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GE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
imageGE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com

This is something that in all my years of studying and writing about polling that I have never seen before – a party’s supporters not even giving their leader an approval rating of 50% or more

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,290
    Test
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,313
    She's toast.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    The government is untrussworthy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Tories trussed up with nowhere to go.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Certainly not. All our turkeys are stuffed for Christmas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    edited October 2
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    This is correct, but the speed of politics also makes the 'unthinkable' idea that a leader could be removed after a few weeks possible.

    Performance to date suggests her ideas are reckless and unpopular, and she is terrible at communicating them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    You can’t Trust Liz.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    Example?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 2
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    No. Not one single iota of a chance.

    The tories are finished in terms of the next General Election. It is now simply a question of how big Labour's seat range will be. Some of that, but not all, is down to how much damage limitation the tories are prepared to factor. If they reinstated Boris Johnson then they will save a significant number of seats.

    Many a cautious 'unprecedented' commentator on here STILL fails to believe that Labour will win an outright majority. But great punditry is spotting a trend even before it's underway (which it now is) and moving ahead of the markets.

    I am certain now that Labour will win outright. The only real question left is, 'by how much?'

    My view? Landslide with a swing that has not been seen before, beating even 1931's 14.4%.

    I suspect the swing to Labour will be 15% or more.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    edited October 2
    Betting Post

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: still looking through the markets but I'm going to back Perez each way at 11 (12 with boost). He starts 2nd on a circuit that's hard to pass on. The odds just look wrong.

    Edited extra bit: that's for the win, of course.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,847
    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Get used to it. You’ve had a good long run. This is a long way from being as negative as possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    No chance at all. Indeed she is going to be more unpopular still when attention turns to her planned environmental vandalism and freezing of welfare budgets. Below 20% and Scottish Tory levels of support.

    One odd thing in the table is the high approval ratings for Truss amongst current LibDem voters. Is it because we approve of her destroying her party?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    ...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 2
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obituary.

    Nope. It really isn't. She is finished. As dead as the infamous parrot. Politically she has ceased to be.

    You don't come back from this. Period.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,965

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Why is it negative? This is very topical and will remain topical until the Tories crash and burn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Betting Post

    F1: a shockingly straightforward pre-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/singapore-pre-race-2022.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    “People are not that upset with the budget… we are angry because they are sh*t and cannot communicate the strategy so the public feel frightened instead of reassured” - MP who backed Truss.

    “Things will blow over” - ally.

    My piece ahead of conference👇


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Scott_xP said:

    “People are not that upset with the budget… we are angry because they are sh*t and cannot communicate the strategy so the public feel frightened instead of reassured” - MP who backed Truss.

    “Things will blow over” - ally.

    My piece ahead of conference👇


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748

    Hurricanes always blow over.

    The issue is the damage they leave behind when they have done so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    Tories trussed up with nowhere to go.

    If only we still had Corbyn she'd be in trouble
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    The Tories might be ahead by Christmas if they replace Liz Truss by then. Conference starts today so from now to Wednesday, Birmingham will be full of MPs and activists telling each other how bad things are, and full of journalists ready to buy drinks and listen.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,364

    Tories trussed up with nowhere to go.

    Shame Corbyn’s not still leader to take advantage, eh?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Liz Truss wanted to be seen as different, she achieved that goal.

    However, she has committed a huge error. She has allowed her opponents to define her leadership. I’ve not seen any leader able to row back from that.

    She will forever be seen as different, but in an untrustworthy Rob the poor feed the rich kind of way.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 2
    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    He had a very good week. It wasn’t luck that he was perfectly positioned to capitalise on Truss’ error. He’s been carefully moving the chess pieces for some time and appears to have found the language that resonates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obituary.

    Nope. It really isn't. She is finished. As dead as the infamous parrot. Politically she has ceased to be.

    You don't come back from this. Period.
    The only way it might happen is if Russia decides to actually invade Kent. And Truss is seen as effective in the following war.

    The first seems improbable, even allowing for Putin's losing of the plot.

    The second even more so.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 2
    Roger said:

    Tories trussed up with nowhere to go.

