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LAB is grossly over-priced in the GE majority betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anyway, Widecombe Fair tomorrow for the first time in 3 years. Yay.

    Will Ann be there?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    edited September 2022

    Are you basing this on what she actually said, or upon your impression of what she allegedly said?

    Personally disagree to a degree with Mrs Higgins original statement, and consider it unwise, as she did herself upon mature reflection.

    Which is NOT same as concluding that it was intended to "clearly" favor Putin. NOT in Irish context, and not (I think) in her case.
    Well thank you for simply presuming my response is rooted in ignorance. I have read it, and her 'mature reflection' afterwards. Her letter was standard 'war is bad, mmkay' presumption that therefore anything is preferable to conflict, the offering of a false choice that on one side you have moral people who want to end war, and those who want war. It also seemed to me her primary concern in her reflection was irritation at being criticised. The 'I'm sorry, but' of responses. As in:

    I cannot be but dismayed that people would find anything unacceptable in a plea for peace and negotiations when the future of humanity is threatened by war, global warming and famine,” Ms Higgins said.

    But to the specific point you raise, whether someone 'intends' to favour Putin is hardly the point, as it is not the same as whether their words or actions actually do favour him.

    To take a more extreme example Stop the War, for instance, may claim they do not intend to favour Putin, and some of them probably even mean it, but their words and desired outcomes clearly do favour him.

    Should they be immune from criticism because they do not 'intend' it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    MaxPB said:

    I also find the whole "nation in mourning" stuff very overdone. The Queen was 96 years old. This was expected and while it is a bit sad that she's no longer here, the whole narrative around it is just getting a bit much. It feels similar to the poppy wankers and NHS clappers finding enemies where few exist.

    Accusing people of being insufficiently sad because of this is a few steps too far, I hope the BBC, in particular, calms down over the next few days.

    There are some signs they’re recognising that, and recalling their impartiality remit.
    PM, for example, carried an unbiased interview with the Oxford protester. (Who was a pretty polite and respectful chap.)
  • HYUFD said:

    So after the death of one of our greatest ever monarchs should we just have a close friends and family funeral only with wake at Mcdonalds?

    Of course not, this will likely be the biggest funeral of a head of state globally since Kennedy's in 1963
    McDonald's? No, I would choose Leon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Will Ann be there?
    No just the usual crowd. Bill Brewer, ....
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743
    One for @Foxy:

    'The truth is that schools don’t really teach anything except how to obey orders. This is a great mystery to me, because thousands of humane, caring people work in schools as teachers and aides and administrators, but the abstract logic of the institution overwhelms their individual contributions. Although teachers do care and do work very, very hard, the institution is psychopathic; it has no conscience. It rings a bell, and the young man in the middle of writing a poem must close his notebook and move to a different cell, where he learns that humans and monkeys derive from a common ancestor.'

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210526140820/https://www.thesunmagazine.org/issues/175/why-schools-dont-educate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    No just the usual crowd. Bill Brewer, ....
    She lives in Devon now though
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    148grss said:

    Members here have "joked" that traitors should be hanged
    No, that’s just the usual PB jerkery; no big deal from the usual suspects.
    I was talking about physical violence towards protesters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    IshmaelZ said:

    Prince Andrew and his ex-wife will take on the Queen's beloved corgis, following the monarch's death. Sky News

    is it because he's good at grooming

    https://twitter.com/sophsa/status/1569080176562126849

    They need some comics on staff to try to predict how people can make jokes of these things, that's a good one.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Nigelb said:

    No, that’s just the usual PB jerkery; no big deal from the usual suspects.
    I was talking about physical violence towards protesters.
    But there hasnt been any. Two blokes shoved the Andrew guy. Where is the rest of this violence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001



    Celebrating the life of a national treasure is one thing. All the pomp, circumstance AND expense surrounding the succession is another.

    The nation freezes and starves and this old caper carries on, no expense spared.

    Ooh but it generates so much income for the nation. Not for me it doesn't.
    The pomp of succession is part of the point of it. I do wonder when they will have the coronation though, since we're about to have an awful winter financially, it won't look good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    DavidL said:

    To determine that we need to know what a Ukrainian win is. The Anne Applebaum article I linked to this afternoon is really worth a read.

    How does this end? With Putin following so many of his enemies out a window? Probably. But then what? Is Russia going to tolerate hundreds or even thousands of its men being prosecuted for war crimes? Do they pay to rebuild Ukraine? What happens to Crimea? To the people they have stolen?

    Even putting the outside risk of a nuclear war to one side how does this horror end?
    I honestly don’t know. It’s deeply tricky.
    We’ll see.
    But the US right’s argument that weapons supply to Ukraine was futile and wrong has been comprehensively refuted.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited September 2022
    For pb foodies - that dish is “deep fried homemade pork belly with lime zest and pickled chili peppers”. Eat it with superb sourdough and down it with a large glass of fine ice cold manzanilla

    Everything cuts through everything else. 10/10

    Costs £7

    The Spanish are now the best cooks in the world. Discuss

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    Enforced monarchism is not democratic.
    What's enforced about it? There are political parties to vote for who are explicitly republican, and its legal to vote for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    kle4 said:

    The pomp of succession is part of the point of it. I do wonder when they will have the coronation though, since we're about to have an awful winter financially, it won't look good.
    It likely won't be until the Spring and something to look forward to, unless you are over 75 you likely have no living memory of a coronation day and unless you are over 70 you won't have been alive for the last one
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    For pb foodies - that dish is “deep fried homemade pork belly with lime zest and pickled chili peppers”. Eat it with superb sourdough and down it with a large glass of fine ice cold manzanilla

