live out their rest of their lives in an impoverished shithole.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Slight problem of being enormously unpopular with the public.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
This was my hospital last week. Each ambulance was unable to unload and had a patient in the back.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
This was my hospital last week. Each ambulance was unable to unload and had a patient in the back.
I counted 24.
If you were in charge, what do you think would need to be done to resolve that?
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Slight problem of being enormously unpopular with the public.
Also occasional signs of a mid life crisis over last couple of years. The Tories really need steady and bland and someone to do a Major. Wallace. Or Starmer.....
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
There is an obvious answer to that - most people do not have the medical training to understand whether something is life threatening or not when a potentially serious situation presents itself. My grandmother used to get transient ischemic attacks - kind of mini strokes. She would sit in a chair exhibiting all the symptoms of a stroke and for obvious reasons - at least the first time it happened - we called an ambulance. By the time they got her to the hospital she was, to all intents and purposes, absolutely fine again. But we didn't know that would be the case and the recommendation is always to call an ambulance because if it is a stroke then the rapid diagnosis and treatment can have a massive impact on outcomes.
Our ambulance and A&E services should be able to cope with these sorts of situations. Currently they cannot.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
That’s an ambulance tied up for half a shift because A&E is full.
Given that it would require at most 1 member of staff to look after her in hospital it’s an expensive waste of resources…
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Why is the challenger so long in Brazil? Consistent, significant, poll leads yet 1.44 this morning?
Perhaps because of concerns Bolsonaro will refuse to accept the results and they’re not sure where that leads to especially if some of the armed services get involved .
This might sound controversial but does Zelensky in fact want Putin to lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon .
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
What difference would China ending support make? It might be symbolic but in terms of impact on the ground, would be like Spain condemning the Axis in ww2.
Germany had a fully developed advanced economy. Russia doesn't, they can hardly make anything and now they west has cut them off they need to buy what they need from China.
That said, I don't quite grant the premise. We don't really know how China would respond if Russia used nuclear weapons.
The OBR forecast is going to be dire. Can only be the reason she won’t publish it
The problem the Trussite loons have is that they think their plans will double the economic growth rate. But no credible person believes that and so the OBR forecast will show dire economic growth and dire public finances. The whole purpose of the OBR is to prevent the Treasury engaging in fantasy economic projections. I am guessing that Kwarteng is piling intense pressure on the OBR to come up with a friendlier set of forecasts, and if they won't then the government will pencil in some brutal and implausible spending cuts from FY25 onwards so that the forecasts show them balancing the books.
Except, according to the OBR's own forecast evaluation reports, their own record is dire.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
UTI which won't clear, nurse was concerned about infection spreading and leading to sepsis, which would have a high chance of being fatal.
Not every medical condition is either as trivial as a common cold or as serious as a cardiac arrest. Doesn't mean that some of those in between don't also require hospitalization. And the patient in this case is practically housebound and somewhat confused, it's not as if she could get to an acute hospital under her own steam and then wait however many hours or days on a chair in A&E to be seen and assessed.
The Government would doubtless like to wish away inconvenient sick old people like this, but as Therese Coffey will discover this Winter it ain't that simple.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Starmer is the man to save the Union . The SNP need Tories in charge so I agree a Labour win is bad news for them .
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
My guesstimate (see discussion with Robert Smithson early yesterday morning) is that approximately 8pp have shifted directly from SCon to SLab. (The SNP, SLD and Grn VI appear to be largely unchanged.)
If I am correct, we’d be looking at a Scottish seat distribution (new boundaries) of approximately:
If Starmer only manages 2 gains in Scotland then he must dig deep, deep into solid Con territory in southern England. Doable, but extraordinarily difficult.
She's an appalling woman. How on Earth did the Tories come to put her in charge?
I'm off to walk the dogs.
Cast your mind back to that first candidate debate and Truss was widely perceived to have been the worst performer out of the 8 by some way. She was but the members and MPs went ahead and made her PM anyway.
