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LAB is grossly over-priced in the GE majority betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    HYUFD said:

    Doctors do not have to not work and the funeral is only 2 hours
    Nurses, porters, secretaries, support staff ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    148grss said:

    So what is the point of them? If they only do what they're told anyway, why do we need them? Why not just get rid of them, and avoid the possibility that a random assertive monarch will turn up?

    And republics don't work in practice? That's a silly thing to say - we have two as neighbours, and the current global hegemon is one.
    As a ceremonial President would also have no power and have to do what a PM and Parliament told them without having anywhere near the global name recognition of our royal family.

    While a powerful elected President Johnson or Cameron or Blair or Starmer would be hated by half the country and deeply divisive
  • HYUFD said:

    Indeed, I am a diehard monarchist but did not cry over it
    I do think it has cast a bit of a pall. I think even now, a few things have cropped up where you think 'the Queen would have dealt with this really well'. And that's fine - someone special and good at being Head of State has died. It's regrettable. But let's give Charles time and see how he works out. It might be a more emotive, empathetic, sentimental Monarchy, if him letting that woman embrace him is anything to go by. For all the Queen's private kindnesses, she wasn't a 'shareth in our sadness' sort of gal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    The USA is convulsed by political problems, and Ireland is a total irrelevance with a President no-one knows the name of or cares about.

    The British monarchy has been a hugely stabilising and unifying force in our national life, has created a global organisation for individual freedom and human rights, and is a huge projector of British soft power.

    If you need reminding of this then you're really not thinking very hard.
    Bit unkind - unlike certain people on twitter (probably from the US), political Irish responses to death of the Queen have been well done.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    DavidL said:

    He was walking up the middle of the street today blocking all the traffic. Seems a much better basis for a prosecution.
    I think the road was closed by prior arrangement, much like the street parties we have round my neck of the woods.

    Word of advice - having a reputation in the local police force for being a source of free hand made sausage rolls and infinite free cake a couple times a year, improves response times.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Sean_F said:

    Close to half wanted a military government. Would you say that in general, military governments are better or worse than constitutional monarchies?
    Worse, certainly. But I don't understand the point - do you think the solutions proposed by the paper (essentially a a national service that doesn't have to be military, more opportunity for clubs, and increased restriction on social media use) would be better than material solutions to the problems my generation face (declining real term income, less secure work, less likely to own our own homes, pessimism about the future, concerns about the environment)?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Got a county meeting now about the latest ECB power grab epic cock up high performance review.

    I think it might be quite entertaining...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281

    Everyone always asks why horse

    Nobody ever asks how horse :(

    Look after yourself, my friend.

    Get to your happy place - May 2nd 2024, 10pm, as the chimes of Big Ben fade and BBC, ITV and Sky all announce their exit poll showing a Labour landslide.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    DavidL said:

    He was walking up the middle of the street today blocking all the traffic. Seems a much better basis for a prosecution.
    You'll take the case I assume? :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    Nigelb said:

    Is merde a single syllable ?
    Con, trou noir ...
  • Can you imagine, King Chuckles teamed up with Prime Minister BoJo?

    Sounds like an episode - set in Jolly Olde England - of the "Crusty the Clown Show"!
  • Everyone always asks why horse

    Nobody ever asks how horse :(

    Why? I assumed your name was from a password generator and you just picked it at random.

    I am not sure were "how" comes into that.
  • ydoethur said:

    Got a county meeting now about the latest ECB power grab epic cock up high performance review.

    I think it might be quite entertaining...

    Are they going to set different interest rates by county? Maybe Kwarteng was right to keep a closer eye on them after all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    That’s quite a lot of expensive and hard to replace kit.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1569369292147408896
    #Russia is now confirmed to have lost 53 combat aircraft since February 24.

    This includes:

    - 1 Su-35
    - 13 Su-34s
    - 11 Su-30s
    - 21 Su-25s
    - 6 Su-24s
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    The USA is convulsed by political problems, and Ireland is a total irrelevance with a President no-one knows the name of or cares about.

    The British monarchy has been a hugely stabilising and unifying force in our national life, has created a global organisation for individual freedom and human rights, and is a huge projector of British soft power.

    If you need reminding of this then you're really not thinking very hard.
    That commitment to freedom and human rights in full: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/02/15/queen-help-pay-12m-prince-andrew-settlement/
  • If you want to put it like that, everything is political.

    But it is clear that the monarchy stands aside from daily shenanigans at Westminster, on the Today show, and Twitter.

    Or should do.

    They also provide continuity both in the sense that they exist beyond the lifetime of governments, but also in the sense that the family stretches back in history to the earliest foundations of the British (or English) state.

    I don’t think anything makes them special, except for their ability to fulfil those roles above, and again, according to rules that stand outside democratic process.

    I don’t feel deference, especially not to the broader family. The Queen did tremendously well and I “defer” to that. You are right that there are probably things that could be done away with in a more democratic age, but I think you are not recognising the symbolic power of the monarchy.
    But, I would defer to that symbolism and happily bow to a monarch accordingly.

