Punters now betting that Truss will be out next year – politicalbetting.com

@DaveKeating
Now confirmed: 🇪🇺Commission is *not* putting a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers.

In the working document circulated to capitals, the Commission warns that the idea, pushed by 15 countries, would do more harm than good.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1575411128628396032

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.

That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).

It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...

It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...

In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.

How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?

I’d say a couple of years of a slightly less insane hand on the tiller might get them back a few waverers. It won’t win them an election but could keep them about 220 seats, say.

ClippP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

numbertwelve said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Oh Dear God:

Lancashire. A giggle. Silence where you can hear her gob flapping wordless when asked if she knows where Preston New Road is https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1575389891453648901
Stoke. Prolonged Silence when asked about her putting our mortgages up by more than she's giving on energy https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1575395660018368514
Leeds: Where you been? https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1575381418464739328
Brissle: This is the same scripted answer. https://twitter.com/TobyonTV/status/1575393556067393538
Tees: are you looking at sea-life deaths? Errrrrr https://twitter.com/BBCTees/status/1575397826594574336

And remember folks. Having been nicely warmed up on radio, she now does 16 TV interviews. Where the hacks won't just be wanting a piece of clippable audio. They will want to see her gob flapping silently. Imagine how bad they will be when she gets past 10 of these...

Oh god, it’s worse than I even imagined. I couldn’t listen to more than 2 of those. Cringeworthy in the extreme.

Reminds me of Palin/Couric.

KENT: Opens with quotes from astonished listeners and opens up with "are you ashamed of what you've done". Truss tries to claim she inherited the mess. "But you've made it worse".
https://twitter.com/TobyonTV/status/1575386522597163009

A five minute local radio interview - when they are stacked one after the other - is like speed dating only its punching not dating. What prannock in Downing Street decided this was a good idea? Who is Director of Communications now?

A little while ago, Guido posted a photo of some of the special advisers that Truss had just appointed. It struck me at the time that they looked less like wise and experienced counsellors and very much more like members of a harem.

Perhaps personal appearance was not the best criterion for appointing them?

Wasn't the Finland rumour that Mistress Truss whips "adult babies"? Perhaps that was the selection criteria.

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'

In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake

Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.

That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.

"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"

Exhibit 1: Brexit

You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.

And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.

Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.

Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged

Brexit was epochal

You're back.
The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.

https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485
For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.

And a short clip of her playing another rare flute in the collection.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575136007854460931

I really didn’t rant. PB-ers with an interest can go back and read at their leisure

I said Lizzo’s half naked twerking as she played Madison’s crystal flute (and that’s possibly the best sentence I’ve ever written on PB) can be read two ways

As an articulate piece of performance art by a smart black woman deliberately and understandably subverting a Founding Father who owned black people

Or

As another step in the American procession from culture war to civil war as Republicans and patriots
simply perceive a gratuitous insult aimed squarely at them and their history

Or, indeed, and more likely: it is both

Here’s the vid. Decide for yourselves


https://twitter.com/lizzo/status/1574992141054464000?s=46&t=3Hzg_ZkN6hX0NwuQPf_rgg

squareroot2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

Tory MPs are notoriously reluctant to act as we saw with BJ.....it will take an `unknown unknown' event to dislodge her - my feeling is KK may go (or BoE Governor) in the short term and she may survive.

LizT to sacrifice Kwasi in order to save herself seems plausible, and not unlike Theresa May being forced to ditch Nick and Fiona after the 2017 general election debacle. The government will no doubt be hoping it can at least get through the Conservative Party conference (starts Sunday; ends Wednesday).

ETA yes, they are friends and political allies but even so...

I think most Tory MPs know Truss is a terrible mistake but she'll stay because (a) it's too soon (b) another contest would be too disruptive and take too long and (c) they wouldn't know who they'd get.

I suspect they'd like to coronate Rishi or Wallace (which won't happen) but say they did you'd then have 50-60 kamikaze ex-Truss supporters on the backbenches sabotaging and scuppering anything the new new administration tried to do. And the majority in the House couldn't be guaranteed.

