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Sunak edging closer in the CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,556
edited July 2022 in General
imageSunak edging closer in the CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen the next CON leader betting has got a tad tighter with Truss moving down a bit from the betting boost she got from making it to the final two.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Bet365 is boosting Liz Truss to 4/6.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.82 Liz Truss 55%
    2.22 Rishi Sunak 45%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.79 Liz Truss 56%
    2.26 Rishi Sunak 44%
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    edited July 2022
    FPT what Boris did next. Last night's Sky newspaper preview speculated that Boris might follow George Osborne and SamCam's sister as editor of the Evening Standard, which is owned by his mate Lord Lebedev.

    Tbh it seems unlikely Boris would want a full-time job rather than a series of gigs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Dominic Cummings has said Boris Johnson “thinks he can make a comeback” while also predicting a second Conservative Party leadership race before 2024.
    https://www.gbnews.uk/news/dominic-cummings-says-boris-johnson-thinks-he-can-make-a-comeback-and-predicts-second-tory-leadership-race-before-2024/341681
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Kremlin-backed criminals are trying to trick people into downloading Android malware by spoofing a Ukrainian military group, according to Google security researchers.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/20/google_russia_android_malware/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TikTok is now the sixth most used source of news among young adults

    % of Young adults (16-24) using each source for news

    Instagram 46%
    Facebook 40%
    BBC One 36%
    Twitter 35%
    BBC website/app 29%
    TikTok 27%
    WhatsApp 23%
    ITV/STV/UTV 20%
    Snapchat 19%
    BBC News Channel 17%

    TikTok is now one of the top three most used sources of news for younger teens.

    Top 10 news sources for teens aged 12-15
    Used to follow news stories

    Instagram 29%
    TikTok 28%
    YouTube 28%
    ITV/STV/UTV 25%
    BBC One/BBC Two 24%
    Facebook 22%
    Snapchat 19%
    Sky News 19%
    WhatsApp 17%
    Twitter 13%

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/21/tiktok-is-fastest-growing-news-source-for-uk-adults-ofcom-finds
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Euro 2022 - Winner

    England 2.8
    Germany 4
    France 5
    Sweden 7
    Netherlands 18.5
    126 bar
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    StuartDickson said:

    TikTok is now the sixth most used source of news among young adults

    % of Young adults (16-24) using each source for news

    Instagram 46%
    Facebook 40%
    BBC One 36%
    Twitter 35%
    BBC website/app 29%
    TikTok 27%
    WhatsApp 23%
    ITV/STV/UTV 20%
    Snapchat 19%
    BBC News Channel 17%

    TikTok is now one of the top three most used sources of news for younger teens.

    Top 10 news sources for teens aged 12-15
    Used to follow news stories

    Instagram 29%
    TikTok 28%
    YouTube 28%
    ITV/STV/UTV 25%
    BBC One/BBC Two 24%
    Facebook 22%
    Snapchat 19%
    Sky News 19%
    WhatsApp 17%
    Twitter 13%

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/21/tiktok-is-fastest-growing-news-source-for-uk-adults-ofcom-finds

    I'm surprised BBC One is so high, tbf.

    They'll be pleased with that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,010
    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    The membership polling hasn't been THAT erratic, Truss has consistently held a lead over Sunak and I think she's the value at the current prices.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,748
    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    Asking Boris not to lie is cruel.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,748
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    No he had to go. But the Tories are weakened and their prospects at the next election diminished. SKS is extremely mediocre in presentation and persuasion, no matter how good he has proved to be at party management but the gap will be small to non existent now, whoever wins. Labour's chances are clearly on the up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Good morning, everyone.

    Just checked my positions, got almost exactly twice the profitability on Sunak as Truss, but still ahead overall, even accounting for a dozen and more other bets now no longer active.

    Might back Truss a little more...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
    I expect Sunak is going to have to pledge to copper-plate NHS and Pensions spending and say that only he can guarantee this with his fiscal responsibility.

    I still think it could be close. Sunak v. Truss isn't going to be a 36-65% wipeout and plenty of party members will be guided by MPs, and polling on the next GE.

    At the end of the day they pound the pavements and fundraise too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,748
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    Asking Boris not to lie is cruel.
    Not really. He would promise not to and that would be the first of the new lies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,010
    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
    Just as with the rise of Jeremy Corbyn, this is what happens when you let the party members have the final say over the leadership: instead of the choice at least being that of the elected representatives, some of whom might actually think about what their voters want, it ends up being made by a tiny, extreme and self-indulgent subset of the general population.

