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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534



    Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.

    And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.

    Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Why would he say that if he meant "which is fitting given how he personally is helping Labour"?

    As for the second and third paragraphs: ah! Well now we actually seem to be in agreement. We both agree that UKIP is helping Labour. It's just that you don't see that as a reason not to support UKIP, and you believe that UKIP is a problem of the Tories' own making. Fine, that's a stance I can respect!

    But Socrates' question was "how Carswell is helping Labour". And since you and I presumably agree that Carswell- by giving UKIP exposure and the sense of viability- IS helping UKIP, and since we apparently agree that UKIP- by splitting Conservative votes- IS helping Labour, it seems that you and I should also agree that the answer to Socrates' question is extremely obvious!
    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Philip Thompson's comments, on the previous thread, give us the Cameroon world outlook.

    Right wing voters are supposed to display complete loyalty to the Conservative Party, and they are supposed to owe us nothing in return.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548



    Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.

    And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.

    Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    I would be quite happy if a few more like Roger Helmer, Neil Hamilton and Douglas Carswell left the Conservatives for UKIP.

    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.

    I am no Cameron fan, though he was preferably to the maverick David Davis in the last leadership election, but he has led a coalition together through very difficult times. His judgement on some things like gay marriage, has been correct.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Sean_F said:

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Philip Thompson's comments, on the previous thread, give us the Cameroon world outlook.

    Right wing voters are supposed to display complete loyalty to the Conservative Party, and they are supposed to owe us nothing in return.
    Economists are often accused of fitting the people to the model, rather than fitting the model to the people.

    That seems to Cameron's modus operandi.

    Surprise! Surprise! It's failing horrendously.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    hucks67 said:

    Sounds like the Tories don't think they can win a majority in a UK parliament and want to set up a separate English parliament. If this is their policy, perhaps they should ask English voters in a referendum.

    There can't be many Tories who actually believe a majority is possible. A referendum did occur to me as a thought.

    I suspect that referendums will become more common.

    There are so many confrontational policies that could be diluted, dumped or legitimised if voted on in referendums.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534



    Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.

    And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.

    Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    I would be quite happy if a few more like Roger Helmer, Neil Hamilton and Douglas Carswell left the Conservatives for UKIP.

    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.

    I am no Cameron fan, though he was preferably to the maverick David Davis in the last leadership election, but he has led a coalition together through very difficult times. His judgement on some things like gay marriage, has been correct.
    If you define "success" as losing people who might otherwise vote for you.

    Come to think of it, the Lib Dems have been very successful, by that measure.

  • isam said:

    Sky News (@SkyNews)
    22/09/2014 21:42
    DAILY EXPRESS FRONT PAGE: "Inheritance tax will be abolished" #skypapers pic.twitter.com/KjEIsJPoqz

    If that is a true UKIP policy, then I think that is a big mistake. Can't see it going down well in northern targets like Grimsby and the people most likely to benefit are in London which is one of UKIP's weakest regions.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MikeK said:
    So the Flounce lasted less than 24 hrs.. Some kind of a record that.

    The UKIP headline is a joke, no one sensible pays inheritance tax, only the stupid who do not organise their affairs properly.

    NO Chancellor will get a bean of my money, not a single penny.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Sky News (@SkyNews)
    22/09/2014 21:42
    DAILY EXPRESS FRONT PAGE: "Inheritance tax will be abolished" #skypapers pic.twitter.com/KjEIsJPoqz

    If that is a true UKIP policy, then I think that is a big mistake. Can't see it going down well in northern targets like Grimsby and the people most likely to benefit are in London which is one of UKIP's weakest regions.
    My own policy would be to defer it for a generation... But none of my family are going to be affected by any of this and I'm not too bothered one way or the other about it really
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    "How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/

    What do the Spectator think the answer is?

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    YouGov sees the first EV4EL bounce for the Tories

    LAB - 35% (-1)
    CON - 33% (+2)
    UKIP - 14% (-2)
    LDEM - 7% (=)
    GRN - 5% (=)

    Bloody Hell yes looks like it doesnt it I think Ed should abbandon all hope!!!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    "How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/

    What do the Spectator think the answer is?

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.
    Labour are the extremist and nasty ones. Labour are the ones that have BNP members in their midst:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/22/Labour-cant-cry-ukip-racism-in-heywood-by-election-heres-why/

    And let's remember that you have had shadow cabinet ministers that claim entire races "play divide and rule" , and yet remain within good standing in the party.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312



    Nope. Go back and look at the stupid comment TSE made. He specifically referred to Carswell sitting with Labour. Stop trying to twist things.

    And given that the only reason that UKIP are winning support from the Tories is because of the idiotic stance Cameron is taking on important issues I think you would be better of laying the blame at the feet of the man doing the real damage to the Tories - their own leader.

    Or are you one of those who thinks that people should support the Tories simply because they are Tories irrespective of their actual policies? There seems to be a lot of that about at the moment.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
  • Hugh said:

    isam said:

    "How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/

    What do the Spectator think the answer is?

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.
    The article doesn't mention immigration once. It doesn't even intimate at it. It is very short and you really should read it. It is after all two of your own MPs trying to help your party.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    Danczuk is less popular than Tony Blair with Lab activists IMO

    I wonder why?

