GE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com
GE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com
This is something that in all my years of studying and writing about polling that I have never seen before – a party’s supporters not even giving their leader an approval rating of 50% or more
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I don’t think she’ll still be PM by Christmas.
Performance to date suggests her ideas are reckless and unpopular, and she is terrible at communicating them.
The tories are finished in terms of the next General Election. It is now simply a question of how big Labour's seat range will be. Some of that, but not all, is down to how much damage limitation the tories are prepared to factor. If they reinstated Boris Johnson then they will save a significant number of seats.
Many a cautious 'unprecedented' commentator on here STILL fails to believe that Labour will win an outright majority. But great punditry is spotting a trend even before it's underway (which it now is) and moving ahead of the markets.
I am certain now that Labour will win outright. The only real question left is, 'by how much?'
My view? Landslide with a swing that has not been seen before, beating even 1931's 14.4%.
I suspect the swing to Labour will be 15% or more.
Betting PostGood morning, everyone.
F1: still looking through the markets but I'm going to back Perez each way at 11 (12 with boost). He starts 2nd on a circuit that's hard to pass on. The odds just look wrong.
Edited extra bit: that's for the win, of course.
One odd thing in the table is the high approval ratings for Truss amongst current LibDem voters. Is it because we approve of her destroying her party?
People are desperately trying to get mortgages. Energy bills have just gone through the roof again. Prices in the shops are horrendous. The futures for prices, housing, spiralling Gov't debt are extremely grim. And we have clowns in Downing St who have lost the confidence of the city and the confidence of the British people. Opinion polls have produced eye watering plunges in tory support, the like of which has not been seen before so fast.
This is an unprecedented level of economic crisis on an every day living scale. Truss and Kwasi have shown themselves to be totally out of touch, robotic and tone deaf - cutting taxes for the riches 1% whilst squeezing the poor. All at a time of plunging standards of living.
So, yes, Mike and Co. are absolutely right to post about what is actually happening rather than your fairy tale view from another planet.
But at the same time, first impressions matter. And things like - like Black Wednesday - stick in voters minds. In this case, the impression (rightly or wrongly) that will be cemented in minds is that while disposable incomes for the 80% were getting squeezed, the richest 2% were getting a big tax cut.
You don't come back from this. Period.
Betting PostF1: a shockingly straightforward pre-race ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/singapore-pre-race-2022.html
“Things will blow over” - ally.
My piece ahead of conference👇
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63105748
The issue is the damage they leave behind when they have done so.
However, she has committed a huge error. She has allowed her opponents to define her leadership. I’ve not seen any leader able to row back from that.
She will forever be seen as different, but in an untrustworthy Rob the poor feed the rich kind of way.
* We've had a lot of panicked talk about fuel bills, but the latest price hike only became effective yesterday
* Winter is yet to come, and with it those desperate decisions about whether to turn on the heating and the annual NHS Winter Crisis along with it
* We've no idea how long the turmoil on the financial markets will carry on for, and how high interest rates will go, but there is already growing panic over housing: the prospect of a doom loop of seized up mortgage markets, fire sales by distressed buyers and falling prices is all too real, which will cause widespread screaming amongst the electorate and see the property wealth of the Tory core vote of monied pensioners especially hard hit
* The Government still has to try to sell a huge programme of freezes and cuts to social security and public services to an angry nation, which will be portrayed by the Opposition to be needless pain inflicted to stuff the mouths of the already rich with gold, because that's exactly what it is
* Beyond that, there's vast potential for Parliamentary rebellions, defections, splits, even a successful VONC and an early election
Some bright spark will be along in a moment to say "Well, what if this all works? Laffer Laffer Laffer, low taxes = growth, hooray!" Except that almost nobody has any faith that it will, and for good reason. The Thatcher Cult seems to think that Truss is their saviour but, comparing now with forty years ago, it's apparent that the two women and especially their political circumstances have very little in common. We're dealing with political and economic upheaval caused largely by the preceding period of Tory Government, not by Labour. Labour is not about to present Truss with another hard left leader at whom rocks can be thrown. When Thatcher was elected she had five years to turn the ship around, Truss only has two. Geoffrey Howe put reform ahead of tax cuts and brought taxes down as it became affordable, whereas Kwasi Kwarteng has just thrown a load of cash at the already wealthy and hoped for the best. Thatcher had North Sea oil revenues at her back and a vast stock of council houses to flog off, to raise revenue but especially to buy the support of aspirational voters, whereas Truss has neither.
Truss has been dealt a bad hand and has played it with all the finesse of a blind drunk. The 2019 voter coalition has now exploded, and a large chunk even of the surviving Tory core vote have turned their noses up. Stick a fork in her, she's done.
