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YouGov CON member’s poll has Truss extending lead – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A final thought on Jack Monroe

    This is the blogpost she wrote which seems to have broken the dam of criticism


    https://cookingonabootstrap.com/2022/07/31/the-curse-of-the-poverty-hangover-ten-years-on/


    I can see why it has angered people. The self pity is fantastical. This one line about her having to move into a hovel made me laugh out loud (I'm sorry)

    "Having no stairs will be good for my arthritic bones"

    And yet, and yet. It is REALLY well written. She can REALLY write. If she's not making a living from her writing she should sack her agent and editor and get ones that will make her money, because she could easily earn it and then she wouldn't be destitute, or have to pretend she's destitute (whatever it is). And then she wouldn't be in a Twitter-storm

    Twitter followers don't - in themselves - generate income. And Guardian articles don't make much in the way of moolah.

    Patreon, I'm sure, generates her some income: a thousand here, a thousand there. But the stats on the number of people who make more than a couple of thousand a year from it are telling... it's not many.

    Her books will make her some money. But when did she last publish one? Old royalties arrive - particularly thanks to Kindle. But I know that websites don't make much either.

    I don't know what her income is, but I could well believe it was 2k/month...

    But 2k a month is not nothing, especially as she seems to spend almost nothing on food. How fancy is her apartment that it takes 90+% of her income?

    Or is the whole thing an elaborate hoax, and she's rolling in it?
    She’s definitely not poor. In one of her social media posts she talks about being unable to buy the house she REALLY wants as it is “£800k” and she can “only afford £500k”

    So she has a deposit and an ongoing income for a mortgage. Unsurprisingly, as selling 100k books means a LOT of money when all the additionals roll in

    And good luck to her! She’s a talented writer and good on tv and she - I believe - genuinely means well

    My guess is that she is a bit of a mess, a drinker (she mentions this) her life is quite chaotic - so I’m rather sympathetic. Her problem is maybe that she’s sold herself as a dirt poor working class cook eating scraps and she really is not that any more but she has to keep pretending - so she’s ended up tangled in her own contradictions

    She should start afresh and be a good talented
    cook and writer. Cease the self pitying and the begging letters which annoy people
    90K books says Bookseller.

    But that is over 8 years since her debut.

    That’s raw book sales. There will be paperback rights and foreign sales and media spin offs and the rest

    And again, with 500,000 Twitter followers something is going very wrong with her marketing if she isn’t minting it

    I was told recently - by an expert - that the threshold of social followers at which point you can start to make money as an influencer is 20,000

    She has more than twenty times that. Half a million is massive. Tv and radio will be yearning to have you on air - and paying you handsomely for it. Quite peculiar is she really is skint (I doubt it)
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    24m
    Sunak was never going to beat Truss with the members. He was never going to get close to beating Truss with the members. His role in this contest has been to keep any candidate out of the final two that might have given Truss a problem.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico

    ===

    Eh? Is he saying the big MP vote Sunak got was just a way of fixing the final two?

    Sounds like Lilico lapsing into a spasm of conspiratorial madness, which, let's be fair, he is known for doing
    Well if there has been a conspiracy I will be betting a bucket of popcorn that Gove is behind the plan.
    No one can herd cats that well. Gove is clever but he's not the Wizard Merlin
    Can you feel a little Gove?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    rottenborough asked : "If Putin's little evil elves were planning to hack the tory vote which candidate would they favour?"

    Perhaps both candidates. In 2016 in the United States, Putin's "evil elves" were able to inspire two conflicting demonstrations at least once. Same place, same time.

    And the elves have been backing both far left and, more recently, far right, groups, here in the US for some time.

    (On a related subject, Frank Booth is quite right to say that on-line voting is "a gift for conspiracy theorists". I don't doubt that, in principle, it can be made as secure as mail ballots, maybe even as secure as in-person voting, but I see no way to persuade significant portions of the voting public that it is secure here in the US and, probably, in the UK.)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited August 2022

    rottenborough asked : "If Putin's little evil elves were planning to hack the tory vote which candidate would they favour?"

    Perhaps both candidates. In 2016 in the United States, Putin's "evil elves" were able to inspire two conflicting demonstrations at least once. Same place, same time.

    And the elves have been backing both far left and, more recently, far right, groups, here in the US for some time.