The Conservative Party really are in terrible trouble and the best thing for them now would be a GE and to go into opposition. Even better, for the kamikazes to be deselected or lose their seats as I don't think there's any other way to be rid of them.

Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas

Agree. I also strongly agree with @Casino_Royale post which makes the next two years worrying. Although I think I prefer Truss there than Boris. At least she hasn't shown herself to be dishonest or attempted to break the constitution.

The only bit I question about Casino's post is an election is not necessarily the way to get rid of what he refers as the 'kamikazes' (although I note that is a wish rather than a prediction by him). Our electoral system only gets rid of those in marginal seats who often are better MPs as they have to work harder. Many useless MPs will survive (regardless of party). And will they be deselected or might more be selected?

UK bonds extend losses after Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos https://trib.al/Q2Ug2z1

Betting Post

Football: latest wibble on some forthcoming matches in Serie A and Ligue 1 (Bundesliga, La Liga, and EPL covered recently too).

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/09/serie-and-ligue-1-thoughts.html

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.

That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).

It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...

It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...

In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.

How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?

That is the wrong question. MPs will not be asking how many seats can be saved, but how can their own seat be saved.

eek said:

Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....

Charlie Stross
@cstross
I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.

The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.

The only argument for staying was economic and now well......

To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.

I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....

RochdalePioneers said:

Meanwhile on Teesside:

Tories inherit steelworks
Tories refuse to save steelworks
Steelworks closes.
Tories hand over steelworks to their mates
Steelworks is demolished
Steel is *imported* to start the redevelopment of the former steelworks
https://twitter.com/TeesValleyCA/status/1575093656058728449

Vote Conservative for jobs.

Technically any steel made in that Steelworks would probably cost 3 times the imported price (given current energy prices) but I agree it ain't a good look...

Bit surprised by this tbh. Certainly room for growth and a rise in productivity in this area at least, if only we hadn’t fcuked up trade arrangements with a whack of our neighbours.

Scott_xP said:

A Tory MP who backed Truss texts: "It's an utter shitshow."
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1575414118588219395

This one is way more significant...

Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth
·
28m
RIP the narrative that Starmer shouldn’t underestimate Truss (I previously thought it was a risk for Labour). I simply cannot think of a more disastrous broadcast round.

Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.

That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).

It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...

It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...

In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.

They have the same problem though, the maddest 1/3 of the parliamentary party get to put their candidate in front of the members and the members are likely to pick that person, and they might also pick Boris regardless of his Privileges Committee difficulties.

I suppose they could keep repeating the operation until the members come up with a sensible result but they're looking ridiculous enough already...

I doubt the question will be put to the members.

numbertwelve said:

eek said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.

That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).

It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...

It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...

In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.

How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?

An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.

And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.

The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..

Agree. The May option might be worth a long shot punt actually: what odds Theresa May next PM?

Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…

Theresa May is 100/1 at Betfair Sportsbook.

FT: “This is what happens if you keep telling yourself that everyone else is wrong.”

Truss’s unofficial economic advisor, Patrick Minford: “EVERYONE EXCEPT ME IS AN IDIOT.”

You cannot run a G7 economy from a throne of arrogance and denial. ~AA

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1575418466932236288/photo/1

ping said:

Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.

One thing that get my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.

FTSE 250 is down 2%

eristdoof said:

TinkyWinky said:

It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.

1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules.
2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk.
3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda.
4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.

Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?

It's not a loop hole it's a feature.

What do you mean by that sorry?

TinkyWinky said:

It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.

1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules.
2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk.
3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda.
4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.

Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?

Indeed, it just wasn't as obvious with May or Brown because they provided more continuity, and somewhat more obvious with Johnson. If Truss indeed either crashes the economy, the state, or most likely both, there will gradually be heavy pressure for some form of constitutional change on this.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Northern_Al said:

Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.

For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.

Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?

Yes. The construction of that sentence.

Mind, Merton mathematicians' reputation used to be pretty good. Heytesbury, Bradwardine, Wiles ... and Reggie Maudling also went there.

Exclusive from @MattChorley & Times team

Cabinet ministers privately raising concerns about Kwasi Kwarteng's £45billion package of cuts

They believe she got the timing wrong by announcing such an enormous package of tax cuts at a time of soaring inflation
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575420212240850945

Nigelb said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus poll for C4 News:

45% Lab
28% Con

and also:
14% Budget good idea

Just announced by Gary Gibbon live on TV.