    Everything cuts through everything else. 10/10

    Costs £7

    The Spanish are now the best cooks in the world. Discuss

    They dropped their shopping in a fuck off big pan and called it paella.
  • To be honest I have no idea how you interpret such a simple statement

    Nowhere did I say I was 'glad' he trashed the brand
    "It just demonstrates how Johnson trashed the brand before he was ejected from office, thankfully"

    The sentence above says it. The implication it makes is that what happened was much better than Johnson trashing the brand after being ejected from office.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,740


    But there hasnt been any. Two blokes shoved the Andrew guy. Where is the rest of this violence?
    Quite. This is a deeply civilised and largely civil country who generally disapprove of bad manners. Endless people forecast chaos, hatred and violence. They are almost universally wrong. It’s something to be proud of.

  • Leon said:

    Supposedly the best tapas bar in Seville. I am a happy man


    Went to Seville twenty years ago during an incredibly hot early September. Loved it. Always wanted to go back and stay at the Alfonso hotel.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    Going to be funny when an FOI reveals they took the Queen's coffin down to London yesterday and the one in Edinburgh is a decoy.
  • HYUFD said:

    So after the death of one of our greatest ever monarchs should we just have a close friends and family funeral only with wake at Mcdonalds?

    Of course not, this will likely be the biggest funeral of a head of state globally since Kennedy's in 1963
    It is, but it is far too much 24/7 coverage and ironically I do think the excess coverage is not helping to assuage critics

    Certain events should be covered, but outside these events normal news should be available not least the events in Ukraine

    Remember it is only Monday and there is another week of this by which time I expect even loyal monarchist will be saying we need more balance

    Indeed it is essential Charles and others review these excesses and trim down the grieving process, as frankly without it I fear the demands for a republic will grow
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    McDonald's? No, I would choose Leon.
    Balmoral's in Farquhason territory, I think? MacDonald is on the other side of the country based on the Isles.
  • She suggested that Zelensky was immoral to continue the war and her letter won the support of the Russian regime.

    image
    Basing opinion what what you think "she suggested" is NOT compellingly persuasive to me.

    NOR is quoting a lying Putinist puppet (regardless of the type-size). Though that quote shows WHY Mrs Higgin's statement was a mistake. Which she herself admitted.

    NOT because of what she meant to say. But rather because of the way her words would be - and were - twisted. Are still are being twisted.

    Calling Mrs Higgins a Nazi sympathizer is disgraceful. And claiming she's a Putinist is laughable.

    Certainly SHE never stated, on the eve of invasion, that the Ukrainians should just lie back and let themselves be raped, because the West wouldn't lift a finger for them.

    Ask the Ukrainian war refugees in Ireland today if they agree with THAT opinion.
  • @sentdefender
    Ukrainian and Western Intelligence is reporting that Russian Military Command has not recently deployed any additional Battalion Tactical Groups into Ukraine and seems to have suspended all further Combat Deployments into the Country.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569392150638460931
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,641
    Nigelb said:

    I’m more surprised when people agree with me.
    How often have people here experienced someone completely changing their mind as a result of an argument that we've made? I've only experienced it twice in a lifetime of politics - lots of "Hmm, I see what you mean" and "There may be something in that", but almost never "My God, you're absolutely right and I was completely wrong". In both cases, I gazed at the convert in open-mouthed astonishment, wondering if he was taking the piss (apparently not!).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    kle4 said:

    What's enforced about it? There are political parties to vote for who are explicitly republican, and its legal to vote for them.
    Indeed, the Green Party is a pro Republic party for example
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    “Cherry gazpacho with prawn tartar and pistachio vinaigrette”

    And more sherry! And more bread!




  • I know what you mean!
    I see I have been given "Off-topic" for, I presume, not being an arch-royalist!

    Well, sad little person who did it, keep pressing the button if it makes you feel better.
  • HYUFD said:

    It likely won't be until the Spring and something to look forward to, unless you are over 75 you likely have no living memory of a coronation day and unless you are over 70 you won't have been alive for the last one
    I remember her wedding day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228

    It is, but it is far too much 24/7 coverage and ironically I do think the excess coverage is not helping to assuage critics

    Certain events should be covered, but outside these events normal news should be available not least the events in Ukraine

    Remember it is only Monday and there is another week of this by which time I expect even loyal monarchist will be saying we need more balance

    Indeed it is essential Charles and others review these excesses and trim down the grieving process, as frankly without it I fear the demands for a republic will grow
    This has not happened for 70 years and will be over in a week.

    It is not even on most channels apart from BBC1 except for the news and people also have Netflix etc
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    MaxPB said:

    I also find the whole "nation in mourning" stuff very overdone. The Queen was 96 years old. This was expected and while it is a bit sad that she's no longer here, the whole narrative around it is just getting a bit much. It feels similar to the poppy wankers and NHS clappers finding enemies where few exist.

    Accusing people of being insufficiently sad because of this is a few steps too far, I hope the BBC, in particular, calms down over the next few days.

