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More good polling for Truss – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageMore good polling for Truss – politicalbetting.com

The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak. She cannot allow it to appear that the outgoing PM is still playing an active role as no doubt he will attempt to do.

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    10 Rishi Sunak 10%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Tugendhat was the coup de grâce.

    What price a Sunak withdrawal?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Boris Johnson told friends he did not think that Rishi Sunak, the man he blames for his downfall, was going to make it. “He almost feels sorry for him,” a friend of Johnson said https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/even-boris-johnson-feels-sorry-for-struggling-rishi-sunak-qzhx3rm65?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659135924-1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697

    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.

    I concur.

    The Ted Heath/Theresa May option and the George Osborne option are sub-optimal. And the John Major/Tony Blair option is unavailable for an underachiever like Sunak.

    There is a fourth possibility: total retirement from public life and enjoying his unimaginable wealth. The Scrooge McDuck option.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,592

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    I thought it was spelt “Ingerland”?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521

    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.

    All candidates agreed that they would not withdraw, and would send the contest to the members.

    I don't think that a month of Truss setting out her stall to the party and country is a bad thing for the party. That sort of opportunity comes rarely.

    It doesn't preclude this government (of which she is a core member) from coming up with coherent plans to deal with the CoL and other crises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Foxy said:

    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.

    All candidates agreed that they would not withdraw, and would send the contest to the members.

    I don't think that a month of Truss setting out her stall to the party and country is a bad thing for the party. That sort of opportunity comes rarely.

    It doesn't preclude this government (of which she is a core member) from coming up with coherent plans to deal with the CoL and other crises.
    Agreed. It's their total uselessness that precludes that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    Its done - Truss wins.

    Can we get on with the real issues we have instead of more weeks of this pointless shit? If this drags on to 5th September and the Trusster is finally unveiled weeks and weeks and weeks after she could have been, do they think we will all go "ah that's nice, I'll vote for them"?

    The Cost of Living Crisis is a bomb slowly going off. We needed action months ago, and every week that goes past as more and more people winder how on earth they are going to pay their bills is a week that support goes from the Tories.

    Why? Because the current AWOL PM and his cabinet did not care. At all. Truss was in that Cabinet. And seems likely to retain much of it. So unless she has some kind of damascean conversion to giving a shit, her "honeymoon" is going to be a crash course in how to make angry people angrier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.

    All candidates agreed that they would not withdraw, and would send the contest to the members.

    I don't think that a month of Truss setting out her stall to the party and country is a bad thing for the party. That sort of opportunity comes rarely.

    It doesn't preclude this government (of which she is a core member) from coming up with coherent plans to deal with the CoL and other crises.
    Agreed. It's their total uselessness that precludes that.
    We do not have a government. They quit already. Parliament was sitting and senior Cabinet ministers refused to do their jobs. Now that parliament isn't sitting the cat is in charge. So yes, Truss and her team could be thinking "what are the big issues" and "what can we do to truly manage them". Except that her team is the current don't care cabinet....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Its done - Truss wins.

    Can we get on with the real issues we have instead of more weeks of this pointless shit? If this drags on to 5th September and the Trusster is finally unveiled weeks and weeks and weeks after she could have been, do they think we will all go "ah that's nice, I'll vote for them"?

    The Cost of Living Crisis is a bomb slowly going off. We needed action months ago, and every week that goes past as more and more people winder how on earth they are going to pay their bills is a week that support goes from the Tories.

    Why? Because the current AWOL PM and his cabinet did not care. At all. Truss was in that Cabinet. And seems likely to retain much of it. So unless she has some kind of damascean conversion to giving a shit, her "honeymoon" is going to be a crash course in how to make angry people angrier.

    Liz Truss still is in the Cabinet. She remains Foreign Secretary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Foxy said:

    All candidates agreed that they would not withdraw, and would send the contest to the members.

    Indeed, but what sanction is available if he withdraws?

    They can't fire him.

    I suppose he could lose the whip. Maybe he doesn't care. He is not going to be PM, or chancellor any more
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    Foxy said:

    She cuts a deal. Rishi as foreign secretary and he can have a go as LOTO if she loses in 2 years. End the contest early.

    Best he can hope for now, and it's not a bad offer.

    All candidates agreed that they would not withdraw, and would send the contest to the members.

    I don't think that a month of Truss setting out her stall to the party and country is a bad thing for the party. That sort of opportunity comes rarely.

    It doesn't preclude this government (of which she is a core member) from coming up with coherent plans to deal with the CoL and other crises.
    And the members will want the illusion of a choice, even though events and the MPs have conspired to make sure that it's effectively made for them already.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,727
    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Independence for London is the answer surely? The moaners get rid of loads of the woke, the liberals, the metropolitans, the experts and we get rid of the moaners and some cash on top too. Luvvly jubbly as our honorary leader would have said.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    JRM and Suella Braverman belong in the dock at the Old Bailey, not on the back benches.
    Yes, and no sooner typed that R4 is reporting that Truss plans to make Kwasi the Chancellor and take over more economic staff from number eleven, with Redwood and JRM "expected to be influential". God help us all...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    JRM and Suella Braverman belong in the dock at the Old Bailey, not on the back benches.
    Yes, and no sooner typed that R4 is reporting that Truss plans to make Kwasi the Chancellor and take over more economic staff from number eleven, with Redwood and JRM "expected to be influential". God help us all...
    Redwood is, with all his many and manifest shortcomings, at least very intelligent. We can't even say that about Mogg. He doesn't have a single redeeming characteristic.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    Careful now. The reason ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg is in the Cabinet is as a human shield protecting Boris's flank from backbench Brexiteers. Someone will need to play that role for Liz Truss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited July 30