    The Tory membership is, relative to the country as a whole, dominated by very old, rich, white men in the Home Counties with hard right wing views. Hence the garbage level quality of the leadership debates, dominated by largely irrelevant nonsense (bidding wars over tax cuts without any coherent plan to pay for them, and ridiculous arguments over how a minuscule minority group should or should not go about accessing the nation's few remaining public lavatories.)

    The Conservatives are an aged, clapped out, reactionary cult that not only has no meaningful agenda to confront the legion of problems facing the country, but has no interest in developing one either. They exist to write angry letters in green ink about their own niche obsessions. After all, why worry about the sufferings of the young when you're all old, why concern yourself with the escalating cost of living when you're all minted, and why care about the long-term future when you won't live to see it?
    Yes

    Although my summary was more concise ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    No he had to go. But the Tories are weakened and their prospects at the next election diminished. SKS is extremely mediocre in presentation and persuasion, no matter how good he has proved to be at party management but the gap will be small to non existent now, whoever wins. Labour's chances are clearly on the up.
    If the Tories can't find better than Boris Johnson they don't deserve to exist as a party.
    Sunak fwiw is a bit better, I'd rate him at about the Ed Milliband level tbh
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    edited July 2022
    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,622
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    You want to talk about cruelty, talk to the people who have had their UC uplift cancelled in the face of a cost of living disaster, or the refugees who face deportation to Rwanda. Boris Johnson's lies have destroyed trust in politics for a generation. He doesn't deserve an ounce of sympathy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,602
    edited July 2022
    We have already started to see this polling from Find Out Now for instance. Little difference between them, though the LDs do better v Truss and RefUK do better v Sunak
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549714924695437313?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549713161556791301?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Mr. CD13, I did hear something about doctors getting more training for women's medical matters.

    Slightly surprising given a majority of healthcare spending is on women (due to a combination of pregnancy and living longer, with the elderly likelier to have conditions).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    One problem Mordaunt might have had was her lack of any obvious chancellor.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,622
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,010
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Isn't that some wacky far right opinion site?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,010
    Pulpstar said:

    One problem Mordaunt might have had was her lack of any obvious chancellor.

    I thought that was promised to Leadsom?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
    Just as with the rise of Jeremy Corbyn, this is what happens when you let the party members have the final say over the leadership: instead of the choice at least being that of the elected representatives, some of whom might actually think about what their voters want, it ends up being made by a tiny, extreme and self-indulgent subset of the general population.

    The Tory membership is, relative to the country as a whole, dominated by very old, rich, white men in the Home Counties with hard right wing views. Hence the garbage level quality of the leadership debates, dominated by largely irrelevant nonsense (bidding wars over tax cuts without any coherent plan to pay for them, and ridiculous arguments over how a minuscule minority group should or should not go about accessing the nation's few remaining public lavatories.)

    The Conservatives are an aged, clapped out, reactionary cult that not only has no meaningful agenda to confront the legion of problems facing the country, but has no interest in developing one either. They exist to write angry letters in green ink about their own niche obsessions. After all, why worry about the sufferings of the young when you're all old, why concern yourself with the escalating cost of living when you're all minted, and why care about the long-term future when you won't live to see it?
    Yes

    Although my summary was more concise ;)
    You both ignore a key fact, however. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak *were* chosen by MPs after five rounds of voting. You can't blame the membership for either candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,010
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
    Just as with the rise of Jeremy Corbyn, this is what happens when you let the party members have the final say over the leadership: instead of the choice at least being that of the elected representatives, some of whom might actually think about what their voters want, it ends up being made by a tiny, extreme and self-indulgent subset of the general population.

    The Tory membership is, relative to the country as a whole, dominated by very old, rich, white men in the Home Counties with hard right wing views. Hence the garbage level quality of the leadership debates, dominated by largely irrelevant nonsense (bidding wars over tax cuts without any coherent plan to pay for them, and ridiculous arguments over how a minuscule minority group should or should not go about accessing the nation's few remaining public lavatories.)

    The Conservatives are an aged, clapped out, reactionary cult that not only has no meaningful agenda to confront the legion of problems facing the country, but has no interest in developing one either. They exist to write angry letters in green ink about their own niche obsessions. After all, why worry about the sufferings of the young when you're all old, why concern yourself with the escalating cost of living when you're all minted, and why care about the long-term future when you won't live to see it?
    Yes

    Although my summary was more concise ;)
    You both ignore a key fact, however. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak *were* chosen by MPs after five rounds of voting. You can't blame the membership for either candidate.
    I can - they selected these numpties in the first place!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,748
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    One of the things that surprised me about the debates to date is that they were very largely played on Rishi's home turf of economics because of the CoL criris. There was some discussion of trans matters etc but that is largely irrelevant. Being PM, however, is not just about economics and Rishi undoubtedly has work to do in areas he has little experience of compared to Truss and has indeed looked naive at times. It will be a test for him and his positions are going to have to evolve somewhat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,022
    Pulpstar said:

    One problem Mordaunt might have had was her lack of any obvious chancellor.