    Yeah but you don't like anyone 70 years or older do you? ;)
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    kle4 said:

    This is what they said about recent events:

    “To achieve the goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas, a decision was made to regroup Russian troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions, to bolster efforts along the Donetsk front,” Russia's defense ministry said in a statement.

    https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-forces-retake-control-of-key-russian-stronghold/6739595.html

    That is, the operation is to 'liberate' Donbas. Now, one might argue then what the bloody hell was all that assault on Kyiv business, or Kherson, or Melipotol and so on, but it could suggest that they are going to try to reframe their goals as purely being Donbas, in which case retreat elsehwere is not really failure.

    Not sure how they can sell that, especially as even in the early days of the invasion they've never taken the entire Donbas, but they could try.

    I do think we will see western commentators who ridiculed the idea of an invasion claiming that the Donbas alone was obviously the goal all along, but that would make no sense given how much effort has been expended elsewhere.
    The Russians also have 25,000 troops trapped in Kherson, which is about a quarter of their original force. It's going to be devastating for Kremlin PR when Ukraine captures most of them as POWs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    WillG said:

    The Russians also have 25,000 troops trapped in Kherson, which is about a quarter of their original force. It's going to be devastating for Kremlin PR when Ukraine captures most of them as POWs.
    Going to present serious difficulties for the Ukrainians though, in terms of feeding and guarding them.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    How often have people here experienced someone completely changing their mind as a result of an argument that we've made? I've only experienced it twice in a lifetime of politics - lots of "Hmm, I see what you mean" and "There may be something in that", but almost never "My God, you're absolutely right and I was completely wrong". In both cases, I gazed at the convert in open-mouthed astonishment, wondering if he was taking the piss (apparently not!).
    Its usually a case of who gets bored first. The tyrrany of repetitiveness
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    edited September 2022

    Basing opinion what what you think "she suggested" is NOT compellingly persuasive to me.

    NOR is quoting a lying Putinist puppet (regardless of the type-size). Though that quote shows WHY Mrs Higgin's statement was a mistake. Which she herself admitted.

    NOT because of what she meant to say. But rather because of the way her words would be - and were - twisted. Are still are being twisted.

    Calling Mrs Higgins a Nazi sympathizer is disgraceful. And claiming she's a Putinist is laughable.

    Certainly SHE never stated, on the eve of invasion, that the Ukrainians should just lie back and let themselves be raped, because the West wouldn't lift a finger for them.

    Ask the Ukrainian war refugees in Ireland today if they agree with THAT opinion.
    I've not said she was a nazi sympathiser or putinist, so I hope you are not basing your opinion of anyone who criticised her based on what you think people who have are suggesting rather than what they are.

    What I will do, having also rechecked her letter, is say that her moral grandstanding 'neutrality' definitely favoured the Russian position and so was not neutrality at all, even if she thinks it was.

    It's been a phony position all through this war from some quarters to act like 'not' calling for peace immediately is a bad thing. Which I find very strange - most people believe that some things are worth fighting for, so being 'dismayed' that people would think a ceasefire immediately, which would cement Russian gains, is a bad idea, is very tone deaf at the very least.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318
    DavidL said:

    I quite like the 💯 but then I don’t support a county. If I did and saw all that money being drained away I would not be happy.
    The end game is franchise for 4 day game too. ECB has long wanted to make a better standard of County cricket, to rival Australian Sheffield Shield.

    I’m split on the hundred. Personally cannot watch it as the crap on the screen is distracting. I accept I’m not the audience. Some of my cricket buddies love it, some hate it. But I do worry about the end game.
  • Went to Seville twenty years ago during an incredibly hot early September. Loved it. Always wanted to go back and stay at the Alfonso hotel.

    What is that on your "plate"? It looks very interesting
  • kle4 said:

    Well thank you for simply presuming my response is rooted in ignorance. I have read it, and her 'mature reflection' afterwards. Her letter was standard 'war is bad, mmkay' presumption that therefore anything is preferable to conflict, the offering of a false choice that on one side you have moral people who want to end war, and those who want war. It also seemed to me her primary concern in her reflection was irritation at being criticised. The 'I'm sorry, but' of responses. As in:

    I cannot be but dismayed that people would find anything unacceptable in a plea for peace and negotiations when the future of humanity is threatened by war, global warming and famine,” Ms Higgins said.

    But to the specific point you raise, whether someone 'intends' to favour Putin is hardly the point, as it is not the same as whether their words or actions actually do favour him.

    To take a more extreme example Stop the War, for instance, may claim they do not intend to favour Putin, and some of them probably even mean it, but their words and desired outcomes clearly do favour him.

    Should they be immune from criticism because they do not 'intend' it?
    I can agree with much of what you say, but without endorsing your conclusion.

    Mrs Higgins was certainly NOT immune from criticism. Including from me. Just object to it being taken to point of saying - or implying - she's a Nazi sympathizer. OR anything close to it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    “Cherry gazpacho with prawn tartar and pistachio vinaigrette”

    And more sherry! And more bread!




    Seville = fine tapas, is hardly earth-shattering news tbh.
  • WillG said:

    The Russians also have 25,000 troops trapped in Kherson, which is about a quarter of their original force. It's going to be devastating for Kremlin PR when Ukraine captures most of them as POWs.
    "As Russia suffered its most humiliating defeat since the initial stage of the war in Ukraine, cracks emerged in the official narrative as lawmakers and pundits on state television cast doubt on Moscow’s prospects.

    While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down."

    NY Times blog
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,740
    Nigelb said:

    We’ll see.

    But the US right’s argument that weapons supply to Ukraine was futile and wrong has been comprehensively refuted.
    Sure. And that is a good thing, no question. And Biden deserves credit for his judgment. But the hard bit here is still to come.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    The end game is franchise for 4 day game too. ECB has long wanted to make a better standard of County cricket, to rival Australian Sheffield Shield.

