@DaveKeating Now confirmed: 🇪🇺Commission is *not* putting a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers.
In the working document circulated to capitals, the Commission warns that the idea, pushed by 15 countries, would do more harm than good.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
They have the same problem though, the maddest 1/3 of the parliamentary party get to put their candidate in front of the members and the members are likely to pick that person, and they might also pick Boris regardless of his Privileges Committee difficulties.
I suppose they could keep repeating the operation until the members come up with a sensible result but they're looking ridiculous enough already...
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
I’d say a couple of years of a slightly less insane hand on the tiller might get them back a few waverers. It won’t win them an election but could keep them about 220 seats, say.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.
And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.
The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..
And remember folks. Having been nicely warmed up on radio, she now does 16 TV interviews. Where the hacks won't just be wanting a piece of clippable audio. They will want to see her gob flapping silently. Imagine how bad they will be when she gets past 10 of these...
Oh god, it’s worse than I even imagined. I couldn’t listen to more than 2 of those. Cringeworthy in the extreme.
Reminds me of Palin/Couric.
KENT: Opens with quotes from astonished listeners and opens up with "are you ashamed of what you've done". Truss tries to claim she inherited the mess. "But you've made it worse". https://twitter.com/TobyonTV/status/1575386522597163009
A five minute local radio interview - when they are stacked one after the other - is like speed dating only its punching not dating. What prannock in Downing Street decided this was a good idea? Who is Director of Communications now?
A little while ago, Guido posted a photo of some of the special advisers that Truss had just appointed. It struck me at the time that they looked less like wise and experienced counsellors and very much more like members of a harem.
Perhaps personal appearance was not the best criterion for appointing them?
Wasn't the Finland rumour that Mistress Truss whips "adult babies"? Perhaps that was the selection criteria.
Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'
In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake
Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.
"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"
Exhibit 1: Brexit
You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.
And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.
Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.
Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged
Brexit was epochal
You're back. The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485 For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.
I really didn’t rant. PB-ers with an interest can go back and read at their leisure
I said Lizzo’s half naked twerking as she played Madison’s crystal flute (and that’s possibly the best sentence I’ve ever written on PB) can be read two ways
As an articulate piece of performance art by a smart black woman deliberately and understandably subverting a Founding Father who owned black people
Or
As another step in the American procession from culture war to civil war as Republicans and patriots simply perceive a gratuitous insult aimed squarely at them and their history
I wonder if the stock market is going south because the bond market didn't react well to Alan Partridge radio.
As I wrote yesterday about the idea that Truss could just try to style out last week's omnishambles: "with the bond markets giving journalists an instant readout of how well she is going down with the audience that really matters, that looks a bold – not to say mad – strategy. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1575401917240451072
And remember folks. Having been nicely warmed up on radio, she now does 16 TV interviews. Where the hacks won't just be wanting a piece of clippable audio. They will want to see her gob flapping silently. Imagine how bad they will be when she gets past 10 of these...
Oh god, it’s worse than I even imagined. I couldn’t listen to more than 2 of those. Cringeworthy in the extreme.
Reminds me of Palin/Couric.
Only listened to one, but she sounds like an adenoidal 6th former angrily defending poor A level results.
Other people did badly It was too hot in the exam hall I wasn’t expecting those questions You didn’t send me to a good enough school
Tory MPs are notoriously reluctant to act as we saw with BJ.....it will take an `unknown unknown' event to dislodge her - my feeling is KK may go (or BoE Governor) in the short term and she may survive.
LizT to sacrifice Kwasi in order to save herself seems plausible, and not unlike Theresa May being forced to ditch Nick and Fiona after the 2017 general election debacle. The government will no doubt be hoping it can at least get through the Conservative Party conference (starts Sunday; ends Wednesday).
ETA yes, they are friends and political allies but even so...
I think most Tory MPs know Truss is a terrible mistake but she'll stay because (a) it's too soon (b) another contest would be too disruptive and take too long and (c) they wouldn't know who they'd get.
I suspect they'd like to coronate Rishi or Wallace (which won't happen) but say they did you'd then have 50-60 kamikaze ex-Truss supporters on the backbenches sabotaging and scuppering anything the new new administration tried to do. And the majority in the House couldn't be guaranteed.
The Conservative Party really are in terrible trouble and the best thing for them now would be a GE and to go into opposition. Even better, for the kamikazes to be deselected or lose their seats as I don't think there's any other way to be rid of them.
Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas
Agree. I also strongly agree with @Casino_Royale post which makes the next two years worrying. Although I think I prefer Truss there than Boris. At least she hasn't shown herself to be dishonest or attempted to break the constitution.
The only bit I question about Casino's post is an election is not necessarily the way to get rid of what he refers as the 'kamikazes' (although I note that is a wish rather than a prediction by him). Our electoral system only gets rid of those in marginal seats who often are better MPs as they have to work harder. Many useless MPs will survive (regardless of party). And will they be deselected or might more be selected?
Surely there must be a large amount of non-wealthy Tory MPs who are looking at the Polls, listening to Truss, looking at unemployment in two years, working out that their mortgage increase coupled with their downgraded income possibilities and realising that they are buggered and their only slight chance of keeping their jobs and paying the mortgage is to risk a change of PM.
The damage has been done. Even if the Tories dumped Truss today, the brand has been badly affected. And there aren’t enough Tory MPs to form a government by the time the Johnsonites and Trussites have both been excluded and/or go and sit in a sulk.
When we look back we will wonder just how a government with a majority of 80 all elected on the same broad ideological bent (Brexit/levelling up) managed to f**k up so spectacularly in less than 3 years.
Covid plus war. I want them out as much as the next but there have been a very special set of challenges that would have tested the best administrations.
They survived Covid and war. They can't survive Liz Truss.
UK bonds extend losses after Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos https://trib.al/Q2Ug2z1
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
Tory MPs are notoriously reluctant to act as we saw with BJ.....it will take an `unknown unknown' event to dislodge her - my feeling is KK may go (or BoE Governor) in the short term and she may survive.
LizT to sacrifice Kwasi in order to save herself seems plausible, and not unlike Theresa May being forced to ditch Nick and Fiona after the 2017 general election debacle. The government will no doubt be hoping it can at least get through the Conservative Party conference (starts Sunday; ends Wednesday).
ETA yes, they are friends and political allies but even so...
