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More good polling for Truss – politicalbetting.com
More good polling for Truss – politicalbetting.com
The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak. She cannot allow it to appear that the outgoing PM is still playing an active role as no doubt he will attempt to do.
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1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
10 Rishi Sunak 10%
What price a Sunak withdrawal?
Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.
Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.
However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.
https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/
The Ted Heath/Theresa May option and the George Osborne option are sub-optimal. And the John Major/Tony Blair option is unavailable for an underachiever like Sunak.
There is a fourth possibility: total retirement from public life and enjoying his unimaginable wealth. The Scrooge McDuck option.
I don't think that a month of Truss setting out her stall to the party and country is a bad thing for the party. That sort of opportunity comes rarely.
It doesn't preclude this government (of which she is a core member) from coming up with coherent plans to deal with the CoL and other crises.
Meanwhile, Tugendhat's embrace of Truss confirms that the old Conservative party of sound money and the rule of law is now finished. It's populist English nationalism from here on in.
Can we get on with the real issues we have instead of more weeks of this pointless shit? If this drags on to 5th September and the Trusster is finally unveiled weeks and weeks and weeks after she could have been, do they think we will all go "ah that's nice, I'll vote for them"?
The Cost of Living Crisis is a bomb slowly going off. We needed action months ago, and every week that goes past as more and more people winder how on earth they are going to pay their bills is a week that support goes from the Tories.
Why? Because the current AWOL PM and his cabinet did not care. At all. Truss was in that Cabinet. And seems likely to retain much of it. So unless she has some kind of damascean conversion to giving a shit, her "honeymoon" is going to be a crash course in how to make angry people angrier.
Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate
We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
They can't fire him.
I suppose he could lose the whip. Maybe he doesn't care. He is not going to be PM, or chancellor any more
Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
Look how bad Truss was in the first debate. She has already improved significantly from that performance. Another month of hustings will improve her further.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19
The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.
Firstly, a Yorkshire friend who despised London, based on a week he spent down there in the 1980s for work. He was so anti 'the south' that he did not attend a friend's wedding. Which was just to the south of Birmingham...
Secondly, a London friend of mine who, when I took him to my parents' so we could go to Alton Towers, was persuadable that these large black-and-white animals going 'moo' were, in fact, badgers...
I see Parris's argument as one not to drag London down, but to try and increase wealth and prosperity in the regions. Levelling them up, as it were. I wonder if a political party might try that...
You can't give independence to your heart from your body.
Both capital and country just need to get over themselves and stop othering each other.
What government has displayed is not abandonment but contempt. Which is why the best chance is a Labour government reliant on the LDs.
Parliament did badly over Brexit, displaying little strength and much weakness at a time when it was essential to show that parliament, not government is our supreme authority. This has not helped.
Rishi's new corporation tax reliefs for investment and R&D are at least well-intended in that direction.
Boris just last week lauded foreign investment in offshore windfarms, whose profits will flow out of this country. Boris ought to be asking where was the British investment. Britain needs to do more on industrial transfer of university research; more to support its industries like our competitors do. What police cars do gendarmes, polizei and polizia drive? No American dog warden hosts its website on a British cloud but our public sector is all over Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Britain needs to do more to protect fledgling companies from foreign takeover, and more to encourage British investment in those same firms.
F1: Norris looking alarmingly fast.
https://m.box.com/shared_item/https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
Mordaunt was Con Maj’s best chance. Now 3.85.
Reshuffled certainly, but I think the faces in Truss's cabinet will be the same familiar ones, by and large.
Depends on pride vs allure of power
If there is a significant swing against the Tories I also wonder how safe Portsmouth North will be. I know Mordaunt has built up a large majority but it might be fragile.
The game is up for Sunak. If he retires from the contest now, at the very least he parts Johnson from his wallpaper with a month to spare. That alone should be worth the disappointment.
As you can see from the leadership contest Truss is absolutely ruthless. She has already disposed of the supremely impressive Sunak. She will crush the hapless and hopeless Labour Party. Buckle up for seven or eight more years of continuity Johnson.
The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
https://images.historicenglandservices.org.uk/landscapes/urban-landscapes-manchester/wellington-inn-stilts-op05766-25342833.html
It will rot your brain.
The way to do it would be for Sunak and the 1922 to agree it together.
Both make statements saying that it’s clear that Truss is going to win and that Sunak believes that in the interest of the country he should withdraw so that a new leader and cabinet can take the fight to cost of living asap. He and the 1922 think that the good of the country outweighs the party rules and whilst he disagrees with the solutions proposed, solutions need enacting before the autumn.
It’s saves another month of pointless arguments ripping the Tories apart, allows govt to get moving right or wrong and for Sunak it shows him as a sensible person who puts the country first and is a good rebuttal to the “stab in the back” attacks as in the future - if he wants to lead them, he can always say that he clearly always put the good of the country first rather than clinging on to hopes of power etc etc.
The only reason really for Sunak to carry on now is if he hopes or knows something big will blow up and derail Truss as whatever he says doesn’t matter anymore and he has to move from his considered position to try and capture the votes from people who just want all the kittens and puppies on offer from Truss.
Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.
If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
As spectators looking for fun, why not cheer on the long-shots? But it's unwise to bet the house on them. In the same way, it's possible that the next GE will be either a Labour landslide or a Tory triumph, but actually it's been clear for a long time that a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome - it's not as exciting as landslides, but it's the logical consequence of years of modest but consistent Labour polling leads, the closeness of Lab and LibDem outlooks, the bleak economic outlook, the lack of huge enthusiasm for Labour and the evident weariness of the Government.
The Russian forces west of the Dnieper can neither be easily resupplied, or withdrawn with their heavy equipment. The already weak logistical tail to Kherson is now much longer, and requires more lorries and either a difficult and vulnerable ferry crossing, or a much longer and not much easier trip via the Nova Kakhovka bridge. Simply supplying them is going to absorb tremendous Russian effort.
It also means these forces cannot be rotated (should forces allow) or redeploy should Ukraine put their counter-offensive elsewhere, such as South from Dnipro.
With half the tanks in the Russian army lost in only five months of conflict, there’s a hard limit to how long the conflict can continue, and just how many men can be sent into the meat grinder.
Meanwhile, the Ukranians have an essentially limitless supply of materiel and willing volunteers, so long as the West keeps its resolve to supply them.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that anyone with a brain or any money has left Russia, and that not a lot of them plan to return. Lots of schools in my part of the world have an influx of Russian kids starting in September.
They could have just named Simon Jenkins, really.
Vote for us because we're not Them. That's British politics and it has been for a while.
It works because it taps into powerful emotions of wanting to belong to a group, and the easiest way to define an ingroup is in opposition to an outgroup. I don't know how you break the habit. It works too well.
But, well, I'm sick of it too. So we have that in common.
Having now pissed off the Corbynistas, the europhiles and now the Trade Unions, how on earth does Starmer get out the vote? I am very much the Centrist Dad switch voting demographic, but would struggle to vote for such an anaemic Labour programme. It is a very different feel from the late nineties New Labour.
He's regenerating into Jodie Whittaker.
She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
His difficulty is parallel to the Tories. With a very wide spectrum of opinion around + few real alternatives to go for that actually cost money (we are still borrowing nearly 100bn a year) he has to play the boring card at least for now.
With only two parties able to lead a government the voters have to come from a very wide spectrum. If SKS identifies with stuff like strikes, Corbynism, socialism and all that he will soon lose the several million Tory voters who plan to vote for him.
And he has to hope that the new PM doesn't suddenly morph into a great leader. As Mrs T did from nowhere (a fact people forget).
SKS/Labour's chance of leading the next government is above 50% but not much. Say about 60%.
There was no predicted wave of moths pushed up to avoid the heat coming up from Africa two weeks ago, which was a shame. We were looking forward to some exotics! We are now into a period where most of the moths are brown...and look alike. The hawk moths are tailing off, unless and until we get some migrants like the Convolvulus. If you hang sheets out to dry in August and September, check that you haven't got one hanging on. They are a bit partial, for some reason. Not the best of places to avoid predation.... Just off to do some shopping for my friends down with Covid, but I'll post a pic later. They are impressive beasts, with a grumpy alien design on their thorax....you'll see what I mean.
For now.
BTW some Catskill moth photos in the Graun the other day -
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2022/jul/28/the-magnificent-moths-of-the-catskill-mountains-in-pictures-aoe
Confining the enemy East of the river is a key strategic goal, which frees up a lot of defending forces to attack the remaining enemy from their North and West. It might also allow for UN or NATO peacekeepers to be stationed in the ‘safe’ West of the country, further protecting Ukranian supply lines and freeing up more of their troops.
Your party does have a momentum like problem with the clique centred around the Daily Mail. Solving that is a problem bigger than Mourdaunt.
1) Make the reasonable case for reform of the Gender Recognition laws, towards Self ID* with protections in certain areas.
2) Say that her views have changed and that she now thinks differently.
3) lie and deny what was on the record.
That she chose 3) shows both poor character and political judgement, perhaps driven by a culture of lying in government.
*Self ID is as poor a nomenclature as "Defund the Police" or ""Black Lives Matter" as it too is easily mis-interpreted.
The parliamentary proposals are essentially a demedicalisation of getting a GRC. The parliamentary proposals are here, and do include protections for sex aligned spaces where appropriate.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2018-0254/
It is not right wing economics or economics at all, just voting for whoever promises them the most sweets.
Truss remains a comprehensive air head, nonetheless she appears to have some seriously clever and ruthless people behind the scenes. Are the Aussies involved? From what we have seen so far, they will make light work of the Labour Party.
Continuity Johnson without the parties could see a swift polling lead for the Conservatives.
Would assume this is a puss take but then I remember this is Russia so probably would be their plan.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/stats-age-defying-james-anderson-1326813
And long may he continue as he's now the only international cricketer who is older than I am.
The problem is being seen as a real contender and losing. If you're an outsider, especially on the young side, it matters less.