Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet. In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third. If she makes the top two I suspect she wins. But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet. Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.
If so, shall we have a sweep on how many headers we get from OGH telling us he backed Sunak at 250/1? ;-)
I hope will have the good grace each time to acknowledge who put him on to the bet.... (not me, I hasten to add!)
That's possible. There is a core of Sunak supporters (Hancock, williamson etc) who could be replied upon to be reliable enough to switch votes on demand to another candidate as required. They will generally be ex-Minister types who hope for another chance .
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.
FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.
Yes. Which is why I cautioned against assuming Truss makes the two. We know who the frontrunner would rather face with the membership. He got rid of his worst nightmare today. Those extra votes didn't all come from TT. He could polish off the next worst tomorrow. Dangerous game, mind.
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon the country will do the same.
Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
The other value bet is, despite what they’re all saying now, election in 2022/3. Laying 2024 or later at 1.26-1.29 looks like value to me.
One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument. I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point. One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
NW England.
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
I believe I have diagnosed your problem
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
Welcome back. I agree with this. I would rather a planet where Lancashire is gloomy and cold but there are multiple sunny warm places to which one can escape or indeed migrate, than a planet where it’s 37C in Lancashire and 49.8C in Canada, and your favourite escape in the Med is unpleasantly humid because the sea temperatures are 28C in mid July.
I do think weather makes a huge difference to wellbeing though. London is about as cold and Northern as I could cope with, but even here it’s too cloudy. Nantes I think, or Île de Ré.
The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.
If Truss loses big the Francois/JRM wing would likely be most of what is left, the redwall MPs and most of the remaining London MPs having lost their seats to Labour and most of the Home counties Tory Remain seats going to the LDs
Though unlike the Canadian Progressive Conservatives the Tories would likely move further right in opposition to avoid being replaced by the populist right Reform, even if that puts them out of contention for government for a period
First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
I don't really see how. I know she is a born again Brexiter, but have the others actually differed from her in any way on Brexit issues?
It seems to come down to a feeling that the JRM crowd trust her judgement more, rather than that the others are not very Brexity (notwithstanding some laughable attempts to suggest Sunak was a remainer traitor).
Sunak wants to be "cooperative" with the EU over Northern Ireland. 👎
Truss wants to be firm and has her NI Protocol Bill lined up and ready to go. 👍
A fight with the EU as winter approaches - that may not be the greatest plan....
Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
It’s notable that several likely Conservative voters here have developed a new appreciation for Truss, ever since … this afternoon when she became favourite. (Previously, I think Barty was her only enthusiast.)
That you have yet to succumb to this irrational optimism has sent you up considerably in my estimation (for what that’s worth).
Indeed, I've been a Truss fan for many years. Especially since I met her (just the once, pre-referendum) as part of a discussion on Economics. I'd also met then-Chancellor Osborne the same day, but I was already a big fan of his and like TSE I still am, but for Truss I came away from meeting her with a much improved opinion of her and have held it since.
As I've said many times, if the greatest criticism of a politician who has been at the front of British politics for a decade now, is that she once said "pork markets" weirdly, then that's not a bad record to have. There's normally for any leading politician a list of indiscretions as to why they'd be bad, for Truss its just that she sometimes speaks oddly - especially a decade ago.
That's possible. There is a core of Sunak supporters (Hancock, williamson etc) who could be replied upon to be reliable enough to switch votes on demand to another candidate as required. They will generally be ex-Minister types who hope for another chance .
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.
FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.
We know who the frontrunner would rather face with the membership.
We do? Judging by the majority of checking with them the answer would be 'no one'. And Mordaunt is more untested, whereas Truss has 8 years at the top to draw on. She has a bit more substance.
I'll grant polls did not back up my opinion that Truss had a decent second debate, but Sunak's attempts to rattle her about being a former LD were limp to say the least. It works as a jibe on the internet, but she can face it down easy yet it appears to be his only card (since the selectorate don't care about economics - and why would they? Most of us don't understand it).
