politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the In
I always find it fascinating listening to the reasons and strategies why other people bet the way they do, because if they’re successful, it is will be wise to replicate their approach in the future, if they’re not successful, you know what not to do. Although most of us were betting on a more modest level of stakes. I also found his background and his motivations interesting as well.
Comments
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First again?0
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Top 4 for me.... only time anyone with a Spurs connection will manage such a feat....0
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Next this punter is surely moving to support Rev Oswald against that treacherous "turn-coat Carswell..."0
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So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?0
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Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???0
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He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
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He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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I think you'll find Clueless Unionist Numpty Turnip is the full fat term.TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
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If his plans come to fruition, he can even look forward to sitting next to Neil Hamilton in future too... perhaps that nice david coburn also if he's very good.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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Hasn't it been shortened to winner?Theuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find Clueless Unionist Numpty Turnip is the full fat term.TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
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You Nats aren't taking defeat very well are you.Theuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find Clueless Unionist Numpty Turnip is the full fat term.TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
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David Coburn was the highlight of the indyref result shows.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If his plans come to fruition, he can even look forward to sitting next to Neil Hamilton in future too... perhaps that nice david coburn also if he's very good.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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On topic, I nearly headlined this piece
"Listen to the interview with the man with balls the size of elephants"0 -
If helping Labour win the next election was the main criteria for where people sit in the Commons then Cameron should be sat right next to Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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The last issue of the Clacton Gazette that I saw led on the news that the Labour candidate was trying to get the streetlights turned on again. Essex Co Council have a policy of turning them off late at night and people in Clacton are worried. I didn't think the average Clacton voter got out late at night but there you go.Scrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
No other candidate was mentioned.0 -
How is Douglas Carswell helping Labour any more than a Conservative MP in Clacton would?TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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I don't know why you'd post this. You must know the answer. You must know that everyone else reading it will know the answer tooSocrates said:
How is Douglas Carswell helping Labour any more than a Conservative MP in Clacton would?TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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Let's be honest your judgement on Cameron isn't exactly covered in glory.Richard_Tyndall said:
If helping Labour win the next election was the main criteria for where people sit in the Commons then Cameron should be sat right next to Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Iirc you preferred Patrick Mercer over David Cameron.
Whatever happened to Mercer?
*Innocent Face*0 -
No. Spell it out. Lets see how your strange logic works.Stereotomy said:
I don't know why you'd post this. You must know the answer. You must know that everyone else reading it will know the answer tooSocrates said:
How is Douglas Carswell helping Labour any more than a Conservative MP in Clacton would?TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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I'm amazed he didn't bet on an exchange
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More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.0 -
Um No. I had stopped supporting Mercer before Cameron even became leader. Mercer was a friend before he became MP and I rapidly stopped supporting or helping him before his second term. Try and get your facts straight if you want to smear someone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let's be honest your judgement on Cameron isn't exactly covered in glory.Richard_Tyndall said:
If helping Labour win the next election was the main criteria for where people sit in the Commons then Cameron should be sat right next to Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Iirc you preferred Patrick Mercer over David Cameron.
Whatever happened to Mercer?
*Innocent Face*
Edit. Oh and now perhaps you might like to reply to the point I made. Or is that beyond you? No good for anything but silly quips perhaps?0 -
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.0 -
FPT
With all the discussion about EVEL I thought it would be interesting to see what Ed Miliband has to do to win England. Currently the situation is as follows:
London: 28 Con, 38 Labour, 7 LD
SE: 74 Con, 4 Lab, 3 LD, 1 Green, 1 Indie (Hancock), 1 Speaker
SW: 36 Con, 4 Lab, 15 LD
Eastern: 51 Con, 2 Lab, 4 LD, 1 vacant (Clacton)
E Midlands: 30 Con, 16 Lab
W Midlands: 33 Con, 24 Lab, 2 LD
Yorks: 19 Con, 31 Lab, 3 LD, 1 Respect
NW: 22 Con, 46 Lab, 6 LD, 1 vacant
NE 2 Con, 25 Lab, 2 LD
TOTAL 295 Con, 190 Lab, 42 LD, 1 Green, 1 Indie, 1 Respect, 1 Speaker, 2 Vacant (to compare at the election it was TOTAL 297 Con, 191 Lab, 43 LD, 1 Green, 1 Speaker)
There are 533 seats in England so 267 are needed for a majority.