The Tories have the same dilemma as they had when they wanted to get rid of Johnson, they dithered because there was no obvious leader in waiting. Anyone the members choose is very likely to be about as popular as Truss with the voters. They are stuck with a dwindling field of hopeless Brexiteers. The fact they are even contemplating bringing back lying, lazy Boris says it all really.
This might sound controversial but does Zelensky in fact want Putin to lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon .
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
Three reasons why I would think not.
1. How sure could he be that China and others will say enough? What if they don't? 2. Depending on the details of the bomb, and how it is detonated, the long-term effects could be devastating. Ukraine already has to deal with the Chernobyl exclusion zone. They do not need more areas of their country turned into contaminated wastelands. 3. Ukraine are now winning this war. Of course, they would want to win as quickly as possible, but they are not in such a desperate situation that they would need to contemplate such a costly trade.
It doesn't harm him for it at least to be considered an open question though (whether he might want it). If there was any thought internally within Russia that use of nuclear weapons might actually help Ukraine, then it massively reduces the chances of it happening.
Read the thread about hospital admissions. I am due for planned surgery later this month; it's to halt a deteriorating condition which if it isn't halted soon, will, I fear mean I require social care, probably in a care home. While little of the cost of that will be borne by the state I will be taking up a bed which could be occupied by somebody else. Somebody who could otherwise be discharged from hospital!
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
First rule of politics: learn to count.
The second rule is that "things" tend not to happen.
If the Budget is voted down, surely that is once again a confidence issue and it's therefore time for a general election
It's an interesting point. One of the consequences of the Fixed Term Parliament Act was that it effectively ended the traditional position of Queen's(/King's) Speech and budget being confidence issues which automatically brought down the Government. Now that the FTPA has been repealed, have we now just returned to the pre-2010 position?
The number of Tory MPs who seem to think that putting the top rate of tax back to 40p is inherently outrageous rather than just poor timing just shows how much politics has moved to the left over the last couple of decades, contrary to popular perception.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
First rule of politics: learn to count.
The second rule is that "things" tend not to happen.
“Something will turn up” has been the strategy of Unionists for the past six decades. It is set to remain their strategy until dissolution day.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
This was my hospital last week. Each ambulance was unable to unload and had a patient in the back.
I counted 24.
That’s shit. It is patchy though. RUH in Bath no issues when I was there.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
Starmer is generally neutral in Scotland, the Tories thoroughgoing toxic and a massive free asset to the SNP , most of all Bojo and now Truss. The Union would definitely be much more likely strengthened rather than anything other with him as Prime Minister.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Nonsense. Another Straw Man. I have repeatedly set out 2 other scenarios whereby Lab could get a Maj, even if Scotland’s voting behaviour remains unchanged:
A. Con collapse in England B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
Interesting snippet in the Observers editorial this morning, at the end of a piece about cuts to the BBC World Service.
"In this penny-pinching context, the reported 45% increase in spending on Foreign Office credit cards while Truss was foreign secretary requires explanation. Payments included £10,000 at Fortnum & Mason and thousands more spent on posh restaurants and beauty products. What was Truss thinking? Here is another job for the Office for Budget Responsibility."
Don't forget buying up half the club shop at Norwich City FC. Goes a wee bit beyond 'bad optics' I reckon
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Nonsense. Another Straw Man. I have repeatedly set out 2 other scenarios whereby Lab could get a Maj, even if Scotland’s voting behaviour remains unchanged:
A. Con collapse in England B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
A. 20/1 B. 33/1
Both have significantly shortened since then.
You are obsessed with Independence though, every post you make somehow comes back to it. The reality is that most of the UK no longer care.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
Starmer is generally neutral in Scotland, the Tories thoroughgoing toxic and a massive free asset to the SNP , most of all Bojo and now Truss. The Union would definitely be much more likely strengthened rather than anything other with him in charge.