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    Careful now. The reason ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg is in the Cabinet is as a human shield protecting Boris's flank from backbench Brexiteers. Someone will need to play that role for Liz Truss.
    Edited because I was wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Trouble with that is that Parris lives in the metropolis but despises the rest of the country.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    edited July 30
    Surely the lesson from Theresa May's coronation is that the campaign is actually very useful - it will improve Truss as a communicator which in turn will improve her chance of being a successful PM.

    Look how bad Truss was in the first debate. She has already improved significantly from that performance. Another month of hustings will improve her further.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Trouble with that is that Parris lives in the metropolis but despises the rest of the country.
    I'm unsure that's true. I've seen true 'despising' from both sides.

    Firstly, a Yorkshire friend who despised London, based on a week he spent down there in the 1980s for work. He was so anti 'the south' that he did not attend a friend's wedding. Which was just to the south of Birmingham...

    Secondly, a London friend of mine who, when I took him to my parents' so we could go to Alton Towers, was persuadable that these large black-and-white animals going 'moo' were, in fact, badgers...

    I see Parris's argument as one not to drag London down, but to try and increase wealth and prosperity in the regions. Levelling them up, as it were. I wonder if a political party might try that... ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Independence for London is the answer surely? The moaners get rid of loads of the woke, the liberals, the metropolitans, the experts and we get rid of the moaners and some cash on top too. Luvvly jubbly as our honorary leader would have said.
    London is the capital of England and the United Kingdom.

    You can't give independence to your heart from your body.

    Both capital and country just need to get over themselves and stop othering each other.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,939

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.
    The only body that can abandon parliamentary democracy is parliament. Government can only do it if parliament is willing. And in the long run the voters have to be willing too.

    What government has displayed is not abandonment but contempt. Which is why the best chance is a Labour government reliant on the LDs.

    Parliament did badly over Brexit, displaying little strength and much weakness at a time when it was essential to show that parliament, not government is our supreme authority. This has not helped.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Yes, the two relatively prosperous parts of Britain are London & environs, and Scotland. We desperately need to spread the wealth around, build new homes and even new towns rather than build tower blocks on an already overheated London greenbelt, and also recover the old industrial areas, perhaps with more industry.

    Rishi's new corporation tax reliefs for investment and R&D are at least well-intended in that direction.

    Boris just last week lauded foreign investment in offshore windfarms, whose profits will flow out of this country. Boris ought to be asking where was the British investment. Britain needs to do more on industrial transfer of university research; more to support its industries like our competitors do. What police cars do gendarmes, polizei and polizia drive? No American dog warden hosts its website on a British cloud but our public sector is all over Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Britain needs to do more to protect fledgling companies from foreign takeover, and more to encourage British investment in those same firms.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Norris looking alarmingly fast.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Yes, the two relatively prosperous parts of Britain are London & environs, and Scotland. We desperately need to spread the wealth around, build new homes and even new towns rather than build tower blocks on an already overheated London greenbelt, and also recover the old industrial areas, perhaps with more industry.

    Rishi's new corporation tax reliefs for investment and R&D are at least well-intended in that direction.

    Boris just last week lauded foreign investment in offshore windfarms, whose profits will flow out of this country. Boris ought to be asking where was the British investment. Britain needs to do more on industrial transfer of university research; more to support its industries like our competitors do. What police cars do gendarmes, polizei and polizia drive? No American dog warden hosts its website on a British cloud but our public sector is all over Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Britain needs to do more to protect fledgling companies from foreign takeover, and more to encourage British investment in those same firms.
    The trouble with protectionism is that other countries can do it too. We need to raise our game, not put barriers up. Making it harder for our firms to access the world's biggest single economic area 22 miles offshore hasn't helped. And you sure as hell can't blame London, or Scotland for that matter, for that monumental act of dumbness.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749
    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Yes, the two relatively prosperous parts of Britain are London & environs, and Scotland. We desperately need to spread the wealth around, build new homes and even new towns rather than build tower blocks on an already overheated London greenbelt, and also recover the old industrial areas, perhaps with more industry.

    Rishi's new corporation tax reliefs for investment and R&D are at least well-intended in that direction.

    Boris just last week lauded foreign investment in offshore windfarms, whose profits will flow out of this country. Boris ought to be asking where was the British investment. Britain needs to do more on industrial transfer of university research; more to support its industries like our competitors do. What police cars do gendarmes, polizei and polizia drive? No American dog warden hosts its website on a British cloud but our public sector is all over Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Britain needs to do more to protect fledgling companies from foreign takeover, and more to encourage British investment in those same firms.
    But flogging British assets to abroad with a nice cut for the middleman has been the basis of Tory economics for 40 years! A lot of middlemen have grown very rich from selling everything we have. You want all that to end?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    The slides etc that accompany the paper are here:

    https://m.box.com/shared_item/https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    F1: had a free bet, so put it on Norris each way to top FP3 at 17. He's been 4th and 2nd so far.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    Indeed. Truss was repeatedly dismissed and yet was moving like a submarine advancing slowly and torpedoing the threat.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Yes, the two relatively prosperous parts of Britain are London & environs, and Scotland. We desperately need to spread the wealth around, build new homes and even new towns rather than build tower blocks on an already overheated London greenbelt, and also recover the old industrial areas, perhaps with more industry.