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
That's possible. There is a core of Sunak supporters (Hancock, williamson etc) who could be replied upon to be reliable enough to switch votes on demand to another candidate as required. They will generally be ex-Minister types who hope for another chance .
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.
FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.
Yes, and Truss did so well last round that it's difficult to explain other than the Sunak camp were desperate to stop Badenoch and asked TT to go for her and not him, plus added a few of their own, because they just weren't sure.
That makes Rishi certain for the final two and also that he could run Penny close for his opponent too.
One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument. I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point. One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
NW England.
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
I believe I have diagnosed your problem
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
“sun-drenched Melbourne”
Roflcopter
Melbourne, sunshine hours per year: 2,350
Manchester, sunshine hours per year:1,400
That's QUITE a difference. And of course many of those Melbourne sun-hours will be hot glorious sun, good for swimming and surfing. Er, not so much in Manchester...
I know its just slapping a smile on for a photo, but several of those people told Boris he had to quit, even as they lacked the courage to quit themselves. The one on his right did so right after a promotion, and the one on the left is backing the candidate Boris would move heaven and earth to undermine.
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
They'll have 6 weeks of this - even a politician's ability to avoid talking about difficult subjects will be tested.
Many of KB's public backers were Red Wallers. I think the assumption they will leap to Truss - given her dire stats - is a bit overreached. It will split more evenly.
I agree it's a risk for Sunak but, unless the rules suddenly change, he's going to have to face someone and that will involve an element of risk. If he is at effectively 130 pre-transfers, then he's pretty much home and dry bar a total fuck up. To put it another way, where's the greater risk - letting Truss getting into the final two or letting PM progress?
That's possible. There is a core of Sunak supporters (Hancock, williamson etc) who could be replied upon to be reliable enough to switch votes on demand to another candidate as required. They will generally be ex-Minister types who hope for another chance .
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.
FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.
Yes. Which is why I cautioned against assuming Truss makes the two. We know who the frontrunner would rather face with the membership. He got rid of his worst nightmare today. Those extra votes didn't all come from TT. He could polish off the next worst tomorrow. Dangerous game, mind.
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
The problem is all those areas beyond Ukraine and Putin have huge problems created by the last 12 years of Tory Governments.
Law and Order - criminal courts buildings are falling apart and barristers are on strike. Police - still aren't at 2010 numbers Energy Security - can't be fixed this year and Martin Lewis is quoting a 68% price increase for October Government Finances - Screwed Public sector pay rises - minimal and see my posts regarding the long term impact of today's school funding announcements. The same will be true for many others parts of the public sector.
I could see either Sunak or Mordaunt causing problems for Labour at the next GE .
But Truss I just can’t see it. No charisma , no empathy , likely to continue the divisive politics of the last 3 years , she wants to play to the Brexit gallery but I just don’t think EU bashing is going to work now .
She’s the worst of all worlds . Won’t level up and will piss off many of those Tories in Lib Dem target seats .
The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.
If Truss loses big the Francois/JRM wing would likely be most of what is left, the redwall MPs and most of the remaining London MPs having lost their seats to Labour and most of the Home counties Tory Remain seats going to the LDs
Ha, yes, look away for a minute and come back to find HYUFD has reached his kiloton with the HYUFD equivalent of a hefty cover drive. I feel we all ought to stand and applaud.
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
They'll have 6 weeks of this - even a politician's ability to avoid talking about difficult subjects will be tested.
Bozo managed it without problems although it may be wise to find where the fridges are..
I could see either Sunak or Mordaunt causing problems for Labour at the next GE .
But Truss I just can’t see it. No charisma , no empathy , likely to continue the divisive politics of the last 3 years , she wants to play to the Brexit gallery but I just don’t think EU bashing is going to work now .
She’s the worst of all worlds . Won’t level up and will piss off many of those Tories in Lib Dem target seats .