    (On a related subject, Frank Booth is quite right to say that on-line voting is "a gift for conspiracy theorists". I don't doubt that, in principle, it can be made as secure as mail ballots, maybe even as secure as in-person voting, but I see no way to persuade significant portions of the voting public that it is secure here in the US and, probably, in the UK.)

    In principle, yes. In practice, no.

    I expect most will have seen this one...
    https://xkcd.com/2030/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited August 2022
    "voting more than once in the ongoing leadership contest will be treated as "an offence" and warns that any member who is found to have voted multiple times will "have their party membership withdrawn"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-vote-delayed-due-to-security-fears-12664467

    They were encouraging members to do this just a couple of days ago.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    KANSAS ABORTION:

    PredictIt now has 91% chance change fails (ie 91% chance vote to keep all abortion rights).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Kansas abortion - 63,000 votes counted

    Yes 35
    No 65
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    edited August 2022
    MikeL said:

    Kansas abortion - 63,000 votes counted

    Yes 35
    No 65

    Right-to-lifers respind by promising to picket two out of every three Kansas homes.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    edited August 2022
    MikeL said:

    KANSAS ABORTION:

    PredictIt now has 91% chance change fails (ie 91% chance vote to keep all abortion rights).

    I am honestly amazed that this is likely to be rejected in *Kansas* of all places.

    Shows just how much Republicans are out of step with the views of average American voters, when it comes to abortion. Could be an indicator that Dems fare less worse than expected in the midterms.
  • Kansas Abortion Referendum with estimated 24% of vote reported

    Answer Votes Pct.
    No 108,349 63.8%
    Yes 61,449 36.2%
    Total reported 169,798

    Nate Cohn - It’s still early in the count for the Kansas abortion referendum, where the “no” vote (which would maintain abortion rights) is ahead. Most of the initial returns are from relatively Democratic areas, and all are early and absentee votes. Registered Democrats were 50 percent likelier to vote early or absentee than registered Republicans.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Kansas PredictIt:

    Yes - 2% chance
    No - 98% chance
  • vik said:

    MikeL said:

    KANSAS ABORTION:

    PredictIt now has 91% chance change fails (ie 91% chance vote to keep all abortion rights).

    I am honestly amazed that this is likely to be rejected in *Kansas* of all places.
    Vote is likely to narrow as more rural counties report, and ballots cast in person on Primary Day are counted. But certainly does appear that the proposed amendment to state constitution will fail.

    Reckon this is a sign that pro-choice voters have been mobilized (turnout way up in Kansas for non-presidential year primary) AND that plenty of folks in the great Sunflower State who are broadly opposed to abortion are NOT willing to ban it outright.
  • MikeL said:

    Kansas PredictIt:

    Yes - 2% chance
    No - 98% chance

    This is betting market, correct?
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨

    Voting for the next Prime Minister has been delayed after GCHQ warned cyber hackers could change people’s ballots

    Tory HQ forced to scrap plans to let members switch votes later in race over security fears. Means ballots still not sent out
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/02/tory-leadership-voting-delayed-gchq-hacking-warning/

    Good.

    Online voting is a terrible idea, being able to change your vote . . . even worse. What "genius" thought that was a good idea?

    There's a good reason to stick with pen and paper for voting.

    https://xkcd.com/2030/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    MikeL said:

    Kansas PredictIt:

    Yes - 2% chance
    No - 98% chance

    This is betting market, correct?
    Yes.

    Also 93% chance No wins by over 8%.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections
  • Hustings in Wales today.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited August 2022
    Most of Johnson County just reported - 72% No - contains most of the part of Kansas City which is in state of Kansas.

    (Most of Kansas City is in state of Missouri).

    Overall now:

    Yes 34
    No 66

    (40% counted)
  • Boris is going on holiday today. Presumably waiting five weeks until his successor is named sounded too much like hard work.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-downing-street-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-liz-truss-b1016304.html

    The Prime Minister is away. The Foreign Secretary is campaigning for the leadership. Let's hope China doesn't kick off while Nadine Dorries is running the country.
  • In Michigan, 3rd District GOP primary for Congress currently has incumbent Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump, trailing challenger John Gibbs, by 47% versus 53%.

    However, note that Gibbs has 58% of the vote in Ottawa County, which has just estimated 6k left to count, while Meijer has 57% in Kent County (Grand Rapids) with estimated 129k remaining. A third county, with estimated 12k votes, has yet to report any numbers.

    Before Kent Co reported any numbers, with just Ottawa Co on the board, Predictit was saying that Gibbs had over 90% chance; now it says 67% chance for Meijer.