    Rishi's new corporation tax reliefs for investment and R&D are at least well-intended in that direction.

    Boris just last week lauded foreign investment in offshore windfarms, whose profits will flow out of this country. Boris ought to be asking where was the British investment. Britain needs to do more on industrial transfer of university research; more to support its industries like our competitors do. What police cars do gendarmes, polizei and polizia drive? No American dog warden hosts its website on a British cloud but our public sector is all over Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Britain needs to do more to protect fledgling companies from foreign takeover, and more to encourage British investment in those same firms.
    The trouble with protectionism is that other countries can do it too. We need to raise our game, not put barriers up. Making it harder for our firms to access the world's biggest single economic area 22 miles offshore hasn't helped. And you sure as hell can't blame London, or Scotland for that matter, for that monumental act of dumbness.
    Other countries are doing it already. That's the point. We do not need to shove up trade barriers but we could at least consider buying British first just as our competitors look to their own suppliers before looking abroad. That was the point of my examples above, the police cars and the cloud. But yes, point taken about Brexit and especially hard Brexit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Dynamo said:

    My view is still:

    * best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt;
    * worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss;
    * best at the job: Rishi Sunak.

    Spot on.

    Mordaunt was Con Maj’s best chance. Now 3.85.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    JRM and Suella Braverman belong in the dock at the Old Bailey, not on the back benches.
    Yes, and no sooner typed that R4 is reporting that Truss plans to make Kwasi the Chancellor and take over more economic staff from number eleven, with Redwood and JRM "expected to be influential". God help us all...
    Redwood is, with all his many and manifest shortcomings, at least very intelligent. We can't even say that about Mogg. He doesn't have a single redeeming characteristic.
    Intelligent maybe, but not an imperial ounce of common sense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    F1: oh, and there's a higher chance of it being wet than dry for both practice and qualifying.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Tugendhat was the coup de grâce.

    What price a Sunak withdrawal?

    I don't think he can withdraw under the rules. But he could just stop campaigning. If I were him, though, I wouldn't. There is a certain valour in carrying on - and certainly some political advantage in being seen to have done all he could to oppose Truss if she ends up crashing and burning.

    Meanwhile, Tugendhat's embrace of Truss confirms that the old Conservative party of sound money and the rule of law is now finished. It's populist English nationalism from here on in.
    Yes. I was listening to the James O’Brien show on LBC last week, and a lovely lady phoned in and poured out her heart. A huge David Cameron fan, she had once been an approved Con candidate. She is completely devastated by the death of the old Conservative Party she once loved. Although still a member (she is voting Sunak), she said that her party had now transformed into “The English Nationalist Party” (her words). Hard to disagree with her.
    It's not even nationalism; it's populism, and generally mindless populism at that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    JRM and Suella Braverman belong in the dock at the Old Bailey, not on the back benches.
    Yes, and no sooner typed that R4 is reporting that Truss plans to make Kwasi the Chancellor and take over more economic staff from number eleven, with Redwood and JRM "expected to be influential". God help us all...
    Christmas is coming early for Mark Drakeford, Nicola Sturgeon and Ed Davey.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    - “The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak.“

    Partly correct: those two are important in terms of marketing strategy.

    However, in substantive terms - affecting the English constitution and parliamentary democracy itself - the key appointment is Her Majesty's Attorney General for England and Wales. If Prime Minister Mary Elizabeth Truss, a Paisley Buddy, re-appoints Suella Braverman QC then the country is headed into dreadful problems. Democracy itself is at threat.

    https://newsofcanada.net/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-illegal/

    A good thing about moderates like Wallace and the Hat weighing in behind Truss now, is that she will feel less in hock to the nutters.

    Whether the likes of JRM get jobs, or are despatched back to the benches where they belong, will send a powerful signal.
    JRM and Suella Braverman belong in the dock at the Old Bailey, not on the back benches.
    Yes, and no sooner typed that R4 is reporting that Truss plans to make Kwasi the Chancellor and take over more economic staff from number eleven, with Redwood and JRM "expected to be influential". God help us all...
    Redwood is, with all his many and manifest shortcomings, at least very intelligent. We can't even say that about Mogg. He doesn't have a single redeeming characteristic.
    Intelligent maybe, but not an imperial ounce of common sense.
    Still an improvement on Mogg, Johnson and Braverman, who have neither.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    I would guess today that Badenoch would be that person.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    Yes, if Mordaunt has any sense and wants to avoid becoming irrelevant on the back benches like Jeremy Hunt or Yvette Cooper. Note also that Truss has largely kept her own hands clean while her supporters put in the leg-breaking tackles.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    The toxicity came mostly from Badenoch, so doesn't rule out a position for Mordaunt.