Tory increased their share of vote in that one by 1%. Should steady the ship. Not a bad poll for them to be going up despite the media narrative as backdrop when is was taken.

Are you being a Tory again? Your posts today have been bizarre

I take polling posts seriously, I wouldn’t say anything deliberately untrue, though I could make a mistake.
double check my checking if you like.

Maybe a touch tongue in cheek, as that last poll I think was January. Though, on the other hand, it shows the firm does double digit leads and sub 30 Tories so are not a Kantor or Techne.

My other posts today are not bizarre, they are actually true, cutting through the hyperbole on here today if you listen to what I am saying.

What I am saying is really straightforward. The growth budget, with a couple of little ideological flourishes which have back fired, and the quarter of a trillion borrowing for Bill Freezing are actually two very different fiscal events, the chancellor has unwisely blurred together. The markets are not, IMF mostly not, attacking the growth budget - the growth budget isn’t a huge financial risk problem on its own. It is actually UK putting it out there we intend to borrow nearly a quarter of a trillion to freeze our consumers energy bills for a few years the markets are saying no to - the markets are saying no, we assess you are not in a great position to manage that size of largesse right now.

So the answer is really straightforward as well, and it doesn’t need cuts or tax rises (though interest rates are touch low maybe, and a tax contribution such as a windfall element would sweeten the markets) we just don’t borrow £200B and give half of it to people who don’t even need a hand out. We adjust the Bill Freezing plan.

Simples.

Any questions?

That's completely arse about face. The Chancellor promised growth with a range of measures that won't deliver growth. The energy stuff has been known about for weeks.

To answer your question, because I know you will see the logic of my argument about what triggered the market so what needed to calm it - There’s an element I think where international economists like the IMF and the markets have not been doing their jobs properly by not reacting sooner to UKs unnecessary quarter trillion loan for hand outs madness. Was it the mourning period? The markets waiting on last Friday before acting, in hope of more detail and more reassurance, announce different things last Friday about size of borrowing and how it’s to be financed.

The chancellor actually surprised them with more tax cuts, not the tax take they preferred; never a clever thing to surprise markets already volatile with unexpected bad news. That finally triggered it. But I am right, the elephant in the room is the quarter trillion loan for handouts markets acting on, the growth budget bits on their own the markets and IMF would not act like this.

Time to acknowledge that elephant in the room.

repeating the same point again and again and again doesn't make it any more correct

What do you think triggered the markets then, if not how I just explained 🙂

The Chancellor presented a set of figures that made no sense and sidelined the OBR. Then doubled down on the inanity of it over the weekend.

I agree all those wrong vibes didn’t help him achieve the task in hand of not spooking the markets, yes you are correct listing those I agree are mistakes he made.

But you appreciate those mistakes alone don’t trigger the market, for they are not the cause of the market concern? Is UK in position to borrow a quarter of a trillion for a regressive hand outs programme is the fundamental issue or question the markets have been wrestling with.

Can you see that difference, between communication errors, and a fundamental issue the markets need us to address?

We did this before, though.
The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now). Coupling it with a program of tax cuts - promising growth but providing no justification for that other than the bare assertion - is what made it fiscally incredible. Tacking a tax cut only for the wealthiest on top of that made it political suicide.

“Regressive” is a red herring; you could address that through the tax system.
The basic problem is that any energy price cap that’s effective would be very expensive.
Now you could argue we shouldn’t have capped energy prices, but the economic fallout from that might well be equally severe.

What no politician has really been honest about is how much the spike in energy prices has cost us. As I’ve said before, it’s made the country significantly poorer, and the argument is really about how that pain is shared out. That we don’t know how long it might last makes it harder still. A new government isn’t going to change that.

If successive governments hadn’t put off decisions about nuclear and renewables for a decade or more while we relied on cheap imported gas, we’d be in a considerably better position.
And if course those needed investment are going to cost a great deal more to finance, now.