    If only we still had Corbyn she'd be in trouble
    It's an important point to remember. 2016 Brexit and 2019 Corbyn vs Boris' Brexit election have skewed our analysis.

    Now that both Boris and Corbyn are gone, and Brexit is done, in a significant way we should mentally consider the parameters of the next General Election swing as being from 2015 and 2017, not from 2019.

    2019 was an anomaly.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    I agree on reflection, a lot of things can happen. We know from the last year that tory MPs will hesitate and dither before acting, despite the things they say to the media.

    However they have catastrophically screwed up the 'mini-budget' and the 'plan for growth'. It is hard to imagine how it could have gone worse. Everything about it was wrong. It has been about the worst imaginable start and the failure is primarily with her inability to communicate it. You cannot rule out the possibility that she will out in a few months due to incompetence at the job.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    I'm sure you can find anything on the internet these days. If you can dig deep enough into the dark web you might even find someone who thinks she's OK.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,364
    Scott_xP said:

    “People are not that upset with the budget… we are angry because they are sh*t and cannot communicate the strategy so the public feel frightened instead of reassured” - MP who backed Truss.

    “Things will blow over” - ally.

    My piece ahead of conference👇


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748

    "But I think it's a radical approach that was well-trailed. People have got to come to terms with that.
    "If anyone was surprised that this was a radical financial statement, they shouldn't be."


    “Well-trailed” to the Conservative Party and it’s selectorate. Why this individual thought the country’s population spent the summer following a debate addressed only to the fee-paying members of the Tory Party is beyond me. Even if those that were following it outside his party were not being addressed directly.

    The manifesto that won over Tory members would not have made it in a general election. As I’ve said before, separating the choice of PM from the choice of the majority of the Commons is breaking the constitution. While there’s nothing unlawful about this manner of choosing the PM, its dangerous, for everyone, to assume the views of the Tory party membership reflect the views of the electorate.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,847
    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    People are saying Wednesday’s speech is the most difficult of Liz Truss’ life. It’s actually the easiest. She either dumps the 45p tax cut, or her and her party are finished > Mail on Sunday > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11271169/DAN-HODGES-Liz-Truss-does-not-change-course-Wednesday-shell-consign-Tories-oblivion.htmlhi
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673
    There’s no way back for her

    The moment she took the tories down the route of ideological tax cuts without any evidence the approach would work (let alone funded), she made the task impossible

    She’s also set herself the target of 2.5% gdp growth which she’ll never reach
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Truss and co do not appear to have to adapt politically to a situation where their preferred strategy has been seriously damaged.

    They seem to want to plough on under the assumption that the nation will somehow come to their senses and thank them.

    A long shot.

    A more experienced politician would either work extra time to contain the damage or adopt a new political approach. Truss seems unable and unwilling to do either.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    - ”What is significant about Opinium is that it was the top poster at the last election”

    Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.

    Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:

    SNP 45%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 6%
    oth 7%

    Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 8%
    oth 5%

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    I think you're right. If you don't care about the crisis in every day living that the vast majority of us are finding then it's probably best you become a hermit on a distant shore.

    But, no, I don't "feel good". Like most people I am FUCKING angry about it. Geddit?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,364
    Scott_xP said:

    People are saying Wednesday’s speech is the most difficult of Liz Truss’ life. It’s actually the easiest. She either dumps the 45p tax cut, or her and her party are finished > Mail on Sunday > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11271169/DAN-HODGES-Liz-Truss-does-not-change-course-Wednesday-shell-consign-Tories-oblivion.htmlhi

    How is simply dumping the 45p going to fix this. It’s a focus of anger but what about mortgage rates, bankers bonuses, public service cuts…there’s was so much in the Special Fiscal Operation to rile people up.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    There’s no way back for her

    The moment she took the tories down the route of ideological tax cuts without any evidence the approach would work (let alone funded), she made the task impossible

    She’s also set herself the target of 2.5% gdp growth which she’ll never reach

    It is worse than no evidence, she couldn't even be bothered to make up any nonsense spin for people to argue either. It has just been trust the Truss because we are cleverer than you, and you will see the error of your ways in a few years time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    It’s also where the betting action is.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited October 2

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    He brushed his teeth
    He combed his hair

    Still thinking about the next couple of things
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,146
    Really good piece in the Observer about the tumultuous last ten days, some great quotes from Tories: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/02/ten-days-that-shook-the-british-political-world-the-inside-story-of-tory-collapse
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.