    I’m split on the hundred. Personally cannot watch it as the crap on the screen is distracting. I accept I’m not the audience. Some of my cricket buddies love it, some hate it. But I do worry about the end game.
    Perhaps the ECB should rather ask themselves why a country with a population three times as large as Australia cannot support three times as many teams.

    And the reason is because cricket has been almost driven out of the lives of the majority of the population, especially those not in private schools.

    So we are drawing on, in effect, around 10% of the population for our cricketers.

    Hard to see how reducing the number of first class cricket sides would do anything other than exacerbate the problem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    How often have people here experienced someone completely changing their mind as a result of an argument that we've made? I've only experienced it twice in a lifetime of politics - lots of "Hmm, I see what you mean" and "There may be something in that", but almost never "My God, you're absolutely right and I was completely wrong". In both cases, I gazed at the convert in open-mouthed astonishment, wondering if he was taking the piss (apparently not!).
    I'm guessing this did not take place in the Commons? :)

    (Actually I recall you saying Letwin, I think, did so acknowledge once)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,769
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    This has not happened for 70 years and will be over in a week.

    It is not even on most channels apart from BBC1 except for the news and people also have Netflix etc
    It most certainly is on most channels and news channels are obsessed with it to the exclusion of everything else

    If you can't see the danger or turn a blind eye to it, or even trumpet it, then do not be surprised if the popularity of the monarchy takes quite a dive
  • How often have people here experienced someone completely changing their mind as a result of an argument that we've made? I've only experienced it twice in a lifetime of politics - lots of "Hmm, I see what you mean" and "There may be something in that", but almost never "My God, you're absolutely right and I was completely wrong". In both cases, I gazed at the convert in open-mouthed astonishment, wondering if he was taking the piss (apparently not!).
    In my humble experience, any (very limited success) at changing the minds of others, has NOT been a "road to Damascus" lightning bot of pure persuasion, but rather a drip-drip-drip of incremental impact.

    PROVIDED I was on the right track in the first place, which naturally limits the odds even more.
  • Sweden 2022 General Election

    As of now, 6,264 out of 6,578 electoral districts counted. BUT note that, according to official results webpage:

    "The preliminary vote count continues on Wednesday, September 14, with a summary count, when the electoral commissions count the votes that did not make it to the polling stations on election day. The collection votes for the Riksdag are distributed among 314 collection districts."

    S 30.5%
    SD 20.6%
    M 19.1%
    C 6.7%
    V 6.7%
    K 5.4%
    G 5.1%
    L 4.6%

    According to (notoriously Swede-phobic) New York Times (Manhattan's answer to Svenska Dagbladet):

    "With a little more than 95 percent of votes in electoral districts counted after Sunday’s election, officials said they had yet to count early mail-in votes and ballots from citizens abroad, and that the preliminary general election results would not be available until Wednesday at the earliest."

    Note that currently the right bloc has estimated 175 seats (+1 compared to 2018) versus left bloc with 174 (-1).

    Further note that at last election, 3 seats changed hands between parties from Election Night to final count.

    So it's possible that the numbers bloc v block might flip. On other hand, any change could just be a lateral, that is party loses a seat to another party in same bloc.

    Question: might overseas AND early postal votes be skewed one way or the other compared with votes already counted? And, if so, which direction?

    My own highly un-educated guess, is that Swedish Democrats may NOT do as well with late, esp. overseas vote. BUT would differential (if it exists) be sufficient to do a flip? Or just a lateral?

    https://resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

    Overseas votes (approx 200,000 of them) are strongly Moderate and Liberal. Poor for Sweden Democrats.

    NYT report has incorrect adjective: it is *late*, not “early”, advance votes that will be included on Wednesday (not “mail in” either: they are physical votes)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    @sentdefender
    Ukrainian and Western Intelligence is reporting that Russian Military Command has not recently deployed any additional Battalion Tactical Groups into Ukraine and seems to have suspended all further Combat Deployments into the Country.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569392150638460931

    I hope supplies of weapons to Ukraine will ramp up even further. It sounds bad, particularly as it has only been 6+ months, but the West has its internal divisions and financial problems, and it may have kind of needed an explicit example of Ukraine being able to make tangible gains in order to stiffen resolve amongst the backers (and their public).

    Russia's already at the point of complaining it is unfair the Ukrainians get to be resupplied by the West, now make them drown in those supplies.

    Biden, at least, gets it. Knowing our luck things will drag on reasonably successfully, then Trump wins re-election, the Ukrainians achieve the final bit of victory and he claims the credit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    IshmaelZ said:

    Prince Andrew and his ex-wife will take on the Queen's beloved corgis, following the monarch's death. Sky News

    is it because he's good at grooming

    https://twitter.com/sophsa/status/1569080176562126849

    Naughty Ishmael!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    The end game is franchise for 4 day game too. ECB has long wanted to make a better standard of County cricket, to rival Australian Sheffield Shield.

    I’m split on the hundred. Personally cannot watch it as the crap on the screen is distracting. I accept I’m not the audience. Some of my cricket buddies love it, some hate it. But I do worry about the end game.
    The Hundred can be fun, but its poor cricket. In fact, its gawdy. Its a peacock in a ballgown wearing all the costume jewellery in the shop.
  • Leon said:

    For pb foodies - that dish is “deep fried homemade pork belly with lime zest and pickled chili peppers”. Eat it with superb sourdough and down it with a large glass of fine ice cold manzanilla

    Everything cuts through everything else. 10/10

    Costs £7

    The Spanish are now the best cooks in the world. Discuss

    In terms of tummy-contentment per euro, very probably. The discipline of the menu del dia was/is a good one.