I think most Tory MPs know Truss is a terrible mistake but she'll stay because (a) it's too soon (b) another contest would be too disruptive and take too long and (c) they wouldn't know who they'd get.
I suspect they'd like to coronate Rishi or Wallace (which won't happen) but say they did you'd then have 50-60 kamikaze ex-Truss supporters on the backbenches sabotaging and scuppering anything the new new administration tried to do. And the majority in the House couldn't be guaranteed.
The Conservative Party really are in terrible trouble and the best thing for them now would be a GE and to go into opposition. Even better, for the kamikazes to be deselected or lose their seats as I don't think there's any other way to be rid of them.
Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas
Agree. I also strongly agree with @Casino_Royale post which makes the next two years worrying. Although I think I prefer Truss there than Boris. At least she hasn't shown herself to be dishonest or attempted to break the constitution.
The only bit I question about Casino's post is an election is not necessarily the way to get rid of what he refers as the 'kamikazes' (although I note that is a wish rather than a prediction by him). Our electoral system only gets rid of those in marginal seats who often are better MPs as they have to work harder. Many useless MPs will survive (regardless of party). And will they be deselected or might more be selected?
It's why I like the Irish system - crap local MP of one colour - you can pick the other candidate wearing that colour and its possible that the crap candidate will be shown the door...
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
That is the wrong question. MPs will not be asking how many seats can be saved, but how can their own seat be saved.
Tories inherit steelworks Tories refuse to save steelworks Steelworks closes. Tories hand over steelworks to their mates Steelworks is demolished Steel is *imported* to start the redevelopment of the former steelworks https://twitter.com/TeesValleyCA/status/1575093656058728449
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
Tories inherit steelworks Tories refuse to save steelworks Steelworks closes. Tories hand over steelworks to their mates Steelworks is demolished Steel is *imported* to start the redevelopment of the former steelworks https://twitter.com/TeesValleyCA/status/1575093656058728449
Vote Conservative for jobs.
Technically any steel made in that Steelworks would probably cost 3 times the imported price (given current energy prices) but I agree it ain't a good look...
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
No, most of it wouldn't go to Farage.
At 28% the Tory vote has already collapsed by 17% on the GE and most of the switchers have not gone to Farage. According to the YouGov poll with Labour 17% ahead, the voting intention of Con 2019 voters is that 12% of those voting would now vote Labour, 6% Reform UK 3% the LDs, 3% Green and 2% Others. So of those switching, little more than a fifth have switched to Reform.
So even in an incredible scenario where the Tory vote collapsed to 10% (i.e. double the present collapse) there's no way that Reform/Farage would get most of the switchers. The different between the European elections and now is that any Tory switchers to Labour would not have to contemplate voting for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn, so the Euro election precedent is irrelevant.
+1 Also the reason for the Tory shift to the Brexit party in 2019 was because so many Brexit voters were annoyed at having to vote in another EU election. It was a "Get Brexit Done" vote that is simply irellevant now. So no Farage won't be getting 10+% in the next GE.
Bit surprised by this tbh. Certainly room for growth and a rise in productivity in this area at least, if only we hadn’t fcuked up trade arrangements with a whack of our neighbours.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.
And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.
The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..
Agree. The May option might be worth a long shot punt actually: what odds Theresa May next PM?
Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…
Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth · 28m RIP the narrative that Starmer shouldn’t underestimate Truss (I previously thought it was a risk for Labour). I simply cannot think of a more disastrous broadcast round.
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Daily Mail online has homed in on the derivative mechanics behind DB pensions, multiple articles this morning. Narrow escape. This is the angle the govt should try and argue from if they want to live to fight another day.
Incidentally, the big bank mortgage lenders are still advertising 5 year fixes some 300bps below swap curves. The likes of Lloyds, Barclays, Natwest. One would hope all the drama has encouraged people nearing the ends of their term to arrange an early remortgage. Of course in the final 3 mths it’s a simple login>click box>done. Earlier than that it’s an early repayment charge, which in the final year will be worth it in just about every case.
Let us see where base rates really peak at. It feels to me rather like economic reality is catching up with the world economy and the rates cycle will peak and turn far sooner than the Fed and markets expect. We’re having the recession that was supposed to happen before covid came along. Which of course caused a massive technical recession but because of the unprecedented global bail out, we didn’t see the economic adjustment mechanisms clicking into place to reset things.
I agree with an earlier poster, in the UK context Starmer will be coming to power at just the right time.
The Daily Mail thought this budget/statement was great "proper Tory budget" and wanted more, more, more.
It is not exactly an impartial reporter, but keep reading what you want to believe...
Yep, for months they and the Daily Express have been egging on Truss to be a 'proper' tory and bring about tax cuts.
Now that the disaster of this stupidity is unfolding they've spent the week headlining with other stories.
You can be right-of-centre and still be analytical and truthful. The Daily Telegraph today is particularly good (check out Jeremy Warner's piece).
The Daily Mail bears part of the blame for this crisis. Liz Truss was too weak or too stupid to stand up to them. She, and they, fed the membership what they wanted to hear. Something which bore no relation to the current economic or fiscal situation. A truthful tory campaign agenda would have promised tax cuts as soon as we can afford them, which isn't now.
Good morning
The conservative party has sealed its fate and will be out of office for a long time
However, there are two issues here that need to be recognised
Starmer has endorsed the 19% tax rate and the abolition of the NI rise at a total cost of 20 billion, all borrowed money, and he has already allocated the other 2 billion of money raised from the reduction in the 45% rate again borrowed money which contradicts his demand to cancel the mini budget
Labour will be the next government but will be facing large tax rises and cuts in the public sector, but not just due to the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss, but the worldwide rout in the bond markets causing financial mayhem across the globe
The fact is Russia invading Ukraine in an act of war which seems to have no end is going to make the west very much poorer and the strains will show for years, even decades
Starmer and labour will inherit a poisoned chalice and they will have extremely difficult decisions to make
The basic rate tax cut to 19% isn't really a tax cut because of the freezing of thresholds. If inflation is over 5%, the tax take actually increases in real terms. It would have been more tax raising without the cut, but is still a revenue raiser.
Certainly Labour will inherit a poor financial position and have difficult decisions to make, but the 19% rate is not a particularly big problem.