    It hardly matters now. We shall never know.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,748
    Pulpstar said:

    One problem Mordaunt might have had was her lack of any obvious chancellor.

    Its a problem for them all at the moment. By far the most successful leaders have been teams such as Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osborne. One person cannot cope with the job without someone they trust having their back, a Willie, as Maggie put it. Not least of Boris's flaws was his lone wolf personna with no close allies that he could rely on of any substance.

    A good outcome of this contest would be if we saw this for either of the candidates. I would like to see Kemi playing a major role for either of them, ideally for Rishi. Team building is a much underrated skill for a PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,983
    edited July 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Had made around £13 profit from the last two candidates. Have wagered it on Sunak.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Ukraine war: CIA chief says no intelligence that Putin is in bad health
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62246914
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,063
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    So the pensioners are going to shaft the country yet again…
    Just as with the rise of Jeremy Corbyn, this is what happens when you let the party members have the final say over the leadership: instead of the choice at least being that of the elected representatives, some of whom might actually think about what their voters want, it ends up being made by a tiny, extreme and self-indulgent subset of the general population.

    The Tory membership is, relative to the country as a whole, dominated by very old, rich, white men in the Home Counties with hard right wing views. Hence the garbage level quality of the leadership debates, dominated by largely irrelevant nonsense (bidding wars over tax cuts without any coherent plan to pay for them, and ridiculous arguments over how a minuscule minority group should or should not go about accessing the nation's few remaining public lavatories.)

    The Conservatives are an aged, clapped out, reactionary cult that not only has no meaningful agenda to confront the legion of problems facing the country, but has no interest in developing one either. They exist to write angry letters in green ink about their own niche obsessions. After all, why worry about the sufferings of the young when you're all old, why concern yourself with the escalating cost of living when you're all minted, and why care about the long-term future when you won't live to see it?
    Yes

    Although my summary was more concise ;)
    You both ignore a key fact, however. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak *were* chosen by MPs after five rounds of voting. You can't blame the membership for either candidate.
    Rishi and Liz were the standout candidates in terms of possibly being able to do the job from day one. (Hunt might have been better, but that wasn't realistic.) The reason for that is decisions taken over the last few years (mostly by Not-yet-dead Dog) coming home to roost now.

    As for future chances, is it another example of ceiling/floor stuff? Rishi does the Lord Home thing more reliably, leading the Conservatives to a definite but dignified and recoverable defeat. Liz blows things up, which is almost certainly worse, but might somehow leave her master of the smouldering ruins.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    The Border Force, which polices the UK's borders, may have made the small boats crisis in the Channel worse, an independent report has found.

    The report, commissioned by Home Secretary Priti Patel, described the overall approach as "ineffective and possibly counter-productive".

    Author Alex Downer, former leader of Australia's Liberal Party, criticised "a cycle of crisis management".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62244679

    And there's more.

    Operations at Heathrow Airport also come under scrutiny in the review.

    Mr Downer said he witnessed queues of more than three hours that were the "visible manifestation" of poor long-term planning and ineffective recruitment by the Home Office.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62244679
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Ukraine war: CIA chief says no intelligence that Putin is in bad health
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62246914

    I'd love the to be true and for Putin to be in a world of pain and discomfort, but all these reports of his ill-health do appear to be grounded more in hope than evidence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,983
    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Our own Parliament apparently thinks differently.

    https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/womens-health-outcomes-is-there-a-gender-gap/
    ...Health gaps are differences in the prevalence of disease, health outcomes, or access to healthcare across different groups. A study by Manual, a wellbeing platform for men, found that in many countries, men are more likely to face greater health risks. However, the UK does not follow this trend. It was found to have the largest female health gap in the G20 and the 12th largest globally...

    ....Commenting on these findings, the Government said that there was strong evidence about the need for greater focus on women’s health. It also highlighted that although in the UK female life expectancy is higher than for men, women on average spend less of their life in good health compared to men. In addition, it noted that female life expectancy has been improving more slowly than male life expectancy since the 1980s...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    If you read the article, you'll see it's about standing up for democratic values to China and Russia and not selling our souls to them for an extra quick buck.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,189
    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

    I'm more worried about the Russians fiddling with the online voting to get Sunak in (or at least undermining the election).

    Hope GCHQ are involved.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One problem Mordaunt might have had was her lack of any obvious chancellor.