    Politics imported from Pakistan fuelled sex abuse cover up by Simon Danczuk

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11066646/Rotherham-politics-imported-from-Pakistan-fuelled-sex-abuse-cover-up-MP.html

    Even our police are blinded by liberal dogma by Simon Danczuk

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736219/Even-police-blinded-liberal-dogma-writes-SIMON-DANCZUK.html

    Heads must roll over Rotherham abuse scandal by Simon Danczuk

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/103720/simon_danczuk_heads_must_roll_over_rotherham_abuse_scandal.html
    It's almost like when you import hundreds of thousands of people from culturally backwards countries, and then preach a dogma which says they should keep their own culture and not integrate, you, surprise, suprise, end up with parts of your country that are culturally backwards.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    QTWTAIN

    @BBCNewsnight: Political editor @BBCAllegra tells #newsnight in the next eight months the question will be can the Labour brand carry the leader
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    isam said:

    Sky News (@SkyNews)
    22/09/2014 21:42
    DAILY EXPRESS FRONT PAGE: "Inheritance tax will be abolished" #skypapers pic.twitter.com/KjEIsJPoqz

    If that is a true UKIP policy, then I think that is a big mistake. Can't see it going down well in northern targets like Grimsby and the people most likely to benefit are in London which is one of UKIP's weakest regions.
    Actually, it's quite popular with lots of people.

    The sheer nastiness of hassling people who have just lost a loved one repels all right-thinking people. Tax something else.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Hugh said:

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.

    Labour is all based on minority coalitions these days. It's one of the reasons they are so ineffective.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014
    Ed Miliband is to set out a 10-year plan to reverse the damage he claims has been done by the Conservatives.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29310512

    I really don't think things have been that bad. I mean, he won't reverse any cuts so clearly not spending is deemed better than 'fixing' that, and things like Welfare changes, NHS changes, he could do that in five years, right?

    Clever kind of pitch though - shows a long term plan (or statement there is a long term plan), blames any tinkering as not tinkering but fixing damage caused by the whiff of Toryism, and already gives an excuse as to why things will not be perfect at the end of five years, that is by promising far too much.

    I believe the Tories used a similar argument, or are now, in that they have not yet had time to 'fix' Labour's damage in a mere five years.

    So it's not totally original, but when people are less inclined to buy some b*llsh*t that all will be perfect if you vote Tory/Labour because even the most optimistic can see we have too many problems to sort out in one term, just flat out admit the first term will be disappointing by really driving home how bad the current lot are. The great thing about it is you can use that as an excuse even if the problems are not that bad and you're just incompetent.
  • Scott_P said:

    QTWTAIN

    @BBCNewsnight: Political editor @BBCAllegra tells #newsnight in the next eight months the question will be can the Labour brand carry the leader

    Bloody hell, I wonder what made them ask them that?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    "How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/

    What do the Spectator think the answer is?

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.
    Ooh "nasty"... That hurts!

    They're nowhere as far in front with working class voters as they were, in the England and Wales Survation at the weekend they led Ukip by 3%

    I wouldn't be complacent about those votes if I were you

    Anyway the article is from the perspective of labour MPs not the spectator

    "Somebody who is not working class who listens is more useful than someone who is working class who doesn’t listen,’ said Denham. This really was unsettling, because though everything these two men said was insightful and thoughtful and useful to the party, it is astonishing that the party ever found itself in the situation where it simply needs to listen to its core vote."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014
    That said:

    The BBC understands he will also announce a spending boost for the NHS in England to be paid for by a tax on homes worth more than £2m.

    Come on, £2m? How much is that going to pay for, honestly? Every little helps of course (unless it's misspent of course, though outside of IT projects for any department, or some railway nightmare, you need the experts at the MOD to get proper high grade mispending), but that seems kind of piddly.

    Mr Miliband is expected to outline money-saving measures to show he can build a "world-class country" with no extra money.

    Oh gods. If any political party knew how to save enough money to make a genuine positive difference to build a world class country, I think they'd have done it by now and would be enjoying their 10th term in office.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    A 10 year plan?

    That's a Brown-ish Soviet style piece of nonsense.

    The minimum wage will be £8....IN 2020.

    Useless.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @georgeeaton: Miliband planning windfall tax on tobacco companies (via @patrickwintour). Political hit on Crosby. #lab14
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    "How does Labour win back the working class voters who’ve abandoned it? This question, part of the soul searching the party fell into when it lost the 2010 election, has gained even greater currency since the Scottish referendum. This evening Michael Dugher and John Denham had a stab at answering it at a conference fringe. And the answers were really quite unsettling".

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/the-simple-and-shocking-secret-to-the-working-class-vote/

    What do the Spectator think the answer is?

    Let me guess, drone on about immigrants and sound a bit, you know, about the whole thing?

    Fortunately Labour are far more popular amongst working class voters than other Party, particularly ones that are seen as extremist and nasty.
    Hugh, Hughtim, or tim-lite, whatever it is, you are learning from the master, never let the truth get in the way of a good smear.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I can't disguise my disappointment at the Scottish vote, but it always looked an uphill task for the yes campaign. Short of another economic spasm / downturn to fuel the separatist agenda, there wasn't enough 'oxygen' in the tank for it to happen. I personally think Salmond thought economic events would deteriorate in time for the vote, but alas its not going to happen until late next year now.