For the ERG and therefore presumably their chosen leader, like the Corbynites, the real enemy always seems to be on their own benches.
Quick observation - if Sunak did organise the voting patterns tonight, has there ever been a politician who has inflicted so much misery on the country as Gavin Williamson?
He made sure May got elected, was shite in his jobs, and now has manipulated (maybe) the leadership contest to ensure a truly uninspiring selection of candidates.
Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet. In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third. If she makes the top two I suspect she wins. But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet. Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.
People are jumping the gun giving this to Truss. Her total is inflated and Sunaks deflated by tactical voting. The unwind will boost him and depress her in the ballot tomorrow.
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
They'll have 6 weeks of this - even a politician's ability to avoid talking about difficult subjects will be tested.
What's the betting they spend the entire time having circular arguments about whether we can afford to take a penny off income tax now or in 2024, and where transwomen should and shouldn't be allowed to take a piss?
Just listened to the spectator “hustings” with all three candidates.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon recon the country will do the same. Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
It’s really noticeable. Rishi is like a 3rd rate politician of the 99s. The rest are so much worse, and they really aren’t talking about anything most people care about. Not even Tory classics like law and order and policing, which is currently shit. Or even energy security and Putin, surely the most existential of all subjects. They’re not even talking about Brexit FFS, THE flagship policy and raison d’être of the entire party.
They'll have 6 weeks of this - even a politician's ability to avoid talking about difficult subjects will be tested.
Bozo managed it without problems although it may be wise to find where the fridges are..
Yes, but that was journalists and opponents trying to pin him down, whilst his own ranks could deflect from it. Here there will be no hiding as there won't be loyal members to defend not answering - they are the ones who want answers.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
People are jumping the gun giving this to Truss. Her total is inflated and Sunaks deflated by tactical voting. The unwind will boost him and depress her in the ballot tomorrow.
Quick observation - if Sunak did organise the voting patterns tonight, has there ever been a politician who has inflicted so much misery on the country as Gavin Williamson?
He made sure May got elected, was shite in his jobs, and now has manipulated (maybe) the leadership contest to ensure a truly uninspiring selection of candidates.
He is the Josef Goebbels of the Tory party.
Don't forget, he also helped Boris Johnson win the leadership contest in 2019.
As a party member I am annoyed that I don’t have Kemi in the last two. She seemed to be the type of leader I could get enthused about. Now I have Rishi (wife too rich), Penny (Walter Mitty Boris Lite) and Liz (slightly strange) to choose from. My kids liked Kemi too but now say there’s no point because Labour will walk it. Sigh.
She was a mirage. Appearing like a blank slate people could project their fantasies on to.
People are jumping the gun giving this to Truss. Her total is inflated and Sunaks deflated by tactical voting. The unwind will boost him and depress her in the ballot tomorrow.
On the other hand her total looked lower than was expected in the last round, given the Braverman endorsement.
Quick observation - if Sunak did organise the voting patterns tonight, has there ever been a politician who has inflicted so much misery on the country as Gavin Williamson?
He made sure May got elected, was shite in his jobs, and now has manipulated (maybe) the leadership contest to ensure a truly uninspiring selection of candidates.
He is the Josef Goebbels of the Tory party.
Don't forget, he also helped Boris Johnson win the leadership contest in 2019.
People are jumping the gun giving this to Truss. Her total is inflated and Sunaks deflated by tactical voting. The unwind will boost him and depress her in the ballot tomorrow.
On the leadership, yes. In general, lay Conservative majority looks to be the best value. It has become less likely with every day of the campaign.
I don’t know why Barty Bobbins doesn’t move to the USA.
All the things he likes - hot weather, housing sprawl, over-reliance on cars, and a marked libertarianism - are here in spades.
Warrington - not so much.
It also has racism, xenophobia, disrespect for women, a lack of cricket and American "beer" - so plenty I dislike too.