    This depends on the degree to which the Conservative Party can recover from its present dire position before it next has to go to the country. They are in a dreadful state, and at this stage they seem to be essentially reliant on a drift back into habitual voting patterns by pensioners to prevent a heavy defeat from becoming a complete rout.

    Scotland only accounts for 9% of the seats in Parliament. Labour will want a slice of that action, but ultimately it doesn't need any of them if the victory in England and Wales is big enough.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    To misquote yes minister.

    Plays Articles attacking the government are the second most boring read night out

    What’s the most boring?

    Plays Articles praising the government.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 774
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    This is correct, but the speed of politics also makes the 'unthinkable' idea that a leader could be removed after a few weeks possible.

    Performance to date suggests her ideas are reckless and unpopular, and she is terrible at communicating them.
    Difficult to imagine there would be any event that could as Labour are in opposition not in government, so can't screw anything up in the same way as the mini-budget, plus, whatever his other faults, Starmer is hardly reckless, has cleared out the cranks who might embarrass the party (especially when leading it), and would go pretty sharpish were some personal scandal to make him a liability. Which leaves the government finding an upside. The most obvious one would be a full Ukrainian victory. But while the government should be proud of its record in helping, it's hardly their victory (and more associated with Boris), and God knows what it would mean next, certainly not an immediate solving of cost of living issues in the short term given the turmoil in Russia that would have to play out. Plus, one of the reasons the mini budget was awful is that it's not just proved a costly error in its own right, but it's also tied the Tories most unpopular instincts on cutting taxes for the richest while squeezing those on lower incomes into working harder to the globally shoddy outlook for everyone, by making things worse. They might have got a degree of understanding on interest rate rises before the mini budget. Not any more. Strange things seem to happen a lot in politics. But a Tory recovery in the near to medium term would be very strange indeed. And that's before the fact Truss is a very poor communicator who now really needs that skill to change the overwhelmingly negative perceptions that have set in.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited October 2
    Morning all.

    Who makes the opening speech at the Tory party conference? Deputy Leader?

    Today is looking .... dreary. And I've got to be outside, possibly on the (first storey) roof.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766
    Between now and 23 November Truss has said Kwarteng will outline other measures presumably including the spending side of the governments balance sheet. Teachers, Nurses, Soldiers, MPs and Civil Servants are going to want pay increases at least in line with inflation. This will add at least £20bn to spending unless services are to be cut - which ones - Defence?, NHS?, Farmers?, Police?, Overseas Aid?, .......

    Advice to The Conservative Party Conference from a West Midlands chap:

    If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
    It were done quickly: if the assassination
    Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
    With his surcease success; that but this blow
    Might be the be-all and the end-all here,

    Shakespeare Macbeth
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Absolutely.

    I won't let you know what I think until 8.30 am.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    He brushed his teeth
    He combed his hair

    Still thinking about the next couple of things
    He seems to have done a pretty effective detox of the anti-Semitism problem and has had the good sense not to restore the whip to Corbyn. Apart from that he's gone out of his way not to do anything to scare floating voters, he's read the public mood correctly on the predominant desire for a larger state (whilst wisely declining to say much about exactly from whom the necessary funds are to be extracted,) and has left the Government to blunder from one mistake to the next. Starmer's not particularly charismatic, but faced with the wretched quality of his opponents he doesn't have to be - in fact, after the preceding period of "excitement" a bit of dull but competent managerialism will come to many of us as a blessed relief.

    I would vote Labour, content that it was reasonably safe to put this man and his front bench into office, albeit that the vagaries of FPTP mean that it may make more sense for me to back the Lib Dems in an effort to get rid of the local Tory. That's a bit of a coin toss in this part of the world. Regardless, I think that he's done quite well.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,364

    - ”What is significant about Opinium is that it was the top poster at the last election”

    Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.

    Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:

    SNP 45%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 6%
    oth 7%

    Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 8%
    oth 5%

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.

