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Could Tory members tell us when they get their packs? – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Disagree, this is like Clinton's deplorables, Romney's 47% or May's dementia tax. It won't matter as he's going to lose to Truss not Starmer mind.
    Let's see if it gets traction outside the Staggers
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324
    edited August 2022
    eek said:

    Given that video of Rishi below - the Tory party has little choice but to choice from 2 people both of whom will have serious problems retaining their Redwall / northern seats.
    Sunak has one of the safest seats in the country.

    Decent prospects for being elected leader of the 100 seat Tory rump after the next general election...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Nigelb said:

    Sunak has one of the safest seats in the country.
    As does Truss of course
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,240
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes, which is why I pay no attention to any claim made by anyone later than 2021. There's quite a lot from before then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Regiment
    They were a proscribed US terrorist group ffs. Their rehabilitation into frightfully decent chaps really is laughable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Meanwhile, the French….

    “French scientist Etienne Klein apologises after 'James Webb Telescope' image revealed as slice of chorizo”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-05/french-scientist-apologises-for-chorizo-star-joke/101305334
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061

    That's fair; the 3-4 week section of the Met Office LRF tends to be rather cagey. I didn't read that section as 'drought over' though - we'd need several weeks of rain for that. (I was actually posting this to support your concern about drought.)

    Still, at least we won't be moaning about a 'wash-out summer' this year, eh?
    The Met Office should publish its LRF in quatrains. Like Nostradamus. With the same element of gnomic vagueness as to whether they were right or not.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    She's a Reaganite: "It's morning in Britain."

    Truss is an evolution ofJohnson. He believed in nothing but himself, Truss believes passionately in anything and everything that will advance her career.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    They were a proscribed US terrorist group ffs. Their rehabilitation into frightfully decent chaps is laughable.
    People want to be careful with naked flames, with the number of straw men in this argument. Who ever said they were decent chaps?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061

    This is also relevant to the will she / won't she thing. We know Truss wants an emergency budget;


    Playbook @politico scoop that Truss Budget could take place on Wed 21 Sept. Means splitting statement from most of 4 day debate and votes which will fall other side of recess. Permissible but unusual. Gives OBR longer BUT means Budget is “live” as parli issue for 4 weeks

    https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1555462809156288514?t=sJo8A8nlswxIlEHV_Z-ubQ&s=19

    That pushes an early election back to late November, I think. Which is brave without the Parliamentary constipation of 2019.

    Just when the recession kicks in. A great backdrop to an election, not.

    Not happening.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324

    They were a proscribed US terrorist group ffs. Their rehabilitation into frightfully decent chaps really is laughable.
    That's a bit like saying that Ukraine was a corrupt oligarchy, and calling them a democracy is laughable.

    The current status of Azov is disputed. There have been reforms; how significant they are is for now unknowable.
    Only you are using "frightfully decent chaps".

    What is known is that Russia recently murdered scores they were holding as POWs.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,937
    Nigelb said:

    Sunak has one of the safest seats in the country.

    Decent prospects for being elected leader of the 100 seat Tory rump after the next general election...
    Third biggest party behind Starmers' Labour on 180 seats and Boris' Lets all have a Party Party which won the election on a platform of connecting each major city in the country with both bridges and tunnels, one mistress per year available for all, and all our taxes to be paid for by the French.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,240

    But Nick, have you seen the vast numbers of hospitals, medical practices, schools, universities and other civilian infrastructure that Russia is hitting not just in the immediate battle areas, but all over Ukraine? I very much doubt that all of these were in use by the Ukrainian military in any meaningful manner.

    In which case, there is a blanket policy in Russia to denude Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

    You could try arguing against that, except it's also what Russia did in Syria and Chechnya. Target the hospitals. Target the schools.
    I don't know about Chechnya, but in Syria it was a frequent technique of the insurgent forces to base themselves in Mosques, Schools and Hospitals. Why wouldn't you? You could avoid being hit at all, and if you do get hit, it's a humanitarian catastrophe and a propaganda victory. Your alternative theory is somewhat suspect, given that Russia was on the side of the existing Syrian regime, who were looking to recover that territory and presumably therefore limit the damage to such facilities.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    Just when the recession kicks in. A great backdrop to an election, not.