Con currently have a majority of 28 in England
Looking at Labour target seats on Anthony Wells http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/ and assuming Lab win in Heywood and Middleton:
To win a majority of 1 in the UK, Labour need to gain 68 seats. Seat number 68 on the list above is Norwich North with a majority of 3,901
To win a majority of 1 in England, Labour need to gain 77 seats. Excluding 12 higher placed Welsh and Scottish targets, seat number 89 on the list above is Battersea with a majority of 5,977
Tough but not impossible. Although at the bottom of the list I would say that LD-Lab switchers won't be enough in most seats and some direct Lab-Con switchers will also be needed (or very high UKIP-Con)
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Seriously, read Socrates' post again, and imagine you were being paid £100 to rebut it as effectively as possible. Now close your eyes, really try to get into character, and think what you'd write, before you read on.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. Spell it out. Lets see how your strange logic works.Stereotomy said:
I don't know why you'd post this. You must know the answer. You must know that everyone else reading it will know the answer tooSocrates said:
How is Douglas Carswell helping Labour any more than a Conservative MP in Clacton would?TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
So what did you decide? Was it something like "First, that's an extremely obvious strawman, he said that UKIP was helping Labour, not that Carswell specifically was helping Labour. Second, since there's been a strong pattern of UKIP taking more votes from the Conservatives than Labour, anything giving UKIP additional exposure and viability is likely to split the Conservatives' vote more than it does Labour's, which in an FPTP system will help Labour get more seats where UKIP doesn't win"?0 -
Good news for Leftys....Basil is still struggling with the goalposts.0
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I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said, in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is viewed to voters and members alike as political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.0 -
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.Stereotomy said:
Seriously, read Socrates' post again, and imagine you were being paid £100 to rebut it as effectively as possible. Now close your eyes, really try to get into character, and think what you'd write, before you read on.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. Spell it out. Lets see how your strange logic works.Stereotomy said:
I don't know why you'd post this. You must know the answer. You must know that everyone else reading it will know the answer tooSocrates said:
How is Douglas Carswell helping Labour any more than a Conservative MP in Clacton would?TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
So what did you decide? Was it something like "First, that's an extremely obvious strawman, he said that UKIP was helping Labour, not that Carswell specifically was helping Labour. Second, since there's been a strong pattern of UKIP taking more votes from the Conservatives than Labour, anything giving UKIP additional exposure and viability is likely to split the Conservatives' vote more than it does Labour's, which in an FPTP system will help Labour get more seats where UKIP doesn't win"?
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.0 -
***BETTING POST***
Aka rocking horse shit
I said on the last thread, ukip to get over five seats is available to lay for £800 at less than 5/2 on betfair
Ladbrokes are 5/2 five or more
So a better price, and less seats to get in order to win
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Let the scapegoating commence. It reminds me of what happened to wee Dougie Alexander.compouter2 said:
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is to voters and members alike, political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.0 -
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things I have heard that Danczuks office did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
Gordon Brown?Scrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
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Indeed mad as a box of Frogs but fair dos to UKIP for having an openly Gay candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:
David Coburn was the highlight of the indyref result shows.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If his plans come to fruition, he can even look forward to sitting next to Neil Hamilton in future too... perhaps that nice david coburn also if he's very good.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Hopes False Flag doesnt make him marry his Cat0 -
Was no-one there just because they were in the confernce hall a few miles down the road? As far as 'big lauches' go it would appear to be odd timing to say the least.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things that Danczuk did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
My friend tells me they are even struggling to bus people in from the conference to help, such is Danczuks popularity in the party.Lennon said:
Was no-one there just because they were in the confernce hall a few miles down the road? As far as 'big lauches' go it would appear to be odd timing to say the least.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things that Danczuk did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be
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"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!0 -
TSE never makes stupid comments.
Old Trafford Test draws nailed on excepted.0 -
Example House worth £3m. Owner splits the property into two flats, 1 owned by him the other by his wife. £10,000 saved in first year funds the legal work etc. But some extra council tax of approx £2,000 per extra property.NickPalmer said:
Quite a few (70,000 according to the LibDems), which is why the IFS thought it would raise £1.7bn/year when the LibDems floated it, though we'll need to see details here to value it accurately. Obviously it's not enough to address all that needs to be done on its own, but it's a useful start. The Tory equivalent appears to be some more benefit cuts.dr_spyn said:How many houses are worth £ 2million?
Futile gesture politics rules.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29318856
Of course it can be avoided if you decide to give away half your £3 million home to save £10,000. I wouldn't, and doubt if many would.
Through these measures and others the number of properties worth £2m plus now down to 7,000. mansion tax raised now overall < £250m.
Market at top end also plummets and properties worth less.... Some rich folk also re-locate in view of the socialist Govt that has moved in. The lost income tax and spending taxes etc > £2bn per year. Its called the Hollande tax effect.0 -
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!0 -
Danczuk is less popular than Tony Blair with Lab activists IMO0
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Apologies, I thought you had criticised Cameron a lot and defended Mercer when Mercer first resigned in circa 2007. Again apologies if that is not the case, my memory can be faulty at times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Um No. I had stopped supporting Mercer before Cameron even became leader. Mercer was a friend before he became MP and I rapidly stopped supporting or helping him before his second term. Try and get your facts straight if you want to smear someone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let's be honest your judgement on Cameron isn't exactly covered in glory.Richard_Tyndall said:
If helping Labour win the next election was the main criteria for where people sit in the Commons then Cameron should be sat right next to Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Iirc you preferred Patrick Mercer over David Cameron.