    Not sure I'd put much stock in Predictit numbers tonight. Though does look like the No is maintaining a solid lead of 66% over 34% for Yes, with estimated 46% of vote reported.
  • MikeL said:

    Most of Johnson County just reported - 72% No - contains most of the part of Kansas City which is in state of Kansas.

    (Most of Kansas City is in state of Missouri).

    Overall now:

    Yes 34
    No 66

    (40% counted)

    Kansas City, Kansas is in Wyandotte County, not Johnson, which is south of KC, Kansas and west (across state line) from Kansas City, Missouri.

    Johnson Co is more populous these days than Wyandotte, by a long shot.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    MikeL said:

    Most of Johnson County just reported - 72% No - contains most of the part of Kansas City which is in state of Kansas.

    (Most of Kansas City is in state of Missouri).

    Overall now:

    Yes 34
    No 66

    (40% counted)

    Kansas City, Kansas is in Wyandotte County, not Johnson, which is south of KC, Kansas and west (across state line) from Kansas City, Missouri.

    Johnson Co is more populous these days than Wyandotte, by a long shot.

    I know - my point was vast majority of suburbs are in Johnson - it's solid built up area way into Johnson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    pm215 said:

    How do you even define the ‘working class’? I work for an employer full time, but my salary is 50K. My wifes is around 40K. Are we working class?

    It's complicated.

    I've never understood the obsession with class in this country.

    Using my rough and ready calculator, were your parents professionals?

    Did you go to a nice school?
    Mmm, personally I think there's a strong cultural component to class definitions. 'Working class' correlates with 'lower income' and 'manual/unskilled labour jobs' but isn't defined by those things. (Among other things, if we want to talk about policies to benefit those on lower incomes, we should just say that: much clearer and better defined and doesn't get tangled up in the culture stuff.)

    I also like the Grayson Perry question for helping define 'middle class': do you have a cafetiere? Obviously this is hardly a reliable indicator, but I think it does highlight that our class distinctions are a bundle of cultural signifiers.
    What about grinding your own coffee beans? Does that earn the ‘upper’ middle class subdivision?

    (Cafetières are not very good. You really need a quality coffee maker.)
    I have always thought that the upper middle class designation was for those who live, and speak, like those from the upper class, just aren't as grand/well connected. Senior solicitors/medical consultants/politicians/civil servants/military could be upper middle class.
    I would posit that to be upper middle class you’d have to be born and brought up in a middle class family; if your parents are working class you’d have to do exceptionally well to jump straight to upper middle.

    But what would I know? The British class system is remarkable in that we all understand it instinctively but struggle to explain it to a foreigner (or even each other)
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    Here's a brief explanation: There is a Kansas City metropolitan area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_metropolitan_area
    The largest city in the area is Kansas City, Missouri; the second largest is Kansas City, Kansas. So, when you say "Kansas City", you may mean the metropolitan area, the city in Missouri, or the city in Kansas. (The latter is the important one in this abortion referendum.)

    (As everyone familiar with the musical knows, "Everything is up to date in Kansas City". All three of them, I presume.)

    I can't say I have studied the politics of the state of Kansas closely, but I have sometimes thought that you could understand it best if you thought there were three factions in the state, about equal in size: Democrats, moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans.
  • AP just called Missouri Republican primary for governor for Eric Schmidt, pick of Show Me State's GOP establishment, with quasi-endorsement from Trump. Disgraced (to put it mildly) former Gov Eric Greitens is distant 3rd place. Schmidt also beats candidate endorsed by Josh "Hawlin' Ass" Hawley.

    Trump actually posted a "Truth" endorsing "Eric" which was touted by both Schmidt and Greitens, who was 45's first choice but he waffled due to sheer depth of the dirt covering the rotting remains of the former Gov's political carcass.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    Kansas City Kansas is actually the third largest in the metropolitcan area; Overland Park, Kansas is the second largest.

    Sorry about that.
  • Here's a brief explanation: There is a Kansas City metropolitan area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_metropolitan_area
    The largest city in the area is Kansas City, Missouri; the second largest is Kansas City, Kansas. So, when you say "Kansas City", you may mean the metropolitan area, the city in Missouri, or the city in Kansas. (The latter is the important one in this abortion referendum.)

    (As everyone familiar with the musical knows, "Everything is up to date in Kansas City". All three of them, I presume.)