The Union was much more stable under Tony Blair than it ever has been under the Tories.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
This was my hospital last week. Each ambulance was unable to unload and had a patient in the back.
I counted 24.
If you were in charge, what do you think would need to be done to resolve that?
We Nedd more acute medical beds, with staff, and a Social Care system that can take discharges.
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
A pregnancy?
She’s nearly 48.
Possible, but the odds must surely be stacked against that?
I believe her 2 daughters are about 13 and 16? Not an easy scenario for a new baby.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
That's what people were saying about Boris when they mocked him for "losing" the majority, which only existed by including the DUP, in the Commons. A few months later he won an 80 seat majority.
Not likely to happen again by any means, but voting against the whip on matters of Confidence and Supply has always meant losing the whip.
NHS watch: district nurse caring for octogenarian mother-in-law called ambulance for her at 7:15pm last night. Ambulance arrived at 3am. As of two minutes ago, ambulance was still sat outside hospital with MIL in back of it, being fed tea and biscuits. She's not suffering an acute, immediately life-threatening condition, thank God, but it shows what an absolutely dire state these services are in.
This is before the annual epidemic of old people falling over in Winter, plus flu, plus Covid, plus the developing wave of untreated conditions left to worsen during lockdowns, and all those who'll be made sick by being forced to go cold and/or hungry. Plus, it would now seem, the additional burden of frozen budgets and working age benefits.
It's a matter of immediate necessity to get rid of this Government but the fact is that, unless enough Conservative turkeys vote for Christmas in the Commons, they'll be sat there, immovable, until January 2025. More likely than not we've got over two years of this acute dysfunction and systemic collapse left to come. There'll be nothing left for Labour to put back together again at this rate.
Please don’t think this is insensitive - it’s not meant this way. Why is she at hospital if she’s not suffering an acute life threatening emergency? Would she not be more comfortable having tea and biscuits at home? Why was the ambulance called?
UTI which won't clear, nurse was concerned about infection spreading and leading to sepsis, which would have a high chance of being fatal.
Not every medical condition is either as trivial as a common cold or as serious as a cardiac arrest. Doesn't mean that some of those in between don't also require hospitalization. And the patient in this case is practically housebound and somewhat confused, it's not as if she could get to an acute hospital under her own steam and then wait however many hours or days on a chair in A&E to be seen and assessed.
The Government would doubtless like to wish away inconvenient sick old people like this, but as Therese Coffey will discover this Winter it ain't that simple.
Cheers. I wasn’t trying to be insensitive, as I hope I expressed. Older folks are very prone to utis and confusion. Hopefully she gets admitted soon. Clearly there we have demonstrated that running the NHS ‘efficiently’, where ‘efficiently’ means minimising empty beds leads to chaos if you get a surge in need. Covid is exacerbating the winter surges that we’ve seen for years. Time to look afresh at a system that copes with variable demand.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Threatening to withdraw the whip is no threat if 40+ MPs declare like Gove that they will rebel in a budget vote.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
That's what people were saying about Boris when they mocked him for "losing" the majority, which only existed by including the DUP, in the Commons. A few months later he won an 80 seat majority.
Not likely to happen again by any means, but voting against the whip on matters of Confidence and Supply has always meant losing the whip.
This time surely voting against will trigger a GE, the FTPA has been repealed.
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
A pregnancy?
Not if rumours of preferred behaviour are true, like the newly wed Greek bride.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Nonsense. Another Straw Man. I have repeatedly set out 2 other scenarios whereby Lab could get a Maj, even if Scotland’s voting behaviour remains unchanged:
A. Con collapse in England B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
A. 20/1 B. 33/1
Both have significantly shortened since then.
You are obsessed with Independence though, every post you make somehow comes back to it. The reality is that most of the UK no longer care.
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
A pregnancy?
Not if rumours of preferred behaviour are true, like the newly wed Greek bride.