Whatever happened to Mercer?
*Innocent Face*
Edit. Oh and now perhaps you might like to reply to the point I made. Or is that beyond you? No good for anything but silly quips perhaps?
On the substantive point, do you think defecting to UKIP, and forcing a by-election a week after the Tory conference, when the Tories wanted the focus to be solely on the economy and Labour's lack of a referendum helps the Tories and hinders Labour?
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I could make a very childish joke involving another name for Cats, but I need to write the morning thread.bigjohnowls said:
Indeed mad as a box of Frogs but fair dos to UKIP for having an openly Gay candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:
David Coburn was the highlight of the indyref result shows.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If his plans come to fruition, he can even look forward to sitting next to Neil Hamilton in future too... perhaps that nice david coburn also if he's very good.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Hopes False Flag doesnt make him marry his Cat0 -
Hey, I thought you liked puerile abuse.TheScreamingEagles said:
You Nats aren't taking defeat very well are you.Theuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find Clueless Unionist Numpty Turnip is the full fat term.TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
In any case we always look to Tories as the gold standard of how to take defeat.
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I wonder why?bigjohnowls said:Danczuk is less popular than Tony Blair with Lab activists IMO
Politics imported from Pakistan fuelled sex abuse cover up by Simon Danczuk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11066646/Rotherham-politics-imported-from-Pakistan-fuelled-sex-abuse-cover-up-MP.html
Even our police are blinded by liberal dogma by Simon Danczuk
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736219/Even-police-blinded-liberal-dogma-writes-SIMON-DANCZUK.html
Heads must roll over Rotherham abuse scandal by Simon Danczuk
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/103720/simon_danczuk_heads_must_roll_over_rotherham_abuse_scandal.html0 -
Coburn wasn't quite so openly gay before the Euros.bigjohnowls said:
Indeed mad as a box of Frogs but fair dos to UKIP for having an openly Gay candidate.TheScreamingEagles said:
David Coburn was the highlight of the indyref result shows.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If his plans come to fruition, he can even look forward to sitting next to Neil Hamilton in future too... perhaps that nice david coburn also if he's very good.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Hopes False Flag doesnt make him marry his Cat
He's against gay marriage because it encourages homophobia (not sure of his position on cat marrying).0 -
PfP suggested on Friday that we should watch the polls to see the effect of the EV4EL push. OK, watching them... Labour lead up in both Ashcroft and Populus. Odd - one might almost think it wasn't a big vote-winner after all? I wrote a long constituency blog about the pros and cons, and unusually had only two replies, both of them low-key.
On the Newark argument on the last thread - I was talking to someone here who was heavily involved in that by-election, and he said both sides were right. The Tories were attracting a good many potential Labour anti-UKIP switchers, but in the final days a poll appeared which showed the Tories winning anyway, and they think the switchers mostly, though not all, then reverted. I've no idea whether he's right, and I'm a bit dubious whether a poll would really change that many minds, but he didn't have any apparent reason to make it up.0 -
But this is such a strange way of saying it. What you mean, surely, is something like: "UKIP is helping Labour, but Cameron & co only have themselves to blame". Is that really such a horrifying phrase that you can't bring yourself to write it? Why go through these bizarre linguistic contortions to avoid just saying what you mean. This isn't Newsnight, nobody's going to quote you out of context and put it on the front page of the Times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
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So if Danczuk is that unpopular, what do you think will happen in Rochdale next May?compouter2 said:
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said, in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is viewed to voters and members alike as political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
Last time round was Lab 36%, LD 34%, Con 18%, National Front 5%, UKIP 4%, Islam Zinda Baad 1%, Indie 1%0 -
I didn't think Mercer should have had to resign for what he said and probably said so but that was a matter of principle on here. By that time we had completely fallen out over local issues and were not on speaking terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
Apologies, I thought you had criticised Cameron a lot and defended Mercer when Mercer first resigned in circa 2007. Again apologies if that is not the case, my memory can be faulty at times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Um No. I had stopped supporting Mercer before Cameron even became leader. Mercer was a friend before he became MP and I rapidly stopped supporting or helping him before his second term. Try and get your facts straight if you want to smear someone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let's be honest your judgement on Cameron isn't exactly covered in glory.Richard_Tyndall said:
If helping Labour win the next election was the main criteria for where people sit in the Commons then Cameron should be sat right next to Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Iirc you preferred Patrick Mercer over David Cameron.
Whatever happened to Mercer?
*Innocent Face*
Edit. Oh and now perhaps you might like to reply to the point I made. Or is that beyond you? No good for anything but silly quips perhaps?