    Its a problem for them all at the moment. By far the most successful leaders have been teams such as Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osborne. One person cannot cope with the job without someone they trust having their back, a Willie, as Maggie put it. Not least of Boris's flaws was his lone wolf personna with no close allies that he could rely on of any substance.

    A good outcome of this contest would be if we saw this for either of the candidates. I would like to see Kemi playing a major role for either of them, ideally for Rishi. Team building is a much underrated skill for a PM.
    You are correct about the importance of teams in the British political context. I think actually the recent tendency to duopolies has only been good whilst it lasted and has meant the rest of the Cabinet has tended to atrophy. I think we might need to return to government with strength in depth. So for instance if Rishi wins he really ought to make Liz Chancellor. If Liz wins the she isn’t going to put Rishi back in the Treasury but the Foreign Office would be a good idea. In either case it would at least look like trying to bring the party together in a grown up way.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

    There's probably a distinction to be drawn in choosing a LOTO in this way, and a sitting PM.

    But, the MPs couldn't decide either.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,775
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    We have already started to see this polling from Find Out Now for instance. Little difference between them, though the LDs do better v Truss and RefUK do better v Sunak
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549714924695437313?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549713161556791301?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA

    So we are looking at the Conservative Party on about 25% soon. I'm not surprised.

    You guys really have ballsed this up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133
    Sunak will be a very uninspiring PM; greyer than Major and with even less relatability. If he doesn't get the ERG loons on board, then he will face Major-style dissent amongst his MPs.

    Truss... I can't see any reason to think she'll be any good as PM, although if she wins I hope I'm wrong. I can't get over the fact she abandoned her job of being at the G20 to flee back to the UK just because the leadership became available. She puts her own ambitions ahead of the job - and that's a bad sign.

    I might be surprised on the upside, but I'd prefer Starmer to either of these two. It's also a shame that the Lib Dems are not more prominent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Isn't that some wacky far right opinion site?
    Play the ball.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,218
    Presumably Jenrick is going to get a big job for services to arslikkan if Sunak goes all the way, and I see Hancock is also a Rishi man.

    I may reassess my Truss would be a disaster view.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,733
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Isn't that some wacky far right opinion site?
    Yup but in this case I think the specifics are also found elsewhere.

    Like Sunak resisted extra defence spending, he was Chancellor so he resisted extra spending on everything.

    The premise I find a bit dubious is that being hawkish on China and supporting Ukraine go together. I think you have to prioritize. Nixon was serious about defeating Russia, so he mended fences with China. You can't really isolate Russia if you divide the world cleanly into two factions and they have what'll soon be the world's largest economy on their side.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,910
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    It's hard not to conclude that Boris, even in his current state with his many flaws so cruely exposed, would have wiped the floor with either of the remaining candidates. We had reached the point, in fact gone well past the point, where he had to go, but the Tories do not have another campaigner of his ilk.

    The challenge for both of them will be to reach beyond natural Tory supporters but of course the next 6 weeks are all about doing the exact opposite and focusing on the members and what they want. This is likely to lead to a series of commitments by both candidates which will prove burdensome when they pivot to the country as a whole. I am not sure that this is going to boost the Tories' prospects much. All they can hope is that the currents and storms currently lashing the country abate a bit by the time this is over.

    Cruelly exposed flaws ?!

    Sorry but you make it sound like you want him back like an old flame or something
    No he had to go. But the Tories are weakened and their prospects at the next election diminished. SKS is extremely mediocre in presentation and persuasion, no matter how good he has proved to be at party management but the gap will be small to non existent now, whoever wins. Labour's chances are clearly on the up.
    if only the cruel liar hadn't purged anyone halfway capable
  • TresTres Posts: 2,910
    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Counting down the hours till International Men's Day?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,775
    edited July 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

    I'm more worried about the Russians fiddling with the online voting to get Sunak in (or at least undermining the election).

    Hope GCHQ are involved.
    Why would the Russians want to tamper with a system that is self-destructing?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,983
    .
    Nigelb said:

    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Our own Parliament apparently thinks differently.

    https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/womens-health-outcomes-is-there-a-gender-gap/
    ...Health gaps are differences in the prevalence of disease, health outcomes, or access to healthcare across different groups. A study by Manual, a wellbeing platform for men, found that in many countries, men are more likely to face greater health risks. However, the UK does not follow this trend. It was found to have the largest female health gap in the G20 and the 12th largest globally...