    I can't say I have studied the politics of the state of Kansas closely, but I have sometimes thought that you could understand it best if you thought there were three factions in the state, about equal in size: Democrats, moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans.

    Re: last paragraph, pretty much size of things, which explains why incumbent gov is a Democrat.

    As for Kansas City, Kansas, the Wynadotte County one ("old" KC, Kansas if you like) in old days it had a strong Croatian component, clustered near the stockyards. Whereas slaughterhouse district of KC, Missouri was heavily Hibernian, the epicenter of the Prendergast machine, which dominated politics in THAT KC along with the whole freaking state of Missouri.

    As for today's referendum, with 58% reported No vote is currently 63.8%. Definite east (No) versus west (Yes) split, also big county (No) versus small county (Yes).
  • Kansas City Kansas is actually the third largest in the metropolitcan area; Overland Park, Kansas is the second largest.

    Sorry about that.

    Kansas City Here I Come - Wilbert Harrison

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCaCX3yOUN8
  • AP has called Kansas Abortion Referendum a victory for No.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    AP has called Kansas Abortion Referendum a victory for No.

    It looks like being a 60:40 for 'no', which is absolutely extraordinary.

    There are only about 8 or 9 states on the Pew polling which are more anti-abortion than Kansas:

    West Virginia
    Arkansas
    Kentucky
    Alabama
    Utah
    Mississippi
    Indiana
    Louisiana
    and
    Tennessee

    On the basis of today's result, it's hard to see how referendums outside of Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and Utah would be likely victories for the anti abortionists.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A final thought on Jack Monroe

    This is the blogpost she wrote which seems to have broken the dam of criticism


    https://cookingonabootstrap.com/2022/07/31/the-curse-of-the-poverty-hangover-ten-years-on/


    I can see why it has angered people. The self pity is fantastical. This one line about her having to move into a hovel made me laugh out loud (I'm sorry)

    "Having no stairs will be good for my arthritic bones"

    And yet, and yet. It is REALLY well written. She can REALLY write. If she's not making a living from her writing she should sack her agent and editor and get ones that will make her money, because she could easily earn it and then she wouldn't be destitute, or have to pretend she's destitute (whatever it is). And then she wouldn't be in a Twitter-storm

    Twitter followers don't - in themselves - generate income. And Guardian articles don't make much in the way of moolah.

    Patreon, I'm sure, generates her some income: a thousand here, a thousand there. But the stats on the number of people who make more than a couple of thousand a year from it are telling... it's not many.

    Her books will make her some money. But when did she last publish one? Old royalties arrive - particularly thanks to Kindle. But I know that websites don't make much either.

    I don't know what her income is, but I could well believe it was 2k/month...

    But 2k a month is not nothing, especially as she seems to spend almost nothing on food. How fancy is her apartment that it takes 90+% of her income?

    Or is the whole thing an elaborate hoax, and she's rolling in it?
    She’s definitely not poor. In one of her social media posts she talks about being unable to buy the house she REALLY wants as it is “£800k” and she can “only afford £500k”

    So she has a deposit and an ongoing income for a mortgage. Unsurprisingly, as selling 100k books means a LOT of money when all the additionals roll in

    And good luck to her! She’s a talented writer and good on tv and she - I believe - genuinely means well

    My guess is that she is a bit of a mess, a drinker (she mentions this) her life is quite chaotic - so I’m rather sympathetic. Her problem is maybe that she’s sold herself as a dirt poor working class cook eating scraps and she really is not that any more but she has to keep pretending - so she’s ended up tangled in her own contradictions

    She should start afresh and be a good talented
    cook and writer. Cease the self pitying and the begging letters which annoy people

    I just read this blog. She is 34 and comes across as someone who just needs to sort her life out; ie stop buying unnecessary things, start saving up money, buy a flat. If she doesn't want to do that then fine, that's her choice, but the "poverty" and "self pity" claims won't go down well with people.
  • rcs1000 said:

    AP has called Kansas Abortion Referendum a victory for No.

    It looks like being a 60:40 for 'no', which is absolutely extraordinary.

    There are only about 8 or 9 states on the Pew polling which are more anti-abortion than Kansas:

    West Virginia
    Arkansas
    Kentucky
    Alabama
    Utah
    Mississippi
    Indiana
    Louisiana
    and
    Tennessee

    On the basis of today's result, it's hard to see how referendums outside of Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and Utah would be likely victories for the anti abortionists.
    As others have noted, abortion laws in Kansas allow them uo to 20 weeks (and more, depending on the circumstnaces.) That the majority of voters won't even consider reducing this shoild give the legislature paiuse.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    It looks to me as if the two Washington state Republican House members who voted against Trump, Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse. will survive the "top-two" primary; https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/federal-all.html

    And, as of now, their Trump-endorsed opponents, Joe Kent and Loren Culp, are both in third place.