    I don't think I'm diminishing myself or losing anything by doing it - I'm simply playing my own part in validating the constitution and history of which I am proud.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    IshmaelZ said:

    Certainly they are outrageous cakeists. Contrast the Church of England where the archb of C is on £85,070 and, I understand, no expenses, entertainment allowance etc, when I am sure prewar Cantuars lived like princes. It's either jets every day or environmentalism, either the WWF or heavy duty game shooting, and either a claim of living a life of "service" or living up to the greatest inheritance the world has known, which largely belongs to us. Slimming down doesn't just mean sacking pedo boy, it has to involve returning half the palacs to the nation and living less like a rap artist.
    Charles to be fair has said he will live in Clarence House and open Buckingham Palace all year round to tourists and just have an office there.

    He will also make Balmoral a memorial to his mother
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    148grss said:

    So accidents of birth are better than elections? Should Charles have had no issue, or died as a young man, having Andrew is just the luck of the draw?

    If they have no power, why do they need to exist at all, and if the question is "who do we replace them with" why is "nobody" not an acceptable answer?
    If it sounds like I'm arguing from both sides of this, it's because I am: I can see arguments on either side, as, I think, can you.

    1) In general, yes, I'd say that for a ceremonial head of state, yes, accidents of birth are better at elections. The job of a head of state is not to make political decisions, it is to embody the nation, to represent everyone. Election winners do this only marginally better than election losers. There is a ready-made body of opinion who has already taken against them.

    2) However, yes, occasionally they will throw up a really bad candidate who will alienate everyone - and Andrew or a Harry. This is probably (though not definitely) worse than a Trump, who just alienates 50% of everybody. Actually, my view is that either Andrew or Harry, were they born to the role, would become rather better candidates for it. Perhaps the purposelessness and lack of responsibility of being the spare royal engenders the uselessness; or conversely the lifetime's preparation engenders the responsibility.
    But yes, that is the risk, and to me that is the only compelling argument against monarchy as a system.

    3) Why is nobody not an acceptable answer? I used to think this. I've changed my mind; without 'somebody' or 'something' - an element of symbology - we are no longer a nation; we are just a bunch of people on a big island. Why do we go to war? Obviously it's strange to swear allegiance to the queen and her descendants, but it's equally strange to swear allegiance to the flag, or an elected leader, or each other, or the land. Who articulates who we are as a nation? This is a difficult one to articulate, and requires a bit of abstract thought, and also for you to believe that we are a nation - not just a bunch of people - and that it is desirable that this is the case. It comes down to the human need for narrative, for stories, for shared ideas, for the idea of progress towards a goal rather than just a lot of stuff happening. This book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Watling-Street-Travels-Through-Ever-Present/dp/1474603475 - while ostensibly just a travel book - changed my mind about this and made me think we are - or should be - more than a collection of individuals and why, and how this is brought about.

    It's not necessarily the case that we need a monarch, or a ceremonial head of state, or a flag, or a religion. But we do need something to believe in and unify us. Humans are not individual robots and attempts to treat them as such rarely goes well.

    I should emphasise that I have consistently said I'm a republican: if I were starting a country from scratch, a monarchy definitely wouldn't be my model. But I'm also wary about chucking all the seemingly superficial and unnecessary stuff out just because it's not modern. If we were to remove the monarchy, we would need a very clearly articulated and well supported idea of what happens next. I don't think we've yet got it.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Will @rcs1000 celebrate, or recoil in horror ?

    https://twitter.com/sergeykarayev/status/1569377881440276481
    Here's a brief glimpse of our INCREDIBLE near future.

    GPT-3 armed with a Python interpreter can…
  • kle4 said:

    Bit unkind - unlike certain people on twitter (probably from the US), political Irish responses to death of the Queen have been well done.
    I'm not looking to be unkind to the Irish.

    I am just pointing out the Irish president is an irrelevance.

    I'd have to Google to find the name, yet alone what they'd done or on what basis they'd been elected.
  • On the topic of how secure the monarchy is... as long as republicans are willing to vote for monarchist parties, but monarchists are unwilling to vote for explicitly republican parties it is safe. The only way I can see that changing is if Charles really does properly f**k up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    Nigelb said:

    That’s quite a lot of expensive and hard to replace kit.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1569369292147408896
    #Russia is now confirmed to have lost 53 combat aircraft since February 24.

    This includes:

    - 1 Su-35
    - 13 Su-34s
    - 11 Su-30s
    - 21 Su-25s
    - 6 Su-24s

    I don't know how anyone affords to go to war. Didn't the UK lost a £50m jet a few years ago when it crashed off a carrier?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure

    Charles n Co are on a pretty knifey knife edge though, we've already had inkpotgate and paternalaffectiongate from 2 senior players, both really dreadful looks, and it 's only day 5. Test matches used to last longer, in the old days.
    Neither of those events are worthy of 'gate' after them except in a sarcastic way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    148grss said:

    So accidents of birth are better than elections? Should Charles have had no issue, or died as a young man, having Andrew is just the luck of the draw?

    If they have no power, why do they need to exist at all, and if the question is "who do we replace them with" why is "nobody" not an acceptable answer?
    Accidental births can be even more embarrassing in terms of succession.

    Poor old Simon Durante- Day just wants a DNA test to prove his adoptive mother wrong.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    edited September 2022
    148grss said:

    Without tawdry politics? But they are political - cut outs from laws are inherently political (I noticed today that they are exempt from inheritance tax, for example). The ability to have state funerals is inherently political. And the effect of their existence, that those saying "Not My King" can be arrested or assaulted, is political.