    Blair won 362 seats in England & Wales in 1997, 328 in England alone. While it would help enormously, Starmer doesn’t need to “shift the Scottish dial” to get a majority. He just has to do nearly as well as Blair in 1997. Which, at the moment, is hardly out of the question.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    I think it’s very likely that there’s worse to come for the Conservatives.

    Credit Suisse is strongly believed to be on the verge of going pop. If/when they do, that’ll be the mother of all contagion.

    Do you have confidence in Kwarteng making the right calls on this, having defenestrated the Treasury perm sec as his first act in office? I don’t.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
    Like 1992 for Labour, or 2015 for a Lib Dem. We all have to take the ignominious painful defeat eventually, even Tories.

    The silver lining is that this is democracy in action, the alternative to a one party state and the chance to renew and leave behind tired ideas and politicians.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    Mr Jessop,

    "What do you think those decisions were?"

    He decided to do nothing in general, then he decided to discipline one or two of the old Corbynite loonies. Brillliant tactics - proving the Tories can be left alone to make their own mistakes, and a bit of Corbyn-bashing never goes amiss.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    edited October 2
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    He brushed his teeth
    He combed his hair

    Still thinking about the next couple of things
    The thing they did was to immediately recognize that this was a disaster and come out and say they'd reverse that tax cut, rather than dithering and hedging. That wasn't about the tax cut per se, but demonstrated that they were decisive and "on the side of the people". Two things about which "the people" were previously unsure.

    Plus the teeth and hair brushing.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
    It could be worse than 97 at this rate.

    There are lessons to be learned from history here. Look at what happened to the old Liberal Party a hundred years ago. The Conservative Party, as a major political force, has no divine right to exist.

    And then there's the Canada 93 precedent to be considered as well.

    If it becomes obvious that the Conservative Party cares about nothing and nobody except for higher rate taxpayers, then what reason is there for anyone other than higher rate taxpayers to endorse it? And that's the end of the Conservative Party.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    Example?
    Nuclear attack?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Well there’s no point in waiting until after Xmas to say it.
    Or indeed until after she’s booted out, which will quite likely be sooner.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 2

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    Saying that Labour now represent the political wing of middle Britain. Tony Blair Mk II. Whether you liked him or not we can all look back on that now as a golden era
    Urging the recall of Parliament to sort the crisis and asking where Truss was
    A national Green British Energy Company. Clever move: ticked at least two giant boxes of concern
    Opposing the 'trickle down' economics which is nonsense at a time of economic downturn (debatable during a period of growth too)
    And, yes, having the national anthem sung at the Labour Conference
    etc.

    What did all this say? That Labour are now the sensible person's choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    This @EdConwaySky column argues the markets aren't all taking fright at individual elements of the Truss plan

    They've taken fright at her, her attitudes and all round approach - altogether harder problem for the Tory party to solve
    https://twitter.com/davidmapstone/status/1576468865529397248
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,507
    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    Summary of the British people's experience of the economy until the next election:

    * The already poor: cold, hunger, shoplifting, loan sharks
    * The just about managing: no longer managing - mortgage defaults, fire sales, negative equity, financial ruin, moving the family back in with Mum's parents or worse
    * The comfortably off: surviving but with sharp falls in disposable incomes, in turn a catastrophe for many consumer facing businesses and their soon to be sacked employees
    * The rich: getting even richer thank you very much
    * Everyone: rising crime and disorder, tatty streets, uncollected rubbish, collapsing public services, tripping over the street homeless on pavements everywhere, a pervading atmosphere of chaos and decline

    These are not circumstances conducive to a glorious victory at the polls.
    Apparently all of this is "hyperbolic repetition" and "boring".

    I'm not sure the voters find it boring.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    DougSeal said:

    - ”What is significant about Opinium is that it was the top poster at the last election”

    Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.

    Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:

    SNP 45%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 6%
    oth 7%

    Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 8%
    oth 5%

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.

    Blair won 362 seats in England & Wales in 1997, 328 in England alone. While it would help enormously, Starmer doesn’t need to “shift the Scottish dial” to get a majority. He just has to do nearly as well as Blair in 1997. Which, at the moment, is hardly out of the question.