    Still a little surprised at the distribution of the yes vote. It was absolutely right for Salmond and co. to focus on the central belt Labour voter but I did expect them to do better in the heartlands where the SNP have MSP's and MP's - for instance Angus, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Aberdeenshire (and Western Isles - but such a small relative number of votes!). Maybe there are more voters who vote SNP in order to keep the Tories out in places like Moray, Angus, Banff and Buchan etc but would be natural Labour / Lib Dem voters outside an SNP / Tory race, and voted no last Thursday. I saw an analysis somewhere that reckoned that around 85% of SNP voters actually voted Yes last Thursday, which seems a big contradiction, but not given the level of sophisticated tactical voting that has gone on in Scotland for years now. Still, I'd love to get into the minds of the 5% of Tory vote that voted yes last Thursday too!

    On EV4EL I take the Vernon Bogdanor line - short of having a distinct English Parliament with direct separate elections to it, distinct from a Westminster GE, its unworkable. Could you imagine a situation where the Tories had a majority of votes in England, with Labour having a majority of UK votes? - the first thing any Labour government would do would be to assert as much control over English affairs as possible. I'm similar to NPXMP on this - whilst appreciating that you can't just transport the Swiss Cantonal system line by line to the UK, I would like to see that system with deference to UK realities implemented as far as practically possible, with a particular emphasis on doing away with career politicians. Thus power would truly be devolved as far as possible to the County / Town Hall and / or City area for large conurbations. Switzerland has traditionally done that well, although even their time honoured system has come under pressure in recent times from the rise of the Swiss People's Party (SVP).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

  • Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    And I predict that UKIP will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election. What will that say about the popularity of your party?
  • I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    And I predict that UKIP will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election. What will that say about the popularity of your party?
    You may be right, but we are in government, and that makes the party unpopular. Kippers can enjoy building policies on clouds without the discomforts and petty compromises of being in power. Anyone can be a pub bore, but not everyone can form a functioning government.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Has anyone got a clue as to what happens in the 59 Scottish constituencies at the GE next May now?

    My first thoughts are something like this. If the polls are showing Labour on course for an overall majority, I expect a lot of the SLAB vote to shift to the SNP, sufficient to go over the 5% tipping point - read that if its 8% Labour to SNP then it would deprive Labour of up to 19 of their seats potentially. If you voted Yes last Thursday then surely you'd prefer a hung parliament with as large a number of SNP MP's at Westminster that would play a crucial role in votes to secure the best deal for Scotland in the next parliament.

    If Labour are behind, and it looks like Tories being at least the largest party, then I forsee something like the status quo, although we must remember that Labour were at an incredibly high water mark in Scotland in 2010. However they can ride out up to a 5% swing against them with only a handful of seats lost. Even if this happens though, SNP are best placed to pick up a lot of the Lib Dem seats that are going to fall, apart from Kennedy, Orkney and Shetland, and I still see them clinging on in Fife NE - although I'd be more certain of that one if Ming Campbell was still standing there.

    Thoughts?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @adamboultonSKY: New line to take for Labour spokesmen: Ed is the new Attlee. Heard it tonight from @TristramHuntMP and Lord Falconer. #discuss
  • Scott_P said:

    @adamboultonSKY: New line to take for Labour spokesmen: Ed is the new Attlee. Heard it tonight from @TristramHuntMP and Lord Falconer. #discuss

    Ed is the new Kinnock.
  • Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    And I predict that UKIP will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election. What will that say about the popularity of your party?
    You may be right, but we are in government, and that makes the party unpopular. Kippers can enjoy building policies on clouds without the discomforts and petty compromises of being in power. Anyone can be a pub bore, but not everyone can form a functioning government.
    LOL. You have been nothing but cannon fodder for the Tories. You made up the numbers to keep them in power and then threw away every principle you had. That is why you are so low in the polls.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    hunchman said:

    I can't disguise my disappointment at the Scottish vote, but it always looked an uphill task for the yes campaign. Short of another economic spasm / downturn to fuel the separatist agenda, there wasn't enough 'oxygen' in the tank for it to happen. I personally think Salmond thought economic events would deteriorate in time for the vote, but alas its not going to happen until late next year now.

    Still a little surprised at the distribution of the yes vote. It was absolutely right for Salmond and co. to focus on the central belt Labour voter but I did expect them to do better in the heartlands where the SNP have MSP's and MP's - for instance Angus, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Aberdeenshire (and Western Isles - but such a small relative number of votes!). Maybe there are more voters who vote SNP in order to keep the Tories out in places like Moray, Angus, Banff and Buchan etc but would be natural Labour / Lib Dem voters outside an SNP / Tory race, and voted no last Thursday. IVP).

    Yes won in areas of

    High welfare
    High immigration
    High Catholic


    Not Perth, Moray or Aberdeen etc.

    Voters there vote SNP for non indy reasons.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @eljmayes: Leader of the Opposition Net Ratings one year before a General Elecction. Terrible reading for Miliband. #Newsnight http://t.co/ZHKyeQd8Hy
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    So what?