The first seems improbable, even allowing for Putin's losing of the plot.
The second even more so.
Now that both Boris and Corbyn are gone, and Brexit is done, in a significant way we should mentally consider the parameters of the next General Election swing as being from 2015 and 2017, not from 2019.
2019 was an anomaly.
However they have catastrophically screwed up the 'mini-budget' and the 'plan for growth'. It is hard to imagine how it could have gone worse. Everything about it was wrong. It has been about the worst imaginable start and the failure is primarily with her inability to communicate it. You cannot rule out the possibility that she will out in a few months due to incompetence at the job.
"If anyone was surprised that this was a radical financial statement, they shouldn't be."
“Well-trailed” to the Conservative Party and it’s selectorate. Why this individual thought the country’s population spent the summer following a debate addressed only to the fee-paying members of the Tory Party is beyond me. Even if those that were following it outside his party were not being addressed directly.
The manifesto that won over Tory members would not have made it in a general election. As I’ve said before, separating the choice of PM from the choice of the majority of the Commons is breaking the constitution. While there’s nothing unlawful about this manner of choosing the PM, its dangerous, for everyone, to assume the views of the Tory party membership reflect the views of the electorate.
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The moment she took the tories down the route of ideological tax cuts without any evidence the approach would work (let alone funded), she made the task impossible
She’s also set herself the target of 2.5% gdp growth which she’ll never reach
They seem to want to plough on under the assumption that the nation will somehow come to their senses and thank them.
A long shot.
A more experienced politician would either work extra time to contain the damage or adopt a new political approach. Truss seems unable and unwilling to do either.
* The already poor: cold, hunger, shoplifting, loan sharks
* The just about managing: no longer managing - mortgage defaults, fire sales, negative equity, financial ruin, moving the family back in with Mum's parents or worse
* The comfortably off: surviving but with sharp falls in disposable incomes, in turn a catastrophe for many consumer facing businesses and their soon to be sacked employees
* The rich: getting even richer thank you very much
* Everyone: rising crime and disorder, tatty streets, uncollected rubbish, collapsing public services, tripping over the street homeless on pavements everywhere, a pervading atmosphere of chaos and decline
These are not circumstances conducive to a glorious victory at the polls.
Indeed Mike, and considering that your last thread was about the NOM/Lab Maj market - a topic occupying many recent threads - please forgive me a little PB nostalgia.
Lab Maj buyers may be slightly concerned by Opinium’s Scottish subsample, which basically shows Scottish voting sentiment unchanged from 6 months ago:
SNP 45%
SLab 23%
SCon 20%
SLD 6%
oth 7%
Note that the above is almost identical to the last proper Scottish poll by Panelbase and the Sunday Times on 17-19 August:
SNP 44%
SLab 23%
SCon 20%
SLD 8%
oth 5%
If the Truss premiership has not shifted the Scottish dial then Starmer can forget Maj.
But, no, I don't "feel good". Like most people I am FUCKING angry about it. Geddit?
It could be worse, you could be a Lib Dem.
He combed his hair
Still thinking about the next couple of things
Scotland only accounts for 9% of the seats in Parliament. Labour will want a slice of that action, but ultimately it doesn't need any of them if the victory in England and Wales is big enough.
PlaysArticles attacking the government are the second most boring readnight outWhat’s the most boring?
PlaysArticles praising the government.Who makes the opening speech at the Tory party conference? Deputy Leader?
Today is looking .... dreary. And I've got to be outside, possibly on the (first storey) roof.
Advice to The Conservative Party Conference from a West Midlands chap:
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly: if the assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
With his surcease success; that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all here,
Shakespeare Macbeth
I won't let you know what I think until 8.30 am.
Truss's Tories ARE nasty. Economically stupid, morally bankrupt, politically finished. Pointing that out is not "lets all attack the Tories". Its the only way to SAVE the Tories and frankly the country.
Its no longer an academic exercise to consider a Tory ELE - every day that goes past with the Truss cabal in power advances the chances of it. Every day that goes past damages the reputation of this country internationally, damages people's options regarding jobs and housing and pensions.
So yes, another thread. And as many threads as is needed until the Tory MPs realise this is THEIR seats and their careers that will end. Simon Clarke - the supposed levelling up secretary - telling poor people that they need to make sacrifices is the most politically absurd thing its possible to imagine. He - and the rest of the party - are going to get utterly destroyed by the electorate if they carry on.
This is living history. A generational political event which will be a reference point for the next century. So yes, another thread - if thats alright for the handful of remaining lickspittles who think everything is fine.