    SKS is not the the silver tongued devil Blair and he’s up against Truss and the deranged rump of the Tory party, not Major and a cabinet of largish beasts. It’s possible he may get a 1997 result but it’ll be in a very different context.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    Liz Truss is definitely guilty of bad timing. It's Keir's good luck that the world is looking a bit uncertain at the moment and she's decided to stake the house on a massive gamble. She's misread the electorate.

    She still looks wooden and uncertain. Starmer may be a boring old fart, but that's what's needed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    EXC: Harry Mount has resigned from the House of Lords Appointments Commission a fortnight after taking the role

    Mount, journalist and author of book about “wit and wisdom” of Boris Johnson, was appointed by former-PM

    One source cites “cronyism row”; another “personal reasons”

    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1576471460918759424
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Scott_xP said:

    This @EdConwaySky column argues the markets aren't all taking fright at individual elements of the Truss plan

    They've taken fright at her, her attitudes and all round approach - altogether harder problem for the Tory party to solve
    https://twitter.com/davidmapstone/status/1576468865529397248

    It isn't a hard problem to solve, it is a hard problem to know who will replace her.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Basically, Sir Keir Starmer looks prime ministerial.

    Liz Truss doesn't.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    @kjh
    Regarding the US government looking at your linkedin profile, I think they can do this without identifying themselves to you pretty easily, by changing the settings to make them anonymous. So they were interested in you for some reason and didn't want you to be aware of that fact, then you would have thought that they would have done so in anonymous mode.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Dr. Foxy, not only do they need a replacement they need it by coronation which makes it trickier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    In a competitive field this would be the shallow revolutionaries’ most reckless act:
    https://twitter.com/bob__hudson/status/1576466450352463877
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232

    DougSeal said:

    - ”What is significant about Opinium is that it was the top poster at the last election”

    Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.

    Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:

    SNP 45%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 6%
    oth 7%

    Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:

    SNP 44%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 20%
    SLD 8%
    oth 5%

    If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.

    Blair won 362 seats in England & Wales in 1997, 328 in England alone. While it would help enormously, Starmer doesn’t need to “shift the Scottish dial” to get a majority. He just has to do nearly as well as Blair in 1997. Which, at the moment, is hardly out of the question.

    SKS is not the the silver tongued devil Blair and he’s up against Truss and the deranged rump of the Tory party, not Major and a cabinet of largish beasts. It’s possible he may get a 1997 result but it’ll be in a very different context.
    Right now, Div, I'm thinking Canada-style wipeout rather than 1997.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    Well, of course, almost anything is possible - but we need to ask ourselves how this situation is somehow to be turned around. First impressions are very important, most voters will only really have become aware of Truss when she ascended to the top job, and it's evident that the preponderance of them really do not like what they have seen. The mini-budget went down like a cup of cold sick, and the thing is, most of the pain is yet to come. Consider:

    * We've had a lot of panicked talk about fuel bills, but the latest price hike only became effective yesterday
    * Winter is yet to come, and with it those desperate decisions about whether to turn on the heating and the annual NHS Winter Crisis along with it
    * We've no idea how long the turmoil on the financial markets will carry on for, and how high interest rates will go, but there is already growing panic over housing: the prospect of a doom loop of seized up mortgage markets, fire sales by distressed buyers and falling prices is all too real, which will cause widespread screaming amongst the electorate and see the property wealth of the Tory core vote of monied pensioners especially hard hit
    * The Government still has to try to sell a huge programme of freezes and cuts to social security and public services to an angry nation, which will be portrayed by the Opposition to be needless pain inflicted to stuff the mouths of the already rich with gold, because that's exactly what it is
    * Beyond that, there's vast potential for Parliamentary rebellions, defections, splits, even a successful VONC and an early election

    Some bright spark will be along in a moment to say "Well, what if this all works? Laffer Laffer Laffer, low taxes = growth, hooray!" Except that almost nobody has any faith that it will, and for good reason. The Thatcher Cult seems to think that Truss is their saviour but, comparing now with forty years ago, it's apparent that the two women and especially their political circumstances have very little in common. We're dealing with political and economic upheaval caused largely by the preceding period of Tory Government, not by Labour. Labour is not about to present Truss with another hard left leader at whom rocks can be thrown. When Thatcher was elected she had five years to turn the ship around, Truss only has two. Geoffrey Howe put reform ahead of tax cuts and brought taxes down as it became affordable, whereas Kwasi Kwarteng has just thrown a load of cash at the already wealthy and hoped for the best. Thatcher had North Sea oil revenues at her back and a vast stock of council houses to flog off, to raise revenue but especially to buy the support of aspirational voters, whereas Truss has neither.