    UKIP's success is more than enough to keep the Tories permanently out of power.

    Cameron (and you) think that he owns the voter; that a right-winger voter has nowhere else to go except the Tories. Hence all his sucking up to liberals.

    If he were CEO of a business, he would have been sacked already.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Kippers seem obsessed with Cameron - not Mili or Clegg.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    My ex and I went to the aeolian islands on holiday and she refused to go on the boat trip to Stromboli preferring to lay by the pool all day every day, and totter down to the Main Street in high heels every night

    Humph

    sean thomas knox (@thomasknox)
    22/09/2014 22:21
    In a lifetime of travel, the Stromboli lava river is one of the most incredible things I've ever seen. Top ten. Top TEN. Bravo. BRAVO.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Ed is the new Kinnock.

    In his dreams...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Given Miliband's personal ratings, is threatening the UK with a 10 year stint the brightest idea?

    The Tories and UKIP and SNP must come to an agreement.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Ninoinoz said:

    isam said:

    Sky News (@SkyNews)
    22/09/2014 21:42
    DAILY EXPRESS FRONT PAGE: "Inheritance tax will be abolished" #skypapers pic.twitter.com/KjEIsJPoqz

    If that is a true UKIP policy, then I think that is a big mistake. Can't see it going down well in northern targets like Grimsby and the people most likely to benefit are in London which is one of UKIP's weakest regions.
    Actually, it's quite popular with lots of people.

    The sheer nastiness of hassling people who have just lost a loved one repels all right-thinking people. Tax something else.
    As I and (separately) a friend can attest, much of the hassle of being an executor is proving to the taxman that the estate is worth less than £300K (or in paying the tax before one can get one's paws on any of the money, funeral expenses etc. apart).

    However, if IHT were to vanish tomorrow, one would still need to do accurate probate records for public deposit, would one not? So the need for proper paperwork would still exist?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:

    hunchman said:

    I can't disguise my disappointment at the Scottish vote, but it always looked an uphill task for the yes campaign. Short of another economic spasm / downturn to fuel the separatist agenda, there wasn't enough 'oxygen' in the tank for it to happen. I personally think Salmond thought economic events would deteriorate in time for the vote, but alas its not going to happen until late next year now.

    Still a little surprised at the distribution of the yes vote. It was absolutely right for Salmond and co. to focus on the central belt Labour voter but I did expect them to do better in the heartlands where the SNP have MSP's and MP's - for instance Angus, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Aberdeenshire (and Western Isles - but such a small relative number of votes!). Maybe there are more voters who vote SNP in order to keep the Tories out in places like Moray, Angus, Banff and Buchan etc but would be natural Labour / Lib Dem voters outside an SNP / Tory race, and voted no last Thursday. IVP).

    Yes won in areas of

    High welfare
    High immigration
    High Catholic


    Not Perth, Moray or Aberdeen etc.

    Voters there vote SNP for non indy reasons.

    That was the conclusion that I came to, although the polls picked up the gender divide, and DE social groups more inclined to Yes, they didn't really major on the latter which was much more of a feature in the actual results.

    In the 59 Scottish seats next May, it'll be fascinating to see to what extent turnout rises compared to May 2010. What percentage of those voters, some who voted for the first time in 15 or 20 years last Thursday, will turn out at the GE? I would suggest that the higher the better as far as the SNP are concerned, particularly in the central belt.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    hunchman said:

    TGOHF said:

    hunchman said:

    I can't disguise my disappointment at the Scottish vote, but it always looked an uphill task for the yes campaign. Short of another economic spasm / downturn to fuel the separatist agenda, there wasn't enough 'oxygen' in the tank for it to happen. I personally think Salmond thought economic events would deteriorate in time for the vote, but alas its not going to happen until late next year now.

    Still a little surprised at the distribution of the yes vote. It was absolutely right for Salmond and co. to focus on the central belt Labour voter but I did expect them to do better in the heartlands where the SNP have MSP's and MP's - for instance Angus, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Aberdeenshire (and Western Isles - but such a small relative number of votes!). Maybe there are more voters who vote SNP in order to keep the Tories out in places like Moray, Angus, Banff and Buchan etc but would be natural Labour / Lib Dem voters outside an SNP / Tory race, and voted no last Thursday. IVP).

    Yes won in areas of

    High welfare
    High immigration
    High Catholic


    Not Perth, Moray or Aberdeen etc.

    Voters there vote SNP for non indy reasons.

    That was the conclusion that I came to, although the polls picked up the gender divide, and DE social groups more inclined to Yes, they didn't really major on the latter which was much more of a feature in the actual results.

    In the 59 Scottish seats next May, it'll be fascinating to see to what extent turnout rises compared to May 2010. What percentage of those voters, some who voted for the first time in 15 or 20 years last Thursday, will turn out at the GE? I would suggest that the higher the better as far as the SNP are concerned, particularly in the central belt.
    High DE= high welfare.


