politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

Astonishing. The Labour High Command seems to be entrenching themselves into a clear "f*ck the English" position.

This is running sooooo badly {in my direct experience) with boring, non-political English voters (ie., my in-laws).

Good luck Ed....arguing vs EV4EL ..cut your own throat resisting this

BBC repoting that Labour say EV4EL will result in 'two classes of MP' and more time is needed.

Can't disagree with the 1st part. Yes there is already some difference but EV4EL coupled with DevoMAX produces a dramatic unsustainable 2nd class.

The 2nd part needing more time to think up an answer is a disgrace for a professional MP given than the WLQ was asked in 1977.

In my view DevoMAX leads inexorably to EV4EL, a de facto English parliament and ultimately an indepedent Scotland and therefore doesn't have a democratic mandate.

JohnLilburne said:

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't see it on the Sunday Times website, but this source is usually spot on

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m

National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

LAB - 36% (+1)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 16% (+2)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (=)

LOL so despite supplementary questions LAB lead increases.

fieldwork would have been Thurs/Fri so partially reflects the Scotch vote, EV4EL won't quite have made an impact. The Labour increase is probably down to Gord's visibility. UKIP are up as well, their recent trend has been slightly downwards.

I believe the YG fieldwork is always up to the morning, so it'll be Fri/Sat. After all, the same poll is asking questions about the same people's view of EV4EL, which as you say wouldn't have registered on Thur/Fri. I don't really think the shifts in the poll show any significant movement (once again).

I think people will generally feel EV4EL is quite a good idea because it sounds reasonable, but they are mostly unlikely to think it's very salient to their lives. None of the 146 people we saw today - admittedly in a pro-Labour WWC ward - mentioned it. If the Tories want to pursue it I expect they can raise the salience level a bit, at the expense of not talking about something else. I wouldn't think it's a magic bullet myself, but nothing to stop them trying.

bigjohnowls said:

perdix said:

hucks67 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

hucks67 said:

For some reason Cameron believes that Labour should just agree to some deal not to allow its non English MP's to take part in parliamentary business involving purely English matters. Why should they do this ? It is not Labours fault that the Tories don't win seats in Scotland. I bet Welsh Tory MP's currently vote on English matters.

Ed Miliband is not falling for this. Cameron signed up to the Scottish devomax deal and he has to get on with it. Tory backbenchers are not Milibands problem. Miliband has indicated that he is willing to have some form of commission or committee look at how they make changes to reflect devolution and this will take place after May 2015. There is no chance of any changes to the way parliament works before May 2015 with all the other stuff going on and an election campaign period. Cameron is just playing politics.

I don't see why they need to agree. Could Cameron not just simply pass it with the Lib Dems? If the Lib Dems want to break up the Coalition over it, that's fine, but firstly it's not really the note they want to go out on, and secondly it would involve giving up nearly a year's time in Government.

They can't do it anyway. Ken Clarke looked in to this and I believe that constitutional experts said that they can only restrict MP participation in committee stage. For any other stage of a bill, all MP's are equal. This is why Cameron is wanting Labour and other parties to agree some form of administrative deal between them.

To summarise, it is not possible for the Tories to pass a bill that restricts the rights of Westminsters MP's to vote only on certain issues. Erskine May cannot be updated in this way, as it not constituitionally proper.

If Labour blocks EV4EL and Labour and Libdems block an EU referendum, Cammo will go into the 2015 GE saying you can have both if you have a Conservative majority. What's not to like?

It only appeals to right wing frothers ?

Most people more interested in the state of the NHS and fall in living standards IMO

Labour didn't seem bothered by the shortcomings of NHS whilst they were in power.

Certainly wasn't safe in your hands was it

TheScreamingEagles said:

ED MILIBAND was facing internal dissent over his refusal to support home rule for England last night as Labour MPs broke cover to condemn his position as untenable.

Senior figures say up to six members of Miliband’s frontbench team support reforms restricting the right of Scottish MPs to vote on English laws — and are prepared to say so publicly.

The issue now threatens to disrupt Labour’s party conference, which begins in Manchester today.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg last night launched a pincer movement to isolate the Labour leader, with Downing Street saying the prime minister believes it is “unthinkable” that the rights of the English should be ignored. And in an article for The Sunday Times, Clegg accused Labour of “ignoring” England because they have “most to lose” if Scottish MPs have their voting rights restricted

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1462076.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_09_20

Ed's intellectual confidence will see him through

bigjohnowls said:

I thought Tory PBers had more political nouse

EV4EL is the new Rotherham

Only a Labour fan boy could try to play down Rotherham

@Scott_P

'@BBCPeterH: Ed Miliband has pulled out of planned BBC interviews tomorrow. No sign of problem at SE reception tonight #strange http://t.co/aFS4gWXLrg'

How did they manage to control the crowd at the SE reception?

Hugh said:

saddened said:

surbiton said:

SeanT said:

Socrates said:

Hugh said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hugh said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

I thought Tory PBers had more political nouse

EV4EL is the new Rotherham

You weren't around when PB Kinnocks jizzed themselves inside out when Dave went shopping in Morrisons.

But who can forget Cameron's "Veto"?

PB Tories thought it was Cameron's falklands moment. Kleenex had to cancel leave.

Saw off UKIP that, didn't it. Worked out well. Lol.

Err no, most of us said it wouldn't last.

I remember the Kinnocks going there'll be no vote change at all, then changing their tune, agreeing with us, that it wouldn't last.

Nah, one of the most dedicated PB Tories, Plato, even declared she'd "rejoined" the Party because of it. Couldn't even PRETEND she was a "floating voter" any more. It was THAT GOOD!

