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How the public view the final three – politicalbetting.com
How the public view the final three – politicalbetting.com
At the moment most of the polling focus on the Conservative leadership contest has been about views of first MPs and then the Tory Party membership. The latter of course will decide between the two agreed by the parliamentary party and we should get that tomorrow afternoon.
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F*ck!
Oh well, at least it helps confirm that Johnson is wrong and we do not live in some quasi-presidential direct democracy with mandates from the people.
Go figure.
Truss, for whatever reason, seems to have become the continuity Boris candidate (despite disavowing the economic measures of the Boris government, by pretending the Chancellor could have done it without the PM's consent or something).
So on that basis she would appear to be what they want, perhaps presuming she would have the same popularity as Boris, despite not, in style or delivery, being similar to him at all.
I like some of her policies, I admire her free thinking, but my God she would crash to a dreadful defeat, she would lose the Red Wall and her Zeal-of-the-Converted Brexiteering would lose the Blue Wall
She could gift Labour a majority that would last for two terms. No
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things that can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. Or building a snowman with them in the winter. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18C, cloudy, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.
Apart from "How did the Tories dodge a bullet by not putting to the membership?"
'Who is the most likely candidate to see Labour win the next election?'
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
“a bit of a risk” is me asking for extra hot salsa on my burrito.
Making Liz Truss PM is a megacolossal risk. It could consign the Tories to one of their very worst defeats. I could see it even lead to the ignominy of losing an 80 seat majority to a Labour majority.
And that was one of Labour's better performances with that pollster!
I only worry what further damage she will do to the country in the meantime.
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate
Top tip for betting on Tory MP elections. Never underestimate the stupidity of Tory MPs.
Mordaunt seemed to play the role OK for a bit. But she was upstaged at the audition.
In short. They want Maggie back.
Not much evidence anyone else does.
When it comes to the membership that might well be different.
2.12 Liz Truss 47%
2.52 Rishi Sunak 40%
7.8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
410 Keir Starmer
530 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.08 Liz Truss 48%
2.54 Rishi Sunak 39%
7.6 Penny Mordaunt 13%
To be in final two
1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
1.24 Liz Truss 81%
4.5 Penny Mordaunt 22%
Why can’t they see it?
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
We all do it of course: 'surely everyone thinks like I do'. The issues arrises from the self-selecting nature of the party membership (similar issue with Labour).
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
https://vividmaps.com/annual-sunshine-hours-map-of-world/
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
Do Conservatives not know that the public think Truss is a duffer?
Or are they perfectly aware, but have reached the kind of been-in-power-too-long decadance where they don't care?
They are, I suspect, more of the 'this is what I believe and I need to find a way to force it through' mindset.
They wanted Kemi. It's the MPs who are putting forward Truss.
Labour were in Opposition and had to try and make themselves more popular than the Tories. The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years.
Labour were narrowly short of getting into office and elected Corbyn then kept him on for not one but two elections. Tories are already in office and are due losing as a matter of when, not if.
Finally if the Tories stand for increasing taxes on those who work to a 74 year high, in order to further bloat our welfare budget for those who don't work, then what's the point in the Tories? They deserve to lose if so.
Having said that, I'll sell my principles for £5000 it appears, so go Rishi! But I won't vote for his party at the next election.
That you have yet to succumb to this irrational optimism has sent you up considerably in my estimation (for what that’s worth).
She's already got the Mail virtually publicly masturbating. The other newspapers will fall into line faced with the "Socialist" Sunak or "woke" Mordaunt.
She wilted pretty badly in the first debate.
That didn't seem to hurt her.
Swing voters:
Liz Truss 45%
Rishi Sunak 27%
Penny Mordaunt 26%
Opinium
Heck, people sometimes seem to do that just in case they might change their minds later. Do it early in a campaign and you can switch off, no deal with thorny questions of whether who we back is right, since it doesn't matter, too late to change it now.
What, you mean like the wonderful stuff they have managed to do in the last 12 years?
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1549337977704402954?s=20&t=e2wxanFxfxdVlOnQG4lrjg
Would I want this weather all day, every day, for months on end? Hell no! But is it nice and glorious for an exception and we should it enjoy it for the precious little time we can enjoy it? Absolutely!
Its a bit like I have in-laws in the Rockies in Canada. They hate the snow, they have 6 months of it and have to clear their footpath almost daily (failure to clear the footpath outside your home will result in you being fined). However if we get snow in this country, I love it. Making snowmen with the kids is again a wonderful thing.
That which is rare, is more valuable. It applies to the weather as well as economics.
Truss will overtake Pendolino comfortably tomorrow
It seems to come down to a feeling that the JRM crowd trust her judgement more, rather than that the others are not very Brexity (notwithstanding some laughable attempts to suggest Sunak was a remainer traitor).
She voted Remain.
The other two were Brexiters long before it was fashionable.
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.
I think she has some basic competence, and I've never really gotten why she provoked such ire, but given who her most enthusiastic backers are, and how she might reward them, it is now a big worry for me.
Or turn a page on that crap with the Tories.
If they vote for Sunak I'll thank Ladbrokes and the Tories for my payout, but I'll be tempted to sign up to join the Lib Dems. I've had enough of that crap.
Con Maj 3.8
Lab Maj 4.5
When’s crossover?
End of Days stuff.
I reckon there’s still only about 30-40% chance of her going all the way to Number 10.
The question is: why should we care what Farage thinks any more?
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1549496504578105345
Unfortunately yes.
But at risk of being replaced by a reinvigorated Reform party (if they get a decent team)
But if the choice was between a party led by him and a party led by any of this lot - even Truss...
I think parties are particularly prone to it the longer they are in office, when easy choices are long gone, and there isn't a conveniently recent other government to blame (try though they will). They get lazier and lazier, they conflate their interests with the nation's over and over, which excuses any poor action, behaviour or failure, because if they don't win, that's a disaster. And they presume, ever more easily, that what they want must be what the public want.
Truss wants to be firm and has her NI Protocol Bill lined up and ready to go. 👍
Roflcopter
https://order-order.com/2022/07/19/cchqs-asap-timetable-begs-mps-to-ask-whats-the-point-in-hustings/
But, for your long term mental health and contentment, you might consider a move to the south of England, at least.... is my modest proposal
I've realised that one of the reasons I've been - generally, if not always - in a very benign mood these last three months is because I have spent it in almost total sunshine. From Nashville to New Orleans to Turkey to Greece to Tbilisi to Armenia to Montenegro, almost every morning I have woken up to warm or hot blue skies and wow, it improves the mood.
You might wake up feeling blue or groggy or frustrated or angsty but then you take your coffee and you shuffle out into the bright sweet light and you can't help thinking, your face upturned, Hey, nice day, life's not so bad, what will the morning bring?
Simple as that. I'm sure this trick doesn't work for everyone but boy it works for me