    Also only age group that voted yes was 25-44
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited September 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Miliband planning windfall tax on tobacco companies (via @patrickwintour). Political hit on Crosby. #lab14

    First they came for the Bankers, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes Bankers.
    Then they came for the Energy Companies, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes the Energy Companies.
    Then they came for the million home owners, and I did not speak out—
    Because I don't like in a multi-million pound home.
    But then they spent all of that money and all the rich people had left...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    Cameron drove the right vote away. As long as he maintains his current position it will remain split. Look to your own failings as a party rather than thrashing around for someone else to blame.
    As the morning thread shows, in large part the detoxification of the Conservative party has been largely successful, with the electorally unpopular people and policies being associated with another party.
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    So what?

    UKIP's success is more than enough to keep the Tories permanently out of power.

    Cameron (and you) think that he owns the voter; that a right-winger voter has nowhere else to go except the Tories. Hence all his sucking up to liberals.

    If he were CEO of a business, he would have been sacked already.
    I would be pretty happy with the kippers keeping the Tories out of power, and would be happier with a Labour government even if there was not a LD Lab coalition.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:



    nt.

    "which is fitting given how UKIP are helping Labour"

    Still the same rubbish claim that anyone standing against the Tories is helping Labour. Try going back to the source of the problem and start accepting that the one really helping Labour is Cameron himself with his idiotic refusal to understand his own natural supporters.
    Your head is well stuck in the sand. Splitting the right wing vote is a gift to labour. Take a look at the miserable history of ting tong kipper comments to see why I am glad Cameron is not apeing Farage's cheap dog whistles and fake populism.
    ...
    Well, funny old Nino prefers actual election results.

    That "electorally unpopular" party has just won the last nationwide election, the "detoxified" Tories finishing third for the first time in their history.

    Are you in some kind of alternate reality?
    I predict there will be very few kipper MPs in the next parliament, quite possibly none., they will be outnumbered 50/1 or more by Tory MPs.

    The thread below shows that UKIP are the most divisive party, actively disliked by many and seen as unfit to govern. I am in that group.

    There is a significant and very vocal support for UKIP, but even on their home turf on Europe, only 1/10 or so British voter turned out to vote kipper, and that looks like their upper limit.

    So what?

    UKIP's success is more than enough to keep the Tories permanently out of power.

    Cameron (and you) think that he owns the voter; that a right-winger voter has nowhere else to go except the Tories. Hence all his sucking up to liberals.

    If he were CEO of a business, he would have been sacked already.
    All these polls showing that UKIP are nationally the most net-disliked party are irrelevant to a certain extent. For the GE next May, it only really matters what the voters think in the 20-30 seats across the country they'll be actively targeting. And we all have a good idea of where they are! Who gives a hoot how much the voters hate UKIP in Scotland, Wales, and those Tory areas of England where UKIP aren't that strong like Newark. We only care about those seats where the demographics are inclined towards UKIP where they have a chance of winning the seat!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Freggles said:

    So, is the Tory party going to take the side of the NHS, or Big Tobacco?

    The only people who'll care are the shareholders and smokers, both of whom will be mightily miffed.

    What kind of people smoke?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I saw Miliband on the news the other night and the one thing I couldn't help but notice is that the guy has virtually no upper body mass at all. You can see the lack of muscle through his suit. It's like he's never done any sport in his life. Now I know this sort of thing shouldn't make a difference to how good a PM he'll be, but I'm sure it subconsciously affects his ratings. People don't want to be led by a physical weakling. And it's not like the competition is particularly impressive either!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Incidentally: Andrew Rowbotham has announced that he is standing down from his Leics safe seat:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/articles/news/article/22963479

    Keith Vaz has been favouring the blues over the reds:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/articles/news/article/22962937

    And Emile Heskey CAN hit a cows arse with a banjo!:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/articles/news/article/22963000

    the only paper worth reading...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:

    hunchman said:

    TGOHF said:

    hunchman said:

    I can't disguise my disappointment at the Scottish vote, but it always looked an uphill task for the yes campaign. Short of another economic spasm / downturn to fuel the separatist agenda, there wasn't enough 'oxygen' in the tank for it to happen. I personally think Salmond thought economic events would deteriorate in time for the vote, but alas its not going to happen until late next year now.

    Still a little surprised at the distribution of the yes vote. It was absolutely right for Salmond and co. to focus on the central belt Labour voter but I did expect them to do better in the heartlands where the SNP have MSP's and MP's - for instance Angus, Moray, Perth & Kinross, Aberdeenshire (and Western Isles - but such a small relative number of votes!). Maybe there are more voters who vote SNP in order to keep the Tories out in places like Moray, Angus, Banff and Buchan etc but would be natural Labour / Lib Dem voters outside an SNP / Tory race, and voted no last Thursday. IVP).

    Yes won in areas of

    High welfare
    High immigration
    High Catholic


    Not Perth, Moray or Aberdeen etc.

    Voters there vote SNP for non indy reasons.

    That was the conclusion that I came to, although the polls picked up the gender divide, and DE social groups more inclined to Yes, they didn't really major on the latter which was much more of a feature in the actual results.

    In the 59 Scottish seats next May, it'll be fascinating to see to what extent turnout rises compared to May 2010. What percentage of those voters, some who voted for the first time in 15 or 20 years last Thursday, will turn out at the GE? I would suggest that the higher the better as far as the SNP are concerned, particularly in the central belt.
    High DE= high welfare.