Really holed UKIP below the waterline that veto though hey.

You started posting long after Plato was here talking about being a floating voter. It's almost like you were here around the same time as that poster tim. You'd have got along well with him: he liked marginalising the stories of hundreds of children getting raped too.

Ludicrous Wirrall-based twat. Nailed by Socrates. Give it up.

The ghost of tim still terrifies the raving right !

Seriously? Terrifies the right? This is a little backwater of the internet, some dork with mediocre Google skills is not a position to terrify anyone, bore yes, terrify no. You need to raise your sights higher than some stay at home dad who lives off the earnings of his wife to hero worship.

So irrelevant was he that some Tory scumbags on a little internet backwater maliciously threatened his family by revealing personal details.

Tory scumbags that are still allowed to post on a little internet backwater.

Were you around then?

It wasn't Plato and I wonder if you know what led up to that event.

Not sure how his family was threatened either......

He was however an obnoxious little bully.

Ps - The person who posted his address shouldn't have done it - but tim was no innocent.

@Floater

'@BBCPeterH: Ed Miliband has pulled out of planned BBC interviews tomorrow. No sign of problem at SE reception tonight #strange http://t.co/aFS4gWXLrg'

Gordon Brown is going to do the interviews for him.

(On Topic)

I'm a bit confused by the PB Indyref competition because there seem to be two of them. The other day I got an email with a list of entries, and this article has a link to a different list. On the emailed one, there was no entry for 44.70, and the nearest was Antifrank with 44.56.

At the very least EV4EL should be put to a referendum

manofkent2014 said:

HurstLlama said:

manofkent2014 said:

The other thing to bare in mind when comparing 2015 to 2010 is there is unlikely to be another Cleggasm..

No kidding - I'm amazed he's still in place, thought the latest he would go is late 2014, so still time I guess.

Theuniondivvie said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Theuniondivvie,

Thanks, was proud of our efforts in Glasgow (our constituency had 2nd highest Yes for the city), if a little disappointed with the turnout. Some strange turnout figures: I believe Hillhead, probably the most affluent area of Glasgow, was 60%.

Any ideas about why the, comparitively low, turnout figures? It really feels if people didn't turn out for this one they would not turn out for anything, so there's no way to engage them at all, democratically.

Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert


Going to be easier next time. English fury doing half the job for Scot Nats.

Eh, maybe. The fury may not last as long as it seems, particularly if a settlement broadly acceptable to all is conjured up somehow

HYUFD said:

Eh Ehm Nope as the Scottish Daily Mail tomorrow leads on the fact a new poll shows Scots are now fed up with independence talk, and do not want another referendum for at least a generation

We'll see whether they still believe that in five years.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Front page of the Indy isn't good for Andrew Mitchell

"Plebgate: 'Mitchell had record of abusing police'"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByASy0nIQAAQVt8.jpg

Sounds bad, but seems largely irrelevant to multiple officers being proven to have lied about events or facilitated the lie, and the officer at the centre of the current dispute, even if innocent of that and right that Mitchell is a dick, certainly knew there had been lying from fellow officers and yet it took a year long investigation to sort that out when they could have done so in 5 seconds.

Mark Hopkins

"Can we kill this "Brown saved the Union" meme? There are three factors that led to NO:-

1. Osborne's "no currency union".

2. Cameron's "we're great together" speech (which Brown copied from).

3. Businesses making clear the economic reality of independence.

Brown may have helped a bit.

I should add I suppose 4 - Salmond failing to come up with coherent responses to points 1 - 3."

I would say wrong on every count. I've just come back from Aberdeen and it looks very different from there.

I'd say the reason for NO winning was the old folk who came out in force. And I mean in wheelchairs on crutches and one at the polling station I manned on a stretcher. His son-in law explained that he'd insisted because he was terrified....

And that was the crux. They were terrified. They were scared of just about everything. The reason they came out in force was because they believed YES might win. All the talk was of a YES walkover.

The only thing I heard about Cameron from the NO camp was that it was a big mistake any of the Westminster leaders getting involved. The only NO politician who were considered to be a possible game changer was Brown who was credited with giving the NO side some heart.

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheWatcher said:

Has Stuart 'Clueless wonders are in for a shock' Dickson been seen since Thursday?

Tipping point

I also loved The Union Divvie's single word - "boom" - as a poll came up, coupla days before the vote, showing another YES lead.

Turned out it was a typo, and NO was in the lead.

"Boom.

Oh."

Credit to Carnyx for coming on here and being a man, the rest of the Nats have turned out to be the most pathetic bunch of girl scouts, running away from the Unionist spider. All kilt and no sporran. A spineless mob of fanny-featured jessies. Hilarious.

An all-too-predictable handbrake turn from pitiful blubbering to triumphalist blustering; to modify Churchill's aphorism, in the face of defeat unnerved, in victory unbearable. Much better to have spent the last few days with friends and fellow campaigners rather than unpleasant bystanders.

If you pm me either details for a bank transfer or an e-mail address for a Paypal payment I'll forward £100.

If Tim's looking in, I owe you £100 on the Indy winner, and you owe me £50 for the Salmond v. Darling Ipsos approval ratings (on my reading), so net I owe you £50. You can let me know via Peter the Punter how you'd like paid.

Mark Senior, you owe me £25 for Yes being above 40%, let me know how you want to pay.

Antifrank, you owe charity £50 for Yes being above 40%. I think I nominated the Erskine veterans charity - http://www.erskine.org.uk

good to see you back divvie, it's been a bit quiet with malc on hols.

Hear hear.