    With power comes politics.

    And what values does Charles embody that an elected politician couldn't? Hell, Charles could run for elected head of state - and if he was voted in that would be fine.

    It's just weird. This inherent deference we're supposed to feel to these people, it makes my skin crawl. What makes them so important? Wealth, blood, breeding - so what?
    One of the things I do like about this country is that neither political leaders nor the monarch are usually in the business of issuing "pardons". In most other countries it seems to be the done thing, including the United States. It seems ridiculous that the POTUS can decide to pardon people at the end of their term of office just because they feel like it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,672

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1569364072185081862

    New YouGov poll finds that 44% of people in the UK say they shed a tear or welled up over the Queen's death.

    We will not have a monarchy by the time I die.

    The monarchy is secure for the next century. It's going to have a rocky few years with Charles as he's a complete dud IMO, but people will tolerate him and Camilla as they know they've got William and Catherine to come.

    After William, George and his heir will take the monarchy to 2100 and beyond...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    EPG said:

    That commitment to freedom and human rights in full: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/02/15/queen-help-pay-12m-prince-andrew-settlement/
    People have a human right to legally defend themselves, even if they are slimy people?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    148grss said:

    I would be willing to bet that the British monarchy will no longer be an established thing in the next 100 years.
    I would bet it will but I expect neither of us will be around anyway
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Nigelb said:

    That’s quite a lot of expensive and hard to replace kit.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1569369292147408896
    #Russia is now confirmed to have lost 53 combat aircraft since February 24.

    This includes:

    - 1 Su-35
    - 13 Su-34s
    - 11 Su-30s
    - 21 Su-25s
    - 6 Su-24s

    Pre war Russia was building single digit number of its SU-3x fighters/bombers. Per year.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    One of the things I do like about this country is that neither political leaders nor the monarch are in the business of issuing "pardons". In most other countries it seems to be the done thing, including the United States.
    You sure?

    Alan Turing responds. As does Mr Gallant of narwhal tusk fame.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, I am a diehard monarchist but did not cry over it
    For a full set of idiotic monarchy-related questions asked recently by YouGov, while they avoid asking the serious one, namely "Are you for abolishing or keeping the monarchy?", click here.

    The YouGov CEO and former owner of ConservativeHome seems to be without a royal decoration at the moment, but his co-founder Nadhim Zahawi is Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Out of interest, does Zahawi follow a religion? My understanding was that the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is supposed to appoint a number of Church of England ministers to livings.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    I’m offended that the police are behaving like this.

    Please can someone arrest the entirety of all U.K. police Farces?
    Liz Truss and the government could put a stop to all this nonsense if they wanted to. And it's about time they did IMO.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    edited September 2022

    I'm not looking to be unkind to the Irish.

    I am just pointing out the Irish president is an irrelevance.

    I'd have to Google to find the name, yet alone what they'd done or on what basis they'd been elected.
    How odd, given the importance of Ireland to the current Brexit mess.

    Though in fairness, I can't remember the names of the royal sovereigns of Norway, Sweden, or the Netherlands any more than I can remember their prime ministers etc.
  • HYUFD said:

    Indeed, I am a diehard monarchist but did not cry over it
    Maybe I'm unusual.

    I couldn't sleep Thursday night - I was up all night from 2am - and cried several times on Friday night. I found my daughter's confusion hard to deal with, and choked up at that. It happened again during the new King's speech.

    I went to church yesterday and emerged red-eyed, but just about managed to keep it in check. I cried again during the TV shots of the hearse carrying Her body through Scotland.

    I've had a couple of moments today when I've been close to tears. I've tried to focus on work.

    I'm struggling. I keep expecting to wake up. I keep expecting to see her walk out and be told it was all just a hoax.

    I want her back. And I know she never will be.
  • kle4 said:

    Yes, I think celebrating a 'mere' 44% welling up as an indication of poor prospects for the monarchy is an odd one. There have to be better data points for republican prospects than that almost half of people got teary (which doesn't even include all monarchists).
    I shed a tear today when the Queen was placed in the hearse at Holyrood, not just because she was the Queen but she was a much loved mother, grandmother, and great grandmother and also the setting strangely reminded me of our courting days around that area and the contrast in emotions. (Actually at the time my wife was cradling our one week old (5th) grandchild in her arm)

    Nothing to do with the abolition of the monarchy and it is rather a huge leap to assume that because 44% shed a tear the rest are uncaring and want to abolish the monarchy

    I expect it will survive for many decades to come
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Neither of those events are worthy of 'gate' after them except in a sarcastic way.
    In both cases I am genuinely horrified that you think so. That degree of self-important, bullying lack of self control in a public figure aged 73 is contemptible, and the Andrew thing - eeeuw^1,000,000. I would happily believe it was a deepfake. The fact that you blithely tolerate it is the best argument I have seen in the past 5 days, for immediate abolition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    Maybe I'm unusual.

    I couldn't sleep Thursday night - I was up all night from 2am - and cried several times on Friday night. I found my daughter's confusion hard to deal with, and choked up at that. It happened again during the new King's speech.

    I went to church yesterday and emerged red-eyed, but just about managed to keep it in check. I cried again during the TV shots of the hearse carrying Her body through Scotland.

    I've had a couple of moments today when I've been close to tears. I've tried to focus on work.