It’s not often I post to you I think you’ve got this very wrong Nigel, have another think. But, here goes.
2 bits to your current thinking for you to think again on (this same challenge for vast majority of posters on here too in the same thinking as you)

Firstly, do you think Kwarzi scrapping Gordon Brown’s top rate of tax was not just very wrong moment politically, but a regressive tax measure in taxation terms? At the heart of my argument, regressive tax changes can lead to increased income inequality placing a greater financial burden on low-income households compared to everyone else, even outside times of crisis like this it creates two nations, apartheid of the pocket.

But you also understand what Kwarteng done with that, everyone is howling about, is STILL ONLY about 0.02% as “regressive” as Kwartengs looming £100B giveaway to people who don’t need it, including the top 1% again, and you still currently support him doing that? And you claim this two nations and apartheid of the pocket £100B giveaway will be easily addressed by the tax system, if someone is minded to do that?

Secondly you claim “The ‘handout program’ is an emergency measure; if you’re going to cap energy prices, it’s the only way to do it within a reasonable timeframe (ie right now)” to which I reply BOLLOCKS. It doesn’t have to be a freeze, it doesn’t have to be set at the high amount, it doesn’t have to be locked in as that long from the start (furlough wasn’t) it doesn’t have to be so set in stone now instead of evolving, made cheaper, blended into a hybrid with other options that target help, It’s such UTTERLY LAZY politics to draw a line with - there was no other option, can’t do anything about that now - and UTTERLY WRONG for us to allow Truss to get away with “there was no other option, it was right for us to provide that help on bills, can’t do anything about that now” Whilst The pound, Homes, Pensions, Incomes all sheltering in bunkers at the moment to protect a policy that is fundamentally regressive, and government should still be working hard to
bring down that quarter of a trillion of borrowing by three fifths, with a more out the box, blended style of household bill support - not just to stop it being so regressive, but It’s also the only way out this confidence crisis with the markets.

Unpopular said:

eek said:

eek said:

Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....

Charlie Stross
@cstross
I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.

The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.

The only argument for staying was economic and now well......

To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.

I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....

I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.

Understandable. Existing Tory voters do have the SLDs or Slab to vote for rather than the SNP, but it's all very complex. On the othjer hand, the leading Unionists have trashed their key promises - EU membership, defence capability, federalism, and now currency.

Unpopular said:

eek said:

eek said:

Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....

Charlie Stross
@cstross
I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.

The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.

The only argument for staying was economic and now well......

To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.

I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....

I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.

If anything, doesn’t this sort of indicate any potential consequence of attempting to either 1) create a new currency or 2) base plans on using sterling still, run by a dysfunctional English govt

I dunno. Seems to me most of us are waiting for the inevitable Labour government now

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

@dwnews
JUST IN: Economists expect Germany to enter recession in 2023, economy could shrink by up to 8.8%.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1575399955262578689

Ouch.

"Correction: economists expect -0.4% growth in 2023"

AlistairM said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

In fairness to the MPs I don't think it was *that* obvious at the time that Sunak couldn't win with the members. Didn't the markets have him odds-on at one point during the MP rounds? That might be my memory playing tricks on me but he definitely wasn't trading an "obviously doomed" kind of price.

The final round of MP voting when Penny dropped out was 20th July. Opinion polling on final 2 taken before this shown here:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)

Sunak was always going to lose to Truss.

Indeed. That Conservative MPs were blind to this is the mystery of the ages.

Along with how they could allow the bat-shit crazy Truss be the candidate against him.

One Tory MP put the Conservative Party's chances of winning the next election at 3%

Another said they were genuinely depressed

There is *a lot* of unhappiness out there
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575421151467257857

Why this all matters - here's a key slide from @resfoundation on mortgage costs.

The average mortgage is £4,800 a year more expensive than they were in December.

That's up £1,000 since... last Thursday. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575421124887957507/photo/1

eristdoof said:

TinkyWinky said:

It's genuinely frightening how the Conservative Party has managed to subvert our democracy.

1) Get elected on a levelling up ticket, sensible budgeting, sticking to fiscal rules.
2) Prime Minister gets turfed out because of acting like a berk.
3) Small membership of around 80,000 then select a politician with a radically different agenda.
4) Said politician then enacts agenda which piles misery on the country.