On the substantive point, do you think defecting to UKIP, and forcing a by-election a week after the Tory conference, when the Tories wanted the focus to be solely on the economy and Labour's lack of a referendum helps the Tories and hinders Labour?
I think at any time Carswell's defection would have been greeted with exactly the same reaction and that the Tories like yourself would have found some reason why it was a terrible time to have done it. In the end he was right to defect and also to resign his seat and fight the by-election.
As I have already said the real person helping Labour is Cameron. As long as he alienates so much of his natural support he is bound to struggle even against an opposition as poor as the current one.0 -
Hilarious stuff again from TSETheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
0 -
I prefer smut and innuendo.Theuniondivvie said:
Hey, I thought you liked puerile abuse.TheScreamingEagles said:
You Nats aren't taking defeat very well are you.Theuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find Clueless Unionist Numpty Turnip is the full fat term.TheScreamingEagles said:
He is a Clueless Wonder Turnip Unionist with no knowledge of the Yes ground game.Artist said:So basically he wanted No to win and looked at the polls?
In any case we always look to Tories as the gold standard of how to take defeat.
When it comes to defeat my comments will reference history, as it always does.
Perhaps I'll do a thread comparing David Cameron to Edward Longshanks, although Cameron, unlike old Longshanks hasn't yet managed to civilise the Welsh.0 -
Because it is not true. Do you really think those who have abandoned Cameron would stay even if UKIP did not exist. They would simply find another party to support or not bother to vote. There are plenty of small parties out there who would welcome the people Cameron has alienated.Stereotomy said:
But this is such a strange way of saying it. What you mean, surely, is something like: "UKIP is helping Labour, but Cameron & co only have themselves to blame". Is that really such a horrifying phrase that you can't bring yourself to write it? Why go through these bizarre linguistic contortions to avoid just saying what you mean. This isn't Newsnight, nobody's going to quote you out of context and put it on the front page of the Times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
Just be grateful Labour has not yet offered a referendum on EU membership. If that happens then UKIP will be the least of your worries.0 -
How on earth can Cameron be helping Labour when Cameron is way, way, way more popular than the Conservative Party?Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
To the extent that leaders influence voting intention, Cameron is significantly pulling up Conservative support that would be way, way, way lower without him.
0 -
I reckon the mystery punter is a PBer. Just a hunch.0
-
He seems pretty popular in Rochdale, so I assume he will win. If he doesn't defect first.Garethofthevale said:
So if Danczuk is that unpopular, what do you think will happen in Rochdale next May?compouter2 said:
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said, in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is viewed to voters and members alike as political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
Last time round was Lab 36%, LD 34%, Con 18%, National Front 5%, UKIP 4%, Islam Zinda Baad 1%, Indie 1%0 -
He has driven away a large amount of support from the right and has clearly not replaced it from the centre and left.MikeL said:
How on earth can Cameron be helping Labour when Cameron is way, way, way more popular than the Conservative Party?Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
To the extent that leaders influence voting intention, Cameron is significantly pulling up Conservative support that would be way, way, way lower without him.0 -
As I said earlier, if it is true what it is said what he and his office did to Jim Dobbin, you would realise why he is so unpopular in Heywood and Middleton, both voter and Labour member.isam said:
I wonder why?bigjohnowls said:Danczuk is less popular than Tony Blair with Lab activists IMO
Politics imported from Pakistan fuelled sex abuse cover up by Simon Danczuk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11066646/Rotherham-politics-imported-from-Pakistan-fuelled-sex-abuse-cover-up-MP.html
Even our police are blinded by liberal dogma by Simon Danczuk
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736219/Even-police-blinded-liberal-dogma-writes-SIMON-DANCZUK.html
Heads must roll over Rotherham abuse scandal by Simon Danczuk
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/103720/simon_danczuk_heads_must_roll_over_rotherham_abuse_scandal.html0 -
I would be surprised if someone betting so much never dropped by to get a sight of the MCARSE...AndyJS said:I reckon the mystery punter is a PBer. Just a hunch.
0 -
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 27s
Some in Lab cling to 'not for foreseeable future' line on UK + euro. But Balls notably firm today: "I'd never join the euro"0 -
TSE is full of original thoughts.nigel4england said:
Hilarious stuff again from TSETheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
0 -
Fckn hell, dobber alert.
Andrew Picken @andrewpicken1 26 mins
Labour MP Simon Danczuk: “How do you explain to people in Rochdale that they are subsidising people in Raith?” Dancing. Streets. etc
Still, some of London Labour seem to know what's happening in SLABland.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 28 mins
Margaret Hodge: "Scottish Labour Party have just stopped talking to people."0 -
Nothing will ever top your hilarious suggestion that the EDL are the voice of reason.nigel4england said:
Hilarious stuff again from TSETheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Edit: Or your suggestion to me, that as a Muslim I should choose which side I am.0 -
No, that's not right because a "traditional Conservative Party" per Howard / IDS can only win approx 200 seats.Richard_Tyndall said:He has driven away a large amount of support from the right and has clearly not replaced it from the centre and left.