    (Herrera Beutler's likely Democratic oponent is named: "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. I count three separate ethnicities in that one name.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    What is the scope for Pro Choice supporters to force referendums in states which have banned abortion?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited August 2022
    Michigan District 3:

    Gibbs 51.3
    Meijer 48.6

    92% counted
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Kansas's constitutional amendment vote is the single most important result of the 2022 primary cycle. Simply: right now the defenders of the abortion status quo are the ones who are energized.

    Let me put this context for a second. If you add up all the votes in the Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial elections, you get 660k votes. The number of people who voted in the abortion referendum is 820k. And we're still only 87% reported.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
    Paper ballots are best.

    The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    rcs1000 asked: "The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?"

    Optical scanners: The are reasonably fast, and if necessary can be supplemented by, and checked by, hand counts. The software to run them should be open source. And, if combined with in-person voting, they can allow voters to check their ballots in secret, before depositing them.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    I see the Tory leadership voting process has blown up quite spectacularly. Who could have predicted that?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,439
    Andy_JS said:

    If you can only afford a £500k house you're certainly not badly off. Someone would have to live in a pretty big bubble to believe so.

    Unfortunately many of us want to live in London which does have an extremely big housing bubble.

    It is not unusual for renters in London to be relatively well off but miss the security of owning your home. We should be allowed to write about it and complain about how it impacts us. And the blog post is not suggesting being badly off at all.

    "No, I’m not ‘poor’ any more. Nor do I pretend to be. I work, I get paid, I have some nice things, I’m managing"
    "have been paying 94% of my income on the rent and bills every month ever since"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Andy_JS said:

    If you can only afford a £500k house you're certainly not badly off. Someone would have to live in a pretty big bubble to believe so.

    And she’s self-employed with rather variable income, so is likely being asked for £125k-£150k as a cash deposit by the bank.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
    Paper ballots are best.

    The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?
    Surely the complexity of the electoral process has much to do with that? FPTP just requires piles of ballots to be made for each candidate, which can then be checked through. Some constituencies manage to count tens of thousands of votes in a few hours.

    Other systems. such as STV, are much more complex and will require additional stages and steps to validate and organise the counts. The more complex the voting system, the more difficult the counting process?

    (Note: this is not a recommendation for FPTP tor electronic voting...)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
    Paper ballots are best.

    The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?
    The UK general election seems to do a pretty good job of it, we have the final result in more than 90% of seats by the morning afterwards. Hell, some places like Sunderland pride themselves on how quickly they can count the votes.

    The US problems IMHO, stem from voting for 20 different things on the same day, and rules around postal ballots that sees them trickling in for a week or more after polling day. Not helped by a deliberate delay of two months between the election and the elected taking office, so there’s no sense of urgency anywhere in the system.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
    Paper ballots are best.

    The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?
    The UK general election seems to do a pretty good job of it, we have the final result in more than 90% of seats by the morning afterwards. Hell, some places like Sunderland pride themselves on how quickly they can count the votes.

    The US problems IMHO, stem from voting for 20 different things on the same day, and rules around postal ballots that sees them trickling in for a week or more after polling day. Not helped by a deliberate delay of two months between the election and the elected taking office, so there’s no sense of urgency anywhere in the system.
    The postal ballot issue is a minor one - very few elections aren't decided on election night. Much bigger is the issue that there are often a dozen (or more) things to vote on.

    There might seven or eight ballot propositions chicken, sheriffs, assemblymen, a mayor, a senator, a state senator, a congressman and a presidential candidate.

    All on the same day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Andy_JS said:

    If you can only afford a £500k house you're certainly not badly off. Someone would have to live in a pretty big bubble to believe so.

    Unfortunately many of us want to live in London which does have an extremely big housing bubble.

    It is not unusual for renters in London to be relatively well off but miss the security of owning your home. We should be allowed to write about it and complain about how it impacts us. And the blog post is not suggesting being badly off at all.