Is this not just a basic loop hole in our democratic system?

It's not a loop hole it's a feature.

1 and 2 are features, 4 is the loop hole. The current Government was elected on the 2019 manifesto. While they are not, nor should they be, legally bound to carry it out, the manifesto is a kind of promise that 'if you elect us, we'll try and do this kind of stuff'. The winning party forms a Government that has a mandate from the people to do that kind of stuff. If a new Government comes in, without an election, their mandate has not changed and they are still bound to their promise. So while a new Government is not obligated to stick to a manifesto, there is a lighter principal at work that, if a new Government seeks to radically divert from their manifesto, indeed act contrary to it, they have a moral duty to seek a fresh mandate. That, I believe, is where the loophole lies. Not sure how you close it without sacrificing other bits of the system but certainly feels a bit like a loop hole.

eek said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.

Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.

AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:

"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner

If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."

There can't be a VONC within 12 months of a leader winning the previous VONC. I've never heard that a new leader gets a 12 month grace period...

Can someone clarify but I think I'm right on this. @HYUFD

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'

In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake

Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.

That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.

"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"

Exhibit 1: Brexit

You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.

And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.

Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.

Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged

Brexit was epochal

You're back.
The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.

https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485
For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.

And a short clip of her playing another rare flute in the collection.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575136007854460931

My wife has an ancient Rudall & Rose flute from the mid-19th century. These are made of wood, unlike the later metal Boehm flutes that are the pattern for modern orchestra flutes.

If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.

Hold on are you sure you're not getting Leon mixed up with Paul Watson ?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

numbertwelve said:

eek said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

numbertwelve said:

AlistairM said:

Attention Anti-Truss Tory MPs reading this. I know there will be some!

Why the f*** did you back Rishi when all the polling said he would lose with members? Either Kemi or Penny would have beaten Rishi and not done this. This is on you! You are going to lose in 2024. There is no avoiding it. Your job now is to bring back some sanity. You can act. You must act.

True, but we can’t have Kemi or Penny replacing Liz now. If the Tories do remove Truss before the GE (despite everything, I still have severe doubts that they can) it can’t be a roll of the dice, potentially not-ready-for-prime-time option. They will need to have someone who can step in, take the reigns and reassure everyone from day one.

That is a very limited set of candidates I think. Hunt, Wallace, Gove. At a pinch, Javid, Rishi and even TMay (no laughing at the back).

It would have to be Gove or May. Wallace clearly doesn't want it (I think his wife has said NO) and Hunt got zero support in July so isn't an option...

It's rather scary when you look at the available options and go well May's probably your best option there...

In replacing Liz Truss, MPs will be looking to save their own seats. They will remember how badly Theresa May did in the 2017 election, and how badly Michael Gove polls with the public. They might take a chance that Boris can regain his mojo but the Privileges Committee might end his career in December. The best replacement for Conservative MPs is probably Rishi Sunak, who warned against Trussonomics, or risk a relatively clean skin.

How many seats you think can be saved? Can't be more than about 150, can it?

An election in 2024/5 is a very different question to who can calm the markets now.

And that list is a whole lot shorter (and probably different to) who will do best at the next election.

The reality is that if you look at both questions Rishi is the only option but a lot of people won't like the idea which is why you end up saying May / Gove rather than the practical choice..

Agree. The May option might be worth a long shot punt actually: what odds Theresa May next PM?

Appreciate that we are in dire straits when we are thinking of the ‘stability’ and ‘competency’ of Theresa May, but let’s look at the case: she can step into the job on day one without issues (she’s done the job before), she’s growing into an elder stateswoman role, she’s about the least likely person on the Tory benches to terrify the markets, she has had a coronation before…

Theresa May is 100/1 at Betfair Sportsbook.

I think I’ll take a small flutter on that.

A reminder.
Liz Truss votes for PM: 81,316
Count Binface votes for mayor: 92,896
I have a bigger political mandate than her.
And I’m not hiding.
#BinTruss #BringInBinface

https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1575128060143321088

Beibheirli_C said:

Personally, I am looking forward to the result of the 8am radio round with PM. I wonder if any journos will have the nerve to put her on the spot and ask why rewarding the rich whilst penalising the poor is a good idea? Or wiping out the country's reputation?