    ....Commenting on these findings, the Government said that there was strong evidence about the need for greater focus on women’s health. It also highlighted that although in the UK female life expectancy is higher than for men, women on average spend less of their life in good health compared to men. In addition, it noted that female life expectancy has been improving more slowly than male life expectancy since the 1980s...
    Some ONS figures here:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2017to2019#health-state-life-expectancies-at-birth-in-the-uk

    Predates the pandemic, though.
    Will likely be quite different now.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,835
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sunak will be a very uninspiring PM; greyer than Major and with even less relatability. If he doesn't get the ERG loons on board, then he will face Major-style dissent amongst his MPs.

    Truss... I can't see any reason to think she'll be any good as PM, although if she wins I hope I'm wrong. I can't get over the fact she abandoned her job of being at the G20 to flee back to the UK just because the leadership became available. She puts her own ambitions ahead of the job - and that's a bad sign.

    I might be surprised on the upside, but I'd prefer Starmer to either of these two. It's also a shame that the Lib Dems are not more prominent.

    Given it's been wall to wall coverage for the Conservatives since the Tiverton & Honiton by-election (remind me who won that?), it's not surprising neither Starmer nor Davey have had much of a look-in.

    The test will come this autumn as we start to look forward rather than back and people will rightly start looking far more seriously at the potential Labour and LD offerings at the next election and ignore the Conservatives who, with luck, will be consigned to a Liberal-length period in opposition.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,165
    Truss and Sunak are already planning their cabinets

    Truss:

    Chancellor - Simon Clarke or Kwasi Kwarteng

    Foreign sec - James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat

    Home sec - Therese Coffey under consideration

    Dorries & Rees-Mogg would both get cabinet roles

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8c35b2c6-085f-11ed-8c31-545bf77a6173?shareToken=31a5f3e8040a7558a9dbf8533547eca6
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    That’s a good piece, especially coming from abroad.

    Truss has impressed allies as Foreign Secretary, and has been key in pushing others towards the actions taken against Russia. She also understands that China is the next big problem coming down the line.

    Sunak is a much more transactional politician, by contrast.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    As much as the choice is uninspiring, I still think it unravels for Truss in the next 6 weeks as she has to do more debates / interviews
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,622
    Casino_Royale said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    If you read the article, you'll see it's about standing up for democratic values to China and Russia and not selling our souls to them for an extra quick buck.
    It is all about China and whether we can be relied upon to support the US in a hot war in Taiwan. Presumably the Examiner (owned by an Evangelical homophobe and anti-abortion billionaire - just so we know where this is coming from) thinks that Truss would commit UK forces to the defence of the island.
    Personally I think we should be kept out of US military adventures, on the other side of the world as Wilson did with Vietnam, and Blair failed to with Iraq. This is distinct from NATO and Russia, which is about our own defence and where siding with the US is very much in our own interests.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Ukraine war: CIA chief says no intelligence that Putin is in bad health
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62246914

    Do they say the same about Biden too?

    They are both clearly not well, just from watching them in public appearances.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

    I'm more worried about the Russians fiddling with the online voting to get Sunak in (or at least undermining the election).

    Hope GCHQ are involved.
    Why would Russia prefer Sunak over Liz Truss if the latter is forecast to crash and burn within two years? Has Putin said anything about Russian cheese exports?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Casino_Royale said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    If you read the article, you'll see it's about standing up for democratic values to China and Russia and not selling our souls to them for an extra quick buck.
    I would be a bit cautious about this. Sunak was playing the role of chancellor, Truss was playing the role of Foreign Secretary. So Truss would inevitably be more a bit more hawkish. It would be different if either of them were PM. Agree that Truss is sounding more positive, but 3% of GDP on defence has significant consequences.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Mr. Roberts, I mostly do bet-and-forget with F1 stuff, but in a case like this I usually try and get a more or less even profit margin, with a little more on the initial bet.

    Consider what you'd regret the most. You're ahead whatever happens, which is a great situation.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    Has Putinguy1983 hacked your account?

    Pretty much, yes, absolutely it has, though as the article says Truss has been out in front of Biden and Blinken, and not just behind following them. Johnson was too.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,063
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss and Sunak are already planning their cabinets

    Truss:

    Chancellor - Simon Clarke or Kwasi Kwarteng

    Foreign sec - James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat

    Home sec - Therese Coffey under consideration

    Dorries & Rees-Mogg would both get cabinet roles

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8c35b2c6-085f-11ed-8c31-545bf77a6173?shareToken=31a5f3e8040a7558a9dbf8533547eca6

    Is that a leak from Team Rishi?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Casino_Royale said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    If you read the article, you'll see it's about standing up for democratic values to China and Russia and not selling our souls to them for an extra quick buck.
    Whose democratic values, though? The Republican party has pretty conclusively proved it does not believe in democracy, it just believes in freedom of action for itself and its supporters. On this side of the Atlantic, neither Truss nor Sunak has demonstrated any commitment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. Washington Examiner/Spectator cheerleading for the likes of Orban indicates a very skewed understanding of what freedom actually means. Not being Russia or China is not the benchmark.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    edited July 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
    There is an old City saying that it is never too soon to take a profit. If you have a large bet on Sunak, you can afford to adjust it so you get the same whoever wins, or a lot on one but still a respectable amount on the other.