    Truss has been dealt a bad hand and has played it with all the finesse of a blind drunk. The 2019 voter coalition has now exploded, and a large chunk even of the surviving Tory core vote have turned their noses up. Stick a fork in her, she's done.
    Thatcher had five years, and things were still pretty shit in 1983. Had she not benefitted from a recently sundered Labour party, with a leader seen by many as unelectable, and whatever bounce the Falkland lent her, the project would have been over before it started.
    And she had years of leading the opposition in which to plan.

    The comparison of the two is plain daft even if Truss were half as capable. Which she’s not.

    I suppose it’s possible the frackers will find a Saudi style oilfield sitting alongside a goldmine in the next month… in the imagination of those who think Truss can turn it around.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    It's a bit much for the last remaining Conservatives to complain about tory bashing when they have been in power for over a decade and, last time I checked, still are and will be for two more bloody long years.

    You've had a good run.

    At least let the Opposition have their moment of likely victory.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Good morning one and all!

    And in spite of all this, the Conservative election results last Thursday were quite reasonable.
    I suppose one thing in Liz's favour is that her predecessor is not attending the conference. Apparently!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    That table is strange. Given that Truss has a -20% approval rating amongst 2019 Conservative voters, how on earth can she only be -11% amongst current LD voters? Almost as many current LD voters approve of her performance as PM as disapprove (35% v 46%). More current LD voters strongly approve (18%) than current Con voters (15%).

    Is OGH a secret admirer?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    Yet another thread header being about as negative as possible about the Tories. Things will settle down .. but at what level. I certainly don't want to read thru thread after thread of aren't the Tories awful. When it's clear that things are bad. Is the Pope Catholic?

    Oh don't be so ridiculous.

    People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.

    This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.

    So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
    Day after day after day on the same subject is a complete yawn. I will leave you to.it to say how nasty the Tories are are 20 times a day. I'm sure it makes you feel good. Most of what is said on here about the Govt is hyperbolic repetition and a lot if it is questionable as to its authenticity. Have a nice day.
    i
    Seriously, you need to get used to and accept it. You might have ten years of this to go. It wasn’t a huge amount of fun being told that repeatedly that Labour were crap under Brown, Milliband and Corbyn. It’s an unavoidable part of political life.

    It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
    I am perpetually prepared for crushing disappointment in politics.

    I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
    You have the sense to realise it’s quite likely unless they dump her now, though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Mr. Phil, of course the Lib Dems approve of Truss, she's presenting the chance of substantial seat gains next time there's an election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited October 2
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    What is being ignored is Starmer's part in all this. He has made three or four very astute decisions which have not just made Labour electable but desirable and his timing has been impeccable

    What do you think those decisions were?
    He brushed his teeth
    He combed his hair

    Still thinking about the next couple of things
    He seems to have done a pretty effective detox of the anti-Semitism problem and has had the good sense not to restore the whip to Corbyn. Apart from that he's gone out of his way not to do anything to scare floating voters, he's read the public mood correctly on the predominant desire for a larger state (whilst wisely declining to say much about exactly from whom the necessary funds are to be extracted,) and has left the Government to blunder from one mistake to the next. Starmer's not particularly charismatic, but faced with the wretched quality of his opponents he doesn't have to be - in fact, after the preceding period of "excitement" a bit of dull but competent managerialism will come to many of us as a blessed relief.

    I would vote Labour, content that it was reasonably safe to put this man and his front bench into office, albeit that the vagaries of FPTP mean that it may make more sense for me to back the Lib Dems in an effort to get rid of the local Tory. That's a bit of a coin toss in this part of the world. Regardless, I think that he's done quite well.
    I'd say that Starmer has too many far too loose cannons around him who can't hold their peace, and not just on his back benches. A worrying lack of quality.