    Reshuffled certainly, but I think the faces in Truss's cabinet will be the same familiar ones, by and large.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,644
    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    It is a bit of a bind working out how relationships will untangle themselves post campaign.
    Depends on pride vs allure of power
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    That somebody, without a major shock somewhere, will be Badenoch. She is the candidate to appeal to a right wing grouping after a narrow but emotionally shattering defeat.

    If there is a significant swing against the Tories I also wonder how safe Portsmouth North will be. I know Mordaunt has built up a large majority but it might be fragile.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    Indeed. Truss was repeatedly dismissed and yet was moving like a submarine advancing slowly and torpedoing the threat.
    And now the drones, both in Parliament (like Tommy Tugs and Wallace) and on here are swarming around the Queen.

    The game is up for Sunak. If he retires from the contest now, at the very least he parts Johnson from his wallpaper with a month to spare. That alone should be worth the disappointment.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,644

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    Indeed. Truss was repeatedly dismissed and yet was moving like a submarine advancing slowly and torpedoing the threat.
    And now the drones, both in Parliament (like Tommy Tugs and Wallace) and on here are swarming around the Queen.

    The game is up for Sunak. If he retires from the contest now, at the very least he parts Johnson from his wallpaper with a month to spare. That alone should be worth the disappointment.
    The contest goes on even if he withdraws, largely because the rules preclude withdrawal.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,696
    edited July 30
    O woe is me ...it is the end of all that we knew and loved..of you read this thread.... only it isn't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    I get the impression that old Cameroons and any Tory from Mourdaunt leftward might find politics more rewarding if they spent the next ten years in the Lib Dems.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    That somebody, without a major shock somewhere, will be Badenoch. She is the candidate to appeal to a right wing grouping after a narrow but emotionally shattering defeat.

    If there is a significant swing against the Tories I also wonder how safe Portsmouth North will be. I know Mordaunt has built up a large majority but it might be fragile.
    Now Johnson has gone ( ...sorry, is going) she'll be fine. The Northern and Western wards in her seat are posh Hampshire suburban and rural. She's well regarded in Portsmouth too.

    As you can see from the leadership contest Truss is absolutely ruthless. She has already disposed of the supremely impressive Sunak. She will crush the hapless and hopeless Labour Party. Buckle up for seven or eight more years of continuity Johnson.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,696

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    Who is going to.picknup.the pieces after Sturgeon?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    edited July 30
    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,287
    O/T but after the discussion of cities yesterday this rather striking image came up on the English Heritage regular email this morning - specially for Mancunians:

    https://images.historicenglandservices.org.uk/landscapes/urban-landscapes-manchester/wellington-inn-stilts-op05766-25342833.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Tugendhat was the coup de grâce.

    What price a Sunak withdrawal?

    I don't think he can withdraw under the rules. But he could just stop campaigning. If I were him, though, I wouldn't. There is a certain valour in carrying on - and certainly some political advantage in being seen to have done all he could to oppose Truss if she ends up crashing and burning.

    Meanwhile, Tugendhat's embrace of Truss confirms that the old Conservative party of sound money and the rule of law is now finished. It's populist English nationalism from here on in.
    Yes. I was listening to the James O’Brien show on LBC last week, and a lovely lady phoned in and poured out her heart. A huge David Cameron fan, she had once been an approved Con candidate. She is completely devastated by the death of the old Conservative Party she once loved. Although still a member (she is voting Sunak), she said that her party had now transformed into “The English Nationalist Party” (her words). Hard to disagree with her.
    Don't listen to that angry self-hating fraud James O'Brien.

    It will rot your brain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Jonathan said:

    I get the impression that old Cameroons and any Tory from Mourdaunt leftward might find politics more rewarding if they spent the next ten years in the Lib Dems.

    Well, yes. The Lib Dems is just full of rewards.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414

    Jonathan said:

    I get the impression that old Cameroons and any Tory from Mourdaunt leftward might find politics more rewarding if they spent the next ten years in the Lib Dems.

    Well, yes. The Lib Dems is just full of rewards.
    Precisely my point.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    problem with mass unemployment in Russia is that it will provide a new supply of (desperate) conscripts.. Yes I can't see any way of avoiding it but it's not great news.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,466
    philiph said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    Indeed. Truss was repeatedly dismissed and yet was moving like a submarine advancing slowly and torpedoing the threat.
    And now the drones, both in Parliament (like Tommy Tugs and Wallace) and on here are swarming around the Queen.

    The game is up for Sunak. If he retires from the contest now, at the very least he parts Johnson from his wallpaper with a month to spare. That alone should be worth the disappointment.
    The contest goes on even if he withdraws, largely because the rules preclude withdrawal.
    The rules can and do change as we have seen before.

    The way to do it would be for Sunak and the 1922 to agree it together.

    Both make statements saying that it’s clear that Truss is going to win and that Sunak believes that in the interest of the country he should withdraw so that a new leader and cabinet can take the fight to cost of living asap. He and the 1922 think that the good of the country outweighs the party rules and whilst he disagrees with the solutions proposed, solutions need enacting before the autumn.

    It’s saves another month of pointless arguments ripping the Tories apart, allows govt to get moving right or wrong and for Sunak it shows him as a sensible person who puts the country first and is a good rebuttal to the “stab in the back” attacks as in the future - if he wants to lead them, he can always say that he clearly always put the good of the country first rather than clinging on to hopes of power etc etc.