A Cameron led Conservative Party wins far more.
That's not to say a Cameron led Conservative Party won't lose - the odds are that it will. But it will perform far better than a "traditional Conservative Party".
You are confusing what you personally want with what the electorate wants.
You don't have to trust me - ask the head of any major polling company and they will all say the same thing.
The Conservatives best chance of winning is to be led by Cameron with everyone on the right-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Just as Labour performed best (by miles) led by Blair with everyone on the left-wing of the Party keeping shut up.0 -
Where on earth would he "defect" to? Apart from Indie?compouter2 said:
He seems pretty popular in Rochdale, so I assume he will win. If he doesn't defect first.Garethofthevale said:
So if Danczuk is that unpopular, what do you think will happen in Rochdale next May?compouter2 said:
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said, in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is viewed to voters and members alike as political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
Last time round was Lab 36%, LD 34%, Con 18%, National Front 5%, UKIP 4%, Islam Zinda Baad 1%, Indie 1%0 -
Neil Hamilton @NeilUKIP 21 Sep 2013
My Conference Speech! This really is just the beginning for #UKIP. Let's go forward to victory #UKIPConf http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnsm-2leR1w …0 -
I'm not a Tory voter, and I'm not really trying to make a political point. I just get very frustrated by the bizarre rules people seem to play by when talking about politics. One of which is that whether a statement is factually true matters much less than what its code for. Like "UKIP is taking votes from Conservatives" is code for "UKIP BAD!", to such an extent that even Kippers who agree with it can't bring themselves to respond with "Yes, but...", and instead respond with "No!".Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it is not true. Do you really think those who have abandoned Cameron would stay even if UKIP did not exist. They would simply find another party to support or not bother to vote. There are plenty of small parties out there who would welcome the people Cameron has alienated.
Just be grateful Labour has not yet offered a referendum on EU membership. If that happens then UKIP will be the least of your worries.
But it's certainly not a UKIP-specific thing, just happened to be the example that annoyed me enough this time around0 -
The person did the same as I did a little research.I played on 40-45 and stuck,because of the information from Quebec.It is very different I know but I would never dream of backing a horse without looking at the stable form,for example.The danger of good ol cognitive dissonance comes into play,a Unionist backing the Unionists.I learnt early on never to back your own football team.Nerves of steel but it was never in doubt the moment Gordon Brown entered the fray.The punter has Gordon to thank.Well done that man.0
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I can't speak for ex Tories, but I am an ex labour voter (strictly speaking I guess I am a current labour voter as I voted for them in 2010) and if ukip didn't exist, I just wouldn't voteRichard_Tyndall said:
Because it is not true. Do you really think those who have abandoned Cameron would stay even if UKIP did not exist. They would simply find another party to support or not bother to vote. There are plenty of small parties out there who would welcome the people Cameron has alienated.Stereotomy said:
But this is such a strange way of saying it. What you mean, surely, is something like: "UKIP is helping Labour, but Cameron & co only have themselves to blame". Is that really such a horrifying phrase that you can't bring yourself to write it? Why go through these bizarre linguistic contortions to avoid just saying what you mean. This isn't Newsnight, nobody's going to quote you out of context and put it on the front page of the Times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
Just be grateful Labour has not yet offered a referendum on EU membership. If that happens then UKIP will be the least of your worries.
Then again ex labour kippers don't seem to get as much stick as ex Tories
@compouter2 I said a while ago I thought Danczuk may defect to ukip... He writes for breitbart for one thing!0 -
But Raith's ground is in Pratt Street., I guess he will be looking for the small town of Albion on a Scottish map next.Theuniondivvie said:Fckn hell, dobber alert.
Andrew Picken @andrewpicken1 26 mins
Labour MP Simon Danczuk: “How do you explain to people in Rochdale that they are subsidising people in Raith?” Dancing. Streets. etc
Still, some of London Labour seem to know what's happening in SLABland.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 28 mins
Margaret Hodge: "Scottish Labour Party have just stopped talking to people."
0 -
Britain Elects: We understand polling for Heywood and Middleton has been conducted. Polling company/person unknown. Release date unknown.0
-
I understand your point but repeat, it is not UKIP taking votes from the Tories. It is the Tories throwing away those votes and them then finding another place to sit. I believe this because it is exactly the same journey I took. Whether UKIP had existed or not I would not have voted for Cameron. He simply does not reflect my beliefs or values in some crucial areas - particularly to do with the EU but also in others - and I also believe him to be thoroughly dishonest.Stereotomy said:
I'm not a Tory voter, and I'm not really trying to make a political point. I just get very frustrated by the bizarre rules people seem to play by when talking about politics. One of which is that whether a statement is factually true matters much less than what its code for. Like "UKIP is taking votes from Conservatives" is code for "UKIP BAD!", to such an extent that even Kippers who agree with it can't bring themselves to respond with "Yes, but...", and instead respond with "No!".Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it is not true. Do you really think those who have abandoned Cameron would stay even if UKIP did not exist. They would simply find another party to support or not bother to vote. There are plenty of small parties out there who would welcome the people Cameron has alienated.