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Nonsense. Another Straw Man. I have repeatedly set out 2 other scenarios whereby Lab could get a Maj, even if Scotland’s voting behaviour remains unchanged:
A. Con collapse in England B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
A. 20/1 B. 33/1
Both have significantly shortened since then.
You are obsessed with Independence though, every post you make somehow comes back to it. The reality is that most of the UK no longer care.
SNP are focussed on independence? Who knew?? 😄
You are obsessed with it, every day you post about it, it doesn't matter to that many people.
I am not obsessed with Unionism, I barely ever post about it
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
A pregnancy?
She’s nearly 48.
Possible, but the odds must surely be stacked against that?
I believe her 2 daughters are about 13 and 16? Not an easy scenario for a new baby.
If the Budget is voted down, surely that is once again a confidence issue and it's therefore time for a general election
It's an interesting point. One of the consequences of the Fixed Term Parliament Act was that it effectively ended the traditional position of Queen's(/King's) Speech and budget being confidence issues which automatically brought down the Government. Now that the FTPA has been repealed, have we now just returned to the pre-2010 position?
Ostensibly yes, is my understanding. I keep meaning to read the bill though to see if there are any caveats that have been missed, though.
Truss is speaking lower and lower. Same BS as when Thatcher decided to speak like a man. So even now she is cosplaying Thatcha.
She can’t be far off a mental breakdown. Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
Oh come now - its not a 'budget' its a 'special emergency balls-up'. They don't count
I've always said that Gove is the smartest of them. He's proved it again this morning. I think he is the one that Labour should fear. He's clever, gets things done and is politically savvy. He knows how to play the game.
Keir Starmer has adopted Gove’s “muscular unionism” lock, stock and barrel. We’ll soon find out how “smart” and “clever” that was. Ho ho.
We will. If a decent chunk of Scottish Tory voters switch to Labour, things could get interesting.
There is no doubt Starmer as PM is not good news for the SNP
Huh? Starmer’s net approval north of the border in today’s Opinium is +/-0. That suits the SNP just fine.
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
I think Labour will do better in Scotland because they are now the opposition to the SNP, that is a few seats on its own.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
Nonsense. Another Straw Man. I have repeatedly set out 2 other scenarios whereby Lab could get a Maj, even if Scotland’s voting behaviour remains unchanged:
A. Con collapse in England B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
A. 20/1 B. 33/1
Both have significantly shortened since then.
You are obsessed with Independence though, every post you make somehow comes back to it. The reality is that most of the UK no longer care.
SNP are focussed on independence? Who knew?? 😄
You are obsessed with it, every day you post about it, it doesn't matter to that many people.
I am not obsessed with Unionism, I barely ever post about it
It matters to a majority of my fellow Scots.
The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.
Independence 52% Devolution (the status quo) 38% Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
I will continue to focus on my goals. Feel free to focus on yours.
Comments
Boys and girls, we are politics geeks. We all have different perspectives and experiences and backgrounds, but we are students of politics. Enthusiasts. And this, THIS is politics. And modern history. Grab yer popcorn and enjoy.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576492660738510851
At that point surely even China and others who have been more supportive of Putin will say enough .
Look again at the LK car crash. She said again and again that she is right, that this is required. She clearly knows they are taking an axe to public services and the welfare state. And in refusing to deny it whilst committing to the triple lock, she effectively confirmed it.
So why didn't she just say "we are going to have to do unpopular things but its ok"? Isn't she master of the universe with a clear personal mandate?
She can't say "it'll look bad politically" with everything else she is doing. Especially when she says she doesn't care about the optics or being unpopular. So why not just say it?
A breakaway of sufficient size to split the party would still be divided on other issues including the EU, social issues (anti-wokeism etc) and like or dislike of Boris.
This is what they had to say 👇 https://trib.al/0cAVmsG
Does the PM have to resign? Does the Chancellor have to resign? Does anyone ever have to resign any more? Do they just muddle on with the amended plan?