It is still part of the borrowed unfunded tax cuts and the narrative
I think we all need to recognise that the next labour government will be having to increase taxes and cut public spending in something that will be very difficult for them
All and sundry were calling for the energy cap for the last 6 weeks and that was ny far the biggest giveaway in the mini budget. If the Government had not done that the £ would have surged.
The other strange comments is that the Government are only interested in benefitting the rich. I don't think there has ever been a Government that has given more money away to those on a lower income than this one.(since Dec 2019). Furlough benefitted the lower income the most, UC is a pretty generous benefit and this year those on UC will get over £1000 for help with their energy bills, if you take into account the energy cap this will mean that their energy costs will be less than last year.
And everyone has forgotten the £150 rebate from Council Tax.
Perhaps someone can guide me to a Government who gave more money to those on lower incomes
Not sure about "pretty generous" for UC.
If they don't uprate it by inflation (already delayed due to the mechanism they use) then it will be even worse.
I have lots of friends on UC.
An example
Part time nurse with one child taking home £1300 Child maintenance £345 Child Benefit £90 ish UC £868.23
Total take home income per month £2603.23
Rent £750 Coucnil Tax £110.00
So after her rent and council tax she has £1,743.23 for her and her son
She has also has had the £600+ cost of living allowance from UC and will get the £400 off her energy bills.
I doubt there are many countries in the world that have such a generous benefit system.
I know this was a couple of hours ago but I couldn't help but comment since I have recent personal experience.
I had a bout of depression earlier this year and had to quit my job (I was a self employed contractor so no sick pay) and apply for UC for a couple of months. As a single person over 25 I got £622 per month plus council tax support.
This was a massive decrease from my previous income so I had to burn through my savings just to pay the bills until I felt well enough to work again. The contribution to housing costs had a deliberate deduction of £150 per month as it was above the limit for my local area so I also had to make up the difference myself.
There are definitely instances as you say when combined with child support the payments can be higher. If you're working part time it obviously helps but the taper rate means the UC awarded decreases very quickly.
For single people not lucky enough to have savings like I did and people who don't have part time work UC is not generous. I'm saddened that you used what sounds an extreme case to attempt to suggest the average UC recipient should be grateful for a "generous" system.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
They have the same problem though, the maddest 1/3 of the parliamentary party get to put their candidate in front of the members and the members are likely to pick that person, and they might also pick Boris regardless of his Privileges Committee difficulties.
I suppose they could keep repeating the operation until the members come up with a sensible result but they're looking ridiculous enough already...
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.
And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.
The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..
Agree. The May option might be worth a long shot punt actually: what odds Theresa May next PM?
Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…
Tories inherit steelworks Tories refuse to save steelworks Steelworks closes. Tories hand over steelworks to their mates Steelworks is demolished Steel is *imported* to start the redevelopment of the former steelworks https://twitter.com/TeesValleyCA/status/1575093656058728449
Vote Conservative for jobs.
Technically any steel made in that Steelworks would probably cost 3 times the imported price (given current energy prices) but I agree it ain't a good look...
That 3 times the imported price is ignoring the cost of benefits paid out to all those who lose their jobs either directy or as a knock-on effect.
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that get my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
In fairness to the MPs I don't think it was *that* obvious at the time that Sunak couldn't win with the members. Didn't the markets have him odds-on at one point during the MP rounds? That might be my memory playing tricks on me but he definitely wasn't trading an "obviously doomed" kind of price.
The final round of MP voting when Penny dropped out was 20th July. Opinion polling on final 2 taken before this shown here:
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
Indeed, it just wasn't as obvious with May or Brown because they provided more continuity, and somewhat more obvious with Johnson. If Truss indeed either crashes the economy, the state, or most likely both, there will gradually be heavy pressure for some form of constitutional change on this.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Yes. The construction of that sentence.
Mind, Merton mathematicians' reputation used to be pretty good. Heytesbury, Bradwardine, Wiles ... and Reggie Maudling also went there.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Yes. The construction of that sentence.
I'm blaming auto-correct.
Surely it's Putin's fault. Or Remainers.
Putin added the "a" but I think it was because Starmer spooked the market that the jarring comma appeared.
And remember folks. Having been nicely warmed up on radio, she now does 16 TV interviews. Where the hacks won't just be wanting a piece of clippable audio. They will want to see her gob flapping silently. Imagine how bad they will be when she gets past 10 of these...
Oh god, it’s worse than I even imagined. I couldn’t listen to more than 2 of those. Cringeworthy in the extreme.
Reminds me of Palin/Couric.
Only listened to one, but she sounds like an adenoidal 6th former angrily defending poor A level results.
I've always thought she sounded like a very inconfident schoolgirl desperately trying to learn public speaking.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.
repeating the same point again and again and again doesn't make it any more correct
What do you think triggered the markets then, if not how I just explained 🙂
The Chancellor presented a set of figures that made no sense and sidelined the OBR. Then doubled down on the inanity of it over the weekend.
I agree all those wrong vibes didn’t help him achieve the task in hand of not spooking the markets, yes you are correct listing those I agree are mistakes he made.
But you appreciate those mistakes alone don’t trigger the market, for they are not the cause of the market concern? Is UK in position to borrow a quarter of a trillion for a regressive hand outs programme is the fundamental issue or question the markets have been wrestling with.
Can you see that difference, between communication errors, and a fundamental issue the markets need us to address?
We did this before, though. The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now). Coupling it with a program of tax cuts - promising growth but providing no justification for that other than the bare assertion - is what made it fiscally incredible. Tacking a tax cut only for the wealthiest on top of that made it political suicide.
“Regressive” is a red herring; you could address that through the tax system. The basic problem is that any energy price cap that’s effective would be very expensive. Now you could argue we shouldn’t have capped energy prices, but the economic fallout from that might well be equally severe.
What no politician has really been honest about is how much the spike in energy prices has cost us. As I’ve said before, it’s made the country significantly poorer, and the argument is really about how that pain is shared out. That we don’t know how long it might last makes it harder still. A new government isn’t going to change that.
If successive governments hadn’t put off decisions about nuclear and renewables for a decade or more while we relied on cheap imported gas, we’d be in a considerably better position. And if course those needed investment are going to cost a great deal more to finance, now.