    I'm struggling. I keep expecting to wake up. I keep expecting to see her walk out and be told it was all just a hoax.

    I want her back. And I know she never will be.
    It's ok to be a bit unusual.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742

    Yes, it is a de facto ally of the Conservative Party, albeit SNPers hate this when it’s pointed out.
    I like a good SNP wind up as much as the next poster, probably more than most, but this is nonsense.
    For the purposes of this bet that there will be a Labour majority they are of course on the same side of the fence as all the other parties, including the Tories, but if the SNP have the balance of power SKS will be PM. No doubt about that whatsoever
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Does anyone have any recommendations for 5 days in Seville?

    Other than eat so much ham I explode?

    I know the city pretty well. Been here a few times. But this is my first visit in a decade. Maybe I need to get up to speed

    It feels gloriously vivacious. As ever. But also prosperous in a way that Florence did not, two weeks ago. Florence is still grander, of course
  • On the topic of how secure the monarchy is... as long as republicans are willing to vote for monarchist parties, but monarchists are unwilling to vote for explicitly republican parties it is safe. The only way I can see that changing is if Charles really does properly f**k up.

    Yeah, I'm a soft and uncommitted republican. If you ask me what's best I'd say a republic. But its not in the top 100 list of things to change in the country, if its worth changing at all. For us to actually become a Republic, not only would I need to be bothered, you would have to convince another quarter of the population who are more monarchist than the likes of me on top. Not going to happen.
  • GIN1138 said:

    The monarchy is secure for the next century. It's going to have a rocky few years with Charles as he's a complete dud IMO, but people will tolerate him and Camilla as they know they've got William and Catherine to come.

    After William, George and his heir will take the monarchy to 2100 and beyond...
    The biggest threat to the monarchy is another Corbynite takeover of the Labour Party... and I don't think the MPs will be stupid enough to lend votes to a Corybnite candidate ever again.
  • Carnyx said:

    How odd, given the importance of Ireland to the current Brexit mess.

    Though in fairness, I can't remember the names of the royal sovereigns of Norway, Sweden, or the Netherlands any more than I can remember their prime ministers etc.
    Ireland is a useful tool of the EU to procure a softer Brexit from the British.

    Nothing more, nothing less.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Dynamo said:

    For a full set of idiotic monarchy-related questions asked recently by YouGov, while they avoid asking the serious one, namely "Are you for abolishing or keeping the monarchy?", click here.

    The YouGov CEO and former owner of ConservativeHome seems to be without a royal decoration at the moment, but his co-founder Nadhim Zahawi is Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Out of interest, does Zahawi follow a religion? My understanding was that the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is supposed to appoint a number of Church of England ministers to livings.
    This is the closest one (you have the option to opt for Republicanism) - 17% said no one should succeed after Lizzie. I would like to see an AV version of this - who would prefer republicanism to Charles, but happy with William, etc.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/who-should-succeed-as-king-after-queen-elizabeth-ii?crossBreak=1824
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    Dynamo said:

    It was more popular. Are you sure it still is?

    The 1950s were sold as a time of "you've never had it so good".

    Please do run with the line that it's the opponents of the royal family who are the real elite. Condemn education too. Most people who are in the first generation in their family to attend university are pleased about going there and hope their offspring will go to university too. The working class values education far more than you know.

    Monarchism is falling in popularity among the young and may be about to collapse generally, except among diehard Tories - those who may or may not hold party cards but who have always voted for the party and who couldn't imagine ever not voting either Tory or for some outfit even further to the right.

    And what is the monarchy but the Tory party playing dressup? Most of the population would agree with that characterisation. You can't live forever on Princess Elizabeth changing a few tyres in the 1940s when she was in the army. (And wasn't that when the family were all about to scarper to Canada anyway?)

    45% of voters think an apprenticeship is the best preparation for life, just 4% a University degree, 44% both equally.

    The Queen was a non graduate mechanic in the war of course, William an air ambulance pilot
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/06/17/are-apprenticeships-better-university-degrees-youn
  • ydoethur said:

    Michael D. Higgins, no?

    And do I remember his wife expressing pro-Nazi sentiments or something along those lines and having to be slapped down?
    Source?
  • Maybe I'm unusual.

    I couldn't sleep Thursday night - I was up all night from 2am - and cried several times on Friday night. I found my daughter's confusion hard to deal with, and choked up at that. It happened again during the new King's speech.

    I went to church yesterday and emerged red-eyed, but just about managed to keep it in check. I cried again during the TV shots of the hearse carrying Her body through Scotland.

    I've had a couple of moments today when I've been close to tears. I've tried to focus on work.

    I'm struggling. I keep expecting to wake up. I keep expecting to see her walk out and be told it was all just a hoax.

    I want her back. And I know she never will be.
    We all respond to things differently. I choose never to be unhappy for any stretch.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Doctors do not have to not work and the funeral is only 2 hours
    Edinburgh is being almost shut down for two whole days. The police have advised people to "stay or work at home" [sic] and not to undertake non-essential travel. Apparently standing in a crowd of fawning fools holding up smartphones at a flag-wrapped box containing the corpse of a monarch is "essential" activity.