Just be grateful Labour has not yet offered a referendum on EU membership. If that happens then UKIP will be the least of your worries.
But it's certainly not a UKIP-specific thing, just happened to be the example that annoyed me enough this time around
I am not wedded to UKIP at all. I have said on here often enough that I dislike all parties and I am kind of hanging on by my fingernails as far as the socially anti-liberal direction of travel UKIP is taking at the moment. Under a different leader and with different policies I may well return to the Tories. But not now and not with Cameron in charge.0 -
Fascinating. Thanks, TSE.0
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Right, I don't really agree but it's a coherent point of view, so I guess I was wrong to assume you were avoiding saying that UKIP was helping Labour just because you didn't like to say the phrase.Richard_Tyndall said:
I understand your point but repeat, it is not UKIP taking votes from the Tories. It is the Tories throwing away those votes and them then finding another place to sit. I believe this because it is exactly the same journey I took. Whether UKIP had existed or not I would not have voted for Cameron. He simply does not reflect my beliefs or values in some crucial areas - particularly to do with the EU but also in others - and I also believe him to be thoroughly dishonest.Stereotomy said:
I'm not a Tory voter, and I'm not really trying to make a political point. I just get very frustrated by the bizarre rules people seem to play by when talking about politics. One of which is that whether a statement is factually true matters much less than what its code for. Like "UKIP is taking votes from Conservatives" is code for "UKIP BAD!", to such an extent that even Kippers who agree with it can't bring themselves to respond with "Yes, but...", and instead respond with "No!".Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it is not true. Do you really think those who have abandoned Cameron would stay even if UKIP did not exist. They would simply find another party to support or not bother to vote. There are plenty of small parties out there who would welcome the people Cameron has alienated.
Just be grateful Labour has not yet offered a referendum on EU membership. If that happens then UKIP will be the least of your worries.
But it's certainly not a UKIP-specific thing, just happened to be the example that annoyed me enough this time around
I am not wedded to UKIP at all. I have said on here often enough that I dislike all parties and I am kind of hanging on by my fingernails as far as the socially anti-liberal direction of travel UKIP is taking at the moment. Under a different leader and with different policies I may well return to the Tories. But not now and not with Cameron in charge.0 -
We will found out how good the info I was given was soon I assume.chestnut said:Britain Elects: We understand polling for Heywood and Middleton has been conducted. Polling company/person unknown. Release date unknown.
0 -
The comparison with IDS and Howard is always a false one. They were standing against Blair and still suffering from the hangover from the Major Government economically (whether that is fair or not)MikeL said:
No, that's not right because a "traditional Conservative Party" per Howard / IDS can only win approx 200 seats.Richard_Tyndall said:He has driven away a large amount of support from the right and has clearly not replaced it from the centre and left.
A Cameron led Conservative Party wins far more.
That's not to say a Cameron led Conservative Party won't lose - the odds are that it will. But it will perform far better than a "traditional Conservative Party".
You are confusing what you personally want with what the electorate wants.
You don't have to trust me - ask the head of any major polling company and they will all say the same thing.
The Conservatives best chance of winning is to be led by Cameron with everyone on the right-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Just as Labour performed best (by miles) led by Blair with everyone on the left-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Cameron was facing one of the most unpopular government's in history which had presided over the greatest economic crash in several lifetimes. He still failed to win a majority.
The move to the centre and castigation of many of his own supporters - he didn't just let them go, he actively drove them out - cost Cameron his majority in 2010. He has learnt nothing since then.
0 -
A J ELDER-BROWN UKIP @theblindblogger 3h
Conservative Party stalwart and Tewkesbury ex-Mayor defects to UKIP.