It’s not often I post to you I think you’ve got this very wrong Nigel, have another think. But, here goes. 2 bits to your current thinking for you to think again on (this same challenge for vast majority of posters on here too in the same thinking as you)
Firstly, do you think Kwarzi scrapping Gordon Brown’s top rate of tax was not just very wrong moment politically, but a regressive tax measure in taxation terms? At the heart of my argument, regressive tax changes can lead to increased income inequality placing a greater financial burden on low-income households compared to everyone else, even outside times of crisis like this it creates two nations, apartheid of the pocket.
But you also understand what Kwarteng done with that, everyone is howling about, is STILL ONLY about 0.02% as “regressive” as Kwartengs looming £100B giveaway to people who don’t need it, including the top 1% again, and you still currently support him doing that? And you claim this two nations and apartheid of the pocket £100B giveaway will be easily addressed by the tax system, if someone is minded to do that?
Secondly you claim “The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now)” to which I reply BOLLOCKS. It doesn’t have to be a freeze, it doesn’t have to be set at the high amount, it doesn’t have to be locked in as that long from the start (furlough wasn’t) it doesn’t have to be so set in stone now instead of evolving, made cheaper, blended into a hybrid with other options that target help, It’s such UTTERLY LAZY politics to draw a line with - there was no other option, can’t do anything about that now - and UTTERLY WRONG for us to allow Truss to get away with “there was no other option, it was right for us to provide that help on bills, can’t do anything about that now” Whilst The pound, Homes, Pensions, Incomes all sheltering in bunkers at the moment to protect a policy that is fundamentally regressive, and government should still be working hard to bring down that quarter of a trillion of borrowing by three fifths, with a more out the box, blended style of household bill support - not just to stop it being so regressive, but It’s also the only way out this confidence crisis with the markets.
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Did you listen to this morning's interviews?
Can you imagine next PMQs?
The unstoppable force of Truss's uselessness is about to hit the immovable object of the Tory party's leadership rules. I wouldn't wanna bet either way on the outcome.
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.
Understandable. Existing Tory voters do have the SLDs or Slab to vote for rather than the SNP, but it's all very complex. On the othjer hand, the leading Unionists have trashed their key promises - EU membership, defence capability, federalism, and now currency.
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ "No" Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.
AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:
"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner
If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.
If anything, doesn’t this sort of indicate any potential consequence of attempting to either 1) create a new currency or 2) base plans on using sterling still, run by a dysfunctional English govt
I dunno. Seems to me most of us are waiting for the inevitable Labour government now
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Indeed
Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc
Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical
The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here
Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'
In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake
Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.
"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"
Exhibit 1: Brexit
You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.
And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.
Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.
Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged
Brexit was epochal
You're back. The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485 For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.
My wife has an ancient Rudall & Rose flute from the mid-19th century. These are made of wood, unlike the later metal Boehm flutes that are the pattern for modern orchestra flutes.
If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
In fairness to the MPs I don't think it was *that* obvious at the time that Sunak couldn't win with the members. Didn't the markets have him odds-on at one point during the MP rounds? That might be my memory playing tricks on me but he definitely wasn't trading an "obviously doomed" kind of price.
The final round of MP voting when Penny dropped out was 20th July. Opinion polling on final 2 taken before this shown here:
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
It is. Before now though i think parties and politicians have usually had the good sense of fair play to present their case as being some sort of continuity to what came before, I.e not a radical departure from the previous incumbent.
Major pledged to abolish the poll tax, but essentially he was promising Thatcherite economic policy but with a more understanding/kinder face.
Brown was promising to govern as New Labour but with a shift of emphasis from the presidential politics of Blair and with hints of a slight leftward shift, but nothing overly radical.
May wasn’t really promising significant change from Cameroon politics other than a focus on Brexit.
Even Boris wasn’t pledging to rip up the TMay rule book, the emphasis was more on getting Brexit done and getting rid of the May deal (and in any event he had an election shortly after taking office).
What we have seen here is I think rather unprecedented in terms of tearing up the economic policy of the outgoing government.
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.
AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:
"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner
If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."
There can't be a VONC within 12 months of a leader winning the previous VONC. I've never heard that a new leader gets a 12 month grace period...
It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules. 2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk. 3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda. 4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
It's not a loop hole it's a feature.
1 and 2 are features, 4 is the loop hole. The current Government was elected on the 2019 manifesto. While they are not, nor should they be, legally bound to carry it out, the manifesto is a kind of promise that 'if you elect us, we'll try and do this kind of stuff'. The winning party forms a Government that has a mandate from the people to do that kind of stuff. If a new Government comes in, without an election, their mandate has not changed and they are still bound to their promise. So while a new Government is not obligated to stick to a manifesto, there is a lighter principal at work that, if a new Government seeks to radically divert from their manifesto, indeed act contrary to it, they have a moral duty to seek a fresh mandate. That, I believe, is where the loophole lies. Not sure how you close it without sacrificing other bits of the system but certainly feels a bit like a loop hole.
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Indeed
Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc
Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical
The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here
Weirdly excitable? Aren't you the chap who thinks UFOs are promoting a Woke War, and some nutty Professors from Ukraine are having extra-marital sexual relations with an inter-gender extraterrestrial?
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.
AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:
"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner
If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."
There can't be a VONC within 12 months of a leader winning the previous VONC. I've never heard that a new leader gets a 12 month grace period...
Can someone clarify but I think I'm right on this. @HYUFD
Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'
In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake
Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.
"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"
Exhibit 1: Brexit
You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.
And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.
Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.
Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged
Brexit was epochal
You're back. The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485 For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.
My wife has an ancient Rudall & Rose flute from the mid-19th century. These are made of wood, unlike the later metal Boehm flutes that are the pattern for modern orchestra flutes.
If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.
Hold on are you sure you're not getting Leon mixed up with Paul Watson ?
Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!
Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.
True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.
That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).
It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...
It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...
In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.
How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?
An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.
And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.
The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..
Agree. The May option might be worth a long shot punt actually: what odds Theresa May next PM?
Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…
Just another woke publication read by woke bankers and woke currency traders when they’ve finished reading their copy of the woke FT. Wouldn’t pay it any attention. They are actually all terrified of the prospect of Keir Starmer as PM but can’t admit it to their woke colleagues. https://twitter.com/StuartWilksHeeg/status/1575381851572674561/photo/1
A reminder. Liz Truss votes for PM: 81,316 Count Binface votes for mayor: 92,896 I have a bigger political mandate than her. And I’m not hiding. #BinTruss #BringInBinface
Personally, I am looking forward to the result of the 8am radio round with PM. I wonder if any journos will have the nerve to put her on the spot and ask why rewarding the rich whilst penalising the poor is a good idea? Or wiping out the country's reputation?