Asking her why she thought it a good idea to do something which has destroyed so much value in companies and peoples' savings might be a better question.

darkage said:

edmundintokyo said:

darkage said:

edmundintokyo said:

Just to say I was totally and utterly wrong about Truss, I assumed she was just telling the members what they wanted to hear and she'd pivot when she got the job.

My general mental model of British politicians is that they're smart people with good advice while the voters are less well informed and the media tries hard to make them dumber, and I *think* that's still mostly the right model, but whoa, it didn't work this time.

There is a maxim that smart people can be made dumb and dangerous by ideology, and this potentially applies here.

Truss always came across as a cartoon neoliberal airhead in the Cameron years. I thought that this type of politician had been consigned to history after Brexit. But I was wrong about that. They are back, in power but based on no mandate and very little support for their policies, and too afraid (or arrogant) to call an election, and determined to cause chaos and misery through 'shock therapy' designed to address the irresponsibility of err.. their own, previous policies.

If they don't get rid of her, and they probably won't, this is potentially an extinction level event for the tories.

The thing is this isn't even neoliberal ideology. It's not any ideology. Huge tax cut when you have inflation running away and interest rates are going to have to go up? What, no. If neoliberal ideology says anything about this situation, it would be to raise taxes a bit and cut spending a lot.

There's no coherent *system* of thought that says you should do this. There's only a *habit* of thought, which is kind of, believe things that you want to be true, and ignore or fire any annoying expert who says it won't work.

Yes but a lot of politics is pseudo religious like this. Maybe they thought they would cause chaos with the announcement and then 'slash the state' to get things in order?

The problem though is that they have no democratic mandate, and any 'emergency' is one that it is absolutely clear to everyone that they have created themselves.

My guess is that a large part of the electorate won't buy it, and won't vote Conservative ever again. The tories can just become a pensioners/nimby lobbying group.

The government has done a huge amount of damage to the value of peoples pensions and companies. When that penny drops with pensioners, they won't get even their votes.

TinkyWinky said:

Leon said:

ping said:

Fairly calm on the stock markets / bond markets / currency this morning.

One thing that gets my back up is journos without much understanding of the markets, suddenly pay attention after big market moves and then write grand narratives about small, unimportant market moves in the hours and days afterwards.

Indeed

Over the past year the £ is down 19.8% against the $. That’s a sharp fall and it’s accelerated in recent weeks. OMFG etc

Yet in the past year the € is down 17.1% against the $. A sharp fall that has accelerated in recent weeks. Almost identical

The government is having a nightmare week and the mini budget was calamitous in multiple ways, but the UK is a weirdly excitable place with a hysterical media (amplified now by social media) and that is also an issue, here

Weirdly excitable? Aren't you the chap who thinks UFOs are promoting a Woke War, and some nutty Professors from Ukraine are having extra-marital sexual relations with an inter-gender extraterrestrial?

Yes, that’s me. Yet I am oddly calm this morning. Perhaps I am just @contrarian

🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-crisis-a-tough-week-for-trussonomics

Razedabode said:

Unpopular said:

eek said:

eek said:

Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....

Charlie Stross
@cstross
I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.

The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.

The only argument for staying was economic and now well......

To add - if any Paper wishes to ensure Truss is removed within a week sort out a Scottish Independence Poll this weekend.

I would bet decent money that Independence will have close to 60% of the vote....

I keep thinking about what it would take to move the needle to get me to vote independence. More weeks like this would certainly move me more into the independence camp, but I would want more evidence that the UK, rather than the Conservative Party, is fundamentally broken.

If anything, doesn’t this sort of indicate any potential consequence of attempting to either 1) create a new currency or 2) base plans on using sterling still, run by a dysfunctional English govt

I dunno. Seems to me most of us are waiting for the inevitable Labour government now

For sure, but I was thinking more as in when the balance of risk moves from stay to go. For me, personally, a lot would have to happen for the risk of independence to outweigh the risk of staying.

I'm also awaiting the inevitable Labour Government.

