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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….
Many thanks once again to Shadsy of Ladbrokes politics for donating the prize, and Mark Hopkins for developing the software for us to submit our entries.
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Hope to get the pre-race piece up sometime before 8pm.
Do you have any betting tips Ryan?
Betting PostBacked Ricciardo for the win at 10.5, hedged at 4:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/singapore-pre-race.html
The trouble will really come if the Scots rightly suspect that the devomax on offer is nothing of the sort - but the rest of the UK will get fired up about all this 'devomax' being given to us Scots.
It may have been deliberate obfuscation to get through to 19 September, but the confusion isn't going to help reach a rational result. This is am absolutely crucial terminological issue, IMO.
[edit} and congrats to the winner too.
I'm fairly certain back in 2012, there was a market on which leader would go first, Salmond, Clegg, Miliband and Cameron, and you could have got around 8/1 on Salmond.
It'll not last long ....
4.13 out overall for me (both Yes and Turnout combined) - not a shameful effort.
*Innocent face*
I do agree with your assessment this time though.
However Brown may have just driven the first spike into the coffin of the Scottish Labour Party. The YESNP and chums seem to have created a new movement called The 45. Since Thursday 5,000 people have joined the SNP and members of the Labour Party have been putting pictures on Twitter of them burning their Labour card memberships.
EV4EL will be a major issue if the Tories make it one. It is ludicrous that Scottish Labour MPs can vote on Health, Education etc issues for England but they cannot vote on them as regards their own constituents, never mind whether English MPs can. That is the really offensive thing about the current arrangements. To be fair the SNP and Scots Tory MPs do not vote on English matters.
Darling's success was in getting moderate Labour people to campaign side by side with Tories and LibDems. Brown was his usual divisive self, being instrumental in Labour creating its own separate organisation which proved to be an unmitigated failure. Very noticeable that SLAB's leader Johann Lamont saw her own constituents vote YES. Nicola Sturgeon will make mincemeat of her at First Ministers Questions.
Which polls are we expecting tonight?
David Aaronovitch @DAaronovitch 22h
50.001% Yes would have meant Scottish separation in perpetuity. Apparently a No win by 10.6% lasts only until the Yes campaign wants it to.
Aric Gilinsky @AGilinsky · 9h
45% of Scotland votes Yes, "So close!" while 46.5% of Glasgow votes No and "Yes by a country mile."
Clegg ........... 7/4
Salmond ....... 9/4
Farage .......... 4/1
Cameron ...... 5/1
Miliband ....... 6/1
I thought he would go; but not within 48 hours
I also have to ask, will it last, in large numbers, for at least 2 years?
Feels like a hard left group, a la SSP, in the making.
I still don't logically understand that result and I've put it down to a combination of the cussedness of the Watford electorate, a highly effective ballot stuffing operation by the lizard people and Sean Fear and his then Conservative prayer mat.
I'm not sure how the Tories gained Winchester, and I backed the LDs in Wells for all the wrong reasons, but it was all down to the Kippers that one.
Shadsy needn't cry too much, he will get it back! He always does in the end.
I hope your recovery is both swift and complete and your ARSE in form next year!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxRdVuoIQAAKtpt.jpg:large
(For the great unwashed that aren't fluent in Latin, It says London loves Scotland, don't leave us )
The great reality of it is, it was George Osborne what won it, the polling shows that.
I have a thread for next week, entitled
George Osborne: The man who saved the Union.
40% - 45% Yes Vote ....... Stake 58% at 9/4 (3.25 decimal)
35% - 40% Tes Vote ....... Stake 42% at 7/2 (4.50 decimal)
So thank you.
Do you know the very funny thing about that tip, someone, who shall remain nameless, in reply to your post said this
"That post confirms something that has been obvious for a long time: non-Scots, even poilitically knowledgable ones, are in for a shock on 19 September."
66 Labour MPs sitting on a bench,
66 Labour MPs sitting on a bench,
And If the Tories wangle EVfEL,
The Labour Party's Spent,
There'll Be Zero Labour MP's sitting on that bench.
Hubris.
In fairness I was disappointed with the final projected YES number albeit from 5 weeks out. McARSE was trending to YES but back in mid August I had to make a judgement on how far this would go and also the reaction of NO inclined voters in differential turnout.
Having dialled in these factors I underestimated the scope of the trend and also the differential turnout. Glasgow and Dundee refers. That said a final McARSE would have put YES at around 43.5% so still out by a few points, which isn't good enough really even allowing for the individual nature of a hugely important binary referendum.
The turnout markets were pretty easy from day one, so almost free money there.
Glad you and so many others made a few shillings and I'll do my best to ensure my ARSE does likewise for the general election when it returns at the back end of October.
I also do owe you an apology, for not hat tipping you in my Hammond bet thread a few weeks ago, it was an oversight, not deliberate, and shouldn't have happened. Has been hectic times for those who have been writing PB threads this last month. But again apologies.
I assure you, it won't happen in the future.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx4qVWJIYAAbJ6V.jpg:large
‘Everyone in Eritrea knows you have to get to Britain, not Italy or France. I have friends there sleeping on the streets, and they have nothing to eat. In Calais, people are sleeping in the street. I know in the UK I will get something to eat and a bed to sleep in.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2761600/The-madness-hotel-asylum-600-migrants-crammed-98-rooms-London-hotel-500-000-bill-paid-YOU.html
...............................................................
I'm getting the evil eye ....
Off to bed early .... almost like the old days ....
Titter .....