    ETA it might help to forget about money and think of what you could buy with the winnings. Two weeks at Center Parcs on Rishi; one week on Liz Truss, for instance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,022
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    From soundings last night Tory party member views seem to be all over the place - and unpredictably so. Plenty who detest candidates on both sides.

    If I had to guess I'd say younger (by which I mean under 60) working professionals in the Tory party membership prefer Rishi but there aren't as many of them.

    It does raise the question of how democratic it is to select a new PM in this manner.
    MPs have their own electoral mandates, so their choice is defensible.
    The choice of a tiny portion of the electorate, unrepresentative of even Conservative voters, is a pretty dubious one.

    I'm more worried about the Russians fiddling with the online voting to get Sunak in (or at least undermining the election).

    Hope GCHQ are involved.
    Why would Russia prefer Sunak over Liz Truss if the latter is forecast to crash and burn within two years? Has Putin said anything about Russian cheese exports?
    I think the opposite. Russia wants to prevent what it sees as encirclement, and over recent years India and China have both been supportive at least of Russia.

    Sunak would be very popular in India, so shifting India away from a pro-Russia stance. Sunak is also more willing to work with China, thereby destabilising another key Russian relationship.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,165
    Sunak potential Cabinet:

    Chancellor: Steve Barclay

    Home Sec: Dominic Raab

    Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid likely to return

    Oliver Dowden tipped for CDL
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    SouthamObserver said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is strongly influencing me. Sunak's defence and foreign policy is appalling and hopelessly naïve:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/either-liz-truss-or-rishi-sunak-will-be-britains-next-prime-minister-truss-would-be-a-better-us-ally

    Because making ourselves America's b*tch has always worked out so well for us.
    If you read the article, you'll see it's about standing up for democratic values to China and Russia and not selling our souls to them for an extra quick buck.
    Whose democratic values, though? The Republican party has pretty conclusively proved it does not believe in democracy, it just believes in freedom of action for itself and its supporters. On this side of the Atlantic, neither Truss nor Sunak has demonstrated any commitment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. Washington Examiner/Spectator cheerleading for the likes of Orban indicates a very skewed understanding of what freedom actually means. Not being Russia or China is not the benchmark.

    Except you've got it backwards, the Republican party has too much of the "realist" pandering to Russia in its views, a bit like Sunak and a few people here. Oh and so has Orban too who has dragged his heals in sanctions even more than Germany and France.

    Biden and the Democrats have been tougher on Russia and more like Truss in their views than the Orban/Trumpist/Corbynite extremists.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Dr. Foxy, willing to work with China is not a plus. That was one of the most naive approaches of Cameron-Osborne, and the West generally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,165
    Liz Truss(May 2016) - "We've got to be very careful about taking that single market for granted & being outside that SM. The single market is really crucial for food & drink exports... it's really crucial." https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1228351903232413698/video/1
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Tres said:

    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Counting down the hours till International Men's Day?
    This is the problem with a post truth society driven by identity politics and intersectionality. There are undoubtedly health problems that need addressing for both men and women, but if everything is wrapped up in an overriding narrative of addressing injustices and inequalities against a specific deprived group then it becomes hard to work out what the truth is, because any dissent from the 'narrative' puts you at odds with the zeitgeist.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.82 Liz Truss 55%
    2.22 Rishi Sunak 45%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.79 Liz Truss 56%
    2.26 Rishi Sunak 44%

    Bookmakers now have 8/11 Truss and 5/4 Rishi generally available.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.76 Liz Truss 57%
    2.34 Rishi Sunak 43%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.76 Liz Truss 57%
    2.32 Rishi Sunak 43%
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited July 2022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxy, willing to work with China is not a plus. That was one of the most naive approaches of Cameron-Osborne, and the West generally.

    The hard problem is that, from a very strategic perspective, ideally we need to work with Russia to contain China. There were many missed opportunities over the last 2-3 decades on this front, and the current situation is a tragedy that should have been avoided.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    edited July 2022
    darkage said:

    Tres said:

    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Counting down the hours till International Men's Day?
    This is the problem with a post truth society driven by identity politics and intersectionality. There are undoubtedly health problems that need addressing for both men and women, but if everything is wrapped up in an overriding narrative of addressing injustices and inequalities against a specific deprived group then it becomes hard to work out what the truth is, because any dissent from the 'narrative' puts you at odds with the zeitgeist.