Asking her why she thought it a good idea to do something which has destroyed so much value in companies and peoples' savings might be a better question.
Just to say I was totally and utterly wrong about Truss, I assumed she was just telling the members what they wanted to hear and she'd pivot when she got the job.
My general mental model of British politicians is that they're smart people with good advice while the voters are less well informed and the media tries hard to make them dumber, and I *think* that's still mostly the right model, but whoa, it didn't work this time.
There is a maxim that smart people can be made dumb and dangerous by ideology, and this potentially applies here.
Truss always came across as a cartoon neoliberal airhead in the Cameron years. I thought that this type of politician had been consigned to history after Brexit. But I was wrong about that. They are back, in power but based on no mandate and very little support for their policies, and too afraid (or arrogant) to call an election, and determined to cause chaos and misery through 'shock therapy' designed to address the irresponsibility of err.. their own, previous policies.
If they don't get rid of her, and they probably won't, this is potentially an extinction level event for the tories.
The thing is this isn't even neoliberal ideology. It's not any ideology. Huge tax cut when you have inflation running away and interest rates are going to have to go up? What, no. If neoliberal ideology says anything about this situation, it would be to raise taxes a bit and cut spending a lot.
There's no coherent *system* of thought that says you should do this. There's only a *habit* of thought, which is kind of, believe things that you want to be true, and ignore or fire any annoying expert who says it won't work.
Yes but a lot of politics is pseudo religious like this. Maybe they thought they would cause chaos with the announcement and then 'slash the state' to get things in order?
The problem though is that they have no democratic mandate, and any 'emergency' is one that it is absolutely clear to everyone that they have created themselves.
My guess is that a large part of the electorate won't buy it, and won't vote Conservative ever again. The tories can just become a pensioners/nimby lobbying group.
The government has done a huge amount of damage to the value of peoples pensions and companies. When that penny drops with pensioners, they won't get even their votes.
Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.
Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre
I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake. double check my checking if you like.
Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.
My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.
What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.
So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.
Simples.
Any questions?
That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.
To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.
The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.
Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.
repeating the same point again and again and again doesn't make it any more correct
What do you think triggered the markets then, if not how I just explained 🙂
The Chancellor presented a set of figures that made no sense and sidelined the OBR. Then doubled down on the inanity of it over the weekend.
I agree all those wrong vibes didn’t help him achieve the task in hand of not spooking the markets, yes you are correct listing those I agree are mistakes he made.
But you appreciate those mistakes alone don’t trigger the market, for they are not the cause of the market concern? Is UK in position to borrow a quarter of a trillion for a regressive hand outs programme is the fundamental issue or question the markets have been wrestling with.
Can you see that difference, between communication errors, and a fundamental issue the markets need us to address?
We did this before, though. The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now). Coupling it with a program of tax cuts - promising growth but providing no justification for that other than the bare assertion - is what made it fiscally incredible. Tacking a tax cut only for the wealthiest on top of that made it political suicide.
“Regressive” is a red herring; you could address that through the tax system. The basic problem is that any energy price cap that’s effective would be very expensive. Now you could argue we shouldn’t have capped energy prices, but the economic fallout from that might well be equally severe.
What no politician has really been honest about is how much the spike in energy prices has cost us. As I’ve said before, it’s made the country significantly poorer, and the argument is really about how that pain is shared out. That we don’t know how long it might last makes it harder still. A new government isn’t going to change that.
If successive governments hadn’t put off decisions about nuclear and renewables for a decade or more while we relied on cheap imported gas, we’d be in a considerably better position. And if course those needed investment are going to cost a great deal more to finance, now.
It’s not often I post to you I think you’ve got this very wrong Nigel, have another think. But, here goes. 2 bits to your current thinking for you to think again on (this same challenge for vast majority of posters on here too in the same thinking as you)
Firstly, do you think Kwarzi scrapping Gordon Brown’s top rate of tax was not just very wrong moment politically, but a regressive tax measure in taxation terms? At the heart of my argument, regressive tax changes can lead to increased income inequality placing a greater financial burden on low-income households compared to everyone else, even outside times of crisis like this it creates two nations, apartheid of the pocket.
But you also understand what Kwarteng done with that, everyone is howling about, is STILL ONLY about 0.02% as “regressive” as Kwartengs looming £100B giveaway to people who don’t need it, including the top 1% again, and you still currently support him doing that? And you claim this two nations and apartheid of the pocket £100B giveaway will be easily addressed by the tax system, if someone is minded to do that?
Secondly you claim “The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now)” to which I reply BOLLOCKS. It doesn’t have to be a freeze, it doesn’t have to be set at the high amount, it doesn’t have to be locked in as that long from the start (furlough wasn’t) it doesn’t have to be so set in stone now instead of evolving, made cheaper, blended into a hybrid with other options that target help, It’s such UTTERLY LAZY politics to draw a line with - there was no other option, can’t do anything about that now - and UTTERLY WRONG for us to allow Truss to get away with “there was no other option, it was right for us to provide that help on bills, can’t do anything about that now” Whilst The pound, Homes, Pensions, Incomes all sheltering in bunkers at the moment to protect a policy that is fundamentally regressive, and government should still be working hard to bring down that quarter of a trillion of borrowing by three fifths, with a more out the box, blended style of household bill support - not just to stop it being so regressive, but It’s also the only way out this confidence crisis with the markets.
If you guys don’t think “revisiting the expensive borrowing for the Bill Freeze” is the only way out of confidence crisis the markets now have with us, then we have reached the end of arguing the toss on that point. Let’s just sit back on that one, and watch me proved right.
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Indeed
Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc
Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical
The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here
Weirdly excitable? Aren't you the chap who thinks UFOs are promoting a Woke War, and some nutty Professors from Ukraine are having extra-marital sexual relations with an inter-gender extraterrestrial?
Yes, that’s me. Yet I am oddly calm this morning. Perhaps I am just @contrarian
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Yes. The construction of that sentence.
I'm blaming auto-correct.
Surely it's Putin's fault. Or Remainers.
Putin added the "a" but I think it was because Starmer spooked the market that the jarring comma appeared.
She is actually more of an existential threat to this Country now than Putin is, no?
🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.