    The only reason really for Sunak to carry on now is if he hopes or knows something big will blow up and derail Truss as whatever he says doesn’t matter anymore and he has to move from his considered position to try and capture the votes from people who just want all the kittens and puppies on offer from Truss.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    O woe is me ...it is the end of all that we knew and loved..of you read this thread.... only it isn't.

    The British are never happier than we they believe they are utterly doomed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    The developing Ukranian strategy is an interesting one, and closer to NATO doctrine of only moving in ground troops after a long preparation.

    The Russian forces west of the Dnieper can neither be easily resupplied, or withdrawn with their heavy equipment. The already weak logistical tail to Kherson is now much longer, and requires more lorries and either a difficult and vulnerable ferry crossing, or a much longer and not much easier trip via the Nova Kakhovka bridge. Simply supplying them is going to absorb tremendous Russian effort.

    It also means these forces cannot be rotated (should forces allow) or redeploy should Ukraine put their counter-offensive elsewhere, such as South from Dnipro.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,473
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but after the discussion of cities yesterday this rather striking image came up on the English Heritage regular email this morning - specially for Mancunians:

    https://images.historicenglandservices.org.uk/landscapes/urban-landscapes-manchester/wellington-inn-stilts-op05766-25342833.html

    From an archaeological point of view that is a desperately sad photo.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    problem with mass unemployment in Russia is that it will provide a new supply of (desperate) conscripts.. Yes I can't see any way of avoiding it but it's not great news.
    Possibly, but the conscripts still need training and equipment.

    With half the tanks in the Russian army lost in only five months of conflict, there’s a hard limit to how long the conflict can continue, and just how many men can be sent into the meat grinder.

    Meanwhile, the Ukranians have an essentially limitless supply of materiel and willing volunteers, so long as the West keeps its resolve to supply them.

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that anyone with a brain or any money has left Russia, and that not a lot of them plan to return. Lots of schools in my part of the world have an influx of Russian kids starting in September.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,253
    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    “ Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.”

    They could have just named Simon Jenkins, really.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085

    Scott_xP said:

    Yep - Braverman's reappointment would confirm the Tory abandonment of Parliamentary democracy.

    And rational thought.

    Matthew Parris in The Times today is thoroughly depressing on what will happen with these idiots in power, but I think it is sadly accurate

    We remain a relatively civilised, gently declining manufacturing economy, living slightly beyond our means, quite good at R&D but keeping afloat substantially through the efforts of wide-boys in the City of London, a metropolis the rest of the country seems to despise, its politicians too cowardly to explain that the sheep on our hills and pork pies from Melton Mowbray are not what fund our living standards. London does.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-fed-false-promises-from-all-sides-v9h5flq2m
    Independence for London is the answer surely? The moaners get rid of loads of the woke, the liberals, the metropolitans, the experts and we get rid of the moaners and some cash on top too. Luvvly jubbly as our honorary leader would have said.
    London is the capital of England and the United Kingdom.

    You can't give independence to your heart from your body.

    Both capital and country just need to get over themselves and stop othering each other.
    Othering the opposition is what passes for political debate in this country. The right others the woke and the greens as insane ideologues. The left others Tories as heartless baby killers and granny sellers. Vegans are othered, as are cyclists and Chelsea tractor drivers. The political parties even other different factions within their own parties. The SNP other the English. The upper middle class other the lower middle class. Those with degrees other those without. The old other the young.

    Vote for us because we're not Them. That's British politics and it has been for a while.

    It works because it taps into powerful emotions of wanting to belong to a group, and the easiest way to define an ingroup is in opposition to an outgroup. I don't know how you break the habit. It works too well.

    But, well, I'm sick of it too. So we have that in common.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    PB has a bias to "unexpected results". We love hearing about 50-1 bets that came off, and it leads us to predict surprises. I've always thought Truss was likely to win because she's the closest fit to today's Tory membership, and although Badenoch certainly surprised on the upside, she started an a rank outsider and merely moved to credible also-ran.

    As spectators looking for fun, why not cheer on the long-shots? But it's unwise to bet the house on them. In the same way, it's possible that the next GE will be either a Labour landslide or a Tory triumph, but actually it's been clear for a long time that a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome - it's not as exciting as landslides, but it's the logical consequence of years of modest but consistent Labour polling leads, the closeness of Lab and LibDem outlooks, the bleak economic outlook, the lack of huge enthusiasm for Labour and the evident weariness of the Government.
    Given the current Labour leadership is not changing any time soon, how should Labour cure that palpable lack of enthusiasm for a Labour government, minority or not?

    Having now pissed off the Corbynistas, the europhiles and now the Trade Unions, how on earth does Starmer get out the vote? I am very much the Centrist Dad switch voting demographic, but would struggle to vote for such an anaemic Labour programme. It is a very different feel from the late nineties New Labour.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    That somebody, without a major shock somewhere, will be Badenoch. She is the candidate to appeal to a right wing grouping after a narrow but emotionally shattering defeat.

    If there is a significant swing against the Tories I also wonder how safe Portsmouth North will be. I know Mordaunt has built up a large majority but it might be fragile.
    Now Johnson has gone ( ...sorry, is going) she'll be fine. The Northern and Western wards in her seat are posh Hampshire suburban and rural. She's well regarded in Portsmouth too.