    Perhaps but do not overlook that the easiest way of telling if there is a problem is to compare like-for-like across different groups. Is Covid (or are the police) killing more oldies than youngsters, more Blacks than Whites, and yes, more women than men?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,723
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    HYUFD said:

    We have already started to see this polling from Find Out Now for instance. Little difference between them, though the LDs do better v Truss and RefUK do better v Sunak
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549714924695437313?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1549713161556791301?s=20&t=4FE2mwIvBwDvQGvuLzsDCA

    So we are looking at the Conservative Party on about 25% soon. I'm not surprised.

    You guys really have ballsed this up.
    Isn't this the masterplan?

    BigDog rides back into town in time for another eighty seat majority.

    Not sure I see it myself.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Scott_xP said:

    Sunak potential Cabinet:

    Chancellor: Steve Barclay

    Home Sec: Dominic Raab

    Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid likely to return

    Oliver Dowden tipped for CDL

    Barclay makes Alistair Darling look interesting. It’s hardly heavyweight. Also it seems the intent is to outboring Starmer which seems the wrong approach entirely. There needs to be a Cabinet with heft not one that is 50 shades of beige.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
    There is an old City saying that it is never too soon to take a profit. If you have a large bet on Sunak, you can afford to adjust it so you get the same whoever wins, or a lot on one but still a respectable amount on the other.

    ETA it might help to forget about money and think of what you could buy with the winnings. Two weeks at Center Parcs on Rishi; one week on Liz Truss, for instance.
    That's an interesting thought. As it stands, I've been thinking that £5k on Sunak (well wittled down a bit to just over £4700 via trading to be green on everyone else) I've been thinking could pay for eg an all inclusive family holiday to the Dominican Republic - but locking in less than that could be good too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Truss on R4 presenting a compelling case. Good grief.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxy, willing to work with China is not a plus. That was one of the most naive approaches of Cameron-Osborne, and the West generally.

    That's as maybe, but from the Russian perspective a rapprochement between China and the West is a bad thing, and it was the Russian perspective I was discussing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,723
    Scott_xP said:

    Sunak potential Cabinet:

    Chancellor: Steve Barclay

    Home Sec: Dominic Raab

    Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid likely to return

    Oliver Dowden tipped for CDL

    That looks like a more inept rabble than Truss's effort that you posted earlier (save for the JRM and Dorries inclusion).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss(May 2016) - "We've got to be very careful about taking that single market for granted & being outside that SM. The single market is really crucial for food & drink exports... it's really crucial." https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1228351903232413698/video/1

    Its always a strength to be able to put your hands up and admit you made a mistake in the past, as Liz has done about that.

    Failure to do so leaves you with ossified antiquated views like Corbyn still viewing the world exactly the same as he did in the 1970s.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,715
    Mr. Darkage, perhaps, but Putin's KGB-imperialist way of doing business made trust difficult. Hard to try and ally with someone when they use chemical weaponry and radioactive poison on your territory.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr b,

    It's good to see that even the Guardian acknowleges that female life expectancy is higher and that female GPs outnumber male ones, so it might not be down to patriachal attitudes. But they rely on subjective measures to make their points that more needs to be spent on female health. But if we're talking about subjective views, it's long been suspected that men are more reluctant to consult doctors in the first place.

    It's good that the life expectancy gap is narrowing, but as overall prosperity increases that's what we would expect.

    Whatever happened to "Mustn't grumble."

    "Health inequality?" There is, but men die younger. Live with it. Men have been doing so for centuries.








  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited July 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
    Personally, I’d advise treating your bet as purely a value proposition. Ignore all other logic/emotion.

    The market rates Sunak a ~43% chance.

    If you think his chances are less, or approximately equal to that, then cash out. Higher than that, hold on, or increase your stake.

    Apologies if I’m stating the obvious, but most punters don’t think like this.

    Another way of looking at it is to calculate your theoretical cashout position, then apply the Kelly criterion. Would you be comfortable gambling that % of your bankroll/net assets?

    Well done on your bet, btw.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,723
    Jonathan said:

    Truss on R4 presenting a compelling case. Good grief.

    Is that a parody post?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,105
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxy, willing to work with China is not a plus. That was one of the most naive approaches of Cameron-Osborne, and the West generally.

    That's as maybe, but from the Russian perspective a rapprochement between China and the West is a bad thing, and it was the Russian perspective I was discussing.
    The UK being willing to work with China does not mean that China won't work with Russia as a result. China is more than happy to play both sides off against each other and profit from both sides.