We can want to embrace the best from the rest of the world, without thinking that everything we do must be the best by default and there's no lessons that can be learnt.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
Most of the actual business is done in Cabinet sub-committees.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
Most of the actual business is done in Cabinet sub-committees.
Why bother with Cabinet as a construct then, beyond patronage.
Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet. In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third. If she makes the top two I suspect she wins. But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet. Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.
Skeletons in the closet! (I hope Truss has them.)
Her marital infidelity hasn’t been mentioned recently?
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
The optimum team size is 4-8 and is there any good reason apart from political convenience not to keep Cabinet at that level.?
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
The process of composting generates heat. Large piles of compost generate more heat than they can dump through radiating it to the environment (heat generation scales with mass, so size cubed, radiative losses only scale with surface area, size squared, roughtly), so a big enough compost heap can spontaneously catch fire.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
I like pictures of Cabinet meetings in progress as it shows they all have little nameplates in front of them.
I know its probably so they sit in the right place, but I like to think even they need help remembering who the heck the Levelling Up secretary is (Greg Clark, as it happens).
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
The process of composting generates heat. Large piles of compost generate more heat than they can dump through radiating it to the environment (heat generation scales with mass, so size cubed, radiative losses only scale with surface area, size squared, roughtly), so a big enough compost heap can spontaneously catch fire.
Haystacks of old too, if not properly dried before stacking.
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
The process of composting generates heat. Large piles of compost generate more heat than they can dump through radiating it to the environment (heat generation scales with mass, so size cubed, radiative losses only scale with surface area, size squared, roughtly), so a big enough compost heap can spontaneously catch fire.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
The optimum team size is 4-8 and is there any good reason apart from political convenience not to keep Cabinet at that level.?
I actually will defend going larger for political convenience. Managing the politics of the governing party should not be the overriding consideration, but all parties are coalitions, and a PM needs to be able to handle them.
Just look at Boris - he could not, and it was that, not any governing scandals, which ruined him.
People are jumping the gun giving this to Truss. Her total is inflated and Sunaks deflated by tactical voting. The unwind will boost him and depress her in the ballot tomorrow.
On the other hand her total looked lower than was expected in the last round, given the Braverman endorsement.
Looks oddly photoshopped. What's going on with her chin?
When you see them like that you realise Cabinet is far far too big. It should be slimmed down to 10 permanent members and others invited as and when appropriate for their portfolios. No wonder we are tending towards a presidential system, you’re not going to get real debate nor too many dissenters with that many people round the table.
The optimum team size is 4-8 and is there any good reason apart from political convenience not to keep Cabinet at that level.?
Indeed, one reason the 2010-15 Government was so effective was having the "quad" being the main decision makers, not the full Cabinet.
Raab comes out of it all best I think. Patel looks good I think, blurry photo. Liz Liz Liz.
Nice one for history though as this will easily be the worst Cabinet of utter no marks and make weights in political history and led of course by the worst PM.
It's funny how we perceive weather in other countries. It can be very different to reality.
I am painfully aware - as it affects my mood - as to the sunshine hours in different parts of the world. It has driven much of my life, and my endless wanderings. I am always that small boy trying to escape another drizzly day in the rolling Welsh Marches. Fuck knows how psycho I'd be if I'd grown up in grey suburban Manchester or - God help me - the stygian hell of fucking central belt Scotland
Europe has less sun than the USA, much of Asia can be surprisingly overcast, endless sun can have a bleakness of its own (people who live in Luxor get their own version of SAD, but they are depressed by too much heat, light and sun)
Nonetheless I know what climate suits me, it is the coastal Med in summer, with mountains behind. Spend winters in Bangkok and spring and June in London. Maybe a short jaunt to the USA for Fall. Perfect!
This might explain why Truss is leading the membership vote.
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, controlling immigration and combating the Woke agenda
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
The process of composting generates heat. Large piles of compost generate more heat than they can dump through radiating it to the environment (heat generation scales with mass, so size cubed, radiative losses only scale with surface area, size squared, roughtly), so a big enough compost heap can spontaneously catch fire.