    As you can see from the leadership contest Truss is absolutely ruthless. She has already disposed of the supremely impressive Sunak. She will crush the hapless and hopeless Labour Party. Buckle up for seven or eight more years of continuity Johnson.
    Buy for all practical purposes, Johnson isn't going.

    He's regenerating into Jodie Whittaker.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,034
    edited July 30

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,105
    edited July 30

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She’d be wise not to. Someone has to pick up the pieces in 2025, after the car crash.
    Who is going to.picknup.the pieces after Sturgeon?
    Although a valid question it is completely unrelated question and seems like an unnecessary jibe at Stuart who gives his opinion on an interesting question on whether Mourdaunt would be wise to take a job or not. Seemed unnecessary in a civilised exchange..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    She’d have been fine if her ‘wokeness’ had been confined to speeches, rather than actually introducing legislation that had clearly been written by Stonewall.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    edited July 30
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    The developing Ukranian strategy is an interesting one, and closer to NATO doctrine of only moving in ground troops after a long preparation.

    The Russian forces west of the Dnieper can neither be easily resupplied, or withdrawn with their heavy equipment. The already weak logistical tail to Kherson is now much longer, and requires more lorries and either a difficult and vulnerable ferry crossing, or a much longer and not much easier trip via the Nova Kakhovka bridge. Simply supplying them is going to absorb tremendous Russian effort.

    It also means these forces cannot be rotated (should forces allow) or redeploy should Ukraine put their counter-offensive elsewhere, such as South from Dnipro.
    Russia is said to be assembling an operational reserve in Crimea, which suggests they are alive to a wider potential threat.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,663
    edited July 30

    Tugendhat was the coup de grâce.

    What price a Sunak withdrawal?

    I don't think he can withdraw under the rules. But he could just stop campaigning. If I were him, though, I wouldn't. There is a certain valour in carrying on - and certainly some political advantage in being seen to have done all he could to oppose Truss if she ends up crashing and burning.

    Meanwhile, Tugendhat's embrace of Truss confirms that the old Conservative party of sound money and the rule of law is now finished. It's populist English nationalism from here on in.
    Yes. I was listening to the James O’Brien show on LBC last week, and a lovely lady phoned in and poured out her heart. A huge David Cameron fan, she had once been an approved Con candidate. She is completely devastated by the death of the old Conservative Party she once loved. Although still a member (she is voting Sunak), she said that her party had now transformed into “The English Nationalist Party” (her words). Hard to disagree with her.
    Don't listen to that angry self-hating fraud James O'Brien.

    It will rot your brain.
    I don't think he hates himself, he hates Tories who lie and cheat and collude with Russian KGB
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    PB has a bias to "unexpected results". We love hearing about 50-1 bets that came off, and it leads us to predict surprises. I've always thought Truss was likely to win because she's the closest fit to today's Tory membership, and although Badenoch certainly surprised on the upside, she started an a rank outsider and merely moved to credible also-ran.

    As spectators looking for fun, why not cheer on the long-shots? But it's unwise to bet the house on them. In the same way, it's possible that the next GE will be either a Labour landslide or a Tory triumph, but actually it's been clear for a long time that a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome - it's not as exciting as landslides, but it's the logical consequence of years of modest but consistent Labour polling leads, the closeness of Lab and LibDem outlooks, the bleak economic outlook, the lack of huge enthusiasm for Labour and the evident weariness of the Government.
    Yes and no. This leadership race has narrowed to the two Oxford-educated (there was even a pb header on the subject) holders of the Great Offices of State. No surprise there, but even quite late during the MPs' ballots, Truss was priced at 4 or 5/1. Nor should we forget that Truss was tipped on pb at 100/1 and Sunak at 250/1. The point is you should look amongst the outsiders for events that are a long way off, and lay the favourites while there is not much information. But as settlement gets closer, the market will likely close in on the winner.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,939
    edited July 30
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    PB has a bias to "unexpected results". We love hearing about 50-1 bets that came off, and it leads us to predict surprises. I've always thought Truss was likely to win because she's the closest fit to today's Tory membership, and although Badenoch certainly surprised on the upside, she started an a rank outsider and merely moved to credible also-ran.

    As spectators looking for fun, why not cheer on the long-shots? But it's unwise to bet the house on them. In the same way, it's possible that the next GE will be either a Labour landslide or a Tory triumph, but actually it's been clear for a long time that a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome - it's not as exciting as landslides, but it's the logical consequence of years of modest but consistent Labour polling leads, the closeness of Lab and LibDem outlooks, the bleak economic outlook, the lack of huge enthusiasm for Labour and the evident weariness of the Government.
    Given the current Labour leadership is not changing any time soon, how should Labour cure that palpable lack of enthusiasm for a Labour government, minority or not?

    Having now pissed off the Corbynistas, the europhiles and now the Trade Unions, how on earth does Starmer get out the vote? I am very much the Centrist Dad switch voting demographic, but would struggle to vote for such an anaemic Labour programme. It is a very different feel from the late nineties New Labour.
    He doesn't need to get out the vote. He needs to fail to do so less spectacularly than the Tories. If centrist dads stay at home on all sides he can form a minority government.