    London will be shut down for longer and over a much larger area. There will be far more choreography with the stiff, and all sorts of heads of state etc. will be turning up from abroad. It will be the biggest security operation London has ever seen. So the idea is STFU everyone who lives in Britain's largest city and concentrate on watching your betters on TV, rather than polluting the world outside your house with your smelly presence.
  • The USA is convulsed by political problems, and Ireland is a total irrelevance with a President no-one knows the name of or cares about.

    The British monarchy has been a hugely stabilising and unifying force in our national life, has created a global organisation for individual freedom and human rights, and is a huge projector of British soft power.

    If you need reminding of this then you're really not thinking very hard.
    President Higgins is very well-known and liked in his own country. Won the presidential election twice. You are, as so often on here, completely wrong.
  • HYUFD said:

    Charles to be fair has said he will live in Clarence House and open Buckingham Palace all year round to tourists and just have an office there.

    He will also make Balmoral a memorial to his mother
    I understand he is considering gifting it to the nation
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606

    Ireland is a useful tool of the EU to procure a softer Brexit from the British.

    Nothing more, nothing less.
    A remarkable understanding of the last few centuries of UK history. But I'll leave you with your grief.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    edited September 2022
    DavidL said:

    I like a good SNP wind up as much as the next poster, probably more than most, but this is nonsense.
    For the purposes of this bet that there will be a Labour majority they are of course on the same side of the fence as all the other parties, including the Tories, but if the SNP have the balance of power SKS will be PM. No doubt about that whatsoever
    Leon said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations for 5 days in Seville?

    Other than eat so much ham I explode?

    I know the city pretty well. Been here a few times. But this is my first visit in a decade. Maybe I need to get up to speed

    It feels gloriously vivacious. As ever. But also prosperous in a way that Florence did not, two weeks ago. Florence is still grander, of course

    I have a friend who is currently in Granada, which I haven’t seen in 20 years.

    It looks astonishingly clean and even prosperous which I not how I remember it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    148grss said:

    This is the closest one (you have the option to opt for Republicanism) - 17% said no one should succeed after Lizzie. I would like to see an AV version of this - who would prefer republicanism to Charles, but happy with William, etc.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/who-should-succeed-as-king-after-queen-elizabeth-ii?crossBreak=1824
    So almost twice as many voters voted for Corbyn even in 2019 than want a republic. If republicans cannot even win all those who voted for Corbyn does not say much about their campaigning!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281


    The USA is convulsed by political problems, and Ireland is a total irrelevance with a President no-one knows the name of or cares about.

    The British monarchy has been a hugely stabilising and unifying force in our national life, has created a global organisation for individual freedom and human rights, and is a huge projector of British soft power.

    If you need reminding of this then you're really not thinking very hard.

    Longevity, by its nature, tends to promote stability and unity. Some talk about Thatcher and her transformative impact - I'd put up Lee Kuan Yew who was an MP in Singapore for 60 years and Prime Minister for over 30 years - few would argue he wasn't a unifying and stabilising figure and he was a democratically elected politician who had to go through periodic elections.

    Few would also argue Singapore wasn't transformed during his tenure.

    If you're around long enough, people get used to you and are reassured by your presence. Countries whose constitutions impose term limits on Presidents don't have that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1569364072185081862

    New YouGov poll finds that 44% of people in the UK say they shed a tear or welled up over the Queen's death.

    We will not have a monarchy by the time I die.

    An erroneous assumption. Many people don't necessarily cry when they're sad.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    In both cases I am genuinely horrified that you think so. That degree of self-important, bullying lack of self control in a public figure aged 73 is contemptible, and the Andrew thing - eeeuw^1,000,000. I would happily believe it was a deepfake. The fact that you blithely tolerate it is the best argument I have seen in the past 5 days, for immediate abolition.
    Well, I am glad you're not in power then, as I don't fancy being abolished.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632

    Maybe I'm unusual.

    I couldn't sleep Thursday night - I was up all night from 2am - and cried several times on Friday night. I found my daughter's confusion hard to deal with, and choked up at that. It happened again during the new King's speech.

    I went to church yesterday and emerged red-eyed, but just about managed to keep it in check. I cried again during the TV shots of the hearse carrying Her body through Scotland.

    I've had a couple of moments today when I've been close to tears. I've tried to focus on work.

    I'm struggling. I keep expecting to wake up. I keep expecting to see her walk out and be told it was all just a hoax.

    I want her back. And I know she never will be.
    I want her back too. Because she was really good at the job, I think. I don't think that's unusual. We are poorer for her loss. You don't have to be a monarchist to think that.

    I do confess a tear came to my eye when Scott posted that poster of her picture above the street in London with her quote from Covid about seeing each other again. Not because I believe in heaven or anything, but because covid was one of her last jobs, and she did it really well. It was one of the few times I've personally felt comforted by something the queen has said; by something any public figure has said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    kle4 said:

    Bit unkind - unlike certain people on twitter (probably from the US), political Irish responses to death of the Queen have been well done.
    Though we have just been to Dublin and certainly saw some grafitti with expletives about the late Queen, though most were polite and offered condolences
  • DavidL said:

    I like a good SNP wind up as much as the next poster, probably more than most, but this is nonsense.
    For the purposes of this bet that there will be a Labour majority they are of course on the same side of the fence as all the other parties, including the Tories, but if the SNP have the balance of power SKS will be PM. No doubt about that whatsoever
    I suspect Nicola won't, but if Salmond was still leading the SNP and Truss offered him indyref2 and Labour wouldn't.... I could see him being tempted.
    Truss won't though, anyway.
  • stodge said:

    Look after yourself, my friend.