    Also only age group that voted yes was 25-44
    Don't forget the 16 and 17 year olds who broke 71-29 in favour!
  • On topic, I nearly headlined this piece

    "Listen to the interview with the man with balls the size of elephants"

    Tut, TSE, you should know that the approved PB term is 'cojones'.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Every one of your posts mentions Cameron,

    Ukip manifesto : stuff Cameron. Ends.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
  • Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Good. As a socially liberal Conservative I'd be appalled if Cameron appealed to social conservatives. Trying to do so would isolate a lot of supportive people who believe in small government socially and economically, without being guaranteed to win any new support.

    Plus society as a whole is becoming more and more socially liberal. There is a place in politics for a centre right party that believes in small governments economically and socially. That is Cameron.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Good. As a socially liberal Conservative I'd be appalled if Cameron appealed to social conservatives. Trying to do so would isolate a lot of supportive people who believe in small government socially and economically, without being guaranteed to win any new support.

    Plus society as a whole is becoming more and more socially liberal. There is a place in politics for a centre right party that believes in small governments economically and socially. That is Cameron.
    Depends on the issue. Gay marriage and drugs? Sure. Immigration and criminal justice? Not so much.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ninoinoz said:

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    The idea that UKIP and Muslim conservatism can exist in the same place is...fanciful.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Exactly why such schools should be closed, not new ones opened as Ninoinoz suggests!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Kippers seem obsessed with Cameron - not Mili or Clegg.

    True. If the leader of the Conservative Party doesn't want to actual conserve anything, then he is a fraud.

    Andrew Lilico sums its up quite neatly:
    Well, a small point is that there was always a danger in calling and thinking of the process as "modernising" if one is reforming something called "The Conservative Party". There's a fair chance that a good chunk of those that vote "Conservative" are folk that are, not to put too fine a point on it, conservative and might have thought that the very essence of voting Conservative was that one was voting against "modernising", believing gratuitous changes introduced simply for the sake of "renewal" and being "up to date" a Bad Thing.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100027989/what-went-wrong-with-conservative-party-modernisation/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Exactly why such schools should be closed, not new ones opened as Ninoinoz suggests!
    The point about Birmingham is that they weren't supposed to be faith schools, but sheer weight if numbers meant they effectively were
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Incidentally, also in the Leicester Mercury today:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/articles/news/article/22962427

    There is a lot of it about...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Miliband planning windfall tax on tobacco companies (via @patrickwintour). Political hit on Crosby. #lab14

    First they came for the Bankers, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes Bankers.
    Then they came for the Energy Companies, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes the Energy Companies.
    Then they came for the million home owners, and I did not speak out—
    Because I don't like in a multi-million pound home.
    But then they spent all of that money and all the rich people had left...
    We have a tax already for that? Or has Miliband aimed to get money without dissuading to accommodating consumption ?
  • I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Which is why they have been stuck in the low-to-mid 30%s forever, it seems.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    You live in Leicester?

    You don't bloody sound like you do.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Good. As a socially liberal Conservative I'd be appalled if Cameron appealed to social conservatives. Trying to do so would isolate a lot of supportive people who believe in small government socially and economically, without being guaranteed to win any new support.

    Plus society as a whole is becoming more and more socially liberal. There is a place in politics for a centre right party that believes in small governments economically and socially. That is Cameron.
    Well I'm a Libertarian and Cameron certainly doesn't appeal to me. You can't be a serious economic and social liberal whilst remaining in the wretched EU. And ramming through the Digital Communications Bill with that now favourite, the sunset clause, in no way is the action of a true social liberal. Then there is the issue of AGW, which as I see it is a battle of the true scientific method over the hysterical nonsense - how easily led astray all those people on the climate change marches over the weekend! And finally, a genuine economic liberal has a commitment to a small state - how is a state that is still taxing between 45 and 50% of national income and not serious about tackling the £100bn a year public sector borrowing requirement committed to a small state?

    How Fitalass thought I was a Labour voter the other day I'll never know. Only she can answer that one! I despise socialism in all its forms and have regularly spoken out against it over the last decade or so on here.
  • YouGov sees the first EV4EL bounce for the Tories

    LAB - 35% (-1)
    CON - 33% (+2)
    UKIP - 14% (-2)
    LDEM - 7% (=)
    GRN - 5% (=)

    Bloody Hell yes looks like it doesnt it I think Ed should abbandon all hope!!!
    It rather seems it's heading that way doesn't it?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Plus society as a whole is becoming more and more socially liberal. There is a place in politics for a centre right party that believes in small governments economically and socially. That is Cameron.
    Hmm. Someone forgot to tell the immigrants and ethnic minorities already here - and their children - that.

    What you mean is White people are becoming more socially liberal. Perhaps, but the demographics are remorseless and spell doom for a socially liberal Conservative Party. The socially liberal demographic is already well catered for in UK politics.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Exactly why such schools should be closed, not new ones opened as Ninoinoz suggests!
    The point about Birmingham is that they weren't supposed to be faith schools, but sheer weight if numbers meant they effectively were
    They were indeed. The problem in Birmingham was that the area was not integrated, so the schools could not be. These were ghetto schools, though nominally local authority.