    His difficulty is parallel to the Tories. With a very wide spectrum of opinion around + few real alternatives to go for that actually cost money (we are still borrowing nearly 100bn a year) he has to play the boring card at least for now.

    With only two parties able to lead a government the voters have to come from a very wide spectrum. If SKS identifies with stuff like strikes, Corbynism, socialism and all that he will soon lose the several million Tory voters who plan to vote for him.

    And he has to hope that the new PM doesn't suddenly morph into a great leader. As Mrs T did from nowhere (a fact people forget).

    SKS/Labour's chance of leading the next government is above 50% but not much. Say about 60%.



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,034
    From previous thread, to MattW - the moths are doing OK. Still a worrying selection of no shows this year, but some others are having a very good time. Winners and losers of global warming. A few box tree moths are making it this far west now. Will have to put the bird feeders above the box - apparently the tits are very partial to the caterpillars, once they find them.

    There was no predicted wave of moths pushed up to avoid the heat coming up from Africa two weeks ago, which was a shame. We were looking forward to some exotics! We are now into a period where most of the moths are brown...and look alike. The hawk moths are tailing off, unless and until we get some migrants like the Convolvulus. If you hang sheets out to dry in August and September, check that you haven't got one hanging on. They are a bit partial, for some reason. Not the best of places to avoid predation.... Just off to do some shopping for my friends down with Covid, but I'll post a pic later. They are impressive beasts, with a grumpy alien design on their thorax....you'll see what I mean.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    problem with mass unemployment in Russia is that it will provide a new supply of (desperate) conscripts.. Yes I can't see any way of avoiding it but it's not great news.
    Possibly, but the conscripts still need training and equipment.

    With half the tanks in the Russian army lost in only five months of conflict, there’s a hard limit to how long the conflict can continue, and just how many men can be sent into the meat grinder.

    Meanwhile, the Ukranians have an essentially limitless supply of materiel and willing volunteers, so long as the West keeps its resolve to supply them.

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that anyone with a brain or any money has left Russia, and that not a lot of them plan to return. Lots of schools in my part of the world have an influx of Russian kids starting in September.
    Given some of the obsolete, or improvised, equipment being used by the Ukrainians, such as ancient Soviet mortars, or mini MLRS launchers cobbled together from scavenged parts, there is still a desperate shortage of military equipment for the Ukrainian Army.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,034
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    She’d have been fine if her ‘wokeness’ had been confined to speeches, rather than actually introducing legislation that had clearly been written by Stonewall.
    Her twin-brother has probably cost her the top job.

    For now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,287

    From previous thread, to MattW - the moths are doing OK. Still a worrying selection of no shows this year, but some others are having a very good time. Winners and losers of global warming. A few box tree moths are making it this far west now. Will have to put the bird feeders above the box - apparently the tits are very partial to the caterpillars, once they find them.

    There was no predicted wave of moths pushed up to avoid the heat coming up from Africa two weeks ago, which was a shame. We were looking forward to some exotics! We are now into a period where most of the moths are brown...and look alike. The hawk moths are tailing off, unless and until we get some migrants like the Convolvulus. If you hang sheets out to dry in August and September, check that you haven't got one hanging on. They are a bit partial, for some reason. Not the best of places to avoid predation.... Just off to do some shopping for my friends down with Covid, but I'll post a pic later. They are impressive beasts, with a grumpy alien design on their thorax....you'll see what I mean.

    Nice!

    BTW some Catskill moth photos in the Graun the other day -

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2022/jul/28/the-magnificent-moths-of-the-catskill-mountains-in-pictures-aoe
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting from the Yale School of Management on the imploding Russian economy under sanctions:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    And I see it was HIMARS time again last night on another major Russian supply dump in Nova Kakhovka.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1553256611266830336?t=uGcn56YEwsOQzPIh2t9JsA&s=19

    The noose around the Russian forces west of the Dnieper is tightening.

    Another day, another Russian ammo store in Ukraine on fire…

    The Yale piece is also very good, debunking the Russian narrative that life is good under sanctions, spread by propogandists and useful idiots in the West - a couple of whom were on the previous thread. It’s taken perhaps a little longer than many expected, but the Russian economy is being squeezed hard. They’re self-sufficient in food, so they’re not going to starve, but with GDP down 10% there’s going to be mass unemployment and unsustainable state intervention in the economy.
    The developing Ukranian strategy is an interesting one, and closer to NATO doctrine of only moving in ground troops after a long preparation.

    The Russian forces west of the Dnieper can neither be easily resupplied, or withdrawn with their heavy equipment. The already weak logistical tail to Kherson is now much longer, and requires more lorries and either a difficult and vulnerable ferry crossing, or a much longer and not much easier trip via the Nova Kakhovka bridge. Simply supplying them is going to absorb tremendous Russian effort.

    It also means these forces cannot be rotated (should forces allow) or redeploy should Ukraine put their counter-offensive elsewhere, such as South from Dnipro.
    At some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, the Russians in Kherson are going to have the choice of either crossing back over the Deniper bridge on foot or by car, or suffering nightly attacks on their positions and their supply vehicles.