    Get to your happy place - May 2nd 2024, 10pm, as the chimes of Big Ben fade and BBC, ITV and Sky all announce their exit poll showing a Labour landslide.
    Hi stodge, welcome back.

    Not sure if I asked you this before but are you a Labour member?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    kle4 said:

    You'll take the case I assume? :)
    For which side?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    edited September 2022

    President Higgins is very well-known and liked in his own country. Won the presidential election twice. You are, as so often on here, completely wrong.
    Sorry, who the fuck are you?
  • I don't expect us to become a republic but the Police and some royalists are making a good stab at saying why it should happen.

    In a free society even people who don't get what they want can have an opinion. Wrongthink isn't meant to get Police action.

    Whenever Boris spoke outside you'd normally hear hecklers not far away, that's quite right and appropriate. Even if the hecklers lose an election, they still get to speak afterwards.

    Even if most want to keep the monarchy, people who don't should be free to protest peacefully, just as they're free to protest against the PM or anyone else.

    The Police are abusing the public order law in the same way the Hong Kong police abuse the national security law. The public order law needs to be abolished if the Police won't stop abusing it.
  • I suspect Nicola won't, but if Salmond was still leading the SNP and Truss offered him indyref2 and Labour wouldn't.... I could see him being tempted.
    Truss won't though, anyway.
    If Truss thought it was a dead cert win, she might. I can certainly imagine Johnson doing so.

    The fact is, every vote for the SNP is a vote against Labour. In turn, this makes a Labour government less likely, and a Tory government more likely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    Source?
    Ah, no, she called for a ceasefire in Ukraine which implicitly favoured Russia

    https://www.ft.com/content/ba11ee11-2d8d-4e9d-bca5-7b73ef63d9fd

    I knew it was something to with Nazis, but not the details.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    148grss said:

    This is the closest one (you have the option to opt for Republicanism) - 17% said no one should succeed after Lizzie. I would like to see an AV version of this - who would prefer republicanism to Charles, but happy with William, etc.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/who-should-succeed-as-king-after-queen-elizabeth-ii?crossBreak=1824
    That's an interesting one. It'd be nice to have a question asking "Do you want King Charles to be king or not?"


  • HYUFD said:

    45% of voters think an apprenticeship is the best preparation for life, just 4% a University degree, 44% both equally.

    The Queen was a non graduate mechanic in the war of course, William an air ambulance pilot
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/06/17/are-apprenticeships-better-university-degrees-youn
    I'm not entirely sure their apprenticeships were all that influential in terms of the Queen's ascent to the position of Head of State of the UK, nor Prince William's recent promotion to heir apparent. Their career trajectories were shaped by other factors.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited September 2022
    kle4 said:

    I don't know how anyone affords to go to war. Didn't the UK lost a £50m jet a few years ago when it crashed off a carrier?
    Ukraine has suffered pretty badly, too.

    #Ukraine is confirmed to have lost 42 combat aircraft since February 24.

    This includes:

    - 5 Su-27s
    - 12 Su-25s
    - 11 Su-24s
    - 12 MiG-29s…


    The Russian kit is cheaper than ours, obviously, but wars are breathtakingly expensive.
  • kle4 said:

    It's ok to be a bit unusual.
    I agree and compassion should be the order of the day for all those devastated by the death of the Queen

    Indeed it is rather odd not to show compassion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited September 2022

    I'm not looking to be unkind to the Irish.

    I am just pointing out the Irish president is an irrelevance.

    I'd have to Google to find the name, yet alone what they'd done or on what basis they'd been elected.
    Michael D Higgins. We saw the Presidential residence while in Dublin which looks much like the White House and was the viceroy's residence.

    He is a perfectly nice intelligent man and spoke on the Late late show about his memories of the Queen but few outside Ireland have heard of him and as a ceremonial head of state has no more powers really than King Charles
  • Does anyone know enough about the practicalities of visiting the lying in state in St. Giles? BBC Coverage is heavily London slanted. I live about 2.5 hours drive away (on a normal day) in Northern England and could set off in around an hour. And I need to be at work tomorrow. This would be utter stupidity if there really is an 11 hour queue - but surely it will thin out?
  • HYUFD said:

    Though we have just been to Dublin and certainly saw some grafitti with expletives about the late Queen, though most were polite and offered condolences
    Very unusual for graffiti.
  • I am not sure why a certain poster feels the need to denigrate the Irish President.

    It is possible to make a case for monarchy without doing so.
  • Maybe I'm unusual.

    I couldn't sleep Thursday night - I was up all night from 2am - and cried several times on Friday night. I found my daughter's confusion hard to deal with, and choked up at that. It happened again during the new King's speech.

    I went to church yesterday and emerged red-eyed, but just about managed to keep it in check. I cried again during the TV shots of the hearse carrying Her body through Scotland.

    I've had a couple of moments today when I've been close to tears. I've tried to focus on work.

    I'm struggling. I keep expecting to wake up. I keep expecting to see her walk out and be told it was all just a hoax.