Thanks. Always rely on someone on PB to be an expert on the most obscure of one's idle musings.
One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument. I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point. One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?
I don't want a street, just a vague
idea
NW England.
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
I believe I have diagnosed your problem
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
“sun-drenched Melbourne”
Roflcopter
Melbourne, sunshine hours per year: 2,350
Manchester, sunshine hours per year:1,400
That's QUITE a difference. And of course many of those Melbourne sun-hours will be hot glorious sun, good for swimming and surfing. Er, not so much in Manchester...
Not as many of those hours as you might think if you haven’t lived there. Intermittent sunny spells during 4 seasons in a day
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
My (limited) understanding is that compost heaps (and grass cuttings/hay bales) are high risk for catching fire because they’re decaying organic matter, which releases heat. A lot of heat. Enough to catch fire. Oddly, a reasonably high water content can fuel the decaying process.
Not sure how high temperatures in the surrounding atmosphere interact with the process. I’m sure there will be an expert on PB who can enlighten us. What happened to @TwistedFireStopper ?
This might explain why Truss is leading the membership vote.
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, reducing immigration and combating the Woke agenda
It's funny how we perceive weather in other countries. It can be very different to reality.
I am painfully aware - as it affects my mood - as to the sunshine hours in different parts of the world. It has driven much of my life, and my endless wanderings. I am always that small boy trying to escape another drizzly day in the rolling Welsh Marches. Fuck knows how psycho I'd be if I'd grown up in grey suburban Manchester or - God help me - the stygian hell of fucking central belt Scotland
Probably, but the stygian hell of fucking central belt Scotland was pretty bearable the last couple of days, unlike Hades down south.
More constructively, have we got some sort of sunshine x temperature grid/matrix so that one can consult to find somewhere that meets the optimal meeting point of sunny but not insanely hot?
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
My (limited) understanding is that compost heaps (and grass cuttings/hay bales) are high risk for catching fire because they’re decaying organic matter, which releases heat. A lot of heat. Enough to catch fire. Oddly, a reasonably high water content can fuel the decaying process.
Not sure how high temperatures in the surrounding atmosphere interact with the process. I’m sure there will be an expert on PB who can enlighten us. What happened to @TwistedFireStopper ?
He popped up a few weeks back. Retired and living the van life.
One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument. I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point. One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?
I don't want a street, just a vague
idea
NW England.
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
I believe I have diagnosed your problem
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
“sun-drenched Melbourne”
Roflcopter
Melbourne, sunshine hours per year: 2,350
Manchester, sunshine hours per year:1,400
That's QUITE a difference. And of course many of those Melbourne sun-hours will be hot glorious sun, good for swimming and surfing. Er, not so much in Manchester...
Not as many of those hours as you might think if you haven’t lived there. Intermittent sunny spells during 4 seasons in a day
My Auntie L lived there in Melbourne, for decades. In the end she fled - for many reasons, but one of them was because she hated the incredible daily twists in climate, from Antarctic cold to baking heat, and back again, in 24 hours
She ended up, ironically, living in Glasgow, which climate she also hated. But by then it was too late. Bless her. And RIP
It is surprisingly important to live in a climate you like. For some people, at least
This might explain why Truss is leading the membership vote.
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, controlling immigration and combating the Woke agenda
They seem to have drawn the wrong lessons from facing Brown, EdM and Corbyn. Like Hague, IDS, Howard did for Labour. Time's up. Your priorities don't matter of you're in Opposition. 2,.3,4 and 5 are way down your swing voter's list. Cost of Living is number 1 by a country mile.
OT. Why do compost heaps catch fire? And why do they spread so catastrophically?
The breakdown of the organic matter by fungi and bacteria is exothermic (releases energy). In hot weather they can dry out and get warn enough to catch fire.
