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Boris Johnson, a quitter not a fighter? – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson, a quitter not a fighter? – politicalbetting.com
I can see why Smarkets have put this market up, I can see why people might want to back either side. On the Yes side I can see a by election being triggered by Boris Johnson wanting to earn millions outside the glare of parliament and the register of members’ financial interests, wanting an elegant way of doing a chicken run to a safer seat, or scandal.
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NI goes into the general taxation pot, same as any other tax. If NI tax rise is reversed, then the funding will come from the general pot still.
The real reason NI was put up was to fund an Income Tax cut, transferring taxation from all income to only earnt incomes, so providing a tax cut for those not working for a living.
Cancelling Rishi's planned Income Tax cuts will fund reversing the NI tax hike he put in place.
It seems likely to me that he will cut and run, although I think his political career will be far from over. Unfortunately.
Betfair next prime minister
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9 Rishi Sunak 11%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
10 Rishi Sunak 10%
If he stays until the next GE he follows the example of Brown, Major and (more propitiously) Thatcher.
10.79 births > 9.07 deaths.
If births > deaths then population grows.
For population to fall then deaths must be greater than births.
House price ratios in the North now are higher than they were anywhere in the entire country, including London, a generation ago.
Some tussle, that.
The privacy argument does not stand up, imo. Boris was relaxed about others knowing about his Telegraph salary. And staying to be called back once Truss flops must be tempting. Against that, retirement would shut down the select committee investigations, and imo Boris planned to stand down in 2024 anyway.
In America that's even more true. The cost of "cable" TV in the USA has long been far more than even multiple subscriptions now cost.
Let everyone see That Wallpaper?
Quietly make it clear to Conservatives on the Privileges Committee that loyalty to the former PM shouldn't stop them investigating without fear?
Palsy-walsy Smarkets have blah, blah, blah… god this blogging lark is tedious sometimes… must remember to take down Sean’s “adult” link… when’s Smithson back from his holidays?… yawn… am I still pretending to be a “lawyer” this week?… that Smarkets market has zilch liquidity and is really just bollox… no one will notice as they’ll all be off spotting squirrels within 4 posts…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757.amp
Property prices in London were cheap a generation ago before it became a global city so that means little
Maybe you were looking for butchersapronranting.com instead?
In the States, ESPN/Disney are paying the lion’s share of a $10bn/year NFL deal, a decade into the future, in an attempt to shore up the cable-watching base. Amazon have got their foot in the NFL door though, it will be worth watching how that develops over time. In the UK, Sky’s share of the Premier League is around £3bn a season.
In theory, there's a lot of space for give with one hand/take with the other shenanigans. In practice, a lot of that is going to go on the increased costs of running government services.
He has been defenestrated as an out of touch chancer, patron to, and of scoundrels and is now considered a national security threat.
Property prices were normal a generation ago, that is what we should be getting back to now, by building enough houses. Your utter obsession with London doesn't answer the fact that prices are too high in the entire country and a crash relative to earnings is needed.
Best be careful of the wording of any particular bet BEFORE you puts your money down!
I'm not convinced that he will return. He may want to, but it might be something where the time is never quite right, or the opportunity doesn't present itself.
They will not be around in 10 years, not enough content.
Property prices were cheap a generation ago because we were a strike ridden, nationalised industry dominated economy and Canary Wharf had yet to have been built and London was not a global city. That is not going to change however many houses we build unless fewer foreigners want to come to London ir we further tighten immigration controls.
Outside of London and certainly north of Watford there is no housing problem of any significance, most locals can easily afford to but in Stoke, Bishop Auckland etc hence in part why they now have Tory MPs.
A crash just leaves to negative equity which as the 1992 to 1997 Tory government discovered is equally disastrous
As far as live sports is concerned, my general philosophy is that sport is for participation and not for observation, so I almost never observe it, and neither does anyone else in the household. My exception is cycling, and even there exclusively road racing. The Eurosport/GCN subscription satisfies 80% of my big screen needs. I’m too embarrassed to tell you what the other 20% consists of.
