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Sunak edging closer in the CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen the next CON leader betting has got a tad tighter with Truss moving down a bit from the betting boost she got from making it to the final two.
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1.82 Liz Truss 55%
2.22 Rishi Sunak 45%
Next Conservative leader
1.79 Liz Truss 56%
2.26 Rishi Sunak 44%
Tbh it seems unlikely Boris would want a full-time job rather than a series of gigs.
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/dominic-cummings-says-boris-johnson-thinks-he-can-make-a-comeback-and-predicts-second-tory-leadership-race-before-2024/341681
https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/20/google_russia_android_malware/
% of Young adults (16-24) using each source for news
Instagram 46%
Facebook 40%
BBC One 36%
Twitter 35%
BBC website/app 29%
TikTok 27%
WhatsApp 23%
ITV/STV/UTV 20%
Snapchat 19%
BBC News Channel 17%
TikTok is now one of the top three most used sources of news for younger teens.
Top 10 news sources for teens aged 12-15
Used to follow news stories
Instagram 29%
TikTok 28%
YouTube 28%
ITV/STV/UTV 25%
BBC One/BBC Two 24%
Facebook 22%
Snapchat 19%
Sky News 19%
WhatsApp 17%
Twitter 13%
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/21/tiktok-is-fastest-growing-news-source-for-uk-adults-ofcom-finds
England 2.8
Germany 4
France 5
Sweden 7
Netherlands 18.5
126 bar
If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.
They'll be pleased with that.
The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.
Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
The Tory membership is, relative to the country as a whole, dominated by very old, rich, white men in the Home Counties with hard right wing views. Hence the garbage level quality of the leadership debates, dominated by largely irrelevant nonsense (bidding wars over tax cuts without any coherent plan to pay for them, and ridiculous arguments over how a minuscule minority group should or should not go about accessing the nation's few remaining public lavatories.)
The Conservatives are an aged, clapped out, reactionary cult that not only has no meaningful agenda to confront the legion of problems facing the country, but has no interest in developing one either. They exist to write angry letters in green ink about their own niche obsessions. After all, why worry about the sufferings of the young when you're all old, why concern yourself with the escalating cost of living when you're all minted, and why care about the long-term future when you won't live to see it?
Just checked my positions, got almost exactly twice the profitability on Sunak as Truss, but still ahead overall, even accounting for a dozen and more other bets now no longer active.
Might back Truss a little more...
I still think it could be close. Sunak v. Truss isn't going to be a 36-65% wipeout and plenty of party members will be guided by MPs, and polling on the next GE.
At the end of the day they pound the pavements and fundraise too.
Although my summary was more concise
Sunak fwiw is a bit better, I'd rate him at about the Ed Milliband level tbh
Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.
Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?
Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549714924695437313?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549713161556791301?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA
Slightly surprising given a majority of healthcare spending is on women (due to a combination of pregnancy and living longer, with the elderly likelier to have conditions).
A good outcome of this contest would be if we saw this for either of the candidates. I would like to see Kemi playing a major role for either of them, ideally for Rishi. Team building is a much underrated skill for a PM.
MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62246914
As for future chances, is it another example of ceiling/floor stuff? Rishi does the Lord Home thing more reliably, leading the Conservatives to a definite but dignified and recoverable defeat. Liz blows things up, which is almost certainly worse, but might somehow leave her master of the smouldering ruins.
The report, commissioned by Home Secretary Priti Patel, described the overall approach as "ineffective and possibly counter-productive".
Author Alex Downer, former leader of Australia's Liberal Party, criticised "a cycle of crisis management".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62244679
And there's more.
Operations at Heathrow Airport also come under scrutiny in the review.
Mr Downer said he witnessed queues of more than three hours that were the "visible manifestation" of poor long-term planning and ineffective recruitment by the Home Office.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62244679
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/womens-health-outcomes-is-there-a-gender-gap/
...Health gaps are differences in the prevalence of disease, health outcomes, or access to healthcare across different groups. A study by Manual, a wellbeing platform for men, found that in many countries, men are more likely to face greater health risks. However, the UK does not follow this trend. It was found to have the largest female health gap in the G20 and the 12th largest globally...
....Commenting on these findings, the Government said that there was strong evidence about the need for greater focus on women’s health. It also highlighted that although in the UK female life expectancy is higher than for men, women on average spend less of their life in good health compared to men. In addition, it noted that female life expectancy has been improving more slowly than male life expectancy since the 1980s...
Hope GCHQ are involved.
But, the MPs couldn't decide either.
You guys really have ballsed this up.
Truss... I can't see any reason to think she'll be any good as PM, although if she wins I hope I'm wrong. I can't get over the fact she abandoned her job of being at the G20 to flee back to the UK just because the leadership became available. She puts her own ambitions ahead of the job - and that's a bad sign.