Quick observation - if Sunak did organise the voting patterns tonight, has there ever been a politician who has inflicted so much misery on the country as Gavin Williamson?
He made sure May got elected, was shite in his jobs, and now has manipulated (maybe) the leadership contest to ensure a truly uninspiring selection of candidates.
And we don't know whether the fireplaces he sold were any good either!?!
This might explain why Truss is leading the membership vote.
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, controlling immigration and combating the Woke agenda
The British people are now so many helpless passengers on a doomed flight; the Conservative Party membership being the drunk, suicidal pilot at the controls.
It's funny how we perceive weather in other countries. It can be very different to reality.
I am painfully aware - as it affects my mood - as to the sunshine hours in different parts of the world. It has driven much of my life, and my endless wanderings. I am always that small boy trying to escape another drizzly day in the rolling Welsh Marches. Fuck knows how psycho I'd be if I'd grown up in grey suburban Manchester or - God help me - the stygian hell of fucking central belt Scotland
Europe has less sun than the USA, much of Asia can be surprisingly overcast, endless sun can have a bleakness of its own (people who live in Luxor get their own version of SAD, but they are depressed by too much heat, light and sun)
Nonetheless I know what climate suits me, it is the coastal Med in summer, with mountains behind. Spend winters in Bangkok and spring and June in London. Maybe a short jaunt to the USA for Fall. Perfect!
Scotland doesn't strike me (having lived in Sussex) as particularly sunless, just colder. When I studied with a lot of international students, the Germans were delighted with the weather, by turns sunny, cloudy, and rainy, because they had constant overcast grey cloud.
This might explain why Truss is leading the membership vote.
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, controlling immigration and combating the Woke agenda
The British people are now so many helpless passengers on a doomed flight; the Conservative Party membership being the drunk, suicidal pilot at the controls.
Comments
Still shite though.
Which is why I cautioned against assuming Truss makes the two. We know who the frontrunner would rather face with the membership. He got rid of his worst nightmare today. Those extra votes didn't all come from TT. He could polish off the next worst tomorrow.
Dangerous game, mind.
Little new, but what really struck me was how much (of importance to the general public) wasn’t discussed.
All three of them had almost nothing to say on the NHS, cost of living, public sector pay, the housing crisis, intergenerational unfairness. Very few new ideas on how to actually address the country’s problems.
Sunak came across, to me, as the best of a bad bunch. Up against any of them, I’ll almost certainly vote Starmer. I recon the country will do the same.
Lab most seats should be 1.5, Lab maj, value above 2/1, imo.
The other value bet is, despite what they’re all saying now, election in 2022/3. Laying 2024 or later at 1.26-1.29 looks like value to me.
I do think weather makes a huge difference to wellbeing though. London is about as cold and Northern as I could cope with, but even here it’s too cloudy. Nantes I think, or Île de Ré.
Winning election. Huge fall.
Nads’ uti glower is good though.
As I've said many times, if the greatest criticism of a politician who has been at the front of British politics for a decade now, is that she once said "pork markets" weirdly, then that's not a bad record to have. There's normally for any leading politician a list of indiscretions as to why they'd be bad, for Truss its just that she sometimes speaks oddly - especially a decade ago.
Yawn.
I'll grant polls did not back up my opinion that Truss had a decent second debate, but Sunak's attempts to rattle her about being a former LD were limp to say the least. It works as a jibe on the internet, but she can face it down easy yet it appears to be his only card (since the selectorate don't care about economics - and why would they? Most of us don't understand it).
That makes Rishi certain for the final two and also that he could run Penny close for his opponent too.
Manchester, sunshine hours per year:1,400
That's QUITE a difference. And of course many of those Melbourne sun-hours will be hot glorious sun, good for swimming and surfing. Er, not so much in Manchester...
It cannot be a jolly atmosphere to say the least.