    For all Franco was a murderous thug who managed to make Spain boring, for all his political system died the moment he did (for which Juan Carlos wins a hall pass or ten, frankly), Frank the Frog got that one right.
  • Seville = fine tapas, is hardly earth-shattering news tbh.
    Place that has (or did have) some great tapas-type places (mostly Portuguese I think) is east Vancouver, BC.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Nigelb said:

    We’ll see.
    But the US right’s argument that weapons supply to Ukraine was futile and wrong has been comprehensively refuted.
    And the really good news is that there's not enough time left for the Trump Cult to try to worm its way back into power before Putin is beaten. The Russian Army is completely rotten - dying on its feet from the effects of corruption, brutality and incompetence, as much as the damage being inflicted by the Ukrainians. Large parts of it are collapsing, and the Russian state is too knackered to make good its losses.

    The main questions now are how much of Russia's ill-gotten gains can be held onto until Winter, and then whether or not the surviving Russian troops simply freeze to death in their trenches due to extreme neglect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited September 2022

    It most certainly is on most channels and news channels are obsessed with it to the exclusion of everything else

    If you can't see the danger or turn a blind eye to it, or even trumpet it, then do not be surprised if the popularity of the monarchy takes quite a dive
    Nope, currently University Challenge is on BBC2 and Coronation Street is on ITV and Motorway Cops on C5 for example

    https://www.tvguide.co.uk/mobile/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,360
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    “Cherry gazpacho with prawn tartar and pistachio vinaigrette”

    And more sherry! And more bread!




    El Rinconcillo (founded 1670) does an Espinacas con garbanzos that will blow you away. Also a great example of how a place can be very touristy and very localsy at the same time with panache.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Leon said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations for 5 days in Seville?...

    Make sure some magazine or paper is paying for your visit?
  • Overseas votes (approx 200,000 of them) are strongly Moderate and Liberal. Poor for Sweden Democrats.

    NYT report has incorrect adjective: it is *late*, not “early”, advance votes that will be included on Wednesday (not “mail in” either: they are physical votes)
    Thanks for correction - told you, the Gray Lady she's a Swede-basher!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    How often have people here experienced someone completely changing their mind as a result of an argument that we've made? I've only experienced it twice in a lifetime of politics - lots of "Hmm, I see what you mean" and "There may be something in that", but almost never "My God, you're absolutely right and I was completely wrong". In both cases, I gazed at the convert in open-mouthed astonishment, wondering if he was taking the piss (apparently not!).
    It’s only happened to me once when some was complaining about the introduction of age discrimination and I pointed out that people needed to be allowed to work longer given the massive pension shortfalls we had.

    Leon, of course, cannot but open his mouth but attract a bevy of new fawning converts.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Seville = fine tapas, is hardly earth-shattering news tbh.
    I’ve been here many times. It has stepped up several notches

    This is not just tortilla with a quirk. Or tiny bits of pig cheek in wine

    This is fucking serious cooking yet done in serious style, yet casually served like it is nibbles. Honesty superb
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    DavidL said:

    To determine that we need to know what a Ukrainian win is. The Anne Applebaum article I linked to this afternoon is really worth a read.

    How does this end? With Putin following so many of his enemies out a window? Probably. But then what? Is Russia going to tolerate hundreds or even thousands of its men being prosecuted for war crimes? Do they pay to rebuild Ukraine? What happens to Crimea? To the people they have stolen?

    Even putting the outside risk of a nuclear war to one side how does this horror end?
    I honestly don’t know. It’s deeply tricky.
    @DavidL
    That Applebaum article has no answers and no insight to offer on the question of 'what happens next in the event of a Ukraine victory'. She is just suggesting that we should embrace the chaos of a collapsing Russia.

    If people really think that the answer to all of this is to 'beat back Putin, get him overthrown' etc then they need to justify this by reference to what they see happening next. "Embrace the chaos" is an answer that is reckless to the point of being idiotic. Particularly given that nuclear weapons are in play.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    DougSeal said:

    It’s only happened to me once when some was complaining about the introduction of age discrimination and I pointed out that people needed to be allowed to work longer given the massive pension shortfalls we had.

    Leon, of course, cannot but open his mouth but attract a bevy of new fawning converts.

    Mainly, erstwhile left-wing, woke remoaners who suddently see the alt-right light.

    It happens so often I am surprised there are any 'woke' still to find; they must be an endangered species.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    There are a surprising number of Russian Baptist churches in this area, almost all along Washington state's main north-south route, I-5. (I believe SeaShantyIrish2 is right about the late Senator Jackson being partly responsible for that, just as he helped Jews leave the old Soviet Union.)

    Russian Baptists were persecuted under the Czars and the Soviets, and now again, under Putin. As far as I know, they are peaceful people, who want to be left alone with their traditional religious beliefs.

    (I am not a big fan of Angela Merkel, but I did commend her for standing up for another much-persecuted sect in Russia, the Jehovah Witnesses.)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318
    ydoethur said:

    Perhaps the ECB should rather ask themselves why a country with a population three times as large as Australia cannot support three times as many teams.

    And the reason is because cricket has been almost driven out of the lives of the majority of the population, especially those not in private schools.