If anything, doesn’t this sort of indicate any potential consequence of attempting to either 1) create a new currency or 2) base plans on using sterling still, run by a dysfunctional English govt
I dunno. Seems to me most of us are waiting for the inevitable Labour government now
For sure, but I was thinking more as in when the balance of risk moves from stay to go. For me, personally, a lot would have to happen for the risk of independence to outweigh the risk of staying.
I'm also awaiting the inevitable Labour Government.
"If the markets’ gamble is to explore whether they or Tory MPs blink first, I promise you that the former will make a killing" - essential @PaulGoodmanCH on Truss, for whom "there are now no good options"
🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇
Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
Indeed
Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc
Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical
The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here
Weirdly excitable? Aren't you the chap who thinks UFOs are promoting a Woke War, and some nutty Professors from Ukraine are having extra-marital sexual relations with an inter-gender extraterrestrial?
Yes, that’s me. Yet I am oddly calm this morning. Perhaps I am just @contrarian
Cool OK. I suspect you're feeling calmer because your programmer has recognised you've gone down a bit of an alt right rabbit hole.
Bit surprised by this tbh. Certainly room for growth and a rise in productivity in this area at least, if only we hadn’t fcuked up trade arrangements with a whack of our neighbours.
I believe that U.K. cheese production is either mega produced (Cheddars etc) or artisan specialist stuff. Not much mid-range,
You need to be careful with some industries about productivity - in “luxury” brands the high price from lots of skilled labour is a feature, not a bug.
It's funny how many of the posters on here who screeched and wailed about the evils of Europe and desired Brexit above everything else, are now condemning the government that gave them exactly what you wanted.
Your desire for Brexit got us extremists into government. Each PM has been more 'extreme' than the last: but it did not matter, as long as you got Brexit.
Although I bet most of you are fairly well-off, and so won't suffer too much in the economic downturn *your* perverted dream has caused.
Agreed. Surely this is the Singapore-on-Thames Brexit that the ERG dreamed of.
Brexit itself was bad enough but the calibre of Brexiteer governments that it brought in in its wake has been a total disaster
It isn't SoT. Yet. The market calamity has collapsed our room to maneuverer. So we must have Massive Spending Cuts. And a Bonfire of Regulations. So that the workshy scum which is the British working people will be forced to finally work hard for their masters.
In late November, the plan is to take an axe to the safety net, to support services, and to all the woke things that make us soft. To your rights as an employee, to your rights as a resident, to your rights as a human being in a western democracy.
They talk about fracking and planning. That means they can develop land next to you without you having a say. Without your NIMBY consent. The creation of these Special Economic Zones where private cabals can do what they like in a low tax low regulation free-for-all.
Will it be good for the public? Hell no. Will it be great for Tory donors and patrons? Oh yeah. cf South Tees Development Corporation for a road map. Note that BBC Tees asked about local sea life death. Which the Mayor insists is nothing at all to do with dredging done by STDC's masters with no public oversight.
We're not SoT yet but it's been made fairly clear that that's the direction we are headed.
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
I think the Tories had the most highest stable core vote.
But you only have to look at the Tory voters on here to see that their votes have gone in the next election and if their votes have gone how many other core voters are willing to vote Labour once to ensure Labour has the majority needed to fix the forthcoming mess..
"Correction: economists expect -0.4% growth in 2023"
Yes, quite a major error!
8.8% is the expected inflation rate, it’s not -8.8% GDP
That would be worse than Covid
However -0.4% seems optimistic to me. This war isn’t going anywhere and all the risks are on the downside
OECD had them on -0.7% next year in Tuesdays figure release. Of course i am not an economist but given Germany's susceptibility to energy disruption, the panicked German Green calls for keeping nuclear going, the very weak Euro and the ECB lagging everyone (even the BoE) in acting, id probably be temoted to bet on a larger drop.
Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'
In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake
Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.
"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"
Exhibit 1: Brexit
You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.
And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.
Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.
Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged
Brexit was epochal
You're back. The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485 For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.
My wife has an ancient Rudall & Rose flute from the mid-19th century. These are made of wood, unlike the later metal Boehm flutes that are the pattern for modern orchestra flutes.
If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.
I damn near cried at the state of a Stradivarius in the Ashmollean, years ago.
I was doing some part time stuff there as a student. The restoration people told me that they had argued for it to be played, but management wouldn’t listen.
If only they had pointed this out last week before it become blatantly obvious....
The fact it's taken them until Thursday to notice what should have been clear at 10pm on Sunday night as this week's Forex market kicked off tells you how stupid and incompetent they all are..
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.
AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:
"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner
If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."
There can't be a VONC within 12 months of a leader winning the previous VONC. I've never heard that a new leader gets a 12 month grace period...
Surely, that VONC only applies to that leader who has been VONCed? No reason why the MPs should have to wait 12 months before they can undo a completely bat-shit crazy PM imposed on them by the members?
🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇
Terrible man. Imagine that, you get something out and then you want to have a pint after with the people who helped on it.
Controversial, but do we know if Truss / Kwateng have any sort of special needs? They both seem to be on the spectrum somewhat in terms of social perception
🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇
Kwarteng and Truss aren't idiots so they'll need to find some way to square the circle come November. Further cuts to local Gov't looks one on the books to me, so everyone will get a huge council tax rise to go along with the big mortgage increase particularly in red wall areas. I thought my seat Bassetlaw would be Tory for a long long time but I'm not sure about that any more. I'll be voting Starmer anyway - could be a tight marginal.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Yes. The construction of that sentence.
I'm blaming auto-correct.
Surely it's Putin's fault. Or Remainers.
Putin added the "a" but I think it was because Starmer spooked the market that the jarring comma appeared.
She is actually more of an existential threat to this Country now than Putin is, no?
Politically (if you mean the UK), but possibly not geographically (if you mean the island we live on).
@MarqueeMark , forget the party politics, but are you lobbying Jonathan Reynolds to get your Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon up and running after day one of any change in Government? Time might be ticking.
I'm waiting until next month, to lobby Prime Minister Ben Wallace.....
MIRAS is almost certainly going to be back on the cards. As with energy bills, there is no way the Government is going to let households - particularly such a key demographic - take such a hit.
Also expect a reverse ferret of the Bank of England unwinding its QE programme. To some degree, it has already happened.
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
Farage and his parties benefit from PR systems - I don't know how well Reform or any new vehicle would do in FPTP.