@UKIP #UKIP
http://www.gloucestershireecho.co.uk/Conservative-Graham-Dawson-defects-UKIP/story-22963198-detail/story.html#ixzz3E45YmVE1 …0 -
He apparently had initial talks with UKIP a few months back, but then attacked them a few weeks ago for UKIP talking about Asian rape gangs. I assume he thinks that's his topic and no one else should be allowed to even mention them. It was quite an attack so may have burned his bridges.isam said:
I can't speak for ex Tories, but I am an ex labour voter (strictly speaking I guess I am a current labour voter as I voted for them in 2010) and if ukip didn't exist, I just wouldn't voteRichard_Tyndall said:Stereotomy said:
But this is such a strange way of saying it. What you mean, surely, is something like: "UKIP is helping Labour, but Cameron & co only have themselves to blame". Is that really such a horrifying phrase that you can't bring yourself to write it? Why go through these bizarre linguistic contortions to avoid just saying what you mean. This isn't Newsnight, nobody's going to quote you out of context and put it on the front page of the Times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
Then again ex labour kippers don't seem to get as much stick as ex Tories
@compouter2 I said a while ago I thought Danczuk may defect to ukip... He writes for breitbart for one thing!0 -
Little Ed's latest tax the rich to fund the English NHS concept will only get through if Labour Scottish & Welsh MP's vote for it with the current system. Won't happen with EV4EL
0 -
When did I say that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nothing will ever top your hilarious suggestion that the EDL are the voice of reason.nigel4england said:
Hilarious stuff again from TSETheScreamingEagles said:
He'll be sat on the same side as Labour, which is fitting given how UKIP are helping LabourScrapheap_as_was said:Assuming Turn-coat does win in Clacton, where will he sit in the HofC - who next to???
Edit: Or your suggestion to me, that as a Muslim I should choose which side I am.0 -
Up until a few weeks ago I would say UKIP as he had already had talks with them, but he attacked them over Asian rape gangs, so may have burned his bridges. I wouldn't put it passed him joining the Tory Party after the next election under a different leader.OldKingCole said:
Where on earth would he "defect" to? Apart from Indie?compouter2 said:
He seems pretty popular in Rochdale, so I assume he will win. If he doesn't defect first.Garethofthevale said:
So if Danczuk is that unpopular, what do you think will happen in Rochdale next May?compouter2 said:
More to do with the fact Danczuk and his friends are running the campaign. As my friend in Bury said, in Middleton and Heywood Danczuk is viewed to voters and members alike as political thrush.saddened said:
It's almost as if they feel some guilt.compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
Last time round was Lab 36%, LD 34%, Con 18%, National Front 5%, UKIP 4%, Islam Zinda Baad 1%, Indie 1%0 -
@MikeL
"Cameron is significantly pulling up Conservative support that would be way, way, way lower without him."
Would it? Would it really? I am far from convinced.
He is apparently more popular than his party according to some polls but how much does that actually affect voting intention (Miliband is less popular than his but Labour is still ahead in the polls). I suspect that the Conservatives are are close to their core vote and it doesn't matter who is in charge of them, the tribalists are always going to vote for their tribe. Unless that tribe's leader goes out of his way to piss them off and that, perhaps, has been Cameron's biggest contribution to the Conservative Party - he has shrunk the tribe.
Mind you, nobody should take me seriously when I talk about Cameron as I am not an objective observer. I can't stand the fellow and never could. Smug, shallow, ignorant and lazy were my first impressions and he hasn't done anything to change my mind.0 -
"How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/0 -
Well don't leave us hanging, man, give us the details.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things I have heard that Danczuks office did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be
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No, loads of people in Labour have disliked him a lot longer than that. He says lots of Tory garbage on welfare for a start.isam said:
I wonder why?bigjohnowls said:Danczuk is less popular than Tony Blair with Lab activists IMO
Politics imported from Pakistan fuelled sex abuse cover up by Simon Danczuk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11066646/Rotherham-politics-imported-from-Pakistan-fuelled-sex-abuse-cover-up-MP.html
Even our police are blinded by liberal dogma by Simon Danczuk
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736219/Even-police-blinded-liberal-dogma-writes-SIMON-DANCZUK.html
Heads must roll over Rotherham abuse scandal by Simon Danczuk
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/103720/simon_danczuk_heads_must_roll_over_rotherham_abuse_scandal.html0 -
YouGov sees the first EV4EL bounce for the Tories
LAB - 35% (-1)
CON - 33% (+2)
UKIP - 14% (-2)
LDEM - 7% (=)
GRN - 5% (=)0 -
Sounds sensible, the trouble is the Labour party is not prepared to hear what the people Mssrs Denahm and Dugher have been talking to want to say. That is why UKIP is growing.isam said:"How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/0 -
Second two gap in three on Yougov.
Populus same as last Monday.
Ashcroft bouncing around like a kangaroo on speed as usual.0 -
People with passionate views always think the policies they personally support are winning policies.Richard_Tyndall said:
The comparison with IDS and Howard is always a false one. They were standing against Blair and still suffering from the hangover from the Major Government economically (whether that is fair or not)MikeL said:
No, that's not right because a "traditional Conservative Party" per Howard / IDS can only win approx 200 seats.Richard_Tyndall said:He has driven away a large amount of support from the right and has clearly not replaced it from the centre and left.
A Cameron led Conservative Party wins far more.
That's not to say a Cameron led Conservative Party won't lose - the odds are that it will. But it will perform far better than a "traditional Conservative Party".