So 'rebel' Con MPs lose the whip and are deselected? If Truss doesn't make it to the next GE they'd be welcomed back anyway wouldn't they?
Do they mess this up so badly it ends up in a GE? Seems impossible but then you recall Liz Truss, yes Liz Truss, got to be PM!
When you talk about public services and cutting public spending people fail to realise that public services and spending are a voracious monster that will eat more and more of our GDP in a manner that is becoming unsustainable. They take an ever-increasing proportion of our GDP just to stand still and we are not even willing to let them stand still. We place more and more demands on them without dealing with the issue of how to pay for them and, at some point, something has to give.
The problem is that, even amongst those who recognise the issues, there is no agreement, either due to ideology or vested interest over what areas have to be constrained or reduced. And as the polling quoted by Scott shows, those of us who are even willing to accept there need to be cuts, let along agree on what form they should take, are a small minority.
This country, this society, in its current form is utterly fucked if people don't start to show some understanding.
Truss and her idiocy doesn't help this because she is an ideolog as well and doesn't understand that you can only make these changes through discussion, education and compromise.
Truss is about to discover what all those questions about democratic legitimacy mean.
1. How sure could he be that China and others will say enough? What if they don't?
2. Depending on the details of the bomb, and how it is detonated, the long-term effects could be devastating. Ukraine already has to deal with the Chernobyl exclusion zone. They do not need more areas of their country turned into contaminated wastelands.
3. Ukraine are now winning this war. Of course, they would want to win as quickly as possible, but they are not in such a desperate situation that they would need to contemplate such a costly trade.
2) She was also desperate to say market reaction is all about the energy package. It isn’t. The trigger was still her budget.
https://twitter.com/patmcfaddenmp/status/1576494782658248705
"In this penny-pinching context, the reported 45% increase in spending on Foreign Office credit cards while Truss was foreign secretary requires explanation. Payments included £10,000 at Fortnum & Mason and thousands more spent on posh restaurants and beauty products. What was Truss thinking? Here is another job for the Office for Budget Responsibility."
No need to mention it for now, though.
My daughter when aged 8, broke her arm and had to be taken to hospital. Not life threatening.
Lots of conditions require treatment, but let you eat tea and biscuits and still require medical intervention.
The Latvian elections have seen the likely re-election of the centre-right Prime Minister, while the leading moderate Russian party has been reduced to single figures, as Latvians reject any Russian influence and some Russians dropped the party after its criticisms of the Kremlin. It ought to be straightforward to form a coalition, but the reemergence of Aivars Lembergs, a corrupt Latvian minigarch, is not great news for those who wanted to clean up Latvian politics. It will also be a more polarised politics in the coming years. Nevertheless at least the outlook is stable for the forthcoming 14th Latvian Seima. It also shows that even Russian soft power is disintegrating.
In Estonia more sanctions have been applied, and as of December 31st no Russian gas may be imported from Russia. In fact Estonia stopped taking gas from Russia last April, but there are still some licenses to permit transit and imports, but these will now be suspended. Germany should take note, the truth is that Russia can no longer be taken to be a reliable supplier, and the destruction of the Nordstream system, almost certainly by Russia itself, should now force Berlin to cease its weak and foolish attempts to engage with the regime.
The dramatic plunge of Russian state finances shows the sanctions pressure is increasingly severe, and the loss of so many economically active men, is accelerating the state of collapse. The breakdown of aviation as the result of the theft of western Airbus and Boeing planes is also getting worse: there are few parts and no airworthiness certificates being issued. Even China is not permitting Russian planes to fly in their skies. Rail is suffering from similar problems as modern equipment has to be abandoned for lack of parts. The predicted impact of the sanctions has been massively magnified by a general boycott of Russia and the stunning incompetence of the decisions being taken by the Kremlin.