    I want her back. And I know she never will be.
    You are grieving a loss along with many others and you need to be kind to yourself as do others to you
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Leon said:

    Just made a pitifully epicene Gen Z fuckwit void his Woke and neutered bowels with Fear

    Such strength! Such intellect! Such machismo! How do we keep you on the board?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    So almost twice as many voters voted for Corbyn even in 2019 than want a republic. If republicans cannot even win all those who voted for Corbyn does not say much about their campaigning!
    That is a resounding defeat for monarchy: 24% for abolition vs 10% for Charles to succeed, a victory by 240%. The 38% who want Baldy 4 king are neither here nor there because arbitrary selection of a non candidate isn't monarchy, it is a presidency, because that's how monarchy works.
  • stodge said:

    Longevity, by its nature, tends to promote stability and unity. Some talk about Thatcher and her transformative impact - I'd put up Lee Kuan Yew who was an MP in Singapore for 60 years and Prime Minister for over 30 years - few would argue he wasn't a unifying and stabilising figure and he was a democratically elected politician who had to go through periodic elections.

    Few would also argue Singapore wasn't transformed during his tenure.

    If you're around long enough, people get used to you and are reassured by your presence. Countries whose constitutions impose term limits on Presidents don't have that.
    Perhaps, but then you have relatively short reigning monarchs like Edward VII and George VI who were heavily mourned after their loss.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    The key to understanding Anglo-Irish relations is that the Irish care MUCH more about the English/Brits than the British care about Ireland. It’s a mere function of size, geography, history, destiny, and cannot be altered

    At its worst it breeds a violent inferiority complex on the Irish side and a careless superiority complex on the British side. Neither is attractive

    The joy of the EU was that it allowed this psychodynamic to be diluted into a greater European identity, trouble is we’re British and we’re better than all that diluted EU shit and who cares about the fucking Irish anyway, big trotting dung eating Buddhists or whatever they are


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    DavidL said:

    For which side?

    The one offering better fees/reputational advancement, obviously.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281

    Hi stodge, welcome back.

    Not sure if I asked you this before but are you a Labour member?
    No, my friend. I live in the most Labour of areas but I'm not a supporter.

    That being said, currently, I'd much prefer a Government led by Starmer to one led by Truss.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    DougSeal said:

    Such strength! Such intellect! Such machismo! How do we keep you on the board?
    TSE is going to set up a crowdfund I believe. I am getting offers from Reddit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    stodge said:

    Longevity, by its nature, tends to promote stability and unity. Some talk about Thatcher and her transformative impact - I'd put up Lee Kuan Yew who was an MP in Singapore for 60 years and Prime Minister for over 30 years - few would argue he wasn't a unifying and stabilising figure and he was a democratically elected politician who had to go through periodic elections.

    Few would also argue Singapore wasn't transformed during his tenure.

    If you're around long enough, people get used to you and are reassured by your presence. Countries whose constitutions impose term limits on Presidents don't have that.
    Are you seriously arguing that Lee Kuan Yew was a democrat in any meaningful sense of the word?

  • Carnyx said:

    A remarkable understanding of the last few centuries of UK history. But I'll leave you with your grief.
    The idea that the EU genuinely gives a shit about the GFA and the NI peace process is rather sweet. If they did they'd have been interested in brokering a deal that suited the interests of both nationalists and unionists.

    They support Ireland "to the hilt" because it aligned itself 100% with its political interests of EU in protecting the existing rules for the integrity of the single market rather than flexing them.

    Had it taken a different tack it would have found itself marginalised.
  • 1.4m people in Canada - that’s 1 in 27 - claim Ukrainian ancestry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I agree and compassion should be the order of the day for all those devastated by the death of the Queen

    Indeed it is rather odd not to show compassion
    Deep sympathy for the non-sex-offenders in her immediate and extended family and circle. Otherwise, howls of derisive laughter interspersed with cries of Get a life.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281
    DougSeal said:

    Such strength! Such intellect! Such machismo! How do we keep you on the board?
    It's only the weight of his snobbery that keeps this forum going. How would we cope without knowing where the best oysters are to be found or the right people with whom to enjoy them?
  • You are grieving a loss along with many others and you need to be kind to yourself as do others to you
    What I struggle with: why isn't everyone else? Why doesn't everyone feel the same way I do?

    She was Queen for decades and decades for all of us and I don't think you get better or more self-sacrificing human beings than Elizabeth Windsor. She did so much for us, so consistently, and is a key factor in the making of a stable modern Britain, buttressed by an amazing organisation- the Commonwealth- that reflects our values.

    I don't understand why others don't feel the same way, and it makes me even more upset when I detect indifference.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    ydoethur said:

    Does crying with laughter at the thought of A Johnson's rage and frustration count?

    If so, I'm in the 44.

    If not, I'm in the 56.
    I suspect there has also been a run on incontinence pants at the thought of "Johnson's rage and frustration".
  • HYUFD said:

    Michael D Higgins. We saw the Presidential residence while in Dublin which looks much like the White House and was the viceroy's residence.

    He is a perfectly nice intelligent man and spoke on the Late late show about his memories of the Queen but few outside Ireland have heard of him and as a ceremonial head of state has no more powers really than King Charles
    Yes, but you had to Google that didn't you? Not that you'd admit it.

    My point is no-one knows him and still fewer care, so he projects nothing.