    So we are drawing on, in effect, around 10% of the population for our cricketers.

    Hard to see how reducing the number of first class cricket sides would do anything other than exacerbate the problem.
    Realistically the two tier county championship works, but you need to give it the priority it deserves, not have the title decided in late September by who gets lucky with the weather. Hampshire scraped a win last week with what would have been the last ball of the match. Both Surrey and Hampshire have two more games left (after the current Surrey match finishes). It’s Sept 12th already.

    There is hope at grass roots. I help coach juniors and the club is over run by them. Keeping them is harder. Keeping cricket on free to air is crucial.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    I’ve been here many times. It has stepped up several notches

    This is not just tortilla with a quirk. Or tiny bits of pig cheek in wine

    This is fucking serious cooking yet done in serious style, yet casually served like it is nibbles. Honesty superb
    Well tbf I was last there in October 2018 and the tapas was sublime. Must go back soon!

    Edit: Actually I had some rather lovely tapas a few weeks ago at, I kid you not, 'Breezy Ridge Vineyard' just south of Shaftesbury. Duck livers on toasted sourdough - sublime!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    darkage said:

    @DavidL
    That Applebaum article has no answers and no insight to offer on the question of 'what happens next in the event of a Ukraine victory'. She is just suggesting that we should embrace the chaos of a collapsing Russia.

    If people really think that the answer to all of this is to 'beat back Putin, get him overthrown' etc then they need to justify this by reference to what they see happening next. "Embrace the chaos" is an answer that is reckless to the point of being idiotic. Particularly given that nuclear weapons are in play.
    Whilst forward thinking is a good thing in general, I do think this is expecting a bit too much of people. Is it really so unreasonable for people to be overwhelmingly focused on achieving the first step, victory for Ukraine? That, despite excellent news this week, is not exactly guaranteed, certainly not for all parts of Ukraine to be liberated.

    I mean, if I am in a rapidly sinking boat I should still be worried about what direction I am headed, but I'd be a little busy trying to stay afloat to give it much thought.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,211
    edited September 2022

    On monarchy and republic ive vacillated at times but then when i see the grotesque levels of personal enrichment in US politics and in Westminster and elsewhere and the foul stench of corruption i can't be arsed to support another 'elected' trougher pushing more partisan shit.

    It’s the partisanship that worries me the most. If a country becomes too politically polarised, it’s “headship” as an institution itself is at risk of being devalued. Look at the USA: while for many years they seemed to be able to see the presidency both as a political office and a unifying one, in recent years respect for the office itself has crumbled and it is weakening the ties that bind.

    One of the things I have been very grateful for is that we had the monarchy through the Brexit process. The country got so bitterly divided about the whole thing I worry where we’d have ended up with a political head of state.

    I quite like German or Irish idea of electing someone purely to act as a figurehead though the fact they only serve for a fixed term doesn’t help with the feeling of continuity.

    Perhaps really what we should be doing is having an elective monarchy and voting a figurehead in for life, President Attenborough anyone?

    But as with others on here, really I support our system because it’s the least bad, IMHO .
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,360
    @Leon Cordoba, Cadiz and Jerez are all doable as day trips on the train, if you have never been. Cadiz in particular is a gem. Jerez is run down but pleasant. Cordoba mostly just for the Mosque-Cathedral.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    darkage said:

    @DavidL
    That Applebaum article has no answers and no insight to offer on the question of 'what happens next in the event of a Ukraine victory'. She is just suggesting that we should embrace the chaos of a collapsing Russia.

    If people really think that the answer to all of this is to 'beat back Putin, get him overthrown' etc then they need to justify this by reference to what they see happening next. "Embrace the chaos" is an answer that is reckless to the point of being idiotic. Particularly given that nuclear weapons are in play.
    Nuclear weapons are definitely in play for as long as Putin is in power.
    Tickle his tummy and give in or let him know you aren't afraid of him.
    The only choices.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, currently University Challenge is on BBC2 and Coronation Street is on ITV and Motorway Cops on C5 for example

    https://www.tvguide.co.uk/mobile/
    Nice quick edit there. Eastenders is of course on BBC2. I'm pretty sure that there's been nothing but royal programming and news (almost entirely about the royals) on BBC1 for the entire period since Thursday afternoon, save for 8-10pm on Sunday and, just coming up, 9-10pm tonight. Oh, and the occasional weather forecast, I suppose.

    In the modern age you can argue that we have so much choice that one linear TV channel droning on about a single subject pretty much continuously for about twelve solid days (because this isn't going to let up until after the funeral) is no longer a big deal. But you can perhaps understand why some licence fee payers, especially older and more technophobic ones, might get a bit grumpy about having three hundred hours of almost continuous "the Queen is dead, long live the King" pumped out to the almost total exclusion of everything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited September 2022
    pigeon said:

    Nice quick edit there. Eastenders is of course on BBC2. I'm pretty sure that there's been nothing but royal programming and news (almost entirely about the royals) on BBC1 for the entire period since Thursday afternoon, save for 8-10pm on Sunday and, just coming up, 9-10pm tonight. Oh, and the occasional weather forecast, I suppose.

    In the modern age you can argue that we have so much choice that one linear TV channel droning on about a single subject pretty much continuously for about twelve solid days (because this isn't going to let up until after the funeral) is no longer a big deal. But you can perhaps understand why some licence fee payers, especially older and more technophobic ones, might get a bit grumpy about having three hundred hours of almost continuous "the Queen is dead, long live the King" pumped out to the almost total exclusion of everything else.
    The Capture is on BBC1 at 9pm, plus there is BBC2 and BBC4.