They have a chance to survive, if they're well-run, and produce films and shows that people want to watch. But I do expect there will be a shake-out at some point, and not all the streaming services will survive.
The black swan, would be the bet falling by the new PM calling an immediate general election.
Looks value still.
"A STREAKING Southend Utd fan has been banned from her favourite club". That was Ms Hollie Dance 10 years ago. And from nearly 20 years ago: "Southend: Road rage woman spared prison". And here's one from 2014: "Boy, four, suffers agonising burns after Boots pharmacy gave him ear drops for his eye infection". (Note that Boots admitted fault and apologised.) I wouldn't be surprised if she has had members of the state-sector "professional" classes up to a distance of about 20 miles from Southend nodding with contempt-filled "knowingness" about her for many years.
No consent = no union
Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent
Sinn Féin 36% (nc)
Fine Gael 22% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 17% (+2)
Greens 4% (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 4% (+1)
Social Democrats 4% (+1)
Labour 3% (-1)
Aontú 3% (nc)
others/independents 9% (-1)
Where Netflix has already won is they borrowed very, very cheaply. Something their rivals aren't going to be able to do.
Union.
many hot womenmuch money is available?I’m pretty sure that, having renounced citizenship, it’s renounced for life with no way back.
Just a quick thank you to @IshmaelZ for the following info:
"But then you switched to white. East India Company had its own flag, red n white stripes with Union flag top left".
Interesting, those stripes. Thirteen of them, too. What were those freemasons up to? :-) I am currently reading "The Devil’s Cloth: A History of Stripes & Striped Fabric" by Michel Pastoureau. (He's the guy who has also written histories of red and other colours.) Having checked in the index, I don't think he mentions the EIC. There's clearly a big semiotic difference between the tricolour - any tricolour - and the multiple use of only two colours...
They cannot support their lack of content because they're losing customers. They need original content to undo the content they're losing year on year to other services. They cannot keep up.
Not a chance they will be around in 10 years, probably get bought I would think.
Liz Truss not ruling out emergency payments, says Penny Mordaunt
Totally liability.
We’ll see. Personally think broadcast (I.e. live) TV is under more threat. Talking about you BBC.
24k majority.
We've already seen the start of the consolidation, HBO Max has been canned. It's now being "merged" into Discovery+ but all of the original streaming only content is being killed and essentially it will just be HBO programming and boxsets under a HBO tab within Discovery+, that is not going to compete with Netflix or Disney+ (the two likely survivors of the streaming wars).
The other big deal for Netflix is that in 5 years they will have 10 years worth of original content in the library, while I don't think it has as much value as most people, it will be a bigger pull factor. The biggest missing piece of the puzzle, IMO, is not having a theatrical window. That's where Disney+ has a huge leg up on Netflix. Their movies still go out and recoup production costs in cinemas and then 84 days later they put it on their streaming service which is pure profit for bringing in new subscribers.
Doesn't mean he won't do it because he's very fucking stupid, but he'd be better to wait and see who's retiring at the next election to try and pick up a safe seat elsewhere. John Howell, his successor in Henley, is a possibility, as is Geoffrey Clifton-Brown. Or indeed, Dorries herself would have been.
Whether the fact he was once a dual national would affect that is as you note rather unclear but I think there would be sufficient doubt to eliminate him from consideration.
Besides 'I was a US citizen, gave it up to reduce my taxes and got it back because I'm a stupid egomaniac who wants to be president' isn't a great political narrative.
Either PM Truss wins in 2024, in which case Boris is a flaky backbencher, or Starmer becomes PM and Boris runs for LotO with little hope of a proper comeback until 2028ish.
Both of those look far too much like hard work. If BoJo wants to try for Operation Lazarus, he needs to be an MP for the next eighteen months or so.
A decade ago I would not have thought Trump had a great political narrative either, but these days the more outlandish and above the rules you can be, the better.
While he also hailed Trump and the Trumpite candidates who won their primaries last week
It saves him the personal embarrassment of fighting a seat and losing I guess, but that's it.