    I oppose immigration from communities that fail to integrate and assimilate to British values. Where I differ from UKIP is that I find that immigrants from EU countries on the whole integrate well, as do some none EU migrants such as our delightful and industrious Philipino nurses.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will Ed be knocked off the news by ISIS again ?
  • It would be interesting to hear what bets, if any, Hills' now most famous but anonymous client is planning for the May GE.
    Perhaps Mike could have him in for an internet Q&A session with PBers.
  • Grandiose said:

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Miliband planning windfall tax on tobacco companies (via @patrickwintour). Political hit on Crosby. #lab14

    First they came for the Bankers, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes Bankers.
    Then they came for the Energy Companies, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes the Energy Companies.
    Then they came for the million home owners, and I did not speak out—
    Because I don't like in a multi-million pound home.
    But then they spent all of that money and all the rich people had left...
    We have a tax already for that? Or has Miliband aimed to get money without dissuading to accommodating consumption ?
    I propose a windfall tax on MPs for the value of their accrued gold plated best in class pension scheme!!!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    You live in Leicester?

    You don't bloody sound like you do.
    I have been in Leicester for 22 years. The schools my kids go to have been very pleasantly multicultural and multifaith. There are segregationist and religiously based schools in the city (including a Catholic Secondary) but I do not approve.

    Kids can go to Sunday school for that if they want, but weekday schooling should be secular and in the spirit of the enlightenment.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Whilst in no way do I think that last Thursday's vote was systematically rigged, I would like an inquiry into the sort of activity seen in the attached YouGov clip:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/22/how-to-rig-an-election-in-uk-and-anywhere-else-for-that-matter/

    I think nearly 100,000 people have signed the petition by change.org now. You can dismiss these people as freaks, nutters etc. but if there is genuinely nothing to hide then the powers that be should be fully accountable for their actions. The ongoing postal vote system, open to fraud as it is, does concern me greatly. I would favour moving to electronic voting system, bullet proof tested by hackers and the like, before being used - that would be a lot more secure than the present system that is open to all sorts of abuses.

    Good night all.
  • It would be interesting to hear what bets, if any, Hills' now most famous but anonymous client is planning for the May GE.
    Perhaps Mike could have him in for an internet Q&A session with PBers.

    It would be even more interesting to know why Mr Hills accepts a £900K bet from one client, and won't lay a £9 bet from another...
  • Not being a Sun Reader, but having visited their politics website of late to check out the daily polling numbers from YouGov, it's interesting to see them referring to Miliband there as "Red Ed". This rather suggests that they are unlikely to feature among his biggest fans come the General Election.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2014
    I'm a Libertarian and Cameron appeals to me as a mix between that branch of Conservative and realpolitik. I think under the circumstances this government has done about as good a job as possible in shrinking back the overwhelming size of the state.

    Look at the change between the number of private and public sector employees. The government can't do dramatic changes at once but under the water some significant changes in the right direction have occurred which will continue under Tory governance but be reversed under the Ed's.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    chestnut said:

    Freggles said:

    So, is the Tory party going to take the side of the NHS, or Big Tobacco?

    The only people who'll care are the shareholders and smokers, both of whom will be mightily miffed.

    What kind of people smoke?

    People in safe Labour seats, mostly, I'd imagine.

    Tax cancer to fund chemo, it's almost Josh Lymanesque in its poetry.
    I notice very few direct criticisms of it so far, they'll roll out the 'it won't work, it's unraveling'line but probably feeling dirty while they do so
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014

    It would be interesting to hear what bets, if any, Hills' now most famous but anonymous client is planning for the May GE.
    Perhaps Mike could have him in for an internet Q&A session with PBers.

    It would be even more interesting to know why Mr Hills accepts a £900K bet from one client, and won't lay a £9 bet from another...
    Yes indeed ...... I think it's called PR!
    The particular name of the Hills' account on the cheque rather gave the game away I thought.

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Exactly why such schools should be closed, not new ones opened as Ninoinoz suggests!
    The point about Birmingham is that they weren't supposed to be faith schools, but sheer weight if numbers meant they effectively were
    They were indeed. The problem in Birmingham was that the area was not integrated, so the schools could not be. These were ghetto schools, though nominally local authority.

    I oppose immigration from communities that fail to integrate and assimilate to British values. Where I differ from UKIP is that I find that immigrants from EU countries on the whole integrate well, as do some none EU migrants such as our delightful and industrious Philipino nurses.
    So, in summary, keep the darkies out.

    And it's Filipina, BTW.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    It would be interesting to hear what bets, if any, Hills' now most famous but anonymous client is planning for the May GE.
    Perhaps Mike could have him in for an internet Q&A session with PBers.

    It would be even more interesting to know why Mr Hills accepts a £900K bet from one client, and won't lay a £9 bet from another...
    We need to find out who he is so he can get us on! What an account!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Grandiose said:

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Miliband planning windfall tax on tobacco companies (via @patrickwintour). Political hit on Crosby. #lab14

    First they came for the Bankers, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes Bankers.
    Then they came for the Energy Companies, and I did not speak out—
    Because nobody likes the Energy Companies.
    Then they came for the million home owners, and I did not speak out—
    Because I don't like in a multi-million pound home.
    But then they spent all of that money and all the rich people had left...
    We have a tax already for that? Or has Miliband aimed to get money without dissuading to accommodating consumption ?
    I propose a windfall tax on MPs for the value of their accrued gold plated best in class pension scheme!!!
    1/40ths final salary scheme. An absolute affront to anyone outside parliament.