    But this is not the 1950s, there are multiple free view channels to watch, including ITV, C4 and C5 plus Amazon Prime plus Netflix plus Internet surfing etc.

    You do not have to just watch BBC1 and if our main national broadcaster did not give full coverage to the death of one of our greatest monarchs after 70 years, who would?
  • Goodnight folks!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,598
    edited September 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    What I like about the Monarchy is that the police and armed forces swear allegiance to the Monarch rather than the the government or a President (although the Monarch can't actually order the army into battle)

    That should, in theory, be a big check against a government or politician becoming a dictator and turning the police and army against it's citizens.

    The Bill Of Rights has just the right balance between the Monarch and Parliament IMO. I think it's a very neat work. The fact we've avoided revolution and unrest (except electorally with Brexit for example) and we haven't had a civil war since the 1640s is testament to that I think.... Though there were times during the 2017 to 2019 parliament that I wondered if we were about to reenact the civil war lol
    We have had civil wars since the 1640s! Repeatedly, to 1746 (and arguably later when you count the Scottish rising in 1820 and Bossenden Wood in 1838). And Ireland.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    carnforth said:

    @Leon Cordoba, Cadiz and Jerez are all doable as day trips on the train, if you have never been. Cadiz in particular is a gem. Jerez is run down but pleasant. Cordoba mostly just for the Mosque-Cathedral.

    +1 for Cordoba. Some superb tiny back-street restaurants as well as the cathederal, which is a must-see - get there when it opens at (8:00 IIRC) to enjoy it on you own.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,641
    kle4 said:

    I'm guessing this did not take place in the Commons? :)

    (Actually I recall you saying Letwin, I think, did so acknowledge once)
    Yes, he did, I'd forgotten that - good man. That makes three.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    Naughty Ishmael!
    I'm just reporting this, not supporting it. I am a camera.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    Goodnight folks!

    Goodnight @Beibheirli_C
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm just reporting this, not supporting it. I am a camera.
    Snap!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Idk, in Russia critics of regime, especially those appealing to moral arguments were traditionally called "demshiza": democrat schizophrenics. Sane, reasonable people accepted regime even if criticising its drawbacks. If you did not accept it at all, they'd question your sanity
    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1569386646931488775
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    pigeon said:

    And the really good news is that there's not enough time left for the Trump Cult to try to worm its way back into power before Putin is beaten. The Russian Army is completely rotten - dying on its feet from the effects of corruption, brutality and incompetence, as much as the damage being inflicted by the Ukrainians. Large parts of it are collapsing, and the Russian state is too knackered to make good its losses.

    The main questions now are how much of Russia's ill-gotten gains can be held onto until Winter, and then whether or not the surviving Russian troops simply freeze to death in their trenches due to extreme neglect.
    What's Ramzan Kadyrov up to? Reports state that he is about to

    * give the Russian defence ministry a damned good talking to

    * resign

    * watch the Chechen "Akhmat" special operations unit give Ukrainian forces an "interesting surprise".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    People have been talking about the altercation between the member of the crowd in Edinburgh, and the protestor.

    I have worked in central London, for quite a long time. Most years we would have violent , anti capitalist demos where, we were told by the protestors, we should expect to be attacked.

    We are told, by some, that having your car tires slashed is just legit anti protest.

    When certain minorities violently protest things they don’t like, often they have been carefully tolerated. The Sikh demo against that play comes to mind - they literally threatened violence and the police protected them and not the theatre.

    Some years after uni, some protestor types I knew were in London for the first, peaceful countryside march. I was interested by their description of being fearful, terrified even.

    While they had masked up to smash shop windows, that was fine. Because it was their side. Suddenly being in the presence of hundreds of thousands of people who didn’t share their worldview was…. inconceivably wrong.

    Violence is always justified when the rocks are flying away from you, i suppose.
  • It most certainly is on most channels and news channels are obsessed with it to the exclusion of everything else

    If you can't see the danger or turn a blind eye to it, or even trumpet it, then do not be surprised if the popularity of the monarchy takes quite a dive
    There are a heck of a lot of people in this country who are upset at the death (even if expected), and the BBC for all its faults are moving the country on to the funeral and beyond. Republicans will always be republicans and will never change their spots. It has made me think of recent and remote deaths in my family, especially my Mum who died when I was a youth. I'm not stupid, I know a 96 yr old was always destined for this. As I said, a lot of people are upset.

    If you aren't good luck to you, but don't expect us all to agree.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-harry-andrew-uniform-queen-vigil-edinburgh-b2165653.html?amp

    Pedo boy gets to wear uniform, Harry not. This is KC humiliating his own son in favour of his trafficky brother because that's what wounded self importance looks like.

    Enough. Arsenic in his Epsom salts, and extra helpings for the Queen fucking Consort. What a monumental fucking shit.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,733
    In the queue in Edinburgh. 12 hours we've been told.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    To include family or not to include family in political ads?

    In this area, there are three women candidates who are getting a lot of ad time, the state's senior senator, Democrat Patty Murray, Democrat Kim Schrier, the incumbent congresswoman in the swing 8th district, and Republican Tiffany Smiley, who is challenging Murray.

    All three women are married (happily as far as I know). Murray has two adult children, Schrier has one child, and Smiley has three young boys.