You are confusing what you personally want with what the electorate wants.
You don't have to trust me - ask the head of any major polling company and they will all say the same thing.
The Conservatives best chance of winning is to be led by Cameron with everyone on the right-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Just as Labour performed best (by miles) led by Blair with everyone on the left-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Cameron was facing one of the most unpopular government's in history which had presided over the greatest economic crash in several lifetimes. He still failed to win a majority.
The move to the centre and castigation of many of his own supporters - he didn't just let them go, he actively drove them out - cost Cameron his majority in 2010. He has learnt nothing since then.
It has always been thus.0 -
Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!0 -
Not really. I recognise that my views on most things are deeply unpopular amongst the great unwashed. Doesn't stop me being utterly certain that I am right about pretty much everything, though.MikeL said:
People with passionate views always think the policies they personally support are winning policies.Richard_Tyndall said:
The comparison with IDS and Howard is always a false one. They were standing against Blair and still suffering from the hangover from the Major Government economically (whether that is fair or not)MikeL said:
No, that's not right because a "traditional Conservative Party" per Howard / IDS can only win approx 200 seats.Richard_Tyndall said:He has driven away a large amount of support from the right and has clearly not replaced it from the centre and left.
A Cameron led Conservative Party wins far more.
That's not to say a Cameron led Conservative Party won't lose - the odds are that it will. But it will perform far better than a "traditional Conservative Party".
You are confusing what you personally want with what the electorate wants.
You don't have to trust me - ask the head of any major polling company and they will all say the same thing.
The Conservatives best chance of winning is to be led by Cameron with everyone on the right-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Just as Labour performed best (by miles) led by Blair with everyone on the left-wing of the Party keeping shut up.
Cameron was facing one of the most unpopular government's in history which had presided over the greatest economic crash in several lifetimes. He still failed to win a majority.
The move to the centre and castigation of many of his own supporters - he didn't just let them go, he actively drove them out - cost Cameron his majority in 2010. He has learnt nothing since then.
It has always been thus.0 -
Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.Flightpath said:
Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.Richard_Tyndall said:
Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.Stereotomy said:
"which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.
And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.
Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.
Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?
As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!
But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!0 -
If I did post them I would be banned immediately and he would most probably send for the lawyers. Let us put it this way, I am told Dobbins family barred him from the funeral, which is quite strange considering he is the MP in the next constituency. It must be widely known as my friend who told me lives the other side of Bury and she said most people in their local party know about it.Gaius said:
Well don't leave us hanging, man, give us the details.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things I have heard that Danczuks office did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
Private Eye has reported on one or two very very substantial rows in Rochdale Labour Party.compouter2 said:
If I did post them I would be banned immediately and he would most probably send for the lawyers. Let us put it this way, I am told Dobbins family barred him from the funeral, which is quite strange considering he is the MP in the next constituency. It must be widely known as my friend who told me lives the other side of Bury and she said most people in their local party know about it.Gaius said:
Well don't leave us hanging, man, give us the details.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things I have heard that Danczuks office did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
I am amazed they didn't pick up on these then. The one I have been told Dobbin reported back to his local party meeting makes you wonder about the morals of Danczuk and his office. It is stunningly bad.OldKingCole said:
Private Eye has reported on one or two very very substantial rows in Rochdale Labour Party.compouter2 said:
If I did post them I would be banned immediately and he would most probably send for the lawyers. Let us put it this way, I am told Dobbins family barred him from the funeral, which is quite strange considering he is the MP in the next constituency. It must be widely known as my friend who told me lives the other side of Bury and she said most people in their local party know about it.Gaius said:
Well don't leave us hanging, man, give us the details.compouter2 said:
I don't bet and don't particularly like posting what I am posting, but them there are the facts. The "Big Launch" of Liz McInnis campaign was today. Try and find a picture of it anywhere on the internet, I cannot. Something to do with the fact no one was there. Some of the things I have heard that Danczuks office did to Dobbin were horrific.isam said:
I hope you're not ramping! I have laid them at 1.09 for a few quid today (although I would have done anyway, your info gave me the final push)compouter2 said:More bad new for Leftys from Heywood and Middleton. Some idiot has placed the Labour Campaign office two doors down from one of the take aways where the kids who were abused took place and opposite the other take away where it happened. The launch today was apparently a disaster with hardly any of the local party in attendance.
Weigh in on Purple before the price drops.
To be fair I think the people queing up to take 1/10 on Labour think they're getting value because the only form up are 1/14... A lot of money on betfair is people looking at oddschecker and trying to nick a tick without knowing what the real price should be0 -
@dizzy_thinks: English taxes for Scottish votes.... That's what our Dear @Ed_Miliband supports0
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Sounds like the Tories don't think they can win a majority in a UK parliament and want to set up a separate English parliament. If this is their policy, perhaps they should ask English voters in a referendum.0