    Pay them properly (100k a year) and do away with all the benefits. And man up to the headlines the following day of a 50% rise in base pay no doubt. With all the benefits, it would be a cut in real terms, and ensure that they are in touch with the real world. Do away with all the subsidization of the canteens etc in the Palace of Westminster. Miliband didn't have a clue how much a pint of milk was. Nor did Cameron on a cost of living question. No wonder, when they don't come anywhere near the real world.

    Rant over.

    Good night this time I promise!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Go through any list of prominent Yes celebs and media commentators and they invariably have something in common.

    Portion in that link about the schools is also informative.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    You live in Leicester?

    You don't bloody sound like you do.
    I have been in Leicester for 22 years. The schools my kids go to have been very pleasantly multicultural and multifaith. There are segregationist and religiously based schools in the city (including a Catholic Secondary) but I do not approve.

    Kids can go to Sunday school for that if they want, but weekday schooling should be secular and in the spirit of the enlightenment.
    Tough. Religious schools represent a third of maintained schools and we ain't going nowhere. In fact, the proportion is increasing.

    Isn't Leicester a minority-majority city now?

    There's not a lot you can do about it now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ninoinoz said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    Isn't that what's happening in Birmingham?
    Exactly why such schools should be closed, not new ones opened as Ninoinoz suggests!
    The point about Birmingham is that they weren't supposed to be faith schools, but sheer weight if numbers meant they effectively were
    They were indeed. The problem in Birmingham was that the area was not integrated, so the schools could not be. These were ghetto schools, though nominally local authority.

    I oppose immigration from communities that fail to integrate and assimilate to British values. Where I differ from UKIP is that I find that immigrants from EU countries on the whole integrate well, as do some none EU migrants such as our delightful and industrious Philipino nurses.
    So, in summary, keep the darkies out.

    And it's Filipina, BTW.
    They refer to themselves as Phillipino, who am I to argue...

    It is not about skin colour. Many from places like Syria are as white as I am. It is about values and willingness to integrate with British society.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    On topic.

    This chap won 200k on the indy ref.


    The fat lottery winners lost millions bankrolling YES.



    The Lord giveth then taketh away..
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    I wonder what sort of policies the Conservatives could possibly propose which could attract back significant numbers of voters who have defected to UKIP but simultaneously avoid losing a similar number of voters (such as myself) who are on the very liberal soft right?

    I don't think it's possible.

    Wrong question. Common ground, not centre ground.

    Some socially conservative measures to bring back a lot of Ukippers and attract the highly religious ethnic minorities (just like myself). Church and Muslim schools would be a good start.

    Cameron simply does not know these people exist.
    Yep. What we need is more kids being brought up in monocultural schools by religiously motivated fanatics. That will sort out the countries problems.
    You live in Leicester?

    You don't bloody sound like you do.
    I have been in Leicester for 22 years. The schools my kids go to have been very pleasantly multicultural and multifaith. There are segregationist and religiously based schools in the city (including a Catholic Secondary) but I do not approve.

    Kids can go to Sunday school for that if they want, but weekday schooling should be secular and in the spirit of the enlightenment.
    Tough. Religious schools represent a third of maintained schools and we ain't going nowhere. In fact, the proportion is increasing.

    Isn't Leicester a minority-majority city now?

    There's not a lot you can do about it now.
    It's easy to tell you hold deeply held religious convictions, you ooze intolerance of others.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    TGOHF said:

    Go through any list of prominent Yes celebs and media commentators and they invariably have something in common.

    Portion in that link about the schools is also informative.
    Yes, the day after the referendum they still had to face an SNP Government. They wisely kept their heads low.

    Still, it shows how the grip of Labour on an ethnic-religious group can collapse. Cameron please note.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    You learn something new about Enoch every day

    It was he who first used the term "the West Lothian question"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-14834752
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Iraq/Syria:

    Strong rumours that the French defence attache in Baghdad has been killed in a bomb attack. Still awaiting confirmation. Curiously enough just a day or so after France officially announced its air force involvement in strikes and the very imminent nature of the 1st actual strikes in Syria.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    On topic. Fair play to him for risking his money.

    I can't help but think If I was punting £900k I would have negotiated better odds than this guy. I'd have thought you could quite easily play the bookies off against each other, or even approach some of the bigger city firms like IG or SPIN. I mean he probably mugged himself out of at least £50k.

    Alternatively, for a bet that big, he could have sounded out some of the SNP backers and negotiated an escrow bet at better odds.

    I guess for some punters the winning is more important than the winnings.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    The guardian ( http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/22/ed-miliband-speech-tax-tobacco-nhs-labour-conference ) reports that Labour wants to create high-tech jobs "in a bid to overhaul the number of Germans and Japan."

    How cryptic!
  • A French man has been kidnapped in Algeria by a militant group linked to Islamic State (IS), French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has confirmed.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29319226
This discussion has been closed.