"If the markets’ gamble is to explore whether they or Tory MPs blink first, I promise you that the former will make a killing" - essential @PaulGoodmanCH on Truss, for whom "there are now no good options"

https://conservativehome.com/2022/09/29/sacking-kwarteng-wouldnt-solve-trusss-problems/

‘Kwarteng must restore credibility or crisis could turn into a disaster’. He can’t, of course. But a brilliant piece. As so often.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/574b950c-3f6a-11ed-b24d-96120f17513d?shareToken=4c57214cad93b2c9d2bb0338da72e0d0

Theuniondivvie said:

Bit surprised by this tbh. Certainly room for growth and a rise in productivity in this area at least, if only we hadn’t fcuked up trade arrangements with a whack of our neighbours.

I believe that U.K. cheese production is either mega produced (Cheddars etc) or artisan specialist stuff. Not much mid-range,

You need to be careful with some industries about productivity - in “luxury” brands the high price from lots of skilled labour is a feature, not a bug.

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

HYUFD said:

boulay said:

Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.

Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.

If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK

You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).

If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.

Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.

No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of
the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats

I know this is completely academic as the Tories won't go down to 10% (I know European elections, but people protest there, not so a GE), but if the Tories did go to 10% I disagree with your prediction (although my views are entirely a gut reaction so I accept I might be entirely wrong). I would predict that if the Tories were on 10% (and the LDs on a decent percentage) the LDs would sweep much of the South and South West and take a significant number of affluent or rural seats elsewhere (Harrogate, Hereford, etc). I agree there would be a Farage boom turning the remaining previously safe Tory seats which didn't go LD in Kent and Essex and such like into Labour/Farage marginals (Clacton and such like). I also think there would be a lot of Labour/Farage marginals in the Redwall.

So I could see a Labour landslide with a LD opposition and a handful of Farage if the Tories went to 10%. Of course we will never know as I think the Tories have the most stable highest core of all the main parties.

PS actually on re-reading your post I realise I only partly disagree and agree with some of it.

I think the Tories had the most highest stable core vote.

But you only have to look at the Tory voters on here to see that their votes have gone in the next election and if their votes have gone how many other core voters are willing to vote Labour once to ensure Labour has the majority needed to fix the forthcoming mess..

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Considering well over half of Tory MPs didn't want Truss isn't there at least a reasonable chance that a move to instate Rishi might be underway? Like him or not he's a very slick operator. What's more everything he predicted and LOUDLY has happened. He said her plans were 'cloud cuckoo land' and would be a disaster and so it's proved. Cummings who is nobody's fool also knew it 'She's as close to probper crackers as anyone I've met in Parliament'

In my opinion ruling out a Tory putsch is a mistake

Cummings most definitely is a fool. He's a liar, a forger, a failure, a fantasist and a bully who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done because he has shocking judgment and a lazy intellect coupled, rather unfortunately, to a highly over-active imagination and a raging egomania.

That doesn't mean he's wrong about Truss, of course. In fact, if even somebody as bonkers as him thought she was a bit weird, that was probably a warning sign.

"who has failed spectacularly at everything he's ever done"

Exhibit 1: Brexit

You may hate Brexit, but delivering it was an historically spectacular achievement - the like of which few ever get to achieve.

And he (a) was far less important in it than he likes to pretend and (b) it hasn't delivered what he said it would. Which makes it a failure.

Even if I concede your point - which as you can see, I don't - name me one other achievement. Any other. In his whole life.

Cummings succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of most spin doctors. And that is how he must be judged

Brexit was epochal

You're back.
The Library of Congress saw your rant last night, and posted an explanation.

https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575148293767700485
For those concerned about the flute: Music Division curators made sure it could be played without damage. This sort of thing is not all that unusual, in fact. Some of the Library's priceless instruments were donated with the stipulation that they remain functional & be played.

And a short clip of her playing another rare flute in the collection.
https://twitter.com/librarycongress/status/1575136007854460931

My wife has an ancient Rudall & Rose flute from the mid-19th century. These are made of wood, unlike the later metal Boehm flutes that are the pattern for modern orchestra flutes.