    In fact China's wariness of supporting Russia this year has been one of the surprises of the year so far and seems to come from the fact that they've been caught off-guard by the forcefulness of the West's response to Russia's invasion and they've wisely decided to stand back and not get caught in the middle.

    A more "realist" response from the West would make China being themselves "realists" and playing both sides off against each other as they'd normally do more likely, not less likely.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Mexicanpete said:

    Jonathan said:

    Truss on R4 presenting a compelling case. Good grief.

    Is that a parody post?
    Note, I didn’t specify what compelling case she is presenting.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,165
    Team Truss obviously very happy. Team Sunak very happy. But perhaps the happiest people I’ve spoken to this afternoon are Labour people… Mordaunt was, by some way, the candidate that there were most worried about. They’ve been hoping for some time it would be Sunak V Truss.
    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1549791598019575808
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,005
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    darkage said:

    Tres said:

    CD13 said:

    I heard about something called the "health equality gap" this week. I assumed that American women were complaining about the horrible unfairness of being forced to live five years longer on average than men. Obviously down to the Patriachy.

    Surely having a prostate and much higher testosterone levels had something to do with it?

    Silly me, I should have known better. Those nasty male doctors have been ignoring female illnesses. Perhaps they should invent a new speciality called gynaecology to go with obstetrics. Just a thought.

    Counting down the hours till International Men's Day?
    This is the problem with a post truth society driven by identity politics and intersectionality. There are undoubtedly health problems that need addressing for both men and women, but if everything is wrapped up in an overriding narrative of addressing injustices and inequalities against a specific deprived group then it becomes hard to work out what the truth is, because any dissent from the 'narrative' puts you at odds with the zeitgeist.

    Perhaps but do not overlook that the easiest way of telling if there is a problem is to compare like-for-like across different groups. Is Covid (or are the police) killing more oldies than youngsters, more Blacks than Whites, and yes, more women than men?
    Killings by the police in the UK are very rare and almost exclusively of men. UK COVID-19 deaths are slightly higher in men.

    Age-adjusted mortality rates from COVID in the UK are lowest in people identifying as White. Police killings are also commoner in non-White people.

    Older age is a big predictor of COVID-19 mortality. Police killings tend to be in men in their 20s, but I’ve not seen clear stats on this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,063
    Scott_xP said:

    Sunak potential Cabinet:

    Chancellor: Steve Barclay

    Home Sec: Dominic Raab

    Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid likely to return

    Oliver Dowden tipped for CDL

    Sheesh. Neither is inspiring.

    However, anyone who thinks Nadine Dorries should not be fired from the Cabinet using Mr Dancer’s space cannon is clearly utterly unfit to be PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
    There is an old City saying that it is never too soon to take a profit. If you have a large bet on Sunak, you can afford to adjust it so you get the same whoever wins, or a lot on one but still a respectable amount on the other.

    ETA it might help to forget about money and think of what you could buy with the winnings. Two weeks at Center Parcs on Rishi; one week on Liz Truss, for instance.
    That's an interesting thought. As it stands, I've been thinking that £5k on Sunak (well wittled down a bit to just over £4700 via trading to be green on everyone else) I've been thinking could pay for eg an all inclusive family holiday to the Dominican Republic - but locking in less than that could be good too.
    It’s a difficult call with so much money at stake, and as you suggest could be a huge personal reward at the end of the day.

    My instinct would be to lay off slowly while Sunak is odds-against, and watch how the contest develops. Ideally you want to get to about £2k win on Truss, vs £3.5k win on Sunak - then your discussion becomes where to take the holiday, rather than whether or not to take it at all.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,535
    ping said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Evened up a little bit, still greener on Sunak but I'm going to leave things there.

    Regardless of how it goes, many thanks to Mr. Roberts for an excellent tip that opened up a large swathe of trading possibility.

    Thanks.

    I'm wondering whether I should balance my book either a bit, or entirely? I could lock in now a hefty four-figure sum either way, or should I let it ride? I'm not sure, what would people advise?
    Personally, I’d advise treating your bet as purely a value proposition. Ignore all other logic/emotion.

    The market rates Sunak a ~43% chance.

    If you think his chances are less, or approximately equal to that, then cash out. Higher than that, hold on, or increase your stake.

    Apologies if I’m stating the obvious, but most punters don’t think like this.

    Another way of looking at it is to calculate your theoretical cashout position, then apply the Kelly criterion. Would you be comfortable gambling that % of your bankroll/net assets?

    Well done on your bet, btw.
    That might be more appropriate for a regular gambler looking to maximise returns over a large number of similar bets in time but this is, more or less, a one-off aiui.
This discussion has been closed.