I agree it's a risk for Sunak but, unless the rules suddenly change, he's going to have to face someone and that will involve an element of risk. If he is at effectively 130 pre-transfers, then he's pretty much home and dry bar a total fuck up. To put it another way, where's the greater risk - letting Truss getting into the final two or letting PM progress?
Law and Order - criminal courts buildings are falling apart and barristers are on strike.
Police - still aren't at 2010 numbers
Energy Security - can't be fixed this year and Martin Lewis is quoting a 68% price increase for October
Government Finances - Screwed
Public sector pay rises - minimal and see my posts regarding the long term impact of today's school funding announcements. The same will be true for many others parts of the public sector.
But Truss I just can’t see it. No charisma , no empathy , likely to continue the divisive politics of the last 3 years , she wants to play to the Brexit gallery but I just don’t think EU bashing is going to work now .
She’s the worst of all worlds . Won’t level up and will piss off many of those Tories in Lib Dem target seats .
I feel we all ought to stand and applaud.
He made sure May got elected, was shite in his jobs, and now has manipulated (maybe) the leadership contest to ensure a truly uninspiring selection of candidates.
He is the Josef Goebbels of the Tory party.
All the things he likes - hot weather, housing sprawl, over-reliance on cars, and a marked libertarianism - are here in spades.
Warrington - not so much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight#Climate
London gets around 1,700 hours
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London#Climate
Grenoble, in the South of France, where my mother grew up gets around 2,000 hours
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenoble#Climate
It's funny how we perceive weather in other countries. It can be very different to reality.
(although that wasn't as bad as May).
In general, lay Conservative majority looks to be the best value.
It has become less likely with every day of the campaign.
Why do compost heaps catch fire?
And why do they spread so catastrophically?
We can want to embrace the best from the rest of the world, without thinking that everything we do must be the best by default and there's no lessons that can be learnt.
In reality
Liverpool: 1450
Paris: 1990
Or Glasgow the same as Frankfurt
Glasgow: 1200
Frankfurt: 1650
https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-portrait-mandrill-showing-face-genitals-1566400336
I know its probably so they sit in the right place, but I like to think even they need help remembering who the heck the Levelling Up secretary is (Greg Clark, as it happens).
Just look at Boris - he could not, and it was that, not any governing scandals, which ruined him.
Europe has less sun than the USA, much of Asia can be surprisingly overcast, endless sun can have a bleakness of its own (people who live in Luxor get their own version of SAD, but they are depressed by too much heat, light and sun)
Nonetheless I know what climate suits me, it is the coastal Med in summer, with mountains behind. Spend winters in Bangkok and spring and June in London. Maybe a short jaunt to the USA for Fall. Perfect!
Only 3% of Tory members put electability top of what they want in a new leader. That was behind personality, delivering Brexit, cutting tax and spending, controlling immigration and combating the Woke agenda
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1549410127983378433?s=20&t=BtBxpZRxu8h3dKoZP3f9_Q
Not sure how high temperatures in the surrounding atmosphere interact with the process. I’m sure there will be an expert on PB who can enlighten us. What happened to @TwistedFireStopper ?
More constructively, have we got some sort of sunshine x temperature grid/matrix so that one can consult to find somewhere that meets the optimal meeting point of sunny but not insanely hot?
She ended up, ironically, living in Glasgow, which climate she also hated. But by then it was too late. Bless her. And RIP
It is surprisingly important to live in a climate you like. For some people, at least
They do know that somebody went home and showed these photos to their kids, who laughed themselves to sleep at the new Ministry of Silly Poses?
Like Hague, IDS, Howard did for Labour.
Time's up. Your priorities don't matter of you're in Opposition.
2,.3,4 and 5 are way down your swing voter's list.
Cost of Living is number 1 by a country mile.
The British people are now so many helpless passengers on a doomed flight; the Conservative Party membership being the drunk, suicidal pilot at the controls.
At least steel-built Truss wouldn't say something like that, if I can find anything to say positive.