Five things we learned during the independence referendum
'1. When a notoriously unpleasant Hollywood producer died thousands of people turned out for his funeral. Quizzed by a fellow mourner as to why someone so unpopular should attract such a crowd, one wit quipped: ‘Give the public what they want …’
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/09/19/what-we-have-learned-during-the-referendum/
Best wishes.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/missing-alice-gross-arnis-zalkalns-now-a-suspect-as-met-release-cctv-of-latvian-builder-cycling-near-canal-path-9740096.html
It is utterly stunning that we allow convicted murderers into the UK. Will Cameron commit to removing free movement from serious criminals as part of his negotiations? It's one of the few things he could probably actually achieve.
Either way, what we're seeing is an idiotic pantomime we should pay no heed to whatever.
Locating them in Gatwick when they arrived in Dover is just insane. Its about time May forced the Immigration bureaucrats out of Looney (Lunar) House and put them where they are needed (Ports, Train stations and Airports)
PS I thought May had announced she was scrapping the Border force's Agency status and bringing it in house?
Last night on here posters were claiming multiple stabbings and implying Loyalists were nazis.
A camp in a friendly African country would be a good start.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/morrison-asylum-seekers-should-go-home-or-face-very-very-long-detention
The UKBA will have inherited a lot of that corporate culture and sticking them in uniform and putting some retired copper, topping up his pension, in charge was not going to change that, at least not without an awful lot of good leadership starting at the very top.
Turning the UKBA around is not just, or even primarily, a matter of money. It is matter of leadership. Sack the top three or four tiers (yes including ministers) and get some good people in there and you might have a chance.
UKIP 37%
Conservative Party 29%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Labour Party 11%
Green Party 6%
Other 6%
*the bookies are totally wrong, based on English punters
*there is something going on for YES, on the ground, that the media is not picking up.
*number of YES posters in windows greatly outnumbers NO
*it will be 60% YES
The actual result shows that we were right not to be swayed too much by how many people are putting up YES posters
Immediate deportation to an offshore camp would soon put a stop to the camp in Calais.
Libdem 5980 34%
Con 5656 32%
Lab** 2471 14.%
Green 1740 10%
UKIP* 1635 9%
English Democrats 115 0.65%
*UKIP only Contested 1 of 4 Wards
** Labour only contested 3 of 4 wards.
I think the big question is how much of the Libdem vote in Maidstone is a general protest vote that could easily shift to UKIP as it seemed to do in the Euros
1. I know Ann Widdecombe was very popular, but the drop in majority when she retired from 14k to 6k seems like an enormous personal vote. Are there any other changes that have taken place?
2. If UKIP get their act together could they hack away at that Conservative vote still further? My bet is that they could and possibly will. Enough to see the Lib Dem over the line? Well that seems doubtful given their collapse in support since 2010, but certainly a constituency worth keeping an eye on and maybe risking a few bob, if one can get sensible odds.
The audience appeared to be packed with Salmond supporters, who responded wildly to his rhetoric. Darling's more factual approach was treated with disdain.
I agree that the tide turned in the last week or so but I suspect that was largely to do with an increasing realisation that a Yes vote was likely to force Scotland to face some fairly awkward realities. Darling, and subsequently Brown, played their part, but it was those realities that won the day.
Edit I see Man of Kent has posted up the last local election results - I think these are more significant
(1) Congratulations to David Evershed – a most worthy winner
(2) Glad to see so many took part in the competition, with some actually de-lurking.
(3) Gob smacked to be on the first page, let alone in the top 35.
Many thanks to OGH and all those involved in the organisation & running of – cheers.
Conservative 24
Lib Dem 20
Independent 5
UKIP 4
Labour 2
Whether or not they will try and target it whilst setting up seige defences around their own constituencies is another question?
The polls listed on Wikipedia suggest something changed 7 to 10 days before referendum day to move DKs to No, and Betfair's prices iirc showed an inflection point around then too (I thought there was a graph in a pb header but I cannot find it). Maybe shadsy has some Ladbrokes figures. It does not help that the polls all seem to spread field work over three days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014
If you pm me either details for a bank transfer or an e-mail address for a Paypal payment I'll forward £100.
If Tim's looking in, I owe you £100 on the Indy winner, and you owe me £50 for the Salmond v. Darling Ipsos approval ratings (on my reading), so net I owe you £50. You can let me know via Peter the Punter how you'd like paid.
Mark Senior, you owe me £25 for Yes being above 40%, let me know how you want to pay.
Antifrank, you owe charity £50 for Yes being above 40%. I think I nominated the Erskine veterans charity - http://www.erskine.org.uk
I can live with that.
Front page of the Scottish Mail on Sunday
"Don't DARE ask us again" - Poll exclusive - Scots back SNP but not another referendum
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByAIcsoIgAArBUD.jpg
Fieldwork was friday
The other question is why Mr Cameron was more frightened of his backbenchers than the Scots, and risked the Union instead of talking them through what might be necessary. He did have two years, and could have made it clear at the start that "we will offer the third option with full details at the time, but if it's not a goer, it's a plain yes/no indyref".
Instead, look what we ****** get! He's managed to upset, oh, everyone on PB? or am I missing anyone out?
@ManofKent2014
You make a very good point too. With the apparent collapse of the Lib Dem vote share will they have the dosh and, more importantly, the will to chase after potential gains like Maidstone. I dunno. I think they are stuffed as a political force if all they do is circle the wagons in May.
http://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/StatusOfRefugees.aspx
I was intrigued and to some extent gratified that the punters got it more right than the pollsters. I'm not sure why that was and as a regular punter on politics I wouldn't generally advocate dismissing the polls.
My guess is that the punters felt all along that economic realities would prevail over rhetoric and emotion. Certainly that's the way I felt, but not so so strongly that I was prepared to risk much of my betting bank. As a result I had to make do with modest gains, but at least I never risked dropping out of the game!