    I'm not trying to be rude - just to make a point that if you adopt the Irish or German model you are opting for invisibility.
  • ydoethur said:

    Ah, no, she called for a ceasefire in Ukraine which implicitly favoured Russia

    https://www.ft.com/content/ba11ee11-2d8d-4e9d-bca5-7b73ef63d9fd

    I knew it was something to with Nazis, but not the details.
    Had zero to do with Nazis, and Mrs Higgins has condemned Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    She's a lefty AND a neutralist (like many Irish people) certainly NOT a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    That is a resounding defeat for monarchy: 24% for abolition vs 10% for Charles to succeed, a victory by 240%. The 38% who want Baldy 4 king are neither here nor there because arbitrary selection of a non candidate isn't monarchy, it is a presidency, because that's how monarchy works.
    That was under 25s, amongst all adults 34% wanted Charles to succeed. Double the 17% for a republic
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    edited September 2022

    Does anyone know enough about the practicalities of visiting the lying in state in St. Giles? BBC Coverage is heavily London slanted. I live about 2.5 hours drive away (on a normal day) in Northern England and could set off in around an hour. And I need to be at work tomorrow. This would be utter stupidity if there really is an 11 hour queue - but surely it will thin out?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62876366

    The High Kirk is approxiumately pinned here

    https://www.google.com/maps/dir//High+St,+Edinburgh/@55.9433063,-3.201276,14.6z/data=!4m9!4m8!1m0!1m5!1m1!1s0x4887c78579199905:0x704325f4388b3d8b!2m2!1d-3.1880165!2d55.9501163!3e0

    But if these are right the queue is running down south into the Meadows (the green bits to the south).

    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    https://twitter.com/markcousinsfilm/status/1569379113294610432?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    If driving you'd almost certainly need to get a park and ride (Straiton perhaps) and bus in and back. If you could get on the bus? Lothian Buses website is worth checking in case they have specials.

    No idea at all as to whether it is a practical idea or not.
  • What I struggle with: why isn't everyone else? Why doesn't everyone feel the same way I do?

    She was Queen for decades and decades for all of us and I don't think you get better or more self-sacrificing human beings than Elizabeth Windsor. She did so much for us, so consistently, and is a key factor in the making of a stable modern Britain, buttressed by an amazing organisation- the Commonwealth- that reflects our values.

    I don't understand why others don't feel the same way, and it makes me even more upset when I detect indifference.
    There will always be those who dislike the monarchy, indeed want a republic, but they are a minority and console yourself that the vast majority of the country are on your side
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    Had zero to do with Nazis, and Mrs Higgins has condemned Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    She's a lefty AND a neutralist (like many Irish people) certainly NOT a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer.
    Yes it did, it was to do with the Russian government.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,672

    The biggest threat to the monarchy is another Corbynite takeover of the Labour Party... and I don't think the MPs will be stupid enough to lend votes to a Corybnite candidate ever again.
    I don't believe a Corbyn figure could ever win an election. That belief was shaken in 2017 with how close he came but was reaffirmed in 2019.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    1.4m people in Canada - that’s 1 in 27 - claim Ukrainian ancestry.

    Glory hunters. Up from 200,000 a year ago.

    I resent the way we have been made to be unfocused from what may be the best story of an entire lifetime, in favour of a pair of well-heeled but seedy OAPs claiming an inheritance.
  • I don't expect us to become a republic but the Police and some royalists are making a good stab at saying why it should happen.

    In a free society even people who don't get what they want can have an opinion. Wrongthink isn't meant to get Police action.

    Whenever Boris spoke outside you'd normally hear hecklers not far away, that's quite right and appropriate. Even if the hecklers lose an election, they still get to speak afterwards.

    Even if most want to keep the monarchy, people who don't should be free to protest peacefully, just as they're free to protest against the PM or anyone else.

    The Police are abusing the public order law in the same way the Hong Kong police abuse the national security law. The public order law needs to be abolished if the Police won't stop abusing it.

    I don’t lay the blame for this over-zealousness at the foot of the monarchy. I lay the blame at the over-zealousness of the police force who are upholding the status quo rather than allowing freedom of speech.

    I support the continuation of the monarchy but someone shouting or heckling at the proclamation of a new monarch is well within their right.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Britain Elects

    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (-)
    CON: 35% (+6)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 11 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 24 Jul

    There’s your bounce? Where it’s coming from I’m even less clear about.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    What I struggle with: why isn't everyone else? Why doesn't everyone feel the same way I do?

    She was Queen for decades and decades for all of us and I don't think you get better or more self-sacrificing human beings than Elizabeth Windsor. She did so much for us, so consistently, and is a key factor in the making of a stable modern Britain, buttressed by an amazing organisation- the Commonwealth- that reflects our values.

    I don't understand why others don't feel the same way, and it makes me even more upset when I detect indifference.
    People feel differently about things.

    That's just life, that is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672

    The USA is convulsed by political problems, and Ireland is a total irrelevance with a President no-one knows the name of or cares about.

    The British monarchy has been a hugely stabilising and unifying force in our national life, has created a global organisation for individual freedom and human rights, and is a huge projector of British soft power.

    If you need reminding of this then you're really not thinking very hard.
    I think the French presidency works well in practice, though we are close to the point where people in France vote in their Trump who may smash the system up just as Trump did in the US.
This discussion has been closed.