    You would not know about the Democratic women's families from their ads. Murray and Schrier never mention their husbands or children -- but Smiley's appear in most of her ads. That may be partly because she has a good story. After her husband lost his eyesight from a suicide bomber in Iraq, she had four guys to take care of, one blind, and three quite young. But Murray's and Schrier's missing families in their ads have begun to puzzle me.

    (There is a detail about Dr. Schrier that may interest, for example, Dr. Foxy: In her first campaign, she was accused -- correctly as far as I know -- of refusing to accept Medicaid patients in her pediatric practice. Medicaid, of course, is the US program for poor folks.)
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm just reporting this, not supporting it. I am a camera.
    Let's hope he's a more responsible dog owner than his mother, who according to a number of reports was too lazy to ensure her dogs were properly trained.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Snap!
    I Leica your style.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-harry-andrew-uniform-queen-vigil-edinburgh-b2165653.html?amp

    Pedo boy gets to wear uniform, Harry not. This is KC humiliating his own son in favour of his trafficky brother because that's what wounded self importance looks like.

    Enough. Arsenic in his Epsom salts, and extra helpings for the Queen fucking Consort. What a monumental fucking shit.

    I wouldn't go that far... But I have a feeling all H&M have to do is hang in there a little longer (and make it up with William and Catherine at least superficially) and we'll see sympathy for them rapidly growing as KCIII popularity goes down the toilet...
  • Carnyx said:

    We have had civil wars since the 1640s! Repeatedly, to 1746 (and arguably later when you count the Scottish rising in 1820 and Bossenden Wood in 1838). And Ireland.
    Tanks deployed in Glasgow.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square

    That’ll get Franco Fan’s juices going.
  • @sentdefender
    Ukrainian and Western Intelligence is reporting that Russian Military Command has not recently deployed any additional Battalion Tactical Groups into Ukraine and seems to have suspended all further Combat Deployments into the Country.


    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569392150638460931

    The Ukrainian General Staff are reporting that this is because Russian soldiers are refusing to be deployed to Ukraine. Even in units of volunteers that have been recently formed.

    The Russian War effort is teetering on the brink.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,211
    edited September 2022
    Re the television- if a large chunk of the population was still stuck on the terrestrial 5 channels I’d be less likely to support the BBC dedicating most of the day to this - because I don’t actually think the constant coverage of death and despair is particularly great for peoples psyches.

    You’d have to be made of stern stuff to have gotten through the last 5 days having watched all or most of this - yes it’s a fascinating bit of history but it’s all death and endings and sadness and sorrow. At least with many more channels and online platforms now people can dip in and out of it.

    Luckily as much as some appear to like to protest otherwise it is relatively easy to escape from it all.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,598

    Tanks deployed in Glasgow.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square

    That’ll get Franco Fan’s juices going.
    Quite so. HMG did deploy tanks specifically for the troubles, albeit not using them, and kept a detachment in Glasgow for some time afterwards IIRC. As they did in some other large cities and Ireland.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    HYUFD said:

    The Capture is on BBC1 at 9pm, plus there is BBC2 and BBC4.

    But this is not the 1950s, there are multiple free view channels to watch, including ITV, C4 and C5 plus Amazon Prime plus Netflix plus Internet surfing etc.

    You do not have to just watch BBC1 and if our main national broadcaster did not give full coverage to the death of one of our greatest monarchs after 70 years, who would?
    Could whoever programmed the HYUFD Bot perhaps upgrade the software so that it makes a stab at reading what was written and either ignoring it or responding constructively, rather than auto-generating a couple of pre-drafted paragraphs on the general subject in the manner of an especially dense politician? It would be much less fucking irritating that way. Many thanks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Anyone read this guy ? Sounds interesting.

    One of my favorite novelists died yesterday—and I want to guide other readers to his amazing work. So here is a thread about Javier Marías.

    First, you should learn about how Marías became King of a Caribbean island—just because of a novel he wrote.

    https://twitter.com/tedgioia/status/1569397782699704322
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    ydoethur said:

    Going to present serious difficulties for the Ukrainians though, in terms of feeding and guarding them.
    Put them in camps adjacent to the Ukrainian power grid. Let's see how much of a bastard Putin is....
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Zelensky

    Ukr has regained 6000 sq km in September.

    That’s an area the size of Lincolnshire.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    ping said:

    Zelensky

    Ukr has regained 6000 sq km in September.

    That’s an area the size of Lincolnshire.

    All that blood and treasure...to regain Lincolnshire?
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-harry-andrew-uniform-queen-vigil-edinburgh-b2165653.html?amp

    Pedo boy gets to wear uniform, Harry not. This is KC humiliating his own son in favour of his trafficky brother because that's what wounded self importance looks like.

    Enough. Arsenic in his Epsom salts, and extra helpings for the Queen fucking Consort. What a monumental fucking shit.

    The king won't last long. Harry isn't stupid and he has a backbone. He has matured amazingly since his Nazi uniform idiocy, the Las Vegas business, and Afghanistan. His spoilt toe-rag of a father will never mature.

    What if...just imagine...Harry were to have written a few alternative versions of one of the chapters in his book...and he chooses the one that really gives his father the almighty kick in the b*llocks he deserves and he leaks a copy later this week? Bye-bye kingy. Bye-bye monarchy. Go for it, Harry.

    All the build-up is in one direction. All the other side have got is to print articles saying trillions of admirers are flocking the streets, blah blah. They've got absolutely nothing else - oh, some stuff about the late queen. WTF has she got to do with anything?
This discussion has been closed.