If her flute isn't played regularly the wood will dry out and crack. The musical instrument museum at Edinburgh University has a Rudall & Rose flute in its collection, but it's not been played and is now badly cracked. Made her really quite upset when we visited the museum and saw it. They're wonderful instruments, and the simplistic idea of museum exhibits being for viewing only is incredibly destructive in this case.

I damn near cried at the state of a Stradivarius in the Ashmollean, years ago.

I was doing some part time stuff there as a student. The restoration people told me that they had argued for it to be played, but management wouldn’t listen.

eek said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.

Yes - plus BF 2.42 @ Truss Vote of no confidence before next GE is worth taking IMO. I'm on already.

AIUI CP can't have VONC for 12 months from when she took over and the BF rules say:

"If Liz Truss stands down/is removed as leader without the need of a confidence vote then No will be settled as a winner

If Liz Truss stands down as leader after the No Confidence vote is triggered but before the actual vote takes place then No will be settled as the winner."

There can't be a VONC within 12 months of a leader winning the previous VONC. I've never heard that a new leader gets a 12 month grace period...

Surely, that VONC only applies to that leader who has been VONCed? No reason why the MPs should have to wait 12 months before they can undo a completely bat-shit crazy PM imposed on them by the members?

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 REVEALED: Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t hang around to understand why the pound plummeted after his ‘fiscal event’ on Friday – instead he celebrated his mini-Budget with Treasury staffers in the local pub… 👇

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-crisis-a-tough-week-for-trussonomics

Terrible man. Imagine that, you get something out and then you want to have a pint after with the people who helped on it.

More like running somebody down in your new car and then going off to the pub to celebrate the purchase anyway.

Kwarteng and Truss aren't idiots so they'll need to find some way to square the circle come November. Further cuts to local Gov't looks one on the books to me, so everyone will get a huge council tax rise to go along with the big mortgage increase particularly in red wall areas.
I thought my seat Bassetlaw would be Tory for a long long time but I'm not sure about that any more. I'll be voting Starmer anyway - could be a tight marginal.

Peter_the_Punter said:

OccasionalOptimist said:

jamesdoyle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Northern_Al said:

Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.

For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.

Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?

Yes. The construction of that sentence.

I'm blaming auto-correct.

Surely it's Putin's fault. Or Remainers.

Putin added the "a" but I think it was because Starmer spooked the market that the jarring comma appeared.

She is actually more of an existential threat to this Country now than Putin is, no?

Politically (if you mean the UK), but possibly not geographically (if you mean the island we live on).

Scott_xP said:

Why this all matters - here's a key slide from @resfoundation on mortgage costs.

The average mortgage is £4,800 a year more expensive than they were in December.

That's up £1,000 since... last Thursday. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575421124887957507/photo/1

MIRAS is almost certainly going to be back on the cards. As with energy bills, there is no way the Government is going to let households - particularly such a key demographic - take such a hit.

Also expect a reverse ferret of the Bank of England unwinding its QE programme. To some degree, it has already happened.

IshmaelZ said:

kinabalu said:

Re Header, I have laid a 23 exit for Truss @ 2.5 for quite a chunk. I think punters are getting carried away. The Cons will look utter plonkers if they change leaders again before the election. Of course they might if things get crazy enough but the price should be more like 5 or 6 imo.

Did you listen to this morning's interviews?

Can you imagine next PMQs?

The unstoppable force of Truss's uselessness is about to hit the immovable object of the Tory party's leadership rules. I wouldn't wanna bet either way on the outcome.

Caught some of it. She's bad. Very bad. She's got a rough old time coming, at PMQs and elsewhere. But I think they'll probably stick with her and that price was just too tempting.

Many Tory voters would have mortgages and private pensions .

Amongst their OAP core vote the pension aspect will be most damaging . The Tories were willing to recklessly gamble your retirement plans away . That should be the opposition message to that group.

nico679 said:

Many Tory voters would have mortgages and private pensions .

Amongst their OAP core vote the pension aspect will be most damaging . The Tories were willing to recklessly gamble your retirement plans away . That should be the opposition message to that group.

Not really. OAPs are already drawing on their pensions, or have annuities.

It's those in their 40/50/60 which will be worried about their pension come their retirement which will really be sweating.