This is why I think Tories going down to 15-20% in a GE would probably lead to Lab and LDs gaining almost all, with a Faragist party maybe picking up a handful of seats.
Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.
Did you listen to this morning's interviews?
Can you imagine next PMQs?
The unstoppable force of Truss's uselessness is about to hit the immovable object of the Tory party's leadership rules. I wouldn't wanna bet either way on the outcome.
Caught some of it. She's bad. Very bad. She's got a rough old time coming, at PMQs and elsewhere. But I think they'll probably stick with her and that price was just too tempting.
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
I think the Tories had the most highest stable core vote.
But you only have to look at the Tory voters on here to see that their votes have gone in the next election and if their votes have gone how many other core voters are willing to vote Labour once to ensure Labour has the majority needed to fix the forthcoming mess..
This is actually a really good argument for why Labour could win a majority - and a decent one (70+) at that.
If there are enough Tory voters who are willing to lend their vote to Labour then it shows that the taboo on voting for Labour has been broken. The alternatives of continuity Truss or a hung Parliament are worse. So more people vote Labour to prevent a HP, and as a result the trickle turns into a flood - and kapow, significant shifts in voting patterns and seat changes.
Many Tory voters would have mortgages and private pensions .
Amongst their OAP core vote the pension aspect will be most damaging . The Tories were willing to recklessly gamble your retirement plans away . That should be the opposition message to that group.
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
I think the Tories had the most highest stable core vote.
But you only have to look at the Tory voters on here to see that their votes have gone in the next election and if their votes have gone how many other core voters are willing to vote Labour once to ensure Labour has the majority needed to fix the forthcoming mess..
It's a good point and I am going to respond with my opinion and just ignore the evidence (why not, it seems like what a lot of us do here anyway).
I am going to argue that the Tories who post here are not typical of the core Tory vote. This site is very untypical in so many ways than the average person (older, brighter, very politically aware, etc).
It is worth noting how many of those ex-Tory voters on here are not just any old Tory voters. They are the core of the Tories, many in significant positions in the party, very politically aware. If they have nearly all gone and this was a linear trend then that would imply a general Tory vote in the low single digit percentages. But it isn't, so I don't think looking at our Tory voters here is representative of the party as a whole.
Hopefully that opinion had some basis in logic, even if it lacked evidence. Or of course it could also be complete bollocks by me.
Many Tory voters would have mortgages and private pensions .
Amongst their OAP core vote the pension aspect will be most damaging . The Tories were willing to recklessly gamble your retirement plans away . That should be the opposition message to that group.
Not really. OAPs are already drawing on their pensions, or have annuities.
It's those in their 40/50/60 which will be worried about their pension come their retirement which will really be sweating.
Comments
Now confirmed: 🇪🇺Commission is *not* putting a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers.
In the working document circulated to capitals, the Commission warns that the idea, pushed by 15 countries, would do more harm than good.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1575411128628396032
I suppose they could keep repeating the operation until the members come up with a sensible result but they're looking ridiculous enough already...
And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.
The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..
I said Lizzo’s half naked twerking as she played Madison’s crystal flute (and that’s possibly the best sentence I’ve ever written on PB) can be read two ways
As an articulate piece of performance art by a smart black woman deliberately and understandably subverting a Founding Father who owned black people
Or
As another step in the American procession from culture war to civil war as Republicans and patriots
simply perceive a gratuitous insult aimed squarely at them and their history
Or, indeed, and more likely: it is both
Here’s the vid. Decide for yourselves
https://twitter.com/lizzo/status/1574992141054464000?s=46&t=3Hzg_ZkN6hX0NwuQPf_rgg
Other people did badly
It was too hot in the exam hall
I wasn’t expecting those questions
You didn’t send me to a good enough school
The only bit I question about Casino's post is an election is not necessarily the way to get rid of what he refers as the 'kamikazes' (although I note that is a wish rather than a prediction by him). Our electoral system only gets rid of those in marginal seats who often are better MPs as they have to work harder. Many useless MPs will survive (regardless of party). And will they be deselected or might more be selected?
Charlie Stross
@cstross
I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
Betting PostFootball: latest wibble on some forthcoming matches in Serie A and Ligue 1 (Bundesliga, La Liga, and EPL covered recently too).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/09/serie-and-ligue-1-thoughts.html
Tories inherit steelworks
Tories refuse to save steelworks
Steelworks closes.
Tories hand over steelworks to their mates
Steelworks is demolished
Steel is *imported* to start the redevelopment of the former steelworks
https://twitter.com/TeesValleyCA/status/1575093656058728449
Vote Conservative for jobs. Where local Tory mayor suggests the best question for the PM is "who makes the best parmo" https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/1575210632676139008
I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....
Also the reason for the Tory shift to the Brexit party in 2019 was because so many Brexit voters were annoyed at having to vote in another EU election. It was a "Get Brexit Done" vote that is simply irellevant now. So no Farage won't be getting 10+% in the next GE.
Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…
Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth
·
28m
RIP the narrative that Starmer shouldn’t underestimate Truss (I previously thought it was a risk for Labour). I simply cannot think of a more disastrous broadcast round.
One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.
I had a bout of depression earlier this year and had to quit my job (I was a self employed contractor so no sick pay) and apply for UC for a couple of months. As a single person over 25 I got £622 per month plus council tax support.
This was a massive decrease from my previous income so I had to burn through my savings just to pay the bills until I felt well enough to work again. The contribution to housing costs had a deliberate deduction of £150 per month as it was above the limit for my local area so I also had to make up the difference myself.
There are definitely instances as you say when combined with child support the payments can be higher. If you're working part time it obviously helps but the taper rate means the UC awarded decreases very quickly.
For single people not lucky enough to have savings like I did and people who don't have part time work UC is not generous. I'm saddened that you used what sounds an extreme case to attempt to suggest the average UC recipient should be grateful for a "generous" system.
1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules.
2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk.
3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda.
4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.
Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?
Truss’s unofficial economic advisor, Patrick Minford: “EVERYONE EXCEPT ME IS AN IDIOT.”
You cannot run a G7 economy from a throne of arrogance and denial. ~AA
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1575418466932236288/photo/1
I would have fancied my chances vs Hunt and my platform would have been to disband the Conservative party and walk the cabinet into the sea.
SunakIsAContender was pure CenteristPundit Brain.