    "No, I’m not ‘poor’ any more. Nor do I pretend to be. I work, I get paid, I have some nice things, I’m managing"
    "have been paying 94% of my income on the rent and bills every month ever since"
    The fact that so many want to live in London would suggest that it isn't a bubble.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,553
    This is a good article, and I agree with the conclusion.
    Have we given Ukraine sufficient weapons ?

    Putin’s entire Ukraine invasion hinges on the coming Battle of Kherson

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-entire-ukraine-invasion-hinges-on-the-coming-battle-of-kherson/
    …. Millions of Ukrainians are currently living under Russian occupation where they face the daily prospect of war crimes including abductions, executions and forced deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors uncovered in areas of northern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation, nobody is under any illusions over the scale of the atrocities currently taking place throughout the occupied south. Putin has made clear that he is waging a war of annihilation to destroy Ukraine. Every single extra day of occupation means more misery and suffering.

    Preparations are also underway to hold Crimea-style referendums in occupied southern Ukraine. Russia aims to repeat the rigged vote staged during the spring 2014 military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula in order to create a veneer of legitimacy for the subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s southern regions. While a fake ballot would do little to convince international audiences or change military realities, it could significantly worsen the plight of local residents while enabling Moscow to tighten its administrative grip on the occupied regions.

    Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming offensive. Reports are growing of large Russian troop concentrations being redeployed from the current main theater of operations in eastern Ukraine to the southern front. While exact numbers are difficult to confirm, the size of these redeployments indicates that Russia may be planning to launch an offensive of its own on the Kherson front. The longer Ukraine delays, the more militarily challenging an offensive will become….

    … At the same time, Putin shows no signs of downscaling his war aims. On the contrary, Kremlin officials now openly talk of seizing more Ukrainian territory and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. In June, the Russian dictator compared his invasion of Ukraine to Peter the Great’s eighteenth century imperial conquests and declared that he was on an historic mission to “reclaim” Russian lands. The loss of Kherson would represent a crushing blow to these imperial ambitions while also exposing the diminished reality behind Russia’s continued claims to military superpower status.

    The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Nigelb said:

    This is a good article, and I agree with the conclusion.
    Have we given Ukraine sufficient weapons ?

    Putin’s entire Ukraine invasion hinges on the coming Battle of Kherson

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-entire-ukraine-invasion-hinges-on-the-coming-battle-of-kherson/
    …. Millions of Ukrainians are currently living under Russian occupation where they face the daily prospect of war crimes including abductions, executions and forced deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors uncovered in areas of northern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation, nobody is under any illusions over the scale of the atrocities currently taking place throughout the occupied south. Putin has made clear that he is waging a war of annihilation to destroy Ukraine. Every single extra day of occupation means more misery and suffering.

    Preparations are also underway to hold Crimea-style referendums in occupied southern Ukraine. Russia aims to repeat the rigged vote staged during the spring 2014 military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula in order to create a veneer of legitimacy for the subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s southern regions. While a fake ballot would do little to convince international audiences or change military realities, it could significantly worsen the plight of local residents while enabling Moscow to tighten its administrative grip on the occupied regions.

    Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming offensive. Reports are growing of large Russian troop concentrations being redeployed from the current main theater of operations in eastern Ukraine to the southern front. While exact numbers are difficult to confirm, the size of these redeployments indicates that Russia may be planning to launch an offensive of its own on the Kherson front. The longer Ukraine delays, the more militarily challenging an offensive will become….

    … At the same time, Putin shows no signs of downscaling his war aims. On the contrary, Kremlin officials now openly talk of seizing more Ukrainian territory and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. In June, the Russian dictator compared his invasion of Ukraine to Peter the Great’s eighteenth century imperial conquests and declared that he was on an historic mission to “reclaim” Russian lands. The loss of Kherson would represent a crushing blow to these imperial ambitions while also exposing the diminished reality behind Russia’s continued claims to military superpower status.

    The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire.

    That's a good article.

    "A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country."

    Yesterday Dmitry Medvedev posted, and then deleted, an article saying Georgia and Kazakhstan are next. His excuse that he was 'hacked' doesn't ring true for me. Besides, it is just one of many comments from the top of the regime, including Putin himself. that their aim is to gain more than Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,553
    President Zelensky approved same-sex partnerships in Ukraine!