    Not happening.
    Interesting everyone is assuming this BoE forecast is correct (unlike all its predecessors). Amusingly they've revised their unemployment forecasts up despite the latest actuals being better than their previous guess.

    As it stands the BoE forecast is a massively outlyer prediction from a body with a very weak track record (and a depressingly strong motive to distract from its own failings).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Ukraine are entitled to base military installations wherever they think doing so will be the most militarily effective and easily defensible. If there are civilians in the same place then they have a responsibility to move them out of harms way as much as possible.

    That is very different to implications that military installations are placed where they are - not because that is the best place for them - but because of the propaganda value in them being subsequently targeted. And Ukraine have far far more leeway to push the boundaries on all of this than Russia do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324

    I don't know about Chechnya, but in Syria it was a frequent technique of the insurgent forces to base themselves in Mosques, Schools and Hospitals. Why wouldn't you? You could avoid being hit at all, and if you do get hit, it's a humanitarian catastrophe and a propaganda victory. Your alternative theory is somewhat suspect, given that Russia was on the side of the existing Syrian regime, who were looking to recover that territory and presumably therefore limit the damage to such facilities.
    Awfully careless of them to level entire cities, then.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    I don't know about Chechnya, but in Syria it was a frequent technique of the insurgent forces to base themselves in Mosques, Schools and Hospitals. Why wouldn't you? You could avoid being hit at all, and if you do get hit, it's a humanitarian catastrophe and a propaganda victory. Your alternative theory is somewhat suspect, given that Russia was on the side of the existing Syrian regime, who were looking to recover that territory and presumably therefore limit the damage to such facilities.
    'Limit the damage'

    Grozny? Aleppo? I don't think limiting the damage was much of a concern of their's.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994

    When the moon hits your eye
    Like a slice of chorizo on a big pizza pie
    That’s actually a good joke. Humourless twits

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,240
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Awfully careless of them to level entire cities, then.

    Very much so, but I don't think regime-supporting Syrians would be joining up to fight for Russia in Ukraine (which by the way I do not condone), if they felt that Russia had been targetting civilian infrastructure deliberately and unecessarily. That their way of gaining ground is brutal and destructive, I don't think anyone disputes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,634

    Just when the recession kicks in. A great backdrop to an election, not.

    Not happening.
    With a nearly 80 seat majority she really should be looking at some rigerous voter suppression tactics in place for a late GE.

    She doesn't want to drop the ball as any incoming government is going to be looking at ditching FPTP, which will be a major disadvantage going forward for the Conservatives.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324
    Another potential (very big) win for the Democrats:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/larry_levitt/status/1555367990408781826
    It looks like Democrats are on their way to giving the government the authority to negotiate the prices of certain drugs in Medicare and enhancing ACA affordability.

    This would be the biggest health reform since passage of the ACA itself over 12 years ago.


    (Note it was the Republicans who banned Medicare from negotiating prices, all the way back in 2003.)
  • Interesting to share the question but not share the answer. She actually answered that question really well I thought, if you are interested in actually listening and not going for cheap Burley-style gotchas.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,417

    Just when the recession kicks in. A great backdrop to an election, not.

    Not happening.
    Best to hold an election as the recession kicks in rather than half way through it...

  • eekeek Posts: 29,417

    This thread has been found out and replaced.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,240

    'Limit the damage'

    Grozny? Aleppo? I don't think limiting the damage was much of a concern of their's.
    I know nothing about Grozny. But the point about Syria is one of intention.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,902

    I don't know about Chechnya, but in Syria it was a frequent technique of the insurgent forces to base themselves in Mosques, Schools and Hospitals. Why wouldn't you? You could avoid being hit at all, and if you do get hit, it's a humanitarian catastrophe and a propaganda victory. Your alternative theory is somewhat suspect, given that Russia was on the side of the existing Syrian regime, who were looking to recover that territory and presumably therefore limit the damage to such facilities.
    "but in Syria it was a frequent technique of the insurgent forces to base themselves in Mosques, Schools and Hospitals."

    What are your sources for that claim? Especially given your history of accepting Russia's propaganda hook, line and sinker?
This discussion has been closed.