I might be surprised on the upside, but I'd prefer Starmer to either of these two. It's also a shame that the Lib Dems are not more prominent.
I may reassess my Truss would be a disaster view.
Like Sunak resisted extra defence spending, he was Chancellor so he resisted extra spending on everything.
The premise I find a bit dubious is that being hawkish on China and supporting Ukraine go together. I think you have to prioritize. Nixon was serious about defeating Russia, so he mended fences with China. You can't really isolate Russia if you divide the world cleanly into two factions and they have what'll soon be the world's largest economy on their side.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2017to2019#health-state-life-expectancies-at-birth-in-the-uk
Predates the pandemic, though.
Will likely be quite different now.
The test will come this autumn as we start to look forward rather than back and people will rightly start looking far more seriously at the potential Labour and LD offerings at the next election and ignore the Conservatives who, with luck, will be consigned to a Liberal-length period in opposition.
I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
Truss:
Chancellor - Simon Clarke or Kwasi Kwarteng
Foreign sec - James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat
Home sec - Therese Coffey under consideration
Dorries & Rees-Mogg would both get cabinet roles
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8c35b2c6-085f-11ed-8c31-545bf77a6173?shareToken=31a5f3e8040a7558a9dbf8533547eca6
Truss has impressed allies as Foreign Secretary, and has been key in pushing others towards the actions taken against Russia. She also understands that China is the next big problem coming down the line.
Sunak is a much more transactional politician, by contrast.
Personally I think we should be kept out of US military adventures, on the other side of the world as Wilson did with Vietnam, and Blair failed to with Iraq. This is distinct from NATO and Russia, which is about our own defence and where siding with the US is very much in our own interests.
They are both clearly not well, just from watching them in public appearances.
Consider what you'd regret the most. You're ahead whatever happens, which is a great situation.
Pretty much, yes, absolutely it has, though as the article says Truss has been out in front of Biden and Blinken, and not just behind following them. Johnson was too.
ETA it might help to forget about money and think of what you could buy with the winnings. Two weeks at Center Parcs on Rishi; one week on Liz Truss, for instance.
Sunak would be very popular in India, so shifting India away from a pro-Russia stance. Sunak is also more willing to work with China, thereby destabilising another key Russian relationship.
Chancellor: Steve Barclay
Home Sec: Dominic Raab
Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid likely to return
Oliver Dowden tipped for CDL
Biden and the Democrats have been tougher on Russia and more like Truss in their views than the Orban/Trumpist/Corbynite extremists.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
Betfair next prime minister
1.76 Liz Truss 57%
2.34 Rishi Sunak 43%
Next Conservative leader
1.76 Liz Truss 57%
2.32 Rishi Sunak 43%
BigDog rides back into town in time for another eighty seat majority.
Not sure I see it myself.
Failure to do so leaves you with ossified antiquated views like Corbyn still viewing the world exactly the same as he did in the 1970s.
It's good to see that even the Guardian acknowleges that female life expectancy is higher and that female GPs outnumber male ones, so it might not be down to patriachal attitudes. But they rely on subjective measures to make their points that more needs to be spent on female health. But if we're talking about subjective views, it's long been suspected that men are more reluctant to consult doctors in the first place.
It's good that the life expectancy gap is narrowing, but as overall prosperity increases that's what we would expect.
Whatever happened to "Mustn't grumble."
"Health inequality?" There is, but men die younger. Live with it. Men have been doing so for centuries.
The market rates Sunak a ~43% chance.
If you think his chances are less, or approximately equal to that, then cash out. Higher than that, hold on, or increase your stake.
Apologies if I’m stating the obvious, but most punters don’t think like this.
Another way of looking at it is to calculate your theoretical cashout position, then apply the Kelly criterion. Would you be comfortable gambling that % of your bankroll/net assets?
Well done on your bet, btw.
In fact China's wariness of supporting Russia this year has been one of the surprises of the year so far and seems to come from the fact that they've been caught off-guard by the forcefulness of the West's response to Russia's invasion and they've wisely decided to stand back and not get caught in the middle.
A more "realist" response from the West would make China being themselves "realists" and playing both sides off against each other as they'd normally do more likely, not less likely.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1549791598019575808
Age-adjusted mortality rates from COVID in the UK are lowest in people identifying as White. Police killings are also commoner in non-White people.
Older age is a big predictor of COVID-19 mortality. Police killings tend to be in men in their 20s, but I’ve not seen clear stats on this.
However, anyone who thinks Nadine Dorries should not be fired from the Cabinet using Mr Dancer’s space cannon is clearly utterly unfit to be PM.
My instinct would be to lay off slowly while Sunak is odds-against, and watch how the contest develops. Ideally you want to get to about £2k win on Truss, vs £3.5k win on Sunak - then your discussion becomes where to take the holiday, rather than whether or not to take it at all.