Cabinet ministers privately raising concerns about Kwasi Kwarteng's £45billion package of cuts
They believe she got the timing wrong by announcing such an enormous package of tax cuts at a time of soaring inflation
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575420212240850945
2 bits to your current thinking for you to think again on (this same challenge for vast majority of posters on here too in the same thinking as you)
Firstly, do you think Kwarzi scrapping Gordon Brown’s top rate of tax was not just very wrong moment politically, but a regressive tax measure in taxation terms? At the heart of my argument, regressive tax changes can lead to increased income inequality placing a greater financial burden on low-income households compared to everyone else, even outside times of crisis like this it creates two nations, apartheid of the pocket.
But you also understand what Kwarteng done with that, everyone is howling about, is STILL ONLY about 0.02% as “regressive” as Kwartengs looming £100B giveaway to people who don’t need it, including the top 1% again, and you still currently support him doing that? And you claim this two nations and apartheid of the pocket £100B giveaway will be easily addressed by the tax system, if someone is minded to do that?
Secondly you claim “The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now)” to which I reply BOLLOCKS. It doesn’t have to be a freeze, it doesn’t have to be set at the high amount, it doesn’t have to be locked in as that long from the start (furlough wasn’t) it doesn’t have to be so set in stone now instead of evolving, made cheaper, blended into a hybrid with other options that target help, It’s such UTTERLY LAZY politics to draw a line with - there was no other option, can’t do anything about that now - and UTTERLY WRONG for us to allow Truss to get away with “there was no other option, it was right for us to provide that help on bills, can’t do anything about that now” Whilst The pound, Homes, Pensions, Incomes all sheltering in bunkers at the moment to protect a policy that is fundamentally regressive, and government should still be working hard to
bring down that quarter of a trillion of borrowing by three fifths, with a more out the box, blended style of household bill support - not just to stop it being so regressive, but It’s also the only way out this confidence crisis with the markets.
Can you imagine next PMQs?
The unstoppable force of Truss's uselessness is about to hit the immovable object of the Tory party's leadership rules. I wouldn't wanna bet either way on the outcome.
AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:
"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner
If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."
I dunno. Seems to me most of us are waiting for the inevitable Labour government now
Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc
Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical
The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here
If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.
Along with how they could allow the bat-shit crazy Truss be the candidate against him.
Major pledged to abolish the poll tax, but essentially he was promising Thatcherite economic policy but with a more understanding/kinder face.
Brown was promising to govern as New Labour but with a shift of emphasis from the presidential politics of Blair and with hints of a slight leftward shift, but nothing overly radical.
May wasn’t really promising significant change from Cameroon politics other than a focus on Brexit.
Even Boris wasn’t pledging to rip up the TMay rule book, the emphasis was more on getting Brexit done and getting rid of the May deal (and in any event he had an election shortly after taking office).
What we have seen here is I think rather unprecedented in terms of tearing up the economic policy of the outgoing government.
Another said they were genuinely depressed
There is *a lot* of unhappiness out there
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575421151467257857
The average mortgage is £4,800 a year more expensive than they were in December.
That's up £1,000 since... last Thursday. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575421124887957507/photo/1
Paul Holmes, who was elected in 2019, asked yesterday: 'Where on earth is the PM and chancellor to reassure people?'
Steve Brine, former minister, said they've gone 'totally awol'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575420818942722049
LOL
8.8% is the expected inflation rate, it’s not -8.8% GDP
That would be worse than Covid
However -0.4% seems optimistic to me. This war isn’t going anywhere and all the risks are on the downside
Liz Truss votes for PM: 81,316
Count Binface votes for mayor: 92,896
I have a bigger political mandate than her.
And I’m not hiding.
#BinTruss #BringInBinface
https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1575128060143321088
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-crisis-a-tough-week-for-trussonomics
So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.
PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.
I'm also awaiting the inevitable Labour Government.
LT: "How do you think it went?"
Spad: "....."
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-bbc-radio-economy-28109436
https://conservativehome.com/2022/09/29/sacking-kwarteng-wouldnt-solve-trusss-problems/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/574b950c-3f6a-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d?shareToken=4c57214cad93b2c9d2bb0338da72e0d0
You need to be careful with some industries about productivity - in “luxury” brands the high price from lots of skilled labour is a feature, not a bug.
But you only have to look at the Tory voters on here to see that their votes have gone in the next election and if their votes have gone how many other core voters are willing to vote Labour once to ensure Labour has the majority needed to fix the forthcoming mess..
I was doing some part time stuff there as a student. The restoration people told me that they had argued for it to be played, but management wouldn’t listen.
The fact it's taken them until Thursday to notice what should have been clear at 10pm on Sunday night as this week's Forex market kicked off tells you how stupid and incompetent they all are..
I thought my seat Bassetlaw would be Tory for a long long time but I'm not sure about that any more. I'll be voting Starmer anyway - could be a tight marginal.
Also expect a reverse ferret of the Bank of England unwinding its QE programme. To some degree, it has already happened.
This is why I think Tories going down to 15-20% in a GE would probably lead to Lab and LDs gaining almost all, with a Faragist party maybe picking up a handful of seats.
If there are enough Tory voters who are willing to lend their vote to Labour then it shows that the taboo on voting for Labour has been broken. The alternatives of continuity Truss or a hung Parliament are worse. So more people vote Labour to prevent a HP, and as a result the trickle turns into a flood - and kapow, significant shifts in voting patterns and seat changes.
Amongst their OAP core vote the pension aspect will be most damaging . The Tories were willing to recklessly gamble your retirement plans away . That should be the opposition message to that group.
I am going to argue that the Tories who post here are not typical of the core Tory vote. This site is very untypical in so many ways than the average person (older, brighter, very politically aware, etc).
It is worth noting how many of those ex-Tory voters on here are not just any old Tory voters. They are the core of the Tories, many in significant positions in the party, very politically aware. If they have nearly all gone and this was a linear trend then that would imply a general Tory vote in the low single digit percentages. But it isn't, so I don't think looking at our Tory voters here is representative of the party as a whole.
Hopefully that opinion had some basis in logic, even if it lacked evidence. Or of course it could also be complete bollocks by me.
It's those in their 40/50/60 which will be worried about their pension come their retirement which will really be sweating.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1575403072842567681?s=20&t=gzZORqyFUviREKbdeWNSyg