    Why was the Chair of the party sitting alongside Rupa Huq when she came out with her racist commentary about the most senior person of colour in the Government?

    Why is David Lamm (if Guido is correct, and I see no reason why not on this one) having to apologise to Mark Fullbrook having accused him of helping rig elections in a foreign country? He's the Shadow Foreign Secretary FFS; he should take himself seriously, even if no one else is able to do so.

    That's not to let Truss off, who seems not to give a toss about considering or managing the potential political downside, but we do need a credible alternative - which Labour does not have beyond the Bank Manager leading them.

    At the moment Truss is a melange of Little Miss Scatterbrain and Little Miss Stubborn.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    That table is strange. Given that Truss has a -20% approval rating amongst 2019 Conservative voters, how on earth can she only be -11% amongst current LD voters? Almost as many current LD voters approve of her performance as PM as disapprove (35% v 46%). More current LD voters strongly approve (18%) than current Con voters (15%).

    Is OGH a secret admirer?

    My only explanation is that LD voters approve of her destruction of the Conservative party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Or Liz Truss.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    What do the Tories need?

    A leader who looks confident rather than needy. It's not a female thing, the Baltic and East European ones look impressive. Rishi is unlucky in being too rich. Wallace could out-Starmer Keir himself.

    A revival of Corbyn. Never going to happen, not now he's tied to Putin's coat tails.

    A miracle.

    Events, dear boy, do happen. So a change of government in Russia and a gradual return to normality.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    edited October 2

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Premiership is dead and buried. Only question now is how long it takes Tories to realise it and whether they try to remove her.

    I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.

    Isn't it a bit early to be saying this?
    Christmas gets earlier every year.
    Politics happens so fast these days, the Tories might be ahead again by Christmas due to some unforeseen event.
    You are correct that it is too early to write Ms Truss's obitury.

    But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
    Based on recent years it would be a tax cut of around £20m for Denise Coates, head of b365, alone. Enough to fund a week of the school dinners over the summer for the whole country that the government spent ages telling Rashford we could not afford before u-turning.
    It’s a little unfair to highlight Denise Coates.

    As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.

    It is no criticism of her at all. She is remarkably successful, I wish I was that successful and earnt so much and paid so much tax. It is a criticism of the bizarrely warped priorities of the government that we can afford to give a billionaire who cannot spend the money she has an extra £20m a year whilst simultaneously saying we cannot afford to feed our children or heat their schools.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241

    I think it’s very likely that there’s worse to come for the Conservatives.

    Credit Suisse is strongly believed to be on the verge of going pop. If/when they do, that’ll be the mother of all contagion.

    Do you have confidence in Kwarteng making the right calls on this, having defenestrated the Treasury perm sec as his first act in office? I don’t.

    Also for most people with a mortgage the doubling of their repayments has not happened yet. When it does I’d expect to see anti-Tory sentiment harden.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “People are not that upset with the budget… we are angry because they are sh*t and cannot communicate the strategy so the public feel frightened instead of reassured” - MP who backed Truss.

    “Things will blow over” - ally.

    My piece ahead of conference👇


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748

    "But I think it's a radical approach that was well-trailed. People have got to come to terms with that.
    "If anyone was surprised that this was a radical financial statement, they shouldn't be."


    “Well-trailed” to the Conservative Party and it’s selectorate. Why this individual thought the country’s population spent the summer following a debate addressed only to the fee-paying members of the Tory Party is beyond me. Even if those that were following it outside his party were not being addressed directly.

    The manifesto that won over Tory members would not have made it in a general election. As I’ve said before, separating the choice of PM from the choice of the majority of the Commons is breaking the constitution. While there’s nothing unlawful about this manner of choosing the PM, its dangerous, for everyone, to assume the views of the Tory party membership reflect the views of the electorate.
    It’s not unconstitutional at all. All you need to be PM is to command a majority of the house. How that person is identified is irrelevant.

    It’s a bad system with significant weaknesses, but not “breaking the constitution”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Ukraine might not have so long to win this war. If the Republicans take either the House or the Senate, the ability of the administration to provide further financial and military support could be severely curtailed.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240

    The US Republicans are Putins most useful idiots.
This discussion has been closed.