    In his official response to a public petition demanding the legalization of same-sex marriages, Zelensky reported that the government is already working out options for the registration of civil partnerships in 🇺🇦

    https://twitter.com/zaborona_media/status/1554507447179558912
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Alpine announce Piastri as Alonso's replacement. Piastri announces he won't be driving for them.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.oscar-piastri-insists-i-will-not-be-driving-for-alpine-next-year-after-team.2IzNJp1wi79WZzmphZKSsB.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,553
    edited August 2022
    A zoomable global map of the birthplace of (not quite every) famous person in the world.
    https://tjukanovt.github.io/notable-people

    That’s my day wasted. :smile:

    Note the geographical proximity - and similarly bonded status - of Jesus, St. Paul, and Keane Reeves.
  • Betfair next prime minister
    1.1 Liz Truss 91%
    11 Rishi Sunak 9%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11 Rishi Sunak 9%

    A slight swing back:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.6 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    This is a good article, and I agree with the conclusion.
    Have we given Ukraine sufficient weapons ?

    Putin’s entire Ukraine invasion hinges on the coming Battle of Kherson

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-entire-ukraine-invasion-hinges-on-the-coming-battle-of-kherson/

    A good piece indeed. Some of us have been saying for a couple of weeks now, that the battle for Kherson is the key to this war. Pushing back the invaders to the East of the Deniper, makes the life of the defenders so much easier.

    The Russian heavy supply lines have now been taken out - so they’re down to using the river, air drops, or maybe cars across one of the damaged bridges. There’s a window of a couple of weeks, for a large offensive to succeed against an enemy starved of ammunition and supplies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Nigelb said:

    A zoomable global map of the birthplace of (not quite every) famous person in the world.
    https://tjukanovt.github.io/notable-people

    That’s my day wasted. :smile:

    Note the geographical proximity - and similarly bonded status - of Jesus, St. Paul, and Keane Reeves.

    I saw that the other day. Our local heroes below. My dad went to primary school with Peter Gabriel.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,553
    I think this story is being underplayed because few are in a position to do independent reporting to adjudicate the competing narratives.

    So let's be clear: It's virtually certain that the Russians incinerated a building full of POWs, burning them alive

    https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1554483398642745345
  • Heathrow security was very quick this morning and so far flight has not been delayed
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Heathrow security was very quick this morning and so far flight has not been delayed

    Sounds good! Off anywhere nice?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Alpine announce Piastri as Alonso's replacement. Piastri announces he won't be driving for them.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.oscar-piastri-insists-i-will-not-be-driving-for-alpine-next-year-after-team.2IzNJp1wi79WZzmphZKSsB.html

    Rumour has it mclaren have 3 drivers under contract for 2023 and Ricardo isn’t rushing to accept a payoff.

    But it’s clear that Alpine didn’t confirm their option with Piastri by the July 31st deadline..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Nigelb said:

    This is a good article, and I agree with the conclusion.
    Have we given Ukraine sufficient weapons ?

    Putin’s entire Ukraine invasion hinges on the coming Battle of Kherson

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-entire-ukraine-invasion-hinges-on-the-coming-battle-of-kherson/
    …. Millions of Ukrainians are currently living under Russian occupation where they face the daily prospect of war crimes including abductions, executions and forced deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors uncovered in areas of northern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation, nobody is under any illusions over the scale of the atrocities currently taking place throughout the occupied south. Putin has made clear that he is waging a war of annihilation to destroy Ukraine. Every single extra day of occupation means more misery and suffering.

    Preparations are also underway to hold Crimea-style referendums in occupied southern Ukraine. Russia aims to repeat the rigged vote staged during the spring 2014 military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula in order to create a veneer of legitimacy for the subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s southern regions. While a fake ballot would do little to convince international audiences or change military realities, it could significantly worsen the plight of local residents while enabling Moscow to tighten its administrative grip on the occupied regions.

    Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming offensive. Reports are growing of large Russian troop concentrations being redeployed from the current main theater of operations in eastern Ukraine to the southern front. While exact numbers are difficult to confirm, the size of these redeployments indicates that Russia may be planning to launch an offensive of its own on the Kherson front. The longer Ukraine delays, the more militarily challenging an offensive will become….

    … At the same time, Putin shows no signs of downscaling his war aims. On the contrary, Kremlin officials now openly talk of seizing more Ukrainian territory and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. In June, the Russian dictator compared his invasion of Ukraine to Peter the Great’s eighteenth century imperial conquests and declared that he was on an historic mission to “reclaim” Russian lands. The loss of Kherson would represent a crushing blow to these imperial ambitions while also exposing the diminished reality behind Russia’s continued claims to military superpower status.