    Confining the enemy East of the river is a key strategic goal, which frees up a lot of defending forces to attack the remaining enemy from their North and West. It might also allow for UN or NATO peacekeepers to be stationed in the ‘safe’ West of the country, further protecting Ukranian supply lines and freeing up more of their troops.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    Mourdaunt was screwed because the party wanted to swing to the right and she was never going to be the face of that. If she had won, the right would have made her life hell.

    Your party does have a momentum like problem with the clique centred around the Daily Mail. Solving that is a problem bigger than Mourdaunt.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,727

    Jonathan said:

    One begins to wonder whether it was Truss lending Sunak votes as she flew under the radar. It was absolutely clear that Mourdaunt was the one she feared.

    Do you remember those heady days when half of PB were telling us how Kemi Badenoch would overtake Truss?

    PB has a bias to "unexpected results". We love hearing about 50-1 bets that came off, and it leads us to predict surprises. I've always thought Truss was likely to win because she's the closest fit to today's Tory membership, and although Badenoch certainly surprised on the upside, she started an a rank outsider and merely moved to credible also-ran.

    As spectators looking for fun, why not cheer on the long-shots? But it's unwise to bet the house on them. In the same way, it's possible that the next GE will be either a Labour landslide or a Tory triumph, but actually it's been clear for a long time that a Labour minority government is the most likely outcome - it's not as exciting as landslides, but it's the logical consequence of years of modest but consistent Labour polling leads, the closeness of Lab and LibDem outlooks, the bleak economic outlook, the lack of huge enthusiasm for Labour and the evident weariness of the Government.
    Not convinced. I think Badenoch was value whilst trading at the 16-35 range, possibly got too short in the days just before elimination. And hardly anyone was talking up the other outsiders like Javid, Hunt, The Hat and others. So the pb collective picked the best outsider and said to back her. She had a plausible path and was not far away. And of course literally no-one said to bet the house on her, or thought that wise, so a strange warning.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    Russia’s plans for post-war Europe. Great for Serbia and Ireland. Bad for Finland


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    Mordaunt had three options under those attacks:

    1) Make the reasonable case for reform of the Gender Recognition laws, towards Self ID* with protections in certain areas.

    2) Say that her views have changed and that she now thinks differently.

    3) lie and deny what was on the record.

    That she chose 3) shows both poor character and political judgement, perhaps driven by a culture of lying in government.

    *Self ID is as poor a nomenclature as "Defund the Police" or ""Black Lives Matter" as it too is easily mis-interpreted.

    The parliamentary proposals are essentially a demedicalisation of getting a GRC. The parliamentary proposals are here, and do include protections for sex aligned spaces where appropriate.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2018-0254/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,727
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    Mourdaunt was screwed because the party wanted to swing to the right and she was never going to be the face of that. If she had won, the right would have made her life hell.

    Your party does have a momentum like problem with the clique centred around the Daily Mail. Solving that is a problem bigger than Mourdaunt.
    It is not really a swing to the right, it is a swing to fantasy, lies and nostalgia. Tax cuts because that is what Thatcher did, but forgetting Thatcher was also in favour of a balanced budget, which these days would mean a cut in pensions and healthcare and taxes on asset owners. The members of course would not vote for that so instead vote for fantasy tax cuts funded on the never never.

    It is not right wing economics or economics at all, just voting for whoever promises them the most sweets.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    edited July 30

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    One has to admit that the last leg of Truss's ascent of the greasy pole has been more than impressive. Both Mordaunt and Sunak have been thoroughly dismantled by her team.

    Truss remains a comprehensive air head, nonetheless she appears to have some seriously clever and ruthless people behind the scenes. Are the Aussies involved? From what we have seen so far, they will make light work of the Labour Party.

    Continuity Johnson without the parties could see a swift polling lead for the Conservatives.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,466
    Leon said:

    Russia’s plans for post-war Europe. Great for Serbia and Ireland. Bad for Finland


    Haha! Bonkers. Loving the fact they’ve carved out a “kingdom of Wessex” leaving out the heartland and capital of Wessex and lumped in Devon and Cornwall which were never Wessex.

    Would assume this is a puss take but then I remember this is Russia so probably would be their plan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Given the toxic nature of the campaign will Mourdaunt serve under Truss?

    She might be wise to keep her distance in case things do go horribly wrong.

    Tugs and Wallace have nailed their colours to the mast, they look to be playing the Starmer game.

    If a clean break from the past is needed next time maybe better for Mordaunt to stay above the fray. Although history suggests it didn't work for Hunt.
    You would hope that Mordaunt would spend the time working out how to spot and then dismantle elephant traps. Especially those set by the Daily Mail. It was really surprising to see how badly she fared against the one issue that sank her - being painted as "woke".

    She needs far better people around her prepping her if there is to be a next time.
    She’d have been fine if her ‘wokeness’ had been confined to speeches, rather than actually introducing legislation that had clearly been written by Stonewall.
    Her twin-brother has probably cost her the top job.

    For now.
    I think you get once chance at the top job. She's done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    Happy Birthday, James Anderson.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/stats-age-defying-james-anderson-1326813

    And long may he continue as he's now the only international cricketer who is older than I am.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. 86, jein. I think Badenoch could have another tilt.

    The problem is being seen as a real contender and losing. If you're an outsider, especially on the young side, it matters less.
This discussion has been closed.