As for the course of the war itself, the fall of Lyman has been an unmitigated disaster for the Russians. The retreat developed into a rout and the casualty toll is very high. The UAF have advanced close to the centre of Kreminna, and another Russian force seems set to be flanked at Ribizhne, so both Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk are now exposed to the Ukrainian attack. Meanwhile the Kherson sector has also seen more progress. The fiasco of the mobilization has only created further confusion on the front line, but the defeated Russian units are some of the best in their regular army. The achievements of the UAF are remarkable, and there is a sense of expectation that a further Ukrainian breakthrough is coming.
So as we celebrate the political implosion of the Conservatives, we can also see progress in other fields too.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1576490556100055040
I counted 24.
Surely the “retiring on health grounds” gambit is being considered in the upper echelons of The Establishment? It is the only reasonably graceful way out for her now.
Our ambulance and A&E services should be able to cope with these sorts of situations. Currently they cannot.
Given that it would require at most 1 member of staff to look after her in hospital it’s an expensive waste of resources…
That said, I don't quite grant the premise. We don't really know how China would respond if Russia used nuclear weapons.
Not every medical condition is either as trivial as a common cold or as serious as a cardiac arrest. Doesn't mean that some of those in between don't also require hospitalization. And the patient in this case is practically housebound and somewhat confused, it's not as if she could get to an acute hospital under her own steam and then wait however many hours or days on a chair in A&E to be seen and assessed.
The Government would doubtless like to wish away inconvenient sick old people like this, but as Therese Coffey will discover this Winter it ain't that simple.
“The only train that’s moving is the one Kwasi’s just been chucked under.”
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576499302289248256/photo/1
If I am correct, we’d be looking at a Scottish seat distribution (new boundaries) of approximately:
SNP 51 seats (+3)
SLab 3 seats (+2)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
SCon 1 seat (-5)
If Starmer only manages 2 gains in Scotland then he must dig deep, deep into solid Con territory in southern England. Doable, but extraordinarily difficult.
The Tories have the same dilemma as they had when they wanted to get rid of Johnson, they dithered because there was no obvious leader in waiting. Anyone the members choose is very likely to be about as popular as Truss with the voters. They are stuck with a dwindling field of hopeless Brexiteers. The fact they are even contemplating bringing back lying, lazy Boris says it all really.
I am due for planned surgery later this month; it's to halt a deteriorating condition which if it isn't halted soon, will, I fear mean I require social care, probably in a care home. While little of the cost of that will be borne by the state I will be taking up a bed which could be occupied by somebody else. Somebody who could otherwise be discharged from hospital!
I remember the dog days of the Major government and the meteoric rise of Tony Blair. I’ll never forget knocking doors in Inverness and nearly every single person, irrespective of whether a LD, Con, Lab or SNP voter, telling me that Tony was the next messiah. Or sentiments to that effect. Blair’s net approval in Scotland in 95 must have been about +70. Starmer is just another dud as far as Scots are concerned.
She is going to stumble on until she loses. This is the end of New Labour all over again.
I think you over-estimate how important Scotland is to winning a majority however. You are desperate for it to matter because it furthers your Independence ambitions but I think you're denying reality at this point.
A. Con collapse in England
B. Lib Dem landslide in southern England
I guessed the following prices a couple of weeks ago:
A. 20/1
B. 33/1
Both have significantly shortened since then.
Possible, but the odds must surely be stacked against that?
I believe her 2 daughters are about 13 and 16? Not an easy scenario for a new baby.
Not likely to happen again by any means, but voting against the whip on matters of Confidence and Supply has always meant losing the whip.
Clearly there we have demonstrated that running the NHS ‘efficiently’, where ‘efficiently’ means minimising empty beds leads to chaos if you get a surge in need. Covid is exacerbating the winter surges that we’ve seen for years. Time to look afresh at a system that copes with variable demand.
I am not obsessed with Unionism, I barely ever post about it
The gold-standard British Social Attitudes Survey has.
Independence 52%
Devolution (the status quo) 38%
Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
I will continue to focus on my goals. Feel free to focus on yours.