    The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire.

    That's a good article.

    "A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country."

    Yesterday Dmitry Medvedev posted, and then deleted, an article saying Georgia and Kazakhstan are next. His excuse that he was 'hacked' doesn't ring true for me. Besides, it is just one of many comments from the top of the regime, including Putin himself. that their aim is to gain more than Ukraine.
    I don't how see the battle for Kherson can end well for Russia, given the supply situation. A timely retreat would make more sense. It's similar to Hitler's refusal to countenance retreat, turning local defeats into catastrophic ones.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701
    edited August 2022

    Off to Land’s End tomorrow, any tips?

    If you are starting from John O'Groats, leave early.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Alpine announce Piastri as Alonso's replacement. Piastri announces he won't be driving for them.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.oscar-piastri-insists-i-will-not-be-driving-for-alpine-next-year-after-team.2IzNJp1wi79WZzmphZKSsB.html

    He's off to McLaren then. What a skip fire for Alpine. Alonso quits by press release about his Aston deal, doesn't tell Alpine. "We'll promote our reserve driver" says Alpine, somehow forgets to agree this with Piastri who says naah when they announce it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The leadership vote drama this evening does shine a light on the security issues around online voting .

    Whoever decided online voting was a good idea needs to be shown the door IMO.
    It's not just the security per se that matters, but all the potential to interfere in an election through denial of service, which potentially could even be targetted right down to ward or property level to deny certain groups of voters.

    As a rule of thumb the more you understand about computer security the worse it all looks.
    The comments on IT forums, whenever some politician suggests online voting, are usually very funny. Most of them don’t even like the in-person voting machines, used a lot in the USA. Keep the tech out of voting, paper ballots are much easier to secure.
    Paper ballots are best.

    The question is: how do we have paper ballots, and (relatively) quickly counting?
    Surely the complexity of the electoral process has much to do with that? FPTP just requires piles of ballots to be made for each candidate, which can then be checked through. Some constituencies manage to count tens of thousands of votes in a few hours.

    Other systems. such as STV, are much more complex and will require additional stages and steps to validate and organise the counts. The more complex the voting system, the more difficult the counting process?

    (Note: this is not a recommendation for FPTP tor electronic voting...)
    For the first time this year, I attended the electronic count of my Scottish council STV elections.
    Efficient and transparent. Over 60,000 ballot papers counted in time for tea.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Alpine announce Piastri as Alonso's replacement. Piastri announces he won't be driving for them.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.oscar-piastri-insists-i-will-not-be-driving-for-alpine-next-year-after-team.2IzNJp1wi79WZzmphZKSsB.html

    He's off to McLaren then. What a skip fire for Alpine. Alonso quits by press release about his Aston deal, doesn't tell Alpine. "We'll promote our reserve driver" says Alpine, somehow forgets to agree this with Piastri who says naah when they announce it.
    The online comedians are having fun with the silly season getting very silly.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Are the figures im seeing for the Kansas No vote correct? 59% No?

    That's.... that's game changingly huge for the Mid Terms.

    It is a simplisitc take but if the Dems "get abortion on the ballot" then they win.
  • eek said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Alpine announce Piastri as Alonso's replacement. Piastri announces he won't be driving for them.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.oscar-piastri-insists-i-will-not-be-driving-for-alpine-next-year-after-team.2IzNJp1wi79WZzmphZKSsB.html

    Rumour has it mclaren have 3 drivers under contract for 2023 and Ricardo isn’t rushing to accept a payoff.

    But it’s clear that Alpine didn’t confirm their option with Piastri by the July 31st deadline..
    To add to the fun, McLaren have drivers under contract without having confirmed which McLaren team they will be driving for. F1? Indycar? Formula E? It's all up in the air. So add Piastri into the mix and it's all gone a bit Guido Van Der Garde
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    vik said:

    MikeL said:

    KANSAS ABORTION:

    PredictIt now has 91% chance change fails (ie 91% chance vote to keep all abortion rights).

    I am honestly amazed that this is likely to be rejected in *Kansas* of all places.

    Shows just how much Republicans are out of step with the views of average American voters, when it comes to abortion. Could be an indicator that Dems fare less worse than expected in the midterms.
    And it wasn't even an abortion ban, it was a vote to let the legislature vote on an abortion ban.

    I wonder if there was a weird effect due to it requiring a change to the constitution - maybe some innate conservatism came into play.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    New thread
  • NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.