I just don't want another 1997 wipeout, thank you. Still feel the trauma from that now.
I would vote Labour, content that it was reasonably safe to put this man and his front bench into office, albeit that the vagaries of FPTP mean that it may make more sense for me to back the Lib Dems in an effort to get rid of the local Tory. That's a bit of a coin toss in this part of the world. Regardless, I think that he's done quite well.
Credit Suisse is strongly believed to be on the verge of going pop. If/when they do, that’ll be the mother of all contagion.
Do you have confidence in Kwarteng making the right calls on this, having defenestrated the Treasury perm sec as his first act in office? I don’t.
The silver lining is that this is democracy in action, the alternative to a one party state and the chance to renew and leave behind tired ideas and politicians.
"What do you think those decisions were?"
He decided to do nothing in general, then he decided to discipline one or two of the old Corbynite loonies. Brillliant tactics - proving the Tories can be left alone to make their own mistakes, and a bit of Corbyn-bashing never goes amiss.
Plus the teeth and hair brushing.
There are lessons to be learned from history here. Look at what happened to the old Liberal Party a hundred years ago. The Conservative Party, as a major political force, has no divine right to exist.
And then there's the Canada 93 precedent to be considered as well.
If it becomes obvious that the Conservative Party cares about nothing and nobody except for higher rate taxpayers, then what reason is there for anyone other than higher rate taxpayers to endorse it? And that's the end of the Conservative Party.
Or indeed until after she’s booted out, which will quite likely be sooner.
Urging the recall of Parliament to sort the crisis and asking where Truss was
A national Green British Energy Company. Clever move: ticked at least two giant boxes of concern
Opposing the 'trickle down' economics which is nonsense at a time of economic downturn (debatable during a period of growth too)
And, yes, having the national anthem sung at the Labour Conference
etc.
What did all this say? That Labour are now the sensible person's choice.
They've taken fright at her, her attitudes and all round approach - altogether harder problem for the Tory party to solve https://twitter.com/davidmapstone/status/1576468865529397248
I'm not sure the voters find it boring.
She still looks wooden and uncertain. Starmer may be a boring old fart, but that's what's needed.
Mount, journalist and author of book about “wit and wisdom” of Boris Johnson, was appointed by former-PM
One source cites “cronyism row”; another “personal reasons”
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1576471460918759424
Liz Truss doesn't.
Regarding the US government looking at your linkedin profile, I think they can do this without identifying themselves to you pretty easily, by changing the settings to make them anonymous. So they were interested in you for some reason and didn't want you to be aware of that fact, then you would have thought that they would have done so in anonymous mode.
https://twitter.com/bob__hudson/status/1576466450352463877
https://twitter.com/chunkymark/status/1576461675569774592?s=21&t=fnNahoG1Olehs2RhINKWdQ
And she had years of leading the opposition in which to plan.
The comparison of the two is plain daft even if Truss were half as capable. Which she’s not.
I suppose it’s possible the frackers will find a Saudi style oilfield sitting alongside a goldmine in the next month… in the imagination of those who think Truss can turn it around.
You've had a good run.
At least let the Opposition have their moment of likely victory.
And in spite of all this, the Conservative election results last Thursday were quite reasonable.
I suppose one thing in Liz's favour is that her predecessor is not attending the conference. Apparently!
Is OGH a secret admirer?
Why was the Chair of the party sitting alongside Rupa Huq when she came out with her racist commentary about the most senior person of colour in the Government?
Why is David Lamm (if Guido is correct, and I see no reason why not on this one) having to apologise to Mark Fullbrook having accused him of helping rig elections in a foreign country? He's the Shadow Foreign Secretary FFS; he should take himself seriously, even if no one else is able to do so.
That's not to let Truss off, who seems not to give a toss about considering or managing the potential political downside, but we do need a credible alternative - which Labour does not have beyond the Bank Manager leading them.
At the moment Truss is a melange of Little Miss Scatterbrain and Little Miss Stubborn.
As I understand it she is very straightforward in being paid dividends. Consequently she pays a huge amount of tax which she could legally have minimised but chose not to.
A leader who looks confident rather than needy. It's not a female thing, the Baltic and East European ones look impressive. Rishi is unlucky in being too rich. Wallace could out-Starmer Keir himself.
A revival of Corbyn. Never going to happen, not now he's tied to Putin's coat tails.
A miracle.
Events, dear boy, do happen. So a change of government in Russia and a gradual return to normality.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576032417856778240
It’s a bad system with significant weaknesses, but not “breaking the constitution”